PHILIPPINE President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. has approved the third phase of the military’s modernization, which includes the purchase of the country’s first submarine to defend its maritime sovereignty in the South China Sea.

The third phase of modernization reflected a shift in strategy away from internal to external defense, Philippine Navy spokesman for the West Philippine Sea Roy Trinidad said on Thursday. “We may not be a large navy… but we would have a navy that will take care of our territorial rights and sovereignty.”

The third phase of the modernization plan, which was revised to make it more attuned to the country’s needs, is estimated to cost 2 trillion pesos ($35.62 billion) and will be implemented over several years, Mr. Trinidad said.

The announcement comes at a time of growing tensions with China over sea disputes in the South China Sea. Manila refers to that part of the South China Sea within its exclusive economic zone as the West Philippine Sea.

Mr. Trinidad could not immediately say how many submarines the Philippines intends to buy, but he said “definitely more than one.”

France, Spain, Korea and Italy have shown interest in supplying the Philippines with submarines, he added.

Southeast Asian neighbors like Indonesia and Vietnam already have submarine programs.
While the first and second phases of the military’s modernization plan were “land-centric,” the third phase will seek, among others, to boost military capabilities in the South China Sea, Mr. Trinidad said.

Defense Secretary Gilberto C. Teodoro, Jr. last month said acquisitions under the third phase would focus on an array of capabilities ranging from domain awareness, intelligence and deterrence capabilities in maritime and aerial space.

Beijing and Manila have traded sharp accusations in recent months over a succession of run-ins in the South China Sea, where each has overlapping sovereignty claims, including charges that China in December rammed a ship carrying the Philippine Armed Forces chief of staff.

China claims most of the South China Sea, parts of which are also claimed by the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan, Vietnam and Indonesia. An international tribunal in 2016 voided China’s claim, which Beijing has rejected.

Also on Thursday, political analysts said China is benefitting from the worsening rift between Mr. Marcos his predecessor Rodrigo R. Duterte, who has proposed to separate Mindanao island from the Philippines.

“Duterte’s rambles are mostly far from plausible,” Joshua Bernard B. Espeña, who teaches international relations at the Polytechnic University of the Philippines, said in a Facebook Messenger chat on Thursday. “But his persona and rhetoric represent danger against a united Filipino resolve needed against China’s classical divide-and-conquer playbook to secure the first island chain.”

“China needs this domestic political rift more than ever since the Philippines now integrates the Taiwan Strait and West Philippine Sea frontiers as a singular theater of operations for strategic calculus,” he added.

‘NOISES OF TREASON’
Mr. Duterte said there’s now a “regrouping of the political arena” that would lead to the campaign for an independent Mindanao, which he said can stand on its own considering its natural resources.

“It is not a rebellion, not a bloody one,” he said. “We will follow the process provided by the United Nations to gather signatures, verify these under oath and with the presence of other (witnesses), signify that the people want to separate.”

While not plausible, a separate Mindanao could create serious security compromises for Manila, Mr. Espeña said, adding that it would force the Philippine military to revert to internal security operations and weaken external defense efforts.

“Such is politically consequential and logistically unsustainable. The Philippines cannot fight two enemies from two frontiers,” he said. “Moreover, radical extremism inspired by the Islamic State is just around the corner to exploit any political vulnerabilities.”

A Mindanao that is separate from the Philippines would become “a buffer zone for China in its ambitious conquest of the West Philippine Sea,” said Chester B. Cabalza, founder of Manila-based International Development and Security Cooperation, referring to parts of South China Sea within the country’s exclusive economic zone.

“Magnifying the bigger picture of the current geopolitical puzzle in the country, a divided country works for China amid the impending family feud of the Dutertes and Marcoses,” he said via Messenger chat.

President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr., 66, has veered away from his predecessor’s pivot to China, boosting the country’s presence in the South China Sea and pursuing security ties with countries critical of Beijing, including the US.

Mr. Marcos in February last year gave the US access to four more military sites on top of the five existing ones under their 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA).

Mr. Espeña said the US is likely concerned about Mr. Duterte’s push for an independent Mindanao since Washington and Manila face common security challenges.

“Since Washington maintains a military presence on a rotational basis in the Philippine archipelago via EDCA, any sign of instability in the Philippines will also concern them,” he said.

He called on the Marcos government to “correct noises of treason” by empowering members of the National Security Council to enforce the law.

“The incumbent government must also continually support the upcoming Bangsamoro Parliamentary elections in 2025,” he said. “This support weakens any calls for division by framing secessionism as an unfruitful move for all parties concerned.” — Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza with Reuters