Global coffee trade hit hard by brutal price hikes

March 10, 2025 | 12:02 am

HOUSTON — Global coffee traders and roasters say they have slashed their purchases to minimal levels, as the industry reels from a steep surge in prices that suppliers have yet to convince retail stores to accept.

At the US National Coffee Association annual convention in Houston this week, attendees said they have been in shock at a 70% increase since November for Arabica coffee futures on the ICE exchange, the benchmark for coffee deals around the world.

Renan Chueiri, director general at ELCAFE C.A. in Ecuador, said this year is the first time the instant coffee maker hasn’t sold all of its expected annual production by March.

“We would usually be sold out by now, but so far we sold less than 30% of production,” he said. “The big price increase eats clients’ cash flow, they don’t have all the money to buy what they need.”

The coffee price hikes have stemmed from lower production in important coffee growing regions, particularly in top grower Brazil, reducing the availability of beans.

“Nobody wants to be exposed, nobody is buying for future delivery, it is all hand to mouth,” said one coffee broker,asking not to be identified due to the sensitivity of the issue.

By “hand to mouth”, he was referring to the practice of buying only what is necessary for the moment and eschewing stockpiling.

Many recent deals in Brazil, he said, have been conducted in a very conservative manner.

“You close a deal, and then you have seven days to go to the farm or warehouse and get your coffee. You check the quality, and if it is ok, you make the payment on the site and drive away with the coffee.”

A recent Reuters poll predicted that Arabica coffee prices could fall 30% by the end of the year, as high prices curb demand and early signs point to a bumper Brazilian crop next year.

But until prices drop significantly, much of the coffee industry could be in for a world of pain.

A chief executive of a major roaster in the US — the world’s largest market for coffee consumption, said some of his clients are not sure they can continue to be in business.

“They don’t know if they will be able to sell their product at the new prices,” he said, also asking not to be identified. “Some people are going down.”

The CEO said supermarkets and grocery stores had been pushing back against the higher prices asked by roasters. Negotiations were taking a long time and some retail outlets were starting to be short of coffee on the shelves.

“It has been a nightmare,” he added.

Coffee warehouses close to ports in the US, which receive beans coming from Central and South America, currently have half their normal volumes, said an executive for one of the largest companies in the storage sector.

“Some storing companies are returning silos to the owners, canceling leasing contracts early,” he said.

Michael Von Luehrte, owner of broker MVLcoffee, said the coffee market, particularly on the trading side, could see consolidation.

Companies with more capital will be able to increase trading volumes, while others will suffer with reduced financing, he added.

Commodities trader Louis Dreyfus said in a presentation during the conference that the coffee planted area has been expanding in reaction to the higher prices.

Expansion has happened in countries such as India, Uganda, Ethiopia and Brazil. The company believes that if Brazil manages to have one big crop, then that in combination with the new planted areas could lead to a collapse in prices. — Reuters

Adidas, Mercedes-AMG Petronas F1 Team debut collection

March 10, 2025 | 12:02 am

ADIDAS and the Mercedes-AMG Petronas F1 Team presented their first collection, said to be “designed around shared principles of performance and excellence,” and meant for athletes and fans. The new team wear has been carefully crafted with specific cuts, performance technologies, and functionalities to optimally support each member of the team during race weekends while unifying them — and their fans — with a central design story of black, white and shades of the Mercedes-AMG Petronas F1 Team.

The collection is divided into apparel for drivers, mechanics, engineers, and fans. The pinnacle of the entire line is the paddock wear created for Mercedes-AMG Petronas F1 Team drivers, namely George Russell and Kimi Antonelli. The product line features lightweight fabric made with Aeroready technology. For its mechanics wear, Adidas said it recognizes the physicality of the role, so the mechanic’s tops were engineered with flexibility and lightness, along with reflective details in the front and back. Meanwhile, the engineer range fuses lifestyle cues and performance technologies with traditional cuts synonymous with these team architects. A hero piece crafted for the engineers is the lightweight, technical polo top, created with breathable materials to replace the classic white shirt.

Finally, for fans, additional fanwear and driver fanwear collections are unveiled. These fuse influences of streetwear with motorsport culture, and feature loungewear, hoodies, tops, and T-shirts, with additional driver-specific fanwear coming later this year.

The range features a holistic offer of special-edition performance and lifestyle trainers to complete the collection. Iconic running silhouettes, Ultraboost 5, and Supernova provide added comfort and performance in the paddock, while iconic Adidas sneakers further allow fans to pledge their support from the sidelines and beyond. The collection is completed with a selection of technical and lifestyle caps so fans can identify with their favorite team.

The Adidas x Mercedes-AMG Petronas F1 fanwear collection is now available online at adidas.com/motorsport and select stores, with more stocks to be released in Adidas, FootLocker, Planet Sports, and Sports Central.

Meralco targets rollout of 3.27 million smart meters

March 10, 2025 | 12:02 am

POWER DISTRIBUTOR Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) plans to deploy 3.27 million smart meters under its advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) program between 2025 and 2029.

“It aims to provide a more efficient and automated infrastructure in compliance with the regulatory requirements discussed in the Customer Choice Programs, such as the Competitive Retail Electricity Market, Green Energy Option Program, and Retail Aggregation Program,” Ronnie L. Aperocho, executive vice-president and chief operating officer of Meralco, said in an interview.

The program also supports other initiatives such as net metering and time-of-use and delivers additional customer benefits by improving energy consumption awareness and response times to outages, he said.

AMI refers to an integrated system of smart meters, communication networks, and implementation systems that enables two-way communication between utilities and customers. Smart meters are digital electronic meters that allow electricity consumers to monitor their power consumption in real time.

The smart meter rollout is part of Meralco’s application for its proposed P215-billion capital expenditure plan for the fifth regulatory period, covering 2026 to 2029.

Meralco completed its pilot test for postpaid smart meters on Dec. 9, 2024, with 5,248 active customers as of year-end. The company implemented a phased approach to onboard customers and collect extensive data across different areas, customer segments, and seasonal variations.

“Customers appreciate their ability to monitor their running consumption, which helps them manage their electricity usage and avoid bill shock at the end of the month,” Mr. Aperocho said.

The power distributor expects to gain more detailed customer metrics after completing its customer experience research in the third quarter of 2025.

“Hopefully, the ERC will allow us, given the positive results of the pilot,” Mr. Aperocho said.

Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) Chairperson and Chief Executive Officer Monalisa C. Dimalanta said in an earlier interview that the commission is carefully evaluating the program, given the high cost of the communication system.

“We’re thinking of other ways to approach it. We recognize the need to mature into that technology, but we’re considering that it may not be necessary to implement it wholesale. A phased approach is also under review,” she said.

In November last year, Meralco signed a memorandum of understanding with Korea Electric Power Corp. and its Knowledge Data Network to advance smart metering technologies to empower consumers and enhance grid reliability.

Since 2011, Meralco has been integrating smart metering technologies into its distribution network to improve operational efficiency and grid resiliency.

The company has already deployed prepaid metering, with an installed base of around 95,000 customers, Mr. Aperocho said.

Meralco’s controlling stakeholder, Beacon Electric Asset Holdings, Inc., is partly owned by PLDT Inc.

Hastings Holdings, Inc., a unit of PLDT Beneficial Trust Fund subsidiary MediaQuest Holdings, Inc., has an interest in BusinessWorld through the Philippine Star Group, which it controls. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera

Listed banks’ share prices fall in fourth quarter

March 10, 2025 | 12:01 am

By Abigail Marie P. Yraola, Deputy Research Head

BANK STOCKS struggled in the fourth quarter of 2024 as rate cuts coupled with rising inflation and developments abroad affect profit margins, analysts said.

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) declined by 10.2% in the last three months, a reversal from the 13.4% growth a quarter earlier.

However, year on year, the local bourse inched up by 1.2%.

The financials subindex, which includes the banks, fell by 6.1% in the October to December period. Year on year, the subindex rose by 24.1%.

During the period, 10 out of 15 listed banks fell on a quarterly basis. Bank of Commerce loed the decliners with a 23.3% drop, followed by Philippine Bank of Communications (-11.1%) and Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI, -9.7%),

On an annual basis, 12 out of 15 banks posted growth in their share prices at the end of fourth quarter. China Banking Corp. (Chinabank) led with 105.8% year-on-year surge. It was followed by Asia United Bank Corp. (AUB, 88.1%) and Philippine National Bank (PNB, 49.7%).

Despite the unfavorable sentiment of the stock market for the period, aggregate net income of universal and commercial banks grew by 9.7% to P366.02 billion as of end-December from P333.76 billion in 2023, data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed.

Gross total loan portfolio of these big lenders rose by 10.5% to P14.20 trillion as of end-December from P12.85 trillion a year ago.

The big banks’ gross nonperforming loans (NPLs) ratio slightly inched up to 2.99% as of end-December from 2.96% in December 2023.

Meanwhile, the big banks’ net interest margin (NIM) — a ratio that measures banks’ efficiency in investing their funds by dividing annualized net interest income to average earning asset — rose to 4.04% in the fourth quarter from 3.84% recorded in the same period a year earlier.

Provision for credit losses by these big banks reached P101.15 billion, up by 29.5% from P79.10 billion in December 2023.

Ralph Jonathan B. Fausto, research associate at China Bank Securities Corp., said that macroeconomic factors affecting the market primarily influenced the stock performance of listed banks in the fourth quarter.

“Investors digested the possible impact of potential changes to US policy on the economic and growth outlook,” Mr. Fausto said in an e-mail.

He also pointed out that the US administration’s policy priorities, including the prospect of trade tariffs, led investors to anticipate a more cautious approach to policy easing by both the US Federal Reserve and the BSP.

“For banks, a more restrained path to policy easing and macro uncertainties could lead to tempered loan demand from businesses and consumers,” he added.

Wendy B. Estacio-Cruz, head of research at Unicapital Securities, Inc., said that some listed banks recorded double-digit growth in their net income mainly due to high net interest margins as interest rates remain elevated.

“In terms of share price movement, majority of banks declined due to negative market sentiment. However, do note that most of the listed banks, especially the top banks, continue to show strong earnings growth and high Return on Equity (RoE),” Maybank Securities, Inc. Research said in an e-mail.

Favorable macroeconomic and regulatory developments have supported bank earnings during the period with stabilizing inflation and interest rates lifting loan demand coupled with the reduction in reserve requirements supporting lending margins, Abigail Kathryn L. Chiw, first vice-president and head of research at BDO Securities Corp., said in an e-mail.

Maybank Securities also said that most banks during the quarter have the same trend share price movement.

“For the exception of Chinabank, note that it continues to do well in terms of loan growth, profitability and RoE. But what made CBC resilient versus other banks share pricewise is due to its high probability in being added in the PSE index,” Maybank Securities said.

For Arielle Anne D. Santos, an equity analyst at Regina Capital Development Corp., some banks, like BPI and UBP, saw strong performances due to consumer loan growth, fee income, digital initiatives, and effective risk management strategies.

“BPI benefited from consumer loans and fee income, while UBP gained from its acquisition of Citi’s retail business and its digital initiatives,” Ms. Santos said.

Other reasons for banks that have reported their earnings result include expanding NIM and improving NPL ratios (as in the case for BPI) as well as achieving positive returns and expanding consumer loan portfolio during the quarter.

“[The] strong performance was driven by substantial growth in noninterest income and a significant reduction in provisions, complementing solid expansion in core lending revenues,” Mr. Fausto said.

The central bank slashed its key rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.75% in their Monetary Board meeting last December. Since its easing cycle in August, the BSP has reduced rate by a total of 75 bps.

However, during their first policy meeting this year, the BSP held rate cuts, surprising market expectations and at the same time signaled fewer rate cuts.

“In the near term, investors need to watch out for the movements of the BSP in terms of policy rate cuts and reserve requirement ratios (RRR) cuts,” Maybank Securities said.

In September 2024, the central bank decided to reduce RRR by 250 bps to 7% from 9.5% for banks and nonbank financial institutions with quasi-banking functions which took effect on Oct. 25.

In February, the central bank announced they will cut RRR by 200 bps to 5% from 7% for universal and commercial banks (U/KBs) and nonbank financial institutions which will take effect on March 28.

The jumbo cut came after the central bank kept rates steady.

It also added that large banks may be negatively affected in terms of their NIMs with additional policy rate cuts but since the central bank held its rate cut in its recent policy meeting, banks can be expected to maintain high NIMs in the near term.

For Regina Capital’s Ms. Santos and BDO’s Ms. Chiw, it would be wise if the market will continue to monitor further BSP rate moves and impacts of inflation on loan quality and profit margins.

“NPL trends, capital adequacy, and fintech-driven cost efficiencies will be key, additionally peso-dollar volatility remains a risk,” Ms. Santos added.

Additionally, for Ms. Chiw, concerns right now are Trump policy uncertainties which are affecting financial markets with renewed interest rate and exchange rate volatility potentially hurting consumption and investment appetite.

“Risks of reaccelerating inflation and interest rates remaining high and restrictive, could also have knock-on effects to the ability of borrowers to repay their debts,” she said.

She cautioned that these risks may require banks to incur more loan loss provisions to buffer against the potential rise in loan delinquencies.

According to RCBC Securities, Inc., investors should keep an eye on the loan portfolio and growth, as well as whether NIMs continue to expand. “A potential 200-basis-point increase could positively impact loan growth and NIM,” RCBC noted.

Unicapital’s Ms. Estacio-Cruz remains optimistic about the banking sector’s prospects in 2025, anticipating that strong asset quality and improved loan growth will help offset the impact of rate cuts, thereby supporting RoE.

For Chinabank’s Mr. Fausto, the market will monitor changes to US policies and its potential impact on inflation and interest rates both locally and abroad.

“Additionally, full-year earnings reports of listed banks (including management teams’ guidance against the backdrop of the changing global and local macroeconomic landscape), prospective RRR cut and policy rate cuts from the BSP could serve as near-term catalysts,” he said.

WHAT TO CONSIDER IN 2025 AND OUTLOOK
For Mr. Fausto, outlook remains supportive for the central bank to implement further rate cuts which in turn could help support loan growth prospects.

Additionally, he said that banks that have built up comfortable coverage levels are expected to remain relatively resilient even as NIM compression may be relatively subdued.

“This comes as risks of a more tempered pace of loan growth could be partially offset by a more moderate decline in lending margins amid prospects of less policy rate cuts,” he said.

Ms. Estacio-Cruz said that NIMs are expected to remain stable as the downward repricing of loans should be partly offset by faster credit growth, driven by consumer loans.

“We see net interest margins stable for this year as banks manage to lower cost of funds while keeping asset yields steady,” Ms. Estacio-Cruz added.

Meanwhile, while these rate cuts may spur loan growth, rising inflation could put a strain to funding costs and repayment capacity, Ms. Santos of Regina Capital said.

She added that profit margins may tighten, but diversified banks, with strong liquidity and operational efficiency, will fare better.

“Loan growth may be modest, with margin pressures ongoing. Fee income from digital services should help offset declines. Big banks like BDO and BPI are expected to outperform due to scale, while UBP benefits from digital expansion,” she noted.

Charmaine Co, a research analyst at COL Financial Group, Inc., also projected continued loan growth momentum for banks, supported by favorable conditions such as monetary easing, stable economic growth, and subdued inflation.

“We also expect NIM to come under pressure from rate cuts. NIM compression may be on the modest side as the impact of rate cuts are moderated by balance sheet adjustments and tailwinds from the reduction in the banks’ reserve requirement ratio,” Ms. Co said in an e-mail.

For Maybank Securities, the rate cuts should put downward pressure on NIMs but the central bank’s RRR cut partially offset the potential impact on NIMs since an RRR cut is generally favorable for banks’ margins.

Additionally, they said that banks continue to expand their consumer loan portfolios, which typically have higher margins and yields compared to institutional loans.

“The banking sector is our top sector pick for the first half of 2025. With less rate cuts, we expect the banks to continue to enjoy high NIMs, high RoEs and strong profitability,” Maybank Securities said.

Moreover, Maybank Securities noted that with gross domestic product growth projected to be close to 6%, this could imply that industry loan growth to be around 10%-12% level.

Likewise, for RCBC Securities, banks will continue to perform strongly, backed by sustained double-digit loan growth due to the RRR cut.

For Ms. Chiw, inflation settling within the 2%-4% target of the central bank for the year will sustain further monetary policy easing.

“We believe there is room for two interest rate cuts, especially after the slower-than-expected 2.1% inflation print for February, which should help sustain loan demand,” she said.

However, she noted that the detrimental effect of rate cuts to profit margins, will be offset by favorable impact of RRR reductions in which banks can expect NIMs to remain stable.

“There will also be opportunities for banks to realize trading gains from their bond portfolios as interest rates shift lower,” she added.

In December, inflation accelerated to 2.9% which brought the full-year 2024 headline inflation to 3.2%, still settling within the BSP’s forecast.

Meanwhile, latest inflation data from the government’s statistics agency showed that in February, inflation eased to 2.1%, its slowest pace in five months or since the 1.9% posted in September 2024.

For the first two months of the year, inflation averaged 2.5%, still within the BSP target.

Transforming rare disease outcomes

March 10, 2025 | 12:01 am

autism-center-abstract-concept-illustration-learning-disability-center-treatment-autism-spectrum — FREEPIK

Reivi Dela Cruz was only four years old when he was diagnosed with Neurofibromatosis Type 1 (NF1), a genetic condition that causes tumors (neurofibromas, which are usually non-cancerous) to grow on or under the skin along the nerves. For years he has experienced stigma and discrimination due to misconceptions about his condition.

“But the real challenge isn’t just [lack of] awareness; it’s access to the right care, support, and treatment that so many of us still struggle to get,” said Mr. Dela Cruz, who spoke during a roundtable event entitled “More Than You Can Imagine: Collaboration to Transform Rare Disease Outcomes in the Philippines” on Feb. 28.

In observance of the Rare Disease Day, the Department of Health (DoH), the Philippine Society of Orphan Disorders (PSOD), the Philippine Alliance of Patients’ Organizations (PAPO), National Institute of Health (NIH), and AstraZeneca Philippines gathered patient advocates, the medical community, and other stakeholders. They are bound by their shared purpose of raising awareness and driving action for better care and support for Filipinos living with rare diseases.

NF1 is one of the over 7,000 known rare diseases impacting more than 300 million people globally, with 70% of these conditions starting in childhood. In the Philippines, an estimated 6,500 Filipinos live with rare diseases, although the actual number may be higher due to lack of diagnosis and awareness.

The definition of rare diseases, also known as orphan diseases, varies across countries. According to many international organizations, a condition is defined as “rare” when it affects fewer than 1 in 2,000 people. In the Philippines, the DoH, upon the recommendation of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), categorizes a disease or disorder as rare when it affects one in 20,000 individuals or less.

Symptoms of rare diseases vary greatly, making early detection challenging. These diseases are often chronic, progressive, and life-threatening, resulting in significant social, financial, and emotional burdens for patients and their families. Typically, it takes years to receive an accurate diagnosis, with many patients misdiagnosed, which prolongs suffering and complicates treatment options.

Treatment is another hurdle. While ongoing research and clinical trials — often spearheaded by innovative organizations and patient advocacy groups such as PSOD — hold promise, access remains limited. Only around 5% of rare diseases have FDA-approved therapies worldwide, leaving millions of patients without treatment options.

On top of these challenges, Filipino rare disease patients and their families confront daily logistical barriers, such as geographic isolation, care coordination difficulties, lack of transportation, and limited access to advanced technologies. Rare diseases also place a heavy emotional burden on families, with caregivers and loved ones facing overwhelming responsibilities to provide care and support.

Addressing rare diseases requires more than just medicines, and should include adapting healthcare systems, fostering education, and enhancing cooperation in the whole rare disease community to ensure improved outcomes, according to Lotis Ramin, President of AstraZeneca Philippines.

Janet Kochis, Program Officer for Patient Care and Family Support at PSOD, acknowledged the enactment of the Rare Diseases Act of the Philippines in 2016 as a milestone, noting that change happens when policies are fully implemented, treatments become accessible, and no patient is left behind.

Dr. Melanie Alcausin, Director of the Institute of Human Genetics at the NIH, called for a united effort from policymakers, healthcare professionals, advocates, and the community. She stressed that now is the time to actively push for stronger rare disease policies and to turn awareness into action and ensure that no patient is left behind.

Rare diseases pose a unique challenge to patients, their families, societies, healthcare professionals, and healthcare systems. They require “orphan drugs,” or drugs that are uniquely developed to target rare conditions. However, developing orphan drugs to treat rare diseases is a risky and complex undertaking for the innovative pharmaceutical industry since the number of rare diseases patients are small and widely dispersed. Because there are not enough clinical centers or sufficient expertise, biopharmaceutical companies seeking to develop treatments for rare diseases face major logistical and regulatory hurdles.

Despite these challenges, the biopharmaceutical industry has more than 700 medicines in development, targeting many known rare diseases. We consider rare diseases not in isolation but as a significant factor in health policy frameworks. We believe the needs of patients living with rare diseases are a public health priority. Hence, patients must be empowered by access to information, patient-reported outcome registries, and active participation in healthcare decisions. Finally, sustainable patient access to diagnostics, treatment, and care is vital.

Teodoro B. Padilla is the executive director of Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Association of the Philippines which represents the biopharmaceutical medicines and vaccines industry in the country. Its members are in the forefront of research and development efforts for COVID-19 and other diseases that affect Filipinos.

Debt yields inch up as Trump rattles markets

March 10, 2025 | 12:01 am

YIELDS on government securities (GS) ended mixed last week amid continued uncertainty over US President Donald J. Trump’s tariff policies.

GS yields, which move opposite to prices, went up by an average of 3.72 basis points (bps) week on week at the secondary market, based on the PHP Bloomberg Valuation Service Reference Rates as of March 7 published on the Philippine Dealing System’s website.

Rates at the short end of the curve were mixed. Yields on 91- and 182-day Treasury bills went down by 0.92 bp and 4.35 bps to 5.2702% and 5.5681%, respectively. Meanwhile, the 364-day debt inched up by 0.99 bp to fetch 5.7941%.

At the belly, yields rose across the board. Rates of the two-, three-, four-, five-, and seven-year Treasury bonds (T-bond) went up by 4.01 bps (to 5.8606%), 6.31 bps (to 5.9134%), 7.97 bps (to 5.9628%), 8.80 bps (to 6.0092%), and 9.89 bps (to 6.1025%), respectively.

Lastly, yields at the long end of the curve were mixed, with the 10-year T-bond rising by 8.52 bps to fetch 6.2097%, while the 20- and 25-year notes inched down by 0.15 bp (to 6.3459%), and 0.12 bp (to 6.3450%), respectively.

Total GS volume traded amounted to P27 billion last week, higher than the P24.79 billion recorded on Feb. 28.

GS yields mostly rose as concerns over the US’ trade policies and their impact on domestic inflation affected market sentiment, a bond trader said in a Viber message.

“The recent CPI (consumer price index) data was a welcome development, but not enough for the market to turn bullish on bonds just yet,” the trader said.

“Uncertainties dampened the mood locally as Trump tariffs continue to dominate the headlines. The tit-for-tat tariffs between the US, Mexico, Canada and China added some risk-off sentiment in the local market. Players opted to either stay on the sidelines or reduce holdings due to heightened volatility in global markets,” Dino Angelo C. Aquino, vice-president and head of fixed income at Security Bank Corp., likewise said in an e-mail.

GS yields were range-bound despite slower-than-expected February Philippine headline inflation as the market remained focused on external risks, Mr. Aquino said.

On Thursday, Mr. Trump suspended tariffs of 25% imposed on most goods from Canada and Mexico over the US fentanyl crisis, for 30 days, Reuters reported.

In a Fox Business Network interview aired earlier on Friday, Mr. Trump said he had granted the 30-day break for goods compliant with a regional free trade deal to help automakers. But he added that the reprieve was a short-term measure and tariffs could go up over time.

Mr. Trump said that on April 2, reciprocal tariffs would be implemented to equalize any duty rates between the three countries.

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro told CNBC that under the reciprocal tariff plan, the US will match both tariff rates of other countries and non-tariff barriers.

He added that those tariff adjustments would be made through industry-specific and country-specific investigations.

There are multiple other Trump tariff actions in play.

This Wednesday, Mr. Trump’s administration will effectively raise tariffs on steel and aluminum by rescinding longstanding exemptions for duties of 25% on steel and raising the rate to 25% for aluminum.

US stock indexes rose on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell said the US economy continues to be in a good place and it remains to be seen if the Trump administration’s tariff plans will prove to be inflationary, while US 10-year Treasury yields also turned higher.

The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note rose 3.8 bps to 4.32%. For the week, the 10-year yield was up about 9 bps, on track to snap a five-week streak of declines.

Meanwhile, Philippine inflation in February eased to 2.1% in February from 2.9% in January and 3.4% a year ago, the government reported last week, below the 2.2%-3% forecast from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

This was the slowest inflation print in five months or since the 1.9% clip in September 2024. The February CPI was also below the 2.6% median estimate in a BusinessWorld poll of 18 analysts.

Headline inflation averaged 2.5% in the first two months, well within the central bank’s 2-4% target.

For this week, GS yields may continue to move sideways as the market awaits clarity on the BSP’s policy easing path, the trader said.

“With the CPI surprising to the downside, an April cut is on the table. If inflation remains favorable next month and the peso’s strengthening continues, the BSP can reduce policy rates despite the external risks presented by the Trump tariffs,” Mr. Aquino said.

“Yields remain attractive at current levels and are hence biased to move lower once the BSP resumes its easing cycle.”

The Monetary Board will hold its next policy meeting on April 3.

The BSP unexpectedly kept rates steady last month after cutting rates by 25 bps for three straight meetings since it began its easing cycle in August 2024.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. has said the central bank is still in easing mode, signaling the possibility of up to 50 bps worth of cuts this year. — Matthew Miguel L. Castillo with Reuters

SMIC shares gain amid buyback plan, market trends

March 10, 2025 | 12:01 am

SM INVESTMENTS CORP. (SMIC) shares climbed last week as investors took interest in its P60-billion buyback plan and broader market trends.

Data from the Philippine Stock Exchange showed that the Sy-led company was the seventh most active stock of the week, with 1.37 million shares worth P1.11 billion changing hands from March 3 to 7.

The company’s shares closed at P821 on Friday, 7.3% higher than the P765 closing price on Feb. 28. However, the close was 8.7% lower than the P899 closing price on Dec. 27, 2024.

On February 28, SMIC approved a buyback program of approximately $1 billion to improve the stock’s future earnings per share. It is the first buyback program in the company’s history.

“In the current market, we trade well below our historical valuation multiples, which do not reflect the performance and future growth potential of the Group,” said Frederic C. DyBuncio, president and chief executive officer of SMIC, in a statement.

“We always aim to create and return value to our shareholders. This program intends to do so by authorizing the buyback of up to approximately 6% of our outstanding shares,” Mr. DyBuncio added.

Jash Matthew M. Baylon, an analyst at First Resources Management and Securities, said the company’s shares were trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.70x when the buyback was announced, significantly below its five-year historical average P/E of 24.70x.

“The P60-billion buyback program is attractive, especially during market uncertainties, as it shows that the company is confident in its stock and performance despite the economic downturn,” said Mr. Baylon in a Viber message.

Meanwhile, Luis A. Limlingan, head of sales at Regina Capital Development Corp., said that buying sentiment for SMIC grew stronger.

“While investors might be linking the recent buyback program declaration to its recent price-action movements, the impact of the program has yet to weigh on the market, as no buyback transactions have been executed so far,” Mr. Limlingan said in an e-mail interview.

Mr. Baylon also said the buyback program signaled SMIC’s optimism regarding the economic outlook for the year, despite the index’s recent volatility and the threat of a global trade war.

“On a positive note, easing inflation in February, which could lead to monetary policy easing and robust consumption, may drive the local economy, benefiting our local stock market.”

“Considering that this is SMIC’s first buyback program, the company may be focused on strengthening its position in a competitive environment and managing its capital structure while continuing to meet demand in the real estate, retail, and banking segments,” Mr. Limlingan said.

In another press release, the company said it earned P86.2 billion in consolidated income in 2024, 7% higher than its P77-billion report in 2023, reflecting growth across all sectors.

The largest portion of SMIC’s total net income came from its banking segment at 49%, with property contributing 26%, retail operations providing 18%, and portfolio investments accounting for the remaining 7%, the press release showed.

SMIC also expanded its operations, adding 619 retail stores, two malls, and 75 bank branches in 2024.

“If these moves are executed effectively, SM could see enhanced investor confidence and a stronger market position in the long term,” Mr. Limlingan said.

“We also see that different business segments, such as SM Prime Holdings, Inc. (SMPH), have allocated higher capital expenditures for 2025, which will be used for project development and expansion,” said Mr. Baylon.

On February 24, SMPH announced in a press release that it will invest P100 billion in 2025, following “sustained growth in consumer demand and corporate activity.”

“We expect election-related spending, easing interest rates, and higher tourism spending to fuel our growth in 2025,” said SM Prime President Jeffrey C. Lim.

The parent company of SMPH is SMIC.

For the January-September period, SMIC’s revenues rose by 5% to P462.46 billion from P440.38 billion last year. Likewise, the company’s net income grew by 9% to P60.89 billion from P55.89 billion during the same period last year.

“We project that SM will grow around 9–10% to P90.2 billion in 2025, as robust spending — driven by manageable inflation, election-related expenditures, and a monetary policy easing cycle — may boost growth across its business segments,” said Mr. Baylon.

Mr. Limlingan pegged support for the stock at P810 and resistance at P830. Meanwhile, Mr. Baylon set support at P800 and resistance at P850. — Pierce Oel A. Montalvo

Style (03/10/25)

March 10, 2025 | 12:01 am

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How to dress mannequins, lecture at The M

AS PART of its M Conversations series of talks, The Metropolitan Museum of Manila in BGC will be holding “Shaping the Dress Form: Dressing Mannequins for Fashion Exhibitions.” The talk will be held on March 15, from 1:30 to 4 p.m. Get a firsthand look at how the team of dressers showcased the gowns of the couturier Jose “Pitoy” Moreno for their latest exhibit, Timeless: J. Moreno. Head dresser, Joseph Bawar, will share his behind-the-scenes experiences and insights into the preparation of this collection. Jaime “Jimmy” Cruz (a nephew and apprentice of the late Pitoy Moreno) will hold a live demonstration of the techniques the dressing team used to sculpt and bring the mannequins to life. For tickets, visit https://metmuseum.helixpay.ph/.

Nuxe Super Serum hits 10 (points)

IN 2021, Nuxe unveiled the Super Serum [10]. One bottle is sold every minute and has been selected for 13 prestigious awards in France and internationally. Harnessing the power of clean, vegan skincare, Super Serum [10] features cutting-edge, 100% natural, silicone-free microfluidic encapsulation of Fractionated Botanical Oils. Over 3,800 microspheres are infused into a formula enriched with natural hyaluronic acid and niacinamide. Its dual-phase texture blends a refreshing gel with silky micro-spheres that melt over the skin. As the spheres dissolve, their subtle botanical scent intensifies. Super Serum [10] is said to deliver 10 skincare benefits: it smooths wrinkles and fine lines by 17%; it firms the skin, with 81% of users noticing a lifted effect; it plumps up the skin for a fuller, more supple appearance for 91% of users; it evens out skin tone, reducing dark spots by 12%; it enhances radiance, with 89% of users noticing a new glow; it tightens pores, as 79% reported refined skin texture; it deeply hydrates, boosting moisture levels by 78%; it strengthens the skin barrier, nourishing 91% of users’ skin; it aids in skin repair, with 82% experiencing a repairing effect; and it shields against environmental aggressors, with 78% of users noting added protection. These results come from voluntary usage tests, with improvement evaluated by volunteers after 28 days of use. Nuxe Super Serum [10] is available in a 30ml pipette bottle for P5,750, while NUXE Super Serum [10] Eye comes in a 15ml pipette bottle for P3,450. It can be found at Rustan’s (Makati, Shangri-La Plaza, Alabang, Cebu); LOOK (SM Mall of Asia, SM Aura); Mitsukoshi Beauty; select Beauty Bar stores; Rustans.com, Lazada, Shopee, and Zalora.

Fendi, Red Wing collaborate on boots

THIS SEASON, Fendi and American footwear company Red Wing explore complementary values as well as aesthetic contrasts just as Fendi celebrates its centenary and Red Wing reaches its 120^th anniversary. Fendi’s color palette of sienna red and natural beige, together with the supple Cuoio Romano leather and Selleria hand stitching are applied to Red Wing’s Classic Moc boot silhouette that has been a mainstay of the brand since 1952. With every pair involving the work of more than 30 artisans and 80 steps, the Fendi Red Wing boots are a testament to their enduring family spirit, heritage, and the stories woven into every stitch and seam.

Keds launches BlissWalk collection

KEDS is redefining everyday footwear with the launch of its BlissWalk collection — a fusion of modern comfort and timeless style. Designed for women on the go, this innovative collection delivers all-day ease with a contemporary touch, making every step effortlessly comfortable. Featuring BlissFoam Tech™ footbeds, the BlissWalk collection provides instant step-in comfort with plush cushioning and antimicrobial properties to keep feet fresh. The collection includes slip-on, lace-up, and skimmer silhouettes, ensuring a versatile lineup that suits any occasion. With breathable engineered knit uppers, lightweight EVA outsoles, and extra padding at key touchpoints, every pair is crafted for ease of movement and long-lasting wear. Each pair features machine-washable convenience — simply remove the BlissFoam Tech™ footbeds, toss the shoes in the wash on a gentle cycle, and let them air dry for a fresh, like-new feel. The Keds BlissWalk Collection is now available in Keds retail stores and online at www.keds.com.ph.

India allows exports of broken rice to cut stockpiles

March 10, 2025 | 12:01 am

MUMBAI — India allowed the export of 100% broken rice, the government said in a notification late on Friday, after inventories reached a record high at the start of February, nearly nine times the government’s target.

Exports of 100% broken rice could help reduce stocks in the world’s biggest exporter and enable poor African countries to secure the grain at lower prices, as well as support Asian animal feed and ethanol producers that rely on the grade.

India had banned exports of 100% broken rice in September 2022 and then imposed curbs on exports of all other rice grades in 2023 after poor rainfall raised concerns over production.

However, as the supply situation improved after the country harvested a record crop, New Delhi removed curbs on exports of all grades except 100% broken rice.

“Now that broken rice exports are allowed, we anticipate exporting around 2 million tons of this grade in 2025,” said B.V. Krishna Rao, president of the Rice Exporters’ Association.

India exported 3.9 million metric tons of broken rice in 2022, mainly to China for animal feed and to African countries such as Senegal and Djibouti for human consumption.

Broken rice is a byproduct of milling, and African countries prefer this grade because it is cheaper than other grades.

Indian broken rice is currently offered at $330 per metric ton, compared to approximately $300 from rival suppliers like Vietnam, Myanmar, and Pakistan, said Himanshu Agrawal, executive director at Satyam Balajee, a leading rice exporter.

“However, these competing countries have limited stocks. As their stocks deplete, buyers will switch to India, and exports will pick up in coming months.”

State granary reserves of rice, including unmilled paddy, totalled 67.6 million tons as of Feb. 1, compared to the government’s target of 7.6 million tons, data compiled by the Food Corp. of India showed. — Reuters

Premium dry gin featured at Ferrari 12Cilindri launch

March 10, 2025 | 12:01 am

VELO_PAGE2_image8 — Enjoying Rosso 12 cocktails are (from left) Ginebra San Miguel, Inc. (GSMI) New Product Development Manager Vera Bautista, gin enthusiast and host Paolo Abrera, and GSMI New Product Development Assistant Ranzel Poblete. — PHOTO FROM GINEBRA SAN MIGUEL

ARCHANGEL RESERVE Premium Dry Gin was served at the recent launch of the Ferrari 12Cilindri in the Philippines. Held at the Velocità Motors, Inc. showroom in San Juan City, guests were treated to an exclusive experience, witnessing the unveiling of the Ferrari 12Cilindri while enjoying the refined taste of Archangel Reserve in two specially crafted cocktails, the Classic Gin & Tonic and the signature Rosso 12. Made with Campari and pomegranate, the best-seller signature cocktail Rosso 12 is inspired by Ferrari’s signature red and powerful V12 engine. Archangel Reserve is a 90-proof premium dry gin bottled in an iconic emerald green one-liter frasco bottle commemorating Ginebra San Miguel’s 190-year heritage. This “premium masterpiece” is made from a select combination of fine botanicals.

Asset and loan growth of Philippines’ biggest banks in Q4

March 10, 2025 | 12:00 am

THE AGGREGATE ASSETS of the Philippines’ largest banks grew by single digits in the fourth quarter of 2024, reflecting slowing economic growth and still-elevated interest rates. Read the full story.

How PSEi member stocks performed — March 7, 2025

March 10, 2025 | 12:00 am

Here’s a quick glance at how PSEi stocks fared on Friday, March 7, 2025.