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Sinn Fein calls for united Ireland debate after historic election win

THE TITANIC BUILDING and Harland and Wolff cranes are seen in Belfast, Northern Ireland, April 29, 2022. — REUTERS

BELFAST —  Sinn Fein, the former political wing of the Irish Republican Army (IRA), hailed its first victory in a Northern Ireland Assembly election as a “defining moment” for the British-controlled region and called for a debate on a united Ireland.

Sinn Fein was ahead of the pro-British Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) by 27 to 24 seats with two left to declare, making it the first Irish nationalist party to become the largest in the devolved assembly.

“Today represents a very significant moment of change. It’s a defining moment in our politics and for our people,” said the head of Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland, Michelle O’Neill, whose party secured 29% of first-preference votes to the DUP’s 21.3%.

She said there should now be an “honest debate” around the party’s goal of unifying the territory with the Republic of Ireland.

The victory will not change the region’s status, as the referendum required to leave the United Kingdom is at the discretion of the British government and likely years away.

But the symbolic importance is huge, ending a century of domination by pro-British parties, supported predominantly by the region’s Protestant population.

The DUP, a leading proponent of Britain’s exit from the European Union, saw support undermined in part due to its role in post-Brexit talks between London and Brussels that resulted in trade barriers between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom.

‘HISTORIC RESULT’
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, who is also leading a campaign to secede from the United Kingdom, was among the first to congratulate Sinn Fein in a Twitter post that hailed a “truly historic result.”

While the largest party has the right to put forward a candidate for First Minister of Northern Ireland’s compulsory power-sharing government, disagreements with the DUP mean such an appointment could be months away.

Asked by a journalist if she expected to become the region’s first Irish nationalist First Minister, Ms. O’Neill said: “The people have spoken.”

DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson said his party would not join the government unless the protocol governing Northern Ireland’s trade with the rest of the UK following its exit from the European Union was totally overhauled.

The DUP’s campaign focused on a promise to scrap what it calls a border in the Irish Sea.

Mr. Donaldson said he would see what British Prime Minister Boris Johnson says on the topic in a speech next week before deciding his next move.

The British government’s minister for Northern Ireland Brandon Lewis in a statement called on the parties to form an executive as soon as possible.

Sinn Fein was long shunned by the political establishment on both sides of the Irish border for its links to Irish Republican Army violence during three decades of fighting over Northern Ireland’s place within the United Kingdom that ended with a 1998 peace deal.

Since then it has reinvented itself to become the most popular party in the Republic of Ireland, where it has carved out a successful base by campaigning on everyday issues such as the cost of living and healthcare.

It followed a similar path in the Northern Irish elections, where it focused on economic concerns rather than Irish unity to appeal to middle-ground voters.

The election follows demographic trends that have long indicated that pro-British Protestant parties would eventually be eclipsed by predominantly Catholic Irish nationalist parties who favor uniting the north with the Republic of Ireland. — Reuters

Taliban orders Afghan women to cover faces again

US Office of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff/Flickr

KABUL — Afghanistan’s Taliban government ordered women on Saturday to cover their faces in public, a return to a signature policy of their past hardline rule and an escalation of restrictions that are causing anger at home and abroad.

A decree from the group’s supreme leader, Haibatullah Akhundzada, said that if a woman did not cover her face outside home, her father or closest male relative would be visited and face potential prison or firing from state jobs.

“We call on the world to co-operate with the Islamic Emirate and people of Afghanistan … Don’t bother us. Don’t bring more pressure, because history is witness, Afghans won’t be affected by pressure,” Mohammad Khalid Hanafi, the minister for the Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice, told a news conference.

The ideal face covering was the all-encompassing blue burqa, the group said, referring to the garment that was obligatory for women in public during the Taliban’s previous 1996-2001 rule.

Most women in Afghanistan wear a headscarf for religious reasons but many in urban areas such as Kabul do not cover their faces.

The Taliban has faced intense criticism from Western governments, but also by some religious scholars and Islamic nations, for limiting women’s rights including keeping girls’ high schools closed.

The United Nations’ mission to Afghanistan (UNAMA) said in a statement on Saturday that it would immediately seek meetings with the Taliban over the issue, adding it would consult with others in the international community on the implications of the ruling.

“UNAMA is deeply concerned with today’s announcement by the Taliban de facto authorities … this decision contradicts numerous assurances regarding respect for and protection of all Afghans’ human rights,” the statement said.

The United States and others have already cut development aid and sanctioned the banking system since the group took over in August, pushing Afghanistan towards economic ruin.

The Taliban says it has changed since its last rule, but in recent months has added regulations limiting women’s movement without a male chaperone and banning men and women from visiting parks together.

“It is interfering with women’s private lives,” Kabul-based women’s rights advocate Mahbouba Seraj said of Saturday’s decree. “Today we have lots of other problems, like suicide attacks, poverty … People are dying every day, our girls can’t go to school, women can’t work … But they just think and speak and make laws about hijab (women’s Islamic dress).” — Reuters

Unemployment rate dips in March, job quality worsens

PHILIPPINE STAR FILE PHOTO

By Mariedel Irish U. Catilogo, Researcher

The country’s unemployment rate in March eased on a monthly basis to its lowest since the start of the coronavirus pandemic due to further loosening of mobility restrictions, but job quality worsened to a four-month high.

Preliminary results of the Philippine Statistics Authority’s (PSA) March round of the Labor Force Survey (LFS) on Friday showed the unemployment rate slowed to 5.8% from 6.4% in February. This was also slower than the jobless rate of 7.1% a year ago.

The number of the unemployed Filipinos was reduced by 251,000 to 2.875 million in March from 3.126 million in February. This was also lower by more than half a million from 3.441 million in March last year.

Philippine labor force situation

March’s jobless rate was the lowest since the 5.3% in January 2020, before the government imposed strict mobility curbs in March to contain the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Meanwhile, the size of the labor force in March continued to climb month on month by 1.244 million to 49.850 million. It was larger by 1.078 million from 48.772 million a year ago.

This translated to a labor force participation rate (LFPR) — the proportion of the total labor in the working-age population of 15 years old and over — of 65.4% in March, higher than the previous month’s 63.8% and last year’s 65%.

It was the highest LFPR since the 66.3% in October 2011.

However, the quality of jobs deteriorated in March as more employed Filipinos look for an additional job or longer working hours. The underemployment rate rose to 15.8% that month, an increase from 14% the previous month, but still lower than the 16.2% in the same period last year.

This translated to 7.422 million underemployed Filipinos, an increase of 1.040 million from February’s 6.382 million and higher by 86,000 from 7.335 million a year ago.

Underemployment rate in March was the highest in four months or since the 16.7% recorded in November last year.

The employment rate — the of the employed population to the total workforce — was 94.2% in March, picking up from 93.6% in the previous month and 92.9% in March 2021.

This was equivalent to approximately 46.975 million employed Filipinos, higher by 1.495 million from 45.480 million in February. About 1.643 million Filipinos became employed from last year’s 45.332 million.

“The March labor force survey results reflect the gains from moving around 70% of the economy to Alert Level 1,” Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick T. Chua said in a press release.

“As we continue to manage the risks, we reiterate our recommendation to shift the entire country to alert level 1 to generate more employment and strengthen the domestic economy against external shocks,” he added.

The National Economic and Development Authority estimated that around 81% of the economy is now under the most lenient Alert Level 1 that prompted businesses to operate at full capacity.

Metro Manila and other areas has been under the Alert Level 1 starting March as COVID-19 cases continued to decline.

Security Bank Corp. Chief Economist Robert Dan J. Roces attributed the improvement in the country’s labor market to the relaxation of quarantine restrictions.

“Latest results jive with higher import numbers, an indication of better capital and consumer demand, and the PMI (purchasing managers’ index) number which was in expansion and indicative of mobility improvements and growth,” Mr. Roces said in an e-mail.

The country’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) an index that indicates the country’s conditions in the manufacturing sector, improved to over three-year high of 53.2 in March. The 50 mark separates expansion from contraction.

In a separate e-mail, Trade Union Congress of the Philippines (TUCP) Spokesperson Alan A. Tanjusay said that “freer alert levels, continuing opening and more mobility of products and services” resulted in the improvement of the unemployment rate.

Meanwhile, the higher underemployment print in March “may be reflective of a labor market still in recovery mode, as businesses gradually reopen,” Mr. Roces said.

The Filipino worker worked on an average of 40.6 hours in a week in March, slightly lower than the 40.8 in February but higher than 39.7 hours last year.

By sector, the services sector remained the largest contributor to the workforce at 57.4%, lower than the 58.2% share in February. This was followed by agriculture at 25.2% from 23.9% and industry at 17.4% from 17.9%.

Mr. Roces was optimistic about the labor market’s recovery this year.

“The labor numbers at this point is a function of the quarantine measures, and if looser curbs hold, then a return to pre-pandemic labor figures is certain,” he added.

For his part, Mr. Tanjusay, spokesperson of the country’s largest labor federation, expressed uncertainty on the recovery of the labor market.

“It depends on the conduct and outcome of the national and local elections. If the democratic process is followed and results are respected then it is possible for existing and new investors come in and create jobs,” he said.

The national elections will be held on May 9.

The PSA started reporting monthly jobs data in 2021. Prior to that, the agency published employment figures on a quarterly (January, April, July, and October) basis.

The March round of LFS was conducted from March 8 to 28.

Trade deficit widens in March

ICTSI

By Bernadette Therese M. Gadon, Researcher

THE country’s trade-in-goods deficit widened to a three-month high in March as imports outpaced exports which could dampen the economic output in the first quarter.

Preliminary data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed the value of merchandise exports grew by 5.9% to $7.171 billion in March, easing from 15.8% growth in February and 33.4% in March last year.

This was the lowest pickup in five months or since the 2% growth in October 2021.

Philippine trade year-on-year performance

Meanwhile, the country’s merchandise imports rose by 27.7% to $12.175 billion in March. This was slower than the 28.6% posted the previous month but faster than 22.1% a year ago.

This matched January’s pace and was the lowest in five months or since the 25.2% growth in October last year.

This brought the trade-in-goods deficit to $5.004 billion in March, almost double the $2.759 billion gap a year ago. It was the widest trade gap since December last year’s $5.273 billion shortfall.

In the first quarter, the trade gap further yawned to a $13.892 billion deficit, wider than the $8.345 billion gap registered in the same period last year.

For the three-month period ending March, exports rose by 9.8% year on year to $19.418 billion, already above the 6% growth projected by the Development Budget and Coordination Committee this year.

Meanwhile, imports surpassed the 10% growth projection for 2022 with a 28% increase during the first three months of the year to $33.309 billion.

“The bloating trade deficit should weigh on the overall GDP (gross domestic product) print,” ING Bank N.V. Manila Branch Senior Economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa said in an e-mail interview. He expects the economy to grow by 6.1% in the first quarter of this year.

“Export growth continues but has finally normalized after base effects wane. Sector continues to take its cue from the performance of the mainstay electronics sector,” he said.

“Imports also posted an expected double-digit gain in large part because of the bloated fuel import bill. However, key subsectors such as consumer imports and capital machinery suggests that the economic recovery will continue to be shallow as consumption and investment momentum is not as robust as hoped for,” Mr. Mapa added.

Historically, exports of goods and services account for around a fourth of the Philippine economy, while imports have more than 30%.

The PSA will report the first-quarter GDP data on May 12.

Electronic products remained the country’s top export product, accounting for 55.3% of total sales in March. Total receipts for this commodity group amounted to $3.963 billion that month, rising by 8.1% from $3.666 billion in March last year.

Semiconductors, which accounted for about three-fourths of electronic products and 41.8% of total exports in March, increased by 9.2% annually to $2.996 billion from $2.744 billion a year ago.

Other mineral products went up by a fifth to $410.857 million, with 5.7% share to total sales that month.

Other manufactured goods, meanwhile, dropped by 4.5% to $375.679 million. It accounted for 5.2% of exports in March.

Raw materials and intermediate goods took a 37.3% share of March’s import bill. Its bill amounted to $4.544 billion in March, higher by 18% annually from $3.851 billion a year ago.

Capital goods went up by 9.5% to $3.270 billion from $2.986 billion. Mineral fuels, lubricant, and related materials more than doubled to $2.584 billion from $1.042 billion.

Importation of consumer goods likewise rose by 8.6% to $1.711 billion.

Danilo C. Lachica, president of the Semiconductor and Electronics Industries in the Philippines, Inc. (SEIPI) attributed March’s trade performance to the lockdowns imposed in China and Hong Kong, as cases of the Omicron variant rose and supplies were put on freeze.

“What’s more bothersome would be the lockdowns in China. Because we get 30% of imported materials from China and Hong Kong, and basically with the lockdowns, it’s impacting the materials and the logistics lead time. So that’s the impact of the pandemic,” he said in a Zoom video call interview.

“In addition to that, if you have supply chain disruption, your costs skyrockets, as it is right now, Philippines has a higher logistics cost than our ASEAN neighbors at something like 20-30%, so it’s exacerbated by these supply chain [issues] because we have to pay premium for deliveries,” he added.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict that started in February also played a part in terms of fuel costs in the latter half of the quarter, Mr. Lachica said. However, the lowering of prices seen at present indicates better trading in the coming months.

China announced country-wide lockdowns across in late March, especially in their main cities after a surge in coronavirus (COVID-19) cases, forcing companies to stop trading and supplies going in and out to be delayed.

Despite this, China remained to be the country’s top source of imports with 17.5% share in March, lower than the 24.1% in the same month last year. This was followed by Japan (10.2%), and South Korea (9.8%).

China was also the top destination of Philippine-made goods, with a 16.5% share of total export sales in March. It was followed by the United States (15.2%) and Japan (14.5%).

For the rest of the year, Mr. Lachica said commodities related to work-from-home setups will drive the trade, and ease of lockdowns in China will pick up the slower growth recorded in March, adding that the Philippines should also continue to control the COVID-19 cases to avoid further disruption of the supply chain and operations locally.

Restrictions in Metro Manila and various parts of the country have been relaxed to Alert Level 1 since March.

“For April’s trade, I guess we’ll probably continue to see an increase in medical electronics, semiconductor components, telecommunications products because of the work-from-home [setups],” Mr. Lachica said.

“The widening trade deficit means pressure on the peso will persist into the medium term and exert more price pressures for the rest of the year and next,” Mr. Mapa said.

MSMEs are key to creating unicorn startups

Micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) may be the key to birthing the next Philippine unicorns, according to a technology accelerator for early-stage startups.

A unicorn is a startup with a valuation of over $ 1 billion.

“Ninety-eight percent of the Philippine economy is MSMEs. If you can find a way to digitize them and help them export their products on a global scale, you’re going to be a winner,” said Rene “Butch” S. Meily, president of IdeaSpace Foundation, at a BusinessWorld Insights event held on May 6.

Stakeholders from the private and public sectors are laying the foundation for both unicorns and camels to thrive. (A camel is a startup that can survive a crisis without a sky-high valuation.)

“Whether we’re talking about camels or unicorns, we really need to focus in terms of building the foundation, ensuring that we have a robust startup and innovation ecosystem,” said Rafaelita “Fita” M. Aldaba, undersecretary for Competitiveness and Innovation of the Department of Trade and Industry.

“There’s a strong momentum among the different stakeholders.”

Policy reforms that have been enacted to create an enabling environment for startups include Republic Act (RA) No. 11337 or the Innovative Startup Act, which encourages the operation of innovative new enterprises; and RA No. 11232 or the Revised Corporation Code of the Philippines, which allows a single person to form a corporation without the need for shareholders.

Eight regional inclusive innovation centers — including SHINE in Cagayan Valley and iStrike Davao — have been set up to connect and integrate the innovation and entrepreneurial ecosystem throughout the country.

Southeast Asia is home to 35 startups, 15 of which are in Singapore. According to a report on ASEAN startups by Credit Suisse, 19 startups in the region saw an increase in valuation to above $1 billion in 2021 alone.

Mynt, Globe’s fintech arm that manages the e-wallet GCash, is the Philippines’ sole unicorn.

The 2019 Global Competitiveness Report ranked the Philippines 64th out of 140 countries.

“Our country is part of a global village and has to measure itself against international rankings,” said Anna Irmina “Minette” B. Navarrete, the co-founder and president of Kickstart Ventures, Inc. (KVI), a Globe subsidiary and corporate venture capital firm.

KVI has funds focused on digital adoption, telecommunications, and technologies that support the future of data, work, home, and life.

“We need to cultivate ambition on a massive scale,” Ms. Navarrete said. “We need to have a mindset and a perspective that looks to grow, and that looks for consistent delivery of excellence of service and products to a high standard, [and] over a long period of time.” — Patricia B. Mirasol

BW Insights: Transforming Philippine Startups into Unicorns

As many of our neighbors are now showing great strides in producing unicorns, the Philippines continues its search for more startups that will further boost the economy as they solve local problems, as well as make waves globally.

In order to do so, what should be enhanced or improved within the sector? How do we cultivate an environment that will eventually make way for these unicorns?

Learn that and more this May 6 (Friday) at 11 a.m. in the second and final leg of BusinessWorld Insights’ two-part series themed “Philippine Startups: Moving Forward and Up”.

Catch experts as they discuss the topic “Transforming Philippine Startups into Unicorns” LIVE and FREE on BusinessWorld’s and The Philippine STAR’s Facebook pages.

This session of #BUSINESSWORLDINSIGHTS is supported by the Management Association of the Philippines, British Chamber of Commerce Philippines, Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and The Philippine STAR.

Bumble offers online trauma support for sexual assault survivors 

Ivan Radic/Flickr/CC BY 2.0

Dating and networking app Bumble and survivor-led non-profit organization Bloom announced on Tuesday that they are providing online trauma support to Bumble users who report sexual assault or relationship abuse.  

Bumble members who report sexual assault or emotional abuse to the app’s feedback team will be given any or all of Bloom’s self-guided courses, available in English and Spanish, on:

  • Healing from Sexual Trauma;
  • Society, Patriarchy, and Sexual Trauma; and
  • Dating, Boundaries, and Relationships.

In some cases, Bumble users can also access one-on-one chat support and up to six therapy sessions.  

“The safety of our members has been central to our mission from day one. It is vital that we create a space for survivors within our community to be seen, heard, and believed,” said Kenya Fairley, Bumble’s head of member safety support, in a statement. 

In the Philippines, usage of the app remained high amid the pandemic because of Filipinos’ strong online presence, with personality being the top priority for Filipino users when looking for a partner, according to Bumble in November. 

There is no data for negative Philippine-based experiences of online dating, but the 2017 National Demographic Health Survey conducted by the Philippine Statistics Authority showed that one in four Filipino women aged 15 to 49 has experienced physical, emotional, or sexual violence by a partner. 

A global survey that Bloom conducted among Bumble members highlighted that emotional abuse was the most commonly experienced form of abuse, happening almost equally online and in-person. 

In-person abuse is reported less often, however, with 35% saying they didn’t report because they didn’t think it would achieve anything, and 15% saying they thought they wouldn’t be believed.  

“Where there is trauma, there is room for healing. Feedback from our course participants shows that Bloom supports survivors to feel less alone and make progress along their healing journey in whatever way works for them,” said Hera Hussain, founder of Chayn, the organization against gender-based violence that runs Bloom. 

Bumble has no access to any information disclosed in the therapy sessions. Bloom uses technology with end-to-end encryption that enables secure and anonymous group therapy conversations. — Brontë H. Lacsamana

Shanghai says China’s worst COVID outbreak under ‘effective control’

RESIDENTS line up for nucleic acid tests during a lockdown in Shanghai, China, April 17. — REUTERS

SHANGHAI — Shanghai said on Friday it has brought China’s worst outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) under effective control following a month-long lockdown of nearly 25 million people, with authorities vowing to stand by their zero-COVID strategy despite mounting economic costs. 

The number of new COVID infections in China’s financial hub had been on a “continuous downward trend” since April 22, the city’s vice mayor Wu Qing said. 

“Currently, our city’s epidemic prevention and control situation is steadily improving, and the epidemic has come under effective control,” he told a news conference. 

Many of Shanghai’s 25 million residents are still under lockdown and chafing against the measures, now in their second month, implemented as part of China’s “zero-COVID” approach to tackling COVID. 

Mr. Wu sounded a note of caution, saying while community transmission has been “effectively curbed” there was a risk of a rebound, and the city would not sway from the “dynamic clearance” strategy. 

“We cannot relax, we cannot slack off: persistence is victory,” he said, echoing comments at a meeting of the standing committee of the ruling Communist Party’s politburo late on Thursday. 

The virus was first identified in the Chinese city of Wuhan in late 2019. The strategy taken by China to fight it, of mass testing, strict quarantine and sweeping lockdowns, threatens its official growth target of about 5.5% this year and has sent reverberations across the global economy. 

Though some 2.3 million Shanghai residents are still in sealed-off high-risk areas, another 16.67 million are in lower-risk “prevention zones”, meaning they can, in theory, leave their homes and roam around their communities. 

However, many residents have been complaining that different community officials are applying the rules in different ways, with some people in “prevention zones” still unable to get out even though their area has reported no positive cases for weeks. 

One large compound in central Shanghai’s Changning district, announced on Friday that it was relaxing restrictions within the compound and scaling back the number of volunteers helping to deliver food. But its residents could still not get out through its locked gates. 

Shanghai reported 4,024 new local asymptomatic coronavirus cases on May 5, down from 4,390 a day earlier. Confirmed symptomatic cases stood at 245, also down from 261 a day earlier. Deaths fell to 12, from 13 a day earlier. — Reuters

Singapore convicts two linked to $6B penny-stock crash

PIXABAY

SINGAPORE — Singapore’s high court has convicted two people over what authorities consider to be the largest market manipulation case in the city-state, a joint statement by the Singapore police and Monetary Authority of Singapore said on Thursday. 

For almost a decade, Singapore authorities have been investigating suspected trading irregularities tied to a so-called penny-stock crash in late 2013 that wiped out around S$8 billion ($5.78 billion) from the value of three companies within the space of a few days. 

Quah Su-Ling and Malaysian John Soh Chee Wen were the masterminds behind an elaborate scheme to artificially inflate the value of shares of Blumont Group Ltd. (Blumont), Asiasons Capital Ltd. (Asiasons) and LionGold Corp. Ltd. (LionGold), the statement said. 

The pair were found guilty on more than a hundred offenses each, including market manipulation and cheating, it said. 

The scandal, which saw those stocks surge multiple times in the months before they slumped, battered investor confidence and led to a series of reforms to the city-state’s stock trading rules. 

During investigations, Singapore authorities raided more than 50 locations and interviewed over 70 individuals, examining evidence consisting of more than two million emails, 500,000 trade orders, and thousands of telephone records and financial statements, the joint statement said. 

Soh and Quah, who could not be reached for comment, will be sentenced at a later date. 

A lawyer representing Soh did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Quah was not represented in court, according to media reports. — Reuters

Consumers use app to counter record retail fuel prices

Philippine motorcycle enthusiast John Aldwin Bagabagon rode easier than many other local motorcyclists and drivers this year as domestic fuel prices surged to record levels. 

Mr. Bagabagon, 35, and his family are among 200,000 consumers turning to a homegrown app to secure credits for bulk fuel supplies at low prices, saving about 50% on their gasoline purchases over the past four months. 

“I save a lot especially now that gasoline prices are rising weekly,” Mr. Bagabagon said. 

The app PriceLOCQ allows users to stock up on fuel at a set price by converting purchases to digital credits that are later redeemed at Seaoil Philippines gas stations. 

Mark Yu, who launched the PriceLOCQ app in 2020 and whose family owns independent fuel company Seaoil, says use of the app has “skyrocketed” since prices started rising this year, especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted global oil markets. 

Gasoline sales via the app in a single day in mid-March hit 2 million liters, matching volumes for the entire month of February as consumers scrambled to get ahead of price spikes. 

Half of PriceLOCQ’s clients are new customers of Seaoil, which has around 6% of the retail fuel market, said Mr. Yu, who is also the chief financial officer of Seaoil. 

PriceLOCQ is the only app of its kind in the region, Mr. Yu said. Mr. Yu’s personal venture, LOCQ, is behind it, and partners with hedging firms to offset the risks amid volatile prices. 

The Philippines imports more than 90% of its annual fuel requirements. Pump prices in capital city Manila, an urban sprawl home to 13 million people, have risen by 30% for gasoline and 66% for diesel this year, government data shows. Gasoline hit a record of 81.85 pesos ($1.56) per liter in mid-March 2022. 

Early adopters of PriceLOCQ were able in 2020 to purchase up to 600 liters (158.5 gallons) of gasoline and diesel products for future refueling at around 20 pesos per liter. Prices now are around 79 pesos per liter. 

While locking in prices in a rising market is enticing, consumers are advised not to hoard gasoline and buy according to their needs, said Bernard Flores, a Manila-based financial consultant for Pru Life UK. 

Authorities have also warned customers to understand the underlying risks of using the app, including the non-transferability of the credits and the danger of buying bulk fuel and seeing prices fall. 

“It’s like the stock market where you find the desired price you prefer and you lock in on it. Whatever happens, whether the prices go up or down, you are locked in,” Mr. Flores said. 

Many motorists remained undeterred, though, especially those on the roads as part of their job. 

“If this app didn’t exist, we would have a difficult time because … we use gasoline every day,” delivery worker Johnrey Omolon said. 

“It’s a huge help. We get to prepare (for changes) every time gasoline prices increase.” — Reuters

Presidential elections may spell fat stock returns

PHILIPPINE STAR/KRIZ JOHN ROSALES

THE eve of Philippine presidential elections could be a good window to plow money into the nation’s equities. In the six months following a presidential election, the Philippine Stock Exchange Index has given world-beating returns in four of the last five times there were polls to elect a new leader.

The Philippine Stock Exchange Index was up 3.4% six months after Rodrigo R. Duterte won in 2016, almost double the MSCI World’s rise in the same period. The gauge was up 38% at the six-month point after the 2010 vote and 17% after the 2004 election, about twice the global gauge’s gain in the same periods. A drop after the 1998 vote — in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis and the election of B-movie actor Joseph E. Estrada as president — was the only time the Philippine index lagged its MSCI peer comprising both developed and emerging markets.

This upside bias could hold this year particularly if the election on Monday is free of irregularities and the new president names a credible economic team that fosters investors’ confidence, says Gerard Abad, chief investment officer at AB Capital & Investment Corp., adding stocks historically also gain in the year after the elections.

Ferdinand “Bongbong” R. Marcos, Jr., leads in most polls, with Vice President Maria Leonor “Leni” G. Robredo considered by many analysts as the only other candidate who can pull out a victory.

Investors expect some near-term headwinds. A polarized political environment would be a distraction for the country’s new chief, who must deal with surging inflation, rising interest rates and fallout from the war in Ukraine.

“There is strong distrust on both camps that could create a volatile political landscape and rattle the market,” says Jonathan Ravelas, chief market strategist at BDO Unibank Inc., who expects the benchmark to drop to about 6,500 in the near term.

Mr. Abad said he raised the cash proportion of his portfolio to about 17% from 5% in the run up to the election, noting that “stocks correct when politics get ugly.” But more cash will also make it easier to pick up shares on the cheap if the results fuel exaggerated selloffs. He’s currently favoring mining firms because of higher metal prices and also likes the defensive properties of the energy and telecom sectors.

“While a big part of the correction is due to threats of higher inflation, weaker peso and higher interest rates, the election is adding to the market weakness,” Mr. Abad says. “The next president is getting a tougher economy and a harder fiscal position than what Duterte inherited.”

Mr. Abad says investors may be lured back by economic reopening plays. His year-end target for the stocks benchmark is 7,800–7,900 — or as much as 15% higher from the current level. Potential fallout from the election is one of the reasons he lowered his 8,000–8,200 original target.

Political uncertainty has prompted some businesses to put decisions on hold. Metro Pacific Investments Corp., for instance, is yet to give its earnings guidance as the election will affect ventures such as toll roads, power projects and water distribution. Meanwhile, foreign investors have withdrawn net $274 million from Philippine equities this year. — Bloomberg

French left’s new ‘disobedient’ stance is warning shot for EU

The Elysée Palace in Paris, France. — ELYSEE.FR

PARIS — Winning next month’s legislative election may be a long shot for France’s new hard-left alliance, but the fact President Emmanuel Macron now faces two eurosceptic opposition blocs should cause concern among France’s European Union partners.

The French left this week united under the leadership of a eurosceptic party that wants to “disobey” EU rules and “destabilize the Brussels machine”, departing for the first time from the pro-EU stance of previous left-wing coalitions.

This reflects a new state of play in French politics with the Socialist Party, long the dominant force on the left and a driver of European integration, now reduced to a subordinate role in an alliance forged by hard-left firebrand Jean-Luc Melenchon.

The Socialists garnered a meager 1.75% of the vote in April’s presidential election, while Mr. Melenchon, a fiery orator who leads the France Insoumise (France Unbowed) party, won 22%, almost pipping far-right leader Marine Le Pen to the run-off against Mr. Macron.

A poll published this week by Harris Interactive shows the left-wing alliance neck-and-neck with Mr. Macron’s party and allies with 33% of the popular vote. However, France’s two-round voting system means, according to the pollster, that it would still likely translate in a majority of seats for the president.

HEIR TO ‘NON’

Mr. Melenchon is the heir to France’s victorious “non” campaign that rejected ratification of a European Constitution in a 2005 referendum, deeply dividing the left.

Breaking away from the pro-EU Socialists in 2008, Mr. Melenchon founded a party that in 2017 did not rule out taking France out of the EU if the bloc refused to let it roll out its big-spending, protectionist platform.

The new alliance, which also includes Greens and Communists and will fight under the banner “Social And Ecological People’s Union,” says it wants to stay within the EU and does not want to abandon the euro.

However, some of its policies would certainly put France on a collision course with Brussels.

It wants to cut the retirement age to 60 from 62, raise the minimum wage by about 100 euros a month, nationalize the former French electricity and gas monopolies EDF and ENGIE and stop complying with EU budget limits and competition rules.

In the document sealing their alliance, the Socialists said that the concept of “disobedience” to EU rules reflected the “different history” between them and Mr. Melenchon’s party, and that they preferred to say they could “temporarily contravene” EU legislation.

But they add their joint goal is to “put an end to the EU’s free-market and productivist course” and that it could be done by creating “tension” with Brussels.

EUROSCEPTICS ON BOTH SIDES

When asked how they would manage to make Brussels swallow the pill, members of Mr. Melenchon’s party said the sheer size of France’s economy within the bloc meant the EU would have no choice but to agree — unlike the situation faced by the Greek government of hard-left Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras that lost a stand-off with the EU during the debt crisis.

“France is influential in Europe. It’s 18% of the European economy. It’s not the situation of the Greece of Tsipras that negotiated with 2% of the European economy,” Adrien Quatennens, a senior member of Melenchon’s party, told Franceinfo radio.

The new electoral pact still needs final approval from the Socialist Party’s national committee at a meeting on Thursday evening.

Even if it fails to win power in the June 12-19 parliamentary election, the new alignment on the left and the fact Mr. Macron is constitutionally barred from running for a third mandate in 2027 and has no obvious successor, increases the prospect of one of the two eurosceptic blocs winning power in the future.

“In the long term it’s part of a process in which French politics is splitting in three: a pro-European center and blocs of the nationalist right and nationalist left — raising question about how long the center can hold,” Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia Group think-thank told Reuters. — Michel Rose/Reuters

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