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Citi expects 2023 PHL inflation to average 5.3%

PHILSTAR

CITIGROUP, INC. (Citi) expects Philippine headline inflation to average 5.3% this year, above the central bank’s 2-4% target, with food prices remaining elevated and subject to further upside due to weather disturbances.

“Our expectation for inflation this year is still pretty high at 5.3% on average, before lowering to about 3.3% next year,” Citi Economist for Thailand and the Philippines Nalin Chutchotitham said in a media briefing on Wednesday.

The bank sees inflation at 7.1% in the first quarter, 5.9% in the second, 4.9% in the third, and 3.6% in the fourth quarter.

Ms. Chutchotitham noted that the main factors driving the estimate are the continued pass-through of higher production costs in 2022 into 2023, import dependency in certain food items, and robust domestic demand, causing inflation to broaden towards services as well as goods.

“There are still some concerns about agricultural production and also potential severe weather impacting agricultural production projections,” she added.

Ms. Chutchotitham also noted that the bank is also keeping an eye on how food inflation reacts to strong domestic demand.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will be closely watching inflation, Citi noted, with the central bank expected to hike rates by 25 basis points (bps) in the next policy setting meeting in mid-February. Monetary authorities have downplayed the need for any further “jumbo” rate hikes.

The BSP hiked benchmark rates by 350 bps in 2022, bringing its key rate to a 14-year high of 5.5%, from a record low of 2% in 2021. The next meeting is scheduled for Feb. 16.

Ms. Chutchotitham said Citi expects the BSP to hike rates by only 50 bps this year, bringing the key rate to 6%. It expects this to happen within the first half, she added.

Citi sees economic growth this year slowing to 6.2% from 2022’s 7.6%, due to higher financing costs and expectations of a global slowdown.

The 2022 reading was the highest since 1976 amid robust domestic demand, the Philippine Statistics Authority said.

Going forward, Citi expects the BSP to bring policy rates to above 4% by the end of 2024, which will help ease overall financing costs.

Ms. Chutchotitham expects the Philippines to continue its rapid growth trajectory from last year.

Gross domestic product in the fourth quarter expanded 7.2%, against the 7.6% posted in the third quarter and 7.8% a year earlier.

“As you can see from the momentum of gross domestic product over the past few quarters, we can see that household spending remains well supported by the strong employment growth,” Ms. Chutchotitham said.

“We do also see the younger population supporting overall spending and labor income growth,” she added.

The expected easing in inflation, as well as the revival of tourism, remittances, investment and public spending will be the main drivers of the growth forecast for this year, Ms. Chutchotitham said. — Aaron Michael C. Sy

BIR to allow more transactions via online portal in late January

THE Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) said it will allow taxpayers to conduct more transactions online late this month.

Individuals will be permitted to update their information or applications through the online registration and update system (ORUS) starting Jan. 23, according to a memorandum circular.

Through ORUS, taxpayers can update their registration information with regard to opting for the 8% income tax on gross sales, submit applications to change their accounting period, register for or add new tax incentives, and change or update contact information and the identities of shareholders, among others.

They may also use the system to seek secondary registrations with regard to permits to use loose-leaf books, and to register their computerized accounting systems.

ORUS will also allow users to submit applications to close or de-register businesses and cancel taxpayer identification number.

In a separate memorandum circular, the BIR also encouraged taxpayers habitually engaged in the sale of real estate to use its web-based system.

The electronic one-time transaction system aims to cut down on the manual filing of returns and payment of taxes, as well as other applications.

“They are also encouraged to pay electronically through the available e-payment channels of the bureau,” it added. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

PHL pet food demand seen rising to $434M

PET FOOD demand in the Philippines is expected to rise 9% in 2023 in line with growing pet ownership, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said.

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in Manila projected the Philippine pet food market at $434 million this year in its Global Agricultural Information Network report.

“As pets became more popular household companions, especially during the pandemic, pet ownership and pet food sales have grown immensely over the past five years,” it said.

The dry dog food market was expected to grow 9% in 2023, it said. The wet cat food segment, on the other hand, is expected to grow 13%.

Food products for birds, fish, and small mammals have been posting “minimal growth” with the market for these products averaging $4 million a year since 2017, the FAS said. 

The FAS said that the Philippines was the ninth-largest market for US dog and cat food products in 2021. It was the seventh-largest US agricultural export market.

“Dog and cat food exports to the Philippines showed immense growth in 2021 and are expected to grow in 2023. The majority of imported dog and cat food originates in Thailand, the US, and Europe,” the FAS said.

“Though more local manufacturers recently showed interest in selling pet food, most pure-breed pet owners prefer imported pet food,” it added.

Pet food brands now have online retail platforms and the emergence of pet store chains “present opportunities for product launches of new and imported pet food brands.”

According to a 2021 Rakuten survey, Philippine dog ownership was the highest in Asia at 67% of households; cat ownership was second-highest at 43%.

The Philippine Canine Club, Inc. estimates the number of dogs in the Philippines, regardless of breed, at 10.8 million in 2020. It recorded 40% growth in puppy registrations in 2021. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera

PHL to increase production of Grade-A durian after China export deal

BW FILE PHOTO

THE Department of Agriculture (DA) said it will expand production of export-grade durian after a supply deal was arranged with China.

In a statement, the DA said 65 producers in the south are currently engaged in durian cultivation and hopes to “strengthen the production of Grade-A durian through the Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI) and the High Value Crops Development Program.”

“The DA has been overseeing the ongoing registration of exporters, packing facility operators, and growers of durian, with five licensed exporters, six licensed packing facility operators, and 65 registered durian growers registered in the Davao Region, to date,” it added.

The DA said it will train quarantine officers, inspectors, and others involved in durian pest and disease control.

The training is focused on meeting Chinese import standards for fresh durian.

The durian trade with China, it said, is expected to generate “at least 10,000 direct and indirect jobs.”

China and the Philippines signed the Protocol of the Phytosanitary Requirements for Export of Fresh Durians from the Philippines to China during President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.’s recent visit to Beijing.

The deal was valued at $260 million at a volume of 50,000 metric tons of fresh durian.

“Because they are opening their trade to imports of durian and other agricultural products from the Philippines… we can redress the imbalance in our imports and exports from China,” Mr. Marcos has said.

Initially, the durian will be sourced from registered farms in Davao City, Davao del Sur, and North Cotabato, which are the fruit’s major production areas.

The DA will also explore potential sites to expand durian planting in order to sustain export volumes.

Chinese companies that have already purchased durian under the arrangement include Dole (Shanghai) Fruits and Vegetables Trading Co., Ltd./ Dole China and Prestige International Co. Ltd.

Shanghai Goodfarmer Group, and the Dashang Group have also committed to purchase durian. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera

NCR retail price growth in Dec. steady vs Nov., still highest since 2008

BW FILE PHOTO

THE December price growth in retail goods in Metro Manila was 6%, unchanged from the two preceding months and still the highest reading in 14 years, led by the food segment, according to preliminary data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).

The PSA said on Wednesday that the general retail price index (GRPI) in the National Capital Region (NCR) was still significantly higher than the year-earlier level of 2.1%.

December marked the third consecutive month that retail inflation hit the 6% level. These months’ readings were the highest since the 6.8% posted in November 2008.

General Retail Price Index in the National Capital Region

This brought full-year retail inflation to an average of 4.5%, more than double the 2% pace in 2021. With 2012 prices as the base, 2022 retail inflation was the highest since the 6.6% recorded in 2008.

Union Bank of the Philippines, Inc. Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion said in an e-mail that GRPI data track the price movements seen in the December consumer price index (CPI).

“The rise of prices in general has contributed to changes in retail prices bought by end-consumers. In 2021, movements of the GRPI were characterized by either small rises or minuscule declines,” Mr. Asuncion said.

Headline inflation in December, which uses 2018 prices, also hit a 14-year high of 8.1% as food grew more costly. The December outcome was higher than the 8% logged in November and the 3.1% in December 2021.

Inflation averaged a 14-year high of 5.8% in 2022, in line with the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) 2022 inflation forecast but breaching the bank’s 2% to 4% target range.

“Food inflation was the biggest source of movement for headline inflation, and it is not surprising that GRPI of food for NCR is also the highest,” Mr. Asuncion said.

The statistics agency said food price growth accelerated to 9.9% in December from 9.7% in November. Also posting higher growth was crude materials, inedible except fuels (4.7% from 4.3%).

Price growth eased in manufactured goods classified chiefly by materials (3.4% from 3.5%); beverages and tobacco (6.7% from 7.0%); and mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (14.3% from 15.1%).

December retail price growth was unchanged month on month in machinery and transport equipment (1.1%); miscellaneous manufactured articles (1.5%); and chemicals, including animal and vegetable oils and fats (3.5%).

“As expected for headline inflation in 2023, we do expect the GRPI to also decline,” Mr. Asuncion said.

The BSP expects headline inflation to fall within the 2-4% target range by the second half of 2023. — Ana Olivia A. Tirona

Tax refund requirements: Are they ever enough?

Is the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) inclined to approve refund claims? At a time where the government’s budget is dedicated to reviving the economy after the COVID-19 pandemic, granting tax refunds would put the agency in a pickle. However, rejecting such refund applications due to these considerations would be arbitrary on the part of the BIR.

The rules are clear. For tax refunds of unutilized excess creditable expanded withholding tax (CWT), three essential conditions must be met: (i) the timeliness of the refund application, (ii) the fact of withholding is established, and (iii) that the income upon which the taxes were withheld was included in the return of the recipient/claimant. To prove that these three conditions were satisfied, the refund application should be accompanied by complete documentary support for the BIR’s verification.

Since claims for refund are construed strictly against the taxpayer and in favor of the government, the documents supporting a CWT refund application are carefully scrutinized by the BIR. In Merck Sharp & Dohme (I.A.) LLC – Philippine Branch vs. Commissioner of Internal Revenue (CTA Case No. 9803, 25 June 2021), the BIR alleged that the instant claim for tax refund is tainted with procedural infirmity due to the taxpayer’s failure to submit complete documents in support of its administrative claim for refund. According to the BIR, taxpayers must prove compliance with both Revenue Memorandum Order (RMO) No. 53-98 and Revenue Regulations (RR) No. 2-2006 to support the validity of their claim for unutilized CWT.   

In relation to the aforementioned RMO and RR, the BIR particularly insisted that the submission of proof of actual remittance is indispensable in claims for refund or issuance of a tax credit certificate for unutilized excess CWT for purposes of proving the CWT withheld.

With the BIR holding firm on the requirements, what would count as sufficient evidence in proving tax refund claims?

RMO No. 53-98 prescribes the documents that a taxpayer is required to submit to the BIR upon audit of his tax liabilities, as well as the different mandatory audit reporting requirements to be prepared, submitted and attached to a tax audit docket by a Revenue Office. On the other hand, RR No. 2-06 prescribes the mandatory attachments of the Summary Alphalist of Withholding Agents of Income Payments Subjected to Tax Withheld as Source (SAWT) to tax returns with claimed tax credits due to CWT at source.

The Tax Court ruled that the non-submission of the documents enumerated in RMO No. 53-98 should not result in an outright denial of the tax refund claim. It is not fatal to the claim for refund since the RMO is merely a guide to revenue officers as to what documents they may require taxpayers to present during an audit. Nothing stated in the issuance would show that it was intended as a benchmark in determining the completeness of the submitted documents to support a taxpayer’s claim for tax refund.

What is more critical is that the taxpayer should be able to establish the fact of withholding through a copy of the withholding tax statement duly issued by the payor (withholding agent) to the payee, showing the amount paid and the amount of tax withheld therefrom.

The Tax Court cited the case of Commissioner of Internal Revenue vs. Philippine National Bank (G.R. No. 180290, 29 September 2014) where the Supreme Court clarified that the certificate of creditable tax withheld at source (BIR Form 2307) is the competent proof to establish the fact that taxes were withheld, and upon presentation of a withholding tax certificate complete in its relevant detail and with a written statement that it was made under the penalties of perjury, the burden of evidence shifts to the Commissioner of Internal Revenue to examine.

Further, contrary to the BIR’s claim that the proof of actual remittance should be submitted, the aforementioned Supreme Court case clarified that proof of actual remittance of the withholding tax is not a prerequisite to claim a refund of unutilized tax credits, since it is the payor-withholding agent, and not the payee-refund claimant who is vested with the responsibility of withholding and remitting income taxes.

Similar to this instant case, taxpayers are generally intent on presenting adequate proof of their claim for refund. However, if the BIR were to demand undue requirements, refund claims at the administrative level would naturally result in a denial. As taxpayers are keen to recover their losses, I hope that the BIR would conscientiously evaluate submitted documents for refund applications. At the end of the day, both the government and the taxpayer are on the same boat in seeking to revive the economy.

The views or opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Isla Lipana & Co. The content is for general information purposes only, and should not be used as a substitute for specific advice.

  

Edelweiss Chua is an assistant manager at the Tax Services department of Isla Lipana & Co., the Philippine member firm of the PwC network.

edelweiss.chua@pwc.com

General Retail Price Index in the National Capital Region

THE December price growth in retail goods in Metro Manila was 6%, unchanged from the two preceding months and still the highest reading in 14 years, led by the food segment, according to preliminary data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). Read the full story.

General Retail Price Index in the National Capital Region

Philippines shares FIDE PWD Chess Olympiad lead in Serbia

FIDE Master Sander Severino outplayed Milan Orsag in 38 moves of a Queen’s Gambit Exchange Variation to power the Philippines to a 2.5-1.5 win over the Czech Republic. — FIDE

FIDE Master Sander Severino outplayed Milan Orsag in 38 moves of a Queen’s Gambit Exchange Variation to power the Philippines to a 2.5-1.5 win over the Czech Republic and a six-country share of the lead after two rounds of the 1st FIDE Chess Olympiad for People with Disabilities in Belgrade, Serbia on Tuesday.

Mr. Severino, a former world champion for the physically disabled, used his inventiveness in outmaneuvering his bedazzled foe and gaining a positional edge for the match-clinching victory on top board.

Henry Lopez, Darry Bernardo and Cheyzer Mendoza all drew their games from boards two to four to seal the duel and a place on top alongside tournament giants India, Israel, Poland, Serbia 2 and FIDE, a team comprising of chessers from different countries.

The day before, the Filipinos, skippered by playing coach James Infiesto, shocked Uzbekistan, 3.5-.5, on wins by Messrs. Severino, Lopez and Bernardo on boards one to three and split by Mr. Mendoza on board four.

It was a massive win for the country against a nation that shocked the world by topping the World Chess Olympiad in Chennai, India last year.

The Filipinos tackle the Serbian’s second team of Mile Bjelanovic, Stefan Mitrovic, Luka Bulatovic and Vladan Petrovic in the third round at press time of this six-round tournament that chose the top 26 teams in the globe via their average rating. — Joey Villar

PHL Strong Group braces for Arakji-led Dynamo of Lebanon

WITH a perfect 3-0 card in Group A, Strong Group has already booked a ticket in the quarterfinals regardless of its last assignment against Lebanon’s Dynamo with a similar slate. — UAE BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION

UNBEATEN Strong Group braces for a possible gigantic collision against powerhouse Lebanese squads, including Al Riyadi led by ace guard Wael Arakji, in the next stage of the 32nd Dubai International Basketball Championship.

With a perfect 3-0 card in Group A, Strong Group has already booked a ticket in the quarterfinals regardless of its last assignment against Lebanon’s Dynamo with a similar slate.

The Philippine representative and Dynamo were to clash for the group lead last night (11 p.m. Manila time), serving as the team’s primer for a steeper climb in the knockout rounds.

There, the squad owned by Frank and Jacob Lao, may cross paths with other but equally formidable Lebanese squads bannered by Al Riyadi, which has a bevy of Lebanon national team players in its fold.

Joining Mr. Arakji, who is the reigning Best Point Guard in Asia after anchoring Lebanon to a runner-up finish in the Asia Cup and into the FIBA World Cup this year, are Amir Saoud, Hayk Gyokchan and ex-NBA cager AJ Majok.

Mr. Arakji also served as a thorn for Gilas Pilipinas in the previous window of the 2023 FIBA World Cup Asian Qualifiers, making it an extra spicy match-up if ever for Strong Group that also features Philippine national team campaigners led by Kevin Quiambao, Jerom Lastimosa and Lebron Lopez.

Al Riyadi is currently in top spot of Group B with a 2-0 card followed by Club Africain of Tunisia (2-1), Sports Club Beirut of Lebanon (1-1) and Sale of Morocco (0-3), which may pose problems for Strong Group in the playoffs.

“All teams are very tough,” said coach Charles Tiu, whose wards are led by former NBA campaigners and PBA imports in Shabazz Muhammad and Renaldo Balkman.

Ex-NBA champion Nick Young is also in the fray for Strong Group but he is nursing a knee injury as Mr. Tiu is banking on the steady contributions of his locals led by Messrs. Quiambao, Lastimosa and Fil-American Sedrick Barefield.

Strong Group bested the United Arab Emirates (UAE) national team, 91-87, before drubbing Libya’s Al Nasr, 93-76, and Syria’s Al Wahda, 87-61. — John Bryan Ulanday

Battle of Grandmasters kicks off in Malolos City

RAFAEL REX FELISILDA-UNSPLASH

THE COUNTRY’S top Grandmasters (GMs), a group of young guns eyeing fame and glory and the two top-notch lady woodpushers spice up the Battle of the Grandmasters chess tournament that was unveiled on Wednesday at the Malolos City Auditorium.

GMs John Paul Gomez, Darwin Laylo and Joey Antonio will try to separate the men from the boys as they battle wits with teeners International Master (IM) Daniel Quizon (19 years old), IM Michael Concio, Jr. (18) and Mark Jay Bacojo (17) as well national women’s championship top two finishers WIM Marie Antoinette San Diego and WGM Janelle Mae Frayna.

Also seeing action in the nine-round tournament staking a total cash pot of P322,000 including P100,000 to the winner courtesy of Malolos City Mayor Christian Natividad are IMs Paulo Bersamina and Jan Emmanuel Garcia.

The top-seeded Mr. Gomez was battling Mr. Concio while the second-ranked Mr. Laylo was clashing Ms. Frayna at press time.

The other opening-round duels of this event backed by the Philippine Sports Commission, National Chess Federation of the Philippines and Philippine Olympic Committee pitted Mr. San Diego with Mr. Garcia, Mr. Bersamina with Mr. Antonio, and Mr. Quizon with Mr. Bacojo.

Mr. Laylo is hoping to add another crown jewel to his title conquests in 2004 and 2006.

Mr. Quizon, for his part, is hoping to successfully defend the title he won in the last staging two years ago in Lapu Lapu, Cebu as well as to earn rating points as he chases the GM title.

For Ms. San Diego and Ms. Frayna, they hope to become the first females to win the annual event. — Joey Villar

Chelsea FC complete record signing of Benfica’s Fernandez

ARGENTINAS’s Enzo Fernandez going against Mexico’s Hector Moreno (15). — TASNIM NEWS AGENCY/WIKI COMMONS

LONDON — Premier League side Chelsea completed the signing of Argentina midfielder Enzo Fernandez from Benfica for a British record £106.8 million ($131.46 million) on Wednesday after a day of complex negotiations between the clubs.

As the clock ticked down on deadline day it appeared a deal might not be reached but a statement from Benfica confirmed that it had been agreed shortly before 2300 GMT on Tuesday.

It said Chelsea would pay the contract release fee for the 22-year-old, who has signed an eight-and-a-half year deal with the London club. It takes Chelsea’s transfer spending in January alone to more than £300 million.

Chelsea were still to officially confirm the completion of the record-breaking deal but according to Sky Sports the paperwork had been submitted on time and before the deadline.

According to media reports, Chelsea will pay the fee in several installments.

“Sport Lisboa e Benfica — Futebol, SAD informs that it has reached an agreement with Chelsea FC for the sale of all the rights of the player Enzo Fernandez, for an amount of €121,000,000,” a Benfica statement read.

The fee eclipses the £100 million Manchester City paid Aston Villa for England midfielder Jack Grealish in 2021.

Mr. Fernandez was instrumental in Argentina’s World Cup-winning campaign in Qatar, breaking into the starting lineup and playing every game, scoring one of the goals in a vital victory over Mexico in the group phase.

He capped off the tournament by bagging the Young Player Award.

Mr. Fernandez joined Benfica from Argentine side River Plate in July 2022 and has scored four goals in 29 appearances.

Benfica boss Roger Schmidt was not keen on seeing Mr. Fernandez leave but had said their hands would be tied if a club paid the player’s release clause.

Mr. Fernandez is Chelsea’s eighth recruit in the mid-season transfer window after the London club signed Mykhailo Mudryk, Benoit Badiashile, Noni Madueke, Andrey Santos, David Fofana and Malo Gusto while Joao Felix arrived on loan from Atletico Madrid. All of them are 23 or younger.

On Tuesday, Chelsea sold experienced midfielder Jorginho to Premier League leaders Arsenal for £12 million.

Mr. Fernandez’s transfer takesChelsea’s total outlay on players since last May’s takeover by an investment group led by American Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital to around £600 million as they try to rebuild their squad.

Chelsea are 10th in the Premier League, 10 points adrift of a top four spot. They next host local rivals Fulham on Friday. — Reuters

Ukraine on mission to ban Russia from 2024 Paris Games

KYIV — Ukraine hopes to secure widespread international support for banning Russian and Belarusian athletes from the Paris Olympics due to Moscow’s invasion, the sports minister said on Tuesday.

The International Olympic Committee (IOC) is open to including Russian and Belarusian athletes as neutrals at the 2024 Games and has opened a door to them competing in qualifiers.

“This is unacceptable for us,” Sports Minister and former Olympic champion Vadym Huttsait told Reuters at his offices in Kyiv, beside a wall with portraits of athletes killed in the war launched by Moscow a year ago with assistance from Belarus.

“It is impossible for us at a time when the full-scale war is going on, when our athletes, our soldiers are defending our homeland, our land, defending their homes, their families, their parents.”

The 51-year-old won an Olympic fencing team gold in 1992, was junior sabre champion in the old Soviet Union four years before that, and coached Ukraine’s winning team at the 2008 Games.

At least 220 Ukrainian athletes and coaches have died in the war, Mr. Huttsait said, with over 340 sports facilities damaged or ruined.

“Ukraine will unite with many countries in Europe and the world … and it (Russians competing) will not be allowed,” he added, saying 40 nations had given Ukrainian athletes housing and training assistance abroad during the war.

However, there has been little public support yet from other nations for an outright ban on Russians at Paris.

Moscow says its “special military operation” in Ukraine is to protect its own security, denies accusations of atrocities, and says any push to squeeze it out of global sport will fail.

‘LIVES MORE IMPORTANT THAN MEDALS’
The IOC’s previous recommendation to ban Russians and Belarusians has been applied by many sports federations.

But last week, it backed a proposal by the Olympic Council of Asia to allow them to compete in Asia, which could potentially include Olympic qualifying events.

Should that happen, Ukraine’s sporting authorities and athletes will face a “very difficult decision” whether to boycott Paris, Mr. Huttsait said.

“When we lose so many people, so many athletes, the lives of Ukrainians are more important to us than any medal at international competitions,” he said.

Ukrainian officials have turned on the IOC in recent days for promoting “violence, mass murders, destruction” with the idea of giving Russia a “platform to promote genocide.”

The IOC has called that defamatory and said such words do not promote constructive discussion.

On Tuesday, ex-boxing champion Vladimir Klitschko, brother of Kyiv’s mayor, called on IOC head Thomas Bach not to betray the Olympic spirit and become an “accomplice in this abominable war” by letting Russia compete.

Moscow is trying to turn the page on years of doping scandals after its teams were forced to compete without their flag or anthem at the Olympics and major international events. — Reuters

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