By Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio, Reporter

CHINA MAY be preparing for island-building at Scarborough Shoal in the disputed South China Sea, in a move that could bolster its sweeping claims over the waterway and heighten regional tensions, analysts said over the weekend.

The Philippines should prepare its diplomatic and military toolkit to push back against possible land reclamation at the shoal, which could reshape the strategic balance in the contested waters, they added.

“A militarized outpost at Scarborough Shoal would present a severe security setback for the Philippines,” defense economist Rocio Salle Gatdula said in a Facebook Messenger chat, adding that it would place key military bases within striking range of Chinese missiles.

She added that it would allow China to “further surveil and potentially prohibit Philippine and US forces from operating in the Luzon Strait,” a key waterway between Manila and Taiwan, which China claims as its breakaway province.

Scarborough, named Panatag by Manila and called Huangyan Dao by China, has been at the center of renewed tensions between the countries that lay competing claims over features in the South China Sea, where trillions of dollars worth of trade passes through annually.

The shoal is a vast fishing lagoon that lies within the Philippines’ 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone and was seized by China in 2012 following a standoff with Philippine forces.

Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto C. Teodoro, Jr. last week said Manila is not ruling out possible Chinese island-building activity at Scarborough Shoal after Beijing’s nature reserve plan.

In September, China approved the creation of a 3,500-hectare reserve at the northeast rim of the shoal, which it said is intended to preserve the ecological diversity of one of the most contested areas in the strategic waterway.

“By declaring only the northeast side of Scarborough Shoal a ‘nature reserve,’ China has left itself the option of building on the other parts of the feature,” Raymond M. Powell, director of SeaLight, a maritime transparency group focused on the South China Sea, said in a Messenger chat.

Ms. Gatdula said Beijing’s reserve plan could be used as a cover for land reclamation, adding that there are “multiple indicators” suggesting that China is seeking to build an artificial island at Scarborough, like floating barriers and buoys within the feature.

The Chinese Embassy in Manila did not immediately reply to a Viber message seeking comment.

“This is reminiscent of what China had done at Mischief Reef and Fiery Cross Reef,” she said.

China has built man-made islands on numerous submerged features in the strategic waterway despite protests from neighboring countries, outfitting them with runways, hangars, radar systems and ports that could bolster its naval presence in the resource-rich waters.

Allowing China to build and militarize an artificial island at Scarborough Shoal could heighten regional instability and increase the risk of conflict between Beijing, Manila and its treaty ally Washington, Ms. Gatdula said.

“The result is an expansion of China’s de facto control over international waters and airspace,” she said. “This militarization fosters an environment of instability and raises the risk of inadvertent escalation between China, its neighboring countries and US allies.”

Artificial islands have become a key asset for China to project greater power in the South China Sea, said Mr. Powell. “[They have] proven to be effective power projection platforms from which to stage its paramilitary forces… deep into its neighbors’ waters.”

Chinese forces have built about 3,200 acres of new land in the heavily contested Spratly Islands since 2013, according to the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative.

“Additionally, the deployment of bombers and warships near the shoal further shows strategic preconditioning for a permanent military facility intended to close the gap in China’s South China Sea defense triangle of the Paracels and Spratly Islands,” Ms. Gatdula said.

Two Chinese long-range bombers flew east of Scarborough in March, Reuters reported.

Beijing’s declaration of a reserve at the disputed shoal calls for a “full court press” from Philippine authorities, said Sherwin E. Ona, a security analyst and associate professor at De La Salle University. He sought a combined response of legal challenges and intensified joint maritime patrols in the contested waters.

“We need to be ready for escalation,” he said in a Viber message. “The Philippines needs to be ready for any eventuality.”

The Philippine government should strike a balance of “diplomatic-military-political responses” while accelerating its military modernization program, which includes the acquisition of warships and advanced fighter aircraft, he added.

The South China Sea has become a regional flashpoint as Beijing asserts sovereignty over almost the entire waterway, defying a 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague that voided its sweeping claims.

MOST FILIPINOS oppose military coups as a means of settling political disagreements, according to a poll released on Sunday, showing strong support for democratic processes amid rising political tensions.

About 70% said they are against the Philippine military intervening in political disputes, according to an OCTA Research survey conducted from Sept. 25 to 30. Only 5% of respondents said they supported a military coup, while 22% remained undecided.

OCTA interviewed 1,200 adults for the poll, which had an error margin of ±3% points.

“The findings make it clear that any attempt by the military to settle or influence political disputes would not gain the backing of majority of Filipinos and would likely be met with broad public opposition,” OCTA said in a statement on Sunday.

President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. is facing mounting pressure as his administration continues to be rocked by an unfolding controversy involving substandard, incomplete or nonexistent infrastructure in a country regularly battered by flooding.

There were reports of a coup plot against him that circulated on social media last month as thousands of Filipinos took to the streets in the biggest protests in years over the multibillion-peso flood control scandal.

Philippine military chief General Romeo S. Brawner, Jr. said in October he had rejected calls from retired generals — mostly critical of Mr. Marcos — who sought to rally the armed forces to remove him, amid simmering discontent over a public works controversy.

Opposition to military intervention in politics was highest in Mindanao at 79%, followed by the National Capital Region at 78%, the Visayas at 71% and Balance Luzon at 63%, according to OCTA.

Skepticism over the military’s role in government ran strongest among upper and middle-income groups, with 73% of Classes A, B and C and 71% of Class D opposing armed forces involvement. Disagreement dipped to 64% among Class E.

“These survey results reaffirm the strength of democratic norms in the Philippines and highlight the enduring commitment of Filipinos to uphold civilian and constitutional rule,” OCTA said, adding that “widespread resistance reflects both the enduring influence of democratic values and the collective memory of past authoritarian rule.”

The Philippines has a long history of coup plots, with more than a dozen military mutinies since democracy was restored in 1986, following the overthrow of the late President Ferdinand E. Marcos, Sr. in a popular street uprising.

Each succeeding president has seen the threat of a coup by disgruntled troops, with the government of ex-President Rodrigo R. Duterte having to deal with alleged plots to unseat him during his 2016-2022 presidency.

The last serious attempt to unseat a civilian government was in 2006, during the presidency of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, but it was foiled by state security forces and led to the arrest of several military and police officials. A week-long national state of emergency was declared to quell the uprising. — Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio