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Philippine COVID surge outside capital, says OCTA

A HEALTH worker talks to a patient at a COVID-19 field hospital at the Quirino Grandstand in Manila in this Jan. 13 photo. — PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS

By Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza, Reporter

CORONAVIRUS infections in the Philippines are not about to peak “any time soon” because the surge was now being felt in regions outside Metro Manila, according to researchers from the country’s premier university.

“The surge is no longer just in the National Capital Region Plus,” Fredegusto P. David, a fellow from the OCTA Research Group of the University of the Philippines, told ABS-CBN TeleRadyo on Sunday in mixed English and Filipino. “It’s now all over the Philippines. It would not peak in the entire country even if we say that cases have peaked in the region.”

He said the daily growth rate in Metro Manila dropped to 2% on Jan. 15 from 3% a day earlier. He said it was possible that the region had reached its peak and infections were decreasing. But it could also mean that testing volume was insufficient.

“The trend of new cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) is close to peak, or new cases in NCR are limited by testing capacity,” he said in a report posted on Twitter.

Mr. David said if cases in the capital region start falling this week, the drop in the growth rate was probably caused by the peak.

“In the second case, we will see the number of new cases continue to hover around the same level, until the downward trend happens.”

The government should continue to improve access to coronavirus tests to encourage Filipinos to get tested, said Joey Francis Hernandez, treasurer of the Philippine Society of Public Health Physicians.

“Restrictions on mobility and opportunities for crowding might be warranted considering the surge in cases,” he said in a Facebook Messenger chat. “However, these are short-term and won’t hold. The call for streamlined contact-tracing is still there.”

The Philippines posted 37,154 coronavirus infections on Sunday, bringing the total to 3.21 million.

The death toll increased by 50 to 52,907, while recoveries rose by 30,037 to 2.86 million, the Department of Health (DoH) said in a bulletin.

It said 47.4% of 81,381 samples on Jan. 14 tested positive for the coronavirus, way above the 5% threshold set by the World Health Organization (WHO).

There were 287,856 active cases, 9,212 of which did not show symptoms, 273,924 were mild, 2,940 were moderate, 1,475 were severe and 305 were critical.

DoH said 98% of the latest cases occurred from Jan. 3 to Jan. 16. The top regions with new cases in the past two weeks were Metro Manila with 15,591, Calabarzon with 8,384 and Central Luzon with 3,232 infections.

It added that 60% of deaths occurred in January, 2% each in November and October and 24% in September.

The agency said 137 duplicates had been removed from the tally, 85 of which were reclassified as recoveries and one was tagged as a death. Twenty-seven recoveries were relisted as deaths. Twelve laboratories failed to submit data on Jan. 14.

The Health department said 49% of intensive care unit beds in the country had been used, while the rate for Metro Manila was 57%.

The government has banned unvaccinated people from using public transportation in Metro Manila. Critics including the Commission on Human Rights have said the ban violates basic human rights.

“We are still experiencing spikes, and these will still happen in the future if we do not halt opportunities for disease transmission,” Mr. Hernandez said.

He said the government should improve the welfare of health workers, noting that some hospitals were on an “emergency hiring.”

“Proper compensation and nonmonetary incentives should be in place to attract healthcare workers and ensure they are treated fairly,” he said. “There should also be support for those employed in the private sector, as well as engagement of employers to give what is due them.”

“There might be little opportunity to mitigate these longstanding issues now, but definitely we can start doing the right thing now,” he added.

Transport marshals amid ban ‘overkill’ — congresswoman

PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS

THE USE of transport marshals amid a ban on unvaccinated people in public transportation that starts on Monday is overkill, a lawmaker said on Sunday.

The government should instead provide separate public transport for the unvaccinated, Party-list Rep. Bernadette R. Herrera-Dy said in a statement.

“The Department of Transportation must stop its deployment of ‘mystery passengers’ lest it stirs up martial law ‘secret marshal’ fears,” she said. “That would be overkill.”

The lawmaker said quarantine measures should be clarified and excessive measures avoided.

“Unvaccinated Filipinos are taxpayers too and they pay for all the public transport systems. They have every right of access,” she added.

The government would deploy the marshals to monitor compliance with its no vaccination, no ride policy in public transportation starting Jan. 17, the Transportation department said last week.

“That’s how we can implement this program on a daily basis without them knowing really that there’s an enforcer,” Transportation Assistant Secretary Mark Steven C. Pastor told an online news briefing on Friday.

Transportation Secretary Arthur P. Tugade on Jan. 11 issued an order limiting public transportation access to vaccinated people in the National Capital Region (NCR) under Alert Level 3 or higher.

The policy applies to all public domestic travel within Metro Manila by land, sea and air. The marshals would pay for their own fare.

The policy does not apply to people who have not been vaccinated against the coronavirus for medical reasons.

Passengers must show physical or digital copies of their vaccine cards issued by their local governments or by the Department of Health. 

Drivers and operators who fail to enforce the ban face fines of P1,000 to P10,000. They may also get suspended or their franchise revoked.

The agency can’t penalize the unvaccinated for boarding public transportation since these are outside their jurisdiction, officials said.

Violators can be punished under city ordinances that bar them from going out and other laws.

About 30% of Metro Manila’s more than 13 million residents are unvaccinated, according to the Interior and Local Government department.

The agency has ordered village officials to submit a list of unvaccinated residents, in line with President Rodrigo R. Duterte’s order for them to stay home amid a fresh surge in infections spurred by the highly mutated Omicron variant.

Cabinet Secretary Karlo Alexei B. Nograles at the weekend said the government should intensify house-to-house vaccination.

He said the success of the country’s vaccination drive depends on the coordination among the central and local governments and the public.

He said not all Filipinos have access to vaccination centers, particularly the elderly and the sick. — JEGT

Unvaccinated banned from flights to and from Metro Manila

PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS

TRAVELERS who are not fully vaccinated against coronavirus will not be allowed to board flights to and from Metro Manila starting Jan. 17, the Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines (CAAP) announced Sunday. 

The policy is in line with the Transportation department’s order issued last week banning unvaccinated individuals from public transport services. 

It “will be applied to all individuals entering CAAP-operated facilities and to domestic passengers traveling to and from the National Capital Region (NCR) via any domestic or foreign air operator,” the agency said in a statement.

CAAP operates most airports nationwide except the Mactan-Cebu International Airport.

The rule will be in effect until NCR is under Alert Level 3 or higher.

Full vaccination is defined as two weeks after receiving the 2nd jab for a two-dose vaccine or a single-dose brand.

“In a time as sensitive as a pandemic, prioritizing safety is a must. CAAP believes that the DoTr’s ‘No Vaccination, No Ride’ policy will reinforce the importance of ensuring that public spaces such as airport terminals and aircraft remain as safe spaces for everyone that utilizes them,” CAAP Director General Captain Jim C. Sydiongco said. — Marifi S. Jara 

UN says typhoon Rai damage ‘comparable’ to super typhoon Haiyan

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DAMAGE to livelihood and infrastructure caused by typhoon Rai, locally known as Odette, is similar to the destruction left by super typhoon Haiyan or Yolanda in 2013, according to a United Nations (UN) agency’s assessment a month after the calamity. 

“(T)he sheer extent of the typhoon’s destruction is now all too clear. It damaged infrastructure and livelihoods on a comparable scale to Typhoon Haiyan,”  UN Resident Coordinator Gustavo Gonzalez said in a statement on Sunday.

At the same time, Mr. Gonzalez noted preparedness measures undertaken such as preemptive evacuation that “saved countless lives.” 

At least 406 people were reported to have died and 65 others still missing in the aftermath of Odette, based on the Jan. 16 update from the Philippine national disaster management council. In comparison, about 6,300 people died during Haiyan.

However, the UN official underscored that survivors of Odette, described as the second deadliest disaster to hit the globe in 2021, continue to struggle amid ongoing relief and recovery operations. 

“Typhoon Rai pummeled 11 regions of the Philippines… forcing 2.7 million people from their homes, damaging almost 1.4 million houses, and affecting 514 towns and cities, 100 of which still have power outages or no power at all,” he said as he appealed for sustained assistance.

“We need to urgently scale up support to put people on a path to rapid recovery and reconstruction. If we do not, their resilience will be compromised,” said the UN humanitarian coordinator in the Philippines. 

The humanitarian community launched on Dec. 24 a six-month response plan that would need a $107.2-million fund.

“One month on, this response is just 39 per cent funded… On behalf of the UN and the Humanitarian Country Team, I call on everyone to support this Humanitarian Needs and Priorities Plan to complement ongoing national efforts and bring help and hope to the people of the Philippines,” Mr. Gonzalez said. 

The Philippine government, private companies and other local entities have so far delivered almost P700 million in relief goods, according to latest data from the disaster management agency. The national government has also released P4.8 billion for cash assistance.  

Mr. Gonzalez said the fresh surge in coronavirus cases in the country has also posed mobility and supply chain constraints, among other challenges. — Marifi S. Jara 

Residents blame laterite mining for discolored Davao Oriental river as DENR probes incident

BEFORE and after photos of a segment of the Mapagba River in Barangay Maputi, Banaybanay. — EMELYN Q. MORILLO

THE DAVAO regional office of the Environment department has started investigating a heavy siltation and discoloration incident of a river in Davao Oriental province.

Photos posted by several residents online on Jan. 14 showed the Mapagba River in the town of Banaybanay turning red-orange in color following heavy rains. 

The discolored water flowed all the way out into coastal areas as the Mapagba River drains into the Davao Gulf.

The Department of Environment and Natural Resources-Davao (DENR-Davao), in a statement issued late Friday evening, said it “immediately created an investigating team that will be deployed in the area tomorrow (January 15)” to evaluate the cause of the incident.

“The large volume of water allegedly may have resulted in such siltation that caused discoloration of the said river,” DENR-Davao said, noting 111 millimeters of rain was recorded within a 12-hour period from Jan. 13 to 14.

Davao Oriental resident Rudolph Dela Cruz Espe, an advocate against mining activities in Banaybanay, said this is the first time they have seen a discoloration of the river.

“There is no other reason for this except the present laterite mining activity in Puntalinao/Pintatagan mountainous area. I lived here since birth and I can attest that we never experienced such discoloration of rivers before. Obviously because of the ongoing laterite extraction ongoing in the area,” he said in a text message.

Other online reports indicate that river discoloration was also seen in Barangay Pintatagan.

The provincial board passed a resolution in July 2021, numbered 16-754-01-2021, “interposing no objection” on a permit for mining operation covering the barangays of Puntalinao, Causwagan, Pintatagan, Maputi, Panikian and Mahayag in Banaybanay. 

In March 2019, the Davao Oriental local government expressed opposition to the declaration of another area in the province as a mineral reservation site. 

Gov. Nelson L. Dayanghirang said then that the proposed mining area is “in close proximity to Davao Oriental’s crown jewel, the Mount Hamiguitan Range Wildlife Sanctuary,” which is Mindanao’s first and only declared UNESCO World Heritage Site. 

The proposed mineral reservation area, according to the Mines and Geosciences Bureau, covers around 8,497 hectares with rich deposits of chromite, nickel laterite, and copper.

Mr. Dayanghirang said while mining would provide an economic boost to the province, the cost on the environment and communities in the surrounding areas is far greater. The mayor said the provincial government is working on bringing in more investments in other sectors such as agriculture and tourism, which would provide a more sustainable development. — Maya M. Padillo

House rep says media protection bill advancing in Senate

ONE of the principal authors of a proposed law that seeks to provide media workers more protection and benefits is optimistic that the bill will be passed by the Senate before Congress goes on recess from Feb. 5 to May 22 for the May elections.

Rep. Rowena Niña O. Taduran, who authored the proposed Media Workers Welfare Act, said the House of Representatives is currently discussing the bill with the Senate labor committee chaired by Senator Emmanuel Joel Villanueva for any adjustments in the bill.

“As of this time, Sen. Villanueva and his committee promised to bring the Senate version of the bill in the plenary for further deliberation and committed to pass it before the election campaign begins,” Ms. Taduran told BusinessWorld in an email. 

“We are in constant communication with the Senate to ensure the passage of the bill,” said the representative of the Anti-Crime and Terrorism Community Involvement and Support (ACT-CIS) party-list.

“This law is way overdue. Our media workers have been overworked and underappreciated. Especially during election period, which is a very dangerous time to be out in the field,” 1-PACMAN Rep. Enrico A. Pineda, who co-authored the bill, said on Viber. 

The bill aims to give media workers more benefits, including job security, provision of protective equipment and hazard pay when covering dangerous zones or events, and insurance coverage in case of death or disability. 

Under the bill, the Department of Labor and Employment will create a News Media Tripartite Council for settling conflicts and crafting mutually beneficial policies. — Jaspearl Emerald G. Tan

BBM’s eligibility, the rule of law and economic catch-up

FREEPIK

The long-term prosperity of the nation — in our case the capacity to catch up with countries at the frontiers of progress — depends in no uncertain terms on its capacity to institute pro-value creation rules and to uphold those rules. The message of the 2012 best seller Why Nations Fail by Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson was that countries that fail to protect property rights and enforce contracts — the precis of the rule-of-law — are bound to fail. In the modern world, it is the courts of law that either uphold or rubbish the rule of law.

At the dawn of Prussia’s catch-up with the industrial leader, Great Britain, the lore goes (T. Kugler version, 1856) that Emperor Frederick the Great could not sleep from the clatter of a grain mill which predated his Sanssouci Palace and demanded that the mill be sold to him. Gravenitz, the miller, refused. “Does he not know that I can take the mill from him… without paying a single groschen?” the emperor asked. Whereupon the miller replied, “Of course… if… it were not for the Supreme Court in Berlin.” The reply, it was said, so surprised and impressed the emperor — who himself was instrumental in the court’s founding — he inscribed it as a header on the palace gate. A piece of lore it may have been but one that fired the warning shot to frontrunners: Prussia had discovered the magic formula, one which China under Deng also discovered, and A. Smith preached in the Wealth of Nations — give comfort to market agents that the pro-value creation rules will be enforced and they will produce. Prussia had institutionalized what Machiavelli in The Prince (1532) had identified as a touchstone for state progress and power: “What’s more, he (The Prince) should reassure his subjects that they can go calmly about their business as merchants or farmers, or whatever other trade they practice, without worrying that if they increase their wealth they’ll be in danger of having it taken away from them, or that if they startup a business they’ll be punitively taxed.”

Property rights of Prussian citizens will now be sacred even against the whims of emperors. You can wager your capital to build a windmill or a water system and the profits are yours to keep; if the political powers think otherwise, they have to prove their case in court. And if the penalty for a transgression meted by proper courts is perpetual forfeiture of a right, this right will be denied you in perpetuity, whosoever you are.

The Philippines has law courts that swear by “due process” among the cornerstones of the rule-of-law. But in the byzantine world of the Philippine courts, different, even zombie, variants of “due process” can masquerade as rule-of-law and spew out decisions that outrage common sense. Thus, it outrages common sense that ex-National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Director Romulo Neri was the one convicted in the NBN-ZTE case and perpetually disqualified from holding any public office while his principals and the promoters of the scam are walking unblemished and even holding public office. It violates common sense that “Kerwin” Espinosa and associates are basking in legal innocence despite all common-sensical indications to the contrary. It violates common sense that only minor functionaries are convicted in the PDAF scam while their principals are free and holding public office. In such instances, the court system is as much convicted as convicting.

In the Bong Bong Marcos (BBM) eligibility case, it is clear that BBM was convicted of tax evasion in 1995 by the regional trial court for failure to file his income tax returns in 1982-1985 while he was vice-governor and then governor of Ilocos Norte. This conviction was affirmed by the court of appeals although it also removed the imprisonment penalty. No one disputes that he was a public officer as vice-governor and governor from 1982-85. BBM appealed the decision to the Supreme Court but subsequently withdrew the appeal, making the conviction by the lower courts final and executory. These are known facts of the case.

Now, for all violations of the National Internal Revenue Code (NIRC), Section 286 of PD 1994, the Code that was violated, says: “Any person convicted of a crime penalized by this code shall in addition to being liable for the payment of the tax, shall be liable for the penalties imposed herein… if he is a public officer or employee, the maximum penalty prescribed for the offense shall be imposed and, in addition, he shall be dismissed from the public service and perpetually disqualified from holding any public office, to vote and to participate in any election.” Perpetual disqualification as an accessory penalty for conviction for crimes penalized by the PD 1994 applies to all public officers, whether or not moral turpitude is involved and whether or not the convicted paid the imposed penalty.

By PD 1994, Section 286, the law applying at that time of the tax evasion and by the uncontested facts of the case alone, rule of law demands that BBM is “perpetually disqualified from holding any public office, voting or participating in any election.” Legal snares will be hoisted by legal eagles to confuse and suggest otherwise. But BBM’s eligibility can be legalized only by a subversion of the rule-of-law. Other considerations such as the certificates of candidacy misrepresentation, moral turpitude, or non-payment of fines may be made to additionally bear but their necessity is secondary.

Due process is one of the cornerstones of the rule-of-law, but it is its diseased variant, the “dupe process” as it were, that in the Philippines repeatedly delivers the rule of men in the guise of the rule-of-law. Is it even conceivable that Commission on Elections and/or the Supreme Court will in this case uphold the rule-of-law? That will be a massive surprise and a welcome one as rare as such a courageous upholding of the rule-of-law which will signal a national rebirth. It will reverse somewhat what the newly departed National Artist and Ramon Magsaysay Awardee, F. Sionil Jose, identifies as one of the maladies that keep us shackled as a nation: “This is what ails us all — we do not ostracize them, we do not punish them — no we anoint these vermin instead.”

If they don’t, we continue our commerce with vermin and once more the prosperity of the Filipino is the casualty. The stakes cannot be higher.

 

Raul V. Fabella is an honorary professor of the Asian Institute of Management (AIM), a member of the National Academy of Science and Technology (NAST) and a retired professor of the University of the Philippines. He gets his dopamine fix from hitting tennis balls with wife Teena and bicycling.

Beyoncé for President: Popularity is not a free pass to the Presidency

PCH.VECTOR-FREEPIK

There are statements making social media rounds that view the qualifications of Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. — his eligibility to run for President — as a political question. The argument goes that a political question cannot be decided by the Commission on Elections, and ultimately by the Supreme Court. This is incorrect.

These statements also promote the view that a candidate (Marcos) who is leading in election surveys cannot be disqualified, ostensibly, because the people will be deprived of their choice for President. This is also incorrect.

Both views are supposedly grounded on the “political question doctrine.”

Political questions are those questions which, under the Constitution, are to be decided by the people in their sovereign capacity or in regard to which full discretionary authority has been delegated to the legislative or [to the] executive branch of the government (Mamba v. Lara, G.R. No. 165109, Dec. 14, 2009). These are questions that are left for the people themselves to decide or which are to be decided by the other branches of government.

Political questions are concerned with issues dependent upon the wisdom, not legality of a particular measure (Estrada v. Desierto, G.R. Nos. 146710-15 & 146738, March 2, 2001).

Where the controversy refers to the legality or validity of the contested act, that matter is definitely justiciable or non-political (Sanidad v. Commission on Elections, G.R. Nos. L-44640, L-44684 & L-44714, Oct. 12, 1976).

There is no Supreme Court decision saying that a candidate’s eligibility for public office is a political question.

An issue is not a political question simply because votes are cast by the electorate. In Miranda v. Aguirre (G.R. No. 133064, Sept. 16, 1999), the Supreme Court held that a plebiscite to approve Republic Act No. 8528 (downgrading the City of Santiago from an independent component city to a component city) is not a political question. The issue in that case was whether Republic Act No. 8528 complied with the requirements of the Constitution which is a question that the Supreme Court alone can decide.

A basic rule in political law is that a candidate for public office should have all the qualifications and none of the disqualifications for office.

A person who garners the highest number of votes in an election, if disqualified under election laws, cannot be declared the winner. The Supreme Court has been very clear on this.

In Maquiling v. Commission on Elections (G.R. No. 195649, April 16, 2013), the Supreme Court held:

The ballot cannot override the constitutional and statutory requirements for qualifications and disqualifications of candidates. When the law requires certain qualifications to be possessed or that certain disqualifications be not possessed by persons desiring to serve as elective public officials, those qualifications must be met before one even becomes a candidate. When a person who is not qualified is voted for and eventually garners the highest number of votes, even the will of the electorate expressed through the ballot cannot cure the defect in the qualifications of the candidate. To rule otherwise is to trample upon and rent asunder the very law that sets forth the qualifications and disqualifications of candidates. We might as well write off our election laws if the voice of the electorate is the sole determinant of who should be proclaimed worthy to occupy elective positions in our republic.

Then in Halili v. Commission on Elections (G.R. Nos. 231643 & 231657, Jan. 15, 2019) the Court held that:

Where a material COC (certificate of candidacy) misrepresentation under oath is made, thereby violating both our election and criminal laws, we are faced as well with an assault on the will of the people of the Philippines as expressed in our laws. In a choice between provisions on material qualifications of elected officials, on the one hand, and the will of the electorate in any given locality, on the other, we believe and so hold that we cannot choose the will of the electorate.

Maquiling also emphasized that the qualifications prescribed for elective office cannot be erased by the electorate alone. The danger of allowing the election results to erase election laws was spelled out in the same case:

What will stop an otherwise disqualified individual from filing a seemingly valid COC, concealing any disqualification, and employing every strategy to delay any disqualification case filed against him so he can submit himself to the electorate and win, if winning the election will guarantee a disregard of constitutional and statutory provisions on qualifications and disqualifications of candidates?

If this is the rule — if a candidate who garners the highest number of votes can be disqualified — it should also apply to a person whose claim to the popular mandate has not been tested in an election.

The idea that popularity in an election survey converts a legal issue into a political question is preposterous. If we adopt this view, Beyoncé can run for President of the Philippines because her popularity will trump the requirement that the President should be a natural-born citizen of the Philippines. Or American actress and singer Zendaya no longer has to meet citizenship, age, or residency requirements of the Constitution (Article VII, section 2 of the Constitution).

The pending disqualification cases against Mr. Marcos should be resolved by examining the allegations against him, and by determining with impartial minds, whether Mr. Marcos has all the qualifications and none of the disqualifications for holding public office. The popularity of a candidate, however measured, should never be a factor in settling these disputes.

 

Dante Gatmaytan is professor at the University of the Philippines, College of Law and a fellow of Action for Economic Reforms.

The Matrix: How conspiracy theorists hijacked the ‘red pill’ philosophy

The Matrix is among the most influential science fiction films of all time. Nearly 20 years since the third film in the series premiered, a fourth chapter, The Matrix Resurrections, was released in December to great excitement.

But one of The Matrix’s most enduring cultural contributions has been to conspiracy theories. Motifs from the film have been adopted by online groups to reinforce their messages, which are often hateful and violent. Incels, or involuntary celibates, are particularly engaged with Matrix-style “philosophy.” A mass shooter in the UK, for example, was found, after his death, to have been using Matrix imagery in online discussion forums before committing his crimes.

The problem is so widespread that the new Matrix film is being taken by some as a rejection of the trend. Ahead of the film’s release, two of its writers described themselves as approaching the movie with the intent of reclaiming the “red pill” trope from its hijackers.

The idea of the red pill is a key example. In the original Matrix, the protagonist is invited to choose between a red and blue pill. The red reveals the world for what it truly is; an artificial construct of machines which have enslaved humanity. The blue allows the protagonist to remain in a comfortable delusion; spared from facing the horrors beyond. This cultural motif is now a cornerstone of conspiratorial thinking.

Red pill conspiracy theories follow the same basic logic. A nefarious enemy is working behind the scenes, having concealed their harmful activities from the population. By “taking the red pill” believers “wake up” to this truth.

It is perhaps ironic that in the film the red pill reveals reality for what it truly is while in conspiracy theories it allows adherents to construct their own reality — one which tends to reinforce and rationalize their own preconceptions.

To demonstrate, take the online “manosphere,” a loosely affiliated network of misogynistic groups united by a shared red pill conspiracy theory. They see feminism as having corrupted socio-political institutions and established a society structured to the advantage of women and the detriment of men. Feminism, or the myth of female oppression in their eyes, is a means to trick men into accepting exploitation and ceding ever more power. In “taking the red pill” manosphere adherents believe they are awake to this inequitable world order. They see themselves as a resistance movement against it.

The danger of red pill narratives is the type of thinking it imparts. Within these narratives “truth” is presupposed rather than tested. Facts must conform to this truth to be legitimate, and all contrary evidence is dismissed. Inevitably such communities become insular, seeing the outside world as brainwashed and themselves as uniquely virtuous for having the strength of character to face reality.

Red pill narratives naturally encourage echo chambers, which are an ideal environment for radicalization. Shared narratives can quickly diverge from reality when left unchallenged. Eventually the positions and beliefs of the community only make sense in the worlds which adherents have constructed for themselves.

There are many other examples beyond incel culture, and they should strike a foreboding chord. In worlds corrupted by unseen forces, radical action is easily justified. Conspiracy theories paved the way for last year’s attack on the US Capitol, and continue to inflame tensions a year on. The idea of being duped by the mainstream is evident in much anti-vax thinking. In the often-competing worlds of conspiracy theorists, drinking urine or injecting bleach are variously presented as the real cures for COVID-19 rather than the vaccines developed by governments in a bid to control their populations.

But is The Matrix to blame for modern conspiratorial thinking? No. Narratives of malevolent hands pulling strings behind the scenes are far older, and deeply tied to antisemitism. In early-1900s conspiracy theories, which would later fuel the rise of Nazism, it was claimed a cabal of Jewish elders were infiltrating and corrupting social institutions in a plot for global dominion. Central to Nazi ideology was the theory of “Jewish-Bolshevism,” which held Jews invented communism as a means of world conquest. Hitler even believed the British people would become his staunch allies if only they destroyed the “Judaic forces” controlling them. Echoes of contemporary red pill narratives underpinned all these beliefs; for this type of thinking long predates the specific motif.

It would be more accurate to say The Matrix has popularized a superficially similar metaphor. It simplified, if not standardized, the way in which these theories could be communicated to modern audiences. These days, conspiracy theorists can simply point to The Matrix as a framework rather than explain their worldview in their own words. The red pill is essentially a way of saying “it’s just like The Matrix,” but the real enemy is [x]. This is of course an unintended consequence. But after 20 years, the genie is probably not going back in the bottle.

 

Charlie Tye is a PHD candidate, York Law School, University of York. He receives funding from the Morrell Centre for Legal and Political Philosophy.

Could Putin de-escalate even if he wanted to?

AS I WRITE THESE LINES, talks between Moscow and the West appear to have stalled, and the world waits with bated breath whether Russian President Vladimir Putin will order the 100,000 troops he’s massed near Ukraine to attack that country. In this moment of peril, it’s worth dusting off three old concepts in international-relations theory to take stock of the strategic situation.

One concept is called “escalation dominance.” It was coined during the Cold War by a think-tanker named Herman Kahn, who inspired the title character in the black comedy Dr. Strangelove. The idea is that in any conflict, the side that’s in a better position to raise the stakes — because it knows it would win, could bear the costs more easily, or wants something more intensely — has a strategic advantage. Its adversary will come under ever greater pressure to pull out and settle.

Putin has so far clearly enjoyed escalation dominance in the conflicts over Ukraine and the wider region. He’s made clear that this former Soviet Republic — which he doesn’t consider a proper nation but a branch of a greater Russian realm — is worth more to him than it will ever be to the US, NATO, or the European Union. He would up the ante in blood — and the West wouldn’t match it.

As a former ambassador to Russia from New Zealand has observed, this means that Putin “can dial up and down the pressure as he sees fit.” The West will never be the first to climb another rung on the escalation ladder (to stick with Kahn’s metaphors); it merely follows where Putin goes. The West’s interest always lies in getting him to climb down.

So, Putin is in a pretty place up there on his ladder. He could use that strategic advantage to achieve his objectives, provided he’s clear about what those are. One frightening scenario is that he may not be. Some of the West’s negotiators, after the talks in Geneva, Brussels, and Vienna this week, got the impression that even his own emissaries don’t know whether Putin wants a compromise or merely a pretext for an invasion.

His overarching objective is to create a sphere of influence across the former territories of the Soviet Union and the adjoining buffer states in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and beyond. But he covets this zone less to deter a NATO attack on Russia (which he knows isn’t a risk) and more to prevent any neighboring country from becoming a vibrant, liberal, and pro-Western democracy.

Any success of that sort would only remind Russians what they’re missing and thereby undermine his own rule, which is the only thing he cares about. In effect, he needs to create a belt of failed states around Russia to stay in power.

In this light, his maximalist demands in two draft treaties with the US and NATO, published last month, do and don’t make sense. They do, because they ask for what would amount to that sphere of influence — he wants NATO never again to expand and even to withdraw from Eastern Europe. They don’t, because he knows that the West can never agree to any of this — NATO might as well tear up its charter and dissolve itself.

The question for me is whether Putin, in a lapse of tactical discipline, accidentally forfeited his escalation dominance. After all, he can dominate only as long as he’s the one deciding whether to climb up or down the ladder.

Owing to something called “audience costs,” Putin may have lost that freedom to choose. The audience he cares about is his own country’s domestic population. Even though Russians can’t choose their leader freely, they must fear and respect him enough for him to hold on to power indefinitely.

Now imagine Putin simply dropping his demands to freeze and shrink NATO and then withdrawing his huge invasion force from the Ukrainian border. The West would of course give him something to brag about — an agreement that both sides won’t maneuver in a certain geography, or something of that sort. But how could he explain to Russians such a huge climbdown from the ladder? He’d look like a loser. And that’s what he can’t afford.

So, there’s a real risk that Putin has become trapped in “path dependence.” This concept originally had nothing to do with international relations. It describes situations in which our decisions now are constrained by other decisions made in the past. For example, we have QWERTY keyboards (or software standards, railway gauges, welfare systems, you name it) not because they’re best suited for the task today, but because legacies led to dependencies.

My fear is that Putin, with his many acts of aggression — from cyberattacks to disinformation campaigns and more — has by now gone far enough down a path to make him depend on it. During the first rounds of escalation, he may have been dominant. Now he may feel that, because of what he’s already done, he has no option but to go all the way to war.

BLOOMBERG OPINION

FBI storms Texas synagogue to release hostages, gunman dead

COLLEYVILLE, Texas — An FBI Hostage Rescue Team stormed a synagogue in Colleyville, Texas on Saturday night to free three remaining hostages of a gunman who had disrupted a religious service and began a standoff with police more than 10 hours earlier.

All the hostages were safely released on Saturday night and the gunman was dead, Colleyville Police Chief Michael Miller said at a news conference.

The gunman had initially taken four people hostage, including the rabbi, at the Congregation Beth Israel, officials said. One hostage was released unharmed six hours later.

Local reporters said they heard the sound of explosions, possibly flashbangs, and the sound of gunfire shortly before Texas Governor Greg Abbott announced the crisis was over.

“Prayers answered. All hostages are out alive and safe,” Mr. Abbott said on Twitter. The FBI said they have confirmed the identity of the gunman but said they would not yet disclose it. The FBI declined to confirm the cause of his death, saying it was still under investigation.

The Colleyville Police Department said it first responded to the synagogue with SWAT teams in response to emergency calls beginning at about 10:41 a.m. during the Shabbat service, which was being broadcast online. FBI negotiators soon opened contact with the man, who said he wanted to speak to a woman held in a federal prison.

No injuries were reported among the hostages.

In the first few hours, the man could be heard having a one-sided conversation in what appeared to be a phone call during a Facebook livestream of the service of the Reform Jewish synagogue in Colleyville, which is about 16 miles (26 kms) northeast of Fort Worth. The livestream cut off around 3 p.m. EST (2000 GMT).

Before the livestream was ended, the man could be heard ranting and talking about religion and his sister, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reported. The man could be heard repeatedly saying he didn’t want to see anyone hurt and that he believed he was going to die, the newspaper said.

President Joseph R. Biden was briefed on the crisis, and Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Twitter he was praying for the safety of the hostages.

Barry Klompus, a member of the congregation since it opened in 1999, said he tuned into the livestream.

“It was horrible listening and watching,” Mr. Klompus said in a telephone interview.

A US official briefed on the matter told ABC News the hostage-taker had claimed to be the brother of Pakistani neuroscientist Aafia Siddiqui, who is serving an 86-year US prison sentence for her 2010 conviction for shooting at soldiers and FBI agents, and that he is demanding she be freed.

Siddiqui is being held at a federal prison in the Fort Worth area. A lawyer representing Siddiqui, Marwa Elbially, told CNN in a statement the man was not Siddiqui’s brother. He implored the man to release the hostages, saying Siddiqui’s family condemned his “heinous” actions.

The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), a US Muslim advocacy group, condemned the man’s actions.

“This latest antisemitic attack on Jewish Americans worshipping at a synagogue is an act of pure evil,” CAIR said in a statement. — Reuters

Casualty reports awaited from tsunami-hit Tonga with comms mostly down

WELLINGTON — Tsunami-hit Tonga remained largely uncontactable on Sunday with telephone and internet links severed, leaving relatives in faraway New Zealand praying for their families on the Pacific islands as casualty reports had yet to come through.

An underwater volcano off Tonga erupted on Saturday, triggering warnings of 1.2-meter tsunami waves and evacuation orders on the shores of Tonga as well as several South Pacific islands, where footage on social media showed waves crashing into coastal homes.

Internet and phone lines went down at about 6.40 p.m. local time on Saturday, leaving the 105,000 residents on the islands virtually uncontactable.

There are no official reports of injuries or deaths in Tonga as yet although communications are limited and contact has not been established with coastal areas beyond the capital Nuku’alofa, Jacinda Ardern the Prime Minister of New Zealand told a news conference on Sunday.

Tonga, an island nation with around 105,000 residents, lies 2,383 kilometers (1,481 miles) northeast of New Zealand.

“Nuku’alofa is covered in thick plumes of volcanic dust but otherwise conditions are calm and stable,” Ms. Ardern said.

“We have not yet received news from other coastal areas,” she said.

Satellite images captured the volcanic eruption on Saturday as the explosion sent plumes of smoke into the air and about 12 miles above the sea level. The sky over Tonga was darkened by the ash.

Concerns were growing among the Tongan community in New Zealand, desperate to make contact with their families back home. Some churches organized community prayers in Auckland and other cities.

“We pray God will help our country at this sad moment. We hope everybody is safe,” Maikeli Atiola, the Secretary of the Wesleyan Church of Tonga in Auckland said, Radio New Zealand reported.

Ms. Ardern said the main undersea communications cable has been impacted, likely due to loss of power.

Power was being restored in some areas on the islands and local mobile phones were slowly starting to work, she added.

Official damage assessments were not yet available, she said. But Ms. Ardern said the New Zealand high commission in Nuku’alofa had said the tsunami has damaged boats, shops and other infrastructure.

Tonga’s cabinet held a crisis meeting on Sunday and was contacting development partners, a spokeswoman for Zed Seselja, Australia’s minister for international development and the Pacific told Reuters. She said Australia would sent a P8 surveillance aircraft to Tonga on Monday.

PACIFIC IMPACT
The Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha’apai volcano has erupted regularly over the past few decades but Saturday’s eruption was so loud that residents parts of faraway Fiji and New Zealand said they heard it.

“My entire house was shaking,” said Sanya Ruggiero, a Consulting Communications Advisor based in Suva, the capital of Fiji, some 750 kms from Tonga.

“My doors, windows were all rattling like hell. And mine was not even as bad as others. Hundreds of people ran out of their homes,” said Ruggiero, who consults for several agencies including the United Nations.

Rumblings and eruptions from the volcano continued to be heard through the night, Ruggiero said. Hundreds of people were moved to evacuation centers in Suva. Fiji Airways had to cancel all its flights due to the ash clouds.

“This is the worst disaster Tonga has had in living memory and the recovery from this is going to take years,” Ruggiero said.

Experts said the ash fallout could contaminate drinking water and cause respiratory issues.

“Help will be needed to restore drinking water supplies. People of Tonga must also remain vigilant for further eruptions and especially tsunami with short notice and should avoid low lying areas,” said Shane Cronin, professor at the School of Environment, University of Auckland.

The eruptions triggered tsunami warnings across the Pacific, with the United States urging people on its Pacific coastline to stay away from the shores and Australia’s New South Wales region closing beaches.

Hundreds of thousands of Japanese citizens were advised to evacuate as waves of more than a meter hit coastal areas. — Reuters