TOKYO — Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi visits the White House on Thursday for meetings that offer US President Donald J. Trump a chance to lean on a key security partner for support in his Iran war, threatening to strain a decades-old alliance.

Ms. Takaichi is the first major ally set for face-to-face talks with Mr. Trump since he demanded that Japan, among a coalition of nations, send ships to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz waterway, largely closed by Iran in the conflict.

“Takaichi is in a tight spot,” said David Boling, of the Asia Group consultancy in Tokyo and a former US trade negotiator with Japan during Mr. Trump’s first term as president.

“The biggest risk is that Trump publicly presses her for security commitments that she can’t deliver on.”

Japanese officials involved in the preparations said Ms. Takaichi had hoped to remind Mr. Trump of the dangers posed by a regionally assertive China prior to his visit there, initially planned near the end of March, but now delayed.

Instead, she will have to find a way of placating Mr. Trump over his demand for ships to guard the Strait, a conduit for a fifth of global energy, while avoiding legal and political pitfalls.

US allies such as Germany, Italy and Spain have ruled out participating in any Gulf mission, while Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, said on Tuesday, “Nobody is ready to put their people in harm’s way.”

Japan had received no official request from the United States, Ms. Takaichi told parliament on Monday but was checking the scope of possible action within the limits of its pacifist constitution.

Fewer than 10% of Japanese support the attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran, a poll by the Asahi newspaper showed this week.

MAKING AN EXAMPLE OF JAPAN
Mr. Trump has vacillated between chiding allies for their reticence to saying he does not need them, calling out those such as Japan that rely on the United States for their own defense and depend heavily on crude supplies through Hormuz.

About 90% of Japan’s oil shipments come through the Strait.

Tokyo has offered logistical support and intelligence gathering for previous US military efforts in the Middle East. But sending Japanese ships into a conflict area would be legally fraught and deeply unpopular, analysts say.

“It has turned into a discussion that shakes the very foundations of the Japan-US security alliance,” said Kazuhiro Maeshima, a politics professor at Sophia University in Tokyo.

But Mr. Trump has a lot of leverage when it comes to Japan, Mr. Maeshima added.

Japan relies on about 50,000 US troops, a carrier strike group and squadrons of fighter jets stationed in the country to deter threats from China and North Korea.

In addition, Mr. Trump has wielded tariffs to exact billions of dollars in investments, in his effort to adjust a massive trade imbalance with Tokyo.

“If he can bring Japan into the coalition of the willing, it will increase pressure on other countries,” Mr. Maeshima said. “Conversely, if Japan refuses, he can make an example of it — showing what happens when a country says no.”

Public support for Ms. Takaichi has slipped slightly since a barnstorming election win last month, polls show, as her government battles to hold down rising costs partly fueled by the Middle East energy shock.

STRUGGLING TO SATISFY TRUMP
Mr. Trump, who heaped praise on Japan’s first female leader when he visited in October, will have hours to press her on Iran during the summit, over talks, a working lunch and dinner.

With US allies in Asia fretting that the redeployment of US security assets from the region could weaken defenses against China, Japan had hoped dealing with Beijing would be top of the meeting’s agenda.

Tokyo is targeting a deal with Washington that would enable it to diversify supplies of critical minerals away from China and join Mr. Trump’s Golden Dome missile defense system against new hypersonic weapons being developed by China and Russia, said Japanese officials familiar with the preparations.

Anticipating the focus on Iran, Tokyo is scrambling for ways to offer help, but it is unclear if any will satisfy Mr. Trump, said another source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

With limited military options, Tokyo could offer to be a go-between with Tehran, said Tsuneo Watanabe, senior fellow at Japanese think tank The Sasakawa Peace Foundation.

In 2019, Ms. Takaichi’s mentor and assassinated predecessor, Shinzo Abe, carried a message to Iran’s supreme leader during a failed peacekeeping mission, but this time around neither side appears ready for talks.

“I don’t think it’s going to be enough to talk to the Iranians,” said Kurt Campbell, a former deputy secretary of state under Mr. Trump’s predecessor, President Joseph R. Biden.

Mr. Trump was likely to have a very specific request for Ms. Takaichi, requiring an answer either “yes” or “no,” he added.

“This is a moment of enormous political peril.” — Reuters

HANOI — Vietnam’s domestic crude oil production is expected to decline this decade, according to a government document released this week, increasing the country’s reliance on imports as its offshore fields mature and geopolitical tensions threaten global supplies.

The new forecasts for dwindling oil output come as Vietnam, a regional industrial hub hosting large manufacturing operations of electronics and garment multinationals, is bracing for oil shortages caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran and subsequent export bans from energy suppliers.

Crude output is projected to fall to 5.8 million-8.0 million metric tons a year during the 2026-2030 period, down from an average annual output of 8.6 million tons in the last five years, according to the figures released by the industry ministry.

The fall in domestic output is set to further increase reliance on imports which last year rose 5.3% to 14.2 million tons, according to Vietnam’s customs data.

Around 80% of the crude oil Vietnam imported last year came from Kuwait, whose exports are currently frozen by Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Vietnam also imports refined fuels, while its two refineries cover around 70% of the country’s needs, producing gasoline, diesel and other fuels mostly from imported crude.

Gasoline prices in Vietnam have risen by around 30% and diesel by about 40% since the start of the Iran war, while risks of shortages prompted the government to encourage people to work from home to cut fuel consumption.

Authorities also warned of potential flight reductions from April after China and Thailand halted exports of jet fuel due to the war, increasing the likelihood of shortages.

Vietnamese officials have over the past week reached out to Middle Eastern countries, as well as Japan, South Korea and Angola to secure crude oil supplies.

In a bid to boost domestic output, Vietnam will seek to boost exploration activities, including by offering incentives to international oil companies to invest in its offshore fields, the document said, without elaborating on the incentives.

It aims to raise the recoverable reserves by 13 million-17 million tons of crude oil equivalent a year during the 2026-2030 period, it said. — Reuters

WELLINGTON — New Zealand’s government will introduce legislation on Wednesday to tighten deportation, asylum and immigration enforcement rules, saying the changes are needed to tackle serious offending, migrant exploitation and bad-faith claims.

Immigration Minister Erica Stanford said the changes would give authorities “proportionate tools” to manage immigration risks while ensuring the system is fair, functional, and effective.

The bill would extend from 10 to 20 years the period during which a resident can become liable for deportation for serious criminal offending, raise the maximum sentence for migrant exploitation to 10 years from seven, and widen powers to act on false or misleading information supplied during the immigration process.

The bill will have to pass three readings in parliament, but as the government has a majority, it will likely pass.

The move reflects a broader push by governments globally to strengthen immigration and asylum systems as they face political pressure to deter abuse, deport noncitizens convicted of serious crimes and preserve public support for refugee protections.

Alongside the bill, the government will table a parliamentary paper proposing further asylum changes, including allowing officials to consider serious crimes committed in New Zealand before refugee status is decided, according to the statement.

Ms. Stanford said 14 known refugee claimants had been convicted of serious offenses in New Zealand, including murder, serious sexual and drug crimes, and arson.

Other proposals would let authorities move more quickly against claimants deemed to be acting in bad faith, including those who deliberately seek publicity to bolster asylum claims, and against those who fail to attend biometric appointments without good reason, the statement said. — Reuters