Two quakes jolt Bolinao, Pangasinan

March 19, 2026 | 8:36 pm

BAGUIO CITY — A magnitude 4.4 earthquake struck near Bolinao early on Thursday morning, followed less than an hour later by a weaker tremor, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) reported.

The stronger quake occurred at 6:11 a.m., with its epicenter located about 5 kilometers northeast of Bolinao at a shallow depth of 10 kilometers.

PHIVOLCS recorded instrumental intensity III in the nearby town of Bani, indicating weak shaking felt indoors by some residents.

No significant damage however was reported.

At 6:54 a.m., a magnitude 1.9 earthquake was also recorded about 19 kilometers northwest of that same town at a depth of 33 kilometers. The tremor, also tectonic in origin, was too weak to be felt.

PHIVOLCS said it continues to monitor the area and advised residents to remain alert, noting that minor earthquakes are common in seismically active regions like Pangasinan. — Artemio A. Dumlao

Manufacturers: Yearlong war in Iran spells ‘trouble’

March 19, 2026 | 8:20 pm

By Beatriz Marie D. Cruz, Reporter

MANUFACTURERS can absorb the impact of the Iran crisis without disruption to their operations if fighting ends soon, though they expect to undergo a round of “belt-tightening,” the Federation of Philippines Industries, Inc. (FPI) said.

“The immediate thing that we need to do is to tighten our belts and be more efficient,” FPI Chairman Elizabeth H. Lee told reporters on the sidelines of an event Thursday.

“If this war is not prolonged, then that will be okay. Plans can still continue,” she said. “If it’s going to be a year, we might be in trouble.”

Some measures manufacturers are looking into include conserving electricity, reducing overseas travel, and carpooling, Ms. Lee said.

Some producers are also considering shortening factory hours to four or five days a week, from the usual six-day production week, she said, adding that downsizing is not yet on the table.

Ms. Lee called on the need to upgrade to high-value manufacturing, which she said will be more resilient against external shocks.

“Right now, majority (of operations involve) assembly. We need to move up to higher-value manufacturing so we can absorb more labor instead of sending people outside of the country,” she said.

The Philippines should also turn more decisively to renewable energy because manufacturing is sensitive to high fuel costs, she added.

Ms. Lee said that one of the positives is that the rise in import costs will dampen smuggling.

Separately, the Persian Gulf crisis has pushed many firms into a “wait-and-see” mode instead of proceeding with their expansion plans, Management Association of the Philippines (MAP) President Donald Patrick L. Lim said.

“Business will always want to operate with a certain level of certainty. If there’s a lot of uncertainty, ang hirap tuloy mag-planning (planning becomes more difficult)” he told reporters on the sidelines of an event Wednesday.

He noted that MAP members are studying the possibility of a two-day work-from-home setup to conserve energy and ease transport costs.

“We might consider that. But of course, nothing yet carved in stone, because everyone is still exploring,” he said.

The private sector has also focused on weekly planning to better anticipate the effects of the crisis, Mr. Lim added.

BIR spells out VAT exemption mechanism for electricity generated from domestic gas

March 19, 2026 | 8:19 pm

By Sheldeen Joy Talavera, Reporter

THE RULES for claiming the 12% value-added tax (VAT) exemption for electricity generated from domestic natural gas have been issued, effectively operationalizing Republic Act (RA) No. 12120, the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) said.

Revenue Regulations No. 2-2026 lay down how to avail of the fiscal incentives authorized by RA 12120, or the Philippine Natural Gas Industry Development Act.

It said the incentive applies to the purchase and sale of indigenous natural gas by generation facilities for transactions covered by power supply agreements, or for power intended to be offered on the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market, as well as electricity generated to supply ancillary services.

The National Internal Revenue Code of 1997 imposes taxes on the sale of goods and services, including electricity. However, the natural gas law offers fiscal incentives such as exemptions for the purchase and sales of indigenous natural gas, aggregated gas, and power generated by generation facilities.

The gas supplier is required to obtain certification from the Department of Energy (DoE) Oil Industry Management Bureau, indicating the volume and percentage of domestic gas sold.

Generation facilities that utilize indigenous gas exempt from VAT also need to secure certification from the bureau.

Signed into law last year, RA 12120 aims to develop the natural gas industry by privatizing the procurement and use of the resources, offering tax advantages over imported natural gas and other conventional energy sources.

Currently, the Malampaya gas field is the country’s only producing indigenous gas field, which supplies about 20% of Luzon’s electricity requirements.

Edgar Benedict C. Cutiongco, president of the Philippine Petroleum Association, said the guidelines “support the country’s long‑term goal of developing and utilizing our own energy resources.”

“Reducing the tax burden on locally produced gas can help moderate the fuel cost of gas‑fired power plants, contributing to more stable electricity prices for consumers,” Mr. Cutiongco told BusinessWorld.

“More importantly, it strengthens the role of indigenous natural gas as a dependable transition fuel while the country continues to expand renewable energy,” he added.

Manila Electric Co. (Meralco), the country’s largest private electric utility, sourced around 21% of its power supply requirements last month from two major gas-fired power plants in Batangas.

Meralco Vice-President and Head of Utility Economics Lawrence S. Fernandez said the company has yet to determine the extent the impact of the VAT exemption on power bills but sees reduction in charges.

“Since this will be a VAT exemption, the reduction will not be reflected in the generation charge component of the bill, but in the VAT portion,” Mr. Fernandez told BusinessWorld, adding that consumers may expect smaller charges as soon as the tax exemption is implemented by the gas facilities.

The Petroleum Association of the Philippines (PAP) has said that maximizing the use of domestic natural gas could ease pressure on electricity prices as it will cut dependence on imported fuel .

“If we use more (domestic) gas now, it would help reduce the price,” PAP Chairperson Donnabel Kuizon Cruz said.

LRT-2, MRT-3 fare discounts to take effect on March 23

March 19, 2026 | 8:18 pm

THE DEPARTMENT of Transportation (DoTr) said 50% discounts on all Metro Rail Transit Line 3 (MRT-3) and Light Rail Transit Line 2 (LRT-2) rides will take effect Monday, to provide relief to commuters.

“(The DoTr) is prioritizing continuous operations and affordable rates at all our trains,” Transportation Acting Secretary Giovanni Z. Lopez said in a statement on Thursday.

On Wednesday, the DoTr postponed the scheduled fare increases for public utility vehicles (PUVs) after President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. ordered its deferral, saying commuters are already burdened by rising fuel and commodity prices.

The discount for the commuter trains will be in effect until further notice, the DoTr said, noting that the reduced fare applies to all passengers including regular beep, or stored-value card holders, and those using e-wallets and other digital alternatives.

White Beep card holders will continue to enjoy their 50% fare discounts in the case of students, senior citizens, and persons with disabilities.

The agency is be working the Light Rail Manila Corp. (LRMC), the operator of LRT-1, to offer the same discounts.

BusinessWorld approached LRMC for comment but it had not responded at the deadline.

The Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board on Tuesday approved fare increases for PUVs, citing the surge in fuel, maintenance and operating expenses since the Iran war began. The order had covered jeepneys, provincial and city buses, airport taxis, and transportation network vehicle services.

Mr. Marcos assured transport workers that the government is ramping up its assistance which include cash relief and fuel vouchers.

The DoTr said it is expediting the release of fuel subsidies for qualified drivers and operators as additional assistance.

It said it is also working with toll road operators to offering discounts to motorists.

As of writing, both toll operators — Metro Pacific Tollways Corp. and San Miguel Corp. have yet to announce any such action on tolls. — Ashley Erika O. Jose

PCA warns of coco industry impact if biofuel blending rules suspended

March 19, 2026 | 8:17 pm

THE Philippine Coconut Authority (PCA) said proposals to suspend biodiesel blending requirement will have a negative impact on coconut oil prices, to the detriment of farmers and oil mills.

In a statement Thursday, the PCA said: “Any suspension or displacement of CME (coco methyl ester) in favor of imported palm methyl ester (PME) will likely redirect domestic supply to lower-priced export markets, thereby exerting downward pressure on copra and coconut oil prices.”

The PCA also said a reduction in the use of domestically-produced CME could undermine the viability of 14 domestic production facilities and threaten jobs.

Instead of fully suspending the use of CME in the diesel blend, the PCA advocated for an adjustment in the biodiesel blend, from the current 3% (known as B3) to possibly 2%, or even the retention of the 3% level.

By being blended into fuels like diesel, CME adds to the cost at retail level. CME is also more expensive than PME because the palm oil industry is more efficient and industrialized than the Philippine coconut industry.

The PCA offered no objection to deferring the required increase in the biodiesel blend to 5%.

On Monday, the House of Representatives approved a bill allowing the suspension of mandatory biofuel blending for up to one year if blended fuel prices become at least 5% costlier than unblended fuel.

Tthe Biofuels Act of 2006 requires that all liquid fuels sold in the Philippines for use in motors and engines be blended with biofuels. — Vonn Andrei E. Villamiel

Water infra projects to be expedited in Bohol, Palawan, Masbate, Cebu

March 19, 2026 | 8:17 pm

[MANILA WATER]faucet-gad122e1ab_1920 — PHILSTAR FILE PHOTO

THE DEPARTMENT of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) said it plans to expedite water infrastructure projects, with a particular focus on 59 barangays in “water-stressed” parts of Bohol, Palawan, Cebu, and Masbate.

Acting Environment Secretary Juan Miguel T. Cuna said the DENR authorized regional offices to act as “permitting accelerators,” to reduce delays in water system development.

The DENR said one-stop kiosks will also be introduced to allow applicants for water-related projects to monitor permits and access technical data.

The DENR said the changes aim to address mounting pressure on water resources.

“The Philippines is facing a challenge of water bankruptcy. We are meeting this challenge with science and a clear tactical roadmap,” Mr. Cuna said at a briefing Thursday.

The DENR said its Water Resources Management Office is entering the final phase of a P485-million roadmap for 2024 to 2026, which aims to serve 441,000 people by year’s end.

The final phase of the roadmap includes expanding potable water access to the 59 barangays in the four provinces cited above.

The DENR said key interventions include the installation of desalination and filtration systems to reduce water costs and the extension of service networks through financial assistance for 13 water districts.

“Furthermore, 25 target sites are slated for new water refilling equipment to provide drinking water at a fixed price of P16 per container,” the DENR said in a statement.

The DENR said it also plans to complete eight infiltration gallery projects by year-end, tapping subsurface river flows as a climate-resilient water source.

In upland communities, new systems integrating micro-hydropower are scheduled for 11 barangays, combining water supply with small-scale energy generation, it added.

The DENR said it is also conducting surveys in 28 priority areas to identify groundwater sources before drilling to mitigate project risks.

A national monitoring platform will be launched to track surface and groundwater use, the DENR added. — Vonn Andrei E. Villamiel

Congress think tank calls farm-to-market road program ‘underfunded’

March 19, 2026 | 8:17 pm

THE farm-to-market road program is “underfunded” while much of the support it does get is often “misallocated,” according to the congressional think tank.

The Congressional Policy and Budget Research Department (CPBRD) said 64,155 kilometers (km) of road remains unbuilt and estimated the backlog at more than 20 years if reforms are not implemented.

“Farm-to-market road development has been underfunded and misallocated, limiting their potential to enhance agricultural productivity and promote overall rural development,” Rosemarie R. Sawali and Krishna Margaret U. Mirida said in the report.

The Philippine farm industry generally lacks efficient transport infrastructure, they said, noting that efforts to improve agricultural roads started in 1997 with the signing of the Agriculture and Fisheries Modernization Act. At the time, the needed roads were estimated at 131,410 km to fully service farm lots.

About 67,255 km of farm‑to‑market roads had been built as of 2022, according to the CPBRD.

Progress has remained sluggish, the think tank added, with only 3,851 km completed under President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.’s administration so far despite his pledge to streamline construction.

“Even taking the fastest recorded pace in recent years, the backlog would still require about 26 years to address,” the CPBRD said.

It said the government must establish a budget allocation framework that would help promote “equitable distribution” of funding for such roads, with the think tank noting that only five regions took up more than half of the P90.32 billion allotted for the project since 2023.

“Notably, none of these regions were among the top five with the highest number of farm-to-market road proposals, indicating a possible mismatch between resource allocation and local requirements,” the CPBRD said.

It added that a “well-defined” budgeting framework could reduce the risk of politicizing projects and “minimize, if not eliminate, risks of project insertion.”

The Department of Agriculture (DA) has been tasked with overseeing farm‑to‑market road projects in the wake of the corruption scandal that engulfed the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) in the wake of the discovery last year of poorly built or even nonexistent flood control projects.

“Stronger monitoring practices should be complemented by legislation that establishes clear accountability measures, including appropriate sanctions for government officials and contractors who engage in corrupt practices,” the CPBRD said.

The government must increase funding for the road linkages program to close the backlog, recommending that the authorities pursue public-private partnerships along the agricultural supply chain to streamline the delivery of produce, the CPBRD said.

The CPBRD added that a nationwide assessment of the farm-to-market road program must be carried out to identify bottlenecks hampering progress. — Kenneth Christian L. Basilio

Port regulator freezes plans to raise port user charges

March 19, 2026 | 8:17 pm

Batangas Port — COAST GUARD DISTRICT SOUTHERN TAGALOG/PNA

THE Philippine Ports Authority (PPA) said it is holding off on increasing terminal fees as part of a package of measures to ease the travel experience, which include the rollout of an online passenger reservation system.

In a statement Thursday, the port regulator said its relief measures are in response to the global oil shock that is raising the cost of travel.

It added port user fees are not tied to fuel prices and any increases can be postponed.

“The maritime agencies are strategizing to make the commute easier especially for the upcoming peak season. (They are) in middle of talks regarding a new online reservation assistance system,” it said.

Earlier this month, the PPA said it does not foresee operational disruption at the ports, though the Persian Gulf crisis could affect freight rates, bunker costs, and cargo volumes.

In March, the Maritime Industry Authority said it authorized ship operators to collect a fuel surcharge of up to 20% of base fares, among other measures, to promote the efficient use of fuel.

Regional shipping lines raised passenger and cargo rates by up to 25% following a surge in fuel costs after global crude benchmarks exceeded $100 per barrel. — Ashley Erika O. Jose

Creative industry expands to P2.12 trillion in 2025, but growth momentum slows

March 19, 2026 | 8:11 pm

261224_MMFF-JR-5 — PHILIPPINE STAR/RYAN BALDEMOR

By Heather Caitlin P. Mañago

THE VALUE of the Philippines’ creative economy rose to P2.12 trillion in 2025, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported on Thursday.

The PSA said the gross value added (GVA) of the creative industry expanded 6.9% to P2.12 trillion in 2025.

However, the growth rate slowed from the 10.9% posted in 2024, as well as the 12.4% reported in 2023.

The creative economy thus accounted for 7.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices in 2025, against the 7.5% posted in 2024.

The creative economy is composed of industries like film, digital services, research and development, media publishing, music, arts, entertainment, advertising, art galleries, museums and trade shows.

According to the PSA, symbols and images and other related activities had the largest share at 31.6% or P670.15 billion of the industry’s GVA in 2025. These include manufacturing and trading of symbols and images in textiles, fashion, toys, footwear, furniture and other accessories.

Digital interactive goods and service activities accounted for a 19.7% share or P416.33 billion, while advertising, research and development, and other artistic service activities posted a share of 15.9% or P337.64 billion.

Meanwhile, traditional cultural expression activities made up 14.3% or P303.15 billion of the industry’s total GVA.

In 2025, the creative industries employed 8.71 million people, down 0.4%.

“The share of employment in creative industries to the total employment in the country was registered at 17.8% in 2025,” the PSA said.

Of the total jobs in the creative sector, 33% in the traditional cultural expression activities, equivalent to 2.88 million jobs.

Symbols and images and other related activities employed 2.36 million, representing 27.1% of the industry’s jobs, while advertising, research and development, and other artistic service activities employed 2.07 million, representing 23.7%.

“The increase in GVA of the creative industry in 2025 can be attributed to committed government support through the Philippine Creative Industries Act,” Cid L. Terosa, senior economist at the University of Asia and the Pacific, said in an e-mail.

He added that dynamic demand for high-value subsectors like advertising, gaming, and digital marketing also pushed the GVA higher.

Ser Percival K. Peña-Reyes, director of the Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development, noted that the industry is transitioning into a more sustainable phase.

“The rise in the Philippine creative sector’s GVA… reflects continued expansion, but the slower growth rate suggests moderating momentum,” Mr. Peña-Reyes said via Viber.

He said that while the sector “held its ground better than much of the rest of the economy,” it faced cyclical constraints such as a “base effect,” where sustaining double-digit growth becomes harder as the industry matures.

However, analysts pointed to several factors that dampened the sector’s performance.

Mr. Terosa noted that Philippine growth slowed in 2025, with higher inflation pulling demand away from “non-basic or discretionary spending for creative services.”

He also cited the “lack of human capital for creative jobs” as a barrier to actualizing growth potential.

In 2025, the economy expanded by 4.4%, much weaker than the 5.7% growth posted in 2024. This was the weakest reading in five years. GDP had contracted 9.5% in 2020.

Average inflation for 2025 settled at 1.7%, easing from 3.2% in 2024. This was the lowest reading since the 1.3% recorded in 2016.

Meanwhile, Mr. Peña-Reyes highlighted emerging disruptions, noting that “AI and technology shifts… introduce competition through the automation of creative tasks and raise concerns about job displacement and copyright.”

Mr. Terosa said government plans to position creative industry at the center of its trade, tourism, and investment programs, with the aim of showcasing these efforts during the Philippines’ 2026 ASEAN chairmanship.

“Growing digital technology and AI adoption bode well for the growth prospects of the industry in 2026,” he added.

However, Mr. Terosa warned that a prolonged conflict among the US, Israel, and Iran could weigh heavily on the industry in 2026 due to “war-related inflation, supply disruptions, and spending slowdown.”

Mr. Peña-Reyes noted that if structural gaps — such as limited access to financing and the need for stronger intellectual property protection — are addressed, the creative economy could accelerate again beyond 2026 and account for a larger portion of GDP.

Policy responses to cost-of-living crisis seen neglecting middle class

March 19, 2026 | 8:09 pm

grocery-supermarket-shopper- — PHILIPPINE STAR/RUSSELL A. PALMA

By Erika Mae P. Sinaking

THE issues facing middle-income households have not been adequately addressed by government policy responses to the cost-of-living crisis, analysts said.

“The middle class is underrepresented in policymaking,” Jose Enrique A. Africa, executive director of IBON Foundation, told BusinessWorld at the Pandesal Forum in Quezon City.

He noted that the broadness of the middle-income category, where the income band runs from P25,000–P30,000 to around P200,000 or P250,000 in monthly income — fails to reflect the economic vulnerability of most families in that range.

According to Mr. Africa, only a small segment of households can be considered securely middle class or affluent, while the vast majority remain economically precarious.

“The secure middle class and the rich represent at most only 10% to 15% of families,” he said. “So we’re talking about 80% to 85% of families who are either poor or in a middle class that is not secure, but vulnerable”.

He said the government’s current reliance on targeted social aid is a “shortcut for saving money” by focusing only on the smallest possible groups to minimize expenditure. He argued that the government must move away from the mindset that it lacks resources.

“It is a policy choice for the government as to who will bear the burden of adjusting to the crisis,” he said.

Teodoro A. Casiño, chairman of Bagong Alyansang Makabayan (Bayan), said government support should not be limited to lower-income households, as middle-income families are also experiencing significant strain from rising prices.

“The middle income categories have resilience, so the government usually prioritizes the lower income categories,” he said.

He added that broader interventions, such as suspending the excise tax and value-added tax (VAT) on fuel, could provide relief not only to the poor but also to middle-income earners. These measures were also among the demands of transport groups Thursday at the start of the transport strike.

“It cannot be purely targeted only at the poor or lower income because even the middle incomes are also suffering,” he said. “Many middle-income households rely on transportation and LPG, which are directly affected by fuel price increases.”

Mr. Casiño said that without policy intervention, middle-income households could risk slipping into poverty as economic pressures persist.

Despite the challenges, he said middle-income households have some capacity to adapt, particularly through investments in renewable energy such as solar power systems.

“They are the ones who have the capacity to invest in that; they just need incentives,” he said, adding that expanding access to solar energy could help households reduce long-term electricity costs, though upfront expenses remain a barrier without policy support.

Regarding the labor market, Mr. Africa said informality and underemployment may worsen as households adjust to weaker economic conditions, with some workers taking on additional jobs or shifting to less stable forms of work.

To fund the needed interventions, Mr. Africa proposed a wealth tax on the 3,000 Philippine billionaires, whose combined wealth isP8.2 trillion. He calculated that a tax of 1% to 3% on this group could generate P500 to P600 billion a year.

He noted that the 15 richest Filipinos have a combined wealth of P2.6 trillion—exceeding the total wealth of the poorest 15 million families.

“As long as the government considers the profits, income, and wealth of the rich to be sacrosanct, they are actually the ones tying their own hands,” Mr. Africa said.

“They are shutting themselves out from generating the revenue for the fiscal stimulus and subsidies that not just these households need, but even the economy needs,” he added.

China restricts fertilizer exports, further crimping war-tightened supply

March 19, 2026 | 6:46 pm

CHINA is clamping down on fertilizer exports to protect its domestic market, a number of industry sources said, putting an additional strain on global markets that were already grappling with shortages caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran.

China is among the largest fertilizer exporters – shipping more than $13 billion worth of it last year – and it has a history of controlling exports to keep prices low for farmers.

Shipments through the war-blocked Strait of Hormuz account for roughly one-third of the sea-borne supply. In mid-March, Beijing banned exports of nitrogen-potassium fertilizer blends and certain phosphate varieties, sources told Reuters.

The ban, which has not been formally unveiled, was reported earlier this week by Bloomberg News.

Added to existing bans and export quotas for urea, only a handful of fertilizers – notably ammonium sulphate – can be exported, five sources said. That would mean between half and three quarters of China’s exports last year are restricted, potentially up to 40 million metric tons, according to a Reuters estimate.

“This pattern is consistent: China restricts supplies rather than coming to the rescue during global tightness,” said Matthew Biggin, a senior commodities analyst at BMI.

“The export restrictions exist because of their tight domestic balance – they’re prioritizing food security and insulating their domestic market from price shocks.”

Beijing’s curbs, like its move last week to ban refined fuel exports, come as governments limit exports of products whose inputs have been threatened by disruption from the war, worsening shortages and higher prices around the world.

International urea prices have risen by around 40% from pre-war levels. In China, urea futures are near a 10-month high.

DEPENDENT ON CHINA
Fertilizers are essential for plant growth and crop yields. Higher prices could lead to reduced usage, or farmers could switch to crops that require less fertilizer.

Last year, China sent Brazil, Indonesia, and Thailand roughly a fifth of their fertilizer imports and that figure stood at a third for Malaysia and New Zealand, according to International Trade Centre data. For India, it was around 16%, according to its trade data.

Between half and 80% of those exports are now restricted, according to a Reuters analysis of Chinese customs data.

“Buyers were hoping China would step in and fill the supply gap, but this decision will only tighten supplies further,” a New Delhi-based fertilizer company official said, in reference to the recent restrictions.

The company official declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.

India, which imported more than 40% of its urea, a nitrogen-based fertilizer, and DAP, a blend, from the Middle East last year, has requested China issue export quotas for urea.

WHEN WILL EXPORTS RESUME?
The Philippines on Wednesday said China had assured it that fertilizer exports would not be restricted.

Asked about the comments a day later, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson referred the question to other departments.

China’s General Administration of Customs, National Development and Reform Commission and Ministry of Commerce did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

At a fertilizer conference in Shanghai attended by Reuters on Wednesday, five salespeople said they did not expect the fertilizer bans to be lifted before August, after China’s peak June-to-August export period.

Producers are watching for signals from the government after spring planting to see whether bans would be extended.

In December, the state-linked fertilizer association urged major producers to suspend exports of phosphate fertilizers until August.

“Most folks who follow this very, very closely are expecting them to continue to extend the export bans,” said Caitlin Welsh, a director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“China is so reluctant to do anything that would increase the price of grains, especially animal feed, domestically.” — Reuters

Eala will fall 20 spots in WTA ranking upon expiration of earned Miami Open points

March 19, 2026 | 6:23 pm

UNLESS Alexandra “Alex” Eala replicates her final four finish last year in the Miami Open, she’s tipped to drastically fall in the Women’s Tennis Association (WTA) rankings with at least a 20-spot drop following the expiration of ranking points on Thursday.

The main draw of the WTA-1000 level tour kicked off on Wednesday, scrapping all the points harvested by all players in last year’s edition, including 390 from Ms. Eala after a stellar run all the way from a wildcard in the qualifiers to being the first WTA semifinalist.

And as per the WTA live rankings, the effect is in full force right away as it dragged Ms. Eala to No. 50 from a new career-best of No. 29 this week following a Last 16 finish in the Indian Wells Open with 1525 points.

She’s back to 1145 now and should she fail to go deep while the players ahead of her advance farther, Ms. Eala could slip to the border of Top 60.

In total, Ms. Eala only lost 380 points so far, getting 10 points back due to a first-round bye as the No. 31 seed in the stacked 128-player field headlined by Top 32 players as well as former and current Grand Slam champions.

The official WTA ranking update will reflect on Monday on a weekly basis and it’s on Ms. Eala to turn the tide starting with a Round 2 duel against No. 53 Laura Siegemund of Germany, who beat No. 76 Petra Marcinko of Croatia, 6-4, 6-4, in Round 1.

Mses. Eala and Siegemund were scheduled to battle before lunch on Wednesday but it has been pushed back to 12 a.m. (Manila time) at the earliest after heavy rains disrupted other matches in Miami.

Her first duel, albeit in Round 2 already, will set the tone on whether she could get those points back or lose it altogether. She needs four wins to do it and return to the semifinals, where either her good friend and world No. 4 Coco Gauff or No. 6 Amanda Anisimova could be waiting.

Inch by inch, she could trim the deduction with 35, 65, 120 and 215 points up for grabs in Rounds 2, 3, 4 and quarterfinals, respectively.

And giants in the lower bracket are waiting in line to foil that.

After Ms. Siegemund, no less than world No. 3 Iga Swiatek of Poland with some heavy ax to grind possibly awaits Ms. Eala by the third round. Ms. Swiatek was part of Ms. Eala’s titan-slaying spree in Miami that shattered the gates wide open for her rise, alongside Latvia’s Jelena Ostapenko and USA’s Madison Keys, before she fell against world No. 5 Jessica Pegula also from the USA.

Ms. Swiatek, also with a first-round bye as the No. 2 seed in Miami, will face her compatriot Magda Linette in Round 2. Ms. Linette, WTA No. 50, stormed back against France’s Varvara Gracheva, 2-6, 6-2, 6-0.

World No. 14 Karolina Muchova of Czechia or No. 16 Clara Tauson of Denmark by Round 4 and then either world No. 9 Victoria Mboko of Canada or No. 10 Mirra Andreeva of Russia are projected to stand in the way in the next two rounds for Ms. Eala to get in the semis.

“Run it back,” she beamed, declaring an all-out battle to protect what’s hers and to prove that she belongs among the world’s best of the best.

Meanwhile, reigning champion and world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka of Belarus or world No. 2 Elena Rybakina of Kazakhstan headline the upper bracket and should be in a collision course for the other finale slot. — John Bryan Ulanday