By Karishma Vaswani
INDONESIA hasn’t suffered a major terrorist attack in more than two years. But this calm is deceptive. The threat has shifted online, making it harder to detect, and potentially more insidious.
This isn’t an isolated problem. Islamic State used online radicalization and recruitment to draw fighters to Syria and Iraq, extending its influence to the Sahel and Afghanistan.
But recently the digital terror threat is becoming more urgent in Southeast Asia. Singapore’s latest security assessment warns of a worrying trend of individuals being exposed to extremist groups on social media. Physical training camps or sermons are no longer necessary for the ideology to spread, raising the risk of homegrown attacks, and complicating counterterrorism efforts.
Indonesia and the Philippines remain among some of the most affected by terrorism in the region, along with Myanmar and Thailand, according to the Global Terrorism Index 2025. Jakarta and Manila’s scores improved, but their governments can’t afford to ignore future threats. Radicalization, recruitment, and financing are moving into the digital space, making for a far more challenging enemy.
Southeast Asia’s demographics make it particularly vulnerable. Several nations have among the world’s largest youth populations. With widespread smartphone access and high social media penetration, children and teens are especially exposed. Ignoring this means a new generation could get radicalized well before adulthood.
Still, there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic. Indonesian officials have lauded what’s been dubbed a “Zero Attack” phenomenon since 2023. Last year, Jemaah Islamiyah, once the region’s most feared terrorist group, and responsible for the 2002 Bali bombings, said it was formally disbanding. In the Philippines, the partial decommissioning of the armed wing of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is encouraging, notwithstanding recent concerns over tensions in the group.
These successes shouldn’t mean complacency. Israel’s war in Gaza, and the sense of injustice it fuels around the Muslim world, is feeding extremist narratives. Online platforms provide ample space for these messages to spread, often beyond the realm of conventional policing.
Funding shortfalls also increase vulnerabilities. Earlier this year, President Prabowo Subianto’s administration announced a budget cut to several agencies, including the National Counterterrorism Agency. This risks underfunding the institutions vital for detecting future threats.
Indonesia’s next generation of extremists is being groomed digitally. In May, police in South Sulawesi arrested an 18-year-old for spreading Islamic State propaganda online, and threatening bomb attacks on social media. Last year, authorities blocked more than 180,000 online posts linked to intolerance, radicalism, extremism and terrorism originating from radical groups.
The most chilling trend is the targeting of children. Authorities say extremist groups linked to Islamic State are luring minors as young as 12 through digital channels, often without parents and teachers realizing until it’s too late. In Central Java, a young boy joined an Islamic State-linked terror group after being radicalized virtually.
These extremist groups are also exploiting Southeast Asia’s booming digital economy. Online gaming, projected to reach $15.21 billion by 2033, remains underregulated, making it easier for anonymous fundraising, money laundering and illicit transfers.
Indonesia’s counterterrorism strategies have been successful in the past. At one point, the world’s most populous Muslim nation was considered a haven of terror by US and American officials worried about al-Qaeda using it as a base. But after the Bali bombings killed more than 200 people, Densus 88, the nation’s elite counterterrorism unit, cracked down. It dismantled terror networks — sometimes brutally — and forced militants into deradicalization programs.
These methods need to evolve for the modern era. Indonesia “risks facing a new and more complex wave of radicalization,” notes Muhammad Makmun Rasyid, a member of the Bureau for the Prevention of Extremism and Terrorism, at the Indonesian Council of Ulama.
Modern militancy can’t be policed solely by security agencies. It requires a whole-of-society response. Protecting young people will need early detection and education, not punishment. Indonesia’s counterterrorism agency has begun strengthening community-level prevention, but more training for teachers, parents, and religious leaders is vital.
Regional coordination must also deepen. Extremist networks often exploit policy gaps between nations. Countries are already working together to stem terror financing and improve intelligence sharing, but efforts remain fragmented. Cyber cooperation between the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations is growing, but the bloc lacks formal mechanisms that could help law enforcement. Real-time intelligence sharing has made progress, but it isn’t seamless.
Indonesia and its neighbors have shown they can dismantle terror groups. But the absence of bombs doesn’t mean the absence of danger.
BLOOMBERG OPINION
