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Film in 2024: Barbie early awards nods, delayed movies top releases

LONDON — From delayed sci-fi sequel Dune: Part Two to the held-up third Deadpool movie, 2024 will see some major movie releases as the industry recovers from this year’s twin Hollywood strikes which halted film production.

Awards season kicks off the year, with smash hit Barbie leading the Golden Globe nominations with nine nods. Historical drama Oppenheimer, which featured in a summer box office clash with Barbie dubbed “Barbenheimer,” has eight nominations.

Gothic comedy Poor Things, which triumphed at the Venice Film Festival, and love story Past Lives are also strong contenders, as is Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, about the 1920s murders of American Indians in Oklahoma.

“It’s early days but … you have already seen that Barbie and Oppenheimer are going neck to neck,” said Leo Barraclough, director of international features at Variety.

“One film that’s come up just recently is Anatomy of a Fall which is the French film that won at Cannes … Past Lives is a favorite with a lot of people and (historical drama) The Zone of Interest is certainly going to be there.”

Among next year’s releases are films pushed back from 2023, like the big-budget Dune sequel and tennis drama Challengers, as studios readjusted schedules because of the four-month long actors’ strike, which ended in November.

Deadpool 3, whose production was halted by the strike, had its release date moved from May 2024 to July 2024.

“There’s a double effect. Firstly, production was held up, so films like Gladiator 2 (have) been delayed in terms of shooting and, so now the release is going to be towards the end of next year,” Mr. Barraclough said.

“Other films got pushed into next year in terms of releases partly because of the need to promote them.”

Also on the 2024 slate are spy movie Argylle, origins story Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, stuntman action flick The Fall Guy, Beetlejuice 2, and sci-fi drama Mickey 17 by Oscar-winning Parasite director Bong Joon-ho.

For younger audiences, family movie releases include Despicable Me 4, Kung Fu Panda 4, and Inside Out 2.

A survey by ticket-seller Fandango showed the top 10 most anticipated 2024 movies were mainly sequels and spin-offs, with Deadpool 3 at No. 1. — Reuters

Ayala unit invests in North Luzon-based pharma firm St. Joseph Drug

STJOSEPHDRUG.COM

AYALA CORP., through its unit Ayala Healthcare Holdings, Inc. (AC Health), has acquired a minority stake in pharmaceutical company St. Joseph Drug, the listed company announced on Thursday.

In a regulatory filing, Ayala Corp. said that AC Health’s pharmaceutical arm, AHCHI Pharma Ventures, Inc. (APV), signed definitive agreements with St. Joseph Drug (Joleco Resources, Inc.) on Dec. 15 for the acquisition of a “significant” minority stake.

APV serves as the listed company’s vehicle for its pharmaceutical businesses, which include Generika Drugstore and the pharmaceutical importation and distribution arms, Medica and MedEthix.

The company did not disclose both the transaction amount and the percentage of the stake to be acquired.

“This is a well-thought-out acquisition that gives AC Health access to a promising regional pharmacy chain. The investment could drive expansion in provincial markets and aligns with AC Health’s broader strategy of growing its pharmacy platform,” China Bank Capital Corp. Managing Director Juan Paolo E. Colet said in a Viber message.

This move would allow AC Health to expand its pharmaceutical footprint in the Philippines, Mr. Colet said. 

“I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of AC Health eventually taking majority control of St Joseph Drug,” he added. 

“The addition of St. Joseph Drug to our portfolio is in line with our commitment to enhance accessibility and affordability of healthcare for Filipinos nationwide… We will greatly enhance synergies and efficiencies within our pharmacy platform to further improve our products and services throughout our AC Health network,” AC Health President and Chief Executive Officer Paolo Maximo F. Borromeo said.

Established in 1958, St. Joseph Drug is a Luzon-based company that has more than 112 stores in North Luzon.

“Adding St. Joseph Drug to its portfolio expands AC Health’s reach in North Luzon, a region with historically limited access to quality and affordable medication. This could lead to increased market share and revenue in the near term,” Globalinks Securities and Stocks, Inc. Head of Sales Trading Toby Allan C. Arce said in a Viber message.

With the acquisition  AC Health can also optimize St. Joseph Drug’s existing distribution network and potentially reduce operational costs, Mr. Arce said.

“This could lead to lower drug prices for consumers and improve profitability. St. Joseph Drug brings its own established brand and loyal customer base to AC Health. This can solidify AC Health’s position as a leading healthcare provider in the Philippines,” Mr. Arce added.

“The acquisition could fuel further innovation and growth in AC Health’s pharma business, opening doors for new ventures and services,” he said.

he local bourse on Thursday, shares in the company closed P17 or  2.35% lower at P705 each. — Ashley Erika O. Jose

Elephant Gym brings bass-driven math rock to Manila

PHOTO BY BRONTË H. LACSAMANA

Concert Review
Elephant Gym Live in Manila
Dec. 16

Balcony Music House

By Brontë H. Lacsamana, Reporter

FOR Elephant Gym guitarist Tell Chang, it was essential to have Manila as one of the first stops in the band’s world tour this year.

Back in 2018, Filipino fans warmly welcomed the Taiwanese indie rock trio, who headlined the All of The Noise mini music festival. Though it took them five years to arrange a return, the wait was well worth it.

Elephant Gym had a sold-out one-night-only performance at the Balcony Music House in Poblacion, Makati, on Dec. 16.

“The reason we put Manila as our third stop (out of 40 stops) of our tour is because we know the audience here goes crazy,” Mr. Chang said at the show.

While the occasional shouts of “I love your music!” and screams of “Marry me!” often took them aback, Mr. Chang, the bassist (his sister) KT Chang, and the drummer Chia-Chin Tu drew energy from the craziness of Filipino fans to give a remarkable performance.

MAKING AN IMPRESSION
The concert started with the audience singing “Happy Birthday” to Mr. Chang, whose birthday coincided with the show. Shortly after, the band launched into the first four songs of the night — “Frog,” “Games,” “Underwater,” and “Half” — all very intense and instrumentally complicated pieces.

“The four songs we just played are heavy because we want you guys to have an impression that we are strong,” Ms. Chang said after the fourth song.

While she said this in a soft-spoken, sweet manner, it’s worth noting that Ms. Chang’s agile bass playing was the most badass thing this writer saw in any music gig this year.

For those unfamiliar with Elephant Gym, their genre is math rock, which deserves its own explanation.

Math rock is a style of indie or experimental rock that emerged in the United States in the 1980s with bands like Slint, Chavez, and Don Caballero. As its name suggests, it seems mathematical, as it features complex and unusual time signatures.

Many who listen to it might think it sounds odd, but it can be engaging and impressive and kind of like a massage for the ears and mind. (This writer listens to math rock while working since it calms the brain in a stimulating way while not grabbing so much attention as to be distracting.)

As a math rock outfit, Elephant Gym is able to interlace threads of jazz, electronic, and classical music into a unique patchwork of contemporary rock.

The word “elephant” in the band name symbolizes their bass-driven melodies while “gym” refers to nimble, irregular rhythms, a staple of math rock music.

MAKING MUSIC
The fifth song of the night was “Midway,” a fan favorite as it features expressive vocals from Ms. Chang that complement the fast-paced guitar, bass, and drums.

“As musicians, we are always on the midway because we always worry about people not getting into our music,” Ms. Chang said to introduce the song.

She then admitted that making music could be very difficult for artists nowadays who can be overly conscious of what others think.

“But when we got here, we saw so many nerdy guys like you in this venue, so we think that is the reason we make music, because we know you will like it!” Ms. Chang concluded, drawing laughs and cheers from the audience.

Elephant Gym was launched in 2012 in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, with no assurance that any Taiwanese, let alone people from other countries, would take to more of the already-niche sound of math rock.

Little did they know that in 2023, they would have a sizeable following in the Philippines.

COMPLEX EMOTIONS
After the beautiful melodies of “Midway” came the equally exhilarating “Spring Rain” and then the more challenging tune of “Quilt.”

Mr. Chang took over the microphone from his sister at this point and introduced the next song, “D.”

“Commercial and pop culture always talk about the joyful and bright side of life, but musicians or artists like us tend to dig into the negative emotions such as anger, anxiety, depression, and fear, a lot,” he said.

From this familiarity with the negative comes an acceptance of everything and a chance to find peace, he explained — a mindset evident in Elephant Gym’s music, in all its musical twists and turns and complexities.

“D,” followed by “Shadow,” “Head,” and “Body,” all of which flowed together as if in one, long track, featured Ms. Chang on the keyboard. As expected, her keyboard playing was as spirited as her bass playing.

The next song was “Go Through the Night,” their popular tribute to Japanese math rock band Toe, one of the flagbearers of the genre from the early 2000s up to today.

“The acoustic guitar part is sampled from Toe. They’re our hero, and our first album Balance is mixed by their guitar player,” said Mr. Chang. Much of the crowd sang along to the memorable opening notes of the acoustic guitar and moved their bodies with enthusiasm as the band built on the sample.

MORE VARIETY
Elephant Gym closed out their live show in Manila with an eclectic mix of their songs, both relatively new and old.

The jazzy yet dissonant “Witches” kept heads bobbing. Meanwhile, the immensely popular “Finger” started off with a soft, catchy tune that the crowd sang along to, until the guitar riffs intensified and the drums sped up, causing people to headbang more fiercely.

As the song “Moonset” began playing, an audience member excitedly yelled out the title, a hilarious contrast to the mellow, jazzy rhythm that followed.

Then came the last two songs, “Ocean in the Night” and “Galaxy,” from their first album. The twinkly, complicated instrumentals along with the siblings’ vocal blending made for a wonderful conclusion to an energetic night, a showcase of Ms. Chang, Mr. Chang, and Mr. Tu’s technique and stage presence.

“We’re very thankful that you guys came here to experience all the emotions in our music,” Mr. Chang told the crowd.

While math rock is not that popular a genre (with local acts like Tom’s Story and tide/edit having a small niche among Filipino indie music lovers), it’s safe to say that Elephant Gym managed to carve out their own space within it.

As their name suggests, they provided compelling music driven by powerful bass lines and their love to play around as they please — and they successfully brought it to Manila for one night.

Meralco eyes 3 sites for micro-modular reactor deployment

MANILA Electric Co. (Meralco) is considering three areas for its pre-feasibility study to deploy micro-modular reactor (MMR) systems, a company official said.

In a briefing on Tuesday, Meralco Executive Vice-President and Chief Operating Officer Ronnie L. Aperocho said that most of the sites considered by the Department of Energy (DoE) are outside the company’s franchise areas.

“Because this is a Meralco undertaking, we want [the areas to be] within our franchise. So, we’re considering at least three sites but we just have to harmonize with [Undersecretary Sharon S. Garin],” he said.

The three areas under consideration are Talim Island in Laguna de Bay, municipality of San Rafael in Bulacan, and Isla de Provisor in Manila.

Last month, Meralco signed a deal with the US-based company Ultra Safe Nuclear Corp. (USNC) to study the potential deployment of one or more MMR systems in the Philippines.

Under the agreement, USNC will conduct a four-month pre-feasibility study to familiarize Meralco with MMR systems and their effective utilization in the country.

The pre-feasibility study, according to the distribution utility, will assess financial, technical, safety, siting requirements, and commercial viability, among other topics.

Meralco will then have the option to conduct a more detailed feasibility study focusing on the adoption and deployment of MMR energy systems.

According to USNC, the MMR energy system can “safely and reliably” provide up to 45 megawatts (MW) thermal of high-quality heat, delivered into a centralized heat storage unit.

One or more MMR nuclear batteries combine their heat in the heat storage unit, from which electric power or superheated steam can be extracted through conventional means to meet a wide range of power requirements, from tens to hundreds of MW.

Meanwhile, Mr. Aperocho said that they hope to send the company’s scholars by the time USNC starts building the MMR system at the University of Illinois for them to follow through the process.

“Our plan in terms of the scholarship program is by the time that the construction has started, let us say 2025, that’s the time that will send scholars and hopefully to the University of Illinois because they have a good scholarship program,” he said.

In September, Meralco formally launched its scholarship program that will support aspiring Filipino nuclear engineers under a two-year graduate program. The program is scheduled to run from 2025 to 2027.

Meralco is eyeing top global engineering universities, including the University of California in Berkeley, the University of Illinois, the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, the University of Ontario Institute of Technology, and Université Paris–Saclay, for the program.

The application process for the pilot batch of the program will open in 2024.

Meralco’s controlling stakeholder, Beacon Electric Asset Holdings, Inc., is partly owned by PLDT Inc.

Hastings Holdings, Inc., a unit of PLDT Beneficial Trust Fund subsidiary MediaQuest Holdings, Inc., has an interest in BusinessWorld through the Philippine Star Group, which it controls. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera

CIC’s rating system may boost lending, banks’ asset grade

LENDERS expect a recently introduced compliance rating system to boost banks’ lending and asset quality, and result in greater financial inclusion.

Last month, state-led Credit Information Corp. (CIC) issued a circular that will implement a Compliance Rating System to monitor the compliance of Submitting Entities in Production (SEPs).

Union Bank of the Philippines, Inc. (UnionBank) said in an e-mailed statement that the rating system boosts financial inclusion by “providing lenders with accurate credit information which is key in the credit decisioning process.” 

“The new guidelines ensure strict compliance of all submitting entities with the credit reporting requirements,”  the bank said, referring to the CIC circular titled “Implementing Guidelines for the Compliance of all Submitting Entities under the Credit Information System Act.”

CIC acts as a central credit registry of Filipinos’ credit information. Its new system will charge a Compliance Assistance Fee for SEPs that will cover the cost of providing technical support and enforcement. 

“With the banks’ increased knowledge of the customers’ credit history, it is assumed that credit assessment would be more thorough. This would lead to better asset quality and improved NPL (nonperforming loans),” China Banking Corp. (China Bank) Consumer Banking Segment Head Aloysius C. Alday, Jr. said in an e-mail.

UnionBank said lenders will be able to have better risk-adjusted returns and price loans better.

The banking industry’s gross NPL ratio went up to 3.44% in October from 3.4% in September and 3.41% in the same month last year, preliminary data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed.

The latest figure is also the highest bad loan ratio since 3.46% in May.

Meanwhile, bad loans rose by 9.2% year on year to P449.435 billion from P411.632 billion. Month on month, it inched up by 1.2% from P444.313 billion in September.

Mr. Alday said that while some banks might struggle with setting up data sharing, they are likely to benefit in the long term as overall lending will grow due to better know-your-customer (KYC) data.

Nonetheless, all banks will need to comply with CIC’s compliance rating system to cope with the increasing risks, especially for smaller lenders, UnionBank said.

“It is important to address the risks. Otherwise, smaller entities should evaluate their options, particularly limiting their offerings to simpler products or services to avoid the additional cost of compliance,” the Aboitiz-led bank said.

Outstanding loans by big banks rose by 7.1% to $11.3 trillion in October from $10.55 trillion a year earlier, BSP data showed.

This was faster than the 6.5% expansion in September, marking the fastest pace in bank lending growth in two months or since the 7.2% seen in August.

On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted basis, outstanding universal and commercial bank loans inched up by 1.4%.

“This compliance will result in each bank’s portfolio growth with facilitated credit assessment and better asset quality with the deeper knowledge of each loan customer,” Mr. Alday said.

“However, this will be limited to existing ‘banked’ customers who have existing records,” he noted.

To address this, CIC may use existing data shared by the banks to develop credit scoring for the unbanked. — Aaron Michael C. Sy

K-Pop star G-Dragon cleared of drug allegations

YGFAMILY.COM

SEOUL — K-Pop star G-Dragon has been cleared of allegations of illegal drug use by South Korean police, according to media reports.

Police had been investigating the singer and rapper, whose given name is Kwon Ji-yong, amid an ongoing crackdown on illegal drugs by the government of conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol.

On Tuesday, the Incheon Metropolitan Police decided not to charge the former leader of the K-pop band BIGBANG for alleged drug use after they had not obtained testimonies to support the charges against him, Yonhap News Agency reported.

Reuters could not immediately reach the police or G-Dragon for comment on Wednesday.

G-Dragon, a fashion muse and a writer of many hit songs, had strongly denied the allegations, showing up at a police station last month for questioning to prove his innocence.

In a sit-down interview with Yonhap News TV last month, the 35-year-old star again denied any illegal drug use. “I have never used drugs, received or given drugs from or to anyone,” he said, referring to negative drug test results.

A series of drug charge arrests, including of chaebol heirs and celebrities, has prompted authorities to vigorously pursue a crackdown on narcotics and increase customs inspections.

South Korea has tough drug laws, and crimes are typically punishable by at least six months in prison or up to 14 years for repeat offenders and dealers. — Reuters

AUB’s e-wallet HelloMoney expands to South Korea, Malaysia, and Hong Kong

ASIA UNITED Bank Corp. (AUB) has expanded the use of its e-wallet HelloMoney to South Korea, Malaysia, and Hong Kong, making the platform available in four countries or regions including Japan.

“We will continue to bring HelloMoney closer to more users to make mobile banking easier and for more merchants to help their business grow and thrive in the post-pandemic world,” said Wilfredo E. Rodriguez, Jr., AUB executive vice-president and head of operations and information technology, in a statement on Thursday.

“With Alipay+’s global presence through its integration with local merchants worldwide, our HelloMoney users will have a wider reach in payment acceptance while ensuring a safe and secure digital transaction,” he added.

The expansion into South Korea, Malaysia, and Hong Kong is powered by AUB’s partnership with Alipay+, along with several cross-border payments, and marketing and digitalization solutions operated by Ant International.

HoneyMonehy users may conduct transactions by scanning a Quick-Response (QR) code displayed in merchant stores abroad.

For South Korea, HelloMoney users can scan the ZeroPay QR, available in more than 1.7 million merchants nationwide.

In Malaysia, HelloMoney users can scan DuitNow QR, operated by PayNet, which is available in 1.8 million merchants.

Mr. Rodriguez said over the years, AUB has been building “a digital arsenal,” which he said includes “pioneering initiatives and innovations — from end-to-end digital account opening, to enabling clients to make banking easy through their mobile phone and merchants to sustain their businesses even with restricted mobility during the pandemic.”

HelloMoney was launched by AUB in 2019, as the bank looked to enable users to open an account without going to a physical branch and perform bank-to-bank fund transfers. 

Through the e-wallet, users may also buy prepaid load, remit money through PeraPadala, pay via QR code, settle bills, withdraw cash through ATM, and shop online using HelloMoney’s own virtual Mastercard.

“Members of state-owned Pag-IBIG Fund can also manage their account and perform banking transactions through the Pag-IBIG Loyalty Card Plus via HelloMoney,” AUB said.

As of end-October, HelloMoney transactions grew by 65% to 30 million from 19 million in the same period last year. This was equivalent to P115 billion, 82% higher than year-ago’s P63 billion.

AUB’s net income rose by 15.04% year on year to P1.95 billion in the third quarter amid continued core business expansion and lower provisions. — Aaron Michael C. Sy

NLEX Corp. inks P10-billion loan deal with BPI to support projects

PHILIPPINE STAR/ WALTER BOLLOZOS

NLEX Corp., a unit of Metro Pacific Tollways Corp. (MPTC), has entered into a 10-year term loan facility deal with the Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) amounting to P10 billion, the company announced on Thursday.

Proceeds from the loan will be used to fund ongoing and future projects, as well as partially fund capital expenditures (capex) and refinance other maturing debt, NLEX Corp. said in an e-mailed statement.

“This loan agreement will help us to meet our current obligations with our key stakeholders and finance all repairs and maintenance of the expressway as well as our ongoing and future projects like the Candaba 3rd Viaduct,” MPTC President and Chief Executive Officer Rogelio S. Singson said.

The NLEX Candaba third viaduct project is a new five-kilometer bridge in two existing viaducts between Pampanga and Bulacan.

The project currently has a progress rate of 30% and is expected to be completed by the fourth quarter of 2024.

The project is expected to increase the capacity of the Candaba viaduct to three lanes with inner and outer shoulders in each direction, NLEX Corp. said.

It is being implemented in partnership with Hong Kong-based Leighton Asia and is covered by the NLEX concession deal.

“This project is just one of our company’s major initiatives in solving the growing traffic demand of the north. In partnership with the government, we aim to contribute to elevating the transportation system of the country,” said Luigi L. Bautista, NLEX president and general manager.

For 2024, NLEX is allocating P15 billion for capex to support existing projects and other expansion plans, including the Candaba viaduct project, which has a project cost of P7.89 billion.

MPTC is the tollways unit of Metro Pacific Investments Corp., one of three key Philippine units of Hong Kong-based First Pacific Co. Ltd., the others being Philex Mining Corp. and PLDT Inc.

Hastings Holdings, Inc., a unit of PLDT Beneficial Trust Fund subsidiary MediaQuest Holdings, Inc., has a majority stake in BusinessWorld through the Philippine Star Group, which it controls. — Ashley Erika O. Jose

Grounds for cautiousness: Regional economic and financial stability

BW FILE PHOTO

(Second of two parts)

If there’s any big conglomerate that has been quite forthright with its cautious assessment of growth prospects in 2024, it must be the SM Group, represented by the vice-chair of the shopping mall and SM Investment Corp. (SMIC) Teresita Sy-Coson. Despite their phenomenal profitability courtesy of both BDO and SMIC, Ms. Coson opted for guarded optimism due to what she called spiking tension in the West Philippine Sea which all started in April 2012.

“Left to ourselves, we are going to do well but there are geopolitical tensions and climate change… I think our group assessment is we are going to be okay but we just have to be watchful.”

Of course, the SM Group’s concern over the West Philippine Sea row is focused on it being just another manifestation of the US-China geopolitical rivalry. This assessment is quite close to what we hear from Beijing. But already, China has been busy initiating what amounts to actual incursions into the Philippines. We read this from the academe, the broadsheets and social media, and these are all based on the Philippine Government’s official account of what is unfolding in the West Philippine Sea without very much calling it invasion.

If it’s a simple word war between these two remaining superpowers, it could be a protracted but perhaps less serious global concern. In all likelihood, we believe both parties do realize that it’s less costly that way while exacting their own pound of flesh from those directly or indirectly involved in the fray. Incremental incursions are less obvious but effective in territorial expansion. It’s more cost-effective to make noise than fire those missiles. But quietly, China has been defying the international court ruling on the West Philippine Sea by building their own infrastructure in Philippine territories and preventing, by using water cannons, the Philippines from securing its own legal territories.

And literally, China has been able to possess and keep those Philippine Islands and maritime zones regardless of world opinion by sheer military assertion. Under this scenario, the situation could be riskier because the impact could be more real than a simple word war. We don’t know if China is aware of its own constitution which stipulates in Article 5 that it “shall practice law-based governance and build a socialist state under the rule of law.”

AMRO REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
In the recent presentation of the AMRO Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) in Japan this month, it looks like everything seems to be normalizing. But in the concluding portions on the regional risk map, we notice that US-China geopolitical tension was cited as one of the risks. However, this is classified under medium-term imminence, something that should concern us not now but in the next two to five years, with a low level of likelihood.

Short-term risks include a spike in global commodity prices with a medium level of likelihood which may be concerning, as well as financial spillovers from tighter US monetary policy, slower economic recovery in China, and recession in US and Europe —all with a low level of likelihood.

In short, what is happening in the West Philippine Sea may be unique to the Philippines because it is our own territories that are being claimed and virtually annexed to China. If we contextualize the risks to the Philippines, are we not justified to consider it an immediate concern with a higher level of likelihood it would happen, and instead of a general euphemistic “US-China geopolitical tension” the risk could be one of aggression? If our small islands and our exclusive economic zone in the West Philippine Sea are considered part of the Middle Kingdom, what prevents anyone from including Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao?

In fact, AMRO’s assessment of risks for the Philippines simply reflects its own risk assessment for the region. Heightened geopolitical risks are listed as medium-term concern with low level of probability.

As for the rest of the ASEAN+3, the latest available data shows that, given those risks, the prognosis seems to have improved. The advanced economies continue to grow based on manufacturing and services. It is also encouraging to see both headline and core inflation in the US and Europe sustaining their downtrends. While China receives some boost from its fixed investment, industrial profits, and real consumer spending, its recovery is rather slow compared to expectations, particularly if the global economy remains more fragmented.

AMRO pins its hopes on the strength of domestic demand to sustain economic growth in the region. For instance, household spending has been holding due to strong employment conditions and rising household income. On the part of business, retail sales are improving as travel and tourism continue to recover.

AMRO cites S&P data and staff calculations to point out that the recovery in manufacturing in ASEAN+3 shows some softening in recent months. In Asia, the sectoral Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), especially in automobiles and auto parts as well as in industrial machinery, indicates a similar trend. Manufacturing activities are not getting more entrenched.

Exports appear to be looking up, with the rate of contraction slowing down. Some benefits may be forthcoming from the expected turnaround in the technology cycle and tourist business. This should be positive for the Philippines because exports of goods which account for nearly 18% of GDP had been declining in the first 10 months of the year.

Finally, if the US continues its monetary policy on a “higher for longer” path, and commodity prices spike again, exchange rate weakening in the region could only frustrate the moderating inflation trend. This is sobering, and this should make us more cautious in assessing economic prospects.

AMRO FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT
The AMRO Financial Stability Report (AFSR) runs along the same track.

It was correct for its inaugural issue this month to have pointed out that the global financial conditions “oscillated between tightening and easing, underpinned by shifting monetary policy stances by global central banks amid COVID-19 pandemic, higher inflation, and geopolitical events.” Liquidity stress continued to mount, especially in the US which was hit by some banking crisis.

It was unavoidable that the favorable conditions of low inflation and low interest rates should yield to the challenges of high inflation and high interest rates. As this regime got entrenched through 2023, the world’s economic regions have to grapple with the spillover effects. It is good that we are starting to see inflationary pressures ease, external buffers improve, and monetary policy and non-monetary measures deliver gradual price stability. The AFSR called this aspect of financial stability under multiple trials.

But the Report also likened us to drivers navigating in low visibility. More favorable inflation conditions may be forthcoming, but this is riddled by the uncertainties in the labor market, the lagged impact of previous inflationary situation, and the potential commodity price surges. It would be a tough act managing inflation, promoting economic growth, and safeguarding financial stability.

For many countries in the region, their next monetary policy stance could be largely anchored on what the US Fed might do in the near future. Decoupling is not feasible at this time because the world remains interlinked and connected. Therein lies another instance of low visibility.

A good analytical transition, this AFSR discussion of higher debt following an era of ample liquidity and pandemic funding needs. The pandemic made it imperative for governments across the region, and elsewhere, to extend monetary and fiscal stimulus measures. With practically zero growth, the official capacity to sustain public spending could only be achieved by higher borrowings.

And the numbers are very sobering.

The region’s total debt-to-GDP ratio, inclusive of corporate, household and public debt, peaked at 325% during the pandemic before declining to 299% at the end of 2022. As we wrote last week, it is true that AMRO’s stress tests show that fiscal sustainability and financial stability “may not exactly be in clear and present danger,” it is important for the authorities to realize that “if allowed to accumulate more, and at more rapid pace, the debt issue could graduate to the front and center of public policy concern.”

POLICY OPTIONS
We can be parsimonious in citing the policy recommendations of AMRO: ASEAN+3 central banks should prioritize the fight against inflation; regular liquidity facilities should be made available for banks; a wide range of macroprudential tools should be deployed to address various sources of risks from household and corporate debts including from property development; a medium-term fiscal consolidation plan embracing a possible fiscal rule and public debt management strategy to mitigate public debt; keeping banks’ leverage ratios to ensure stable financial intermediation and economic growth.

Yes, unique local factors may be more dominant in driving economic growth and financial stability, but in some instances, global and regional drivers could be more binding. Since these are mostly outside our control, there is always a room for us to keep watch and pray.

A blessed Christmas to all!

 

Diwa C. Guinigundo is the former deputy governor for the Monetary and Economics Sector, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). He served the BSP for 41 years. In 2001-2003, he was alternate executive director at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC. He is the senior pastor of the Fullness of Christ International Ministries in Mandaluyong.

‘Industrial peace’ achieved in 2023 — DoLE

PHILSTAR

THE Department of Labor and Employment (DoLE) said labor relations were generally peaceful this year, due to the quick resolution of disputes and the dearth of strikes.

Labor Secretary Bienvenido E. Laguesma told reporters that the disposition rate — the percentage of resolved cases — posted by the National Labor Relations Commission (NLRC) was about 90%.

Mr. Laguesma said that among the 207 labor disputes managed by the National Conciliation Mediation Board, only three deteriorated to strike action.

“Generally, we can say that we have industrial peace,” he said.

According to the NLRC accomplishment report as of October, which was released to media this week, the commission and its Regional Arbitration Branches (RABs) resolved 30,974 cases within the process cycle time of six to nine months. This translates to a 95% accomplishment rate, which exceeded the 82% overall target for the year.

Additionally, the report said Project SpeEd (Speedy and Efficient Delivery of Labor Justice), which seeks to efficiently resolve issues put forward by Philippine-based and migrant workers, RABs posted a 99% disposition rate in resolving 23,914 labor cases. The NLRC, on the other hand, reported a rate of 99.7% across 8,609 cases.

Regarding conciliation and mediation of labor disputes, the commission said in its report that it recorded 20,108 settlements as of October involving P2.69 billion, to the benefit of 26,420 workers.

The NLRC, an arm of the Labor department, is a quasi-judicial body tasked with resolving labor and management disputes, including those involving overseas workers.

Referring to the department’s 2023-2028 labor and employment plan, Mr. Laguesma said: “This plan is a tripartite document; it is not a government document alone,” citing DoLE’s intention to continue with the tripartite consultation approach.

He said DoLE received additional funding to implement programs focused on youth employment and additional assistance for vulnerable workers. — Jomel R. Paguian

Warner Bros. is in talks to merge with Paramount Global

WARNER BROS. Discovery, Inc. held talks on a possible merger with Paramount Global, potentially combining two of the biggest media companies in the world, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

The talks are preliminary and may not lead to an agreement, said one of the people, who asked not to be identified because the discussions are at such an early stage.

David Zaslav, chief executive officer of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc., met with Bob Bakish, his counterpart at Paramount Global, on Tuesday in New York to discuss a possible deal, Axios reported earlier. He has also spoken with Paramount Chair Shari Redstone, whose family company owns a controlling stake in Paramount, the owner of CBS and other television properties.

A combination of the companies would unite famous Hollywood properties, including the Paramount and Warner Bros. film and TV studios, and put a number of pay-TV and broadcast stations, such as HBO and CBS, under a single roof.

A merger of the two large media companies would likely face intense scrutiny by federal regulators who have challenged numerous combinations under the Biden administration. According to Axios, Warner Bros. executives say they could complete such a merger because their company doesn’t own a broadcast network like Paramount’s CBS.

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Both companies have struggled as consumers have canceled cable-TV subscriptions in favor of a new generation of streaming services. The streaming businesses are expensive to run, and haven’t made up for shrinking profits at traditional networks. Programming costs, especially for sports, have been escalating.

People familiar with Paramount’s thinking say the board has been more open to strategic alternatives, such as an alliance with another media giant, or even a sale to a private equity buyer or technology company.

Paramount has been selling noncore assets, such as its real estate and Simon & Schuster booking publishing business. Bloomberg News reported Wednesday that the company was once again holding talks about a sale of the Black Entertainment Television network, this time with a management-led group.

Paramount is controlled by the Redstone family, which owns a majority of the voting stock through National Amusements, a family holding company. Shari Redstone has also held discussions about a sale of her family’s stake in Paramount with film producer David Ellison and RedBird Capital Partners.

Warner Bros.’ Mr. Zaslav has shown a great appetite for deals, merging his Discovery cable networks with the Scripps channels and later acquiring Warner Media from AT&T, Inc. in a $43 billion merger.

The latter deal included tax benefits that bar Warner Bros. from doing new acquisitions until April 2024, two years after the AT&T transaction was completed. — Bloomberg

First Gen awards LNG contract to Total Energies

FIRST Gen Corp. has awarded a contract to TotalEnergies Gas & Power Asia Pte. Ltd. (TEGPA), a United Kingdom-based company, for the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargo to one of its subsidiaries, the company said on Thursday.

In a stock exchange disclosure, First Gen said that TEGPA would supply one LNG cargo of approximately 154,500 cubic meters with delivery scheduled for February next year to First Gen Singapore Pte. Ltd.

The LNG cargo to be provided by TEGPA will be delivered by an LNG carrier, which will unload the cargo into the storage tanks of the BW Batangas floating regasification storage unit (FSRU).

The BW Batangas serves as the FSRU for First Gen’s unit FGEN LNG Corp. and BW LNG, its Norwegian partner. The vessel will offer LNG storage and regasification services to First Gen’s existing and planned gas-fired power plants, as well as third-party terminal users.

The supply will be used by First Gen’s existing gas-fired power plants located at the First Gen Clean Energy Complex in Batangas City.

FGEN LNG has constructed its Interim Offshore LNG Terminal Project and executed a five-year Time Charter Party for the charter of the BW Batangas.

In September, First Gen stated that the LNG terminal is already in the commissioning process.

“The FGEN LNG Terminal will accelerate the ability to introduce LNG to the Philippines, to serve the natural gas requirements of existing and future gas-fired power plants of third parties and FGEN’s affiliates,” the company said.

At the local bourse on Thursday, shares of the company slid by P0.38 or 2.17% to close at P17.12 apiece. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera