BRUSSELS — The world could breach a new average temperature record in 2023 or 2024, fueled by climate change and the anticipated return of the El Niño weather phenomenon, climate scientists say.

Climate models suggest that after three years of the La Niña weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean, which generally lowers global temperatures slightly, the world will experience a return to El Niño, the warmer counterpart, later this year.

During El Niño, winds blowing west along the equator slow down, and warm water is pushed east, creating warmer surface ocean temperatures.

“El Niño is normally associated with record breaking temperatures at the global level. Whether this will happen in 2023 or 2024 is yet known, but it is, I think, more likely than not,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of the European Union’s (EU) Copernicus Climate Change Service.

Climate models suggest a return to El Niño conditions in the late boreal summer, and the possibility of a strong El Niño developing towards the end of the year, Mr. Buontempo said.

The world’s hottest year on record so far was 2016, coinciding with a strong El Niño — although climate change has fueled extreme temperatures even in years without the phenomenon.

The last eight years were the world’s eight hottest on record — reflecting the longer-term warming trend driven by greenhouse gas emissions.

Friederike Otto, senior lecturer at Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute, said El Niño-fueled temperatures could worsen the climate change impacts countries are already experiencing — including severe heatwaves, drought and wildfires.

“If El Niño does develop, there is a good chance 2023 will be even hotter than 2016 — considering the world has continued to warm as humans continue to burn fossil fuels,” Mr. Otto said.

EU Copernicus scientists published a report on Thursday assessing the climate extremes the world experienced last year, its fifth-warmest year on record.

Europe experienced its hottest summer on record in 2022, while climate change-fueled extreme rain caused disastrous flooding in Pakistan, and in February, Antarctic sea ice levels hit a record low.

The world’s average global temperature is now 1.2⁰C higher than in pre-industrial times, Copernicus said.

Despite most of the world’s major emitters pledging to eventually slash their net emissions to zero, global CO2 emissions last year continued to rise. — Reuters

LONDON — Britain’s unwanted status as the only large, advanced economy still to have double-digit inflation represents just one symptom of the serious economic malaise faced by the country.

Annual consumer price inflation (CPI) in Britain fell to 10.1% last month but defied forecasts for a bigger drop from February’s 10.4%, according to data published on Wednesday.

The figures underscored the risk that Britain suffers high inflation for longer than other similar economies due to its reliance on natural gas for heating and electricity and the structure of state subsidies to smooth out price changes.

The Bank of England worries that high inflation might cause a lasting increase in wage demands and business pricing strategies, exacerbated by a post-pandemic reduction in the labor force and trade and jobs market problems caused by Brexit.

Five pounds ($6.21) in Britain today will only go as far as four pounds did in 2019 — a rate of inflation unmatched by other Western European countries over the same period.

“Inflation in the UK has risen further and stayed higher than elsewhere as the UK has experienced the worst of both worlds: a big energy shock like the euro zone and labor shortages — even worse than the US,” said Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at consultancy Capital Economics.

The International Monetary Fund last week forecast British inflation would average 6.8% this year, the highest of any major advanced economy, but not much above Germany’s 6.2% forecast.

Energy is a big part of the story.

British consumer energy prices were 79% higher in March than their level two years earlier, the biggest increase in western Europe.

“The overarching difference that stands out is one of timing of energy support. It’s clear this is having a massive impact,” said Sandra Horsfield, an economist at Investec.

Differing methods of measuring energy bills and the array of national subsidies to help households cope with surging prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have made comparisons more difficult, but economists say there is no doubt that Britain has been hit hard.

Britain’s high rate of energy inflation reflects its heavy reliance on gas for power generation and home heating as well as the poor energy efficiency of its housing stock.

Nonetheless, energy inflation in Britain is likely to follow the euro zone and fall sharply from April as the surge in prices seen last year starts to drop out of the annual comparison.

But domestically generated price pressures are likely to slow the pace of decline in headline inflation.

Prices of consumer services —watched closely by central bankers as an indicator of home-grown price pressures, often from wages — rose by 6.6% in the year to March, with only Austria in western Europe posting a higher rate.

While Britain typically has higher services inflation than the euro zone, that wedge has grown wider in recent months — with economists pointing to the labour market as a culprit.

A rise in early retirement, long-term illness and migration trends have depleted the pool of workers, meaning the recovery of Britain’s labor market from the pandemic is trailing that of international peers.

“Supply is weak because of Brexit and workforce sickness. We do not expect those chronic supply problems to ease in the near-term,” Bank of America economist Robert Wood said in a research note. — Reuters