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Bank of Japan signals resolve to keep hiking rates

THE JAPANESE national flag is hoisted atop the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan Sept. 20, 2023. — REUTERS

TOKYO — Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda on Wednesday took in stride recent rises in bond yields, saying they were a natural reflection of market expectations of future interest rate hikes by the central bank.

The remarks underscore the BoJ’s resolve to keep raising short-term interest rates, and to allow markets to freely price in the chance of further hikes in borrowing costs.

While long-term interest rates have risen since last year, their moves should primarily be determined by market forces, Mr. Ueda told parliament.

“Long-term interest rates move on various factors. But the biggest determinant is the market’s forecast on the outlook for our short-term policy rate,” Mr. Ueda told parliament on Wednesday.

“It’s natural for long-term rates to move in a way that reflects such market forecasts,” he said.

There was no big divergence between the BoJ’s view and that of markets, he added, when asked about the recent steady rise in bond yields.

Markets have been focusing on whether the BoJ would issue a fresh warning after Japanese government bond (JGB) yields rose to their highest levels in more than a decade this week.

Mr. Ueda’s remarks highlight the central bank’s intention to phase out its presence from the bond market and convince investors that having ended its bond yield control policy last year, it will no longer step in to keep yields ultra-low.

In a speech last week, BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said a healthy, functioning market requires traders to form their own view on the central bank’s rate path based on their projections on the economic outlook — signaling the bank’s preference to allow market forces to determine yield moves.

The benchmark 10-year yield hit a 16-year high of 1.575% on Monday, before sliding to 1.525% on Tuesday as investors sought safe-haven debt in the wake of sharp falls in US and Japanese stock prices. It stood at 1.53% on Wednesday.

GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY LOOMS
Among factors driving up JGB yields were growing expectations the BoJ could raise rates sooner than initially thought on prospects of sustained wage and price gains.

Japan’s wholesale inflation, which is a leading indicator of consumer price moves, hit 4% year on year in February. Many big companies on Wednesday met union demands for substantial wage hikes for a third consecutive year.

But the outlook for Japan’s export-reliant economy has been clouded by fears higher US tariffs could hurt global growth, which may prod the BoJ to go slow in raising rates.

Speaking at a separate parliament session later on Wednesday, Mr. Ueda said he was “very worried” about uncertainty surrounding overseas economic developments. “At present, underlying inflation remains below 2%,” he added.

The BoJ is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at 0.5% at its policy review later this month, though the board may discuss a hike as soon as in May with an eye on domestic inflation and market volatility, sources have told Reuters.

A majority of economists polled by Reuters expect the BoJ to hike rates again sometime during the third quarter.

The BoJ ended its huge monetary stimulus last year, including a policy capping long-term rates around zero, on the view Japan was on the cusp of durably hitting its 2% inflation target.

The central bank raised its short-term policy rate to 0.5% from 0.25% in January, and signaled readiness to keep hiking if wages continue to increase and support consumption. — Reuters

Philippines improves in Global Opportunity Index

The Philippines went up by 13 places to 78th out of 116 countries in the 2025 Global Opportunity Index by the nonprofit think tank Milken Institute. The index measures a country’s attractiveness to foreign investments. Despite its improvement in ranking, the Philippines still placed second-worst among its peers in the East and Southeast Asian region.

Philippines improves in Global Opportunity Index

How PSEi member stocks performed — March 12, 2025

Here’s a quick glance at how PSEi stocks fared on Wednesday, March 12, 2025.


Power outlook being reviewed following Luzon yellow alert

STOCK PHOTO | Image by Natsuki from Unsplash

THE National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) said it met with the Department of Energy (DoE) to adjust the power outlook following the declaration of a yellow alert last week.

“We’re still in the process of assessing and adjusting (the forecast) after the sudden spike in temperature on March 5. So as soon as we have that revised projection, considering all the factors, we will get back to you,” NGCP Spokesperson Cynthia P. Alabanza said at a briefing on Wednesday.

Ms. Alabanza said that the company will also work with power generators and distribution utilities next week to arrive at possible solutions and contingency plans to avoid disruptions to the power supply.

On March 5, the NGCP raised a yellow alert over the Luzon grid as demand spiked with the hot weather, with capacity also stretched by forced outages in some power plants. Unavailable because of unplanned outages totaled 3,362 megawatts (MW).

“With NGCP’s implementation of rapid assessment on grid stability, optimization of remaining available power, and continuous real-time monitoring and coordination with affected plants, the power situation did not escalate into a red alert,” the grid operator said.

A yellow alert is issued when the power supply-demand balance falls below safety margins.

Peak demand for the year was recorded on March 6 at 12,467 MW, up 5% compared with the DoE-approved GOP (Grid Operating Program), which had forecast demand of 11,870 MW that day.

For 2025, the Department of Energy forecast peak demand of 14,769 MW for Luzon, 3,111 MW for the Visayas, and 2,789 MW for Mindanao.

Meanwhile, the NGCP cautioned the public that while power supply “seems sufficient on paper,” unplanned outages have been the primary cause of power interruptions.

“While NGCP has complied with the DoE directive on the procurement of ancillary services (AS) through competitive selection process and payment of AS procured through the AS Reserve Market, the unplanned outages cause all power dispatched through the transmission system to be used for energy consumption,” the grid operator said.

“The contingency and dispatchable ancillary services will have been depleted and already running and dispatched as ‘energy’ for use by the consumers, and no longer reserved for ancillary services, since the contingency for which they were procured has already occurred,” it added.

A shortfall in supply, should that occur, means that while all available generators are running, including those contracted by NGCP for AS, the existing supply is still insufficient to meet demand, the company said.

Ancillary services are tapped by grid operators to support the transmission of power from generators to consumers to maintain reliable operations. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera

Dual citizens to be eligible for tourist VAT refund program — draft IRR

DUAL CITIZENS will be allowed to avail of the value-added tax (VAT) refund for tourists if they enter the country using their foreign passport, according to draft implementing rules and regulations (IRR) released by the Department of Finance.

The IRR draft considers Filipinos with dual citizenship who use their foreign passport to enter the country as falling under the definition of “tourist.”

President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. signed Republic Act No. 12079, also known as “Act Creating a VAT Refund Mechanism for Non-Resident Tourists,” in December. The law allows tourists to claim VAT refunds on purchases worth at least P3,000 from government-accredited stores.

The law, as approved, holds that “sales to citizens and residents of the Philippines, and foreign nationals residing in the country, are not eligible for VAT refund.” 

The draft IRR deems “non-resident foreign passport holders who visit the Philippines” as tourists.

A public consultation on the IRR is scheduled for March 17.

The law follows the risk-based classification system for other VAT refund claims. It said claims deemed “high-risk” will require the presentation of the goods purchased for inspection and further validation by the Bureau of Customs. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante

Sugar order calls for export of 66,000 metric tons to US

WIKIMEDIA.ORG/PATRICKROQUE01

THE sugar regulator issued an order calling for voluntary exports of 66,000 metric tons (MT) of raw sugar to the United States.

Sugar Order No. 5, issued on Wednesday, allows the Philippines to fulfill its obligations under the US Raw Sugar Tariff-Rate Quota World Trade Allocation, the Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA) said.

Participants in the export program will enjoy priority in future import programs.

Participants complying with the order will be allowed to import 2.5 kilograms of refined sugar for every kilogram of raw sugar exported to the US.

The Office of the US Trade Representative gave the Philippines a quota of 145,235 MT raw value of raw cane sugar to the Philippines for the year to September.

Potential participants have until March 30 to submit to the SRA a written and notarized undertaking stating the amount of sugar they plan to ship to the US.

SRA Administrator Pablo Luis S. Azcona has said that the industry lobbied to export 66,000 MT of sugar instead of the initial 60,000 MT, to maximize the use of the cargo ship.

Segments of the local industry, including farmers, oppose sugar exports to the US because the US buys the commodity at a lower price.

“Sugar is bought by traders at US prices, which is about P1,000 less than domestic prices. That’s why farmers complained,” Mr. Azcona said last month, noting that the then-draft order incorporated the industry’s concerns. — Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza

Philippines exploring satellite, agricultural technology tie-ups with Slovenia

REUTERS

THE PHILIPPINES is exploring possible collaboration in satellites and agricultural technology with Slovenia, the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) said.

Speaking on the sidelines of a forum organized for the visit of a Slovenian business delegation, Trade Secretary Cristina A. Roque said: “We really try to foresee how both countries can benefit from trade missions such as this… We discussed satellites, and they also have agri-tech, which is something that we are very interested in.”

She added at the Philippines-Slovenia Business Forum that the Philippines needs to develop technology in agriculture to achieve food security.

“We have a fast-growing population. It’s really important for us, so we don’t have to import so much because it’s expensive,” she added.

On Monday, the Philippines welcomed the delegation representing of 42 companies from the Slovenian mobility, manufacturing, food and beverage, information and communications technology, science, technology and education, business consultancy industries. Some of the companies also expressed interest in employing overseas Filipino workers.

“We are doing yearly investigations within our member companies, and the Philippines is seen as a really important hub for Slovenia because more than 80% of the Slovenian companies are exporters” according to Marjana Majerič, executive director of Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Slovenia (CCIS).

She sees the most promising areas for cooperation are technology, pharmaceuticals and medical devices, agri-food, sustainability, logistics, infrastructure, and energy.

“These are the areas that we can see as a really possible match between the Philippines and Slovenia,” according to Ms. Majerič, the head of the delegation.

At the forum, the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI) and CCIS signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to strengthen business and economic cooperation between the two countries.

Under the agreement, PCCI and CCIS committed to organizing outbound or hosting inbound trade and investment missions and participating in exhibitions, trade fairs, symposiums, seminars, conferences, study tours, business matching, training, and other trade and investment promotion activities.

The two parties also agreed to organize a Philippines-Slovenia business council which will implement their joint initiatives.

“Twenty years ago, we signed a contract with PCCI, and we now extended this MoU with an action plan. The previous MoU was a little bit general, but now we stick to more precise activities,” Ms. Majerič said.

“I think through that, we will have this possibility to make even further activities because we are already organizing online meetings with the companies,” she added.

PCCI Chairman George T. Barcelon said that the new MoU strengthens the two parties’ institutional cooperation.

“This agreement will provide a robust framework for regular business exchanges, trade and investment missions, and information sharing between our business communities,” he said.

“To our Slovenian friends, let me assure you that Philippine businesses are eager to explore partnerships with you. I understand that there are a few Slovenian companies currently operating in the Philippines, and I hope today will further balloon your presence in the country,” he added.

PCCI President Enunina V. Mangio said that the Philippines and Slovenia offer natural synergies in many high-value sectors.

“In manufacturing, for example, we see opportunities for technology transfer and supply chain integration. In information and digital technology, possibilities for joint ventures in software development, digital services, artificial intelligence, and other emerging technologies abound,” she said.

“Tourism presents untapped potential for cross-promotion and sustainable development models. And in human resource development, we can share best practices that enhance our competitiveness globally,” she added.

According to Ms. Majerič, Slovenian companies see the Philippines as a possible gateway to Asia.

“Your big advantage is your English-speaking people, and the second advantage that we see is your people are really eager to grow and learn,” she said.

“But besides that, your openness and your politics in terms of free zones and industrial parks give us possibilities in terms of approaching other markets,” she added.

She said that the Philippines is a possible springboard for US trade.

“In terms of the new American politics, the Philippines still has positive ties, so we see the possibility to step into the US market as well,” she added.

She said that the trade volume between the Philippines and Slovenia was 16 million euros in 2024. — Justine Irish D. Tabile

Philippines needs 9-9.5% growth to return to pre-pandemic track 

PHILIPPINE STAR/WALTER BOLLOZOS

THE economy needs to grow by at least 9% to 9.5% a year until 2028 to return to its pre-pandemic growth track, a former Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) official said.

During the MAP Economic Briefing and General Membership Meeting, GlobalSource Partners analyst Diwa C. Guinigundo said that the current government’s target of “between 6% to 8% annually, by 2036 (the Philippines) should be reaching only P60 trillion.”

“To overcome this setback, growth will have to be between 9% to 9.5% through 2028 to be able to return to the original growth path,” he said.

Last year, Mr. Guinigundo pushed for targets of 9.4% growth.

The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) on December trimmed the economic growth estimate for this year to 6-6.5% but widened the target band to 6-8% until 2028, due to “evolving domestic and global uncertainties.”

Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto described as “doable” growth of between 6% and 6.5%.

In 2024, the economy expanded by 5.6%, following a 5.5% reading in 2023. It fell short of the government’s revised 6-6.5% target.

“We grew by only 5.5% in 2023 and 5.6% last year. Of course, we take pride in saying Philippine growth performance surpassed the global average in 2022 and 2023 of 3.5% and 3.3% respectively,” he said. 

“But we had the economy stall in 2020 and the years following that, so we have a lot of catching up to do.”

Mr. Guinigundo said risks to the economy include fiscal and debt sustainability, with revenue effort remaining low, food security issues, and political disunity.

“Since the Trump policy of tariff increases and tax cuts are potentially inflationary, we don’t expect the Fed to be very aggressive in reducing the target interest rate,” he added in his presentation.

“With the BSP having the space to further ease monetary policy, we see a potential capital outflow, peso depreciation, and therefore, the resurgence of inflation.”

Mr. Guinigundo noted that the budget deficit, which narrowed to P1.506 trillion in 2024, remains  in the “trillion mark.”

He said improved tax administration can only yield much, as can “squeezing” state-run firms for more dividends.

“This is after Congress forced the split banks and other GOCCs to continue to the Maharlika Investment Fund. No wonder, from the pre-pandemic (debt) of $7.7 trillion, we saw the crisis ending at $16 trillion. In January 2025, $300 billion was added to National Government debt,” he said. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante

Finances, starting business top Filipino wish lists in 2025

PHILIPPINE STAR/MIGUEL DE GUZMAN

THE Boston Consulting Group (BCG) said financial security and health will remain the top goals for Filipinos in 2025.

Citing the results of an October study, BCG said 58% of survey participants ranked financial security as their most important goal, followed by starting their businesses at 56%.

In an interview with BusinessWorld, BCG Principal Sitti Reyes said these goals may not significantly change from last year and could be amplified given the global uncertainties prevailing.

“These dreams are underpinned really by kind of the anxiety and a lack of trust that they can thrive in those conditions,” she said.

The study also noted that Filipinos increased spending on supplements by 11%, on medicine by 5%, and on preventive healthcare by 19%. Personal spending on health maintenance organizations (HMO) declined 3%.

The dearth of spending on HMOs was explained by a preference for products promising immediate value, she said.

“It is also a perception issue at this point. So you could be spending P20,000-P30,000, something that you may not use. It’s just for when (emergencies) come,” she said.

In the same report, 60% of respondents said they have a health plan.

Only 65% considered themselves prepared for medical emergencies. Among those without a healthcare plan, the rate was 21%. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante

PHL still importing bulk of dairy needs despite improving self-sufficiency rate

REUTERS

THE milk self-sufficiency rate rose to 1.66% in 2024 from 0.8% a year earlier, according to the National Dairy Authority (NDA).

Dairy production increased 11.31% to 32.39 million liters last year, Administrator Marcus Antonius T. Andaya said at the NDA’s 30th anniversary event on Wednesday.

“That translates to 1.66% milk sufficiency,” he said. “It may not be spectacular increase, but an increase is an increase.”

Mr. Andaya said the dairy herd rose 56% to 156,000 dairy animals in 2024.

These animals include cattle, carabaos, and goats.

Mr. Andaya told reporters that the NDA expects to hit its 2.5% self-sufficiency target this year. The target is 5% in 2028.

The NDA reported that dairy imports rose 19.99% 3,495.88 million liters last year. — Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza

PEZA taps BDO for investment promotion tie-up

BW FILE PHOTO

THE Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA) said it appointed BDO Unibank, Inc. as its investment promotion partner.

In a Facebook post on Wednesday, PEZA said it signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with BDO on March 10.

“This MoU solidifies a powerful synergy between PEZA’s mandate and BDO’s extensive network, its status as the only globally recognized Philippine bank with full international coverage, and its financial expertise in supporting trade, commerce, and investments,” said PEZA.

“PEZA recognizes BDO’s strong commitment to financial inclusion and business expansion, which aligns perfectly with its goal of driving regional development, enhancing competitiveness, and positioning the Philippines as a top investment destination,” it added.

PEZA now has four partner banks for trade, commerce, and investment support and facilitation, the others being Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp., Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., and HSBC.

“Through strategic partnerships like this, we further strengthen our capacity to attract both foreign and local investors and ensure that our economic zones continue to be prime locations for growth, innovation, and sustainability,” PEZA Director General Tereso O. Panga said.

BDO is a member of the SM Group, which operates 25 information technology centers and parks hosting 76 PEZA locators.

“Together with PEZA, we aim to maximize the benefits of the CREATE MORE Law and its newly signed IRR to drive more foreign direct investment,” BDO Executive Vice-President and Head of Institutional Banking Group Charles M. Rodriguez said.

Signed into law on Nov. 12, CREATE MORE, or the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises to Maximize Opportunities for Reinvigorating the Economy Act, aims to increase foreign direct investment.

In a separate statement, PEZA said it signed a supplemental agreement with Collins Aerospace to expand the company’s operations at the First Philippine Industrial Park Special Economic Zone.

“The company’s registered activities now cover a broader scope, including manufacturing, assembly, distribution, and certification of aircraft interior components, as well as the repair, maintenance, and servicing of aerospace systems,” PEZA said. 

“Through this strengthened collaboration, PEZA continues to foster a thriving, technology-driven investment landscape, positioning the Philippines as a key player in the global aerospace industry,” it added. — Justine Irish D. Tabile

A refresher on taxes for campaign contributions

I was browsing through the envelopes in my mailbox when I found an unsolicited letter that had been sitting there for some time. I wondered how the sender got my home address. It turned out to be a greeting from a city councilor. It did not look like the usual political ad, but the name and message of the sender remained in my mind. Indeed, some politicians have been preparing for the elections and reaching out to potential voters even before the campaign period began. Apart from the actual elections, one of the important things that they should have in mind are the tax aspects of campaign contributions.

Recently, the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) issued RMC 16-2025 to remind candidates and everyone else participating in the May 12 elections of their tax obligations.

As a rule, campaign expenditures of political parties and candidates in local and national elections are subject to 5% creditable withholding tax (CWT). Likewise, purchases made by individuals or juridical persons intended to be given as campaign contribution to political parties and candidates are subject to 5% CWT. The withholding tax system helps our government ensure that election-related income is taxed and provides a way to monitor the reporting of these transactions.

On the part of the candidates, political parties, or party-list groups, the accurate withholding of taxes is crucial since only the expenses that were subjected to the 5% CWT can be considered as utilized campaign funds. Otherwise, if the CWT is not withheld and remitted, the corresponding expense shall be treated as unutilized campaign funds.

Aside from withholding taxes, any candidate, political party, or party-list group, win or lose, is required to file with the Commission on Elections (Comelec) a Statement of Contributions and Expenditures as provided under the Omnibus Election Code. Without this, they may not claim their expenses as deductions from the campaign contributions.

Ultimately, any unutilized or excess campaign funds after deducting the allowable campaign expenditures is subject to income tax. Thus, there is a real economic consequence for candidates if CWT is not withheld and if the expenses are not reported to the Comelec. No further deduction, either itemized or optional, may be made against such taxable income. Compliance is therefore critical.

Considering such a hefty price of not complying with the requirements or conditions of deductibility of campaign expenditures, candidates should be mindful of the following registration and reporting requirements.

First, all candidates receiving donations or spending for their campaign have the duty to register or update their registration with the BIR. Further, those receiving donations and campaign contributions must secure a Non-VAT BIR Printed invoice purchased from the Revenue District Office (RDO) where they are registered. The invoice shall be issued for every contribution (whether in cash or kind).

Second, all political parties or party-list groups and candidates must comply with the tax return filing and remittance requirements. This includes the following:

1.   Monthly remittance of CWT using BIR Form No. 0619-E on or before the 10th day of the month after the tax was withheld;

2.   Filing and payment of the quarterly withholding tax return (BIR Form No. 1601-EQ) on or before the last day of the month after the end of the quarter after the tax was withheld. This must include the Quarterly Alphalist of Payees (QAP);

3.   Filing the Annual Information Return of CWT (BIR Form No. 1604-E) as well as the Statement of Contributions and Expenditures duly stamped “Received” by the Comelec on or before March 1, 2026; and

4. Reporting any unutilized/excess campaign funds as taxable income.

Third, political parties and party-list groups are expected to keep adequate books and other accounting records such as a Cash Receipts Journal and a Cash Disbursements Book as the basis for the Statement of Contributions and the Statement of Expenditures for submission to the Comelec. On the other hand, individual candidates may opt to use a simplified set of bookkeeping records if it can provide accurate information. The records of contributions and expenditures, together with all pertinent documents, must be preserved for a period of three years from the close of the taxable year during which the election was held (or until Dec. 31, 2028 for the 2025 elections).

Finally, every candidate and Treasurer of the political parties or party-list groups must submit the Statement of Contributions and Expenditures to Comelec and the RDO where the candidates, political parties or party-list groups are registered within 30 days after the election.

Incidentally, after the elections, the registration of individuals in their capacity as candidates shall automatically end 10 days after the deadline of filing the quarterly withholding tax return, so they need not apply for cancellation or update of their registration with the BIR. However, the political parties’ registration including party-list groups shall remain intact, unless they opt to have this updated.

On the part of the contributors, only those donations or contributions that have been utilized or spent during the campaign period as set by the Comelec are exempt from donor’s tax. Donations utilized before or after the campaign period are subject to donor’s tax and not deductible as political contributions on the part of the donor. Thus, for supporters, it’s also important to monitor the contributions and see that these are duly spent and accounted for. If not, they may be subject to taxes as well.

The election season is now in full swing, and once again, I am reminded of the power of the electorate to decide on how we want to move forward as one country in the coming years. We must never forget our civic responsibilities and obligations, candidates or voters alike, to contribute to a successful election and help protect, if not advance, the democracy that we have today.

The views or opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Isla Lipana & Co. The content is for general information purposes only, and should not be used as a substitute for specific advice.

 

Delila Dayag is an assistant manager at the Tax Services department of Isla Lipana & Co., the Philippine member firm of the PwC network.

delila.l.dayag@pwc.com

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