DUBAI/CAIRO/WASHINGTON — Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on Tuesday they would not allow “one liter of oil” to be shipped from the Middle East if US and Israeli attacks continue, prompting a warning from President Donald J. Trump that the US would hit Iran much harder if it blocked exports from the vital energy-producing region.

The heightened rhetoric did little to quell a sharp retreat in crude prices and a rally in global shares, which came after Mr. Trump expressed confidence in a swift end to hostilities even after Iran appointed Mojtaba Khamenei as its new supreme leader in a signal of defiance.

Mr. Trump said on Monday the United States had inflicted serious damage on Iran’s military and predicted the conflict would end well before the initial four-week time frame he had laid out, though he has not defined what victory would look like.

Israel says its war aim is to overthrow Iran’s system of clerical rule. US officials mainly say Washington’s aim is to destroy Iran’s missile capabilities and nuclear program, but Mr. Trump has said the war can end only with a compliant Iranian government.

At least 1,332 Iranian civilians have been killed and thousands wounded since the US and Israel launched a barrage of air and missile strikes across Iran at the end of February, according to Iran’s United Nations ambassador.

Mr. Trump warned that US attacks could rise sharply if Iran sought to block tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.

“We will hit them so hard that it will not be possible for them or anybody else helping them to ever recover that section of the world,” Mr. Trump said at a news conference on Monday.

IRAN SAYS IT WILL DETERMINE END OF WAR
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would not allow any oil to leave the region if attacks from the United States and Israel continue.

“We are the ones who will determine the end of the war,” a spokesperson said, describing Mr. Trump’s comments as “nonsense,” according to state media.

In a later Truth Social post, Mr. Trump repeated his warning.

“If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far,” he said.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran was unlikely to resume negotiations with the US, citing what he described as a “bitter experience” with past talks.

“After three rounds of negotiation, the American team in the negotiation said itself that we made a big progress. Still, they decided to attack us. So, I don’t think talking to the Americans anymore would be on our agenda any more,” he said in an interview with PBS.

The war has already effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, leaving tankers unable to sail for more than a week and forcing producers to halt pumping as storage facilities fill.

Mr. Khamenei’s appointment on Monday appeared to dash hopes of a swift end to the war, sending oil markets surging and share markets nose-diving, before swinging in the other direction when Mr. Trump predicted a quick end to the war and reports of a possible ease in sanctions on Russian energy.

After speaking with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Mr. Trump said the United States will waive oil-related sanctions on “some countries” to ease the shortage.

According to multiple sources, that could mean a further easing of sanctions on Russian oil, which could complicate efforts to punish Moscow for its war in Ukraine. Other options include a possible release of oil from strategic reserves or restricting US exports, sources said.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 fell more than 10% on Tuesday after soaring by as much as 29% on Monday to their highest since 2022. Global stock markets also bounced.

The price of gasoline has particular political resonance in the United States, where voters cite rising costs as a top concern ahead of the November midterm elections, when Mr. Trump’s Republicans will try to keep control of Congress.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Monday found 67% of Americans expect gas prices to rise over the coming months, and only 29% approve of the war.

“They’re horrible,” one Los Angeles driver said of current gas prices. “They’re too expensive, they’re high, they’re just so high, you know. Sometimes you have to choose between gas and other things that you really need.”

OIL REFINERY HIT
Tehran was choked in black smoke after an oil refinery was hit, an escalation in strikes on Iran’s domestic energy supplies. World Health Organization chief Tedros Ghebreyesus warned the fire risks contaminating food, water and air.

Turkey said the North Atlantic Treaty Organization air defenses had shot down a ballistic missile that was fired from Iran and entered Turkish airspace, the second such incident of the war. Iran did not immediately comment on the report.

Israel’s military said it had launched new attacks in central Iran and struck the Lebanese capital Beirut, where Israel has extended its campaign after the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah fired across the border.

In Australia, five Iranian women’s soccer team players were granted humanitarian visas after they sought asylum fearing persecution in their home nation. Canberra has also promised to send military surveillance aircraft to the Middle East and missiles to the United Arab Emirates to help them defend themselves against attacks from Iran. — Reuters

SEOUL — North Korea’s Kim Yo Jong, the sister of leader Kim Jong Un, said US-South Korea military drills that began this week were a “provocative and aggressive war rehearsal” that would harm regional stability, state media KCNA reported on Tuesday.

The annual Freedom Shield military exercises revealed the allies’ “habitual hostile policy” toward North Korea and “will further destroy regional stability,” Ms. Kim said in a statement.

Ms. Kim described the drills in South Korea as involving more than 18,000 South Korean and US forces and being staged “day and night across the territorial ground, sea, air, outer space and cyberspace” of North Korea.

She said the display of military force could “lead to terrible consequences that are unimaginable.”

Recent global geopolitical crises and various international events demonstrate that in all military maneuvers carried out by hostile forces, there is no distinction between defense and offense, nor between drills and actual combat, Ms. Kim said.

South Korea and the United States have said the drills, which run from March 9 to 19, were “defensive in nature” and would incorporate deterrence scenarios related to North Korea’s nuclear weapons.

The exercise will also serve as an opportunity to support ongoing preparations for the transfer of US wartime operational control to South Korea, officials from both countries have said.

South Korea aims to complete the handover of military command from the US before President Lee Jae Myung’s term ends in 2030.

Analysts say the drills come at a sensitive time for North Korea, as it witnesses the US and Israel carry out leadership‑targeting operations against Iran that may reinforce Pyongyang’s reliance on its nuclear capacity.

Ms. Kim’s remarks that offensive power is the most reliable deterrent “reflects a determination not to suffer the same fate as Iran, serving as both a justification for self-defense and a renewed message at home and abroad that giving up nuclear weapons would mean doom,” said Lim Eul-chul, a North Korea expert at South Korea’s Kyungnam University.

The US-South Korea drills follow North Korea’s ruling Party Congress in February, where leader Mr. Kim said he would focus on expanding his country’s nuclear arsenal. — Reuters

TAIPEI — An order for four advanced US-made MQ-9B “SkyGuardian” drones is on track and hasn’t been affected by the war in the Middle East, Taiwan’s air force said on Tuesday.

The air force said in a statement that the order for the drones, made by General Atomics and designed for surveillance and target acquisition, is proceeding according to schedule. It has previously said it expects delivery of the first two later this year.

The US and Israeli attack on Iran, on top of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Israel’s military operations in Gaza, has seen the US draw down billions of dollars’ worth of weapons stockpiles.

The United States is Taiwan’s main source of weapons, and Taipei has repeatedly complained of delivery delays due to snarled supply chains dating back to the COVID pandemic, including of F-16V fighter jets.

“Deliveries have not been affected by the fighting in the Middle East,” the air force statement said.

“The military remains in close contact with the US side to ensure progress stays on track and to effectively strengthen overall national defense capabilities.”

The MQ-9 series of drones has been widely used in combat situations, including by Israel over Gaza.

Speaking to reporters earlier on Tuesday at parliament, Taiwan Defense Minister Wellington Koo said the government had not been approached by the US about transfers of weapons to the Middle East.

If any of Taiwan’s US-made weapons were to be redeployed, that would only happen if the US side made a request, he added.

“But so far, because of the US-Iran war, they have not approached us about making use of any of our related equipment,” Mr. Koo said.

Democratically governed Taiwan is facing increased military pressure from China, which views the island as its own territory. Taiwan’s government rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims.

South Korea cannot stop US forces in Korea from redeploying some weapons, President Lee Jae Myung said on Tuesday, after reports that some US Patriot missile defense systems were being sent to the conflict in the Middle East. — Reuters