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Investors unload URC shares after lower-than-expected Q3 earnings

By Mark T. Amoguis
Senior Researcher

GOKONGWEI-LED Universal Robina Corp. (URC) was among the most traded stocks last week as investors started to unload some of their shares after the company’s third-quarter earnings fell below expectations.

A total of P1.195 billion worth of 7.786 million URC shares exchanged hands from Oct. 21 to 25, making it the fifth most traded issue in the local bourse, the Philippine Stock Exchange data showed.

The stock declined by four percent on a week-on-week basis to P150 apiece last Friday. Since the start of the year, however, it has risen by 17.6%.

“The third quarter 2019 earnings release is the biggest catalyst that drove the stock’s price movement. It has been on a narrow consolidation for the past several days before breaking down the day of its earnings release,” Paola Beatrice C. Lopez, equity analyst at Regina Capital Development Corp., said in an e-mail interview last Friday.

“We have been expecting that URC will be able to sustain the positive growth it had shown for the past two quarters, so its (third-quarter) results came as a surprise. This resulted in the stock’s breakdown,” she said.

In a separate interview, AP Securities, Inc. Senior Research Analyst Rachelle C. Cruz said URC’s third-quarter earnings were below estimates, setting the market expectations for the consumer sector.

“People are banking on the recovery of its coffee segment… apparently this third quarter, [URC’s] competitors are aggressively doing marketing efforts… The competition has led to slowdown the coffee volume of URC…,” Ms. Cruz said in a phone interview on Friday.

URC, which makes Great Taste and Blend 45 coffee, has described itself as a “competitive 3rd player in the coffee business.”

In a disclosure last Thursday, URC reported a 6.2% year-on-year decline on its attributable net income to P1.968 billion despite registering a 6.2% growth in its revenue to P32.744 billion during the three-month period.

This brought URC’s nine-month attributable net income to P6.997 billion, an increase of 2.9% from last year. Its top line, meanwhile, went up by 5.8% to P99.785 billion during the January to September period.

Accounting for the bulk — almost 80% — of its revenues during the nine months to September is URC’s branded consumer goods group, which includes Jack’N Jill snacks, C2 tea and Nissin noodles, Revenues under this segment increased by 3.8% to P79.017 billion from P76.113 billion previously.

Its agro-industrial segment jumped by 18% to P9.963 billion, while the commodity foods group inched up by 1.6% to P10.805 billion.

The company targets a 7-9% increase in its sales this year, banking on the recovery of its coffee segment as well as the growth of its food and agro-industrial businesses.

For this week, URC will be trending sideways with some downward bias, AP Securities’ Ms. Cruz said, placing the stock’s support and resistance levels at P143.2 and P160, respectively.

For Regina Capital’s Ms. Lopez: “Given the bearishness of its indicators, it is likely that URC will bottom out first before investors pick up again.”

Ms. Lopez pegged URC’s support and resistance levels at P144-149.5 and P156.3, respectively.

Suedzucker raises earnings outlook on improved ethanol demand

HAMBURG — Suedzucker, Europe’s largest sugar refiner, on Friday raised its forecast of operating profits in its current financial year as environmental concerns have boosted demand for biofuel ethanol enough to partially offset weakness in the sugar sector that is slumping due to a global glut of the sweetener.

“We are seeing robust demand for bioethanol in several European countries,” a Suedzucker spokesman said. “In the current debate about protecting the climate, the message is getting through that bioethanol is a good method of reducing CO2 and dust emissions in cities.”

“We are hopeful this trend will continue. The sugar outlook is improved slightly but unfortunately the overall sugar market remains depressed.”

The company now expects group 2019/20 operating profits to reach 50 million euros to 130 million euros ($55.50-$144.3 million) against its previous forecast of zero to 100 million euros and 27 million euros operating profit in the previous year.

The main improvement will come from its CropEnergies bioethanol unit, now expected to achieve operating profit of 70-90 million euros, up from its previous forecast of 50-75 million euros.

Suedzucker now estimates its core sugar sector will post an operating loss of 200–260 million euros against its previous forecast of a loss of 200-300 million euros.

“We have taken measures on cost reduction (in the sugar sector) while we are seeing a moderate improvement in sugar spot market prices in Europe which is being reflected in new contracts we are signing,” the spokesman added.

Europe’s sugar producers are still suffering from the double blow of low sugar prices and European Union market liberalization that has exposed them to depressed world markets.

Suedzucker also warned it would see “a significantly negative impact” from business development of British commodity trading company ED&F Man Holdings in which Suedzucker has a shareholding of about 35%.

Suedzucker on Oct. 10 also posted a fall in earnings as sugar prices remained depressed. Germany’s second largest sugar refiner Nordzucker on Friday also posted a pre-tax loss of 12 million euros in the first half of its 2019/20 fiscal year.

The European Union liberalized its sugar market in 2017, ending its system of guaranteed minimum prices and protected production quotas. That gave European producers more freedom to expand and export but left them exposed to collapsing world prices. — Reuters

Shopping diplomacy

THE International Bazaar Foundation’s International Bazaar 2019 (now on its 53rd year) has a unique proposition: shop — and help bolster international relations at the same time.

BusinessWorld attended a preview of the bazaar’s offerings at the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) on Oct. 24. The Bazaar itself will be held on Nov. 24, from 9 a.m. to 7 p.m. at PICC Forums 1, 2, and 3. Tickets are sold at P150 and donor cards for P250. The tickets are available at Tesoro’s in Makati, at the Special Projects Unit of the old DFA building, and at the PICC gate on the day of the bazaar.

There will be 216 booths at the bazaar, representing 37 embassies and seven consulates. The Philippines will be offering horn accessories from Silnag and textiles from Habi and Kalakal, among other treats like Malagos chocolate.

The Indian embassy showed off jewelry and textiles, and Indonesia’s booth showed off batik items. The booths from both Australia and Argentina showcased snacks and wine. Spain’s booth showed off preserves and wine (a popular choice), while Switzerland’s booth offered chocolate, a fast-selling item during the bazaar.

The International Bazaar Foundation is traditionally headed by the spouse of the Secretary of the DFA, a space now occupied by Maria Lourdes Locsin, wife of Secretary Teodoro “Teddyboy” Locsin, Jr.

“I think what is different is that I have made it my mission to convince more of the foreign embassies to participate, number one,” said Mrs. Locsin. “Number two, is to talk to them and encourage them to lower their prices because I don’t want to appeal only to the market that’s on the high end.”

Asked how her committee curated the items for sale, Mrs. Locsin said that aside from accepting applications, they have also invited bazaar mainstays which are singled out by her staff when they attend bazaars around the country.

As for the booths from the other nations, she said, “The embassies have gone out of their way, like the way Australia has. They’ve contacted traders.”

The bazaar’s primary purpose is charity: among its beneficiaries this year are 41 scholars in colleges and universities in Metro Manila; the Ayala Foundation; Habi; Pilak Silvercraft; Our Lady of Peace Hospital; the Bogo, Cebu Provincial Hospital; the Missionaries of Charity; the Little Sisters of the Poor; Pasay city feeding programs; Steps Mission Foundation; and Sayaw Foundation.

However, is it also possible that the bazaar is a way to improve international relations? Mrs. Locsin agrees. “It does, because the wives are active.”

“When we come to meetings and we do activities, whatever conflicts there are, or disagreements, are forgotten; left outside the door, and we enjoy ourselves,” she said. “It helps our husbands also, because when we get to exchange ideas, you get to know the opinions of whatever country you’re talking to.”

Mrs. Locsin should have said it with a wink: She told BusinessWorld, “As they always say, the wives do have a different network, sometimes more effective.” — Joseph L. Garcia

T-bonds seen fetching lower rates

YIELDS ON reissued seven-year Treasury bonds (T-bond) on offer on Tuesday will likely decline amid strong liquidity and as the market reacts to the “sooner-than-expected” cut in banks’ reserve requirement ratios (RRR).

The Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) is looking to raise P20 billion worth of reissued seven-year T-bonds on Tuesday with a remaining life of six years and three months.

A bond trader said the debt papers’ average rate will likely settle within the 4.35-4.45% range.

Robinsons Bank Corp. peso debt trader Kevin S. Palma said in a mobile phone message on Friday: “Yields of the 7-year paper for reissuance would be lower versus the last time it was auctioned in September.”

“Liquidity will be abundant towards end of the year, due to a jumbo-bond maturity amounting to P197 billion in November, alongside decisive central bank actions to cut banks’ RRR effective November and December by 100 basis points (bp) apiece,” Mr. Palma added.

Last Sept. 10, the Treasury made a partial award of its P20 billion offer of reissued seven-year bonds, raising just P10.399 billion even as total bids amounted to P22.149 billion. The notes fetched an average rate of 4.503%.

At the secondary market on Friday, the seven-year bonds were quoted at 4.528%, according to the PHP Bloomberg Valuation (BVAL) Service Reference Rates published on the Philippine Dealing System’s website.

In a statement on Thursday,the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said its policy-setting Monetary Board (MB) decided to slash the RRR of universal, commercial and thrift banks by another 100 bps effective December, bringing total reductions to their reserve ratios for this year to 400 bps.

The MB said the cut will also apply to the reserve ratio of non-bank financial institutions with quasi-banking functions (NBQBs).

This latest cut will follow a 100-bp reduction in all banks’ RRR announced on Sept. 27 which takes effect next month and will bring the reserve ratio of universal and commercial lenders to 14% by December, while the RRR of thrift banks will stand at four percent.

Meanwhile, the reserve ratio of rural banks, which will go down to three percent next month, was untouched.

On the other hand, the reserve ratio of NBQBs will be cut to 14% by December.

Mr. Palma said the market also expects the US Federal Reserve to slash its benchmark interest rates again by the end of the month.

“Bond bulls may continue to take center stage and dictate the tempo of this auction due to slew of bond-friendly catalysts such as expectations of a Fed cut towards end of the month,” he said.

“Icing on the cake is the sustained downward trend in domestic inflation outlook for the rest of the year along with prospects of a GDP (gross domestic product) growth rebound in the third quarter,” he added.

The BSP’s Economic Research department reported last week that headline inflation in the third quarter slowed further to 1.7% from the three percent clocked in the second quarter.

In September, inflation slowed to 0.9% due to lower prices on food and electricity, taking the nine-month average to 2.8%, well within the central bank’s 2-4% target band for 2019.

The government will release third-quarter GDP growth data on Nov. 7, while inflation data for October will be reported on Nov. 5.

The government is set to borrow P220 billion from the local market this quarter, broken down into P100 billion in Treasury bills and P120 billion via T-bonds.

It is looking to raise P1.189 trillion this year from local and foreign sources to fund its budget deficit, which is expected to widen to as much as 3.2% of GDP. — Beatrice M. Laforga

Bring home all-new wheels with FOTON’s Fun Christmas Holideals

THINKING of a great Christmas present? ‘Tis the season to drive home a brand new ride as FOTON Motor Philippines, Inc. brings an early yearend treat with their Fun Christmas Holideals promo.

Running until Dec. 31, FOTON’s Fun Christmas Holideals showcases low cash-out and low monthly amortizations for the brand’s best-selling passenger and commercial vehicles.

Suitable for either transport business or family applications, the 15-seater TransVan is made available for as low as P78,000 DP, while the 16-seater Traveller and 19-seater Traveller XL vans are only for P98,000 DP. If you’re looking for a more luxurious and flight-like road hit, tap on the Toano Executive van and drive it for as low as P98,000 DP.

For first-time car buyers, even more compelling is the Gratour MiniVan, which is offered at a low monthly amortization of only P5,800. That’s like owning a fully-capable 8-seater van for as low as P194 per day — less than the price of a daily lunch and commute!

If comfort, power, capped off with style are the top stuff to consider, leading the charge are the brand’s SUV and brute pickup truck: the Cummins-powered Toplander and Thunder, both with an automatic transmission, available at P78,000 and P88,000, respectively.

Trucks best for micro, small, and medium enterprises are also up for grabs under Fun Christmas Holideals. The Gratour MT may be availed for as low as P5,143 while the bigger and wider Gratour TM can be bought for as low as P5,800 per month!

Apart from big savings, the all-in low down payment schemes come with free comprehensive insurance with acts of nature, chattel mortgage fee, a 3-year LTO registration plus accessories such as seat covers, matting, and tint. So beat the holiday rush and drop by the nearest FOTON dealership to revel in the Fun Christmas Holideals today.

FOTON is known as Asia’s largest commercial vehicle manufacturer including passenger vehicles, light-duty trucks, medium-duty trucks, heavy-duty trucks and heavy machinery. For inquiries, visit www.foton.com.ph or contact 0999-999-9998. You may also follow them on www.facebook.com/FOTONPhilippines.

DM Consunji tapped for NLEx-SLEx connector

NLEX Corp. said the construction of the first section of the North Luzon Expressway-South Luzon Expressway (NLEx-SLEx) connector road will begin by the second week of November.

“[On the] connector road, we had a final meeting last week with the contractor, so we made final our appointment of DMCI, D.M. Consunji as the contractor for the NLEX Connector Project Section 1. Because the connector project is divided into two sections, we will start with Section 1 first,” Luigi L. Bautista, president and general manager of NLEX, told reporters on Oct. 24.

Mr. Bautista said the contract with construction giant D.M. Consunji, Inc. will be signed next week.

“Next week, we will sign the contract and then the first bored pile that will be executed will be second week of November. So between today and the second week of November, DMCI will start preparing for mobilization.”

Mr. Bautista said the construction on the NLEx-SLEx connector road will take about 20 months.

The P23.3-billion 8-kilometer toll road linking the tail of NLEx Harbor Link Segment 10 in C3 Road, Caloocan City to PUP Sta. Mesa, Manila aims to provide an alternate route for trucks coming from the port area. From Sta. Mesa, vehicles traversing the expressway may connect to the Metro Manila Skyway Stage 3 through an elevated road.

Mr. Bautista said the Section 1 covers five kilometers of the entire 8-kilometer project. “That’s from Caloocan connecting to C3 all the way to España, so five kilometers,” he said.

NLEX has completed preliminary works on the project after a ground-breaking ceremony held last February. Preliminary works included the ground survey, finalization of design, and clearing of roads through tree cutting and relocation of informal settlers.

The target is to open the expressway by December 2021. Once operational, it is expected to reduce travel time from NLEx to SLEx to 20 minutes from the usual two hours. It will have a capacity of 35,000 motorists daily.

“We will open by phases. For the second phase, by next month we will start the bid process to select the contractor for Section 2. So maybe by around February next year, we would have appointed also the contractor for Section 2,” Mr. Bautista said.

NLEX is part of the Metro Pacific Tollways Corp., the tollways unit of Metro Pacific Investments Corp. (MPIC).

MPIC is one of three key Philippine units of Hong Kong-based First Pacific Co. Ltd., the others being Philex Mining Corp. and PLDT, Inc. Hastings Holdings, Inc., a unit of PLDT Beneficial Trust Fund subsidiary MediaQuest Holdings, Inc., has a majority stake in BusinessWorld through the Philippine Star Group, which it controls. — Arjay L. Balinbin

China buys 264,000 tons of US soybeans: USDA

PRIVATE EXPORTERS reported the sale of 264,000 tons of US soybeans to China for delivery in the 2019/20 marketing year, the US Agriculture Department said on Thursday, amid hopes for a partial trade deal between the world’s two largest economies.

That marked the first US government confirmation of a soybean sale to the top buyer of the oilseed since President Donald Trump said on Oct. 11 that China would buy up to $50 billion in American farm products as part of a trade agreement.

An earlier USDA report showed total US soybean export sales of 475,200 tons, including just 68,300 tones to China in the week ended Oct. 17. Analysts’ forecasts for the weekly report had ranged from 800,000 tons to 1.6 million tons.

A Bloomberg report said China was willing to buy $20 billion of US farm goods in the first year of a trade deal.

Beijing on Tuesday offered major Chinese and international soybean processors waivers that would exempt the companies from steep tariffs on imports of up to 10 million tons of US soybeans, according to two people briefed on the matter.

USDA has confirmed sales of about 6 million tons of soybeans to China since the marketing year began on Sept. 1. That compares with cancellations of 431,000 tons in the comparable period of 2018 and about 8.4 million tons in the comparable period of 2017, before the trade war began.

Traders are also closely watching US pork sales to China, where a fatal pig disease had decimated the world’s largest hog herd, raising the need for meat imports.

China’s total purchases of US pork last week were 2,002 tons, the smallest in five weeks, according to USDA data. That was down from record-large weekly purchases of 152,599 tons reported in the week ended Oct. 10, although USDA said sales from previous weeks may have been included.

Beijing imposed hefty tariffs on imports of US pork as part of the trade war.

In Brazil, Agriculture Minister Tereza Cristina Dias said in a video on Twitter that her country is confident Chinese authorities will authorize more Brazilian meat exporters before Chinese President Xi Jinping visits Brazil next month. — Reuters

Nike partners with NBA 2K20 to introduce gamer exclusive sneakers

IN A groundbreaking partnership, Nike has teamed up with NBA 2K20 to release limited-edition sneakers called Gamer Exclusives (GEs).

Riding on the backbone of a combined membership experience which supports a shared community of gamers and sneaker fans, the GEs are unlocked exclusively through gameplay in NBA 2K20’s new MyPLAYER Nation mode, a new gamemode co-created by 2K, publisher of NBA 2K20, and Nike Basketball.

MyPLAYER Nation allows NBA 2K20 players to select their favorite team and play with a community of fans throughout the 2019-20 NBA regular season and playoffs. The game mode’s schedule will mirror the NBA schedule, and gamers will be able to unlock opportunities to purchase GEs throughout the season by reaching specified milestones.

To purchase a GE, a player must link their Nike and 2K accounts and install the SNKRS mobile app. Furthermore, players can redeem virtual versions of GEs for use throughout the full NBA 2K20 experience.

A total of 10 GEs will be released through the NBA 2K20 game experience during the 2019-20 season. Nine of these will connect directly to Nike MyPLAYER Nation milestones, while the 10th will be unlocked through a surprise Nike SNKRS cam execution.

To be featured first for the GE shoe is a flooded purple LeBron 17, which boasts of a special edition colorway that has the 2K logo and NBA 2K20’s WELCOME TO THE NEXT tagline over the iconic purple color of the Los Angeles Lakers, the current team of National Basketball Association superstar LeBron James.

To get this GE, players must upskill their MyPLAYER avatar to 98, eclipsing LeBron’s in-game rating of 97. Afterward, winning your next matchup in MyPLAYER Nation will trigger the unlock.

The MyPLAYER Nation game mode was launched on Oct. 22, the same time as the tipoff of the 2019-20 season of the NBA.

The LeBron 17 ’Bron 2K GE is available Oct. 29 and, initially, physical GE sneakers can only be purchased in the United States; virtual versions are accessible to all 2K players.

To learn more about all GE releases, install the Nike SNKRS mobile app. To connect 2K and Nike accounts, visit www.nba2K.com. — Michael Angelo S. Murillo

Yields on gov’t debt rally

By Lourdes O. Pilar
Researcher

YIELDS ON government securities (GS) fell last week as market players reacted to another cut in banks’ reserve requirement ratios (RRR).

Debt yields went down by an average of 1.4 basis points (bp) on a week-on-week basis, according to the PHP Bloomberg Valuation Service (BVAL) Reference Rates published on the Philippine Dealing System’s website last Oct. 25.

“Local yields slightly fell as participants noted the BSP’s (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) latest announcement of another 100-bp reduction in the RRR on December this year and including some movement ahead of a similar reduction effective next month,” a bond trader said in an e-mail interview.

“There was also strong downward pressure on the longer end of the yield curve due to safe-haven demand from lingering geopolitical uncertainties abroad,” the bond trader added.

In a separate email, ATRAM Trust Corp. Head of Fixed Income Jose Miguel B. Liboro noted that GS yields initially went up “in the absence of fresh catalysts.”

“With inflation expected to move gradually higher beginning November and global yields consolidating, we saw some profit taking. This reversed as the announcement of the most recent cut in the RRR caused a flurry of buying, particularly on the longer-end of the yield curve which had adjusted higher over the last couple of weeks,” Mr. Liboro explained.

In a statement last Thursday, the BSP said its policy-setting Monetary Board decided to slash the RRR of universal, commercial and thrift banks by another 100 bps, bringing total reductions to their reserve ratios for this year to 400 bps.

This marked the fourth time the central bank has cut the banks’ RRR, with the latest reduction to take effect in December. This will follow a 100-bp reduction announced on Sept. 27 that takes effect next month and will bring the reserve ratio of universal and commercial lenders to 14% and the RRR of thrift banks to four percent.

The reserve ratio of rural banks, which will go down to three percent next month, was left untouched, while those of non-bank financial institutions with quasi-banking functions will be cut to 14% by December.

With the exception of the 91-day and seven-year debt papers, all tenors rallied at the secondary market last Friday.

At the short end, the 182- and 364-day Treasury bills (T-bills) went down by 0.6 bp and 2.9 bps to yield 3.264% and 3.608%, respectively.

At the belly of the curve, the rates of the two-, three-, four-, and five-year Treasury bonds (T-bonds) declined by 2 bps (3.890%); 2.4 bps (4.026%); 2 bps (4.164%), and one basis point (4.303%), respectively.

Meanwhile, at the long end, the 10-, 20-, and 25-year T-bonds saw their yields go down by 3.3 bps (4.705%), 3.4 bps (5.039%); and 1.7 bps (5.037%).

On the other hand, the rate of the 91-day and 7-year debt papers went up by 3 bps (3.142%) and 0.6 bp (4.528%), respectively.

For this week, ATRAM Trust’s Mr. Liboro said the seven-year auction “is likely to be well-supported” given the “increased buying sentiment in the market.”

“Markets are pricing in an interest rate cut and any risk of disappointment is likely to cause a move higher in global yields which could feed into the local bond market,” Mr. Liboro said, adding that the US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting at the end of this month “could add to the volatility.”

For the bond trader: “[Y]ields might continue to move with a downward bias [this week] on expectations of further easing by the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.”

“Yields might also fall amid possibly weaker US and Eurozone GDP (gross domestic product) data as well as lingering Brexit uncertainties,” the bond trader added.

Subaru says thank you through 2019 Kansha Festival

MOTOR IMAGE PILIPINAS, Inc., the exclusive distributor of Subaru vehicles in the Philippines, shows utmost gratitude to new and current Subaru owners for their unwavering support and patronage of the brand at the 2019 Kansha Festival. From Oct. 21 to 31 customers get to enjoy special after-sales parts and services promos in all Subaru branches and authorized dealers nationwide:

On top of that, Subaru PH will also be offering: 20% off recommended parts replacement, 20% off labor recommendations, up to 30% off selected accessory parts and Free Service Clinic.

Calling all existing and soon-to-be Subie owners, come pay a visit to your nearest dealership and celebrate with us. Snacks and refreshments await along with exclusive sales offers on select models. Don’t miss the chance to avail of these once-in-a-year deals and book a service appointment today at www.subaru.asia/ph/2019kanshafestival.

Peso to strengthen ahead of Fed policy meeting

THE PESO may strengthen this week on expectations of another rate cut from the US Federal Reserve and amid the ongoing US-China and Brexit talks.

The local unit finished trading at P51.135 against the greenback on Friday, stronger by 10 centavos compared to the P51.24-a-dollar close on Thursday.

It also appreciated by 16 centavos week-on-week against its P51.295 finish on Oct. 18.

Dollars traded on Friday rose to $1.396 billion from $1.225 billion on Thursday.

Traders attributed the local unit’s gains to the fresh reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut announced Thursday as well as the Brexit blues which worked well for emerging market currencies.

“The market seemed to also factor in the RRR cut by the BSP (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) as it will be beneficial in the medium term for Philippine growth and the financial markets,” a trader said in a phone call Friday.

“There is a slight risk-on sentiment overnight given the uncertainty of Brexit talk. The day also saw emerging market currencies including those in Southeast Asian up against the dollar,” another trader said in a phone call.

The BSP cut banks’ RRR for the fourth time this year, with the latest reduction to take effect in December.

In a statement on Thursday, the BSP said its policy-setting Monetary Board (MB) decided to slash the RRR of universal, commercial and thrift banks by another 100 basis points (bp), bringing total reductions to their reserve ratios for this year to 400 bps.

The MB said the cut will also apply to the reserve ratio of non-bank financial institutions with quasi-banking functions.

Meanwhile, the European Union settled on Friday to grant London’s request for a Brexit deadline extension but set no new departure date.

For this week, the first trader said the market will be monitoring the Fed meeting.

The other trader said new developments related to the Brexit and the US-China talks will guide the peso’s movement this week.

“The Brexit talks are still on the table as well as the US-China trade negotiations,” he said.

The first trader sees the peso moving within the P50.70-51.40 range against the dollar, while the second trader expects the local unit to play around the P51.00-51.40 band. — LWTN with Reuters

Stocks seen sideways in shortened trading week

LOCAL SHARES are seen to trade sideways this week as trading is cut a day shorter due to the observance of All Saints’ Day on Friday.

The start of filing of quarterly reports by listed firms last week pulled the benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) down 28.48 points or 0.35% to close at 7,922.50 on Friday.

But on a weekly basis, the main index was still on an upward path, closing 0.47% up to record its third straight week of gains.

Value turnover remained slim at P26.22 billion on Oct. 21-25, gaining slightly from P25.08 billion the week prior.

“The general investor sentiment has remained very cautious as the appetite for equities continues to dwindle by the day,” AAA Southeast Equities, Inc. Research Head Christopher John Mangun said in a market note about last week’s trading.

He said the central bank’s decision on Thursday to cut the reserve ratio requirement for banks by another 100 basis points will free up almost P110 billion in cash, and should therefore be “extremely good for our economy.” However, he said “the market had almost no reaction,” showing that “retail investors continue to speculate on second and third liners.”

For the coming week, Mr. Mangun said he expects muted trading because of the holiday on Nov. 1.

“(The PSEi) may inch higher potentially testing 8,000, However, we may see an increase in selling pressure as investors take some risk off the table ahead of the holiday,” he said.

Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Sales Luis A. Limlingan gave the same resistance level, saying it will be heavy approaching the 8,000 mark.

“Market will probably react to window dressing since shortened week. Investors will also be keeping an eye out on the outcome of the latest (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting during the middle of the week,” he said in a mobile message.

For Diversified Securities, Inc. Equity Trader Aniceto K. Pangan, the market is expected to consolidate this week “depending on the progress of the US-China trade talks negotiation, as well as the Brexit deal.”

The United States and China are still working to finalize its “phase one” deal in an effort to end its almost two-year trade war, while United Kingdom lives a few more days as part of the European Union after being granted a Brexit deadline extension last week.

Mr. Mangun also said the US Federal Reserve’s decision on monetary policy this week will likely impact the stock market.

Regina Capital’s Mr. Limlingan added that the release of third-quarter earnings reports may drive investors to be stock-specific for the coming week.

But Mr. Mangun noted, “the market remains in limbo, trading sideways with no real direction. Investors are still trading solely on the sentiment and not looking at fundamentals at all.”

“We are still expecting a big move in the coming months. The question on everyone’s mind is whether we will be seeing new highs or new multi-year lows,” Mr. Mangun said. — Denise A. Valdez

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