BRUSSELS — The European Union’s (EU) disinformation-busting team last month debunked a Russian-language video on YouTube that said citizens were fleeing dictatorship in EU member Poland and seeking refuge in Belarus, a close ally of Moscow.

The story peddled recurring pro-Kremlin narratives of Warsaw holding aggressive militaristic intentions and of democratic failings in Poland and the wider EU, the team known as Stratcom said.

It was also part of what Stratcom says is a broader Russian disinformation campaign that Europe is widely seen as struggling to counter before an election to the European Parliament on June 6-9.

The video fitted a pattern: Russia-linked websites take pro-Kremlin content from state-controlled outlets or pro-Kremlin social media accounts, repackage it, including with translation, and spread it via new channels to target EU audiences, EU officials say.

Russia is widely accused of having waged disinformation campaigns targeting elections in the United States, Europe and Britain over the last decade although Moscow had denied it uses disinformation to influence public opinion.

A US intelligence assessment in 2023 found Moscow was using spies, social media and Russian state-run media to erode public faith in the integrity of elections worldwide.

European capitals have warned of a pre-election surge in disinformation, but its impact is hard to gauge.

“Influence operations by Russia, China and other actors, including domestic groups, have the potential to disrupt online conversations around the EU election,” said Jack Stubbs, chief intelligence officer at social network analysis firm Graphika.

“We’ve seen evidence to suggest that even the people conducting the operations can struggle to understand if they are having an impact.”

Russia’s foreign ministry did not respond to a request for comment. Moscow dismisses Western allegations that it is spreading disinformation.

Stratcom, a team of 40 that runs on a shoestring budget of 15 million euros ($16.3 million), is on the front line of Brussels’ battle against disinformation. But the 27-nation bloc is under-resourced for the fight, two EU officials said.

“We cannot stage an offensive from Brussels,” said Peter Stano, spokesperson for the European Commission’s diplomatic service, adding such action had to happen at member-state level.

Most, though not all, EU countries do wage their own fight against disinformation, but resources vary, and experts say the European effort is disjointed.

This has left mainstream parties vulnerable to disinformation campaigns that amplify grievances that are fueling voter discontent and underpinning support for nationalist parties in France, Germany and elsewhere.

According to the EU’s second annual disinformation report published this year, Poland and Germany were the most targeted nations inside the EU. France and non-EU member Serbia were also among the top targets.

FRAGMENTED RESPONSE
Moscow, whose relations with Western governments have sunk since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, says the West is waging an information war involving fake claims aimed at destroying Russia’s reputation and casting it as an enemy.

Officials in Russia, which has suppressed dissent under President Vladimir Putin, say the West has become so intolerant that it refuses to accept any view that contradicts the prevailing dominant narrative.

France’s European affairs minister, Jean-Noel Barrot, told newspaper Ouest France in April that his country was “pounded” by Russian disinformation.

Attacks against France include the creation of a fake French government website alleging 200,000 citizens were being called up to fight in Ukraine and a Paris bed bug scare that was amplified by Kremlin-backed activities and went viral.

“Not a week goes by without France being the target of coordinated and deliberate maneuvers to disrupt public debate and interfere in the campaign for the European elections,” Mr. Barrot told the newspaper.

Tomasz Chlon, the Polish government’s international disinformation commissioner, told Reuters that blocking websites was like squeezing a balloon because they crop up elsewhere.

Efforts to fight disinformation vary across Europe.

France has tasked its Viginum foreign disinformation watchdog — which has a team of 42 and is growing — with monitoring Russia-linked social media accounts and uncovering influence operations. Spain has a dedicated taskforce that uses hardware designed by Europol to coordinate its state response.

Italy’s political opposition has drafted legislation that would create a unit dedicated to identifying acts of disinformation. Slovakia, whose government faces accusations of favouring Russia, has mostly gutted a unit it said was staffed by “activist clerks” in charge of ensuring “there is only one correct opinion.”

“The overall response is very fragmented,” said Valentin Chatelet, a researcher at the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensics Lab.

In a sign of Europe’s intent to act more forcefully, EU nations last month suspended four Russian media entities, including Czech-registered website Voice of Europe, calling them Kremlin-linked propaganda networks.

The Kremlin said there would be repercussions for Western journalists in Moscow in retaliation.

The EU’s new Digital Services Act (DSA) requires Big Tech to do more to counter illegal and harmful content. Generative AI has made it faster and easier for foreign actors to spread misinformation, EU officials say.

“Before with trolls and bots, there was usually a person behind it. With AI, everything has multiplied,” Stano said. — Reuters

LONDON/DUBAI — OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to extend most of its deep oil output cuts well into 2025 as the group seeks to shore up the market amid tepid demand growth, high interest rates and rising rival US production.

Brent crude oil prices have been trading near $80 per barrel in recent days, below what many OPEC+ members need to balance their budgets. Worries over slow demand growth in top oil importer China have weighed on prices alongside rising oil stocks in developed economies.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, together known as OPEC+, have made a series of deep output cuts since late 2022.

OPEC+ members are currently cutting output by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5.7% of global demand.

Those include 3.66 million bpd of cuts, which were due to expire at the end of 2024, and voluntary cuts by eight members of 2.2 million bpd, expiring at the end of June 2024.

On Sunday, OPEC+ agreed to extend the cuts of 3.66 million bpd by a year until the end of 2025 and prolong the cuts of 2.2 million bpd by three months until the end of September 2024.

OPEC+ will gradually phase out the cuts of 2.2 million bpd over the course of a year from October 2024 to September 2025.

“We are waiting for interest rates to come down and a better trajectory when it comes to economic growth … not pockets of growth here and there,” Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told reporters.

OPEC expects demand for OPEC+ crude to average 43.65 million bpd in the second half of 2024, implying a stocks drawdown of 2.63 million bpd if the group maintains output at April’s rate of 41.02 million bpd.

The drawdown will be less when OPEC+ starts phasing out the 2.2 million bpd voluntary cuts in October.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), which represents top global consumers, estimates that demand for OPEC+ oil plus stocks will average much lower levels of 41.9 million bpd in 2024. “The deal should allay market fears of OPEC+ adding back barrels at a time when demand concerns are still rife,” said Amrita Sen, co-founder of Energy Aspects think tank.

Prince Abdulaziz said OPEC+ could pause the unwinding of cuts or reverse them if demand wasn’t strong enough.

QUICK DEAL
Analysts had expected OPEC+ to prolong voluntary cuts by a few months due to falling oil prices and sluggish demand.

But many analysts had also predicted the group would struggle to set targets for 2025 as it had yet to agree individual capacity targets for each member, an issue that had previously created tensions.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE), for instance, has been pushing for a higher production quota, arguing its capacity figure had been long under-estimated.

But in a surprise development on Sunday, OPEC+ postponed the discussions on capacities until November 2025 from this year.

Instead, the group agreed a new output target for the UAE which will be allowed to gradually raise production by 0.3 million bpd, up from the current level of 2.9 million.

OPEC+ agreed that it would use independently assessed capacity figures as guidance for 2026 production instead of 2025 — postponing a potentially difficult discussion by one year.

Prince Abdulaziz said one of the reasons for the delay was difficulties for independent consultants to assess Russian data amid Western sanctions on Moscow for its war on Ukraine.

The meetings on Sunday lasted less than four hours — relatively short for such a complex deal.

OPEC+ sources said Prince Abdulaziz, the most influential minister in the OPEC group, had spent days preparing the deal behind the scenes.

He invited some key ministers — mostly those who contributed to the voluntary cuts — to come to the Saudi capital Riyadh on Sunday despite meetings being largely scheduled online.

The countries which have made voluntary cuts to output are Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

“It should be seen as a huge victory of solidarity for the group and Prince Abdulaziz,” said Ms. Sen, adding the deal would ease fears of Saudi Arabia adding barrels back due to Aramco’s share listing.

Saudi Arabia’s government has filed papers to sell a new stake in state oil giant Aramco that could raise as much as $13.1 billion, a landmark deal to help fund Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s plan to diversify the economy.

OPEC+ will hold its next meeting on Dec. 1, 2024. — Reuters

LONDON — Zara will expand its live shopping broadcasts to the United Kingdom (UK), Europe and the United States this year, testing a format that is already wildly popular in China but one with which Western shoppers are less familiar.

The fast-fashion brand, whose parent Inditex reports quarterly results on Wednesday, is investing in new ways to engage shoppers as analysts expect sales to grow less strongly after an extraordinary post-pandemic surge.

Five-hour long live shopping shows in China, broadcast weekly on Douyin, TikTok’s Chinese sister site, have helped boost Zara’s sales since they launched in November, according to retail analytics firm EDITED.

“We want to take this to the Western countries, where livestream is not as popular…but we think why not — from an entertainment perspective this is like an evolution,” said a Zara spokesperson for the initiative, which is expected to launch between August and October.

Shopping as entertainment isn’t new — TV shopping channels where viewers phoned in to buy featured products were popular for decades — but social media and e-commerce have triggered a new era of livestreaming, led by China where influencers sell everything from cosmetics to snacks at a frenetic pace.

Brands looking to create a more rarified experience have sought to do live shopping differently.

Zara’s show on Douyin features Chinese models wearing Zara dresses, trying on shoes and jewelry. It also includes catwalk sequences and “backstage” make-up shots, while its conversational, leisurely style is in contrast to the hard-sell livestreams that hosts like “Lipstick King” Li Jiaqi are famous for.

A team of 70 people works on the live show, which is streamed from a 1,000-square metre space in Shanghai, switching angles between seven cameras, Zara said. On average, it attracts around 800,000 unique viewers per show. “Zara’s livestream approach built significant brand awareness in China,” EDITED analyst Krista Corrigan said. Zara sold out of most sizes in 50% more products in China in the first three months of this year than in the same period of 2023, according to EDITED data.

The livestream also allows Zara to reach shoppers even as its physical presence in China has shrunk from 570 stores in 2019 to just 192 as of Jan. 31 this year. 

FRIENDLY, CASUAL AND FUN
In the UK, US and still to be announced European countries, Zara has chosen to host live shows on its app and website instead of a third-party social media platform to ensure control over aesthetics.

Alfonso Segura, who runs Barcelona-based fashion retail consultancy TFR, said this would also allow it to boost engagement and leverage its database of registered users.

The ad-hoc livestreams will highlight specific Zara Woman collections, and will be hosted by two “very well-known” fashion personalities, the brand said, without naming them.

Aiming for a “friendly, casual and fun” experience, the shows will be shorter than those on Douyin, lasting 45 minutes to an hour, but viewers will still be able to react in real time with questions, comments and emojis.

“We can’t always read across what has worked in China, to whether that’s going to work in western Europe or in the UK,” said JP Morgan analyst Georgina Johanan.

But, she added, Inditex’s investment in live shopping is an example of its momentum and ability to be at the forefront of experimenting with new formats.

“This is a business that, 10 years ago, most people were saying was behind in online, and here they are one of the first to trial this in the UK,” Ms. Johanan said.

Asos, L’Oréal and Puma are among brands to have launched on TikTok Shop in the UK in recent months, the platform said, while AliBaba platform AliExpress launched a UK livestream show in March called “It Girls” featuring influencers including Olivia Attwood.

Asos said its first order came within 30 minutes of launching, and new shoppers account for 57% of those buying its products via TikTok Shop.

Madrid-based Carmen Muley started out hosting AliExpress’ first livestream in China in 2016 and now advises brands on live shopping strategy through her company Paragon Social Commerce.

“Here in Europe, we don’t really like having someone selling something to us aggressively — of course the end goal of a live shopping event is to sell a product, but consumers don’t want to feel like they have the obligation to buy,” she said.

“Offering something the consumer would not normally find in stores is a good idea — you need to make the event special, otherwise why would they join?”

Inditex declined to say how much it is investing in the new format but the family-owned company is sitting on an 11 billion euro cash pile, giving it the firepower and a safety net to experiment with new ways of selling, even if success isn’t guaranteed. — Reuters