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Entertainment News (01/17/25)

PPO holds first concert for 2025

THE Philippine Philharmonic Orchestra (PPO) begins the year with an evening of majestic melodies. For Europa, the 4th concert in its 40th season which started last year, the PPO will perform Zoltán Kodály’s Dance of Galanta, Tchaikovsky’s Violin Concerto No. 1, and Dvořák’s Symphony No. 8, op. 88, G Major. Cleveland concertmaster David Radzynski will be a guest for this symphonic journey. The concert will take place on Jan. 17 at the Samsung Performing Arts Theater in Circuit, Makati.

Odette Quesada holds homecoming concert

THE QUEEN of pop and R&B in the 1980s and ’90s will be holding a “coming home” concert, Odette Quesada Hits 60, marking her 60th birthday at the Globe Auditorium, Maybank Performing Arts Theater, Taguig, on Jan. 17, 18, and 24.

J-Pop and K-Pop concerts this weekend

RETRO horror-inspired J-pop group Phantom Siita will hold a concert, Moth to a Flame, produced by Japanese singer-songwriter Ado, in Manila on Jan. 18. The Manila leg of their first-ever world tour will be held at the Samsung Hall at SM Aura, Taguig City. Meanwhile, the Manila leg of the K-pop boy group SEVENTEEN’s RIGHT HERE WORLD TOUR will take place at the Philippine Arena in Bocaue, Bulacan, on Jan. 18 and 19.

Greenhills Mall hosts Lion Dance Competition

TO welcome the Year of the Wooden Snake this Chinese New Year, the Greenhills (GH) Mall, in partnership with Pawchester and Huang Lion & Dragon Dance Group, is hosting the country’s first-ever Lion Dance Competition, with a grand prize of P100,000, on Jan. 19. It will feature 10 Lion Dance teams who will showcase their talent and creativity in adding their own flare to the well-known cultural performance, with five categories: Snake, Centipede, Bridge, Drunken, and Scorpion. The first runner-up will receive P80,000 and the second runner-up will get P50,000. The Lion Dance Competition will be held at the East Wing Atrium of GH Mall on Jan. 19, from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m.

Bistro Group marks 30 years with 30% off on Jan. 19

THE BISTRO GROUP is marking its 30th anniversary by offering a 30% discount at participating Bistro restaurants on Jan. 19. Starting out with TGIFriday’s, the Bistro Group has since grown to over 25 brands. The 30% discount will be offered all day on Jan. 19 at following The Bistro Group restaurants: TGIFriday’s, Watami, Italianni’s, Texas Roadhouse, Modern Shang, Red Lotus, Fish & Co., Siklab, Krazy Garlik, Bulgogi Brothers, Buffalo Wild Wings, Denny’s, Olive Garden, Hard Rock Cafe, Secret Recipe, Tomatito, Las Flores, Rumba, Rambla, The Test Kitchen, Ember, and Helm (a reservation fee is required for Helm). Diners who spend a minimum of P3,000 will get 30% off (up to P2,500), valid for dine in only. The discount will be applied on food and beverage inclusive of VAT.

AFM’s Le Cine Club to screen Ati film Tumandok

ALLIANCE Française de Manille’s Le Cine Club will be showing the Cinemalaya 2024 winner Tumandok as part of their weekly film screenings. Featuring an all-Ati non-professional acting ensemble speaking in their own language, Inati, the film reveals the struggle of this indigenous people to reclaim their land. The screening will be held on Jan. 22, 7:30 p.m., at the AFM Cinema, 209 Nicanor Garcia Ave., Bel-Air II, Makati City. There is a P250 registration fee. Part of the proceeds will be donated to the indigenous people’s community featured in the film.

Malcolm Todd releases new single

INDIE rising star Malcolm Todd has dropped a new single, “Chest Pain (I Love)” via Columbia Records. The alternative-pop newcomer’s buzzy track has already trended on TikTok. The track, which dives into the emotional rollercoaster of love and heartbreak, was produced by Mr. Todd, his bandmate Jonah Cochran, and frequent collaborator Charlie Ziman. “Chest Pain (I Love)” is out now on all digital music streaming platforms.

Operation Blood Hunt premieres on Lionsgate Play

ON the streaming platform Lionsgate Play, World War II gets a supernatural twist in Operation Blood Hunt, a film where werewolves bring the terror. The horror film is set on a remote South Pacific Island in 1944, and stars Jonathan Rhys Meyers as the hard-drinking occult expert Reverend Conte. He teams up with a ragtag crew of military rejects to uncover the mystery behind the disappearance of a Marine unit. Supporting actors include former UFC light heavyweight champion Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, Sonia Couling, and Louis Mandylor, who also directs this thriller. Operation Blood Hunt is out now via Lionsgate Play.

Viu offers lineup of Korean variety shows

THERE are many Korean variety shows now available on the streaming platform Viu. There are a couple of idol competitions — the interactive audition program Project 7 that aims to form a seven-member boy group, and the survival show Universe League that seeks to form a boy band under the guidance of K-pop legends. The heartwarming show Whenever Possible puts the spotlight on ordinary Korean citizens while Rented in Finland follows four Korean stars who move to rural Finland. Finally, there’s the cooking competition Paik’s Les Miserables, hosted by Chef Paik who leads participants on Spartan-style missions.

How PSEi member stocks performed — January 16, 2025

Here’s a quick glance at how PSEi stocks fared on Thursday, January 16, 2025.

Manila jumps in 2025 list of top real estate investment destinations

Manila increased two notches to 15th out of 22 cities in the 2025 edition of Emerging Trends in Real Estate Asia Pacific report by Urban Land Institute and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).

Manila jumps in 2025 list of top real estate investment destinations

PSEi falls to near 7-month low after late selloff

REUTERS

PHILIPPINE SHARES sank to the 6,200 level anew on Thursday despite trading higher for most of the session as investors booked profits at the last minute.

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) fell by 1.02% or 64.94 points to end at 6,265.52, while the all shares index decreased by 0.08% or 3.02 points to 3,675.78.

This was the PSEi’s lowest close in nearly seven months or since it finished at 6,158.48 on June 21, 2024.

The index opened Thursday’s session higher than Wednesday’s close at 6,370.58. It climbed to an intraday high of 6,419.26 but succumbed to a late selloff to end at its lowest level for the session.

“The market was in the green territory for the most part of the day, driven by the positive spillovers from Wall Street and the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. However, investors turned cautious towards the end of the session, leading to last-minute profit taking which brought the bourse down,” Philstocks Financial, Inc. Senior Research Analyst Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said in a Viber message.

“Philippines shares made a complete turnaround, closing at the 6,200 level despite trading in the green and reaching 6,400 earlier in the session,” Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Sales Luis A. Limlingan said in a Viber message.

US stocks surged on Wednesday, with all three major indexes registering their biggest daily percentage gains in more than two months, as lower-than-expected December core inflation data and solid earnings from major US banks fueled a rally, Reuters reported.

The Labor Department said the consumer price index increased the most in nine months as energy costs rose, although a measure of underlying inflation pressures subsided.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 703.27 points or 1.65% to 43,221.55; the S&P 500 gained 107.00 points or 1.83% at 5,949.91; and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 466.84 points or 2.45% to 19,511.23.

Almost all sectoral indices closed lower on Thursday. Financials slumped by 1.69% or 36.43 points to 2,113.85; property dropped by 1.10% or 26.04 points to 2,331.66; holding firms went down by 0.65% or 34.5 points to 5,270.83; industrials declined by 0.35% or 31.87 points to 8,916.97; and services inched down by 0.08% or 1.74 points to 2,089.12.

Meanwhile, mining and oil rose by 1.28% or 99.78 points to 7,886.01.

“ACEN Corp. was the day’s index leader, jumping 4.26% to P3.67. BDO Unibank, Inc. was at the bottom, falling 4.03% to P138.00,” Mr. Tantiangco said.

Value turnover climbed to P6.19 billion on Thursday with 966.92 million shares exchanged from the P5.44 billion with 592.49 million issues traded on Wednesday.

Advancers bested decliners, 104 versus 96, while 40 issues were unchanged.

Net foreign selling increased to P1.10 billion on Thursday from P540.58 million on Wednesday. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave with Reuters

Peso drops slightly as global crude prices climb

BW FILE PHOTO

THE PESO weakened slightly against the dollar on Thursday due to higher global oil prices.

The local unit closed at P58.61 per dollar on Thursday, inching down by 3.5 centavos from its P58.575 finish on Wednesday, Bankers Association of the Philippines data showed.

The peso opened Thursday’s session stronger at P58.45 against the dollar. Its intraday best was at P58.41, while its worst showing was its closing level of P58.61 versus the greenback.

Dollars traded inched up to $1.38 billion on Thursday from $1.37 billion on Wednesday.

The rise in global oil prices dragged down the peso, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

“The peso weakened, tracking the renewed spike in global crude oil prices after the fresh sanctions on Russian gas exports,” a trader likewise said in an e-mail.

Oil prices rose more than 2% on Wednesday, supported by a large draw in US crude stockpiles and potential supply disruptions caused by new US sanctions on Russia, while a Gaza ceasefire deal limited gains, Reuters reported.

Brent crude futures settled $2.11 or 2.64% higher at $82.03 a barrel, the highest since August 2024. US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) settled up $2.54 or 3.28% at $80.04 a barrel, the highest since July.

In post settlement trade, Brent rose to the highest since July and WTI gained more than $3 a barrel.

US crude oil inventories fell last week to their lowest since 2022, the US Energy Information Administration reported, as exports rose and imports fell.

The latest round of US sanctions on Russian oil could disrupt Russian oil supply and distribution significantly, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly oil market report.

For Friday, the trader said the peso could rise anew as softer-than-expected US core consumer inflation data fueled bets of further Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The trader sees the peso moving between P58.45 and P58.70 per dollar on Friday, while Mr. Ricafort expects it to range from P58.45 to P58.65.

Overnight, data showed the consumer price index (CPI) rose in line with expectations at an annual rate of 2.9% in December, from November’s 2.7%. But core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 3.2%, below forecasts for 3.3%.

Investors were particularly encouraged by the latest inflation reading since data released on Tuesday showed that US producer prices increased moderately in December.

The inflation report led traders to price close-to-even odds the Fed would cut interest rates twice by the end of this year. — Aaron Michael C. Sy with Reuters

PEZA seeking to raise share of electronics locators in ecozones

REUTERS

THE Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA) said that it is hoping to increase electronics manufacturing services and semiconductor manufacturing services (EMS-SMS) investments in economic zones (ecozones).

In a statement on Thursday, PEZA Director General Tereso O. Panga said the investment promotion agency (IPA) plans to increase the share of EMS-SMS, information technology and business process management (IT-BPM), and American registered business enterprises (RBEs) within its ecozones.

“Undoubtedly, the Philippine economy and electronics industry are on the rise with sustained growth momentum. Even the global electronics industry is projecting 7.5% growth this year, indicating a rosier outlook from its sluggish performance for the past two years,” Mr. Panga said.

“PEZA endeavors to increase further the 32% share of EMS-SMS, the 12% share of IT-BPM, and the 317 American RBEs in total ecozone investments — banking especially on the stronger US-Philippine cooperation and economic ties under the Trump administration,” he added.

He cited the need to seize the opportunities presented by the new US government’s trade policy.

“I highly doubt that a reversal in US policy as regards the Philippines in terms of trade will occur under a Trump administration,” he said, citing the country’s performance, renewed ties between the US and the Philippines, and a looming US-China trade war.

He said improving ease of doing business and the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises to Maximize Opportunities for Reinvigorating the Economy (CREATE MORE) Act will make the Philippines a viable for US businesses.

“PEZA will continue to engage, promote, and entice US companies to invest in the country. And for US companies that have made PEZA their home in the Philippines, encourage their expansion in this part of the world,” he said.

“I believe that our long-standing alliance have mutual benefits for both countries, especially in business and trade in the long term,” he added.

In a mission to Las Vegas and San Francisco, PEZA met with IPC (International Association for Electronics Manufacturing), Applied Materials, ASML, Suba Technology, and their suppliers.

PEZA also briefed ON Semicon, Winstron NeWeb Corp., Quintel Technology, Enphase Energy, Inc., Logoline, Valmiz, and LJ1D Consulting on opportunities in the Philippines.

Mr. Panga highlighted the need to address the potential impact of the planned US tariff hikes on the EMS-SMS industry.

These include how the policy will affect Philippine EMS-SMS exports, how the Philippines will benefit from the increased import tariffs on EMS-SMS products from China, Mexico, and Vietnam, and whether US policy will erode the Philippines’ ability to attract more US investment.

“Alternatively, the government can counter the planned import tariff hikes by forging a bilateral free trade agreement with the US and reviving the Generalized System of Preferences Program to allow for greater market access for our commodity exports to the US,” he added.

PEZA hosts 482 EMS-SMS companies that provide critical back-end support to their principal clients in the US. — Justine Irish D. Tabile

Last subway contracts targeted for award this year

THE Tunnel Boring Machine at the Camp Aguinaldo station of the Metro Manila Subway Project in Quezon City on Jan. 16, 2025. — PHILIPPINE STAR/MIGUEL DE GUZMAN

THE Department of Transportation (DoTr) is hoping to award the remaining contract packages of the Metro Manila Subway Station project by the middle of this year.

“For the remaining contract packages (CPs) — that is, CP 105, 108, 109 — We hope to award those by the middle of this year,” Transportation Undersecretary for Railways Jeremy S. Regino told reporters on Thursday.

On Thursday, the Transportation department, together with Sumitomo Mitsui Construction Co., Ltd. officially launched the tunneling works for CP 103 of the Metro Manila Subway project with the installation of the tunnel boring machine at Camp Aguinaldo station.

The remaining contract packages of the Metro Manila Subway Station project are valued at between P10 billion and P15 billion.

CP 105 covers the construction of the station in Kalayaan Avenue and Bonifacio Global City; while CP 108 covers the Lawton and Senate-DepEd stations; and CP 109 the Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) Terminal 3 station.

“The DoTr commits to go full blast with our projects this year despite budget constraints. We are confident of the timely completion of transport infrastructures in the coming year,” Mr. Regino said.

The Metro Manila Subway Station project is now 50% complete, Mr. Regino said, adding that the DoTr is still confident of achieving partial operations in 2029, with full operations expected between 2030 and 2031.

The subway project will link Valenzuela City to Parañaque City, with a spur line connecting to Ninoy Aquino International Airport.

The subway is 33 kilometers long with 17 stations. The goal is to cut travel time between Quezon City and NAIA to 35 minutes from over an hour currently. It is expected to accommodate up to 370,000 passengers daily. — Ashley Erika O. Jose

Price hikes approved for 63 commodities

PHOTO BY BERNARD HERMANT

THE Department of Trade and Industry said it has approved price increase for 63 commodities, equivalent to 28% of the commodities covered by the suggested retail price bulletin.

Trade Secretary Ma. Cristina A. Roque said prices for the remaining 72% of stock keeping units will remain steady.

“We had a meeting with the manufacturers and 72% will not have any price increase. If ever there’s a price increase it’s only for the remaining 28%,” she told reporters on Thursday. — Justine Irish D. Tabile

LGU share of National Gov’t revenue about 35% in 2026 after set-asides

QUEZON CITY MAYOR MA. JOSEFINA G. BELMONTE — PHILSTAR FILE PHOTO

FINANCE Secretary Ralph G. Recto said that the National Tax Allotment (NTA) for local government units (LGUs) will be the equivalent of 35% of National Government revenue in 2026 when allocations to special-purpose funds are taken into account.

“Today they’re getting roughly 32% as we calculated yesterday, and it will go up to about 35% by 2026. More or less,” Mr. Recto told reporters on Thursday.

The government is required by the Local Government Code to provide 40% of its tax revenue to LGUs, though it is allowed to deduct certain items, such as Special Purpose Funds, from the NTA calculation.

Among the exclusions from the 40% calculation are “special allotments like that for the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM),” he said.

The Code originally called for the LGU share to be 40% of all “internal revenue,” which the Supreme Court struck down in its Mandanas ruling, effectively amending the law to read 40% of all taxes.

According to the 2025 budget, LGUs will get a P1.03-trillion NTA, which is based on the National Government’s revenue from three years prior.

Mr. Recto also added that LGUs are due to receive additional revenue once the impact of the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) law becomes more apparent.

“By 2026 there will be additional revenue for the local government units, particularly from TRAIN,” Mr. Recto said, referring to the tax reform measure that streamlined the collection process to improve compliance and boost revenue.

The DoF met the Mayors for Good Government (M4GG) representatives, Quezon City Mayor Ma. Josefina G. Belmonte and Baguio City Mayor Benjamin B. Magalong, on Wednesday.

Mr. Magalong, founder of M4GG claimed that LGUs were “shortchanged,” receiving only 31% of NG revenue in 2024 and 32% in 2023.

“I think what is important is no one is shortchanging the local government. And as promised, we are very transparent. We show them all the calculations,” Mr. Recto said.

Meanwhile, Ms. Belmonte, president of the League of Cities and a co-convenor of the M4GG said both parties are still open to talks on the matter.

“Siyempre hindi pa nagtatapos dyan… (Things don’t end there). We would like to see if there are other legal remedies other interpretations of the Constitution as well as the SC ruling,” she said.

Ms. Belmonte added that municipalities that rely on the NTA are disproportionately affected, unlike highly urbanized cities that have other sources of revenue. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante

Rice-for-All program to offer P38 rice

PHILIPPINE STAR/WALTER BOLLOZOS

THE Department of Agriculture said it lowered the price of 25% broken rice sold by the Rice-for-All program to P38 per kilogram from P40 per kilo.

“This price reduction will take effect on Friday (Jan. 17), just ahead of the implementation of the maximum suggested retail price (MSRP) of P58 per kilo for 5% broken imported rice,” Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel, Jr. said in a statement on Thursday.

Rice-for-All is a component of the Kadiwa ng Pangulo program. Rice sold in KADIWA centers and stores also include a 5% broken grain variety priced at P45 per kilo, and 100% broken rice at P36 per kilo.

KADIWA centers also sell rice to low-income individuals for P29 per kilo.

“These offerings are being expanded across public markets and KADIWA centers to better serve the consumer,” the DA added.

The DA is looking to expand its KADIWA network to 1,500 locations by 2028, with a 300-outlet target by the second quarter.

To tame rice prices and control profiteering, the DA is set to impose an MSRP on imported rice with 5% broken-grain content at P58 per kilo, starting in Metro Manila markets.

The measure will be reviewed monthly to reflect fluctuations in global market prices and tariff rates, with plans to extend the program to other key cities nationwide.

The agency added that should importers exceed the MSRP, the DA will switch to a stricter suggested retail price scheme with fines and other penalties for violators.  

Importers and retailers have agreed to a profit margin of P10 per kilo above the landed cost of imported rice. This deal excludes specialty rice varieties such as glutinous rice, Japanese, and black rice.

“If world rice prices remain stable, we anticipate a reduction in the MSRP after the February review,” Mr. Laurel added. — Adrian H. Halili

Finance department bats for single tax rate on vapor products

STOCK PHOTO | Image from Pixabay

THE DEPARTMENT of Finance (DoF) pushed for a single tax rate on Thursday on all types of nicotine and vapor products to ease the collection burden on the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR).

“It is very hard for the Bureau of Internal Revenue to distinguish which is a freebase and a salt nicotine so there is actually an incentive for manufacturers to identity their products as freebase because it is taxed at a lower rate,” Finance Assistant Secretary Karlo S. Adriano Fermin told the Senate blue ribbon committee.

The government imposes a tax of P57 per milliliter (ml) on salt nicotine products, P6.3 per ml on freebase nicotine products, and P65 per 10 ml tax on classic nicotine products, according to the excise tax rates prescribed by the Bureau of Customs for 2024.

“Hence, we want to have a unitary rate for ease of tax administration because the BIR does not have that capacity to determine if this is salt nicotine or freebase,” Mr. Adriano said.

The BIR collected P130.91 billion in tobacco excise taxes in the first 11 months of 2024, well behind the pace needed to hit the year’s target of P185.34 billion.

In a separate statement, Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto said his department is open to discussions on raising excise tax rates on tobacco products but warned that continuous tax increases could also make it more attractive and profitable to smuggle these products.

“We’re willing to listen because excise taxes on tobacco fell by roughly P50 billion. We want to increase our revenue there.”

“There is a relationship between high rates and illicit trade, smuggling.” Mr. Recto said. “That’s why we are looking for a sweet spot.”

The House ways and means committee is pushing for a moratorium on yearly excise rate increases on tobacco products.

According to an unnumbered substitute bill prepared by the committee obtained by BusinessWorld on Jan. 14, the pause in yearly hikes would start on Jan. 1 next year until Dec. 31, 2026, provided that a 5% increase will then be imposed starting Jan. 1 and every three years thereafter.

“The focus should be on enforcement because that’s what the experience has been,” Adolfo Jose A. Montesa, a program officer of the fiscal policy team at the Action for Economic Reforms, told BusinessWorld on the sidelines of the hearing.

“If you want to reduce illicit trade, you have to make it harder for people to access these products and you have to be able to go after the entire value chain.”

He cited the need for a track and trace system on tobacco products, requiring the DoF to bolster coordination with law enforcement bodies, and to impose stiffer penalties against smugglers.

President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. has signed a law classifying agricultural smuggling, hoarding, profiteering, and financing of these crimes as acts of economic sabotage, if the goods exceed a valuation threshold of P10 million. — John Victor D. Ordoñez

BDO sees growth topping 6% in 2025; BPI estimates 6.3%

PHILIPPINE STAR/MIGUEL DE GUZMAN

THE economy’s 2025 expansion is expected to top 6% in 2025, Banco de Oro Unibank Inc. (BDO) said, with the Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) giving a 6.3% estimate for gross domestic product.

At the 9th Joint Economic Briefing organized by European chambers, BDO Investor Relations Group Senior Vice-President Dante Tinga, Jr. said he expects tempered inflation and lower interest rates boosting investment and consumption, noting that the private sector has had four years of subdued capital expenditure (capex) activity.

“Investments and consumption are picking up. And we believe that corporates that have held back on capex the past four years will resume capex spending, and that should push up Philippine GDP (gross domestic product) to over 6% in 2025,” Mr. Tinga said.

In a note, BPI Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri, Jr. said: “Consumer spending is expected to show stronger growth this year with inflation now at manageable levels. This improvement will likely be most apparent in discretionary spending after a period of slower growth caused by high inflation, as consumers focused more on essentials.”

For the first nine months of 2024, growth averaged 5.8%. Preliminary fourth-quarter and full-year GDP data will be released on Jan. 30.

The government was counting on 6-6.5% GDP growth in 2024, and 6-8% growth this year.

BDO’s Mr. Tinga said household consumption has been picking up from 4.6% in the first quarter of 2024 to 5.1% in the third quarter.

“The pickup is driven by improvement in essential spending. Essential spending, or spending by less affluent consumers, has actually been relatively weak since the pandemic,” he said.

He said that because the “inflation show is already behind us,” less affluent consumers are gaining some purchasing power, which increased their spending on basic necessities.

“We’re also seeing an improvement in private consumption and durable equipment, mainly importation of machinery in the third quarter,” he said.

“That’s a positive sign, because the private sector, even though their balance sheets have been healthy, when we talk to them, they held back on investments given volatility in exchange rates and interest rates,” he added.

He said that as interest rates and exchange rates stabilized, private construction and investments in machinery will continue to pick up.

“We are confident that the pick-up in consumption and investments that we saw in the second half of last year can be sustained, mainly because the drivers of private sector demand remain very much intact,” he said.

These drivers are foreign worker deployment, employment levels, and aggregate corporate and household balance sheets.

“For 2024 we are projecting that overseas foreign worker deployment will be over 2.6 million, and then that will translate to stable remittances that help support consumption spending,” he said.

Mr. Neri sees inflation remaining within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2-4% target in the coming months, but noted risks such as the possibility of La Niña and disruptions to global supply chains due to trade barriers.

“Inflation remains sensitive to adverse weather conditions, particularly for vegetable prices, which warrant close attention. On the other hand, stable commodity prices amid China’s economic slowdown, improving rice supply, and President Trump’s push to expand US oil production may offset these risks. Additionally, China’s surplus manufacturing capacity could lead to cheaper imports into the Philippines, further easing inflationary pressures. Average inflation may reach 3.5% in 2025,” he said.

Philippine headline inflation picked up to 2.9% in December from 2.5% in November, marking the third consecutive month of faster inflation.

Still, this was slower than the 3.9% reading in the same month a year prior.

December inflation brought the 2024 average to 3.2%, well below the 6% in 2023 and marking the first time since 2021 that the consumer price index settled within the central bank’s 2-4% annual target. This was also the weakest reading since the 2.4% average in 2020.

With a stable outlook for inflation, Mr. Neri sees the BSP cutting rates by 50 basis points (bps) in the first half, as the latter half could see the Federal Reserve turn hawkish due to US President-elect Donald J. Trump’s protectionist policies.

This would bring the BSP’s key rate to 5.25% by end-2025, which will also support household spending.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. has said that the central bank is open to delivering another cut in its first policy meeting for this year, which is scheduled for Feb. 20.

However, he said that while the BSP remains in an easing cycle, 100 bps worth of cuts this year may be “too much” due to inflation risks. He added that they will continue to bring down benchmark interest rates in “baby steps.” — Justine Irish D. Tabile and Aaron Michael C. Sy

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