SINGAPORE/HONG KONG — The head of a body representing global airlines warned on Wednesday it would take months for jet fuel supply to recover even if Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz, given disruptions to Middle East refining capacity.

Fuel is the second-largest expense for air carriers after labor, typically accounting for about 27% of operating expenses, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz as part of retaliatory moves in the war has choked supplies of jet fuel globally and news of a ceasefire and the possibility of safe passage through Hormuz sent airline stocks soaring.

Oil fell below $100 per barrel after US President Donald Trump said he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran that was subject to the immediate and safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Willie Walsh, director general of IATA, told reporters in Singapore that while he expected crude oil prices to fall, jet fuel costs were likely to remain slightly elevated due to the impact on refineries.

“If it were to reopen and remain open, I think it will still take a period of months to get back to where supply needs to be given the disruption to the refining capacity in the Middle East,” Mr. Walsh said.

He shrugged off comparisons to the COVID-19 pandemic, which crippled global travel.

“This is not similar to COVID. This is not a crisis anywhere close to what we experienced (in COVID),” he said. “In COVID, capacity reduced by 95% because borders closed. We’re nowhere near that.”

The situation was more comparable to other shocks such as the downturns of 2008-09 or the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, he added.

“Post-9/11, the recovery took about four months. In 2008-2009 it was probably 10 to 12 months,” he said.

AIRLINE SHARES SURGE
Airlines across Asia have been cutting flights, carrying extra fuel from home airports and adding refueling stops as the Middle East conflict squeezes jet fuel supply, piling pressure on an industry already hit by a doubling of jet fuel prices.

Jet fuel prices normally move in tandem with oil prices, but they have more than doubled since the Iran conflict, far outpacing a 50% rise in crude prices prior to the two-week ceasefire news.

The news and a possible safe passage through Hormuz lifted airline stocks across Asia. Shares of Australia’s Qantas Airways jumped more than 9%, Air New Zealand rose over 4%, Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific climbed 5%, while India’s IndiGo soared as much as 10%.

Mr. Walsh said the hit to capacity for Gulf carriers, which last year accounted for 14.6% of international capacity, would be temporary.

“Some of that capacity will be replaced by airlines outside of the region … but there’s no way they can replace the (entire) capacity that was provided by the Gulf carriers,” he said, adding that data from April and May would provide a clearer picture of the scale of disruption.

“I fully expect the Gulf hubs to recover and recover quickly,” he said.

On refining capacity, Mr. Walsh said the reopening of the strait, if sustained, would be positive not just for crude flows but for refined products, including jet fuel.

“It will take some time for refineries outside of the region to adapt and increase,” he said, pointing to India and Nigeria as countries with capacity to increase refined product output in the interim.

Walsh added he “would like” to expect China and South Korea to resume exports of refined products once crude flows resumed.

“So there is (refining) capacity available once we get the crude oil flowing, but it’ll take a little bit of time, and with the crack spread elevated the way it is, I think that provides an incentive for refineries to increase the production of jet fuel,” Mr. Walsh said.

The crack spread refers to refinery margins. — Reuters

TOKYO — Gulf states including Saudi Arabia and the UAE are exploring a $2,500 Ukrainian-designed interceptor drone as a cheaper way to counter Iranian attacks that are depleting stockpiles of US-made missiles, a Japanese firm marketing the technology overseas told Reuters.

Since the start of the US-Israeli war with Iran, Tehran has launched waves of cheap mass‑produced drones, including Shaheds similar to those Russia uses in Ukraine.

Gulf states and US forces have largely relied on costly interceptor missiles to shoot them down, underscoring a broader shift in air combat in which cheaper systems deployed in volume can steadily erode stock of advanced air defense missiles.

“Everyone started doing the maths. It simply doesn’t make economic sense and people are finally waking up to that,” said Toru Tokushige the chief executive of Terra Drone. There has been a surge of inquiries from the Middle East since the war began, he added.

The price of each interceptor drone from Terra Drone is 400,000 yen ($2,526). By comparison, ground-launched Patriot interceptors missiles can cost around $4 million each, while a Shahed drone is estimated to cost as little as $20,000.

In the first week of the Middle East conflict, Iran launched more than 1,000 drones and it is estimated to have the capacity to produce around 10,000 per month.

The Saudi Arabian and UAE embassies in Tokyo did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Terra Drone, known for commercial drones, announced its entry into military sales last month through a tie-up with a Ukraine start up, Amazing Drones. It has designed the Terra A1, an interceptor drone, to counter Shahed attacks launched at Ukraine by Moscow.

Under their agreement, the Japanese company will market the interceptor overseas while providing investment and manufacturing know-how.

The Terra A1 has yet to be battle tested and is expected to be handed over to Ukraine’s military in the coming months for trials, Mr. Tokushige said.

Terra Drone already supplies survey and inspection drones to Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company Aramco and could use its presence in the kingdom to help establish interceptor drone production in the Middle East, he added.

“This is an area where Japan’s manufacturing strengths can be fully utilized.” ($1 = 158.3200 yen) — Reuters

SINGAPORE – Oil prices dived, stocks surged and the dollar was knocked back on Wednesday as a two-week Middle East ceasefire sparked a relief rally, fuelled by hopes that oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz could resume.

The news capped weeks of financial market volatility and geopolitical upheaval after US and Israeli strikes on Iran late February pushed tensions to the brink, with Tehran effectively choking off the strategic waterway that carries about 20% of the world’s oil and gas.

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday agreed to a ceasefire with Iran, less than two hours before his deadline for Tehran to reopen the strait or face devastating attacks on its civilian infrastructure.

Market reaction was swift and dramatic, with US crude futures down around 16% to $94.59 a barrel, while Brent futures also slid 15% to $92.35 per barrel.

S&P 500 futures leapt over 2%, while European futures jumped over 4%. The US dollar fell broadly, having been the haven of choice during the tumult.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei surged about 5% while South Korea’s Kospi rose 6%, triggering a halt in trading. That left the MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan up 4%.

Beyond the immediate relief, investors remain keen to see whether the ceasefire leads to a broader resolution before placing major bets.

“Does it mean people are going to take new risks? No, it doesn’t,” said Martin Whetton, head of financial markets strategy at Westpac. “It would have to actually be a lasting peace (to change things). People aren’t actually taking risk.”

The six-week conflict has sent oil prices soaring, reignited inflation fears and thrown the global rates outlook into disarray, forcing governments and companies to scramble for cover against a sudden energy shock.

Trump’s social media announcement marked an abrupt reversal from hours earlier, when he issued an extraordinary warning that “a whole civilization will die tonight” unless his demands were met.

Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, said the pivotal test is whether negotiations keep progressing over the next two weeks – and whether insurers and tanker operators regain enough confidence for traffic through Hormuz to run normally again.

“That will determine whether this remains just a relief rally or starts to look more like a durable de-escalation.”

The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note fell 7.9 basis points to 4.261%, its lowest since mid-March. The yield on US 2-year Treasury note sank 10 bps to 3.727%.

Gold prices rose over 2% to $4,812 per ounce.

In currencies, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar rose 1.3% to above $0.7070 and the euro gained 0.76% to $1.1683. That left the dollar index at 99.047, hovering near a one month low.

Some analysts remain sceptical that the ceasefire will translate into lasting peace, warning of likely twists and turns ahead.

Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said the conflict’s root causes remain unresolved, keeping the risk of re‑escalation firmly on the table.

“We maintain our view that the war will run into June. The implication is dollar losses may prove short-lived.” — Reuters

CHINA and Russia on Tuesday vetoed a UN resolution encouraging states to coordinate efforts to protect commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, calling the measure biased against Iran, while Washington’s ambassador to the world body called on “responsible nations” to join the US in securing the waterway.

The 15-member Security Council voted 11 in favor of the resolution presented by Bahrain, with two against – China and Russia – and two abstentions.

US President Donald Trump threatened that “a whole civilization will die tonight” as Iran showed no sign of accepting his ultimatum to open the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday evening, Washington time.

Oil prices have surged since the US and Israel struck Iran at the end of February, unleashing a conflict that has run for more than five weeks while Tehran has largely closed the strait that was previously the route for about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas.

“The draft resolution has not been adopted, owing to the negative vote of a permanent member of the Council,” Bahrain’s Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani said.

US AMBASSADOR CONDEMNS THE VETOES
The US ambassador to the United Nations, Mike Waltz, condemned the Russian and Chinese vetoes, saying they marked “a new low” when Iran’s shutting of the strait was preventing medical aid and supplies reaching humanitarian crises in the Congo, Sudan, and Gaza.

“No one should tolerate that. They are holding the global economy at gunpoint. But today, Russia and China did tolerate it. They sided with a regime that seeks to intimidate the Gulf into submission, even as it brutalizes its own people.”

Mr. Waltz said Iran could choose “to reopen the strait, to seek peace and to make amends.”

He added, “But until then and afterwards, we call on responsible nations to join us in securing the Strait of Hormuz, protecting it, ensuring that it remains open to lawful commerce, to humanitarian goods, and the free movement of the world’s goods.”

France deplored the vetoes.

“The aim was to encourage strictly, purely defensive measures to provide the security and safety for the strait without spiraling towards escalation,” its UN ambassador, Jerome Bonnafont, said.

RUSSIANS AND CHINESE SAY TEXT WAS BIASED
Russia and China said the resolution was biased against Iran, and China’s UN envoy Fu Cong said adopting such a draft when the US was threatening the survival of a civilization would have sent the wrong message.

Russia’s UN Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya said Russia and China were proposing an alternative resolution on the situation in the Middle East, including maritime security.

A text of that resolution seen by Reuters urges “de-escalation of the ongoing hostilities” and “a return to the path of diplomacy.”

At a regular news briefing on Tuesday, China’s foreign ministry said that the Security Council should act to ease tensions, stop the conflict and resume talks.

“It should not be used to endorse illegal acts of war, let alone add fuel to the flame,” ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said when asked about the UN resolution.

Iran’s UN Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani praised the Chinese and Russian moves, saying “their action today prevented the Security Council from being misused to legitimize aggression.”

Mr. Iravani added that the UN secretary-general’s personal envoy was en route to Tehran to pursue consultations. A UN source said the envoy, Jean Arnault, who left for the Middle East on Monday, intends to visit Iran as part of his efforts to encourage an end to the war, but his travel plans would depend on security and logistics.

China and Russia used their vetoes even though Bahrain had significantly weakened its draft after China opposed authorizing force.

The draft submitted to a vote dropped any authorization of the use of force. An explicit reference to binding enforcement, included in an earlier draft, was also left out.

Instead the text strongly encouraged states “to coordinate efforts, defensive in nature, commensurate to the circumstances, to contribute to ensuring the safety and security of navigation across the Strait of Hormuz.”

It also said such contributions could include “the escort of merchant and commercial vessels,” and endorsed efforts “to deter attempts to close, obstruct or otherwise interfere with international navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.” — Reuters

WASHINGTON — A personal envoy of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres plans to visit Iran as part of his efforts to encourage an end to the Iran war, but his travel plans will depend on security and logistics, a UN source said.

Jean Arnault, a veteran UN diplomat Mr. Guterres named as his envoy on the conflict last month, headed to the Middle East on Monday, but the UN has not announced details of his itinerary.

Iran’s UN ambassador, Amir Saeid Iravani, told the UN Security Council on Tuesday the envoy was “currently en route to Tehran to pursue consultations.”

However, the UN source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Mr. Arnault’s travel plans would be “contingent on security and logistics.”

US President Donald Trump threatened a dramatic escalation of the US-Israeli war on Iran on Tuesday, saying that “a whole civilization will die tonight” as his deadline for Tehran to open the Strait of Hormuz neared.

With just hours to go before Trump’s 8 p.m. EDT (0000 GMT) deadline, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran was positively reviewing a request by Pakistan for a two-week ceasefire to give more time for diplomacy.

Mr. Iravani said Iran welcomed Mr. Guterres’ efforts, including the appointment of Mr. Arnault, to secure an immediate end to the war.

“Iran stands ready to engage constructively with all genuine diplomatic efforts, including through Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt, as well as diplomatic efforts by China and Russia, and supports any credible initiative capable of bringing about a sustainable end to this unlawful and unwarranted war,” he said. — Reuters