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Open-pit mining environment impact seen outweighing economic benefits

By Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

THE return of open-pit mining promises a boost to the economy, possibly at the expense of degrading the environment and living conditions for residents near the mines, a University of the Philippines (UP) academic said.

“From the view of sustainable development, the decision might not be right considering the impact of large-scale mining on local communities. While there might be economic benefits that can be gained from implementing this liberal policy on mining and granting new permits, these benefits, however, have to be weighed against the long-term impact of mining activities on the environment and the lives of the people,” according to political scientist Ruth R. Lusterio-Rico, associate dean of UP Diliman’s College of Social Sciences and Philosophy, who studies environmental politics.

“Some sectors have openly questioned and criticized this shift in policy particularly in light of the recent natural disaster experiences that are already considered to be related to climate change. Thus, for advocates of environmental protection, the economic benefits that could be gained now would not outweigh the consequences on the environment for the future generations,” she added.

On Dec. 23, the government lifted the four-year ban on open-pit mining, which superseded an earlier order issued by the late Environment Secretary Regina L. Lopez.

In April, President Rodrigo R. Duterte lifted the nine-year moratorium on granting mining permits.

“There were indications that the administration has softened on its stance on mining. As everyone knows, in the early period of the Duterte administration, the position of the administration, particularly the President, was strongly against mining. Evidence of this (included) his strong statements against mining and mining companies in his State of the Nation Addresses (SONAs) in 2016 and 2017,” Ms. Lusterio-Rico said.

“Mr. Duterte even directed the (Department of Environment and Natural resources) to review all mining permits and ensure compliance of mining companies to all government standards and regulations. It would be recalled that this strong position against mining was implemented by Ms. Regina L. Lopez,” she added.  “After Ms. Lopez’s exit from the DENR, the position on mining gradually shifted. In his later SONAs, Mr. Duterte no longer talked about mining. The focus shifted to cleaning up Boracay and Manila Bay.”

Ms. Lusterio-Rico said the government and miners must ensure that the lives of those in mining communities are not disrupted.

“I think the government must very carefully study the situation in the communities that would potentially be affected by mining activities, on a case-to-case basis. To be fair, there were also mining companies that practiced what may be considered ‘responsible mining.’ But definitely, knowing how communities would be affected by mining activities is very important. Aside from the long-term impact on the environment, let us not forget the consequences of mining activities on people and their communities,” she said.

“There have been several studies made on the consequences of mining on people’s lives as well as on the environment. There are communities that have been divided because of the issue of mining, primarily because there are people who gain and there are those who lose,” she added.

However, she called the consequences of open-pit mining inevitable in the event of mining accidents.

“In other words, even if the mining company can be a potential provider of employment, not everyone in the community can be hired by the mining company. There are also heavy consequences on communities, such as loss of livelihood, poor health conditions, etc. when accidents happen in mining areas,” Ms. Lusterio-Rico said.

“I suppose that the risks involved in revitalizing the mining industry cannot be overemphasized. It is very clear based on past experience and the current challenges posed by climate change that the Philippines has to be vigilant and ready to face the possible consequences of irresponsible action,” she added.

Pambansang Lakas ng Kilusang Mamamalakaya ng Pilipinas (PAMALAKAYA), an organization of small fishermen, called the job creation benefits minor compared to the potential costs.

Open-pit “only creates very small number of jobs and a paltry amount of value to the Philippine economy” at the expense of degrading the environment, PAMALAKAYA National Charmain Fernando L.  Hicap said in a statement.

“The resumption of open-pit mining spells greater environmental destruction and disaster for farmers, indigenous peoples, and fisherfolk. We do not buy the pretext that inviting more mining companies into our land will help revive the pandemic-battered economy… There are more sustainable ways to restore the economy (than) exposing our natural resources and sacrificing our national patrimony to big mining interests,” Mr. Hicap added.

The mining industry welcomed the lifting of the ban, taking the position that the practice can be made environmentally sustainable.

“The mining method is dependent on the location and configuration of the ore body. Open-pit mining is employed for shallow or near-surface mineral deposits, where underground operations are impractical. There are sufficient safeguards to ensure that all mining operations including open-pit are done safely and with due consideration to the environment and host communities,” the Philippine Mining and Exploration Association (PMEA) said in a statement.

“We hope that this will encourage investment in mining in the future and that the government will facilitate and expedite the permitting process. This will allow the mining industry to contribute more to the country’s economic recovery from the disastrous effects of the pandemic,” PMEA added.

DoE endorsed 279 power projects seeking ERC clearance in 2021

EIA.EMB.GOV.PH

THE Department of Energy (DoE) said it endorsed 279 power generation facilities applying to be certified by the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) in 2021.

In the list released by the DoE on Friday, 213 of the facilities were diesel-powered, with the biggest being the Ingrid Pililla Diesel Power Plant Project of Ingrid Power Holdings, Inc. with capacity of 179.824 megawatts (MW).

Meanwhile, 27 facilities are hydro-powered, led by Pulangi IV Hydroelectric Power Plant in Bukidnon at 255.15 MW.

Solar-powered facilities accounted for 16 endorsed plants led by Belgrove Power Corp.’s Malaya Thermal Power Plant Unit 2 in Rizal at 394.2 MW.

Ten coal-fired power plants were on the list, clearing up the backlog of pending coal-fired projects. No further approvals of new projects are expected after a ban on such approvals by the DoE. GNPower Dinginin Ltd. Co.’s GNPower Dinginin supercritical coal-fired power plant was the largest of these at 1,449.93 MW.

Of the 279 facilities, 34 new facilities received endorsements.

CoCs (certificates of compliance) are issued by the ERC to clear the way for five more years of commercial operations. Certification indicates compliance with government standards. — Marielle C. Lucenio

Legislators tout open access bill as recovery driver

BW FILE PHOTO

LEGISLATORS said they expect a bill which they co-authored to improve competition in the digital services industry, helping propel the economy’s recovery, ultimately reducing poverty.

House Bill No. 8910, also known as the Open Access in Data Transmission Act, hopes to promote fair and open competition by lowering barriers to entry for the telecommunications industry, in the process lowering the cost of such services. 

“By reducing the costs of internet access, (the bill) greatly reduces the transaction costs of search, transportation, tracking, and verification in conducting economic activity,” Quezon City Rep. Jesus C. Suntay told BusinessWorld in an e-mail.

“For developing countries like ours, it is important to possess a more inclusive digital economy to prevent the widening gap between the rich and the poor by increasing the efficiency of the economy,” he added.

He cited a study from the Inter-American Development Bank which found that investing in technology can democratize access to technology, improving user access to jobs and education.

Parañaque Rep. Joy S. Tambunting said that building better digital infrastructure will help support the development of e-commerce.

“E-commerce contributed 3.4% to GDP (gross domestic product) in 2020,” Ms. Tambunting said. “(It) also has the capacity to alleviate poverty as it allows small and micro businesses to enter the market.”

She noted that more digital awareness would “(better) equip Filipinos to do business.”

Marikina Rep. Stella Luz A. Quimbo cited a 2020 study conducted by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific which found that the advantages of better digital infrastructure include “access to wider international markets, improvement and efficiency in operations through digitally-enabled services, reduction of trading costs… and wider access to the financial sector.”

Surigao del Sur Rep. Johnny T. Pimentel said that in India and parts of sub-Saharan Africa which are largely agricultural, are using digital technology to help lift up their farmers.

Mr. Pimentel said that “those countries’ ministers are encouraging the use of digital infrastructure to promote agribusiness and agricultural development by setting up mobile-based apps for market selling and buying and transport mediation.”

The legislators acknowledged that the spread of COVID-19 has helped speed up the digitalization process and cashless transactions due to the restrictions on movement imposed by the pandemic.

They also noted that the sector lacks established rules, while those that exist are outdated.

Various surveys like a poll conducted by Tech in Asia indicate reveal that the Philippines has some of the slowest and most expensive internet services. — Jaspearl Emerald G. Tan 

Accelerating growth in the post-pandemic world

As the pandemic continues to impact businesses across global economies, it has also fueled a reset in strategy for many organizations who now place focus on thriving instead of merely surviving. More than half of the respondents surveyed in the latest EY Global Capital Confidence Barometer, which gathered insights from more than 2,400 C-Suite executives globally, even expect a recovery in profitability that matches pre-pandemic levels by 2022. Most of these executives share satisfaction with their performance in response to the pandemic in comparison to their competitors, with more than half of the Southeast Asian respondents (which include Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) believing that their organizations outperformed their competitors in engaging with local communities, operational stability, and digital performance.

However, this progress does not change the reality that disruption will continue at an accelerated pace not seen before the pandemic. Startups are rewriting the rules of the game, challenging business models in all industries as products and services enter markets much faster.

This makes it imperative for companies to continuously review how they can future-proof their strategy and business fundamentals. They must also critically review their portfolio to determine if it will remain relevant and profitable in the long term. A constant strategic and portfolio review process will allow companies to identify areas of growth at the earliest opportunity, as well as more quickly address areas of underperformance. To take advantage of opportunities to drive transformation for success beyond the crisis, executives will need to make bold moves and act with urgency.

DIVESTING UNDERPERFORMING ASSETS
The act of divesting distressed and underperforming assets is a conventional trend during a crisis — and it should also be expected to continue beyond the pandemic. It should be noted, however, that if it does not fit with an organization’s strategy, then even a strong-performing business might be tying down capital that can be better deployed in investments that deliver higher impact.

While business unit management bias is understandable, it can obscure the holistic view of the business that the review process should yield. Top-down assessments by the management and board can sometimes conflict with a bottom-up review process, especially when it comes to assessing synergies and the value of business units as stand-alone entities or potential divestitures. Companies will need to consider their divestiture by identifying assets at the risk of disruption as well as those that are facing future growth challenges.

MAKING TRANSFORMATIVE, STRATEGIC ACQUISITIONS
The survey revealed that over half of the Southeast Asian respondents at 56% seek to actively pursue mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the next 12 months. This beats the average of 44% in the previous 11 years, and has been the highest number since 2012. Some of the drivers that increased this appetite for M&A include issues relating to regulations, the strengthening of technology, tariffs and trade flows, talent and new capabilities, and growth into adjacent business sectors or activities.

Most of the deals that survey respondents intend to pursue this year target the acquisition of specific capabilities as well as bolt-on deals, where smaller companies are acquired and added to an existing business. Many Southeast Asian corporate M&A deals tend to have bolt-on characteristics due to them being easier to execute. However, it remains to be seen if these smaller acquisitions will be sufficient for companies seeking growth in an environment that may look very different in the wake of the pandemic. Some companies also attempted roll ups, which consolidates multiple small companies so that the resulting larger entity can take advantage of economies of scale, but it should be noted that these transactions hold a much greater risk and a higher degree of difficulty to execute.

The success of the M&A approach depends on several factors. This includes ensuring that the acquisition is part of the business strategy, adequately considering and mitigating transaction risks, having a deep and well-structured analysis of the market and target, and securing correct financing of the acquisition. The extent of a detailed value-creation thesis with proper ownership and implementation actions will also make a difference between success and failure.

SUSTAINABILITY AS A CORE CONSIDERATION
Management and the board will also need to be strong stewards of the community as companies acquire and grow, making environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations an important component of the corporate acquisition playbook.

Companies will need to update their ESG and acquisition frameworks to reflect various topics, with examples that include sustainable practices, environmental compliance, and operating with integrity from the perspective of all stakeholders.

TRANSFORMING AND TRANSACTING TO EMERGE STRONGER
It has been established that companies capable of transforming and transacting in previous crises have emerged stronger than their competitors. This means that embracing transformation accelerated by the right acquisitions will be key now and beyond the pandemic.

In this time of rapid disruption, boards must ask themselves whether their business strategy helps maintain market leadership and growth, and if their current portfolio strategy is sound or needs to be reshaped through divestments and investments. By taking advantage of the right M&A opportunities, organization will be able to drive long-term success beyond the COVID-19 crisis.

This article is for general information only and is not a substitute for professional advice where the facts and circumstances warrant. The views and opinions expressed above are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of SGV & Co.

 

Smith C. Lim is a strategy and transactions partner of SGV & Co.

Philippines records highest daily coronavirus infections at 28,707

BIKERS lined up for COVID-19 booster shots at a drive-thru facility in Lawton, Manila on Saturday. — PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS

By Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza, Reporter

CORONAVIRUS infections in the Philippines continued to climb as health authorities reported record infections of 28,707 on Sunday.

The tally topped the previous record of 26,458 infections on Saturday, bringing the total to 2.97 million. The death toll hit 52,150 after 15 more patients died, while recoveries increased by 2,579 to 2.79 million, the Department of Health (DoH) said in a bulletin.

The agency said 44% of 77,479 samples on Jan. 7 tested positive for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), way above the 5% benchmark set by the World Health Organization.

There were 128,114 active cases, 4,213 of which did not show symptoms, 119,276 were mild, 2,851 were moderate, 1,465 were severe and 309 were critical.

The agency said 99% of the cases occurred from Dec. 27 to Jan. 9. The top regions with new cases in the past two weeks were Metro Manila with 16,803 infections, Calabarzon with 5,821 and Central Luzon with 2,841.

It said 73% of the deaths occurred this month, 7% each in December and October and 13% in September. A fifth of the deaths came from Calabarzon, another 20% each from Western Visayas and Central Luzon, 13% each from Cagayan Valley and Metro Manila, and 7% each from Central Visayas and Ilocos.

The agency said 135 duplicates had been removed from the tally, 116 of which were recoveries. Three recoveries were relisted as deaths. Fourteen laboratories failed to submit data on Jan. 7.

DoH said 35% of intensive care units in the Philippines were occupied, while the rate for Metro Manila was 52%.

The Philippines might record as many as 35,000 infections this week, Fredegusto P. David, a fellow from the OCTA Research Group, said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

Health experts have warned that coronavirus infections in the country could exceed numbers from previous surges. They said the surge driven by the heavily mutated Omicron variant could exhaust the country’s health system.

RUMORS
The Philippine General Hospital (PGH), the state’s main COVID-19 referral hospital, has recorded a steady increase in patients.

About 30 intensive care unit beds for coronavirus patients at the hospital were fully occupied, PGH spokesman Jonas D. Del Rosario said by telephone.

“We are preparing for a steady increase in patients in the next coming weeks,” he said, noting that the state hospital had admitted 291 coronavirus patients.

Mr. Del Rosario said a number of COVID-19 patients admitted to PGH had other serious ailments. “We have a lot of patients who come in for different reasons and it turns out some of them are COVID-19-positive,” the doctor said.

“Since they have comorbidities, we have to admit them.”

He said the most common symptoms among coronavirus patients at the state-run hospital were sore throat, headaches, body aches, diarrhea and other gastrointestinal problems.

Most coronavirus patients at PGH did not need to be intubated, he said. “Very few came to us in respiratory distress. This time, respiratory distress is not so common.”

Also on Sunday, the presidential palace said an inter-agency task force had recommended an increase in bed capacities in the National Capital Region and nearby areas.

The task force also said the government must ensure that patients needing care are promptly referred to hospitals, palace spokesman Karlo Alexei B. Nograles said in a statement.

The government should also reassess the capacity of temporary treatment and monitoring facilities and remove any referral quotas from hospitals.

Hospitals in the capital region have been asked to report how they were allocating COVID-19 bed capacities, Mr. Nograles said.

The task force also said the government should boost the capacity of telehealth and telemedicine outside Metro Manila. The state should also increase vaccination rates outside Metro Manila as soon as possible.

“We encourage all who become symptomatic to immediately isolate themselves because this will help control transmission,” Mr. Nograles said. “Home isolation is recommended for those with mild or asymptomatic COVID-19.”

The Palace official said local government units “should be able to provide services such as telemedicine and immediate referral so that those requiring additional management may be assessed and treated appropriately.”

In a separate statement, Mr. Nograles said President Rodrigo R. Duterte would not impose a total lockdown amid the infection surge.

He issued the statement after an audio clip warning the public to ready basic supplies because the government might place the country under a total lockdown went viral.

“We reiterate our appeal to the public to dismiss these unfounded and malicious rumors and to refrain from sharing these with our family and friends,” Mr. Nograles said.

“Our country is dealing with a real threat that understandably concerns our people, and spreading these unverified rumors contributes to unnecessary anxiety and needless panic.”

Checkpoints set up to enforce firearm ban before May 9 election

PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS

PHILIPPINE police set up almost 2,000 checkpoints nationwide as an election gun ban took effect on Sunday.

The checkpoints manned by 14,000 policemen, soldiers and election officials seek to enforce the gun ban in a country that is notorious for election-related violence.

The Commission on Elections (Comelec) prohibits firearms and other deadly weapons from Jan. 9 to June 8, national police chief General Dionardo B. Carlos said.

Under the Comelec order, police will suspend all permits to carry guns issued to licensed gun holders, legal entities and law enforcers. Only police and soldiers on duty may carry guns. No one may carry firearms in public places unless they have a permit from the election body.

Under the law, police and other law enforcers as well as election officials may apply for exemption from the ban. Security personnel of foreign diplomatic corps, missions and agencies under international law, security agencies and high-risk people may also apply.

Body guards and those involved in the transport or delivery of firearms, ammunition and explosives and sports shooters may also seek exemption.

The checkpoints were randomly placed, Comelec Regional Director Maria Juana Valeza said at the launch of the nationwide gun ban in Cainta, Rizal. Violators face jail time or may be barred from voting, she said.

Citizens can refuse a check of the compartment of their vehicles by law enforcers in the absence of probable cause.

Mr. Carlos said he had yet to receive any reports of “major incidents” during the first six hours of the gun ban.

Police at checkpoints would also enforce coronavirus health protocols, said Brigadier General Eliseo Cruz, director of the Calabarzon police. He asked the public for understanding in case the checkpoints cause heavy traffic.

Election Commissioner Ma. Rowena V. Guanzon on Sunday tweeted that she was the first to be given an exemption certificate. She thanked Election Commissioner Antonio T. Kho, Jr. on Twitter for approving her exemption.

“The gun ban starts on Jan. 9,” Ms. Guanzon tweeted. “The first certificate of authority to carry or transport a firearm is mine.”

Violators of the gun ban face a jail term of as long as six years, permanent disqualification from holding public office, being stripped of their right to vote and deportation for foreigners after they have served their prison term.

Gov’t urged to implement nationwide academic remedial program

PHILSTAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS

A SENATOR on Sunday urged the government to implement a nationwide remedial program for students, after the Education department announced the suspension of in-person classes in areas under Alert Level 3. 

Senator Sherwin T. Gatchalian, chair of the Senate Committee on Basic Education, Arts and Culture, said Senate Bill No. 2355 or the proposed Academic Recovery and Accessible Learning (ARAL) Program Act would implement “systematized” tutorial sessions for learners who are struggling to achieve the minimum level of mastery required in Language, Mathematics, and Science. 

The proposed program aims to “cover the most essential learning competencies on Language and Mathematics for Grades 1 to 10 and Science for Grades 3 to 10,” Mr. Gatchalian said in a statement. 

He said the program seeks to improve learners’ critical and analytical thinking skills, adding that it will also target learners who did not enroll for school year 2020-2021.

Mr. Gatchalian, citing the National Economic and Development Authority, said the “yearlong lack of face-to-face classes will cost the Philippine economy P11 trillion in productivity losses over the next 40 years.” 

Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez has said the government must find a way to regain the school days lost due to the pandemic, noting that the lack of face-to-face classes might affect the youth’s learning capacity. 

The pilot implementation of limited in-person classes started in Nov. 2021, with 28 Metro Manila schools joining the pilot run last December.

The Department of Education has already deferred the expansion of limited face-to-face classes following the imposition of Alert Level 3 in Metro Manila and various provinces due to a surge in coronavirus cases. — Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza 

Zamboanga City to require negative RT-PCR test result again starting Jan. 12

ZAMBOANGA City’s health office conducts free rapid antigen testing at the international airport and other entry points for travelers on a voluntary basis. — ZAMBOANGA CHO JMANGILA

ZAMBOANGA City will again require a negative RT-PCR test result starting January 12 from inbound travelers coming from areas under a coronavirus alert level higher than that of the city, which is currently at level 2.

The city government, in a statement over the weekend, said the local task force handling the pandemic response decided to reimpose the requirement to help avert the spread of the Omicron variant.

The rule applies regardless of a person’s vaccination status. It will be in effect at ports and land borders.  

For those coming from areas under the same or lower alert level, no test result is required but “may be subjected to random antigen testing upon entry through the airport, seaport or land border,” the local government said.  

Zamboanga City, a main gateway and commercial hub in southwestern Mindanao, has been conducting free rapid antigen testing at entry points for travelers on a voluntary basis.

The city had 178 active coronavirus cases as of Jan. 8 out of the total 24,175, based on Department of Health data. There were 671 deaths and 23,326 recoveries. — MSJ

Ban on welcome/send-off groups at Davao airport remains in effect as city notes rise in COVID cases

BOC

THE DAVAO City government has issued a reminder that welcome or send-off groups remain prohibited at all transport hubs, including the international airport, seaports, and bus terminals. 

“We need to remind, especially out-of-town people, that there is a ban on welcome and send-off at the Davao International Airport,” City Tourism Operations Office (CTOO) Head Generose D. Tecson said.

She noted that there were reported welcoming or send-off parties last week, “until we tightened security again.”

The ban was put in place starting Feb. 11, 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic as well as for security reasons. The Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines, which manages the airport, has also issued guidelines related to the ban. 

The reminder comes as local health officials warned of another potential coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) surge given an increase in the number of daily positive cases last week. 

“There’s an increase in our COVID-19 cases. It began when we started having double digits… we had 67 (on Jan. 6). Yes, we are increasing but the positivity rate remains below five percent. We do not have a surge yet but we are anticipating it,” said Michelle B. Schlosser, a doctor who serves as spokesperson of the local coronavirus task force. 

She reported that the 67 new confirmed COVID-19 cases were among the 1,410 swabbed on Jan. 6, representing a 4.75% positivity rate. The city had zero new cases on Jan. 1, and the first double-digit record started on Jan 3 with 16 cases.

On Jan. 8, the city had 121 new cases, bringing the total to 54,124 with a 95.9% recovery rate, based on Department of Health data.

“The city is preparing for a surge and mitigating its risk po. We are requesting the public to submit themselves to COVID-19 management and have themselves vaccinated and avail of the booster shots,” Ms. Schlosser said in a statement from the city government.

Manila ramps pediatric vaccination, booster shots

PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS

THE CITY government of Manila ramped up its vaccination program against coronavirus with sites open over the weekend for 12-17 year olds and booster shots, with services also offered to non-residents.

The weekend venues were mainly in shopping malls within the Philippine’s capital city, including SM Manila and San Lazaro, Lucky Chinatown, and Robinsons Place.

As of Friday, 229,787 shots had been administered to minors while 169,204 individuals have received their booster shots. 

The city government is also preparing for pediatric vaccination covering those aged 5 to 11. Online pre-registration through the Manila COVID-19 website is ongoing.

The national government said vaccine doses for 5-7 year olds are expected to be delivered soon. — Jaspearl Emerald G. Tan

For two years, I pined for travel. Getting home was a relief

PUPKLYAK-FREEPIK

PERSONAL DETAILS scrawled on Post-it notes, an unmasked security guard, and an hours-long wait in a US rental car. My family was two days from departure for Singapore and the window for getting a negative COVID-19 verdict was closing fast. The line at a drive-in testing operation at the University of Colorado snaked for several blocks and the sun had barely risen. It didn’t inspire confidence. The American healthcare system was wrestling with the rampant Omicron variant that showed where the US, for all its financial and industrial prowess, falls down. I just wanted to get back to the city-state safely. Its hyper-managed approach to the pandemic might have something going for it after all.

Singapore’s very gradual re-opening is being tested by Omicron, too, though officials have so far resisted returning to a version of lockdown. I have been skeptical the past two years as to whether Singapore had the policy mix right. Open too much and COVID may race through the densely populated island. Keep the economy under wraps too long, and the tiny republic could be left behind, jeopardizing its carefully tended reputation as a hub for capital and talent. After this trip, I have become more sympathetic to the things Singapore does appear to have gotten mostly right.

In the course of a three-week stay in Colorado to visit in-laws, my perspective went from awe at the relative absence of restrictions, to concern, and then to near paranoia. By the end of December, I donned a KN-95 mask to walk outside, even with the wide streets of suburban Denver deserted. Being allowed to return to Singapore required staying well — and having the papers to prove it. With cases surging, upending plans to return to offices, roiling airlines, and threatening to overwhelm public services, this looked like a riskier bet than a few weeks earlier.

The Vaccinated Travel Lanes that allow for quarantine-free travel to Singapore from selective locations remain in place, though the government has suspended sales of new tickets in response to Omicron. I half-expected quarantine to be reinstated by the time of my return. The health minister has warned a fresh virus wave will hit the island and that the country needs to be ready. Singapore reported 813 new COVID cases on Thursday, up from 805 a day earlier. There were 365 new Omicron cases.

Throughout Asia, the US is often portrayed as a kind of pandemic frontier land, where anything goes and authorities can’t get it right. As I looked deeper, I found important nuances. Granted, there is no nationwide mask mandate — in Colorado there’s not even a state requirement. There are, however, city and county rules that resemble parts of Singapore’s strictures: Many stores and cafes display signs making it clear that masking is a condition of entry.

A big failure is lack of enforcement. Nobody reminds people of their obligations. The idea that safe distancing ambassadors patrol shopping areas as they do in Singapore is a non-starter. At Dick’s Sporting Goods store in Lakewood, the doors are plastered with instructions to mask up. Many people do, yet some refuse, and staff don’t police the rules. We cut short a visit to the Downtown Aquarium in Denver upon seeing scores of people, many uncovered, jammed between the gift shop and the restaurant. Our life is in Singapore, for now, and we just couldn’t risk infection, especially given our two small children are not yet vaccinated.

Arriving at Denver airport Dec. 30, armed with negative test results and reams of paperwork, proved the start of another ordeal. Despite flying with a Singapore Airlines partner, United Airlines, to San Francisco before connecting with SIA, counter staff appeared flummoxed by the phalanx of boxes to be checked: Vaccinated Travel Pass, which enables your access to the VTL, receipts for pre-paid PCR tests on arrival, and so on. Then there was the inevitable delay and the prospect of cancellations owing to Omicron and weather. At what point do we just walk away and regroup? Getting a later flight wouldn’t necessarily do it. Our COVID protocols would need to be redone because of their two-day validity.

In the end, we made it. A seven-day regimen awaited. A PCR test at Changi Airport was followed by a combination of tests at home and a few supervised by staff at a clinic. Once you’re confirmed negative, and upload the results to a Ministry of Health website, you go about your day. Friends and colleagues elsewhere in Asia are surprised there isn’t mandatory quarantine in a hotel or state facility, as there is in Hong Kong. A few months earlier, before VTLs, there would have been. For the luxury of sleeping in my own bed, I am thankful.

Such gratitude shows how much COVID skews perceptions of what is normal.

The week of tests delivered the desired outcome. Big relief. It’s not that Singapore has excelled in handling the pandemic. For a country ruled by one party since independence in 1965 that has carefully cultivated a reputation for administrative excellence, there’s been an unnerving amount of backtracking and misfires. Things can change quickly and a new wave of restrictions might not be far off. As a center for trade and commerce, officials need to be careful not to scare away too much top-tier imported talent. Many were holding out for the year-end home visits.   

I do, however, feel safer. Better to do my job in the right time zone. The kids can go to school. The office is open, Singapore having recently stepped away from work-from-home as default. I hope to travel for business in coming months. For now, being back safely might be enough.

BLOOMBERG OPINION

Uncertainty and polarization

PIKISUPERSTAR-FREEPIK

Before the spread of the Omicron variant, the world expressed optimism that the pandemic would wane. The rollout of safe and effective vaccines — fast in advanced countries but slow in developing ones — offered a way out of the pandemic. The pandemic would fade and turn into an endemic disease in places lagging in vaccination.

The outlook thus was a strong recovery in the major economies with knock-on effects on emerging markets. But then came Omicron. And it is rampaging throughout the world.

Omicron has a large number of mutations, and it is highly transmissible. It is capable, too, of immune escape. It has re-infected people previously infected by COVID-19. It has struck fully vaccinated people, including those who have received a booster.

We need to combat the idea that Omicron is “a blessing in disguise” for being mild and that it is a “natural vaccine.” Omicron is a virus, not a “natural vaccine.” People are getting hospitalized and dying because of it.

Those who treat Omicron as a blessing do not understand how deadly a highly infectious, albeit less severe variant, can be. To quote the title of an essay by Kevin Kavanagh (Infection Control Today, Jan. 5, 2022): “Those who underestimate Omicron aren’t doing the math.” The high infection rate has translated into an extremely high absolute number of hospitalizations and deaths even though the big proportion of cases are mild. This in turn has overrun the health systems.

In a trice, Omicron has dampened the world’s, and our country’s, incipient optimism. The brighter mood has dimmed, and expectations have lowered.

The full impact of Omicron is about to be felt in the Philippines. The onset of 2022 is characterized by COVID-19 cases growing exponentially. More, we are barely convalescing from the devastation caused by super-typhoon Odette.

Omicron has created new problems. Uncertainty has heightened. But Omicron is not the sole factor behind the uncertainty. Political polarization may be spooking business and investments.

Election time always brings uncertainty. Businessmen would rather wait for the election outcome before making any investment decisions. It is somewhat different this time — more perilous. The business community is most sensitive to the political polarization, which will intensify in the event of a victory for Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. At present, Marcos, Jr. leads the poll surveys by a wide margin.

The eminent Financial Times titled its Nov. 26, 2021 story: “Marcos Jr’s presidential bid stirs painful memories in Philippines.”

Pantheon Macroeconomics, an independent UK-based provider of economic intelligence, fears that a Marcos victory poses a risk to Philippine economic recovery. Its report, released in December 2021, said: “Elections in the Philippines are rarely fought on economic policy. But they still carry significant event risk, particularly if Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr., the current frontrunner and the son of an ex-dictator, wins.”

Japan’s Nomura Global Research shares the same view as above. In its monthly report titled “No holiday cheer” (December 2021), the Nomura global financial services group wrote: “Marcos Jr., in our view will likely be regarded as less market-friendly than [Leni] Robredo, particularly when it comes to experience at the national level and in articulating a strategy for the country to recover from the pandemic.” In the same vein, while Nomura gave Robredo a perfect score of five for business friendliness, Marcos received a score of one.

Nomura further said: “A Marcos victory will likely be viewed negatively owing to perceptions against him, in part because his candidacy is facing some petitions for disqualification on grounds of making false statements and a previous conviction of failing to file income tax returns.”

The legal case of disqualifying Marcos as a candidate for President is the proverbial Damocles sword hanging over his head.

The polarization was seeded early in the term of President Rodrigo Duterte. As payback for the political support of the Marcos family, Duterte allowed the remains of the late dictator be buried at the Libingan ng mga Bayani with full military honors.

Worse, Duterte has pursued a similar violent approach to that which Marcos undertook during the dictatorship. Duterte has waged a merciless war against both drug users and rebels, marred by extra-judicial killings. He has stymied the opposition by jailing critics and closing a media franchise.

Meanwhile, Marcos, Jr. never conceded his loss to Robredo in the 2016 election for Vice-President. He challenged the narrow election outcome, but the Supreme Court eventually ruled against him.

The abandonment of civilized engagement, the sowing of distrust, the utter disrespect to opposition personalities, and the virulence of the rhetoric as exhibited by the likes of Larry Gadon all spell increased polarization. And for years, there has been a virtual army spreading fake news to tarnish Robredo and to distort history.

The fact is, Leni Robredo’s approach of cooperating with the administration and other parties and her campaign of “radical love” serve to attenuate the polarization.

Even as Omicron is causing uncertainty and wreaking havoc, it will come to pass in a few weeks or months. But there is a bigger uncertainty, a more dangerous problem. How we resolve the uncertainty and polarization that will have a longer-term impact, for better or for worse.

We need to overcome the pandemic. We need to end the polarization. The opportunity to do so and to enable recovery and healing is, obviously, to elect the most competent, the most unimpaired candidate.

Still, there is a bright side. Despite the fact that the economy has been badly battered by the pandemic, the expectation is that once the pandemic subsides — we just don’t know at this time where its terminal point is — the economy will adjust towards recovery.

 

Filomeno S. Sta. Ana III coordinates the Action for Economic Reforms.

www.aer.ph