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US Coast Guard says boardings of Chinese fishing vessels in South Pacific legal

 – The US Coast Guard has rejected comments by a Chinese diplomat that its recent boardings of Chinese fishing boats in the Pacific Islands alongside local police are illegal, saying the joint patrols are at the behest of Pacific nations to protect coastal fisheries.

Reuters reported last month that six Chinese fishing boats were found to be violating Vanuatu’s fisheries law after being inspected by local police who were on board the first U.S. Coast Guard boat to patrol the waters of the Pacific Islands nation.

China’s Ambassador to New Zealand Wang Xiaolong, in a letter circulated by the Chinese embassy on Friday, said the use of shiprider agreements between the US and Vanuatu, Kiribati and Papua New Guinea to “carry out law enforcement activities against China’s fishing vessels” was a violation of international law.

In the letter, Wang claimed the agreements are not binding on China’s fishing fleet.

“China is not obliged to accept the law enforcement of countries other than coastal states for fishing activities in their exclusive economic zones,” the letter said.

US Coast Guard Rear Admiral Michael Day on Wednesday said the Chinese ambassador’s statement was inaccurate and the bilateral shiprider agreements complied with international law.

“We do these boardings at the behest of those host nations who invite us to board, to work with them collaboratively in protecting their Exclusive Economic Zones,” he said at a press conference in Honolulu to mark the return of the US Coast Guard cutter Harriet Lane after its Pacific Islands patrol.

“A free and open Indo-Pacific is predicated upon the following of international rules and norms and laws, and I am happy to say the coast guard is complying with all international law and these are legal boardings.”

Commander Nicole Tesoniero said shiprider agreements with Samoa, Fiji, Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea had resulted in 23 boardings of fishing boats operating in the “far reaches of the respective countries’ exclusive economic zones”, with 12 violations found by local police.

“The targeting of vessels within the exclusive economic zones as well as the enforcement actions were all dictated by our partners,” she said.

In an interview in Sydney, Admiral John Aquilino, Commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, said China’s fishing fleet in the South Pacific should be viewed as a “maritime militia”, based on its activities in the South China Sea and East China Sea.

“Those fishing vessels are the maritime militia,” Mr. Aquilino said.

“If it were to get to a time or place where we have a crisis, and you look at Scarborough Shoal or the Senkakus, those fishing vessels are fishing and then they will take on a mission of pressurizing the host nation or the nation whose exclusive economic zone they are operating in,” he said.

In the letter, Ambassador Wang said China exercised strict supervision over its distant water fishing fleets, had “a zero tolerance attitude towards illegal fishing”, and respected the sovereign rights of coastal states.

The US Coast Guard patrols come after Vanuatu and Solomon Islands, Pacific Island nations with close ties to China, blocked a US Coast Guard vessel from coming to port to refuel in 2022 and 2023 as it undertook a patrol for illegal fishing on behalf of the Pacific Islands Forum regional block.

Australia, New Zealand and Britain have also stepped up navy patrols for illegal fishing in partnership with Pacific Islands nations, many of whom do not have militaries or boats to monitor coastal waters and exclusive economic zones spanning millions of kilometers. – Reuters

Philippines president says trilateral summit with US, Japan to include South China Sea cooperation

PHILEMBASSY.NO

 – The upcoming trilateral summit between the United States, Philippines and Japan will include an agreement to maintain security and freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said on Wednesday.

Mr. Marcos is set to leave for Washington on Wednesday afternoon for talks with US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

“(The summit) will contain more details in the sense of how cooperation will be implemented,” Mr. Marcos told reporters.

Mr. Marcos is also set to hold a bilateral meeting with Biden ahead of the meeting among the three leaders.

The Philippines under Marcos has deepened military ties with both the United States and Japan as maritime run-ins with China in the South China Sea have escalated.

Mr. Marcos has allowed to nearly double Philippine bases American soldiers can access, and talks are underway with Japan for a reciprocal access agreement that will allow the presence of Japanese forces on Philippine soil.

At the same time, Mr. Marcos has also denied the existence of a so-called “gentleman’s agreement” reportedly struck under predecessor Rodrigo Duterte with Beijing to keep the status quo in Second Thomas Shoal, a disputed maritime feature in the South China Sea.

A spokesperson for former president Duterte confirmed last month that such an agreement was made, but Marcos said there are no records of the deal.

“I am horrified by the idea that we have compromised through a secret agreement the territory, the sovereignty and the sovereign rights of the Philippines,” Mr. Marcos said.

China claims almost the entire South China Sea, overlapping with territorial claims of the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei.

In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague said China’s claims had no legal basis, a decision Beijing has rejected.” – Reuters

Analysts see room for rate cut delay

The government last week tempered its growth target for the year from the previous 6.5-7.5% target amid continued global headwinds, high oil prices and inflation trends. Photo shows a vendor arranging slip fans for sale in Baclaran market, April 5. — PHILIPPINE STAR/RYAN BALDEMOR

By Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson, Reporter

THE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) still has room to delay monetary easing, analysts said, noting the Philippine economy can still withstand “higher-for-longer” interest rates.

“The economy is strong enough to withstand the current policy rate of the BSP at 6.5%. It would be useful if we see the banks doing less pro-cyclical lending operations to help avoid a convergence between the business and financial cycles as well as lower credit and economic growth,” GlobalSource country analyst Diwa C. Guinigundo said in a Viber message.

The Monetary Board on Monday stood pat for a fourth straight meeting, keeping its benchmark rate at a near 17-year high 6.5%.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. has said that upside risks to inflation have “become worse,” prompting the central bank to be “somewhat more hawkish than before.”

Rate cuts would only be considered if inflation continues on the downtrend and if economic growth turns out weaker than expected, he added.

HSBC economist for ASEAN Aris D. Dacanay in a report said that the BSP has room to keep its policy rate tighter for longer.

“With growth in the Philippines very resilient, the BSP, in our view, can afford to delay its first rate cut if it needs to support the peso or to cool inflation further,” he said.

The BSP chief said that it could potentially cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) in the third quarter if inflation is within target and economic growth is weak. However, he warned that monetary easing could start as late as the first quarter of 2025 if inflation risks persist.

“I am for the BSP’s sustained patience because we have seen in the past how high inflation could also subvert economic growth through lower consumption and investment, and undermine purchasing power especially of the bottom 30% of our population,” Mr. Guinigundo said.

Mr. Remolona also said that previous rate increases have weighed on domestic demand and have a lagged effect on the economy.

The Philippines’ gross domestic product (GDP) settled at 5.5% last year, slower than the 7.6% expansion in 2022 and falling short of the government’s 6-7% target.

Mr. Remolona said that GDP growth may average 5.9% this year, a tad lower than the government’s revised 6-7% target for 2024.

“While growth is threatened, the policy does not necessarily have to limit growth. The critical factor is how both private and public sectors will respond to the policy,” Ateneo de Manila economics professor Leonardo A. Lanzona said in an e-mail.

“In a way, the BSP is disciplining the government to use whatever resources it has more productively so that it pushes the economy towards greater output, not just in agriculture but all other sectors,” he added.

Mr. Lanzona said controlling inflationary expectations “stifles aggregate demand, forcing both private and public expenditures to remain low.”

CRUCIAL Q1 GDP DATA
Makoto Tsuchiya, economist from Oxford Economics, said that the results of first-quarter GDP data will be crucial to the BSP’s decision whether to extend its pause or not.

“If domestic demand holds up well or the country’s electronics sector benefits from the AI chip boom more than we expect, this will give BSP room to remain patient until the third quarter to start the rate cutting cycle,” he said in a commentary.

First-quarter GDP data is set to be released on May 9.

Pantheon Macroeconomics said there is a potential for rate cuts even before the third quarter amid expected weaker growth.

“(Mr. Remolona) also suggested that activity would have to disappoint markedly for any pre-third quarter cuts to enter the fray. Needless to say, we think such a downside surprise is inevitable, with our 2024 growth forecast at 4.6%,” it said in its Emerging Asia Economic Monitor.

“Domestic demand is still weakening year over year, and momentum has been non-existent at best since the start of 2024,” it added.

Jonathan L. Ravelas, senior adviser at professional service firm Reyes Tacandong & Co., said there may be a chance the BSP will not cut at all this year amid persistent inflation.

“With upside risks to inflation remaining, likely the BSP will keep rates higher for a bit longer. I am looking at best two cuts this year. But if inflation remains sticky on El Niño concerns, I would not be surprised if the BSP will not cut at all,” he added.

The BSP raised its risk-adjusted and baseline inflation forecasts this year to 4% and 3.8%, respectively, from 3.9% and 3.6% earlier.

Mr. Guinigundo said it may be too soon for the BSP to begin cutting rates by the third quarter.

“We are not surprised, as we have written before, cutting rates is too early by June, while a reduction in the third quarter might even be optimistic given all the red flags we continue to see today,” he said.

“Given upside domestic inflation risks as well as chances that the US Fed might delay its easing cycle, the risk for BSP is tilted to a later start of the rate cuts,” Mr. Tsuchiya added.

Bank of America Global Research said inflation may average above 4% in the second quarter, which could prevent it from cutting rates in June.

“We now think the BSP will cut its policy rate no sooner than August 2024 and cut further in October and December, totaling 75 bps,” it said in a report.

ANZ Research said it expects the central bank to adopt a wait-and-see approach until economic data “turns favorable for a rate cut.”

“Consumption credit continues to grow at a double-digit pace, which shows the resilience of the Filipino households despite the sharp rise in interest rates,” it added.

Mr. Dacanay said inflation may breach the central bank’s 2-4% target until August this year before returning to target, which would then give it the chance to loosen monetary reins.

“Our base case scenario is for the BSP to cut rates by 25 bps to 6.25% in the third quarter of 2024, and then by 50 bps to 5.75% in the fourth quarter of 2024,” he added.

Exports likely to miss PEDP targets in 2024

Philippine exports will likely miss the target set under the export development plan this year. — PHILIPPINE STAR/EDD GUMBAN

By Justine Irish D. Tabile, Reporter

PHILIPPINE EXPORTS will likely miss this year’s target under the Philippine Export Development Plan (PEDP), according to the exporters organization and the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI).

Bianca Pearl R. Sykimte, director of the DTI-Export Marketing Bureau, said the department remains optimistic about exports growth, even if it falls short of the $143.4-billion target set under the PEDP.

“We are optimistic that we will exceed the Philippine Development Plan (PDP) target of $107 billion this year, but it will be extremely difficult to reach the PEDP target of more than $140 billion. We will need to recalibrate,” Ms. Sykimte told BusinessWorld in a Viber message.

Total exports under the PDP are expected to reach $107 billion this year, comprising of $61.58 billion in merchandise exports and $45.42 billion in services exports.

Last year, Philippine exports only amounted to $103.6 billion, well below the $126.8-billion goal under the PEDP. It also failed to hit the 5% growth target set by the DTI last year.

In a separate interview, Sergio R. Ortiz-Luis, Jr., president of the Philippine Exporters Confederation, Inc., said that the PEDP is undergoing continuous recalibration.

“What we are doing now is that, on a yearly basis, we look at the trend to see if it is going up. But we think that the almost $145-billion target could instead be met in 3 years,” he said in a mix of English and Filipino.

“Well, maybe in two years we also can, but it is impossible to do it in one year. Because, as it has been said before, to be able to beat that, we’ll have to grow 40%,” he added.

Earlier this year, Philexport and the DTI said that they are targeting up to a 10% increase in exports in 2024. If realized, this would exceed the $107-billion export value target under the PDP.

Asked about the growth drivers, Ms. Sykimte said: “We’re expecting recovery in semiconductor exports, lower global inflation, continued recovery in tourism and sustained demand in IT-BPM (information technology and business process management) to drive exports this year.”

“This would be higher than the 4.8% increase last year and could be driven again by services, especially tourism, as well as improvements in the regulation for mining and exports of some agricultural products, which increased last year,” Mr. Ortiz-Luis said.

Preliminary data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed that services exports increased by 17.4% to $48.29 billion in 2023.

Broken down, exports of travel services more than doubled to $9.11 billion in 2023, while exports of telecommunications, computer, and information services rose 6.4% to $7.1 billion.

BSP data also showed fruit and vegetable exports grew by 3.4% to $2.27 billion, making it the only commodity group to register export growth in 2023.

Ms. Sykimte said that the decline in merchandise exports was due to the decrease in electronics and coconut exports, reflecting global trends.

On potential risks to the outlook, Mr. Ortiz-Luis cited geopolitical issues that affect shipping, prices, and the supply chain.

“Aside from these, there are also issues between China and the US, particularly the trade war, so that may affect our projections for our trade with China,” he added.

The DTI and Philexport said free trade agreements (FTAs) will help spur more trade and increase exports.

“We are also optimistic that the pending implementation of the Philippines-Korea FTA this year will have positive impact to our exports, given that Korea is among our top 10 export markets,” Ms. Sykimte said.

Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed that South Korea is the country’s fifth biggest export market in 2023, accounting for $3.53 billion or 4.8% of the total exports.

Last month, the DTI said the Philippine Senate is expected to ratify the country’s FTA with South Korea by mid-year.

“These agreements help. Because, as you will see, we only have a small number of agreements compared to other countries like Thailand which has 13 or 14. So how will we be able to compete with them,” Mr. Ortiz-Luis said.

However, he said that the Philippines must do something to ensure that the exporters are able to utilize these free trade deals and avail of duty exemption.

“For instance, our garments and wearables exports can’t utilize the benefits under GSP+ (Generalized Scheme of Preferences Plus) because there are issues with rules of origin,” he said.

“We don’t have a textile industry, so what we do is import all the textiles we use, mostly from China, and so our products can’t enter because they have issues with China,” he added.

Under the GSP+, Philippine garments that enter the European Union (EU) are duty-free, but because of the EU’s strict rules of origin, Philippine garments that use imported fabric do not qualify for zero duty.

The country participates in the EU’s GSP+, which is a special incentive arrangement for low- and lower-middle-income countries. It charges zero duty on 6,274 Philippine-made products.

Last month, the EU and the Philippines formally resumed FTA negotiations, seven years after it was stalled due to concerns over the human rights record of then President Rodrigo R. Duterte.

Asia’s new Quad told to step up economic game beyond security

Philippine Coast Guard personnel documents a Chinese Coast Guard vessel shadowing the Philippines’ resupply mission at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, March 5, 2024. — REUTERS

By Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza, Reporter

THE Philippines, United States, Japan and Australia need a stronger economic message and should boost their ties beyond defense and security to sustain their partnership amid an increasingly belligerent China, according to analysts.

The Philippine-US-Japan-Australia “Quadrilateral” is still in its infancy, but it has the potential to develop into a more formal “minilateral” grouping, said Jeffrey Ordaniel, director for maritime security at the Pacific Forum and an associate professor of international security studies at the Tokyo International University.

The four nations may have to bring tangible benefits to the Indo-Pacific region including economic prosperity through trade, and start initiatives in infrastructure investment, regional supply chain connectivity and energy security for their ties to be meaningful and believable.

Mr. Ordaniel said the emergence of several minilateral groups in the Indo-Pacific region, such as the possible new Quad, was due to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ (ASEAN) “inability to manage geopolitical and security challenges involving China and the US.”

“ASEAN’s consensus-based approach is inhibiting meaningful actions on issues such as the South China Sea,” Mr. Ordaniel said.

The US, Japan, Australia and the Philippines last year started a quadrilateral security dialogue in the face of an aggressive China, which claims the South China Sea almost in its entirety.

The four allies, especially the US, have also expressed concern over China’s aggression toward Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a renegade province.

“These are some of the largest economies in the region and if they get their act together, they can have a strong impact,” Joseph Herman S. Kraft, former chairman of the University of the Philippines Political Science Department, said in a Viber message.

The US and China have been locked in a trade war since 2018, when former President Donald J. Trump slapped investment controls and tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of Chinese products due mainly to alleged unfair trade practices by Beijing.

US President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. who is running for his last reelection, has kept the tariffs and imposed more restrictions. He has called the US-China conflict “a battle between the utility of democracies in the 21st century and autocracies.”

The US has been at the forefront of international condemnation of China’s intrusions into the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines, a much smaller nation that has been seeking more economic and security partnerships.

“The US is the largest economy in the world, but it is beset by a growing domestic preference to be less internationally engaged,” Mr. Kraft said.

“Yet, within the region, increased access to markets is the preferred economic direction,” he said. “Unless the US goes in a different direction, the economic prospect of this new Quad is going to be limited compared to what China brings to the table.”

Last month, a high-level delegation of US companies led by Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo pledged to invest $1 billion in the Philippines spanning electric vehicles, digitalization and green energy.

The Philippines is rich in critical minerals that “are more important than ever,” Ms. Raimondo said as she cited a US plan to double the number of semiconductor factories in the Southeast Asian nation.

Despite China’s show of force at sea, its economy seems to be in shambles. Forecasts from the International Monetary Fund showed its growth will slow to 4.6% this year from an estimated 5.4% last year.

China’s economic growth last year was driven by the resilience of its high-tech and service sectors, “while challenges came from declining property investment, debt risk and weak consumption growth,” according to the East Asia Forum.

“The fear is that China’s economic challenges may actually accelerate its expansionist agenda,” Raymond M. Powell, a fellow at Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, said in an X message. “Beijing may sense that its window of opportunity for bold action will start to close once its fiscal and demographic problems really start to bite.”

Tensions between the Philippines and China have worsened in the past year as Beijing continues to block Manila’s resupply missions at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea using water cannons.

A Chinese envoy said in January relations between the two countries were at a crossroads.

The Philippines in November scrapped a $4.9-billion funding deal with China, the world’s second-biggest economy, for three rail projects after Beijing failed to respond to funding requests.

China was the largest source of Philippine imports last year at $29.38 billion. It was followed by Indonesia ($11.51 billion), Japan ($10.26 billion), South Korea ($8.48 billion) and the US ($8.41 billion).

But the US was the largest destination of Philippine products at $11.54 billion or 15.7% of the country’s exports. It was followed by China ($10.86 billion), Japan ($10.45 billion), Hong Kong ($8.84 billion) and South Korea ($3.53 billion).

The Philippines’ total trade with Australia hit $4.06 billion, exporting $561.8 million of Philippine products and importing $3.497 billion of Australian goods.

The US, Japan and Australia are “more than enough to fill the void left by China, including projects that may be canceled in the event of worsening relations with Beijing over the West Philippine Sea,” Terry L. Ridon, a public investment analyst, said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

“Tokyo is our largest official development assistance partner, with its aid agency involved in the most important infrastructure projects such as the Metro Manila Subway,” he pointed out.

‘CLOSER TO REALITY’
Mr. Marcos flew to Melbourne last March 3 for a three-day special summit between Australia and ASEAN, days after a state visit to Canberra where he told Australia’s Parliament that the Philippines is on the frontline of a battle for regional peace.

The Philippine leader at the special summit on March 6 said his country hopes to benefit from Australia’s pivot to Southeast Asia, which he described is an important growth driver in the Indo-Pacific region.

The Philippines and Australia transformed their relationship into a strategic partnership in September 2023, and a month later, the Southeast Asian nation and Japan committed to quicken their talks for a status of forces of agreement.

“The Strategic Partnership agreement in September last year reflected the growing relations between Australia and the Philippines,” Aushaz Irfan, an intelligence analyst at United Kingdom-based risk management firm Healix, said in an e-mail. “It notably comes amid Australia’s recent push for a more focused foreign policy approach toward Southeast Asia.”

He expects the two countries to boost ties in emerging technologies and digital industries.

Mr. Irfan noted that Japan’s foreign policy approach to Southeast Asia has changed in recent years, resulting in increased maritime and infrastructure cooperation with the Philippines.

“The quadrilateral dialogue is here to stay, and it’s geared toward deterring China’s revisionist goals and calibrating net security goals so that countries might contribute to the developmental goals of the rules-based order,” Joshua Bernard B. Espeña, vice-president at the Manila-based International Security and Development Center, said via Messenger chat.

The four nations recently held joint military drills within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea.

China likely sees the new grouping as a threat, which could mean “more vessel harassment, diplomatic slurs, disinformation warfare and soon economic sticks like sanctions over the balance of trade.”

“Nevertheless, this might result in more action-reaction chains between them until the other capitulates,” he said. The Philippines needs more than a dialogue soon — “a workable coalition to collectively deter China’s revisionist goals,” he added.

Mr. Espeña said the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) is still in a grueling stage of implementation. “Working within a minilateral trading bloc across goods, services, intellectual property, investments, research and development might be the way forward to make the counter-narrative against China closer to reality.”

He urged the security grouping to boost intelligence exchange and pursue a counter-narrative campaign as Beijing is likely to work with their citizens and business elites to dissuade Quad members from mobilizing their economies for a stronger collective security posture.

Mr. Marcos, Mr. Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are set to meet on April 11 for their first-ever three-way summit, where they will discuss ways to advance their economic and climate goals, apart from keeping peace in the Indo-Pacific region and around the world.

While many have welcomed the summit, some have raised questions on the future of the emerging Quad.

“Where is Quad?” former Japanese envoy to Canberra Shingo Yamagami asked in an X post, citing a vow by Australian Prime Minister Antony Albanese in May 2022 that his country’s commitment to the four-way grouping would not change.

“We need to keep on pedaling the bicycle of Quad.”

China last month dropped tariffs on Australian wine, a decision Canberra said validates its “calm and consistent approach” with Beijing on a series of trade disputes.

Mr. Ordaniel expects the Philippines to keep its security cooperation with the US, Japan and Australia beyond the Marcos administration.

“Geopolitical and security realities are hard to ignore that even a leader like Rodrigo R. Duterte would find it hard to justify more accommodation of China at the obvious expense of the Philippines’ long-term interest.”

Budget deficit projected to narrow further this year

BW FILE PHOTO

THE National Government’s (NG) fiscal deficit is seen to narrow further this year as revenue collections are likely to exceed targets, Fitch Solutions’ unit BMI said.

“We forecast the Philippine budget deficit to narrow from 6.2% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023 to 5.5% in 2024,” BMI said in a commentary.

“This narrowing would mark the third consecutive year the budget shortfall shrinks, a reflection of the current administration’s push for fiscal consolidation,” it added.

The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) last week revised the deficit ceiling this year to P1.48 trillion, equivalent to 5.6% of GDP. This was slightly higher than the previous P1.39-trillion ceiling, equivalent to 5.1% of GDP.

By 2028, the deficit-to-GDP ratio is seen settling at 3.7% from 3% previously.

As of end-2023, the deficit as a share of GDP stood at 6.2%, a tad higher than the 6.1% target set by the government but lower than the 7.3% ratio at end-2022.

BMI said this outlook is driven by the government’s revenue collection performance.

“Revenue collection will likely overshoot target in 2024 as efforts to broaden the tax base gain traction,” it said.

This year, the DBCC expects revenues to hit P4.27 trillion or 16.1% of GDP. 

Latest data from the Bureau of the Treasury showed that the NG’s budget balance in the first two months of the year widened by 26.56% to P76.7 billion, as revenues jumped by 15.32% to P645.8 billion.

“We think that this trend will continue over the coming years as policies targeted to broaden the tax base feed through. Newly appointed Finance Chief Ralph G. Recto pledged to sustain these efforts. We think revenue collection will amount to around 16.3% of GDP by the end of 2028,” it added.

Mr. Recto has said that he does not plan to introduce new tax proposals, but instead focus on improving tax collection and administration to generate revenues. However, he is pushing for the passage of pending tax reforms in Congress such as the rationalization of the mining fiscal regime and excise tax on single-use plastics, among others.

BMI said robust economic growth will help drive revenue collection higher this year.

“An improving macroeconomic backdrop will boost public coffers. Growth came in at (5.5%) in 2023. While this will be undoubtedly a strong performance for any other economies in the region, it is disappointing by Philippine standards,” it said.

“From 2015-2019, the economy expanded by an average of at a pace of 6.6%. 2024 looks set to be a better year. We forecast real GDP to accelerate to 6.2% in 2024. In particular, the resilience in private consumption will boost revenue collection,” it added.

Last week, the government narrowed its 2024 growth target range to 6-7% from 6.5-7.5% previously.

First-quarter GDP data is set to be released on May 9. 

Meanwhile, BMI said that the government is “actively maintaining spending within its targeted expenditure limits.”

“We predict that disbursements will make up 21.5% of GDP, which is slightly lower than the 22.0% recorded last year,” it said.

“Looking ahead, we project that, until the end of President Marcos’ term in 2028, expenditure as a percentage of GDP will average 20.2%,” it added.

Latest DBCC data showed that the government projects disbursements to hit P5.75 trillion this year, equivalent to 21.7% of GDP.

The Marcos administration aims to spend 5-6% of GDP annually on infrastructure.

“Enhancing the infrastructure framework is crucial for the current administration’s ambitious goal of positioning the Philippines as a leading destination for foreign investment,” BMI said.

Infrastructure spending rose by 18.7% year on year to P1.2 trillion in 2023, surpassing its P1.04-trillion program for the year. This was also equivalent to 5.8% of GDP.

In the coming years, BMI expects the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio to further ease.

“We forecast a decline in the debt ratio to 52% by 2028,” it added.

The NG’s debt as a share of GDP eased to 60.2% in end-2023. This was lower than the 60.9% at the end of 2022 and below the 61.2% government target.

However, it was still slightly above the 60% threshold considered by multilateral lenders to be manageable for developing economies.

Latest Treasury data showed outstanding debt hit a fresh high of P15.18 trillion as of end-February. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

San Miguel, Metro Pacific pitch water, hydropower projects — DENR

PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS

THE Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) said San Miguel Corp., Metro Pacific Investments Corp. (MPIC), and Manila Water Co., Inc. have submitted proposals for bulk water supply and hydropower projects.

“Last December, we opened opportunities for investments. I am now in receipt of proposals, and they come from the biggest companies here locally. They have submitted letters of interest,” Environment Undersecretary Carlos Primo C. David said on the sidelines of the Israel-Philippines Water Technology Forum last week.

He said the DENR has received 88 proposals from different companies, six of which are major companies in the Philippines.

“Fast forward to today, we offer 247 projects — bulk water projects for public-private partnership (PPP). At this point in time, I have received proposals from various companies like San Miguel, Manila Water, and Metro Pacific, and now we are working on having these projects materialized,” Mr. David added.

BusinessWorld reached out to the identified companies but did not to receive a response by the deadline.

The projects aim to increase water supply while also tapping the potential of hydropower projects, the department said.

Mr. David previously said that 40% of the country’s population still does not have a formal water supply.

“To provide water to the 40%, we need P250 billion,” he said in an interview.

Data provided by the DENR shows that about 247 water projects are available for PPP, comprising bulk water supply projects and hydropower projects with a total capacity of 500 megawatts.

Mr. David also mentioned the inclusion of the Cavite bulk water supply project in these initiatives, saying that the government intends to bid out the contract for this project within the year.

At the same time, he said that the National Irrigation Administration is expediting the construction of eight multipurpose dams to provide water supply and generate power.

These projects include the Jalaur River Multipurpose Project Phase 2, Tumauini River Multipurpose Project, Maringalo Dam Irrigation Project Phase 2, Ilocos Norte-Ilocos Sur-Abra Irrigation Project, Upper Banaong Irrigation Project, Mabini Agricultural Development Project, Balintingon Irrigation Project, and Panay River Basin Integrated Development Project.

Collectively, these eight multipurpose projects have a capacity of approximately 416 million liters per day and are designed to produce both hydropower and solar power.

MPIC is one of the three key Philippine units of Hong Kong-based First Pacific Co. Ltd., the others being Philex Mining Corp. and PLDT Inc.

Hastings Holdings, Inc., a unit of PLDT Beneficial Trust Fund subsidiary MediaQuest Holdings, Inc., has a majority share in BusinessWorld through the Philippine Star Group, which it controls. — Ashley Erika O. Jose

Converge CEO sees delay in subsea cable projects

LISTED fiber internet service provider Converge ICT Solutions, Inc. said it expects delays in completing its international subsea cable projects.

“Imagine each country, you need to get some permits. It depends on the area, especially when you are passing Indonesian waters. It is not easy to get access to Indonesia,”  Converge Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Dennis Anthony H. Uy told reporters last week.

“There is a bit of delay but the Davao to Singapore, there is a possibility that we will finish this year,” he added.

The fiber provider allocated the majority of its P17-billion to P19-billion capital expenditure budget in 2024 for the two international subsea cable systems initially aimed for completion this year.

These include the Bifrost Cable System and the Asia Pacific Southeast Asia-Hainan-Hongkong Express (SEA-H2X) Submarine Cable System.

Bifrost is a transpacific cable system linking Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, Guam, and the west coast of the United States. It spans 15,000 kilometers and boasts a design capacity of up to 15 terabits per second (Tbps).

Meanwhile, SEA-H2X is a 5,000-kilometer submarine cable system connecting Hong Kong SAR China, Hainan China, the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore. It features a design capacity of 160 Tbps.

The projects are designed to meet the increasing demand for digital connectivity in the region and establish an essential, direct connection to North America.

“Worst case (scenario is the) first quarter next year. It could be late this year or early next year,” Converge Chief Operations Officer Jesus C. Romero said in a separate interview.

 “There are certain things you can’t control like weather conditions, but the laying is ongoing,” he added.

In 2023, Converge saw a 22.3% growth in its net income to P9.1 billion as consolidated revenues jumped by 5% to P35.4 billion.

 Residential revenues increased by 3% to P30.28 billion from P29.46 billion in 2022 as full-year net additional subscribers rose 35% to 250,691.

 The internet provider closed 2023 with 2,128,052 subscribers, comprising of 2,013,216 postpaid subscribers and 114,836 prepaid subscribers.

 Converge shares were last traded on April 8 at P9.50 apiece. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

Philippine Book Festival: Making more Filipino readers

BACK for its second year is the Philippine Book Festival (PBF). The festival’s return will take place on April 25 to 28 at the World Trade Center in Pasay City, and is set to bring together authors, artists, publishers, educators, and readers.

This time, it aims to showcase the richness of Philippine literature through 160 exhibitors, an extensive collection of books, and a diverse range of talks and workshops.

“The challenge is making people aware of what books are available. This is something we saw in our national readership survey. Although there is a concerning outcome saying that there is a dramatic drop in readership, one of the reasons people are saying that is because they lack access,” said Dante Francis M. Ang, chairman of the National Book Development Board (NBDB). These concerns led to the PBF last year.

“It was a dynamic gathering of publishing professionals, educators, families, students, and creatives. This year, fairgoers can expect much of the same exciting programming except with a much bigger scope,” Mr. Ang said at festival’s press conference on April 3 in Makati City.

The program lineup includes book signing and meet-and-greet sessions with authors like Gwy Saludes, Ambeth Ocampo, and Ricky Lee. “Dahling Nick: A Tribute to National Artist Nick Joaquin” will honor the renowned writer.

Meanwhile, a session called “Aklat Para Sa Accla: New Trends in Boys Love and Girls Love” will be dedicated to modern gay and lesbian romance fiction. Many workshops are also in store, like Patti Ramos’ zine-making workshop and Bunny Luz’s workshop on crafting independently produced “fanzines.”

Mr. Ang said that the event is meant to cover all bases: “The PBF is a program that, on the one hand, is about celebrating Philippine culture, but on the other hand, encompasses our agency’s long-term plans: improve access for every Filipino reader, democratize distribution, and enable our publishers and authors to keep producing Philippine books.”

The National Library’s Rare Book Collection will feature a new selection of rare manuscripts and facsimiles while the Book Bar will focus on award-winning books. Cosplay Filipiniana will invite fans to dress up as their beloved Philippine literary characters while Guhit Pambata will highlight the works of children’s book illustrators.

Four sections divide the festival: Kid Lit, just for children; Komiks, placing the spotlight on Pinoy komiks; Booktopia, where one can find both fiction and non-fiction titles; and Aral Aklat, devoted to textbooks and educational materials.

Panels, puppet shows, storytelling with surprise television and movie celebrities, and live performances are also scheduled throughout the four-day festival.

On bringing the PBF to other parts of the country, Mr. Ang said that last year’s Davao leg could not be replicated this time due to NBDB being “one of the smallest agencies of the government,” making resources a challenge.

LOCAL AND FOREIGN READERSHIP
Charisse Aquino-Tugade, NBDB executive director, said at the press conference that the recent readership survey found that only 42% out of 2,400 Filipino adults have read a book in the last year.

A similar figure arose when 2,400 children across the country were surveyed, with only 46% saying yes.

“We also asked, ‘when was the last time you went to the library?’ and most people said they don’t even know where their local library is. Other choices to compete with are scrolling on phones, going to the mall,” she added.

Book Nook, one of NBDB’s programs, has been established in 100 sites around the Philippines, from remote villages in Ifugao all the way to Tawi-Tawi in Mindanao. There, the books vary in language depending on the region, to allow children in the various areas easy access to local literature.

This year, a Book Nook will also be launched in Daly City, San Francisco, California, which boasts the most concentrated population of Filipinos abroad.

“Our kids, besides lacking ready access to quality books, are not reading their own stories in their languages,” Ms. Aquino-Tugade said. “If we don’t provide a platform for our children to learn about themselves and the world they live in, they will grow up in environments shaped solely by other voices.”

This is also why the Department of Education is sending over 750 book evaluators and procurement officers from all over the country to the PBF, so they can scope and evaluate books to purchase for public school libraries.

“These teachers need a place to see these books because we don’t see them in stores. Many of our books are relegated to one Filipiniana section,” said Ms. Aquino-Tugade.

“We also tapped the event managers who are already doing this, which is Prime Trade, the ones behind the Manila International Book Fair. We’re not competitors. What we’re trying to do is create a robust market,” she added.

Mr. Ang also emphasized the Philippines’ upcoming endeavor as the Guest of Honor at the 2025 Frankfurt Book Fair, also known as “the Olympics of books.”

“It’s the largest rights-selling event in the world, but it’s also a place where publishers and other creatives get together. We’re in the midst of preparing for that. There are a lot of possible economic returns for this,” he explained.

If all goes well, the NBDB will be able to raise the flag for Philippine publishers seeking to have their books translated in other languages and distributed abroad.

In the meantime, the PBF will be gunning to improve readership locally. The fair will be free and open to the public from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. on April 25 to 28. For more information on the Philippine Book Festival and to register for free, visit www.philippinebookfest.com. — Brontë H. Lacsamana

NGCP awaits TRO lift for Hermosa-San Jose transmission

NGCP.PH

THE National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) said it expects that the temporary restraining order (TRO) against a portion of the Hermosa-San Jose 500-kilovolt (kV) transmission line would be lifted to facilitate its full completion.

“We’re really hoping that the TRO is lifted soon so there would be no problem for us,” NGCP Spokesperson Cynthia P. Alabanza told reporters in a recent interview in mixed English and Filipino.

The Supreme Court has issued a TRO against the expropriation and construction on a portion of the transmission line owned by PHirst Park Homes, Inc.

The  Hermosa-San Jose project currently has a transfer capacity of 2,000 megawatts (MW), part of the full capacity of 8,000 MW of Lines 1 and 2. 

The rest of the capacity cannot be accomplished due to the work stoppage following the TRO, according to the NGCP.

“Although energized at its intended capacity, it’s only Line 1. We hope that the TRO would be lifted immediately so that we can complete the second circuit,” Ms. Alabanza said.

The P10.2-billion Hermosa-San Jose transmission line was initially energized in May last year. 

It spans the provinces of Bulacan, Pampanga, and Bataan, serving as a major component in the planned Luzon 500-kV transmission backbone.

Meanwhile, NGCP is aiming to complete the looping in the Cebu-Bohol 230-kV interconnection project “in the next few months” or “possibly within the next year or so.”

“Once the Cebu-Bohol interconnection is complete, there would be an alternative route for power, (and) it would not be reliant on Leyte. So (the interconnection) could now source power from Cebu,” Ms. Alabanza said.

The Cebu-Bohol interconnection project will connect the two islands via double-circuit 230-kV submarine cables.

The link will head off overloading of the Leyte-Bohol 138-kV submarine cable and provide Bohol Island with another source of power. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera

Agribusiness executives should be upskilled

ANFLOCOR.COM/TADECO

(Part 1)

A positive sign that the administration of President Bongbong Marcos is on the way to improving the productivity of the agribusiness sector is the increasing number of Philippine conglomerates diversifying into agriculture and investing substantial amounts of long-term capital in the sector.

There is the First Pacific group led by Manny Pangilinan, who is diversifying from their major investments in infrastructures and energy into sugar and dairy production. Benguet Corp. — the gold and nickel mining company — is planning to invest in a big way in large-scale coconut farming in Samar and Leyte.

The DMC Consunji group has already expanded its long-term investments in agriculture in Mindanao by leasing hundreds of hectares of deforested lands in the south of Negros Occidental to plant palm oil. Luis Lorenzo, Jr., a former Agriculture secretary and part of the family that pioneered in pineapple plantations in the last century, is now diversifying in a big way into bamboo plantations that will be the source of raw materials for manufacturing construction materials that can equal the strength of steel.

The Aboitizes are expanding their investments in food and beverage manufacturing. This trend is a far cry from the former practice of the biggest Philippine banks who preferred to pay hundreds of millions of pesos in penalty to the BSP so as not to be obliged to lend to agribusiness projects under the Agri-Agra law.

Because agriculture was always what I called the “Cinderella” of the Philippine economy — neglected and unwanted — even the best minds who took up agricultural sciences in UP Los Baños and other universities (like the Araneta University and Silliman University in Dumaguete) ended up working in many fields that had nothing to do with food security. As one of the graduates of the “school of marketing” of Procter & Gamble (I had a short stint as a brand manager at P&G in the late 1950s), I met a good number of graduates of agricultural courses (especially from UP Los Baños) who ended up selling soap and toothpaste for P&G or Unilever.

A good number of them became bank executives, etc. That is why, as an avid proponent today of agribusiness development, I was happy to learn that a friend of mind, Jovy Hernandez, who studied agricultural sciences in Los Baños but who spent most of his professional life in other fields (including a long stint at PLDT) has been designated as the CEO of the First Pacific Agribusiness Venture and is now busy leading his company in importing hundreds of dairy cattle to produce some of the milk requirements of Carmen’s Best, an ice cream company that they bought from another friend of mine, Ramon (Jun) Magsaysay, Jr.

If I were working for an executive search company like Ward Howell or John Clements, I would be busy contacting executives in their 40s and 50s who are graduates of agricultural courses but have been working in other fields. They would be in great demand.

But even more urgent is the upskilling, reskilling and retooling of those managers who are already working for agribusiness enterprises, especially on the island of Mindanao. I am referring to such famous agribusiness companies as Anflo Group of Companies (foremost of which is Tagum Agricultural Development Co.), Lapanday, South Davao Development Co., Inc. of the Consunji group, Alsons Aquaculture Corp., NutriAsia, Del Monte, INFARMCO, Kenram Palmoil Industries, La Frutera, San Miguel Corp., Santeh Feeds, Sarangani Agricultural Co., Sumifru Philippines, Tateh Feeds, Unifrutti Philippines and Vitarich Corp. These have been among the forward-looking business groups that defied all the adverse circumstances surrounding the agricultural sector during the decades of neglect and failed attempts at an enlightened approach to agrarian reform, as what happened in our most successful neighbors like Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. These exceptional companies proved that money could be made in agribusiness despite all the odds that they faced in a hostile environment.

Thanks to the leadership of the late Rolando Dy who for more than 30 years headed the Center for Food and Agribusiness (CFA) of the University of Asia and the Pacific and the generous financial support of Walter Brown, founder of A. Brown Energy Resources, already as early as 2015, UA&P started to address the need to upskill and reskill top and middle managers of the leading agribusiness corporations.

With close cooperation from government agencies and the academe, the CFA of UA&P launched in 2015 the six-month, part-time agribusiness executives program that has turned out about 280 graduates, especially coming from the corporations mentioned above. Over the past 10 years, the program has been held in Davao, where most of the agribusiness enterprises are located. In 2017 and 2018, there were parallel runs in Baguio — also a hub for high-value food production — to cater to the Luzon market today.

The agribusiness executives program is a six-month certificate program. Today, the name of the game is no longer a college or masteral degree, but a certification of skills acquired in a work-study program aimed at developing the managerial, analytical and strategic thinking skills of executives and managers working in the agribusiness industry. Here, it is important to point out that agribusiness goes much beyond farming. It encompasses the whole supply chain involved in the production of food or agricultural raw materials, such as post-harvest, cold storage, logistics, processing, wholesale, retail up to the final consumer. The design of the program was based on a comprehensive need analysis of key agribusiness companies and developed in collaboration with agribusiness practitioners and experts. It adopts an action-learning approach that emphasizes skill development and the application of theoretical learning to specific agribusiness projects and related industries.

The agribusiness executives program targets middle and senior level managers and executives in the food and agribusiness sector who are directly or indirectly involved in planning, program/project implementation or are expected to be engaged in such activities in the future. Among the 280 certificate holders are managers from both the private and public sectors such as BFAR, DA, DTI, DepEd ARRRM, Mindanao Development Authority and DENR-MGB.

Participants go through six modules offered via a blended learning approach, using a combination of online and face-to-face sessions. For those interested in participating in the next run of the program, they may contact aep@uap.asia. The next module will run from September 2024 to March 2025 — one module per month, excluding December — with a total of 2.5 days per month, usually Thursday to Saturday afternoon. The program includes field visits to agribusiness projects during the fifth module. The last module will be held at the UA&P campus in Ortigas, Pasig City, culminating in graduation.

(To be continued.)

 

Bernardo M. Villegas has a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard, is professor emeritus at the University of Asia and the Pacific, and a visiting professor at the IESE Business School in Barcelona, Spain. He was a member of the 1986 Constitutional Commission.

bernardo.villegas@uap.asia

Foreign fund inflows to lift PSEi past 7,000 mark

FREEPIK

THE MAIN INDEX may end above the 7,000 level this year as foreign fund inflows continue to rise, according to the chief investment officer of the Philippines’ largest bank in asset terms.

BDO Unibank, Inc. Senior Vice-President and Chief Investment Officer of its Trust and Investments Group Frederico Rafael D. Ocampo told reporters last week that the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) may end at the 6,800 to 7,600 level this year.

“The Philippine stock market will finally wake up this year after falling asleep for five years. Year to date, we’re up by 8% in the first quarter this year as foreign funds have started to come in the Philippines. They were leaving in the past five years,” Mr. Ocampo said.

“Our base case is 7,200. Our bull case is 7,650 because we’re assuming 9% EPS (earnings per share) growth and at the bull case, we will be 14 times P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio. At our base case, we will be trading at around 12-13 times. So even at 7,200, which is 5% from where we’re at now, 12-13% total returns is not bad compared to the negative numbers we saw the last six years,” he said.

Mr. Ocampo said their bull case scenario assumes more than three rate cuts from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), which he noted “seems more unlikely” to happen amid lingering inflation risks.

“But if the foreign funds continue to come in, … that’s enough to lift the whole market,” he added.

On Monday, the bellwether PSEi retreated by 0.06% or 4.39 points from the prior session to end at 6,741.07.

Year to date, the benchmark index is up by 4.51% from its 6,450.04 finish on Dec. 29, 2023.

The BSP on Monday kept its policy rate unchanged at a near 17-year high of 6.5% for a fourth straight meeting, as expected by 16 analysts in a BusinessWorld poll. Rates on the central bank’s overnight deposit and lending facilities were likewise kept at 6% and 7%, respectively.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said at a briefing after the meeting that they could begin their policy easing cycle later than initially expected as they have become “more hawkish than before” due to persistent upside risks to inflation stemming from higher food and transport costs.

Mr. Remolona earlier said they could start considering rate cuts by the second half.

The central bank hiked borrowing costs by 450 basis points from May 2022 to October 2023 to help bring down elevated inflation.

Headline inflation accelerated to 3.7% year on year in March from 3.4% in February. This was slower than the 7.6% clip in the same month last year.

Still, this was within the BSP’s 3.4-4.2% forecast for the month and was slightly below the 3.8% median in a BusinessWorld poll. This also marked the fourth straight month that inflation was within the central bank’s 2-4% target.

For the first quarter, headline inflation averaged 3.3%.

Mr. Ocampo said aside from expectations of slower inflation, which will give the BSP confidence to begin cutting benchmark rates, increased foreign direct investments (FDIs) could also boost market sentiment.

“Foreign direct investments have always been the missing piece in the puzzle. That’s our waterloo. We’re stuck at the $5-10 billion per year compared to Vietnam and Indonesia, who are at $52-78 billion a year,” he said.

“Now, we’re seeing a lot of long-term project financing in renewable energy and food. These are our weaknesses as a country: food and energy security,” Mr. Ocampo added.

Net FDI inflows declined by 6.6% to $8.9 billion last year from $9.5 billion in 2022, latest BSP data showed. — AMCS