TORONTO — Canada’s immigration minister says he plans to propose measures to reform the country’s refugee system, potentially fast-tracking refusals of cases deemed to have little chance of succeeding.

Experts and advocates warned that could violate asylum-seekers’ right to due process and could be challenged in court.

“I plan to put forward more measures. I want to reform the system. It’s not working in the way it should,” Immigration Minister Marc Miller told a parliamentary committee on Monday.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been changing his government’s welcoming stance on migrants, pledging to cut immigration and reduce Canada’s population over the next two years as his party trails in polls and Canadians surveyed profess dwindling support for new arrivals.

Canada’s Immigration and Refugee Board, an independent adjudicator of refugee claims, is seeing claims from “people having increasingly fewer hopes to stay in Canada and being counseled to file, I think unjustly, asylum claims where they shouldn’t have the ability to do so,” Mr. Miller added.

Canada has seen its highest number of refugee claims ever in recent months. Although the monthly total has dropped to about 17,400 in October from about 20,000 in July, the number of claims pending is the highest ever — at more than 260,000 last month.

More than 265,000 non-permanent residents came to Canada in the second quarter of 2024, according to Statistics Canada.

Thousands of the refugee claims are from international students filing refugee claims, whose veracity Mr. Miller has questioned.

The reforms would be aimed in part at preventing people who planned to use their international study as a path to permanence in Canada from filing refugee claims as a last-ditch effort to stay now that new rules have closed off that path. Refugee claims were rising prior to the new rules.

“There are an increasing number of international students making asylum claims, I think with very little hope, given their conditions,” Mr. Miller said.

“Are there things we can do to make sure that’s more streamlined? I would encourage you to follow the next few weeks as we propose more amendments to the immigration system and the asylum system.”

Mr. Miller did not say what those changes will be. He is “exploring options related to asylum reforms,” spokesperson Renee LeBlanc Proctor wrote in an e-mail Tuesday.

But fast-tracking refugee refusals would likely meet legal challenges on the grounds that it “short-circuits” procedural fairness, said University of Toronto law professor and Human Rights Chair Audrey Macklin.

“You can’t say (in effect) ‘We think this is a ‘bogus’ claim so we won’t bother with a hearing,’” she wrote in an e-mail Tuesday.

Advocates for migrants have argued for better resourcing of the Immigration and Refugee Board so it can process more claims faster, and potentially fast-tracking claims from countries with high acceptance rates because they are more likely to succeed. — Reuters

Officials from Mexico, Canada and China and major industry groups warned that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s threat of hefty tariffs on goods would harm the economies of all involved, cause inflation to spike and damage job markets.

Trump’s pledge announced on Monday roiled currency, bond and equity markets on Tuesday, as the three countries are the United States’ largest trading partners. Mexico and Canada are particularly intertwined in U.S. auto production and energy output thanks to decades of trade agreements between the North American neighbors.

Trump’s plan to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports on his first day in office does not exempt crude oil as industry executives had hoped, two sources familiar with the plan told Reuters on Tuesday.

Leaders and other top officials warned a trade war could erupt and economies be damaged, and sought talks with Trump after the surprise announcement, which includes an extra 10% levy on Chinese goods – until the three countries clamp down on the flow of illicit drugs and migrant border crossings.

“To one tariff will follow another in response and so on, until we put our common businesses at risk,” Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said during a regular press conference. Sheinbaum said she planned to send a letter to Trump and would seek a call with him to discuss the issue.

A Bank of Canada official said any move by Trump to deliver on the threat would reverberate on both sides of the U.S. northern border.

“What happens in the U.S. has a big impact on us, and something like this would clearly have an impact on both economies,” Deputy Governor Rhys Mendes told audience members at an event in Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island.

Earlier, a spokesperson for China’s embassy in Washington said: “No one will win a trade war or a tariff war.”

The three countries shipped a total of more than $1 trillion of goods to the United States in the first nine months of the year, led by Mexico and followed by China and then Canada, according to U.S. Commerce Department data as of September.

Tariffs are paid by the companies that import goods and often passed to consumers, even though Trump frequently erroneously states that tariffs would be imposed on the foreign nations in question.

“The folly here is that such tariffs will, in the end, boomerang back to the U.S. in the form of higher inflation and rising interest rates,” said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist for the Economic Outlook Group. Trump “will undo the singular pledge he gave to Americans during the campaign, which is to bring the cost of living down.”

If Trump follows through on the tariff plans, consumers may face higher prices for avocados, strawberries and other fresh produce, as well as meat, agricultural economists and industry executives said.

Mexico and Canada are by far the top two suppliers of farm products to the United States, with imports of agricultural goods valued at nearly $86 billion last year, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture and U.S. Customs data.

RENEGOTIATING USMCA?
The threatened levies would appear to violate the terms of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on trade. The deal, which Trump signed into law, took effect in 2020 and continued the largely duty-free trade between the three North American countries; the deal sunsets in 2026.

Warren Maruyama, former general counsel for the U.S. Trade Representative under President George H.W. Bush, said Trump could declare a national emergency, which would unlock the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and allow him to impose the tariffs with relative ease.

“If precedent is any indication, it’s a serious uphill fight” to challenge actions taken under that umbrella, he said.

The tariffs could also prompt an early renegotiation of the USMCA, ahead of the planned 2026 review, trade experts said.

‘DISASTER FOR THE U.S. AUTO INDUSTRY’
Trump’s broadside sent the Mexican and Canadian currencies tumbling, and shares of U.S. and European automakers dropped on the increased uncertainty.

“If implemented, this would spell disaster for the U.S. auto industry and Detroit Three manufacturers, all of whom import significant numbers of vehicles from Canada and Mexico, as well as Volkswagen and other European OEMs,” Bernstein analyst Daniel Roeska said in a note.

Ford and General Motors were among automakers whose shares fell sharply. Energy shares were mixed.

Drilling and refining industry lobbying groups warned of big effects, including higher import prices and less available supplies of oil feedstocks and products, as well as potential retaliation that could hurt consumers.

The United States needs to import crude oil to meet its daily consumption needs, and Canada is its biggest foreign supplier, sending more than 4 million barrels daily, largely by pipeline.

“Maintaining the free flow of energy products across our borders is critical for North American energy security and U.S. consumers,” said Scott Lauermann, spokesperson for API, a trade group representing the U.S. natural gas and oil industry.

Deutsche Bank analysts on Tuesday estimated the proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada would increase U.S. inflation temporarily, and they raised their 2025 core personal consumption expenditure price index inflation forecast from 2.6% to 3.7%. It was at 2.7% in September.

FOCUS ON FENTANYL
Trump had pledged throughout his presidential campaign to levy tariffs of varying degrees on U.S. trading partners, part of his promise to “put America first.”

Imposing import duties was a major policy plank during his first four-year term, and like now, he has also threatened them for non-economic reasons. In 2019, he threatened 5% tariffs on Mexico over the influx of migrants over the southern U.S. border, but called then off after Mexico agreed to take steps to tighten border controls.

In the current case, the flow into the U.S. of illicit drugs, particularly fentanyl, was added to Trump’s mix of grievances with the three countries. The number of U.S. deaths from fentanyl overdoses actually declined in 2023, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, although nearly 75,000 people still succumbed to the powerful opioid.

Some said the tariffs could be an opening bid for negotiation. “It leaves the door open to Canada and Mexico coming up with a credible plan over the next two months to try and avoid those tariffs,” said Thomas Ryan, North America economist at Capital Economics.

Trump’s plans regarding China were unclear since he previously pledged to impose tariffs of 60% or higher. On his social media site, he spoke only of “an additional 10% Tariff, above any additional Tariffs, on all of their many products coming into the United States of America.” — Reuters

President-elect Donald Trump on Monday pledged tariffs on the United States’ three largest trading partners – Canada, Mexico and China – detailing how he will implement campaign promises that could trigger trade wars.

Here are companies which may be affected (by sector, in alphabetical order):

AUTOMAKERS

AUDI
Volkswagen’s Audi plant in San Jose Chiapa, Mexico, makes the Q5, employing just over 5,000 people. It produced nearly 176,000 cars in 2023, its website showed. In the first half of 2024, nearly 40,000 were exported to the U.S., according to the Mexican Automotive Manufacturers Association.

BMW
BMW’s plant in San Luis Potosi, Mexico, produces the 3 Series, 2 Series Coupe and M2, with nearly all the output going to the U.S. and other markets worldwide, according to the carmaker. From 2027, it will produce the all-electric ‘Neue Klasse’ model line.

BYD
Chinese EV maker BYD has been scouting for locations to build a plant in Mexico but has said repeatedly that the factory will serve the domestic market and not produce cars to be sold in the U.S.

HONDA MOTOR
Honda Motor sends 80% of its Mexican output to the U.S. market and its chief operating officer Shinji Aoyama warned on Nov. 6 that it would have to think about shifting production if the U.S. were to impose permanent tariffs on vehicles imported from the country.

JAC MOTORS
JAC Motors has since 2017 had a joint venture in Mexico with Giant Motors to assemble JAC brand vehicles. SAIC-owned in August announced plans to build a plant in the country.

KIA CORP
South Korea’s Kia Corp has a factory in Mexico that makes its own vehicles and a small number of Santa Fe SUVs for its affiliate Hyundai Motor for U.S. exports.

MAZDA
Mazda exported around 120,000 vehicles from Mexico to the United States in 2023. Mazda President Masahiro Moro said on Nov. 7 that the tariff issue is “not a problem that can be solved by individual companies” and it would carefully examine the details before deciding its response.

NISSAN MOTOR
Nissan Motor has two plants in Mexico where it makes the Sentra, Versa and Kicks models for the U.S. market. It produced nearly 505,000 vehicles in Mexico in the first nine months of 2024. The company does not disclose how many of those were exported to the U.S. market.

STELLANTIS
Stellantis operates two assembly plants in Mexico: Saltillo, which makes Ram pick-ups and vans, and Toluca, for the Jeep Compass mid-sized SUV. The Franco-Italian group also owns two assembly plants in Ontario, Canada: Windsor, where it makes Chrysler models, and Brampton, currently under retooling and scheduled to resume production in 2025 with a new Jeep model.

TOYOTA MOTOR
Toyota Motor builds its Tacoma pick-up truck at two plants in Mexico. It sold more than 230,000 of them in the U.S. in 2023, representing about 10% of its total sales in that market. Toyota used to produce the Tacoma in the U.S. but now ships all of them from Mexico, which accounts for most of the production at the plants.

VOLKSWAGE
Volkswagen’s factory in Puebla is the largest auto plant in Mexico and one of the largest in the VW Group, according to the carmaker’s website. Nearly 350,000 cars were made there in 2023, including the Jetta, Tiguan and Taos, all for export to the U.S.

AUTO SUPPLIERS

AUTOLIV
Sweden’s Autoliv, the world largest maker of airbags and seat belts, said it employs around 15,000 staff in Mexico, declining to comment on exports into the U.S. from there.

MICHELIN
Tire maker Michelin has two plants in Mexico — Queretaro and Leon — and three in Canada: Pictou, Bridgewater and Waterville.

YANFENG
Chinese seat maker Yanfeng Automotive Interiors have been producing in Mexico for years to supply automakers including General Motors and Toyota, which had relocated their capacity to Mexico to lower costs.

OTHERS
Other part makers with plants in Mexico serving automotive production for the U.S. market include Italian tiremaker Pirelli, Italian premium brake maker Brembo and Italy’s Eurogroup Laminations.

Eurogroup Laminations, which has Tesla among its clients, specialises in stators and rotors, two key components of electric motors and generators.

U.S. automaker Tesla encouraged its Chinese suppliers to set up plants in Mexico in 2023 to mainly supply its planned factory in Mexico.

Tesla originally planned to start production in Mexico in early 2025 but has largely shifted to an expansion plan for its Texas plant.

ELECTRONICS

FOXCONN
The world’s biggest electronics contract manufacturer Foxconn is building a giant artificial intelligence server factory in collaboration with Nvidia in Mexico. It plans to start production early in 2025 making a liquid-cooled server containing Nvidia’s new and powerful Blackwell family of AI chips.

LENOVO
Chinese computer maker Lenovo produces servers and other data center products at a massive site in Monterrey, Mexico, which it expanded in 2021. It said at the time that all of its data center products for the North American market are manufactured in Monterrey.

LG ELECTRONICS
South Korea’s LG Electronics makes TVs, home appliances and EV parts at its Mexican sites. It said on Nov. 26 that it is reviewing possibilities including changes in trade policies.

SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS
South Korea’s Samsung Electronics makes TVs and home appliances in Mexico and exports them to the U.S.

FOOD & DRINK

CAMPARI
Italian spirits group Campari CPRI.MI has three production sites in Mexico, the main one producing tequila under their brand Espolon, and one in Canada, producing a brand of Canadian whisky (Forty Creek), according to their latest sustainability report.

They have no production sites in China. According to Citi, Campari imports 27% of its U.S. sales from Mexico and Canada.

RETAIL
Swedish fast-fashion retailer H&M said it is “continuously looking into risks linked to tariffs”. China is one of the biggest manufacturing markets for Swedish fast-fashion retailer H&M, which sells in the United States. “We are focusing on securing our processes to minimise any negative impact on our supply chain so that we can continue serving our store and online customers in the US going forward,” the company said in a statement.

PACKAGED GOODS COMPANIES
Procter & Gamble and Unilever are among big packaged goods companies exposed to tariffs on imports from Mexico, data shows.

About 10% of P&G’s shipments in the three months to end-September were from Mexico, according to import data provider ImportYeti. Around 2% of Unilever’s sea imports into the United States come from Mexico, the data shows.

Both companies and other big consumer groups such as Pepsico and Lay’s chips, have collectively invested hundreds of millions of dollars in their Mexican supply chains. — Reuters