GT Capital commends FNG’s milestone 100% sale of Riverpark North commercial lots

June 30, 2025 | 2:20 pm

GT Capital Holdings, Inc. (GT Capital) is pleased to report the highly successful 100% sell-out of commercial lots at Riverpark North in General Trias, Cavite by Federal Land NRE Global, Inc. (FNG) as of May 2025. FNG is a joint venture between GT Capital’s wholly-owned property subsidiary Federal Land, Inc. (Federal Land) and Japan’s Nomura Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. At Riverpark North, the joint venture sold parcels ranging from 1,000 to 2,600 square meters that will be developed into office, retail, and other mixed-use facilities.

The acquisition of these commercial lots reflects foresight and strategic positioning by certain investors ahead of the completion of the Cavite-Laguna Expressway (CALAX) interchange. This completion maximizes future connectivity and commercial potential. The sale of commercial lots is also expected to soon usher business activity and advance the growth of the Riverpark township.

“We commend FNG for the successful 100% sale of its commercial lots at Riverpark North, a significant milestone that not only strengthens our business portfolio but also unlocks new opportunities for development and economic activity in the area,” said GT Capital Senior Vice-President and Investor Relations Head Jose B. Crisol, Jr. “This milestone reflects our continued commitment to creating long-term value for our stakeholders and contributing to the growth of the communities we serve,” Mr. Crisol continued.

Given the encouraging take-up of commercial lots, a second phase is expected to be launched within the second quarter of 2026 in time for the completion of the CALAX interchange, the UNIQLO Logistics Facility, and the new SM City General Trias. With these strategic developments, GT Capital is optimistic that FNG will be a key player in solidifying Cavite’s position as a rising investment destination.

“We are thrilled to see such strong interest in Riverpark’s Central Business District,” said FNG President Thomas F. Mirasol. “We share the vision of our clients in the nearterm potential of General Trias and Cavite as a growth hub and commercial center, and we are already preparing to deliver more innovations within the township.”

Beyond commercial, Riverpark also champions lifestyle and residential growth. Yume at Riverpark, FNG’s award-winning Japan-inspired residential enclave, continues to draw interest from discerning homebuyers seeking thoughtfully designed homes in a vibrant, well-connected township. The community is preparing to unveil its house-and-lot product within the year, featuring five home designs by renowned firm, Lor Calma & Partners. Inspired by different life stages, these houses will feature Japanese design elements, while adapting to Filipino lifestyles and preferences. From future-ready infrastructure to green spaces and walkable living, Riverpark is gearing up to be a major Cavite destination.

Federal Land’s deliberate shift to horizontal projects resulted in strong reservation sales of P5.9 billion in the first quarter, up 49%. Apart from the full sell-out of Riverpark North Commercial Lots, this was driven by strong take-up at other strategic developments, particularly at The Seasons Residences in BGC, Taguig and Phase One of the Hartwood Village in Biñan, Laguna.

Spotlight is BusinessWorld’s sponsored section that allows advertisers to amplify their brand and connect with BusinessWorld’s audience by publishing their stories on the BusinessWorld Web site. For more information, send an email to online@bworldonline.com.

Join us on Viber at https://bit.ly/3hv6bLA to get more updates and subscribe to BusinessWorld’s titles and get exclusive content through www.bworld-x.com.

Current account deficit seen to narrow, Philippine central bank says

June 30, 2025 | 1:31 pm

The main office of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas in Manila. — BW FILE PHOTO

MANILA – The Philippine central bank is forecasting the country’s current account deficit to narrow to 3.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) this year and to 2.5% next year, compared to a previous estimate of 3.9% for both years, it said in a statement on Monday.

The balance of payments is projected to be at a deficit of 1.3% of GDP this year, and 0.5% next year, compared with the previous forecast of 0.8% for both years, it said.

The revisions reflect global uncertainties that could potentially dampen investor confidence, the central bank said, but the country still has enough liquidity to cushion the economy against external headwinds, it added.

Gross international reserves are expected to dip slightly to $104 billion this year, down from $106.3 billion in 2024, before rebounding to $105 billion next year, the central bank said.

The bank’s forecasts for remittances from Filipinos living and working abroad remain unchanged, and are projected to grow 2.8% this year to $35.5 billion, and by a further 3% in 2026 to $36.5 billion.

Last week, the government lowered its growth target for this year and for 2026 to 2028, citing the economic impact of tensions in the Middle East as well as shifts in U.S. trade policies.

Growth for 2025 is now projected at 5.5%-6.5%, down from the government’s earlier forecast of 6%-8%. Targets for 2026 to 2028 now stand at 6%-7%, down from the previous range of 6%-8%. — Reuters

DICT’s 2 e-government platforms received awards in Singapore

June 30, 2025 | 1:00 pm

DICT-OL — Photo shows DICT Undersecretary for E-Government David Almirol, Jr. and Joseph Simon Araneta Marcos receiving the Philippines’ GovMedia Awards in Singapore.

The Philippine government’s modernization efforts are receiving global recognition at the GovMedia Awards 2025 in Singapore where the eGovPH Super App won the E-Governance Project of the Year and e-Government Data Exchange Platform (eGovDX) as Digital Transformation of the Year.

These awards affirm President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.’s vision of bringing government services closer to citizens through secure, user-friendly digital tools. He emphasizes that digitalization isn’t merely about convenience — it’s a powerful weapon against inefficiency, corruption, and red tape. Streamlined digital services also lead to faster planning, more reliable data, and enhanced coordination across government agencies.

The eGovPH Super App integrates both national and local services — covering digital ID, travel, health, public safety, and more — under one platform. To date, it has enabled over 150 million transactions and boasts more than 13 million users.

Meanwhile, the eGovDX platform, which links over 1,000 government services, has processed more than 500 million transactions. It was recognized as the “Digital Transformation of the Year” for its secure, interoperable ecosystem that enhances data privacy and promotes efficiency.

For DICT Undersecretary for E-Government David Almirol, Jr., the focus extends beyond efficiency to visibility. “People need to feel that government is working for them. That means faster service, zero lines, and more transparency,” Mr. Almirol said.

Mr. Almirol added that while international recognition is gratifying, the real reward is tangible: no more long queues at dawn, vital services delivered straight to citizens’ phones, and, most importantly, renewed public trust.

A cornerstone of this transformation is the national ID system — now covering 87% of Filipino citizens — which supports secure identity verification across services.

With both platforms gaining traction, DICT is urging all government agencies to integrate their services into this unified ecosystem. “The job isn’t done. This is about building a government that works better — for every Filipino, every day,” Mr. Almirol said.

Spotlight is BusinessWorld’s sponsored section that allows advertisers to amplify their brand and connect with BusinessWorld’s audience by publishing their stories on the BusinessWorld Web site. For more information, send an email to online@bworldonline.com.

Join us on Viber at https://bit.ly/3hv6bLA to get more updates and subscribe to BusinessWorld’s titles and get exclusive content through www.bworld-x.com.

Beaten up Philippine peso set for reprieve as crude retreats

June 30, 2025 | 10:42 am

The worst may be over for the Philippine peso as falling oil prices boost the outlook for an economy that’s heavily reliant on oil imports.

The peso, which tumbled over 3% earlier this month before trimming losses, may end this quarter somewhere around its current level of 56.5 to the US dollar, according to strategists at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., ING Financial Markets and Wells Fargo Securities.

The peso was battered earlier in April as the outbreak of the Israel-Iran war pushed up crude prices, worsening the outlook for economies such as the Philippines that are depended on energy imports. The ceasefire between the two nations has since seen the commodity come down about 15% from its highs.

“The peso’s advance is due to the reversal of oil prices,” said Wee Khoon Chong, a senior Asia Pacific market strategist at BNY in Hong Kong. “The normalization of crude oil prices is having a greater impact than domestic drivers such as dovish central bank and weakening growth outlook.”

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas this month cut its key interest rate for the second time this year and suggested there was scope for further easing as inflation was likely to remain modest. At the same time, policymakers said they remained “very vigilant” about Middle East developments which may spur a sharper increase in crude costs.

Broad weakness in the US dollar has also helped the peso pare this month’s losses. The greenback has faltered amid concern over America’s fiscal deficits and also due to increasing expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.

“Our rationale for dollar depreciation stems from a Federal Reserve that is likely to cut more than markets are priced for and a US economy that is likely to slow quicker than peer economies,” said Brendan McKenna, an emerging-market strategist at Wells Fargo in New York.

President Donald Trump has said US and Iranian officials will meet this week, helping to boost optimism that the conflict won’t escalate into a wider regional war.

“We expect the risk premium from the Middle-East tensions to dissipate which will lead to a slight recovery in the peso,” said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ in Singapore. “Broad dollar weakness” should also support the currency, he said. — Bloomberg

Japan’s ‘death-tainted’ homes gain appeal as property prices soar

June 30, 2025 | 9:57 am

tokyo-1141165_1920 — STOCK PHOTO | Image by louisredon from Pixabay

TOKYO – The house that property consultant and ghost investigator Kazutoshi Kodama regularly surveys has a grim history: seven years ago, an elderly woman hanged herself in the bathroom and last year her son died alone, his body undiscovered for roughly 10 days.

Mr. Kodama says he has stayed in the house – located in a quiet residential area in Chiba near Tokyo – from 10 p.m. to 6 a.m. nearly 20 times, monitoring with four video cameras, a thermal camera, an electromagnetic field meter, an air pressure gauge, a thermometer and an IC recorder. He takes notes of the readings every hour.

When he is satisfied there are no paranormal phenomena such as unexplained electromagnetic disturbances, he will issue a certificate deeming the property free of ghosts.

In Japan, homes where murders or suicides have occurred are classified as “jiko bukken” or “misfortunate properties” that may provoke psychological distress for new owners or tenants. So are homes with “socially isolated” deaths – the most common type of misfortunate property where bodies are not found for some time and sufficient decay has set in to warrant special cleaning services or even the replacement of floors and wallpaper.

Modern thinking around misfortunate properties has been shaped by Japan’s ancient Shinto religion which holds that when a person dies with regrets, their spirit lingers on earth, often at the site of their death, bearing grudges or overwhelmed by grief.

“Finding renters used to be virtually impossible,” said Mr. Kodama, who founded his company, Kachimode, three years ago to offer what he calls ghost investigation services for prospective buyers and tenants.

“But with rising real estate prices, people have begun considering misfortunate properties as an option.”

Japan’s property prices have rocketed on a surge in construction material and labor costs as well as an influx of overseas investors, attracted by a weak yen and the relative cheapness of local real estate.

The average price for a second-hand 70-square-meter condominium in Tokyo’s 23 wards, for example, jumped by more than a third in May from a year earlier to 100.9 million yen ($697,000), according to real estate research firm Tokyo Kantei.

AN OLDER, LONELIER SOCIETY

Japan’s rapidly ageing population has led to more socially isolated deaths. The national policy agency’s first-ever report on the issue said there were nearly 21,900 cases last year where the death was not discovered for eight or more days.

The trend is such that the elderly can find it difficult to rent as owners worry their properties may one day become stigmatized.

Partly to mitigate this problem, the central government in 2021 issued guidelines recommending that three years after such a death, homes can shed their misfortunate property labels, potentially making it easier to find tenants.

But owners and agents still need to make disclosures about the property’s history to all prospective buyers and to renters if they inquire.

The guidelines have spurred interest in misfortunate properties. Although Kodama may be unique in offering ghost investigative services, other real estate brokers are also seeking to capitalize on this emerging market.

They say that some younger people have become more open to living in misfortunate properties while both domestic and overseas investors – among them many Chinese – are attracted by potential high yields.

“Investors don’t care (about the property’s history) because they won’t live there,” said Akira Ookuma, founder of broker Happy Planning, adding that some hike rents after three years.

Brokers also note that whereas the site of a murder may have to be sold for 80% below regular market prices or even fail to sell at all, for other misfortunate properties, the discount can be a relatively small 20%.

MarksLife, which offers services for misfortunate properties such as ceremonies for lost souls performed by a Buddhist monk, says the properties it handles have an average investment return of 8.4%.

By contrast, a studio apartment in central Tokyo has an expected average return of 3.55%, according to a CBRE survey.

Japan’s misfortunate properties are only going to rise in number, real estate brokers say.

People aged 65 or above living alone currently account for 14% of all Japanese households but in 20 years’ time, they will form a fifth, the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research estimates.

Mr. Kodama has yet to sign off on the Chiba property – one he now rents with plans to sublet – as ghost-free. But he says he’s done more than 70 investigations and only a fraction have revealed phenomena such as electromagnetic disturbances.

For some prospective buyers, his certificate might be enough. For others, though, any misfortunate property is going to be a bridge too far.

“Even with discounts, I’m going to stay away … It’s not just the potential for ghosts; I’m just creeped out by the unusual and unfortunate histories,” said Mari Shimamura, a 24-year-old office worker. – Reuters

What’s in Trump’s tax-cut bill making its way through the US Congress?

June 30, 2025 | 9:53 am

WASHINGTON – U.S. Senate Republicans are moving forward on President Donald Trump‘s sweeping tax-cut and spending bill that includes major elements of his domestic agenda.

The Senate advanced the bill and is set to consider numerous amendments before final passage. The bill will then return to the Republican-controlled House of Representatives for final passage before Mr. Trump can sign it into law. Here are some details of what is in the bill:

TEMPORARY VS. PERMANENT TAX BREAKS

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that the version of the bill the Senate moved ahead on Saturday night will add about $3.2 trillion to the nation’s debt over the next decade. That’s higher than the estimated $2.8 trillion cost of the version of the bill passed by the House last month, largely because the Senate version makes permanent an array of tax cuts that the House version would have allowed to expire in a few years.

TAX BREAK	CURRENT LAW	HOUSE VERSION	SENATE VERSION
Child tax credit	$2,000 per child, drops to $1,000 in 2026	Raised to $2,500 through 2028, then reverts to $2,000, indexed for inflation.	Permanent increase to $2,200, indexed to inflation.
Standard deduction	$30,000 for married couple, drops by about half in 2026	Temporary increase to $32,000 through 2028, back to $30,000 after that.	Permanent increase to $32,000 for married couples starting in 2026
Business research and development costs	Amortized over 5 years, 15 years for foreign research	100% expensing for domestic research through 2029, then reverts	100% expensing for domestic research permanently
Bonus depreciation for business equipment purchases	40% this year, 20% in 2026, 0% after that	100% through 2029, then phases out	100% permanently
Business interest expenses	Up to 30% of earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT)	Expands this break to include depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) through 2029	Expands this break to include EBITDA permanently

STATE AND LOCAL TAX DEDUCTION

The Senate version raises to $40,000 the maximum deduction for state and local tax payments, with annual inflation adjustments. That deduction will revert to its current $10,000 level after 2029. An earlier version agreed to in the House would have kept the deduction at $40,000 after 2026.

DEDUCTION FOR OLDER AMERICANS

The Senate bill would provide a federal income tax deduction of $6,000 per year for people over 65, the earlier House version would have offered a $4,000 deduction. Both would end after 2028.

NO TAX ON TIPS

The Senate bill would provide a deduction of up to $25,000 for tipped income through 2028. The House version would not cap the deduction.

RETALIATORY (SECTION 899) TAX

Both the House and Senate initially included a provision that would have allowed the U.S. to impose new taxes on residents, businesses and other entities from countries that are found to impose “unfair foreign taxes.”

However, this section was removed after advice from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said his tax negotiations with G7 nations were progressing.

DEBT CEILING

The Senate bill would raise the nation’s debt ceiling by $5 trillion; the House version had called for a $4 trillion increase. Congress must act on this by sometime this summer or risk triggering a default on the nation’s $36.2 trillion in debt.

STOCK PHOTO | Image by jcomp from Freepik

CLEAN ENERGY PROJECTS

The Senate bill would roll back clean-energy incentives created by President Joe Biden’s 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, effectively repealing the incentives for solar and wind immediately. The Senate language also proposes a new tax on these projects if they cannot prove their products are made without Chinese parts, as well as a new tax break for coal production.

MEDICAID

Both bills would clamp down on “provider taxes,” which states levy on Medicaid providers as a way to boost federal funding. The Senate version delays the implementation of these changes until 2028, when these provider taxes would start to gradually decrease. The Senate also included an extra $25 billion for rural hospitals after several Republican senators balked at how these changes could impact providers in their states.

SPORTS TEAMS

The Senate version does not include language from the House bill that would have cut a tax break for sports-team owners in half.

COURTS

The current version of the Senate bill omits language meant to limit U.S. judges’ power to block federal policies nationwide, after the nonpartisan Senate parliamentarian ruled the policy does not align with the chamber’s rules for this specific budget process.

Ukraine on track to withdraw from Ottawa anti-personnel mines treaty, Zelenskiy decree shows

June 30, 2025 | 9:48 am

UKRAINE-CRISIS-ZELENSKIY-SINGAPORE — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, June 2, 2024. — REUTERS

KYIV – President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Sunday he had signed a decree to pull Ukraine out of the Ottawa Convention banning the production and use of anti-personnel mines as a necessary step in view of Russian tactics in their 40-month-old war.

Ukraine ratified the convention in 2005.

Other countries bordering Russia, notably Finland, Poland and the three ex-Soviet Baltic states – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – have either withdrawn from the convention or indicated that they would do so.

Mr. Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address that Russia had never been a party to the convention “and is using anti-personnel mines with utmost cynicism” along with other weapons, including ballistic missiles.

“This is a hallmark of Russian killers. To destroy life by all means at their disposal. … We see how our neighbors in Europe react to this threat,” he said.

“We also know the complexities of the withdrawal procedure when it is conducted during war. We take this political step and give a signal to our political partners on what to focus on. This concerns all countries that border Russia,” he said.

Anti-personnel mines, Mr. Zelenskiy said, are “often the instrument for which nothing can be substituted for defense purposes.”

Russia has used anti-personnel mines extensively in parts of Ukraine where its forces have been operating. Ukraine sees the clearing of such mines as a key element in post-war recovery.

The decree appearing on the president’s website calls for support for a Ukrainian foreign ministry proposal to “withdraw Ukraine from the Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production and Transfer of Anti-Personnel Mines and on their Destruction of September 18, 1997.”

A senior Ukrainian lawmaker, Roman Kostenko, said that parliamentary approval was still needed to withdraw from the treaty.

“This is a step that the reality of war has long demanded. Russia is not a party to this Convention and is massively using mines against our military and civilians,” Mr. Kostenko, secretary of the Ukrainian parliament’s committee on national security, defense and intelligence, said on his Facebook page.

“We cannot remain tied down in an environment where the enemy has no restrictions,” he added, saying that the legislative decision must definitively restore Ukraine’s right to effectively defend its territory.

Russia has intensified its offensive operations in Ukraine in recent months, using significant superiority in manpower.

Mr. Kostenko did not say when the issue would be debated in parliament. – Reuters

China rolls over $3.4 billion loans to Pakistan, say sources

June 30, 2025 | 9:36 am

KARACHI, Pakistan – China has rolled over $3.4 billion in loans to Pakistan, two senior Pakistani government officials told Reuters on Sunday, in a move that will help boost Islamabad’s foreign exchange reserves, a requirement of the International Monetary Fund.

Beijing rolled over $2.1 billion, which has been in Pakistan’s central bank’s reserves for the last three years, and refinanced another $1.3 billion commercial loan, which Islamabad had paid back two months ago, the sources said.

The officials asked not to be named as they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly ahead of an official announcement.

Another $1 billion from Middle Eastern commercial banks and $500 million from multilateral financing have also been received, one of the officials said.

“This brings our reserves in line with the IMF target,” he said.

The loans, especially those from China, are critical to shoring up Pakistan’s low foreign reserves, which the IMF required to be over $14 billion at the end of the current fiscal year on June 30.

Pakistani authorities say that the country’s economy has stabilized through ongoing reforms under a $7 billion IMF bailout. – Reuters

Trump tells Fox News he has group of wealthy people to buy TikTok

June 30, 2025 | 9:32 am

STOCK PHOTO | Image by antonbe from Pixabay

WASHINGTON – U.S. President Donald Trump said in a Fox News interview broadcast on Sunday that he had found a buyer for the TikTok short-video app, which he described as a group of “very wealthy people” whose identities he will reveal in about two weeks.

Mr. Trump made the remarks in an interview on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo” program. He said the deal he is developing would probably need China’s approval to move forward and he predicted Chinese President Xi Jinping would likely approve it.

The U.S. president earlier this month had extended to September 17 a deadline for China-based ByteDance to divest the U.S. assets of TikTok despite a law that mandated a sale or shutdown without significant progress.

A deal had been in the works this spring that would have spun off TikTok’s U.S. operations into a new U.S.-based firm, majority-owned and operated by U.S. investors, but it was put on hold after China indicated it would not approve it following Trump’s announcements of steep tariffs on Chinese goods.

“We have a buyer for TikTok, by the way,” Mr. Trump said. “I think I’ll need probably China’s approval. I think President Xi will probably do it.”

A 2024 U.S. law required TikTok to stop operating by January 19 unless ByteDance had completed divesting the app’s U.S. assets or demonstrated significant progress toward a sale.

Mr. Trump, who credits the app with boosting his support among young voters in last November’s presidential election, has extended the deadline three times. – Reuters

Inflation likely picked up in June — poll

June 30, 2025 | 12:34 am

public market-vendor — A vendor tends to a customer at a public market in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines, Oct. 4, 2024. — REUTERS/ELOISA LOPEZ

HEADLINE INFLATION may have slightly picked up in June as stable food prices helped offset the spike in fuel prices, analysts said.

A BusinessWorld poll of 17 analysts yielded a median estimate of 1.5% for June inflation, accelerating from the 1.3% in May but still below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2-4% target range.

If realized, this would be the fastest clip in three months or since the 1.8% in March. However, it would be slower than the 3.7% print in June 2024.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will release its month-ahead inflation forecast for June on Monday, June 30.

The June inflation data will be released by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) on July 4.

Maybank Investment Banking Group Economics Research gave a June inflation forecast of 1.5%, citing a slower rise in food and power costs.

“Factors include sustained low inflation in key groups such as food and electricity which may offset some upside pressures from the increase in fuel cost in the last two weeks of the month due to rise in global fuel prices given the escalation in the Middle East conflict,” Maybank said.

Moody’s Analytics economist Sarah Tan, who expects inflation to have settled at 1.4% in June, said inflation in the food basket likely remained stable, “supported by a modest decline in rice prices.”

The PSA reported that rice prices declined further in June with regular milled rice averaging P42.77 per kilo from the P43.32 per kilo in mid-May.

“Our food-price tracker suggests that food inflation fell further — close to zero — but this should be offset fully by a temporary rebound in housing and utilities inflation to over 3%,” Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Emerging Asia Economist Miguel Chanco said.

Aris D. Dacanay, an economist for ASEAN at HSBC Global Research, noted that electricity rates in Metro Manila declined by 0.9% month on month in June due to lower generation charges.

Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) cut the overall rate by P0.1076 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) to P12.1552 per kWh in June from P12.2628 per kWh in the previous month. Generation charges fell by 0.9% to P7.3552 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) from May.

“We expect June inflation to settle at 1.6% yoy (year on year), up roughly 0.2% from the previous month. Electricity prices as well as cost of select non-rice food items delivered upside pressure to inflation,” Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa, chief economist at Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co., said.

Chinabank Research said inflation likely quickened due to higher pump prices, as well as rising costs of meat, vegetables, and education-related expenses at the start of the new school year.

FUEL PRICE SPIKE
Ms. Tan said the spike in fuel prices triggered by the conflict in the Middle East may have put upward pressure on the utilities basket.

In June, pump price adjustments stood at a net increase of P6.3 a liter for gasoline, P8.25 a liter for diesel and P6.5 a liter for kerosene.

“Retail gas prices surged 3% day-to-day on June 17 as a reaction to rising tensions between Iran and Israel, only to have slightly moderated in the tail-end of the month when tensions de-escalated,” Mr. Dacanay said.

Reuters on Friday reported that oil prices were set for their steepest weekly decline since March 2023, as the absence of significant supply disruption from the Iran-Israel conflict saw any risk premium evaporate.

“While global oil prices have eased following the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, the risk of renewed conflict remains and could drive prices higher again. Still, inflationary pressures may be tempered by declining rice prices,” Chinabank Research said.

ING Philippines said the increase in domestic pump prices “should be temporary” with prices expected to decline in July.

RATE CUT OUTLOOK
Bank of the Philippine Islands Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri, Jr. said inflation may start accelerating by September as “favorable base from rice will fade by then.”

“Headline prints will likely remain within BSP target which could allow them to cut once more before the end of 2025,” Mr. Neri said.

The Monetary Board delivered a second straight 25-basis-point (bp) cut at its June 19 meeting, bringing its policy rate to 5.25% amid a benign inflation outlook and slowing economic growth.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. also signaled they could deliver one more 25-bp cut this year.

The BSP slashed its inflation forecast to 1.6% for this year from 2.4%. It also expects inflation to settle at 3.4% for 2026 and 3.3% for 2027.

Security Bank Corp. Vice-President and Research Division Head Angelo B. Taningco said he expects inflation to be contained for the rest of the year, with his full-year forecast at 1.9%.

“Upside risks to our inflation outlook include global oil price shock triggered by resurgence of Israel-Iran conflict. We still expect a manageable inflation environment and another quarter-point policy rate cut by the BSP before the year ends,” Mr. Taningco said.

Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines (UnionBank), said he expects inflation to gradually rise to 2% by September and to end the year at 2.5%.

“We anticipate the BSP will continue its policy easing cycle, likely delivering a final 25-bp rate cut in October. This move would allow the central bank to assess the cumulative impact of its earlier rate adjustments while maintaining a supportive stance for growth,” Mr. Asuncion said.

Ms. Tan said the conflict in the Middle East could lead to sustained elevated global oil prices, which may mean higher domestic fuel and utility costs.

The Philippines, a net oil importer, is particularly vulnerable to global oil prices.

“Should these risks materialize, they could constrain the BSP’s scope for further policy easing, particularly if second-round effects begin to build. That said, in the absence of persistent supply shocks, inflation should stay within target,” Ms. Tan said.

For the full year, Moody’s inflation forecast stood at 2.2%.

For his part, Mr. Chanco said he sees ample room and an “urgent need” for two additional 25-bp rate cuts.

The Monetary Board’s remaining policy meetings this year are scheduled for Aug. 28, Oct. 9, and Dec. 11. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante

Trade uncertainty dampens PHL business sentiment

June 30, 2025 | 12:33 am

BGC-pedestrian — A woman crosses the street in Bonifacio Global City, Taguig City. — REUTERS

BUSINESS SENTIMENT in the Philippines turned less upbeat in the second quarter amid concerns over the impact of the Trump administration’s tariff policy on the economy, a survey by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed.

The latest BSP Business Expectations Survey showed the overall confidence index (CI) for businesses declined to 28.8% in the second quarter from 31.2% in the first quarter, and from 32.1% a year ago.

This was the lowest recorded CI since the 23.9% logged in the fourth quarter of 2022. It also marked the second quarter in a row that the index declined since the 44.5% CI in the fourth quarter of 2024.

The survey was conducted from April 4 to May 19, covering 1,527 firms nationwide.

A positive CI indicates that more respondents are optimistic than pessimistic.

“Philippine businesses were cautiously optimistic about the economy in the second quarter of the year. They were primarily concerned about the potential impact of reciprocal tariffs on Philippine exports to the United States and uncertainty over their implementation,” the BSP said in a report.

In April, US President Donald J. Trump announced a baseline 10% tariff on all its trading partners, as well as higher reciprocal tariffs on some countries. The Philippines was slapped with a 17% tariff, the second lowest among Southeast Asian countries.

While the reciprocal tariffs have been paused for 90 days until July 9, the baseline 10% tariff remains in place.

“The expected slowdown in business activity after the May midterm elections and the sugar off-milling season also weighed on business confidence,” the BSP said.

Businesses turned less optimistic for the third quarter, with the CI falling to 39.3% from 45.4% in the previous survey. This was the lowest since 38.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023.

For the next 12 months, firms were less upbeat, with the CI dropping to 51% from 56.4% in the previous quarter.

The BSP said businesses cited “expectations of fewer clients and orders due to expiring contracts and softer market conditions as a reason for their more cautious year-ahead economic outlook.”

Survey respondents expect the peso to appreciate against the dollar over the next 12 months but see an uptick in inflation.

Firms expect the peso to average P57.09 per dollar in the second quarter, P57.12 in the next quarter, and P57.14 for the next 12 months.

Firms also see inflation averaging 2.8% in the second quarter, 2.9% next quarter, and 3% for the next 12 months.

CONSUMER OUTLOOK
Meanwhile, Filipino consumers were more pessimistic in the second quarter but turned positive in their outlook for the third quarter, according to the BSP’s latest Consumer Expectations Survey (CES).

The survey showed the CI in the second quarter fell to -14% from -13% in the previous quarter, as consumers cited “higher inflation, lower family income, and fewer job opportunities” as the reasons for the downbeat sentiment.

A negative CI means more respondents are pessimistic than optimistic.

For the third quarter, the CI turned positive at 0.6% from -0.5% in the previous survey.

Consumer sentiment for the next 12 months dipped to 11.8% from the 12.4% in the previous survey.

Filipino consumers attributed the positive outlook to higher household income, more jobs and moderating inflation.

“Households expect that the inflation rate may increase in mid-2025 and over the next 12 months. However, inflation expectations are expected to ease during this period as the corresponding inflation rate diffusion indices declined from their Q1 2025 levels,” the BSP said.

Consumers expect inflation to average 3.7% in the next 12 months, a tad lower than the 3.8% in the previous survey.

For the second quarter CES, the BSP surveyed 5,444 households from April 2 to 15. — A.M.C.Sy

DTI eyes launch of Tatak Pinoy Strategy before SONA

June 30, 2025 | 12:32 am

Tatak-Pinoy-trade fair — VARIOUS food products are on display at a trade fair in Pasay City. — PHILIPPINE STAR/RYAN BALDEMOR

THE DEPARTMENT of Trade and Industry (DTI) is aiming to launch the multi-year Tatak Pinoy Strategy before President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) in late July.

“It is almost done; we are just fixing a few things, and then we are going to launch that. Actually, I have already tapped a big ad agency for that,” Trade Secretary Ma. Cristina A. Roque told reporters on the sidelines of the Wedding Fair on Friday.

“There are just a few tweaks needed… We hope for it to be launched before the SONA,” she added.

According to the Trade chief, the goal is for the Tatak Pinoy Strategy to help drive growth for local industries. She suggested that there be separate categories for small, medium, and large enterprises.

Ms. Roque said the strategy will be implemented in phases to allow adjustments.

“This will be mostly for industries first. And what I made them do is to divide it into phases so that it is not too complicated. So, we can tweak and adjust as we go along,” she said. “But we really need to launch this before the SONA.”

In a Facebook post last week, DTI said that the Tatak Pinoy Council had approved the draft Tatak Pinoy Strategy during its meeting on June 24.

The multi-year strategy is anchored on five pillars, which are human resources, infrastructure, innovation and technology, investments, and sound financial management.

“This milestone affirms our shared commitment to a whole-of-nation effort that will empower domestic enterprises, spur innovation, and reinforce our national identity in the global arena,” said DTI Chief of Staff and Assistant Secretary Englebert Josef G. Chua.

Meanwhile, Department of Science and Technology (DoST) Secretary Renato U. Solidum, Jr. said that the strategy will “ensure that the efforts we are doing in this administration will really make an impact on our micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and industries.”

The Tatak Pinoy Council is targeting to endorse the strategy to Malacañang for Mr. Marcos’ final approval.

“Once adopted, it will serve as the national framework to align government programs and investments with the goals of a resilient, inclusive, and globally competitive Bagong Pilipinas,” the DTI said.

The Tatak Pinoy Strategy is a product of the Proudly Filipino Act which was signed into law on Feb. 26, 2024.

Under the law, the strategy is expected to outline the plan “to incrementally and systematically expand and diversify the productive capabilities of domestic enterprises and empower them to produce and offer increasingly diverse and sophisticated products and services.”

The law also created the Tatak Pinoy Council, which is chaired by the DTI secretary and vice-chaired by the Department of Economy, Planning, and Development and Department of Finance secretaries.

Meanwhile, Ms. Roque said that its partnership with the Development Bank of the Philippines (DBP) that will help finance small business owners could be launched in July.

“It is almost done. They told me July is the target for the launch,” she said.

The partnership between the DTI and DBP will help provide financing options to sari-sari stores and market vendors through digital platforms.

In an interview early this year, she said the financing will have an initial funding of P500 million and will be piloted in Cebu.

The DTI also launched P1-billion funding for women-owned and -led MSMEs through Small Business Corp. (SBCorp) on Friday.

Under the funding, women-owned businesses can avail of P30,000 up to P20 million loans at a 1% monthly interest rate based on diminishing balance.

It has repayment terms of up to five years, and collateral will only be required for loans exceeding P5 million.

“Women are a vital driving force in our economy. In fact, more than half of newly registered businesses are owned or led by women,” said Ms. Roque.

“By providing accessible loans, we are empowering them further to grow their enterprises and create lasting opportunities for their families and communities,” she added.

According to SBCorp., the agency has already disbursed more than P8 billion in loans to women-led enterprises. — Justine Irish D. Tabile