The first 365 days

December 19, 2021 | 10:20 pm

(Part 2)

As an input to the programs of the national candidates and their teams, a few economists and subject matter expert friends in the Foundation for Economic Freedom, the Management Association of the Philippines, the Makati Business Club, the Philippine Disaster Resiliency Foundation, and I developed a 10-point wish list for the first 365 days of the new administration. I am pleased to share this with readers, abbreviated a bit to fit column space.

(Points one to four of the 10-point wish list were tackled in Part 1 which can be found here: https://www.bworldonline.com/the-first-365-days/.)

5. ADDRESS THE COUNTRY’S ENERGY SECURITY

Address the country’s future Energy Security situation to ensure continued access to cleaner forms of energy, future exploration of offshore resources which do not place the country at political or national security risk, and the provision of affordable secure energy and power.

a. Background: Malampaya currently serves around 30% of Luzon’s power demand, however, the indigenous gas field has already exhibited resource decline beginning in 2021. With the expectation that the resource is good for another five to seven years, there is an urgent need to develop the “next Malampaya” to ensure the country’s energy security.

b. It is critical to secure private sector investment developing all forms of energy investments, with government guaranteeing a fair, transparent, and consistent selection process for granting service contracts. It is likewise critical to address geopolitical issues (i.e. enforcement of The Hague ruling) and firmly establish fiscal terms (i.e. review of PD 87) in seeking to expand oil and gas exploration in the West Philippine Sea.

c. Create a dynamic LNG (liquified natural gas) economy by investing in enabling infrastructure through PPP (private public partnerships).

d. Scale up renewables by setting aspirational goals. Enforce the upgrade of the national grid network through a thorough implementation of the transmission development plan and ensuring accountability.

e. Aggressively encourage greater electrification in the transportation sector by introducing better incentives for public utility and private electric vehicles, including incentivizing or supporting the construction of needed infrastructure (e.g. charging stations).

6. UPHOLD THE RULE OF LAW

Uphold the rule of law through increased transparency in government, successful prosecution of erring individuals, and restore and strengthen faith in our institutions.

a. Ensure the proper implementation of the intent and letter of Executive Order No. 2, s. 2016, which operationalizes the Constitutional provisions on the Filipino’s right to information, at least for the Executive Branch.

b. Aggressively pursue and swiftly decide on cases against officials and associates accused of corrupt practices (e.g. PhilHealth, Pharmally), with utmost adherence to the principles of justice and fairness, while on trial or under investigation. Commit to a clear policy that erring public officials will not just be merely “fired” from their government posts (and be placed in another agency) but will be disqualified from public office as the law provides, and prosecuted to the law’s fullest extent.

c. Restore and subsequently strengthen faith in our institutions, particularly those that directly interface with the public (Land Transportation Office, National Bureau of Investigation, Bureau of Internal Revenue, Philippine National Police, Metropolitan Manila Development Authority, etc.). As a significant and high impact start, correct negative perceptions against the Philippine National Police, considering the present administration’s drug war and persistent perceptions of corruption.

7. REVIVE THE PPP MODEL OF INFRA DEVELOPMENT

Revive the PPP model of infrastructure development to accelerate both physical and digital infrastructure investments.

a. Accept and process unsolicited PPP proposals, especially mature ones that the current administration was unable to evaluate and pursue, while a new pipeline of solicited projects is being developed. In addition, convert back to PPP, projects that were redirected for ODA (particularly Chinese ODA or official development assistance) and government procurement (e.g. new water sources for National Capital Region, regional airports, etc).

b. Consider major tweaks in PPP policy, including those that may require legislation, particularly on proper risk allocation (e.g., stringent Material Adverse Government Action [MAGA], which remain as an obstacle in pursuing PPP due to unacceptably high regulatory and political risks). Furthermore, be open to PPP solutions that go beyond what is provided in the BOT (build-operate-transfer) Law to address critical national and local needs in public health, digital transformation, and ease of doing business.

c. Declare and commit to the sanctity of contracts through good faith adherence to PPP contract terms and decisions of international arbitration tribunals (e.g. MWSS concession contracts, automatic adjustments in rates in toll roads). Apart from exceptional circumstances where the public interest is conclusively compromised, contracts executed by parties should be upheld in its entirety. Any concerns on contract terms should be discussed in a constructive manner, aimed at coming up with a fair agreement to all parties.

8. CRAFT INDUSTRY ROADMAPS IN 10 KEY SECTORS

Craft Industry Roadmaps in the 10 sectors with the most potential for massive job generation, such as tourism, BPO (business process outsourcing), agriculture, forestry, manufacturing, construction, responsible mining, MSMEs (micro, small and medium enterprises), among others.

a. Roadmap development will be led by the respective industry associations and co-created with the National Government and Academe.

b. To be developed roadmaps will feature assessments of our global competitiveness, international benchmarks, and persistent systemic challenges, while exploring and recommending solutions and opportunities to harness.

c. These roadmaps will mandate actionable, time-bound plans for the next five years, with a prioritized list of support required from the National Government.

9. INSTITUTIONALIZE LABOR FLEXIBILITY

Institutionalize labor flexibility both through executive action and through legislation for quick employment generation especially in depressed areas, through win-win solutions.

a. Establish Special Employment Zones (SEZs) in high unemployment areas. The chief features of these SEZs will be a suspension of the minimum wage and labor security regulations, while allowing for flexible wage rates. Legally mandated social security protections like social security payments will be kept in place.

b. Pass a revised Apprenticeship Law. The existing apprenticeship law is defective as it is applicable only for technical industries, and the coverage is only good for six months, which is not enough time for an employer to properly train an apprentice and subsequently decide whether to engage the apprentice as a full-time employee.

c. Amend the Labor Security Provisions in the Labor Code in exchange for Portability of Pensions. The current arrangement of requiring companies to permanently hire employees who have rendered six months of tenure has given rise to the ENDO (“end of contract”) phenomenon to the detriment of employees, while imposing restraints on employers in adjusting their staffing cases of undesirable employees. A win-win solution would be to allow for flexible employment arrangements, but supporting this by requiring companies to fully fund and allow portability of pensions that the employee had already accumulated to his next employer, rather than having it reset to zero when he or she changes jobs.

10. IMPROVE EASE OF DOING BUSINESS AND PUBLIC SERVICE DELIVERY

Improve the ease of doing business and delivery of public services through e-government and the National ID System.

a. Further digitalize government services to improve service delivery. Use the National ID as the basic platform for eGov services. For Businesses, a Philippine Business Number (PHBN) can be created as a form of “national ID for enterprises.”

b. Follow the principle of “one-time only data entry” and sharing of data across agencies so businesses do not need to keep submitting same data to different agencies. PHBN could address this issue.

c. Look at national government agencies that interface with a large constituency and digitalize their services (Department of Foreign Affairs, the Bureau of Internal Revenue, Securities and Exchange Commission, the National Bureau of Investigation, the Land Transportation Office); LGUs to be tackled differently (they should just plug in to an existing platform, rather than build their own).

d. Promote innovation by allowing private sector app developers to offer service subscriptions to national government agencies and LGUs and to earn a revenue share or transaction fees from their services. The aim is to steadily shift government’s digitalization paradigm from procuring hardware and creating applications from scratch to buying software-as-a-service/subscriptions.

Above are policies; implementation will only happen with strong, honest, Cabinet appointees. Our next leader’s most important task, by far, in his/her first 100 days in office will be to pick a first-class team equal to the most challenging circumstances facing our country, committed to the rule of law, and genuine servant leadership.

Romeo L. Bernardo was finance undersecretary during the Cory Aquino and Fidel Ramos Administrations. He is a Trustee/Director of the Foundation for Economic Freedom, Management Association of the Philippines and FINEX Foundation

The magic of the pink parol movement

December 19, 2021 | 10:20 pm

What started out as a dentist from Naga’s one-time order of pink parols (traditional star-shaped Christmas lanterns) for her own home has snowballed into an initiative with more than 5,000 pink parols sold to individual buyers or donated to urban poor communities, an energetic group of volunteers, and a good deal of funding for voters’ education sessions in marginalized communities.

Dr. Agnes Claros, who hails from Vice-President Leni Robredo’s province of Camarines Sur, initially ordered a few pink parols from a Naga supplier for her own home. When she posted a picture of the parols on her Facebook page, her friends and classmates expressed interest in them and demand started to grow.

She wasn’t expecting the pink parol initiative to turn into a fundraising effort, but buyers themselves suggested that she use the initiative to raise funds for voters’ education activities.

At this point, Dr. Claros’ group of Universidad de Sta. Isabel alumnae were planning to hold voters’ education sessions for VP Leni’s campaign in District 1 of Camariñes Sur. As they needed to raise funds for their collaterals, they decided that the proceeds from the pink parols would go to these sessions. The excess amount would be donated to the Alliance of Women for Action towards Reform (AWARE)’s Let Women Lead fundraising initiative for VP Leni’s campaign.

The volunteer team quickly started to grow as Dr. Claros invited her friends to help out. There was an overwhelming response to a friend’s Facebook post on the pink parol initiative, and 3,000 parols were delivered in a 32-foot truck from Naga to the official Leni headquarters along Katipunan in Quezon City.

Volunteerism started to grow even further. At the newly opened Leni-Kiko headquarters, people in the area took an interest in buying the parols on the spot. Some saw the truck full of parols from their condominium units and showed up to volunteer, offered to lend a truck to deliver parols to Bulacan for free, and bought food for the volunteers. People came all the way from La Union and Pampanga to purchase these parols, and were willing to wait for hours at the HQ to buy unclaimed parols.

The spirit of volunteerism was contagious, and the atmosphere was joyful and relaxed. VP Leni’s message of radical love was vibrant and alive in these volunteers.

Because of the overwhelming demand for parols after VP Leni mentioned them in one of her Facebook live streams, Dr. Claros’ team decided to open orders for a third batch. For this batch, the group acknowledged the need to expand beyond their own circle and gave buyers the option to donate parols to those in marginalized communities.

Dr. Claros’ hope is that this parol initiative goes beyond December and the Christmas season — for people to hang up their pink parols proudly until May, for all the things it and VP Leni’s candidacy symbolizes.

“There’s something magical about this pink parol,” she said.

When Dr. Claros’ team went to District 1 of Naga for voters’ education sessions, they felt that the pink parols unified them with those in the barangays.

The one-hour voters’ education sessions they conducted were particularly crucial in District 1 of Camariñes Sur because it was one of the three areas which Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. chose to pilot the recount of his votes during his 2016 electoral protest. Marcos, Jr. was confident that he would win in this area. True enough, when they went to the area, many people were Marcos supporters and did not accept their tarpaulins and collaterals.

“Wala silang social media, so sa tingin nila hindi sila included. We went there to make sure they know that we remember them and value them. Kailangan alam nila na kasama sila sa programa ni VP Leni. We work with teachers and tell them about the state of our nation and salient information in a very simplified form,” she said. “Sila rin, kasama sila sa crusada, at sinusubukan namin na baguhin ang pag-iisip nila tungkol sa pulitika at eleksyon. There was an overwhelming feeling of belonging and hope.”

(“They don’t have social media, so in their view, they are not included. We went there to make sure they know that we remember them and value them. They have to know that they are included in the programs of VP Leni. We work with teachers and tell them about the state of our nation and salient information in a very simplified form,” she said. “They are included in the crusade and we are trying to change their minds about politics and elections. There was an overwhelming feeling of belonging and hope.”)

Dr. Claros believes that this pink parol has created a beautiful movement. The voters’ education sessions in barangays have expanded beyond Camariñes Sur and will now spread to different municipalities in Metro Manila. Dr. Claros also has plans to facilitate livelihood opportunities for the urban poor parol makers in Camariñes Sur.

“I will call it the pink movement, para magkatotoo na kasali kayo sa lipunan (to make it true that you belong to society),” said Dr. Claros of the marginalized communities they work with.

The volunteerism surrounding VP Leni and her supporters mirrors the spirit behind the work she and the Office of the Vice-President (OVP) have undertaken, especially during the pandemic. The OVP played a critical role in coordinating the private sector and civil society volunteer response to the pandemic — facilitating tasks such as the procurement of personal protective equipment (PPE) for frontliners, mass vaccination, and COVID testing. This is the reason why there has been a call on social media to #HelpLikeLeni.

But a challenge for the campaign, which Dr. Claros and her team are very aware of, is going beyond our echo chambers and dismantling Leni’s association with “elitista” politics. Her detractors have been tirelessly working the angle that VP Leni is elitist (an irony, since she has uplifted the lives of those in the peripheries through her Angat Buhay program and worked as a human rights lawyer for years). And so, battles cannot only be fought in our pink caravans in nice cars. These initiatives are a great show of force, but there’s a need to focus on communities like District 1 in Camariñes Sur, who have been left behind and do not feel the government’s support.

How do we overcome this elitist mindset? Getting rid of this mindset involves unlearning the ideas we have surrounding the presidential candidates — one of them being the common notion that all Marcos supporters are paid trolls, and that they should be shamed. Maybe it wouldn’t hurt for us to accept that while there are paid trolls, a good number of people genuinely believe in the man. If we started to accept this, maybe we could recalibrate our strategy accordingly.

The pink parol is a symbol of how the smallest initiatives can explode into a beautiful and magical movement, as Dr. Claros mentioned. VP Leni’s campaign is made up of organic efforts from people of all walks of life. The challenge now is to sustain the energy of volunteers and expand our ranks. Although the ultimate goal is a victory for VP Leni, it isn’t just about Leni — it’s about helping people out in her name on the basis of her values, beyond the campaign.

Pia Rodrigo is the strategic communications officer of Action for Economic Reforms.

PHL performance in the last decade and the reforms needed

December 19, 2021 | 10:20 pm

The Philippines made significant progress in the last 10 years, thanks to the good fiscal management of the Aquino administration. The Duterte government inherited an economy in the pink of health, with wide fiscal space to pump-prime the economy. With it, they were able to engage in massive infrastructure spending which allowed GDP growth rates to be sustained at above 6%. The Philippines could have graduated to become an upper-middle income economy if not for the COVID-19 pandemic.

From 2010 to 2020, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 56%, from $229 billion to $358 billion. It could have reached $400 billion last year if only we sustained the 6% growth.

The bright spots of the last decade include the IT-BPO industry whose annual revenues grew three-fold, from $9 billion to $27 billion. Local and international tourism, combined, grew by 165% and constituted 10.5% of the GDP in the last five years. Infrastructure development was encouraging too as spending increased from 1.8% of GDP in 2010 to 5.4% of GDP in 2019.

Manufacturing and merchandise exports grew as well but at a tepid pace. Gross value added for the manufacturing sector increased by only 50% from $44 billion in 2010 to $66 billion in 2020. For its part, merchandise exports grew by 88% from $34 billion in 2010 to $63.77 billion in 2020.

The underperformers were the agricultural sector, whose growth over 10 years was only 20%. Mining was also a disappointment, with gross value added growth of only 27%.

Annual intake of foreign direct investments (FDIs) posted a seemingly favorable growth rate of 392%, from $1.7 billion in 2010 to $6.4 billion in 2020. It peaked in 2017 at $10.26 billion. However, it must be taken into context. The Philippines is still one of the lowest recipients of FDI’s in the region, receiving only a third of what Indonesia and Vietnam get.

Per capita income grew by 50%, from $2,217 in 2010 to $3,323 in 2020. We are still a long way from attaining the national goal of $13,000 by the year 2040. The economy would need to grow by an average rate of 7% for 20 years to achieve this goal.

Is a sustained growth rate of 7% possible? Yes, it is, especially since we will be in the midst of our demographic sweet spot until 2040. However, we will not realize the full potentials until we undertake deep reforms in our legal framework. The sooner we effect these reforms, the sooner the economy can operate on all cylinders.

ECONOMIC DRIVERS
As mentioned in this corner last week, the following industries will drive the economy in the next decade: agriculture, auto and auto parts, electric vehicles and parts, aeronautics, next-gen electronics, construction, and creative industries.

To maintain our position as the world’s second largest provider of IT-KPO (information technology-knowledge process outsourcing) services, we must evolve to become a center for excellence in artificial intelligence, animation, game development, information and knowledge management, robotics, cloud technology and software development.

The development of the “blue industries” is another potential driver for the economy. Blue industries include ship building, ports and shipyard management, logistics services, seafarer crewing, maritime financing, aquaculture, and offshore energy exploration.

Mining holds enormous potential but the sector is plagued by disinformation and stigma. As a result, it contributes only 1/6 of 1% of GDP today. It’s a shame since the Philippines sits on 7 billion metric tons of metallic resources and 50 billion metric tons of non-metallic resources. Our mineral cache is worth well over a trillion US dollars at today’s prices. Minerals are our God-given resources that can change our fortunes. It is the Philippine equivalent to Saudi Arabia’s oil. Not to utilize it is a disservice to our people.

NECESSARY REFORMS
What reforms are necessary to be competitive in the abovementioned industries?

Foremost is to restore confidence in government. Policies start from the top and confidence can only be restored if we elect a transformative, honest and trustworthy leader in 2022.

Fundamental to unlocking the potentials of manufacturing, blue industries, and high-tech industries is the ability to attract FDI’s. We cannot do it alone. The restrictive provisions of the constitution must be amended to make us a competitive investment destination. In particular, the 60-40 rule on equity ownership, the opening of mass media and advertising to foreigners (which is basic if we are to compete in knowledge-based industries), and lifting the prohibition of foreign nationals from professional practice and be represented in corporate boards of directors.

In the short term, the passage of the Public Services Act, Foreign investment Act, and the Retail Trade Liberalization Act will open the economy and facilitate the entry of more FDIs.

Other “musts” include the reactivation of the National Competitiveness Council to develop and oversee strategies to make the country more competitive, strengthen the Philippine Competition Commission to eliminate oligopolies and level the playing field, complete the digital transition of government units to improve efficiencies and eliminate corruption, improve broadband services, and better capacitate the workforce by improving basic education system, STEM learning, and technical skills.

The Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Law must be amended to unlock the potential of agriculture. The average farm size today is below one hectare with a maximum holding of five. The maximum size of land holdings must be increased to permit industrial farming. Budgetary support for the agricultural sector must also increase from 3% of GDP to 8%. Finally, government must lift its restrictions on the free flow of agricultural products, especially the badly considered rule that corn farmers cannot export unless the Department of Agriculture declares a surplus of the crop.

There are three impediments that stand in the way of a flourishing mining industry. They are, the ban on open pit mining, the power of LGUs to enact ordinances banning mining, and the zonal ban on mining, which is hyper-excessive. These impediments have to be lifted in order for us to truly benefit from the resources we have been endowed with. Note, that opeisn pit mining are already governed by the strictest environmental laws.

By no means are these reforms comprehensive – but they are a good start. Accompanying these reforms is the continued modernization of infrastructure and continued investments disaster readiness.

We performed better in the last 10 years than we did in the decade before (2000-2010). We need to set the stage, through reforms, to ensure that we attain our development goals in the next two decades. What better time to start than in the coming new year.

Andrew J. Masigan is an economist

andrew_rs6@yahoo.com

Facebook@AndrewJ. Masigan

Twitter @aj_masigan

Beware that nocebo strapped to your wrist

December 19, 2021 | 10:19 pm

MOST PEOPLE are familiar with the concept of a placebo, where merely providing positive information can improve perception of well-being. Yet the opposite also occurs, with negative data making people feel worse about their own health.

That’s a nocebo — Latin for “I shall harm” as opposed to “I shall please” for placebo. And there’s a good chance you have a nocebo strapped to your wrist.

A wave of health-tech gadgets — from fitness trackers to Apple, Inc.’s Watch — means hundreds of millions of people are hooked up to real-time feedback devices. They’re designed to measure your steps, encourage you to exercise more, and give daily updates on your mental and physical health. Apple wants you to “close your rings” — the three colorful circles the Watch uses to monitor your progress — and Garmin Ltd. helpfully tells you when your health is “excellent.”

They make for popular gifts and are bound to be stocking-stuffers this year. Various models of the Apple Watch occupied four of the top 10 most popular items in November’s Black Friday sales, according to Business Insider.

But there’s also good reason to think twice about whether you, or a loved one, will truly benefit from 24-7 monitoring, arbitrary goals served up by an algorithm, and regular notifications telling you that you’re stressed, tired, fit, or simply “unproductive.”*

In fact, research on the nocebo effect — first conceptualized in 1961 — has shown that perceptions of pain can increase with shifts in information and detail. Patients with suspected concussions have shown poorer neurocognitive performance when their history of traumatic injury is called to attention. Concentration falters when unpleasant data is provided. Sometimes, even a change in the color of a specific signal associated with health can trigger discomfort.

With more devices strapped to people’s bodies, noceboes are now creeping into everyday life as people put more faith in data to guide their habits. “It’s about sleep for me, because I will wake up and feel pretty darn good and then I’ll look at my score and sometimes it’s not pretty darn good,” fitness podcaster and Youtuber Ali Spagnola says. “And I can tell that I will actually feel worse after that.”

While a constant flow of data can help people optimize their health, she says she is starting to understand that the opposite can also be true. Ms. Spagnola, who produces videos on music, comedy and fitness for more than 2 million social media followers, says sometimes all we really need is positive reinforcement.

“There’s an exact moment where I speak to the camera and say: I should just make an app that says ‘you are great, and you feel awesome today,’ every day,” she says. That moment led to her producing the O Band. It’s a real product but it literally does nothing but hang around your wrist. It’s a joke with a very serious message.

The nocebo effect has become inherent in social media. Rather than logging on to feel inspired and connected, Instagram and Facebook have made users feel anxious and depressed. The constant feedback of hits, likes, and retweets has undermined what should be appreciations of creativity. According to its own research, Instagram makes teenage girls feel worse about their bodies, the Wall Street Journal reported in September.

It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Well-meaning executives who churn out gadgets and apps place a high degree of faith in their products’ ability to improve life. They rarely stop to think about the downsides. “I believe that technology can make our lives better,” Facebook Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg said in October when he announced his company’s name change. “The basic story of technology in our lifetimes is how it’s given us the power to express ourselves, experience the world with ever greater richness.”

Apple has a similar view of its own devices. Its Watch, “encourages you to be active and get more out of your workouts,” CEO Tim Cook said in September when he announced the latest iteration of the gadget. “And it monitors your health, helping you live a better day.”

It’s a world where we’ve been blindsided by the unexpected. And so we want to believe that technology can forewarn us of dangers and risks. We’ve come to depend on the devices on our wrists to constantly flag us about our physical and mental health. This is more than a little naive. Sometimes all we really need is to be told we’re awesome.

*Garmin’s Connect app helpfully informs you if it’s proprietary algorithm thinks you’re peaking, recovering, detraining, or even unproductive.

BLOOMBERG OPINION

UK sees surge in Omicron cases

December 19, 2021 | 10:14 pm

LONDON — Britain reported a surge in cases of the Omicron coronavirus variant on Saturday which government advisors said could be just the tip of the iceberg, and London’s mayor declared a “major incident” to help the city’s hospitals cope.

The number of Omicron cases recorded across the country hit almost 25,000 as of 1800 GMT on Friday, up by more than 10,000 cases from 24 hours earlier, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said.

Seven people believed to have had the Omicron variant had died as of Thursday, up from one death in the UKHSA’s previous data which ran up to Tuesday. Admissions to hospital of people thought to have the variant increased to 85 from 65.

The government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) said it was “almost certain” that hundreds of thousands of people were being infected with the variant every day and were not being picked up in the figures.

SAGE said without a further tightening of COVID-19 rules, “modelling indicates a peak of at least 3,000 hospital admissions per day in England,” they said in minutes of a meeting on Dec. 16.

Last January, before Britain’s vaccination campaign gathered speed, daily hospital admissions in the United Kingdom as a whole surged above 4,000.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has faced a rebellion in his governing Conservative Party over some of the measures he has taken so far to try to curb COVID-19’s latest spread. A newspaper said on Saturday that Mr. Johnson’s Brexit minister, David Frost, had resigned in part because of the new rules.

The advisors said it was too early to assess the severity of disease caused by Omicron but if there was a modest reduction compared to the Delta variant, “very high numbers of infections would still lead to significant pressure on hospitals.”

London Mayor Sadiq Khan declared a “major incident” — which allows for closer coordination between public agencies and possibly more central government support — as COVID-19 hospital admissions in the city rose by nearly 30% this week.

He said health worker absences had also increased.

“This is a statement of how serious things are,” he said.

Mr. Khan, from the opposition Labour Party, also declared a major incident in January, when rising COVID-19 cases threatened to overwhelm hospitals.

The Omicron variant is estimated to account for more than 80% of new COVID-19 cases in London, officials said on Friday.

EMERGENCY MEETING
Mr. Johnson was due to chair an emergency committee meeting over the weekend with the devolved administrations in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, which have their own powers over public health.

A report in The Times newspaper said officials were preparing draft rules which, if introduced, would ban indoor mixing in England — except for work — for two weeks after Christmas when pubs and restaurants would be limited to outdoor table service.

People would be able to meet in groups of up to six outdoors, the newspaper said, adding that ministers were yet to formally consider the plans.

Mr. Johnson said on Friday “we are not closing things down.”

A government spokesperson said the government would continue to “look closely at all the emerging data and we’ll keep our measures under review as we learn more about this variant.”

The number of all new COVID-19 cases reported in official data fell to 90,418 from a record high of more than 93,000 on Friday, but that was still the country’s second-highest daily toll. Figures typically dip at the weekend.

Cases were up 44.4% over the seven days to Dec. 18 compared with the previous week.

Police clashed with a group of protesters opposed to the latest COVID-19 restrictions near Mr. Johnson’s Downing Street office and residence on Saturday. A number of officers were injured but so far no arrests had been made, police said. — Reuters

Tiger Woods and son Charlie shoot bogey-free 62 at non-PGA Tour PNC

December 19, 2021 | 10:02 pm

TIGER Woods looked solid but not entirely pain-free on his return to competition after a car crash in February that shattered his leg, teaming up with his 12-year-old son Charlie Woods to shoot a bogey-free 62 at the PNC Championship on Saturday.

Woods received a huge ovation from spectators after he crushed his tee-shot on the par-four first hole onto the fairway on a warm day at the relaxed non-Professional Golfers’ Association (PGA) Tour event in Orlando.

Tiger and Charlie wore matching peach-colored shirts and black trousers playing alongside Justin Thomas and his dad Mike Thomas at the tournament, which features 19 father-son pairs and the father-daughter team of Nelly Korda and her dad Petr Korda.

Team Woods finished tied for fifth place, three strokes behind leaders Team Cink going into Sunday’s second and final round.

“It was awesome,” a smiling Woods said after the round, where he and Charlie had 10 birdies.”

Thomas said he was “blown away” by Tiger’s game.

“Some of the shots he was hitting and the speed that he had was just awesome,” he said.

Woods has said he is a long way from being able to compete in a PGA Tour event after the one-car accident near Los Angeles 10 months ago nearly led to his leg being amputated.

He used a cart to get around the Ritz-Carlton Golf Club and looked to have a slight limp when walking. He grimaced in apparent discomfort after hitting a tee shot on the par-four 16^th.

“Oh yeah, I’m tired,” Woods said.

“Even though I had the chance to ride the cart, I’m not in golf shape.

“Like anything, if you don’t have to endure it you start slowing down. It’s nice to have a partner who can hit drives like he did and make a few putts.”

Woods, who endured four back surgeries and multiple knee operations in his career before undergoing a back fusion procedure in 2017, has not set a time frame to return to the PGA Tour but said last month he would love to play in the British Open next July.

The 45-year-old American is tied with Sam Snead for the most wins on the PGA Tour with 82, and his 15 major championships puts him three shy of Jack Nicklaus’ record of 18 major titles. — Reuters

Hong Kong votes in overhauled ‘patriots’-only election

December 19, 2021 | 10:02 pm

HONG KONG — Hong Kong voters headed to the polls on Sunday for the first time since an electoral overhaul and a sweeping national security law were imposed on the city.

The Legislative Council election — in which only candidates deemed by the government to be “patriots” can run — has been criticized by some activists, foreign governments and rights groups.

Hong Kong government leaders have been urging people to vote, saying the poll is representative. They insist the overhaul, like the security law imposed last year, was needed to ensure stability after protracted protests that rocked the Asian financial hub in 2019.

Turnout has been at the core of election debates, with the government on Saturday sending blanket text messages to Hong Kong residents urging people to vote and some critics calling on people to stay away as a protest.

It is a crime in Hong Kong to incite someone not to vote or to cast an invalid vote.

Early indications suggested turnout was far lower than the last legislative election in 2016, according to Reuters witnesses. The previous turnout election was 58%, while the 43.6% in 2000 was the lowest since Britain returned the city to Chinese rule in 1997.

Some of the first to vote as polls opened at 8:30 a.m. (0030 GMT) said they were keen to do their civic duty to ensure stability.

University language teacher Tam Po-chu, 79, said she hoped the new council would be responsive to the public. “There’s no use if they do not think of the Hong Kong people,” she said.

Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam, among the first to vote, told reporters at a polling station in the suburban Mid-Levels district that the government “had not set any target” on the turnout rate, and she was not aware of any set by the Chinese leadership.

Beijing’s Liaison Office in the city did not did not respond to Reuters requests for comment on voter turnout.

Before Lam spoke, several protesters from the League of Social Democrats opposition group chanted demands nearby for full universal suffrage and waved a banner reading “forced to be silent … spirit of freedom, vote with your conscience.”

Security was tight around the city, with 10,000 police and some 40,000 government election workers deployed. Police chief Raymond Siu told reporters before the voting that the mass deployment was to ensure balloting at hundreds of polling stations across the city would be held safely and smoothly.

Chief Secretary John Lee, a former security chief, urged people to turn out, saying those excluded were “traitors” who wanted the vote to fail.

In the run-up to the election, more than 10 people were arrested for allegedly inciting people to cast blank ballots, including people who had reposted social media posts from others, according to government statements.

China”s parliament in March announced sweeping changes to Hong Kong’s electoral system, including reducing the number of directly elected seats and setting up a vetting committee to screen all potential candidates, saying only “patriots” may administer the city. More than a third of the seats will now be selected by a committee stacked with Beijing loyalists.

An ongoing crackdown on Hong Kong under a China-imposed national security law has also jailed scores of democrats, while civil society groups have disbanded.

Unlike previous polls, pro-democracy candidates are largely absent, having declined to run, gone into exile or been jailed. Some overseas activists and foreign governments, including the United States, say the electoral changes have reduced democratic representation in the city.

The Chinese and Hong Kong authorities reject such criticisms, saying the electoral changes and a national security law that took effect last year are needed to enhance the city’s governance and restore stability after the 2019 protests.

Of the 153 candidates contesting the 90 legislative seats, around a dozen say they are moderates who are not aligned with the pro-Beijing or pro-establishment camp.

Hong Kong and Chinese officials have stepped up calls in the run-up to the election for people to vote, fearing opposition to new electoral rules and the absence of democratic will deter voters, some analysts say. Transport operators have also offered free rides on election day.

“Clearly, the government’s objective is to secure a high turnout. Otherwise, it may delegitimize this election,” said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, a professor of political science at Hong Kong’s Baptist University. — Reuters

Thailand beats Singapore 2-0 to remain unbeaten in Suzuki Cup

December 19, 2021 | 10:02 pm

THAILAND handed Suzuki Cup hosts Singapore a 2-0 defeat on Saturday to maintain their unbeaten record in Group A of the Southeast Asian championship with both nations already through to next week’s semifinals.

Neither side had dropped a point in their three games prior to the final round of group matches, and first-half goals from Elias Dolah and Supachai Chaided ensured Mano Polking’s side maintained their perfect record in this year’s competition.

The win means the five-time champions finish three points ahead of Singapore and will face the Group B runners-up in the last four while the hosts take on the winners of the section.

Defending champion Vietnam is due to face Cambodia while Malaysia and Indonesia meeet on Sunday to determine the top two spots in Group B.

Indonesia, who has seven points, currently leads the Group B standings on goal difference from Vietnam while Malaysia are a point behind in third.

Dolah sent Thailand on their way to victory with the opener in the 31^st minute, reacting quickest to score from close range when goalkeeper Hassan Sunny was unable to deal with Bordin Phala’s free kick from distance.

Two minutes into first-half added time the Thais doubled their lead when Supachai slotted into the bottom corner after latching on to Worachit Kanitsribumphen’s through ball.

The tournament had originally been scheduled for last December, but was postponed because of the coronavirtus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

A centralized format in Singapore is being used as entry restrictions put in place around the region meant it was not possible to play the competition on a home-and-away basis. — Reuters

Algeria sees off Tunisia in extra time to win Arab Cup

December 19, 2021 | 10:01 pm

AL KHOR, Qatar — Extra-time goals by substitute Amr Sayoud and Yacine Brahimi gave Algeria a 2-0 win over neighbor Tunisia in the Arab Cup final at the Al Bayt Stadium on Saturday.

It added the Arab crown to the Africa Cup of Nations title Algeria won in 2019, and will defend in Cameroon next month.

The 31-year-old Sayoud made his international debut in Algeria’s opening game of the tournament, but did not play again until coming on just past the hour mark in the final.

His thunderous 99^th-minute shot gave Tunisia goalkeeper Mouez Hassen no chance and turned Sayoud into an instant national hero.

Brahimi scored on a breakaway with the last kick of the game as Tunisia pushed everyone up for a last-gasp corner and he raced away unchecked after the ball was cleared by the Algeria defence.

Both countries were playing without their European-based players and looked tired at the end of the 18-day tournament but kept pressing for goals against the backdrop of a raucous atmosphere delivered by a capacity 60,456 crowd.

The tournament was designed as a dress rehearsal for next year’s World Cup. It has been the first time fans have packed into some of the stadiums the Gulf Arab state built in preparation for the global showpiece tournament.

Thousands of fan-filled cars decorated with Algerian, Tunisian and Qatari flags headed north along the desert expressway leading to Al Bayt stadium, around 50km north of the Qatari capital.

The stadium, which resembles a giant black and white Bedouin tent like those traditionally used by nomadic tribes in the Arab gulf, will be the venue for the World Cup’s opening match.

Tunisia struck the crossbar through Bilel Ifa in the 14^th minute and Algeria goalkeeper Rais Mbolhi had to tip Naim Sliti’s effort over the top in a bright start for the underdogs.

But Algeria should have led when Tayeb Mezaini had the goal at his mercy in the 21^st minute but put his effort wide.

Algeria had the better of the possession but the best opportunity of the second half went Tunisia’s way, as Seifeddine Jaziri led a last-minute counterattack but put his shot into the side netting.

Algeria finally made the breakthrough in extra time, although they needed more saves from Mbolhi to keep their lead intact. — Reuters

US vaccine data gaps shows millions lack shots

December 19, 2021 | 10:01 pm

THE US government has over-counted the number of Americans who are at least partly vaccinated against the coronavirus, state officials warn, meaning millions more people are unprotected as the pandemic’s winter surge gathers steam.

Last weekend, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) revised a bellwether metric — the share of people 65 and older with at least one shot. The agency reduced the proportion from 99.9%, where it had been capped for weeks, to 95%, without changing its raw shot totals.

The move acknowledged a dynamic that state officials have discovered: in collating reams of data on vaccinations, the US has counted too many shots as first doses when they are instead second doses or booster shots.

CDC data show 240 million people with at least one shot, or about 72.5% of the population. But the agency says only 203 million are fully vaccinated, or 61.3%, an 11-percentage-point difference that is far larger than in other developed countries.

State and local officials say it’s improbable that 37 million Americans got one shot without completing their inoculations. Instead, they say, the government has regularly and incorrectly counted booster shots and second doses as first doses, a dynamic the CDC acknowledged in a statement.

That means both the fully vaccinated and completely unvaccinated are officially undercounted. The precise number miscounted is unknown, but revisions in data from three states — Illinois, Pennsylvania and West Virginia — found enough over-counting of first shots to indicate millions of unvaccinated people nationally who’ve mistakenly been counted as having received a dose.

Changes to national data on the scale of Pennsylvania’s revisions, for example, would mean increasing the number of Americans who are unvaccinated by more than 10 million.

“The truth is, we have no idea,” said Clay Marsh, West Virginia’s Covid czar.

The White House referred questions about the over-count of first shots to the CDC. In a statement, the agency acknowledged the ongoing data review. “Given the complex nature of vaccine administration and data reporting in the United States, CDC has been actively working with partners at state and local levels to enhance the quality of vaccine data,” the agency said.

The Biden administration is girding for the new omicron variant of the virus to sweep across the US this winter, accelerating a surge that already threatens to overwhelm hospitals. Without more accurate data on who is unvaccinated and where they live, state and federal officials will struggle to effectively target resources such as publicity campaigns.

“Where it has really made it difficult for us is targeting our booster messaging,” said James Garrow, a spokesman for the Philadelphia Department of Public Health, which has worked with the state to blend data sets for a more accurate view of vaccination trends.

“We don’t have any faith in the numbers on the CDC website, and we never refer to them,” he said.

BIDEN’S WARNING
The unvaccinated will pay the price, President Joe Biden warned Thursday. Omicron is “here now, and it’s spreading, and it’s going to increase,” he said. “For unvaccinated, we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death.”

Some states say they’re confident in their data and no changes are needed, but others have begun submitting revisions. Last month, in one data change submitted to the CDC, the state government in Pennsylvania lowered its estimate for adults with at least one shot to 94.6% from 98.9%. The proportion of fully vaccinated older people also fell. Another data update is due by year’s end.

Illinois found that it had 540,000 more completely unvaccinated people, age 12 and up, than thought — about 6% of what the count would otherwise now be. But the audit also found 730,000 people who were fully vaccinated and hadn’t been counted as such in previous counts.

The official US gap between people with just one dose and those who are fully vaccinated — about 11 percentage points — far outpaces other nations. The next highest gap among Group of Seven nations is the UK, at 6.7 percentage points, according to the Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker. That figure is more in-line with the revisions made in Illinois and Pennsylvania.

In the European Union, it’s just 2.6 percentage points.

State officials say the explanation isn’t that Americans are uniquely unlikely to get a second shot but instead that the country’s health system, unlike its G-7 peers, is exceptionally fragmented. Each state maintains its own set of data, some have several, and all blend their information with data from health providers such as pharmacies and federal programs.

The system struggles to accurately record people who get shots in different places or from different providers. For example, someone who got a shot in one county and a second shot in another might be recorded as two first doses, instead of fully vaccinated.

Another example: a patient vaccinated in the Department of Veterans Affairs system who then gets a booster shot at a private pharmacy might also be inaccurately recorded as two first doses.

The CDC says estimates of vaccine share are now capped at 95% because of these sorts of scenarios, where linking vaccine records is impossible. “This can lead to over-estimates of first doses and under-estimates of subsequent doses,” the agency said.

MORE BOOSTERS
The over-count grew in the summer and early fall as some fully vaccinated people sought booster shots before they were formally authorized by federal regulators, officials say. Those shots were likely recorded as first doses, inaccurately.

On the bright side, the miscount means more Americans have received booster shots than shown in official federal data.

Nationally, CDC estimates of people 65 and up with at least one shot out-pace state totals by about 4.5 million, data compiled by Bloomberg show. While there are some explanations that could narrow the difference — some states don’t count shots administered by federal agencies, like Veterans Affairs, while others do — it also signals a discrepancy in the millions.

One of the biggest gaps was identified in Pennsylvania, where CDC estimates of first doses for the elderly exceed state estimates by about 850,000.

Alison Beam, the state’s acting health secretary, said their review showed that some first doses were actually second doses — meaning that fully inoculated people were counted twice as half-vaccinated.

Other states have submitted revisions for varying reasons to the CDC, including Minnesota, Colorado, New Jersey, North Carolina and Maine. Others, including California, plan to do so.

Some states have declined to revise their data, saying either that they’re confident it’s correct, or that the CDC required line-by-line review and it’s too onerous or that their data vendors limit the ability to make changes. Others say they don’t have the resources to comb through the figures. New York, where the CDC’s estimate of first shots among the elderly exceeded the state’s by more than 700,000 as of this week, reviewed its data and found no material changes. — Bloomberg

Martinelli double helps Arsenal rout hapless Leeds

December 19, 2021 | 10:01 pm

LEEDS, England — Brazilian forward Gabriel Martinelli’s double helped Arsenal ease to a dominant 4-1 win at Leeds United in the Premier League on Saturday.

In the only Premier League game to go ahead on Saturday due to a huge rise in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases among players, Arsenal blew beleaguered Leeds away with a blistering first-half display.

Having shipped seven goals at Manchester City in midweek, Leeds were repeatedly carved apart in the opening period, with Martinelli’s brace putting Arsenal 2-0 up inside 28 minutes.

Frustrations were palpable all round Elland Road as Bukayo Saka added a third for Arsenal three minutes before the break, with the scoreline not at all flattering for the dominant London side.

Leeds did threaten a late comeback when Rafinha converted a penalty 15 minutes from time, but substitute Emile Smith Rowe’s late goal put the game beyond the hosts.

Arsenal’s third league success in a row consolidated fourth spot in the standings, while Leeds’ second successive hammering left them down in 16^th, five clear of the drop zone, but having played three more games than Burnley in 18^th.

“I am very happy with the performance, the week that we had, and the way we are moving forward,” Arsenal coach Mikel Arteta said.

“It is always difficult to play against Leeds. They didn’t give up on the second half. I am pleased, it is not easy to play the way we did in this atmosphere. We made a real statement.”

The visitors were well on top from the start against an injury-ravaged Leeds. Home goalkeeper Illan Meslier was forced into a fine save as the hosts’ defense still looked shell-shocked after their mauling at the Etihad Stadium on Tuesday.

Saka should have scored from the rebound, but Arsenal did not have to wait long for the opener as Martinelli, leading the line in place of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang who was again left out for a disciplinary breach, arrowed a shot into the top corner.

The Gunners continued to dominate, with Scotland full back Kieran Tierney forcing another fine save out of Meslier, before the hosts mustered their first attack as Rafinha fired wide.

Martinelli, whose Arsenal career has been plagued by injury, made it two after brilliantly latching onto Granit Xhaka’s through pass and lofting the ball over Meslier.

Saka’s goal had an element of fortune about it as a deflection took it past Meslier whose performance ensured it was only three at the break.

Arsenal’s 11 shots on target in the first half is the most in the opening 45 minutes by any side in a single Premier League match since 2003-04, when Opta started collecting such stats.

Leeds improved in the second half and deservedly got a lifeline when Ben White fouled Joe Gelhardt in the penalty area and Rafinha hammered in the spot-kick.

Without injured striker Patrick Bamford, however, Leeds lacked the firepower to complete the turnaround and Smith Rowe’s calm finish ended their faint hopes.

It was the first time Leeds have lost three successive league games under manager Marcelo Bielsa.

“There were more chances generated than the goals that they scored,” Bielsa said. “When we lost the ball in our own half, this increased the amount of chances they (Arsenal) could create.

“Always the support like the team received today is inspiring to us. It is not easy when a team has conceded 14 goals in three games. If the fans were not so supportive of me, I could understand it.” — Reuters

Chinese city’s tennis ambitions imperilled by Peng Shuai scandal

December 19, 2021 | 10:00 pm

SHENZHEN, China — Hosting the Women’s Tennis Association (WTA) Finals was supposed to put the Chinese technology hub of Shenzhen on the sporting map, but the suspension of the tournament in the wake of the Peng Shuai scandal has left its ambitions in limbo.

China’s “miracle” city, best known as the launchpad of the country’s 40-year economic transformation, is among China’s wealthiest and is home to tech giants including Huawei Technologies and Tencent Holdings.

In January 2018, the WTA announced that Shenzhen had trumped rival bids from Manchester, Prague, St Petersburg and former host Singapore to stage what would “easily be the largest and most significant WTA Finals” in its history, its chairman and CEO Steve Simon said at the time.

The city of more than 17 million that neighbours Hong Kong had promised a state-of-the-art stadium, while local real estate developer Gemdale Corp put up $14 million in prize money — double the pot of the previous finals — winning the right to stage the event from 2019 to 2028.

But early this month, Simon announced the WTA would suspend tournaments in China over the treatment of former No. 1 doubles player Peng Shuai, who was not seen in public for nearly three weeks after accusing China’s former Vice-Premier Zhang Gaoli of sexual assault.

“Unless China takes the steps we have asked for, we cannot put our players and staff at risk by holding events in China,” Simon said, taking a stand that drew support from the global tennis community but embarrassed Beijing as it prepares to host the Winter Olympics in February.

Doubt over the tournament’s future highlights the clash between China’s global sporting ambitions and western criticism of Beijing’s authoritarianism. A handful of countries led by the United States have announced a diplomatic boycott of the Olympics — meaning they won’t send government representatives.

China hosted nine WTA events in 2019, but the WTA confirmed on Dec. 7 that the traditional season-opening Shenzhen Open, an event separate from the WTA Finals, will not take place in the first half of 2022. China has been all-but-shut to international visitors during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

A spokesperson for the Shenzhen government said he did not know whether the WTA would return. The Florida-based WTA said it remained hopeful that China would do what it asked in allowing for a direct line of communication with Peng.

“That is why this is a suspension at this point, not a cancelation,” a spokesperson said.

MISSED SERVE
For Shenzhen, the WTA Finals were to be a boost to its cultural and sporting prestige.

In late 2017, then-mayor Chen Rugui personally lobbied Simon to host the finals, saying Shenzhen is a young and open city and the tournament would help “take sports to a new level”, according to an official report.

Chinese media were effusive.

“It’s not just a major event for Chinese fans and tennis, but a fantastic chance for Shenzhen to become an internationally renowned name,” the Shenzhen Evening News said.

The WTA Finals is the most prestigious women’s event after the four Grand Slams, and the Shenzhen prize money was $5 million more than in the equivalent men’s ATP Finals, ensuring a star-studded draw. World No. 1 Ashleigh Barty of Australia won the first Shenzhen WTA Finals in 2019.

“It’s the biggest tournament outside the Grand Slams, it’s massive, it’s hard to overstate the importance of that in terms of the prestige and the level of the players and the money involved,” said Mark Dreyer of China Sports Insider.

POLITICAL GOODWILL
Shenzhen’s tennis hopes also underscored the confluence in China between sports and the now-struggling property sector.

Nine of the 16 teams in China’s troubled top soccer league, which became notorious for splashing out millions of dollars for global stars, are majority-owned by companies linked to the real estate sector, including debt-strapped China Evergrande Group and the Kaisa Group, which owns Shenzhen’s club.

Gemdale, which sponsored the tournament, operates several tennis facilities in Shenzhen including an “international” training academy.

“Their business model is not to get it back in ticket sales and all that sort of stuff, it’s political goodwill that they get from the Shenzhen government,” Dreyer said.

Gemdale declined to comment.

As for the stadium, the plan is to preserve the facade of a 1985 arena — historic by Shenzhen standards — in a 3.6 billion yuan ($566 million) renovation that would expand its capacity to 16,000, according to announcements and a person with knowledge of the matter.

Work continues as the stadium will host other events, said two people with knowledge of the matter. For now, it remains a dusty construction site in the central Futian district. — Reuters

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