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EO to grant DTI more powers to curb hoarding

THE Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) is proposing an executive order (EO) to increase its powers to monitor establishments to deter hoarding and overpricing as the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) outbreak spreads in the Philippines.

Trade Secretary Ramon M. Lopez told reporters in a mobile message Thursday that President Rodrigo R. Duterte expressed with the proposed order.

Mr. Lopez said the order would give the DTI, the Philippine National Police (PNP), and the National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) powers to visit establishments to prevent hoarding and profiteering.

“Online selling of masks and/or medical devices including alcohol, sanitizers, and the like will be strictly monitored and profiteering and hoarding will be dealt with,” he said.

He added that the selling of fake medical devices, including nebulizers, sanitizers, and alcohol, will be “strictly disallowed and dealt with.”

DTI said in a statement that the Consumer Act or RA No. 7394 considers overpricing of face masks an unfair and unconscionable sales practice because doing so would take advantage of consumers in a “time of need.” The Consumer Act places administrative sanctions of up to P300,000 and/or imprisonment of up to one year for violators.

The department said the Price Act or RA No. 7581 also considers these practices to constitute profiteering, an offense which entails a fine of up to P2 million and/or imprisonment of up to 15 years.

Mr. Lopez said the DTI is studying raising the penalties for violators.

The DTI said it also met with manufacturers of basic necessities to check on the availability of key goods.

“According to the manufacturers of basic goods, supply is sufficient while regular stocks in their warehouses are good for one month more or less, and they can produce more as the need arises.”

The National Food Authority (NFA) assured the DTI of sufficient rice stocks, while supermarkets said their inventories are good for two months. The supermarkets also committed to a cap of two bottles of rubbing alcohol per transaction.

The Mercury Drug chain said it maintains a month’s worth of medicines, while disinfectant manufacturers committed to maximize production.

The DTI is also working with the Food and Drug Administration to fast-track the issuance of Certificates of Product Registration for imported disinfectant.

“Consumers need not worry as we have enough stocks of basic goods in the market. The DTI is working closely with the manufacturers and retailers to ensure continued flow of supply in the market and reasonableness of prices of basic goods including disinfectants,” Mr. Lopez said. — Jenina P. Ibañez

Boracay tourist arrivals plunge 80%

BORACAY’S average daily tourist arrivals fell by more than 80% year-on-year to around 1,000 people in early March the wake of the coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak, Tourism Undersecretary Arturo P. Boncato, Jr. said.

“Last year, average arrival per day 5,600, but almost the same number leave so we (did) not really breach carrying capacity. This time, start of March, that is really down to almost 1,000,” he told reporters on Thursday.

The Department of Tourism (DoT) monitors Boracay tourism numbers via the single port open to visitors.

The DoT strategy, Mr. Boncato said, is to improve destinations experiencing slowdowns pending the return of visitors.

“What we’re doing today is… making sure that when everything has been resolved, when you come back to Boracay, we have systems in place from the destination itself, to the medical services. Everything will be so much better than it used to.”

The department is working with the Makati Medical Center Foundation and the PLDT Smart Foundation to supply the island with satellite phones, pocket WiFi, and medical devices such as stethoscopes, oxygen regulators, and automatic sanitizer dispensers.

President Rodrigo R. Duterte’s plans to visit the island and speak with tourism stakeholders on Thursday were put on hold as the outbreak widened.

The DoT, in a statement Thursday, said it will announce a new schedule for the president’s visit as soon as the information is available.

“The safety and well-being of tourists, tourism frontliners and citizens remain the utmost priority of the DoT.”

Mr. Boncato said that the department is working with national government to form contingency plans in case the outbreak reaches the island.

“It’s not going to be exclusive to Boracay — it’s going to be a national contingency plan,” he said.

“When it comes to tourism, our primary task is to make sure to protect the welfare of our tourists. If they’re already here, we have a regional office, we have a Boracay office. We are in touch with the tourism enterprises. And one good thing about Boracay is that all those doing business for tourism are accredited by the department… in effect they follow the standard, they’re under our regulation, and they always support what the national government is doing.”

Meanwhile, the task force working on the rehabilitation of Boracay is currently on track, he said, with two more major projects not yet completed.

Mr. Boncato said the Tourism Infrastructure and Enterprise Zone Authority, the infrastructure arm of the department, is investing in a drainage system.

“It’s done in parallel with the road network of DPWH (Department of Public Works and Highways).”

The inter-agency task force on the rehabilitation of Boracay will be working until April. — Jenina P. Ibañez

ADB offers to fund makers of key goods used in Covid-19 containment

COMPANIES in Asia and the Pacific region manufacturing and distributing products essential to containing the outbreak of coronavirus (Covid-19) have been offered the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) $200-million Supply Chain Finance Program for capital to support the expected increase in production amid demand for such products.

In a statement Thursday, the Manila-based bank said the funds will be available to firms that manufactures or distributes medicines, personal protective tools and other items needed against the pandemic and will be “provided to selected companies within weeks.”

“The support will target companies in the supply chain that are critical to fighting the virus. We’re looking to support companies that want to ramp up production and therefore need to engage suppliers,” ADB Head of Trade and Supply Chain Finance Steven Beck was quoted as saying.

The multilateral bank said the $200-million facility “could support more than $400 million” worth of projects in the next 12 months if private funding is added.

ADB also said it partnered with commercial banks on a “fifty-fifty risk sharing” basis to boost the funding further and possibly double the pool to $800 million over that period.

The bank did not provide further details.

“ADB is closely monitoring the impact of Covid-19 on trade finance and is in regular contact with client banks to assess whether additional support is required,” the bank added.

So far, the bank has issued $4 million worth of financing support to several countries fighting the pandemic, and a $18.6-million private-sector loan extended to Wuhan-based pharmaceutical distributor Jointown Pharmaceutical Group Co. Ltd. “to support the continued supply of essential medicines and personal protective equipment.”

The World Health Organization on Wednesday officially classified Covid-19 as a pandemic after its spread and intensity rose to “alarming levels.”

The ADB has shut down its headquarters in Manila for disinfection and advised its staff to work from home on Thursday after a “visitor to the Bank tested positive for the coronavirus.” — Beatrice M. Laforga

Government funding to fight Covid-19 deemed adequate

THE Treasury said the government has sufficient cash to support agencies seeking to contain the outbreak of coronavirus (Covid-19) cases.

In a report to its parent agency the Department of Finance (DoF), National Treasurer Rosalia V. de Leon said “cashflow is more than adequate” to support agencies responding to the pandemic.

Asked for details, Ms. De Leon said the government raised more than P300 billion in retail Treasury bonds (RTBs) early last month, while the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) has been making full awards during recent auctions of government securities.

“(Also), the domestic market is liquid (due to investors’) flight to safe havens especially government securities. We are the (only) game in town,” she said in a mobile phone message.

Budget Secretary Wendel E. Avisado said there is “nothing to worry” about in terms of funding.

“Our crisis management committee has met and set in place the required system to insure that DBM operates and attends to all funding requirements of the government at this time of national health emergency,” Mr. Avisado said in a mobile phone message.

Budget Undersecretary Laura B. Pascua said the Department of Health (DoH) also has P600 million in its quick response fund that it can use for responding to the pandemic, in addition to its regular budget. This can also be replenished from the P16 billion worth of funds from the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC).

On Tuesday, the Economic Development Cluster approved P2.92 billion in additional funding for the DoH, specifically for “additional testing, augmentation of contact tracing and surveillance and additional personnel protective equipment for health workers at the national and local levels.”

The government has estimated that it could lose P91 billion worth of revenue if disruptions caused by the pandemic linger until June. The government hopes to collect P3.49 trillion this year to fund its P4.1-trillion spending plan, with the remainder to be sourced from borrowing.

Mr. Dominguez has said the government needs to expand its borrowing program to plug any potential funding gaps, with the deficit estimated to rise to as much as 3.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) this year, well above projections. A deficit of 3% of GDP is deemed in many economies to be the ceiling for prudent spending, with the government previously expecting to spend the equivalent of 3.2% to ramp up its infrastructure program.

Ms. De Leon said the BTr has set up remote access for critical operations including its weekly auctions, payments and investments as its main office will shut down Friday to be sanitized.

“Everything is in place for remote access for critical operations like auction, payments and investments. Have assigned rotating skeletal force in case of prolonged lockdown. Have coordinated with PSALM (Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management Corporation) for a temporary war room and another one in our Pampanga regional office is being readied. Cashflow is more than adequate,” Ms. De Leon said in a text message to the DoF, a copy of which was sent to reporters.

Meanwhile, various government offices have suspended work and closed down offices Thursday to disinfect their premises to help contain the outbreak from spreading further.

This includes offices of the Department of Budget and Management, Department of Finance and the National Economic and Development Authority, among others. — Beatrice M. Laforga

Transport dept’s Tugade joins other Cabinet officials in self-quarantine

KEY OFFICIALS of the transportation department, including its Secretary, have quarantined themselves alongside other Cabinet officials following potential exposure at an event where one of the attendees is believed to have since contracted the coronavirus (Covid-19).

The Department of Transportation’s (DoTr) Assistant Secretary Goddes Hope O. Libiran said in a statement that “our officials led by Transportation Secretary Arthur Tugade have taken the initiative to place themselves under self-quarantine.” Those observing the quarantine include Ms. Libiran.

She said the self-quarantine is “in observance of protocols set by the Department of Health in the event of a possible exposure to Covid-19… In addition, the DoTr has also started the temporary closure of some of its offices and agencies for cleaning and disinfection.”

According to reports citing Mr. Tugade and Ms. Libiran, and confirmed by a DoTr source to BusinessWorld, the potential exposure happened at a March 5 inspection of the NLEx Harbor Link toll road, which was attended by President Rodrigo R. Duterte, Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III and Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Benjamin E. Diokno, and Executive Secretary Salvador C. Medialdea; and officials of NLEx Corp., Metro Pacific Tollways Corp., and Metro Pacific Investments Corp. including its chairman, Manuel V. Pangilinan.

The Philippine National Railway also issued an advisory, saying: “In adherence to the protocols set by the DoH (Department of Health), the Philippine National Railways (PNR) will conduct cleaning and disinfecting of the PNR Executive Building from today March 12, 2020 until Sunday March 14, 2020. All office works are also suspended during the said period.”

Senator Christopher Lawrence T. Go, a former aide to the President, announced late Wednesday that he and Mr. Duterte had opted to be tested for Covid-19.

Mr. Dominguez told reporters in a Viber group chat Wednesday evening: “I was told that a fellow I met with Thursday and Friday last week tested positive for Covid-19. I have no symptoms but am self-isolating until I get tested. You may wish to follow suit.” — Arjay L. Balinbin

ATI issues positive outlook for Manila, Batangas ports

LISTED PORT operator Asian Terminals, Inc. (ATI) said cargo flow at the Manila South Harbor and Batangas Port is expected to improve by mid-March even as the region grapples with the outbreak of coronavirus (Covid-19).

In a statement sent to reporters Thursday, the company said: “Manila South Harbor has experienced signs of improvement compared to the latter part of February with vessel calls, especially those from Chinese ports, starting to pick up. Inbound and outbound container flows have likewise (picked up the) pace, with more container inventories recorded at the terminal.”

It said it has also observed a ”positive improvement trend” at the Batangas Port.

It said ports in China have been returning to normal.

ATI said it hopes the trend continues at Manila South Harbor and Batangas Port.

“Contingency measures (are) in place to ensure unimpeded cargo flow and the safety of its stakeholders,” it said.

The Philippine Ports Authority (PPA) recently said the yard utilization rate at the Port of Manila dropped from 65% average to 50% in February due to the outbreak.

It said cargo ships directly or indirectly from Hong Kong and China represent “about 70%” of all inbound cargo vessels.

PPA General Manager Jay Daniel R. Santiago said the Port of Manila was just recovering from the Chinese New Year which dampened shipping activity when the coronavirus began to affect cargoes from southern China, including Macau.

ATI reported that it handled more than 310,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) at the Batangas Container Terminal (BCT) in 2019, up 25%.

It said its expansion program for the BCT in 2019 had resulted in “higher capacity and greater efficiency” for port users in the region. — Arjay L. Balinbin

DA to pre-position key food items within NCR

AGRICULTURE Secretary William D. Dar said the Department of Agriculture (DA) will strategically position stockpiles of key food items around Metro Manila in the event of supply disruptions arising from the outbreak of coronavirus (Covid-19).

Mr. Dar said apart from the rice in government warehouses, the food supplies to be prepositioned include rice, vegetables, fruits, eggs, fish, and pork.

“We are anticipating something that might cause the disruption of food supply. Strategically positioning means ensuring that supply is available and enough. Sapat ba ang bigas dito sa Metro Manila say, for the next one month (The Metro Manila rice supply is good for about a month)” he said.

The department considers the pre-positioning order a pre-emptive measure in the event that the outbreak worsens.

“Let’s have a plan on how to sustain the food supply for Metro Manila initially, and the whole country, eventually,” Mr. Dar said.

Mr. Dar has said stocks of many foods are ample because of the harvests in March and April.

Moreover, the Philippine Statistics Authority reported recently that the national rice inventory rose 10.9% year-on-year in February amid increased holdings by the National Food Authority. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

Auto industry seen hardest hit by coronavirus outbreak

IHS Markit expects the automobile and auto-parts industry to be the most severely hit sector globally this year by disruptions caused by the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), with the industry estimated to suffer a 4.4% drop in value added terms.

“The motor vehicles & parts industry will contract in most regions in 2020 — with the biggest declines seen in Japan, China, South Korea and the United States,” IHS Markit said in a note Thursday.

Other industries to be severely hit are the computer and electronics sector which is expected to take a 1.9% hit to value-added, while the impact on restaurants will be a fall of 1.3%.

IHS Markit estimated that global economy will likely expand by 1.7% this year, less than its previous estimate of 2.5% made in February.

According to its Global Output Index February 2020 data table, IHS Markit said only five out of 20 sectors studied posted growth in activity last month, led by the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology sector, other financials, real estate, software and services as well as telecommunication services.

Meanwhile, the sectors that contracted the most last month were automobiles and auto parts, metals and mining, chemicals, industrial goods, household and personal use products, transportation, as well as tourism and recreation.

“By 2021, all industry segments will see a return to growth. Regionally, Japan, the Euro area and Latin America show weakest growth across a range of industries,” it said.

Asked to comment, Rajiv Biswas, Asia Pacific chief economist of IHS Markit, said the tourism industry will be the most affected sector in the Philippines as it accounts for an estimated “12.7% of total GDP and 8% of total exports, as well as 13% of total employment.”

He said the “severe disruption” in the country’s tourism sector will likely drag on until the second quarter, at the very least, and could indicate possible temporary job losses, which official estimates by the government project at 30,000-60,000.

“Consequently the Philippine tourism industry will experience a significant economic slump during coming months, resulting in financial stress for many segments of the tourism sector, including hotels, restaurants, tour operators, retail stores and airlines,” Mr. Biswas said in an e-mail Thursday.

Domestic tourism could help mitigate the economic shock from the drop in international travel, he added.

However, Mr. Biswas said the domestic manufacturing sector has shown “considerable resilience” amid the pandemic, “with the composite indicator continuing to indicate expansion” in the sector, according to IHS Markit’s latest manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) survey.

The Philippine PMI index improved to 52.3 in February, the highest level in Southeast Asia last month, and outperforming other economies whose supply chains were disrupted more severely by the pandemic.

“With the Covid-19 epidemic increasingly hitting many other economies in Asia and in Europe, some moderation in new manufacturing orders from abroad is likely in coming months, until the epidemic is brought under control,” he added.

Mr. Biswas also warned that a slump in global financial markets could lead to “negative economic shocks” for the country as global investors shift to safer assets such as US Treasury bonds and “away from growth assets such as Asian emerging markets equities.”

“The negative investor sentiment is resulting in portfolio capital outflows from Asian emerging markets, at least in the short term, until the Covid-19 pandemic can be brought under control,” he said. — Beatrice M. Laforga

Peso sinks on virus fears

THE PESO finished trading at P50.85 against the dollar on Thursday, plunging 30 centavos. — BW FILE PHOTO

THE PESO sank against the greenback on Thursday due to negative investor sentiment as the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to spread around the world, with the outbreak already declared a pandemic.

The local unit finished trading at P50.85 against the dollar on Thursday, plunging 30 centavos from its P50.55 close on Wednesday, according to data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines.

The peso opened the session at P50.65 against the dollar. The peso sank to the P51-per-dollar level intraday, dropping to as low as P51.05, while its intraday best was at P50.63 against the greenback.

Dollars traded went up to $1.375 billion from $934 million on Wednesday.

UnionBank of the Philippines, Inc. Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion said the peso’s weakness was driven by general risk-off sentiment in the market amid COVID-19’s spread in the country.

“Peso declined mirroring general sentiment in the market. Uncertainties continued to linger with the COVID-19 spread,” Mr. Asuncion said in a text message.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort also said there was negative sentiment in the market due to the virus.

“The peso exchange rate closed weaker amid increased global risk aversion, after renewed sell-off in stock markets around the world, triggered by the WHO’s (World Health Organization) statement that the coronavirus is now a pandemic,” he said in a text message.

In the Philippines, COVID-19 patients totaled 49 as of press time, with two reported deaths.

For today, Mr. Asuncion gave a forecast range of P50.80 to P51, while Mr. Ricafort said the peso will move around the P50.70 to P51 levels. — L.W.T. Noble with Reuters

PSEi sinks to 5,700 level as coronavirus spreads

By Denise A. Valdez, Reporter

THE MAIN INDEX succumbed to the 5,700 level yesterday, seeing a massive sell-off due to lingering worries over the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) lost 616.99 points or 9.71% to 5,736.27 on Thursday, while the broader all shares index shaved off 315.96 points or 8.29% to 3,492.77.

This is the biggest single-day drop of the PSEi since Oct. 27, 2008 when it lost 12.27%, and its lowest close since Dec. 18, 2012 when it hit 5,636.59.

Trading yesterday also triggered the circuit breaker — or when the market halts trading after reaching a threshold — which in the case of the local bourse, was at least a 10% drop in the main index. The break was from 2:53 p.m. to 3:08 p.m., giving time to investors to digest the market’s movement.

The PSE said yesterday’s event was just the second time the circuit breaker was triggered since it was implemented in September 2008. The first one was on Oct. 27, 2008.

“The PSEi suffered one of its worst daily performances today in the last 20 years,” AAA Southeast Equities, Inc. Research Head Christopher John Mangun said in an e-mail on Thursday.

“Investors reacted to the possibility of a lockdown in Metro Manila to contain the COVID-19 disease before we have a massive outbreak. The sudden selling coupled with a lack of buying sent prices into a freefall, something we have not seen since the last financial crisis,” he added.

The meltdown was not limited to the Philippines, as global equities similarly declined yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Topix indices lost 4.41% and 4.13%, respectively. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropped 3.66%, China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 index gave up 1.92% and South Korea’s Kospi index fell 3.87%.

US markets also recorded sell-offs on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices slumped 5.86%, 4.89% and 4.70%, respectively.

“The general sentiment has gone from fear to hysteria which may continue until we see more evidence that the virus can be contained,” Mr. Mangun said.

All sectoral indices at the PSE closed lower yesterday: mining and oil by 725.77 points or 12.76% to 4,961.75; property by 371.53 points or 10.82% to 3,061.86; financials by 153.50 points or 10.11% to 1,364.01; holding firms by 624.21 points or 10.02% to 5,600.90; services by 87.91 points or 7.11% to 1,148.31; and industrials by 481.38 points or 6.33% to 7,117.18.

Some 981.13 million issues valued at P7.96 billion switched hands yesterday, up from Wednesday’s 687.59 million issues worth P6.62 billion.

There were 226 names that declined at the market’s closing, beating the seven names that advanced. Some 25 names ended unchanged.

Foreign investors returned to selling with net foreign outflows of P773.90 million from Wednesday’s net foreign buying of P350.50 million.

What is to be done

By Benjamin R. Punongbayan

(Third of Three Parts)

TO ACCELERATE the development of far-flung areas with good economic potential, we have to connect them by air to the major trade centers. This will require building or modernizing appropriate-capacity airports at government expense. To attract private air carriers to provide flights to these far-flung areas, a system of fare-subsidy to the carriers can be developed based on seat capacity utilization such that, when the capacity utilization reaches an agreed-upon rate, the subsidy ceases. Airports must be provided with night landing facilities so that the airlines can fly their otherwise idle aircraft to these rural destinations at night.

Shifting the geographical development area. Most of the economically developed areas in the country happen to be concentrated in disaster-prone places, especially those frequently visited by typhoons. These are on the Pacific side, more specifically from Samar/Leyte and going northwest up to Isabela/Cagayan. I guess this condition developed because of the initial establishment of the center of activities in Manila, which has a deep port and, at that time, was easily defensible from naval attacks. When economic activity subsequently grew, the development automatically moved north, south, and east of Manila by extending the already established infrastructure in the capital city to these nearby areas. With the regular and frequent occurrence of typhoons, however, much output and, therefore, productivity are lost during the disaster and when destroyed utilities and productive facilities are replaced and repaired. Rather than continue to establish new growth centers in this typhoon belt, we have to locate these to underdeveloped geographical areas that are not disaster-prone. These are in Southwest Luzon (excluding the bulls-eye areas around Mt. Pinatubo), Western Visayas, Palawan, and the entire Mindanao region. I realize that there will be added cost, because these areas are currently underdeveloped; but it will be worth the extra cost because there will be much less disruptions in economic activity and much more economic growth in these less-developed areas and, thus, encourage those residents looking for better lives elsewhere to stay put, preventing further congestion in the Greater Manila Area.

Spreading communication access. To help drive economic growth in nonurban areas, the national or local government should provide free Wi-Fi facilities at the center of every town and underdeveloped city in the country. Such facilities will also help school learning. Preferably, this project should be designed as a joint undertaking between the national and local governments and have the cost split between them. I do not expect this project to cause an undue burden in the finances of both the national and local governments. In fact, some cities have already installed such a free facility.

Promoting non-tertiary education. The 2010 census released in 2013 showed a total population of 82 million, of which 57 million were 17 years and older (69.5% of total population). Of this age group, the highest educational attainment of 24 million Filipinos or 41% of this age group was high school undergraduate, which means they did not finish high school. While this age group included those who were 60 years old and above, which I was not able to extricate from my references, it is not an important information for purposes of this commentary. While it is too simplistic to extrapolate from this information from the 2010 census the possible number of Filipinos today who are not high school graduates, I did so just to get a broad indication. So applying simple relationships, the derived number is 30.7 million (69.5% x 41% x 108 million present population) for the present. Even when we depress this derived number of 30.7 million by one third, there are an approximate 20 million Filipinos today who are not high school graduates. This represents a large number of Filipinos living today who are not or are less productive and are possibly suffering from poverty.

To make these fellow citizens more productive, the national and local governments should employ all necessary means to enable all elementary and secondary school students to finish high school. The necessary measures may include providing subsidized meals and transportation to poor elementary school students. The barangay captain should be given the responsibility of monitoring nonattendance of school-age youth. They should determine the cause of the problem in each case and provide the solution with the help of the town or city government.

Upon graduation from high school, those not ineligible to attend college and those eligible but who cannot afford to do so, should be encouraged to acquire technical skills by completing the requirements for their preferred vocational work. This assistance should be given free, including subsidized meals and transportation to the training centers. For this purpose, the scope of assistance given presently by the Technical Education and Skills Development Authority (TESDA) may need to be expanded.

Funding the expenditure requirements. Of course, all of these new initiatives require raising a lot of money to get them going. Much of the difficulties in raising money especially arise in the early years. To the extent that we are able to grow the economy at a sustainable higher rate, the annual growth will feed the funding requirements of succeeding projects through increased taxes, increased investments, and enhanced ability and capacity to borrow.

At the early parts of this whole program for accelerated development, there are a number of things we can do. One is to make the funds provided by current revenues work more efficiently. The congressional pork barrel funds must be redirected. Instead of parceling the total of this barrel of money into expenditures for congressional districts, the total amount should be kept intact and used to finance big-ticket national items. In the 2020 budget, it was disclosed by a senator that the pork is either P16 billion or P83 billion inserted at the last minute of the bicameral conference. This was strongly denied. The denial is not believable, of course; it is just described as something else. However this fund allocation is described, it must be redirected to fund national development projects that will certainly produce much greater benefits to the Filipino people. Such redirected use may not reelect some congressmen, but it will certainly benefit millions of Filipinos. Just imagine multiplying these two amounts by 10 years. The product of P160 billion or P830 billion is a huge sum. The annual allocations inside the barrel can partly or easily fund, depending upon the actual amount of pork, the housing for the poor proposed in this commentary.

Another fund that can be used more efficiently is the Internal Revenue Allocation (IRA) to the local government units (LGUs) which, at present, is 40% of Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) collections.

As a result of the Supreme Court decision in 2018, the IRA will eventually be augmented by 40% of Bureau of Customs collections. To improve the use of these LGU funds, especially for spending on infrastructure developments in the geographical areas of the LGUs, local executives must be made clearly accountable for them. This can be done by making a mandatory disclosure of the IRA allocation of each province, city, town, and barangay through a publicly disclosed website and by requiring the LGUs to disclose their locally raised revenue and all actual annual expenditures through their respective websites together with a proper comparison or reconciliation of such expenditures with the total of their respective IRA and local tax collections.

It is about time that a comprehensive rule should be established and accepted by all concerned on who is responsible for funding a particular development project in a particular LGU. For example, a road network in a town would include those that only traverse the town, those that connect various towns in a province, and those that connect a province to another province or several provinces. Who is required to build and maintain which of these? The same is true for a sewerage system, flood control network, irrigation system, and the like. It seems to me that the responsibility for initiating these development activities is not very clear, such that there seems to be some kind of waiting game taking place and that the national government is still being asked for funding, but which may not come. I could be wrong, but I thought it may be helpful to bring this matter up. It may help make efficient use of the annual IRA which, by any measure, is a huge sum and should have shown observable cumulative improvements in the countryside over the years since 1991, when the Local Government Code, decentralizing the LGUs, became law — a long period of 28 years. The use of these IRAs should clearly show by this time. Does it?

Another source of funding is additional borrowings. Of course, this should be undertaken with prudence to avoid any consequent negative effects on the national economy. The indicators that are watched for this purpose are the deficit to GDP ratio and external debt to GDP ratio. For 2018, these ratios are 3.2% and 23.9%, respectively; for H1 2019, 0.5% and 23.8% respectively. Additional borrowings, including Official Development Assistance, should be stretched as prudently as possible. Moreover, as the economy grows steadily, the growth will naturally expand the country’s ability and capacity to borrow.

The third way is to stimulate much more private investment initiatives in infrastructure development. We have seen these private investments in recent years in the construction of expressways, airports, and railways. Similar investments should be pushed for the development of other infrastructure, such as seaports, bridges, undersea tunnels, and ferries to connect our many islands; tourism infrastructure; and irrigation and water supply and sewerage systems. It should be noted, though, that to attract private investments in such undertakings, investors require a fair return on their investments. Such condition necessarily translates to a higher usage price than if the facilities were built with tax money, but which funding is not possible under the circumstances.

Along this line of private investments, much of national government activities may be privatized, which can lead to cost savings, leaving more tax money for other national development activities. I can see some activities of the BIR that can be privatized. There may be many more activities that can be privatized. We should consider adopting a policy on privatizing national government activities where this is possible. Doing so may lead to better services to our citizens and cost savings. The New Zealand government has adopted such a policy. We can learn from them.

That said, the big question, of course, is whether this leapfrogging can be done under the present circumstances of the national and local governments.

I laid down the scope and contents of this leapfrogging to try to create interest in what we as a people can accomplish to recapture the failed promise of the lost decades. To the extent that I was able to do so, we can take the next step of booting out the jokers and bringing in the do-gooders. Whatever it takes. Within existing rules.

 

Benjamin R. Punongbayan is the founder of Punongbayan & Araullo, one of the Philippines’ leading auditing firms.

ben.buklod@yahoo.com

Exogenous shocks, local anchors and economic growth

The coronavirus continues to cause fear in civil society and financial markets. In my last column, assurance was given that the Philippine growth story is not mythical. There is substance to the signs, even as they might be wonders to some.

Five years ago, Joseph Stiglitz published The Great Divide. He argued that the “crisis of the real economy lies behind the Long Slump, just as it lay behind the Great Depression.” What happened in the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 was not exactly financial implosion, but was more of a consequence of economic weakness.

We have been addressing various weaknesses of the Philippine economy for the last 21 years. These efforts yielded higher total factor productivity, improvements in economic efficiency, and favorable labor market dynamics.

Seven years prior to 1999, we started institutionalizing game-changing policy and structural reforms.

The list is quite long.

President Fidel V. Ramos (FVR) pioneered social and political engineering by dismantling monopolies in telecommunications, privatizing water services provision, and liberalizing both the power and oil industries. Congress passed the first law liberalizing the entry of foreign banks in the Philippines.

President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (GMA) initiated fiscal reform by way of the Expanded Value Added Tax, the Securitization Act, privatization of both generation and transmission of power, and the establishment of the wholesale electricity spot market.

President Joseph E. Estrada (JEE) widened the coverage of the agrarian reform program, established the Farmer’ Trust Fund to consolidate small farm operation into medium and large-scale integrated enterprises, and worked to liberalize retail trade, domestic banking and commerce.

President Benigno S. Aquino III (BSAIII) worked for the liberalization of foreign investments as well as the passage of the second law on foreign banks’ greater participation in the local banking industry, and the country’s Competition Act.

President Rodrigo R. Duterte (PRRD) can be credited for the passage of several fiscal reform packages, the Ease of Doing Business Act, the National ID System, amendments to the BSP Charter, the Rice Liberalization Act, Universal Health Care Law, Revised Corporation Law, laws on tax exemption of small-scale gold miners on sale of gold to the BSP and Islamic banking.

The proposition is that in the last quarter of a century, through five presidencies from different political persuasions, a critical mass of institutional changes have been achieved. They all translate into a stronger economy.

We can see the evidence in terms of the good progress in output and inflation, balance of payments and public finance. If it were not for those exogenous shocks of international origin, we would have a higher trajectory of output growth and a lower inflation path.

I show here one of my favorite charts that I used to present during investment roadshows and presentations to both the IMF and credit rating agencies for the last 15 of my 41 years at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas.

We derive the following simplified commentaries:

One, output growth has been solid since 1999 and sustained positive economic growth has been recorded through 2019. This is a period of 21 years, spanning the presidencies of JEE through PRRD. But one can observe that building blocks started to pile up during the Cory Aquino and FVR administrations after EDSA I.

Two, while Ferdinand Marcos’ output record appears on a higher path, this was achieved by enormous unsustainable public borrowing. When the country’s creditors called in their loans, the Philippines had to declare a debt moratorium. Growth started to slow down in the early 1980s and plummeted in 1984 and 1985 with runaway inflation.

Three, for the last 21 years, the lowest points of the economic path were associated with external shocks. Cory’s challenge was the first Gulf War and its ramification on inflation. JEE’s crucible was the Asian Financial Crisis. GMA’s term was quite tumultuous, challenged by issues of the IT bubble, the oil and rice crises, and the Global Financial Crisis. BSAIII’s term was challenged by the European debt crisis. We have yet to see the full impact of COVID-19 and the VFA’s abrogation on growth under PRRD.

The big picture is that despite numerous exogenous shocks for the last 21 years, we have seen the resilience of the Philippine economy. One can argue that there has been a decoupling of the economy from politics. This is what those policy and structural reforms have contributed. We have seen the initial resurgence of manufacturing and services.

With privatization and liberalization of various economic sectors, competitive forces have been unleashed resulting in greater economic efficiency and productivity. This is the essence of a strong economy.

The strong domestic anchors are our safeguards against the headwinds in this increasingly globalized economy. On the right track with the Build, Build, Build program, PRRD is challenged to now allocate more funds to public health. Building on the foundation lain for the last two decades, the administration must now implement a strategic and coherent public policy approach against the deadly virus.

 

Diwa C. Guinigundo is the former Deputy Governor for the Monetary and Economics Sector, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). He served the BSP for 41 years. In 2001-2003, he was Alternate Executive Director at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC. He is the senior pastor of the Fullness of Christ International Ministries in Mandaluyong.