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Fitch Solutions slashes PHL consumer spending growth outlook

FITCH Solutions Macro Research said it downgraded its 2020 household spending growth outlook for the Philippines to 3.4% from 5.8% previously before the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak.

Fitch Solutions said the lockdown imposed to prevent the spread of COVID-19 has altered purchasing

patterns, with households devoting funds to priority purchases such as food and health care and cutting out non-essentials.

“For consumers in countries where a lockdown has been initiated, and for consumers who believe that their governments might implement this measure, the spending focus is narrowing further, with a concentration on priority purchases (food and non-alcoholic drink and health spending),” it said in a note issued Tuesday.

Spending meant for food and non-alcoholic beverages will continue to gain traction throughout the year even though panic-buying has subsided, Fitch Solutions said.

Consumers could also prioritize health-related products. Fitch Solutions has noted reports of a surge in vitamin sales.

“We expect more over-the-counter medication sales, with consumers seeking medicine and health-related purchases during the pandemic,” it said.

Fitch Solutions said the worst-hit segments during the outbreak include clothing and footwear, which are being crowded out even in the e-commerce channel where platforms are emphasizing food delivery. It also noted that in China, clothing and footwear sales in March fell 46.8%.

Even if they wanted to, it said, consumers would be unable to spend on non-essential because many stores selling such goods are closed.

Fitch Solutions added that consumers will also cut down on electronics purchases as well as travel during the lockdown.

“However, streaming services like Netflix will see increased demand — the streaming service has already had to place caps on video quality to avoid overburdening its platform,” it said.

Fitch Solutions said it expects school fees and education spending to fall if the authorities order tuition fee refunds and waivers while schools are shut. It noted that the Commission on Higher Education has encouraged private universities and institutes to allow delays in tuition payments during the emergency. — Luz Wendy T. Noble

DoE asks ethanol producers to produce more ethyl alcohol

THE Department of Energy (DoE) has asked ethanol producers to help raise the supply of ethyl alcohol, stocks of which are currently running low after a spike in demand for disinfecting materials during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak.

In a statement Tuesday, the department said it has written the Ethanol Producers Association of the Philippines (EPAP) to devote a portion of their anhydrous bioethanol products to make ethyl alcohol.

Listed firm Roxas Holdings, Inc., through its two bioethanol units Roxol Bioenergy Corp. and San Carlos Bioenergy, Inc., earlier donated more than 50,000 liters of ethanol to various public agencies and groups.

“We are hoping that other bioethanol producers follow suit and heed our call for them to allocate a portion of their product towards 70% ethyl alcohol production, as part of their Corporate Social Responsibility programs,” Energy Secretary Alfonso G. Cusi said.

Mr. Cusi said in an ANC interview that the supply of alcohol is running low.

“Now we need alcohol to disinfect and we are short of alcohol,” he said.

He also said that the DoE is considering policy adjustments to suspend the 10% ethanol blending requirement for gasoline products to divert such inventory to disinfecting alcohol.

The Independent Philippine Petroleum Companies Association (IPPCA) on Monday told BusinessWorld that it supports such a suspension as it will be “more beneficial for the economy.”

EPAP has yet to reply to a request for comment at deadline time. — Adam J. Ang

Expert cites ‘flattening’ curve for local COVID-19 infections

By Vann Marlo M. Villegas , Reporter

LOCAL coronavirus infections may have slowed after a Luzon-wide lockdown that started on March 17, an expert from the Ateneo de Manila University’s School of Medicine and Public Health said on Tuesday.

It now takes about four days for COVID-19 cases to double from one to two days before, Ateneo associate professor John Wong said at a news briefing.

“We would expect that the flattening would continue, meaning we will have very few additional cases,” he said.

In epidemiology, the idea of slowing a virus’ spread so that fewer people need to seek treatment at a time is known as flattening the curve.

Countries worldwide including the Philippine have imposed lockdowns and asked people to observe social distancing to slow the virus spread.

The curve researchers are talking about refers to the projected number of people who will get infected over time.

The Department of Health (DoH) reported 199 more infections yesterday, bringing the total to 9,684.

The death toll climbed to 637 after 14 more patients died, it said in a bulletin. Ninety-three more patients have gotten well, bringing the total recoveries to 1,408, it added.

Of the 199 new cases, 87% or 173 were from Metro Manila, 0.5% or one were from Central Visayas and 12.5% or 252 came from other regions, DoH said.

Mr. Wong, who is part of an inter-agency task force against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), said the flattening of the curve became evident around April 1, two weeks after the lockdown.

It takes 4.6 days for COVID-19 cases to double in in Metro Manila, 5.8 days for the rest of Luzon, 5.4 days in Visayas and 5.3 days in Mindanao, Mr. Wong said in a report.

It now takes 5.7 days to double the death toll nationwide, 5.6 days for Metro Manila, 7.8 days for the rest of Luzon, seven days in the Visayas and 7.7 days for Mindanao, he said.

Mr. Wong noted that aside from expanding the country’s health care and testing capacities, the government should also enforce social distancing measures, cough etiquette and hygiene to contain the pandemic.

“If and when we lift the enhanced community quarantine, they will know how to behave and would be able to prevent or delay another resurgence,” he said.

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario S. Vergeire said people should not become complacent.

“The moment that we lift our restrictions, there would be a resurgence,” she said at the same briefing. “We need to continue this into the new normal.”

Meanwhile, DoH said 1,819 health care workers have been infected with the virus, 350 of whom have recovered and 34 have died.

The agency said 117,853 people have been tested —12,367 were positive and 105,226 were negative.

The positive results were more than the confirmed cases because they still need to be validated and processed.

DoH said 43 provinces had not recorded COVID-19 cases in the past two weeks, 23 of which had no infections since the outbreak started.

DepEd moves class opening to August

THE Department of Education (DepEd) on Tuesday said it would move the opening of classes this year to August from June as the country battles a novel coronavirus pandemic.

Classes for school year 2020 to 2021 will start on Aug. 24 and end on April 30 next year, Education Secretary Leonor Briones said at a virtual news briefing.

Not all teachers and students will physically report to schools once classes start due to lockdowns enforced in some areas of the country to contain the coronavirus disease 2019, she said.

The Education chief said various approaches will be used to teach students including technology-based learning through computers and mobile phones, media such as television and radio, and other offline methods.

DepEd field units would decide which modes are the most appropriate, Education Undersecretary Nepomuceno Malaluan said at the same briefing.

Students will be made to answer a poll during enrolment about their preferred learning mode and which gadgets they own for technology-based learning, he said.

Teachers report for work starting June to prepare lessons for the school year, Ms. Briones said.

President Rodrigo R. Duterte locked down the entire Luzon island on March 17, suspending work, classes and public transportation to contain the outbreak.

People should stay home except to buy food and other basic goods, he said. The Mr. Mr. Duterte relaxed the lockdown for some areas of the island starting May 1 and extended the so-called enhanced community quarantine for Metro Manila, some cities and provinces until May 15. — Gillian M. Cortez

COVID-19 takes its toll on the Ramadan economy and sense of community

By Amir S. Mawallil

RAMADAN is mainly associated with fasting, but this holy month for the Islamic faith is also about sharing and community.

With public gatherings and congregational prayers in mosques suspended indefinitely because of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, Muslims around the country are finding ways to observe the month-long fast within the confines of quarantine even as they work to adjust to a world changed by the crisis.

Trade fairs, brick and mortar stores, and restaurants in Muslim-populated cities and towns in the country were traditionally lively during the Ramadan as they remained open at night, along with markets for people who shop for iftar, or the meal for breaking their fast.

At night, after the evening Tarawih prayer in mosques, worshippers would usually stop by at cafes and restaurants to bond with friends and family before heading home.

This year, these social and economic activities are not happening.

Restaurants and many shops are closed. With social distancing, and people confined to their homes, the vibrant social part of Ramadan is muted by the very real need to stop the spread of the virus and stay alive.

Hasna Karim-Hamad, owner of the restaurant Hashy’s Cuisine in Cotabato City, said they had to forego their annual act of charity this year as the business switches to survival mode.

“Okay naman, but quite difficult because of the current situation. I used to be able to sponsor iftar at the mosques, but this time, it isn’t so and that makes me so sad,” she said in mixed English and Filipino.

“Last Ramadan I was able to feed for iftar like hundreds of people every day. We didn’t accept many take-out orders because we are focused on the free iftar at the mosques. We were able to perform our umrah hajj (pilgrimage). This time we cannot do this. No more free iftars at the mosques,” she narrated.

“Business at this time? Not good. The struggle is real,” she said.

Her restaurant has tapped social media to attract more customers as they compete with the rising number of online food sellers.

“We need to innovate, make new menus every day so people can look forward to what’s new in the menu. One of our struggles is competition in the online food business. There are many people selling food online, especially during Ramadan now, and people cannot go to the supermarkets to buy their needs,” she said.

“We also need to accept take-out orders, as many as we can because we have bills to settle, we have employees who depend on us especially in these trying times,” she added.

On the side of consumers, spending has been limited as people have temporarily lost their regular income and other sources of livelihood.

Overseas Filipino worker Gamson Tulawie Quijano, Jr., who came home in March for a break, has been on an extended vacation without pay due to the travel restrictions.

The 31-year-old Quijano said while he is able to spend more time with family and doing Tarawih together at home in Zamboanga, he has not been able to visit his hometown Sulu.

“I wasn’t able to return to Qatar due to COVID-19, and the extended lockdown of the National Capital Region up to May 15… my point of origin. Likewise, all incoming flights to and from my province have been suspended up to May 15. However, when these restrictions are lifted, and as soon as the domestic flights are open, I will return to work. In Sha Allah,” he said.

Official government data estimates that around 10 million Muslims live in the Philippines, with majority of them residing in Mindanao.

“This year’s Ramadan is both unique and heartbreaking,” said lawyer Alman N. Namla, an official of the Regional Human Rights Commission.

Mr. Namla said Muslims are adjusting to the new constraints by turning their homes into prayer houses instead of going to the mosques.

“We are so used to flocking the masjids (mosques) every night of Ramadan, as Muslims have done so for more than a thousand years. The masjid is part and parcel of worship in Islam, most specially in this holy month. But, as Muslims, we have to see the wisdom behind our trials and tribulations.”

Amir S. Mawalil, a former BusinessWorld correspondent, is now a member of the Bangsamoro Parliament.

POGOs must still pay taxes, says DoF chief

OFFSHORE gaming operators that are mostly Chinese companies that employ their own citizens are not exempted from tax even after these were classified as part of the business process outsourcing sector, the Finance department said on Tuesday.

“Classification does not exempt them from tax,” Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III told reporters in a Viber message.

The law must specifically give Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators (POGO) tax exemptions, he said, citing the Bureau of Internal Revenue.

The local gaming regulator on Monday said offshore gaming operators in the country offer essential services and should be allowed to operate during the lockdown in Luzon amid a coronavirus pandemic.

The government would let them reopen provided they have paid their tax liabilities, Diane Erica Jogno, a senior offshore gaming officer at the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corp., (PAGCOR) said on Monday.

The country’s anti-coronavirus task force allowed offshore gaming operations here, mostly based in Metro Manila, to reopen with up to 30% of their workforce after they were classified as part of the outsourcing sector.

But the IT and Business Process Association of the Philippines said at the weekend POGOs are not BPO companies, which are licensed by the Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA). POGOs are under the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corp.

In a statement, PAGCOR Assistant Vice-President for Offshore Gaming and Licensing Department Jose S. Tria, Jr. said POGO service providers are not exempted from tax because they are not registered with PEZA. — Beatrice M. Laforga

Sotto lists Senate priorities

THE Senate will prioritize measures seeking to set up a trust fund for coconut farmers and expand benefits to solo parents, Senate President Vicente C. Sotto III said at an online news briefing on Tuesday.

Also to be prioritized are the proposed Medical Scholarship Act and changes to the Revised Penal code to increase penalties for perjury, he said.

The previous Congress had passed the coco levy fund bill but it was vetoed for lacking safeguards.

Congress resumed sessions on May 4 after a two-month Holy Week break. Hearings and sessions are done online because of a Luzon-wide lockdown amid a novel coronavirus pandemic. It will adjourn again on June 5.

The bill on solo parents will give them a 20% discount on their child’s medical needs, basic necessities, tuition and hospital bills of both the child and solo parent.

Mr. Sotto also said the chamber would push scholarships for medical students to increase the number of local health workers.

These measures are on top of a bill that will allow President Rodrigo R. Duterte to change the academic calendar in cases of national emergencies, and the bill seeking to lower corporate income taxes. — Charmaine A. Tadalan

#COVID-19 Regional Updates (05/05/20)

Pangasinan starts COVID-19 mass testing; no new cases since April 25

PANGASINAN, which has not recorded any new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patient since April 25, started mass testing for the virus on May 5 as the provincial government prepares for the possible easing of restrictions by May 16. Provincial Health Officer Anna Maria Teresa de Guzman, in an interview over the local government’s CapitolNewsTV said priority for testing are frontliners and the patients with mild symptoms who are currently under the care of various health facilities at the municipal level. She explained that “the moderate to severe cases” of about 400 who are admitted in hospitals have already been tested and identified which ones are COVID-19 positive. Pangasinan, still under the strict enhanced community quarantine guidelines, had 39 confirmed cases as of May 5, with 26 recoveries, nine deaths, and four still in hospital.

Construction of temporary shelters for Cotabato earthquake victims resumes

CONSTRUCTION work is resuming soon for the adopt-a-home program for families displaced by the series of earthquakes in Cotabato last year as quarantine restrictions in the province have been eased starting May 1. Vice Governor Emmylou T. Mendoza said one shelter is already “ongoing” while computations and procurement of materials and labor are ongoing for the rest. Before the restrictions imposed to mitigate the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in March, the sponsorship-based program was aiming to start building 40 shelters in the town of Tulunan, the epicenter of several earthquakes. “In the time of COVID-19, other beneficiaries returned to their old homes while others lived with their relatives,” Ms. Mendoza said via Viber. In December last year, five units were already turned over to families in the town’s Barangay Magbok. Ms. Mendoza said their overall target is 100 homes for the villages of Magbok and Paraiso. — Maya M. Padillo

Post-COVID-19 wish list

When the pandemic has fizzled out, what will be the new normal?

Certainly if we are to mature and progress as a people, there has to be a reordering of priorities. Following months of isolation, simplicity and silence, we cannot return to the way things were. Hopefully, we will have realized what basically are truly important to us.

Hopefully, instead of idolizing celebrities, whether famous or notorious, we will have discovered our true heroes: Our farmers and fishers, who continued to produce our food. The truckers who deliver these to groceries and markets. Doctors, nurses, midwives and other health workers who risk and actually sacrifice their lives to care for our sick. Store clerks who man our groceries, banks, and pharmacies. Vendors who continue to man their market stalls. Barangay workers and bureaucrats who do the work of distributing cash, rice, sardines and other commodities to the needy including daily wage labanderas who could not go out to earn.

We should have developed deeper empathies for the jeepney, cab, and tricycle drivers and their families who have suffered greatly during the lockdowns when they could not earn a living. Plumbers, carpenters, mechanics and electricians who could not work. Waiters and baristas in the coffee shops where we chat with our friends. And oh, how we miss our hairdressers and barbers.

If our tragic experience has taught us anything, it should have made us realize that most of the people we need the most in our lives also happen to be among the poorest, including those who produce our food.

I am no economist, but it seems that what they call our Gini coefficient, or the gap between our rich and poor is one of the most obscenely huge in the world. We have a few really filthy rich families who land in Forbes’ lists of the richest in the world, and who account for a minuscule percentage of the total number of Filipinos. And we have the vast majority who are living below what might be termed decent lives.

We are basically a Christian nation. And yet, we pretend not to notice that 30-40% of our compatriots are still experiencing involuntary hunger, even before COVID-19. Imagine how much higher that percentage must have grown during the crisis.

Meanwhile, our media content has been heavy on entertainment and lifestyle (of the rich and famous). Going through them can give the impression that we are a first world country. Even the broadcast programs that reach the “masa” (masses) are heavy on light entertainment. Perhaps this accounts for the kind of voters we have today. Over-entertained?

To be fair, many of our big conglomerates have been doing their share in helping the needy during the crisis. They have given away food and health safety tools such as masks, thermometers and protective gear to health workers in hospitals. Some huge conglomerates continued to pay salaries to their employees, including those who cannot report for work, and have given assistance to many of the poor.

A village officer dressed as the Star Wars character Darth Vader rides a small boat to deliver relief goods to residents in the flooded Artex Compound in Malabon on May 4. — REUTERS

We do have a culture of responding to our neighbors’ needs in times of crisis. This has been demonstrated in the aftermath of typhoon Yolanda in Eastern Visayas, in the earthquake in Bohol, in the recent eruption of Taal. But is this crisis-related generosity sustainable?

It seems to me that our politicians and business leaders might want to do some really radical thinking on how we can attain a more egalitarian society. The most prosperous societies tend to be those where the minimum wage workers can live a decently comfortable life. The United States has to contend with the powerful labor unions who had to fight for their rights for years. And yet, businesses in that richest among all nations probably benefited from the increased and broadened purchasing power of their markets as a consequence of the power of the unions.

Our own economy has been kept afloat by the remittances of our heroic OFWs who had to leave home in order to give a better life, including education, to their families. Our highly paid call center agents have boosted economies such as those in Cebu because of the broad increase in purchasing power.

When Lito Osmena was governor of Cebu, he noted that labor strikes here, which led to higher average salaries especially in the industrial parks, were actually good for Cebu because of the enhanced market for local products and services. When the local shipbuilding industry had to contend with the entry of a Korean shipbuilder in Subic, Cebu welders’ salaries were increased, to stem the tide of “piracy” which was good for the economies of the small towns in Western Cebu.

Perhaps we should consider that instead of keeping our wages low as our competitive edge for investments, we should invest in raising our workers’ productivity; and develop higher value-adding industries the way Singapore did.

Hopefully, our experience with the pandemic has enabled our industrialists and other businessmen to realize that there is really little more that they need; and that they can afford to share more of their corporate incomes with their workers.

Perhaps the academe and civic and business organizations can mount a series of conferences with the government once the pandemic has fizzled out, to figure out how to restructure our economy into a sustainably more equitable and egalitarian one. “Left-leaning” parliamentarians should be part of the process. We cannot go on the way things have been.

The armed radical left has it wrong. My old friend Boy Morales, when he was chair of the National Democratic Front, once said to me “When you no longer have the support of the people, that means your politics is wrong.” The NPA has become, to my mind, a bunch of bandits who live on retainers from threatened businesses. The parliamentary struggle which is allowed under our Constitution should be accepted and respected.

We should not accept the administration’s continuing threats against so-called “leftists” as long as they are not violating the laws of the land. The process of raising consciousness about the need for greater justice must be allowed. It can be functional, if we are to undertake the radical reforms that our country needs.

 

Teresa S. Abesamis is a former professor at the Asian Institute of Management and Fellow of the Development Academy of the Philippines.

tsabesamis0114@yahoo.com

Hello, lockdown, goodbye: Exit strategy for COVID-19

Undeniably, the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ), which was imposed by the National Government in the entirety of Luzon, and by different local government units (LGUs) in the other parts of the Philippines, has saved many lives. In its latest report, the University of the Philippines COVID-19 Pandemic Response Team determined that at the time of the imposition of the Luzon-wide ECQ, the virus’ Reproductive Number was hovering at above two to four — the Reproductive Number is used to measure the transmission potential of a disease, and a Reproductive Number of >1 is an indication that the number of cases is increasing. As of April 19, the Reproductive Number in the Philippines is at 1.072. While we have not yet flattened the curve, we can optimistically say that we are slowly getting there.

Undeniably also, the negative economic impact of the imposition of ECQ is quite massive and far-reaching. Not only the private businesses, but even the government is starting to buckle under the financial weight of the ECQ. It comes as no surprise that more and more individuals from the public and private sectors, and even ordinary folks, are advocating for a gradual lifting of the ECQ. To be sure, a shift to normalcy carries with it huge risks. The report from UP COVID-19 Pandemic Response Team warns of an expected surge of COVID-19 cases if the Luzon-wide lockdown is untimely lifted. Thus, the Philippines needs a sustainable exit strategy, which is mindful of both the economy and public health.

One of the aspects of the exit plan which the government must seriously look into is the reopening of businesses and the resultant movement of individuals. With the severity of outbreaks varying markedly across the country, there is a common proposal for the lifting or modification of the ECQ in areas with cases of COVID-19 under control. Under this paradigm, ECQ for low-risk areas are lifted first. The most recent recommendation by the IATF (Inter-Agency Taskforce) favors this kind of geographic segmentation. Another proposal is to implement sector segmentation wherein lower-risk sectors as well as essential sectors of the economy are allowed to reopen.

An important requisite in the implementation of any of these exit proposals is the harmonization of policies issued by different LGUs. Without any collaborative effort on the part of LGUs, the limitation of movement between regions, the enforcement of ECQ in areas still under lockdown, as well as the containment of COVID-19 cases would become major challenges.

The difficulties encountered during the start of the ECQ can actually serve as an illustrative example of the many complications that may arise if policies are not harmonized. When Metro Manila was first placed in a “community quarantine” back in March, the Department of Transportation Task Group’s Guidelines for Management of Emerging Infection Disease required inter-regional public transportation to and from Metro Manila to be terminated at entry points as identified by the PNP (Philippine National Police). This posed a great challenge to individuals residing in the neighboring towns and cities but who worked within the metropolis. Note that at that time, establishments were still allowed to operate. A total of 56 checkpoints at Metro Manila’s different entry points were set up, with police and military personnel performing temperature checks on all passengers. Considering that Metro Manila’s population of 12.88 million swells to around 15 to 16 million during the daytime due to the influx of individuals from neighboring LGUs, it is no wonder that the implementation of these government checkpoints was described to be a “logistical nightmare.” The same problem may arise with the proposed geographic segmentation, as residents from low-risk LGUs may attempt to return to their jobs in LGUs which are still under ECQ and vice versa.

One possible solution to this problem is to enter into reciprocity agreements with other LGUs. This mechanism was previously resorted to by the cities of Cebu, Lapu-Lapu, and Mandaue during the initial stage of the ECQ. Under their reciprocity agreements, cross-border entry of individuals who are exempted from the mandatory stay-at-home orders of the originating LGU was allowed. Further, exempt individuals under the reciprocity agreement were merely asked to show supporting documentation to prove their exempt status. This did away the requirement of securing ECQ passes from different LGUs where the individual would pass through in going to his destination. The clear benefit of these reciprocity agreements is that business establishments which are finally allowed to operate need not worry about their employees being turned away at checkpoints due to conflicting border policies of neighboring LGUs.

Understandably, not all LGUs are willing to enter into reciprocity agreements during the ECQ, especially with an LGU with a burgeoning number of COVID-19 cases. For instance, while the Province of Cebu, just like the cities of Cebu, Lapu-Lapu, and Mandaue, has allowed Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) establishments located within its territorial jurisdiction to continue to operate during the ECQ, BPO employees are not among those individuals who are allowed entry into the Province of Cebu and any of its component cities and municipalities. In effect, a BPO employee who lives in, say, Talisay City, which is within the jurisdiction of Province of Cebu, and goes to work at a BPO in Cebu City, which is outside of the jurisdiction of the Province of Cebu, will not be allowed to go home to Talisay City at the end of his shift even if Talisay City is just adjacent to Cebu City. The rationale for this restriction is valid — that is — to prevent COVID-19 positive individuals from outside the Province of Cebu from inadvertently spreading the virus to any of the latter’s component cities and municipalities.

As a protectionist reaction, it is possible that there may be some LGUs which will continue to impose strict border restrictions even after the implementation of the geographic/sector segmentation. Thus, harmonization of policies and coordination between LGUs is the key. Indeed, a sustainable exit strategy must protect public health, and to the extent possible, prevent a second wave of infection. However, by marooning individuals and keeping employees from going back to work due to strict border restrictions, these LGUs also defeat the very purpose of geographic/sector segmentation, which is to allow the economy to restart and go back to the grind.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author. This article is for general informational and educational purposes, and not offered as, and does not constitute, legal advice or legal opinion.

 

Therese Marie P. Amor is an Associate of the Branch of the Angara Abello Concepcion Regala & Cruz Law Offices (ACCRALAW).

tpamor@accralaw.com

Rebuilding consumer and business confidence towards the new normal

As the government extended the quarantine period further until May 15, a new set of guidelines was released that allowed some businesses to resume, either in partial or full operations. In areas that are still under the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ), the list of businesses allowed to operate was expanded on the condition that proper health precautions are strictly observed. In areas now classified as under general community quarantine (GCQ), most businesses will now be allowed to operate but were reminded to still follow the minimum set of health standards.

Getting back to business in the so-called “new normal” is a welcome development for the entire workforce and will also facilitate the uninterrupted flow of goods affected by the travel bans and lockdowns.

Though consumers are eagerly anticipating the reopening of commercial establishments, such as salons, malls, etc., we should be mindful that in the “new normal” scenario, the strict practice of regular sanitation, disinfection, personal hygiene, wearing of personal protective equipment, and appropriate physical distancing in all public places must be followed.

The immediate operation of businesses is critical in order to transition the local economy from its nearly two months of dormancy. However, both consumer and business confidence may take time to recoup, especially if there is still no assurance that the virus would not continue to take its toll even if all quarantine measures have been lifted.

A previous report from the National Economic Development Authority (NEDA) stated that, “once the enhanced community quarantine is lifted, there may still be reduced economic activity as the public becomes hesitant to engage. The best way to address this problem is to assure the public of the adequacy of our improved health systems.”

Just over the weekend, the number of COVID-19 positive cases in the country surpassed the 9,000 mark. It is also unfortunate that the death toll breached 600. Over the past several weeks, the reported daily new cases has been maintained at around 200.

The Department of Health (DoH) has been cautious in declaring that it had “flattened the curve,” acknowledging that there are limitations in the available data and expansion of testing is still being conducted in different areas of the country. The agency stated that “it is too early to tell whether the Luzon-wide ECQ is effective, but initial imputation analysis seems to suggest that the quarantine is keeping new case numbers steady.”

As of May 3, there are 22 testing laboratories nationwide with daily output of over 5,000 tests per day. However, according to the DoH, these were still less than the testing capacity goal of 8,000 by the end of April.

In order to further expand and reach the goal of 30,000 tests by May 30, the Inter-Agency Task Force — National Task Force (IATF-NTF) and the DoH, with the support from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) launched the public-private task force T3 (Test, Trace and Treat). This expansion in the testing is critical in managing COVID-19 and determining when the ECQ can be modified in selected locations and sectors. The Government has requested the private sector such as hospitals, clinics, and pharmaceutical groups to be initial members of Task Force T3​, and hope that more business groups will throw their much needed support. Among those invited to participate are the Ayala Group’s AC Health, the Metro Pacific (MPIC) Hospital Group, Unilab, the Philippine National Red Cross, and Philippine Disaster Resilience Foundation.

Several business groups also want testing for their workers and are willing to invest in necessary safety measures. This facilitates the gradual resumption of operations while safeguarding against new outbreaks.

Private companies are doing their part and cooperating with the government. Some of the country’s top employers have committed to continue the payrolls and even advanced some benefits for their workforce, even when revenues have been greatly disrupted since the quarantine period.

In a previous statement, President Rodrigo Duterte appealed to the private sector for assistance and acknowledged its vital role in augmenting the resources and manpower of the government.

In response, the biggest business groups have been swift, aggressive, and efficient, as these are qualities integral to the developmental culture of successful enterprises. All the government has to do is to remove the barriers for unleashing the potential of all levels of the private sector. Divisive expletives may be entertaining to some but have a damaging effect to our national image as an investment preference.

When the virus has been defeated, the prospect of a quick rebound will depend on the confidence of big investors to choose the Philippines over other economies who will also want to recover from the global economic fallout of the Wuhan virus. The country must be ready to compete for the huge capital needed to reboot the economy.

 

Victor Andres “Dindo” C. Manhit is the President of Stratbase ADR Institute.

For hungry Filipinos during the pandemic, Bayan Bayanihan brings food and hope

By Rosemarie F. Marquez

WHEN a Philippine Army soldier brought food packs to Rowena P. dela Cruz’s doorstep one Saturday afternoon in April, tears streamed down her face.

“Finally, we have food for our children,” said the 29-year-old housewife. Her family of six lives in a 20-square-meter dwelling in Navotas City, northwest of the capital Manila. “We were so happy, as well as all our neighbors. The relief goods were a big blessing to us, especially since my husband is a passenger jeepney driver and he can’t work now, so we don’t know where to get money for food.”

The previous day, Mrs. Dela Cruz, her husband, Federico, and her 70-year-old father-in-law who lives with them and has a lung ailment, had skipped dinner, lunch, and breakfast. Her three children, including an infant, had consumed only milk and bread. Her husband had to give up his job temporarily when enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) started in Metro Manila on March 16. The ECQ is one of the government’s emergency measures to stop the spread of COVID-19 and save lives.

RESPONDING TO THE COVID-19 HEALTH CRISIS
The Dela Cruz family is just one of tens of thousands of poor Filipino households who have received food supplies under the Bayan Bayanihan, a food program launched by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in partnership with the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) and the private sector, in coordination with the Philippine Army.

Bayan Bayanihan, based on the traditional Filipino bayanihan principle of community spirit, was funded through a $5 million technical assistance under the Rapid Emergency Supplies Provision project approved by the ADB on March 26. The project addresses the health crisis caused by COVID-19 by delivering critical food supplies to as many as 140,000 vulnerable households in Metro Manila and neighboring provinces. Target beneficiaries are the poor and marginalized, including people with disabilities and the elderly, as well as daily wage earners in the informal labor market.

“We felt strongly that we had to play our part during these extraordinary times to immediately help the poor and vulnerable groups,” said ADB’s Director General for Southeast Asia Ramesh Subramaniam, who led Bayan Bayanihan. “At the same time, we worked with the government to rapidly prepare our broader support for the country’s fiscal stimulus programs and social protection initiatives.”

A COORDINATED RESPONSE
Mr. Subramaniam said the program was designed to complement national and local governments’ immediate efforts to provide for the basic needs of Filipinos, especially those living in relatively remote areas or far from retail facilities or food markets.

ADB’s approval of the project spurred a rush of online coordination meetings that went late into the night. Hundreds of phone calls were made between program partners including the private sector. Systems and procedures were immediately put in place for the emergency distribution of food supplies.

ADB staff led the food procurement and distribution schedules, and worked with the DSWD to identify the neediest communities. The Philippine Army deployed more than 400 soldiers and civilians to distribute and pack the goods into canvas bags, each containing 35 cans of sardines, tuna flakes, corned beef, and other items.

HELP FOR THE MOST IN NEED
Assembled in line with DSWD specifications, the food packs and accompanying 10-kilogram sacks of rice can sustain a family of five for a week. Soldiers, together with DSWD representatives, visited target communities days before distribution to validate poverty data and coordinate with village captains and social workers to ensure the smooth flow of goods from army trucks to doorsteps.

On March 31, five days after the project approval, Philippine Army trucks rolled out of Army headquarters in Taguig City with rice for 2,000 target households in four cities in Metro Manila — Pasay, Caloocan, Quezon, and Manila. On April 4, Army trucks started going deep into hard-to-reach barangays or villages, delivering 4,613 food packs to residents of Barangay Hulong Duhat in Malabon City. E-tricycles and bicycle taxis were hired to take the food packs to residents who lived down narrow alleyways, allowing them to abide by government guidelines to limit movement outside their homes.

100,000 POOR HOUSEHOLDS REACHED
By April 30, around 100,000 poor households, or half a million people, from all over Metro Manila had received food packs, including people with disabilities in Caloocan City. Contributions from large private sector and philanthropic partners, such as the Philippine Disaster Relief Foundation and Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry enabled the distribution to at least 40,000 more households. The program will end in May.

“We had other groups doing the same thing, but what made ADB’s program of Bayan Bayanihan really matter was the fact that we had a decision to give more,” said Ambassador Marciano Paynor, Jr., a seasoned diplomat and former Chief of Presidential Protocol who helped organize coordination systems for the program. “We are reaching out to the poorest of the poor. We are able to alleviate their hunger. And with this extended ECQ, then all the more you see the importance of having given them the amount that we gave and the places we have been to.”

Aleli Mantequilla, a 39-year-old who works at a biscuit factory and whose nine-year-old son is a person with disability, said the food packs allowed them to stay at home in Caloocan City.

“It is enough for at least two weeks, so we need not go out of the house during this time when it is so dangerous for our health, especially since my son cannot get sick. The food supplies also gave us some peace of mind. We can reallocate our money for paying house bills which are sure to come after the quarantine is lifted,” Ms. Mantequilla said

INSPIRATION AND STRENGTH IN PARTNERSHIP
Lieutenant General Gilbert Gapay, Philippine Army chief, said the program also employed as packers 250 students and caddies working at the Philippine Army golf course who had lost their jobs during the quarantine.

“They work on rotation in batches of 50 to 60, so that all of them will have income,” said General Gapay. “So apart from addressing the socio-economic impact of COVID-19 to poor communities, the program is also helping individuals who lost their jobs. We thank ADB for that.”

Despite risks to their health as frontline workers of the food program, Philippine Army and Navy personnel toiled almost daily to pack and bring food supplies to neighborhoods.

“We derive satisfaction and fulfillment out of helping these poor people, the needy,” General Gapay said. “We also draw inspiration and strength knowing that we have staunch partners willing to serve, like ADB.”

 

Rosemarie F. Marquez is a Senior External Relations Officer of the Philippines Country Office of the Asian Development Bank

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