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Budget gap exceeds ceiling in 2025

Men are seen working on the rehabilitation of Epifanio de los Santos Avenue (EDSA) in Pasay City. — PHILIPPINE STAR/ RYAN BALDEMOR

By Justine Irish D. Tabile, Senior Reporter

THE NATIONAL Government’s (NG) budget deficit breached its 2025 ceiling after the main tax agencies missed their collection targets and state spending slowed amid a corruption scandal, the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) said.

Data from the Treasury released on Tuesday showed that the budget deficit widened by 4.68% or P70.5 billion to P1.58 trillion in 2025 from P1.51 trillion in 2024.

It exceeded the P1.56-trillion deficit ceiling set by the Development Budget Coordination Committee for 2025 or by P15.1 billion.

“The deficit only slightly exceeded the 2025 target by 0.97% as the 1.48% shortfall in revenue collections was partly offset by spending restraint, with actual disbursements kept below the programmed level by 0.85%,” the Treasury said.

As of end-2025, the deficit as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) settled at 5.63%, reflecting an improvement from the 5.7% in 2024 but slightly higher than the 5.5% target.

BTr data showed revenue collection inched up by 0.78% to P4.45 trillion, higher than the P4.42 trillion collected in 2024.

“The revenue uptake fell short of the revised fiscal year 2025 program of P4.52 trillion by P67 billion, as the P69.8-billion overperformance in nontax revenues was not enough to offset the P136.8-billion shortfall in tax collections,” it said.

Tax revenues, which accounted for 91.55% of the total revenues, jumped by 7.27% to P4.08 trillion in 2025, but 3.25% below the P4.52-trillion program.

Broken down, collections by the Bureau of the Internal Revenue (BIR) increased by 9.06% year on year to P3.11 trillion from P2.85 trillion collected in 2024.

“This growth was driven by stronger collections from corporate income tax, personal income tax, value-added tax (VAT), documentary stamp tax, and excise tax on tobacco,” the Treasury said.

However, BIR collections were 3.41% lower than the P3.22-trillion target for the year due to a pause in payments for infrastructure-related government contracts amid investigations into flood control projects and the temporary suspension of audit operations.

On the other hand, the Bureau of Customs’ (BoC) revenues inched up by 1.75% to P932.7 billion in 2025 from the P916.7 billion collected a year prior, amid strengthened enforcement measures and better monitoring of import declarations.

“VAT remained the principal driver of growth among the import taxes, with excise collection likewise posting year-on-year gains, effectively mitigating the significant effect of the decline in collections from import duties,” it said.

However, BoC collections were 2.72% short of its P958.7-billion target for the year due to “weaker import volumes, the suspension of rice importation, and lower global oil and commodity prices.”

Meanwhile, nontax revenues, which accounted for 8.45% of the total receipts, slumped by 39.15% to P376.3 billion in 2025 from P618.3 billion in 2024. However, it exceeded the full-year target of P306.5 billion by 22.77%.

“This drop was mainly due to the expected absence of one-time remittances received in 2024,” the BTr said. “However, full-year nontax collections surpassed the revised target… largely due to above-target performance of BTr income, particularly from its operations and dividend collections.”

The Treasury’s income declined by 17.7% to P233.2 billion last year, due to the base effect of non-recurring windfall receipts and the impact of interest rate cuts on income from investments and deposit earnings.

Despite the decline, BTr’s income still surpassed the P179.2-billion target for 2025 by 30.11% amid stronger dividend remittances, income from managed funds, higher interest income on government deposits, and guarantee fee collections.

The BTr also attributed this to the NG share from the profits of Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corp. and the Manila International Airport Authority’s terminal fees.

Revenue from other offices declined by 57.29% to P143.1 billion in 2025 but exceeded its P127.2-billion program by 12.43%.

SPENDING SLOWDOWN
Meanwhile, government expenditures edged up by 1.77% to P6.03 trillion in 2025 from P5.93 trillion a year prior. This was 0.85% below the P6.08-trillion annual program.

“The increase in spending was primarily driven by higher allocations for the National Tax Allotment to local government units, interest payments, and personnel services expenditures due to the implementation of the second tranche of salary adjustment of qualified civilian government employees,” the BTr said.

However, it said that the lower-than-program-level disbursements resulted from “proactive fiscal management, including stricter oversight on infrastructure projects linked to corruption scandals.”

Primary spending — which refers to total expenditures minus interest payments — was flat at P5.166 trillion last year from P5.162 trillion a year prior. It was also 1.3% short of the programmed P5.23 trillion.

Interest payments jumped by 13.21% to P864.1 billion in 2025 due to the “additional debt incurred to support the deficit program and the repricing of matured pandemic debt at higher prevailing rates.” This is 1.9% higher than the programmed P848 billion for 2025.

The full-year expenditure was 21.53% of GDP, slightly above the 21.45% target for 2025, but lower than the 22.41% seen in 2024.

DECEMBER DEFICIT
In December alone, the NG’s budget deficit narrowed by 4.96% to P313.2 billion from P329.5 billion in the same month in 2024.

Revenue collection declined by 3.31% to P304.3 billion in December as nontax revenues plunged by 59.31% to P25.7 billion.

This is as Treasury’s revenues fell 64.42% to P18 billion, and other offices’ revenues dropped by 38.47% to P7.6 billion.

However, tax revenues jumped by 10.73% in December to P278.6 billion as BIR collections went up by 11.08% to P204.2 billion, while Customs collections rose by 9.75% to P73.2 billion.

On the other hand, government spending slid by 4.15% to P617.4 billion in December, even as interest payments rose by 9.75% to P63.6 billion. Primary spending contracted by 5.53% to P553.8 billion.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said that last year’s budget deficit could have been wider if not for government underspending on infrastructure.

“Going forward, geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, could lead to higher inflation that could bloat government spending,” he said in a Viber message.

He said the government’s catch-up spending plan, particularly for infrastructure, could also lead to a wider budget deficit.

Union Bank of the Philippines Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion said that the National Government’s slightly higher budget deficit in 2025 “was driven mainly by weaker‑than‑expected tax collections, even as spending remained below program.” 

“Despite these pressures, disbursements were kept 0.85% below the full-year program due to tighter project oversight, indicating that the deficit expansion was rooted in revenue underperformance rather than overspending,” Mr. Asuncion said in a Viber message.

“Looking ahead to 2026, the fiscal position is expected to improve modestly, supported by recovering tax operations as administrative disruptions ease and by continued fiscal consolidation efforts, although elevated interest payments — which rose 13.21% in 2025 — will remain a structural constraint,” he added.

Marcos wants ‘special powers’ to lower fuel taxes

A gas attendant is at work at a gasoline station in Manila in this file photo. — PHILIPPINE STAR/NOEL PABALATE

By Chloe Mari A. Hufana, Reporter

PRESIDENT Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. on Tuesday said he might seek “special powers” to temporarily lower the excise tax on petroleum products, as the Middle East war threatens to trim the Philippines’ economic growth this year.

At a news briefing, the President framed the possible tax relief as a direct measure to ease the burden on Filipino consumers, who are already feeling the impact of higher fuel costs.

“We are discussing [with lawmakers], and it could be helpful to give the President the authority to reduce the excise tax on petroleum products should Dubai crude exceed $80,” Mr. Marcos said. “We’re not yet there. But if that happens, then maybe this is one tool that we will have.”

Mr. Marcos said he will discuss the proposed lower excise tax with Congress leaders, adding that it will only be a temporary measure.

“It is not going to be a permanent measure. It will be something that we will dispose of as soon as the crisis is over,” he said.

Finance Secretary Frederick D. Go said the economic team will work with Congress to give the President the authority to temporarily cut excise taxes on fuel if Dubai crude oil breaches the $80-per-barrel level.

“To be clear, this does not mean the authority will be automatically exercised. It is a precautionary measure — a ready policy tool that the President may use, if necessary, to act swiftly in protecting Filipino consumers and safeguarding the broader economy,” Mr. Go said in a statement.

Under the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) law, excise taxes on all oil and fuel products were increased in three tranches from Jan. 1, 2018 to Jan. 1, 2020.

The TRAIN law also automatically suspends the excise tax on petroleum products if the average price of oil in the global market reaches $80 per barrel in the next three months.

The Philippines imports its oil mostly from the Middle East, making it vulnerable from geopolitical tensions that would impact domestic prices upward should they persist.

GROWTH AT RISK?
At the same time, Mr. Go told reporters the conflict could shave off as much as 0.25 percentage point (ppt) from the country’s economic output this year, highlighting the broader fallout of rising oil prices and global uncertainty.

Mr. Go said they are closely monitoring movements in global oil prices and the duration of the conflict and the possibility of sustained higher oil prices.

US President Donald J. Trump earlier said the war could last four to five weeks but may extend far longer.

“In one scenario that was looked at, I think there’s an impact on GDP (gross domestic product) of between 0.1 [ppt] and 0.25 [ppt],” he said.

According to Mr. Go, there is no need to revise this year’s 5-6% GDP growth target for now, noting global oil prices are currently around $76 to $78 per barrel.

Growth targets could be revised if oil prices rise to around $85 per barrel, he added.

SUSPENSION OF EXCISE TAX
Meanwhile, legislators are backing calls to suspend the collection of excise tax on fuel products.

“Now is the time to prepare before prices surge further,” Marikina Rep. Romero “Miro” S. Quimbo, who heads the Committee on House Ways and Means, said in a statement. “Congress must immediately pass a measure authorizing the President to suspend excise tax on fuel during extraordinary circumstances.”

Mr. Quimbo filed House Bill No. 8257 which seeks to grant the President authority to suspend or reduce excise taxes on petroleum products during national or global emergencies. However, it proposed that any suspension or cut in the fuel excise tax rate should be effective for a maximum of six months, unless extended by lawmakers through a joint congressional resolution.

The bill requires the President to submit to Congress within 15 days of issuing a suspension order a “factual basis” for halting or cutting excise taxes, including estimates of foregone revenue and the impact on inflation, fuel prices and economic activity.

Navotas Rep. Tobias Reynald M. Tiangco filed a joint congressional resolution that would allow Mr. Marcos to temporarily halt the collection of value-added tax (VAT) on fuel products.

At the Senate, Senator Emmanuel Joel J. Villanueva filed Senate Bill No. 1922 that seeks to provide the President with powers to suspend or reduce excise tax on gasoline and diesel once the average price of crude oil exceeds $80 per barrel.

Under the bill, the President can suspend or reduce the excise tax on fuel through an executive order, upon the recommendation of the Energy and Finance secretaries.

The bill also provides for the automatic lifting of the suspension once global oil prices stabilize.

Senator Paolo Benigno “Bam” Aquino IV also filed Senate Bill No. 1923, which proposes to suspend the excise tax imposed in cases of national emergencies or when public interest requires it.

Senate Finance Committee Chair Sherwin T. Gatchalian expressed concern that the suspension of excise tax collection on petroleum products could hurt revenue collection, and impact economic growth.

He estimated the government may forego around P30 billion a month in revenues or around P300 billion in annual revenues due to the measure.

“If the option is to remove excise tax, there will be a lot of losses. My worry is that we’re coming from a slow growth. Maybe we won’t reach the target growth,” Mr. Gatchalian told reporters.

SECURE OIL SUPPLY
Meanwhile, Mr. Marcos said the Philippines has ample energy supply but urged the public to lessen energy use.

Mr. Go said the country’s oil supply is secure, as it has the flexibility to source from other oil-producing states.

“The Philippines maintains an adequate oil buffer equivalent to approximately 50 to 60 days of national demand, providing a cushion against short-term price volatility,” he said.

The President said he will also direct government agencies to minimize their energy use.

“We have given instruction to all government offices to find ways to save on energy. That applies — this is my call to the people as well — let’s find a way to reduce our use of all our sources of energy,” Mr. Marcos said.

Also, Mr. Marcos urged for restraint from all parties but noted the Philippines is only “tangentially” involved due to the number of Filipinos in the region.

“Let’s hope that there is a ceasefire, and we, the Philippines, ask all parties to show restraint and to bring this to a close as quickly as possible,” he said.

The Middle East is home to over 2.4 million migrant Filipino workers, who send a steady stream of remittances that is an important component of the Philippine economy. — with Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio and Adrian H. Halili

Philippines seen to be more affected by oil shock than Asia-Pacific peers

ATTENDANTS prepare to refuel vehicles at a gas station in Quezon City in this file photo. — PHILIPPINE STAR/MIGUEL DE GUZMAN

By Katherine K. Chan, Reporter

THE PHILIPPINES may bear the brunt of the global oil crisis amid the widening conflict in the Middle East compared with its peers in the Asia-Pacific region, a think tank said.

ING Think Regional Head of Research for Asia-Pacific Deepali Bhargava said the country might be worse off than its neighboring economies due to its vulnerability to oil price movements and limited subsidies.

“Several economies like Indonesia, Thailand and India are still partially shielded by fuel subsidies or regulated pricing, which dampens the direct pass through from global oil markets,” she said in a commentary released late on Monday. “On the other hand, the Philippines — also the worst impacted by higher oil prices — tends to see a stronger inflation hit because retail fuel prices are more market-driven and subsidies are limited.”

The Philippines, which imports at least 90% of its oil supply from the Middle East, could see its inflation climb up to 0.4 percentage point (ppt) for every 10% increase in oil prices, according to Ms. Bhargava.

On Tuesday, local fuel retailers imposed over P1-per-liter price increases, marking the 10th straight week of hikes for diesel and kerosene and eighth consecutive week for gasoline.

The Department of Energy  has warned that pump prices in the country will continue to spike amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, which is expected to last weeks.

Meanwhile, Pantheon Macroeconomics said the global oil shock has so far brought a “marginal” impact on inflation, though noted that they could raise their full-year Philippine inflation forecast to 2.8% from 2.6%.

“It’s certainly a concern considering that the Philippines is a net oil importer,” Miguel Chanco, chief Emerging Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told BusinessWorld in an e-mail. “But, as things stand, which is an important caveat, the futures market suggests that the current spike in oil prices will eventually recede in the second half of this year.”

In 2025, headline inflation settled at 1.7% after a 1.8% uptick in December. The full-year print eased from 3.2% in 2024 and was the slowest rate in nine years or since the 1.3% clip in 2016.

However, inflation may pick up for a third straight month as costlier oil, electricity and rice could bring the headline print to 2.4% in February, according to the median estimate of a BusinessWorld poll of 17 analysts.

Most economic managers, if not all, have been expecting inflation to be on an uptrend starting this year, with some seeing it potentially hitting the upper end of the central bank’s 2%-4% target.

For Emilio S. Neri, Jr., lead economist at Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI), rising energy prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions could drive inflation toward 4% in the coming months. 

“The escalation introduces a renewed geopolitical risk premium into global markets, primarily via oil,” he said in a commentary. “For the Philippines, higher energy prices compound already elevated rice-driven inflation risks, potentially pushing headline inflation toward 4% in the coming months.”

“A renewed leg higher in global oil prices would amplify second-round effects through transport, electricity, and logistics costs, potentially broadening inflationary pressures beyond food and fuel,” Mr. Neri added.

ING’s Ms. Bhargava shared the same sentiment, noting that prolonged price shocks and foreign exchange volatility could bring Philippine inflation closer to 4%.

“Our base case had inflation across Asia rising but still staying within most central bank targets,” she said. “But a price shock of this magnitude — if it lasts — coupled with currency depreciation could push inflation, for example, in the Philippines to the upper end of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2-4% inflation target, increasing the pressure on the central bank to hold rates instead of cutting further.”

Mr. Neri also noted that the BSP’s easing room may narrow if West Texas Intermediate oil price would reach $80 per barrel through June or if rice inflation keeps accelerating on a monthly basis.

The Monetary Board has been on an easing path since August 2024, having slashed the key policy rate by a total of 225 basis points to an over three-year low of 4.25%.

Following their first policy meeting this year, BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said they are now less certain about their policy outlook as they see tentative signs of economic recovery, even as their inflation expectations remain anchored.

FURTHER EASING
On the other hand, Capital Economics Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams and Asia Economist Gareth Leather still expect the BSP to keep cutting rates as they see a 0.5 ppt uptick in Philippine inflation, considering an $80-per-barrel Brent crude oil price, as “not a major concern.”

“Given the starting point — inflation in most countries is at or below target — this would not be a major concern,” they said in a commentary. “We would continue to expect further policy easing in several economies, most notably the Philippines and Thailand.”

However, they noted that the central bank may pause once oil prices hit $100 per barrel as it could push inflation up by over one percentage point.

Meanwhile, BPI’s Mr. Neri said they see the peso depreciating to P59.70 by yearend amid the ongoing conflict.

On Monday, the peso slid back to the P58-per-dollar level, breaking its five-day streak of closing at the P57-a-dollar mark, as uncertainty arises from the Middle East.

It weakened further to close at P58.435 against the greenback on Tuesday, down 23.5 centavos from its P58.20 finish on Monday, based on Bankers’ Association of the Philippines data.

Mr. Neri also noted that the conflict may disrupt remittance flows, especially with over 2.4 million Filipino migrants and laborers based in the Middle East.

“The conflict also poses downside risks to remittance flows,” he said. “Nearly 40% of overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) are based in the Middle East. However, cash remittances from the region accounted for approximately 18% ($6.5 billion) of total inflows ($35.6 billion) in 2025, suggesting that while risks are elevated, the overall impact may be contained than imagined unless the conflict significantly escalates.”

Last year, OFW remittances grew by 3.3% year on year to hit a record-high of $35.634 billion, with 18.19% or $6.481 billion sent home from the Middle East.

Petron profit jumps 84% to P15.6B on higher domestic sales

PETRON.COM

LISTED oil refiner Petron Corp. reported an 84% increase in net income to P15.6 billion in 2025, driven by sustained domestic volume growth, improved refinery productivity, and lower costs.

Revenues declined by 7% to P810 billion from P868 billion in 2024 due to weaker international prices, the company said in a statement on Tuesday. Petron has yet to release its full financial report for the period.

Petron’s operations in the Philippines and Malaysia posted a 3% year-on-year increase in total volumes to 113.4 million barrels.

The company said it maintained its leadership in the domestic market “amid tough competition.”

Volumes in Malaysia, meanwhile, remained steady “despite the demand correction following the change in the government-regulated pricing mechanism for fuels.”

Petron, which operates the country’s only remaining refinery, said it optimized plant utilization and benefited from favorable refining economics last year.

This came amid a weaker average price of Dubai crude, the regional benchmark, partly due to geopolitical developments and policy changes.

“Despite external challenges, we achieved growth across the business and emerged stronger in an unpredictable market,” Petron President and Chief Executive Officer Ramon S. Ang said.

He said the company would continue strengthening its supply chain and strategically expanding its footprint as it reinforces its position in the industry.

Petron retained its position as the Philippines’ top oil market player, with a 27.8% share as of the first half of 2025, according to the Department of Energy.

The company operates 50 terminals across the region and about 2,700 service stations and maintains a refining capacity of nearly 270,000 barrels per day.

At the local bourse on Tuesday, Petron shares rose 7.14% to close at P3.30 apiece. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera

Maynilad allocates P7.7B to reduce water losses

MAYNILADWATER.COM.PH

WEST ZONE concessionaire Maynilad Water Services, Inc. is earmarking around P7.7 billion for initiatives to reduce water losses and maximize available water supply across its service areas.

In a briefing on Tuesday, Ryan B. Zamora, Maynilad’s head for Central Non-Revenue Water (NRW), said most of the allocated investment will be used for pipe replacement.

“Recovering water through NRW reduction helps us optimize existing infrastructure and improve overall system efficiency,” Mr. Zamora said. “Much of this work happens underground through continuous monitoring and early leak detection before problems become visible at the surface.”

For 2026, NRW initiatives will support pipe replacement in high-loss areas, expanded leakage control activities, network diagnostics, and the continued evaluation of emerging technologies.

NRW refers to water that is not billed and is lost due to leaks or illegal connections.

The budget is part of Maynilad’s planned investment of up to P20.65 billion from 2025 to 2027 to reduce water losses.

The company ended 2025 with an NRW level of 30.7%, down from 38.4% in December 2024. The reduction translates to about 256 million liters per day of recovered water — enough to meet the daily needs of more than 1.6 million customers.

Maynilad aims to lower its average NRW level to 29% this year and reach 20% by 2030 through sustained infrastructure investment, system monitoring, and targeted network rehabilitation programs.

“An important aspect of NRW is water conservation, to ensure that the next generations will still inherit and will be able to use a proper water system,” Mr. Zamora said in Filipino.

Last year, Maynilad identified 35,000 underground leaks and repaired 71,000 underground and surface leaks. Mr. Zamora said aging pipelines and coastal exposure were among the main causes of pipe deterioration.

Reducing NRW involves complex operating conditions, including dense environments with limited excavation access, ongoing road and drainage construction, and extensive permitting and traffic coordination requirements.

The company currently uses electronic listening devices, ground microphones, and in-line inspection tools to pinpoint underground pipe leaks.

Maynilad serves Manila (except portions of San Andres and Sta. Ana), and also operates in Quezon City, Makati, Caloocan, Pasay, Parañaque, Las Piñas, Muntinlupa, Valenzuela, Navotas, and Malabon. It supplies the cities of Cavite, Bacoor, and Imus, and the towns of Kawit, Noveleta, and Rosario in Cavite province.

Metro Pacific Investments Corp., Maynilad’s majority shareholder, is one of three Philippine subsidiaries of First Pacific Co. Ltd., alongside Philex Mining Corp. and PLDT Inc.

Hastings Holdings, Inc., a unit of PLDT Beneficial Trust Fund subsidiary MediaQuest Holdings, Inc., holds an interest in BusinessWorld through the Philippine Star Group, which it controls. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera

Globe Business seen capturing early IoT opportunities in Philippines — BMI

RAWPIXELS.COM-FREEPIK

GLOBE BUSINESS, the corporate arm of Globe Telecom, Inc., is positioned to capture early growth in the Philippines’ nascent Internet of Things (IoT) market through its partnership with cellular IoT solutions provider Aeris, according to a report by BMI, a Fitch Solutions company.

The report, dated March 2, noted that the collaboration leverages Aeris’ IoT accelerator platform to deliver unified, secure, and scalable connectivity solutions for key sectors, including automotive, smart cities, and smart manufacturing.

“Globe is positioning to capture emerging commercial opportunities in the IoT sector as adoption accelerates across the region,” the BMI report said, adding that the Asia-Pacific accounts for roughly 82% of global cellular machine-to-machine SIMs.

Globe Business has partnered with Aeris to launch cellular IoT solutions in the Philippines through the Aeris IoT accelerator platform.

BMI said the platform functions as a single-pane-of-glass connectivity management system, allowing Globe to monitor and manage fleets of connected devices and SIMs in a unified environment.

Integrated network security is expected to help scale enterprise IoT projects, with a commercial launch targeted for the third quarter of 2026.

The report highlighted that the partnership aligns with Globe’s strategy to expand its enterprise service portfolio and deepen engagement across key sectors as enterprises transition from pilot projects to large-scale IoT deployments.

Globe plans to leverage its enterprise segment’s capabilities in network mobility to provide advanced artificial intelligence, end-to-end deployment, automation, and secure networking.

IoT refers to networks of physical and smart objects, such as appliances, sensors, wearables, and vehicles, that are embedded with software and connected technologies.

BMI noted that unified connectivity solutions can reduce operational complexity, address fragmentation, and support streamlined IoT adoption in the Philippines.

The Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) has previously observed that IoT adoption continues to gain momentum in the Philippines, with telecom providers using its growth to strengthen digital infrastructure.

The country’s IoT market is projected to grow at an annual rate of 20% from 2024 to 2029, the DICT said.

At the local bourse on Tuesday, shares in Globe rose P2, or 0.12%, to close at P1,680 apiece. — Ashley Erika O. Jose

Meralco projects 3% rise in energy sales volume for 2026

PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS

POWER DISTRIBUTOR Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) expects a 3% increase in its energy sales volume this year, supported by the expected normalization of electricity demand as temperatures stabilize.

Meralco Senior Vice-President Ferdinand O. Geluz said the company is relying on a less severe “organic contraction” compared with last year, which came off a high base due to El Niño in 2024.

“For as long as hindi mag-contract as heavy as last year ‘yung organic (demand) natin because of temperature, as service energization efforts remain consistent,” he said on the sidelines of an event last week.

For the first quarter, Mr. Geluz said Meralco expects flattish growth in energy sales, with recovery anticipated from the second quarter onward.

“We forecasted this as early as last year since first quarter (last year) was the tail end of El Niño. Now we’re at the tail end of La Niña, so we expect recovery to begin in the second quarter as warmer weather sets in,” he said.

For the full year, the power distributor recorded a nearly flat energy sales volume, with a 0.7% decline to 53,997 gigawatt-hours, affected by softer demand due to extreme weather, increased adoption of rooftop solar, and slower economic growth.

The distribution utility business accounted for the largest share of Meralco’s earnings in 2025, which rose 12% to P50.6 billion, meeting its profit target for the year.

Meralco is the country’s largest private electric distribution utility, serving more than 8.2 million customers in Metro Manila and nearby provinces, including Bulacan, Cavite, Rizal, and parts of Laguna, Batangas, Pampanga, and Quezon.

Meralco’s controlling stakeholder, Beacon Electric Asset Holdings, Inc., is partly owned by PLDT Inc. Hastings Holdings, Inc., a unit of PLDT Beneficial Trust Fund subsidiary MediaQuest Holdings, Inc., holds an interest in BusinessWorld through the Philippine Star Group, which it controls. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera

Philippine Book Festival expands local publishing

PHILIPPINE BOOK FESTIVAL 2025 — NATIONAL BOOK DEVELOPMENT BOARD — PHILIPPINES

NOW on its fourth year, the Philippine Book Festival (PBF) is set to return on March 12 to 15 at the Megatrade Hall in SM Megamall, Mandaluyong City. It will serve as a marketplace for all-Filipino books and published works and a shared space where publishers, writers, illustrators, readers, and educators can gather.

There will be over a hundred exhibitors bringing with them an extensive collection of books. A diverse range of talks and workshops is also lined up over the four-day event.

“Across our previous editions, we welcomed more than 120,000 attendees and generated an estimated P80 million in retail sales,” said Charisse Aquino-Tugade, executive director of the National Book Development Board (NBDB), at the festival’s press conference on Feb. 26 in Quezon City.

She emphasized the real stories behind the numbers. “Think about the child clutching a newly signed book as if it were gold, the teacher who discovers a locally produced title that fits her classroom perfectly, the small regional publisher whose books flew off the shelves,” she said.

The first day will welcome all readers alongside the Department of Education (DepEd) and its book evaluators from across the country.

The festival will organize its offerings under four signature realms within a rainforest-inspired setting. “Aral Aklat” highlights textbooks and teaching guides; “Booktopia” invites visitors to explore Filipino fiction and nonfiction; “Kid Lit” provides interactive, child-friendly books and experiences; and “Komiks” celebrates the visual richness of Filipino comics and graphic storytelling.

“These represent different audiences, different genres, under one forest — interconnected, thriving, and alive,” said Ms. Tugade.

National Artists for Film and Broadcast Arts Ricky Lee and for Literature Virgilio Almario, and prominent historian Ambeth Ocampo will be on hand to sign books alongside trade-book superstars Jonaxx and Ron Canimo, children’s literature authors Eugene Evasco and Luis Gatmaitan, and komiks legends Manix Abrera and Pol Medina. GMA Network, together with PaperKat Books, will also launch Encantadia Chronicles: Sang’gre, the first collectible book based on the Encantadia TV franchise, at PBF 2026.

The area will be divided into special nooks: Lugar Lagdaan for book signings and reader-author meetups; Bahay Ilustrador for a look into the world of visual storytellers; Gubat ng Karunungan for workshops, talks, and masterclasses; the Fiesta Stage for major programming and performances; and Umpukan for informal community conversations.

The NBDB, in cooperation with the National Library of the Philippines, will also exhibit facsimiles of Jose Rizal’s Noli Me Tangere, Doctrina Christiana, and Fr. Manuel Blanco’s Flora de Filipinas, all rare works that anchor the festival in the Philippines’ deep literary heritage.

A highlight of the four-day run is the 43rd National Book Awards, to be held on March 14 at the Fiesta Stage, recognizing the works of authors, illustrators, editors, translators, and publishers whose books have helped shape the country’s literary landscape.

Ms. Tugade said at the press conference that, over the last four years, the NBDB saw an increase in the number of books being published, trackable using their International Standard Book Number.

“The titles are growing, and that means that there are more people reading. We’re looking at the work of the publishers, and we’ve seen their titles expanding as well,” she said.

Another indicator of growth is the number of registrants in the publishing industry, which the NBDB reported has “seen a surge” as well.

As part of its efforts to improve readership locally, the PBF will be open to the public from March 12 to 15. For more information on the Philippine Book Festival and to register for free, visit www.philippinebookfest.com. — Brontë H. Lacsamana

T-bonds fetch higher yields as Iran war raises inflation risks

TREASURY.GOV.PH

THE GOVERNMENT made a full award of the Treasury bonds (T-bonds) it offered on Tuesday at a higher average rate due to renewed inflation worries as the worsening conflict in the Middle East raised oil supply risks.

The Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) borrowed P30 billion as planned via the reissued seven-year bonds it auctioned off, with total bids for the tenor reaching P47.769 billion, above the amount on offer.

This brought the outstanding volume for the bond series to P215 billion, the Treasury said in a statement after the auction, adding that it made a full award as the offer was oversubscribed.

The reissued bonds, which have a remaining life of four years and 10 months, were awarded at an average rate of 5.717%. Accepted yields ranged from 5.6% to 5.74%.

The average yield of the reissued papers rose by 16 basis points (bps) from the 5.557% fetched for the series’ last award on Feb. 3 but was 40.8 bps below the 6.125% coupon for the issue.

This was also 11.6 bps above the 5.601% fetched for the same bond series and 10.1 bps higher than the 5.616% quoted for the five-year paper — the benchmark tenor closest to the remaining life of the issue — at the secondary market before Tuesday’s auction, based on the PHP Bloomberg Valuation Service Reference Rates data provided by the BTr.

A trader said the average yield fetched for the issue was at the higher end of market expectations.

“Yields were high as expected due to the current US-Iran conflict. Additionally, the market seems to be anticipating stronger inflation data to be released on Thursday given the preemptive increase in yields,” the trader said in a text message. “Demand was decent, not incredibly high, as some players are content to wait for 07-71 in the secondary market.”

Market players were hesitant to park their cash in longer tenors due to the geopolitical risks, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

Yields went up as the situation in the Middle East has caused oil prices to rise due to supply concerns, and this could lead to higher import costs and inflation that could reduce the odds of future monetary easing, he said.

Mr. Ricafort added that the BTr’s latest issuance of new 10-year benchmark bonds worth P297.94 billion could have contributed to the tepid demand as this siphoned off liquidity from the market.

Brent rose more than $3 on Tuesday for a third day of gains as the widening US-Israeli conflict with Iran and threats to shipping via the Strait of Hormuz heightened fears of supply disruptions from the key Middle East producing region, Reuters reported.

Brent crude futures were at $80.89 a barrel, up $3.15 or 4.1% by 0745 GMT. On Monday, the contract surged to as high as $82.37, its highest since January 2025, though it pared those gains to settle 6.7% higher.

US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed $2.55 or 3.6% to $73.78 a barrel. In the previous session, the contract initially climbed to its highest since June 2025 before sliding back to settle up 6.3%.

The US and Israeli air war against Iran widened on Monday with Israel attacking Lebanon and Iran responding with strikes against energy infrastructure in Gulf countries and against tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

Tankers and container ships are also avoiding the waterway as insurers have canceled their coverage for vessels, while global oil and gas shipping rates have soared.

Concerns about transiting the waterway increased after Iranian media reported on Monday that a senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards official said the Strait of Hormuz is closed and warned Iran will fire on any ship trying to pass.

About 20% of the world’s oil and gas pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Analysts expect oil prices to remain elevated over the coming days while markets focus on the impact of the escalating Middle East conflict.

Meanwhile, a BusinessWorld poll of 17 analysts yielded a median forecast of 2.4% for February inflation, which would be the quickest clip in 13 months or since the 2.9% in January 2025.

This would be faster than the 2% recorded in January and the 2.1% in February 2025 and would mark the straight month that inflation settled within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ 2%-4% annual target.

Still, this is close to the low end of the central bank’s 2.3%-3.1% forecast for the month.

The BTr wants to raise P248 billion from the domestic market this month, or P108 billion in T-bills and P140 billion via Treasury bonds.

The government borrows from local and foreign sources to help fund its budget deficit, which is capped at P1.647 trillion or 5.3% of gross domestic product this year. — Aaron Michael C. Sy with Reuters

SMX logs 10% event growth, 34% rise in visitors in 2025

AN ARTIST’S RENDITION of SMX Cebu. — SMX

SMX CONVENTION Center, the meetings and exhibitions arm of SM Prime Holdings, Inc., recorded 1,632 events across its eight properties in 2025, up 10% from 1,480 in 2024.

Visitor traffic increased 34% to 8.54 million in 2025 from 6.37 million a year earlier, driven by a higher number of booked events, the company said in a statement on Tuesday.

Events were split nearly evenly between Metro Manila and regional sites, including Clark, Bacolod, Davao, and Olongapo.

“Since the pandemic reopening, we have seen sustained demand not only in Metro Manila but also in key regional destinations,” SM Hotels and Conventions Corp. Executive Vice-President Peggy E. Angeles said.

“The accessible locations of our venues also encouraged walk-in visitors, particularly for exhibitions and consumer shows open to the public,” she added.

SMX venues hosted major events in 2025, including PhilConstruct, WOFEX, SIGMA, the Manila International Auto Show, and Travel Tour Expo, as well as bridal fairs and cosplay conventions.

“We are scaling capacity in step with demand, while focusing on developments that complement our current portfolio. This allows us to extend growth beyond the capital and strengthen our presence in key provincial markets,” Ms. Angeles said.

The company said SMX Convention Center Seaside Cebu is scheduled to open in the fourth quarter of 2026 and is expected to be the largest convention center in the Philippines upon completion.

Meanwhile, SMX Center for International Trade and Exhibitions, an 18,000-square-meter exhibition venue under construction at the SM Mall of Asia Complex in Pasay City, is set to open in early 2027 and is projected to be the country’s largest venue dedicated to international trade and exhibitions. — Alexandria Grace C. Magno

An intimate theatrical awakening

SHEENA BELARMINO as Wendla. — GERCY MANDELA/THE SANDBOX COLLECTIVE

By Brontë H. Lacsamana, Reporter

Theater Review
Spring Awakening
Presented by
The Sandbox Collective
Feb. 13 to March 22
The Black Box, Proscenium Theater
Rockwell, Makati City

IT IS ONLY fitting that a striking and intimate musical introduced Filipino theatergoers to the dark yet cozy silence of the brand-new Black Box of the Proscenium Theater in Rockwell, Makati.

The Sandbox Collective’s staging of Spring Awakening, which began on Feb. 13, is the inaugural production of the humble setup, located at the 6th floor of Proscenium. There, Duncan Sheik’s music and Steven Sater’s book and lyrics resonated with audiences, who also enjoyed decent leg room and satisfyingly crisp acoustics.

Spring Awakening premiered two decades ago Off-Broadway, but this staging directed by Andrei Nikolai Pamintuan effortlessly recreates the oppressive milieu of late 19th century Germany. It’s a coming-of-age for teens exploring their sexuality in an unforgiving environment, and it manages to strike a chord with Filipinos in the present day.

A memorable set piece that exemplifies this is the lower half of a large oak tree hanging from the ceiling, where the leads, Melchior and Wendla, meet and dream of a better world. It may be a peculiar choice to have it suspended in the air rather than on ground where the actors can actually lean on it, but it gives the impression that all the characters are underground, adding to their suffocation.

The production is filled with these interesting set pieces. Designed by Wika Nadera, the gray backdrop, the stony atmosphere with sharp corners, and the small, dimly lit cave where the band plays the music all add to the emotions of the musical. The most affecting piece would have to be the cross-shaped structure that descends from the ceiling, on which Melchior and Wendla play out their first sexual encounter — an ironic choice that calls out the role of religion in the lives of the oppressed youth.

Ejay Yatco directs the music to deliver a good gut punch, some songs heavy when needed and others more tenderly performed. The restrained emotion is perfect for songs like “Mama Who Bore Me,” whereas the outright aggression in “Totally Fucked” is cathartic to hear.

Another aspect worth mentioning is the costuming by Raven Ong. The dark boarding school attire worn by the boys contrast well with the innocent-looking floral dresses worn by the girls, offering a glimpse into the rigid educational environment that aims to mold capable men and the one-dimensional standard of purity forced onto women.

The cast that we saw on the evening of Feb. 21 was splendid. Sheena Belarmino as the doe-eyed Wendla was enthralling onstage, and she paired perfectly with the tough energy and rare vulnerability displayed by Alex Diaz as Melchior.

Diaz shone the most in the scenes where he would clash with authority, bringing out the defiance that would make the audience root for these teens. Alongside him, Nic Chien’s take on Moritz stands out, too, as his voice and movements embody the fragile, frantic psyche that slowly cracks over the course of the play. By the time he finally gives in under the weight of the trauma, the tortured neurosis he brings to the ensemble descends into a haunting calm that would characterize the rest of the tragedy that plays out.

Even the choreography (by Nunoy Van Den Burgh) allows these actors to carry out their characters’ personal trajectories all within the framework of Spring Awakening as written. The frenetic energy of their bodies, filled with stomps and agitated movements, offers just enough space for each actor to inject their take on inner turmoil. The lighting by D Cortezano is strong as well, very subtle in the quiet moments to emphasize silhouettes and very striking in others as flashes of light dance along with the emotions of the cast.

Both adult actors, who play an array of adult characters, delivered. We saw Ana Abad Santos’ version, which vacillated reliably between humorous and grounded. Opposite her, Audie Gemora was the picture of authority in all of his roles, comical at times but mainly severe as a representation of how the rigid system should be. The ensemble was commendable, fully cohesive in energy as they were propelled by the rock music and choreography.

Ultimately, this staging of Spring Awakening drives home the consequences of systemic repression, unwavering in its bleakness that it leaves one yearning for a more hopeful ending. It’s a cautionary tale movingly told in the right environment.

Tickets to Spring Awakening are available via Ticket2Me.

Population decline: Greatest threat to humanity

EASY-PEASY.AI

(Part 4)

Since Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew realized the folly of population control, one country after another that fell into the demographic trap (and, for some them, consequently into the Middle Income Trap), there have been futile efforts to reverse the decline in their fertility rate through appealing to all sorts of human motivations, financial or otherwise. The results have been utter failure which, even as we speak today, is being experienced in China whose government is giving lavish incentives to couples to have children but in vain. A possible exception is South Korea whose birthrate rose for a second-straight year in 2025, although it is too early to tell if this is a real turn around.

It seems clear that once the contraceptive mentality has been nurtured in the minds of the population, an anti-birth culture is difficult to reverse because of the materialistic and narcissistic environment that is prevailing in the secularized societies of today. Population decline is not only an economic or demographic issue. It is also deeply moral, religious, and spiritual because it touches on the deepest meaning of life, family, sexuality, marriage, responsibility between generations, and hope for the future. I would venture the opinion that the increased fertility rate in South Korea may be attributed to the rapid increase in conversions to Christianity, especially Catholicism, of South Koreans.

In what St. John Paul II referred to as a consumerist society, in which the only measure of success and happiness is to pile up more and more material or consumer goods, the moral value of human life is lost. Human life is no longer considered a gift to be welcomed but as a burden to be endured. Many societies, especially the highly developed economies, increasingly consider children as costs, not blessings. Economic rationalism resulting from the philosophy of consumerism often reduces human beings to mere consumers or producers of goods and services. This leads to a rejection of parenthood or its indefinite postponement until it is too late to have babies. The intrinsic worth of human life is denied.

The common good, a concept vital to the social doctrine of the Catholic Church, is negated through an extreme belief in the philosophy of individualism. There is no longer concern for a social order that enables every member of society to attain his or her fullest integral human development. An individualistic modern culture strongly emphasizes personal freedom, self-fulfillment, and career and lifestyle choices that exclude one’s responsibility to society, which is especially contrary to the virtue of charity — the highest virtue in Catholic social doctrine. Unchecked individualism can undermine the formation of family and long-term societal continuity. Classical moral teaching that can be traced to the pre-Christian era of the Greek philosophers has always held that freedom must be balanced with responsibility to the community and to the future. They called it agape, the form of human love that imitates God’s love for His creatures, a completely unselfish love that expects nothing in return.

The frequent occurrences of global economic crises have sown fear, anxiety, and moral pessimism in many societies. Many people, ironically in highly advanced economies, avoid having children because of fear of climate change, political instability, economic security (especially lack of food security), and moral pessimism about the future. People, especially in developed economies, increasingly treat children as costs, not blessings. Economic rationalism often reduces human beings to consumers or producers. This often leads to postponement or even outright rejection of parenthood. There are fewer and fewer marriages, especially in Japan which is suffering most from a decline in fertility. As Leo Lewis wrote in his Financial Times column “Global Insight,” marriage holds the key to reversing the relentless fall in Japan’s birth rate. Stable, long-lasting Japanese marriages, despite the many financial and other issues cited by couples as an impediment to having large families, are pretty consistent producers of about 1.9 children. No wonder, the fertility rate in the Philippines is at that level. As the Boston Consulting Group found out in a survey, most micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) are started in the Philippines for the main purpose of supporting families and not to build empires as in the case of other Southeast Asian countries.

The prevalent philosophy of individualism clashes directly with the common good. While morally legitimate, individual freedom can undermine family formation and long-term societal continuity. The classical moral teaching is that freedom must be balanced with responsibility to the community and the future.

Philosophical convictions and religious beliefs can serve as antidotes to the moral pessimism that militates against having children.

In Judaism, children are highly valued as a blessing and commandment (God’s commandment to Adam and Eve: “Be fruitful and multiply and fill the earth.”). Family continuity and succession are central to covenantal faith. Population decline is often perceived as a spiritual warning sign in the Old Testament. To be infertile among the women is often considered a curse from God.

Time and again, the infallible teaching of the Catholic Popes has always been the sacredness of life from the moment of conception. St. John Paul II in his encyclical Evangelium Vitae (The Gospel of Life) could not be clearer in teaching this unchanging doctrine: “Human life must be respected and protected absolutely from the moment of conception… From the time the ovum is fertilized, a life is begun which is neither that of the father nor the mother; it is rather the life of a new human being.”

The Philippine Constitution of 1987 adopted this doctrine by categorically stating that the “State must protect the lives of the mother and the unborn from the moment of conception.” That is why, legalizing abortion would be unconstitutional in the Philippines.

All other Popes before and after St. John Paul II have uniformly taught the same pro-life doctrine. In one simple sentence, “Human life is sacred, inviolable and worthy of full moral and legal protection from the moment of conception until natural death.” Because this teaching is captured in the fundamental law of the Philippines, a predominantly Catholic nation, population policy cannot be morally neutral about human life; development must always be pro-life, pro-family, and pro-future; and children can never be framed as obstacles to progress.

Catholicism is not alone in considering children as blessings. Other religions like Judaism, Islam, and Hinduism can also be bases for avoiding the fate of the highly secularized societies that are suffering the most from depopulation and ageing. It is interesting to note what Chat GPT correlates religious beliefs with fertility rates: The ultra-secular category (South Korea, Japan, Italy, and Spain): fertility rates 0.7 to 1.3; Moderately religious (France, the US): 1.6 to 1.9; Strongly religious (Israel, the Philippines, parts of Africa): 2.5 to 3; and highly religious subgroups (Orthodox Jews, Muslims): 3.5 to 6. These may be explained by the fact that religion provides meaning beyond self, moral justification for sacrifice, hope for the future, and stable marriage norms with the family as the basic unit of society. Without these beliefs linked to religions, children appear as irrational economic burdens.

As we Filipino Catholics know, our beliefs offer one of the most coherent moral frameworks on the desirability of a large population. We respect the dignity of human life which we consider sacred from conception to natural death. To us, children are persons, not “lifestyle options.” We perceive population decline as reflecting a reduced sense of life’s sacredness. We believe that marriage is a vocation, a calling from God. It is not just a contract that can be dissolved at will but a covenant with God as witness. For us, marriage is ordered toward love and openness to life. Catholic social doctrine rejects the view that fertility is a social problem to be managed. We do not treat human reproduction as purely private or merely technical.

To us, responsible parenthood is not anti-natalist. We are not against the responsible spacing of children as long as natural methods of family planning are employed, eschewing the artificial methods based on chemical or mechanical means. We reject coercive population control, especially state-driven fertility suppression and consumer-driven child avoidance. In consonance with the basic principles of subsidiarity and solidarity, we believe that families are the basic cell of society and that states must support families and not replace them. Economic systems must support family life, not undermine it.

(To be continued.)

 

Bernardo M. Villegas has a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard, is professor emeritus at the University of Asia and the Pacific, and a visiting professor at the IESE Business School in Barcelona, Spain. He was a member of the 1986 Constitutional Commission.

bernardo.villegas@uap.asia

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