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Iloilo City council appoints 2 reps for power franchise congressional hearings

THE ILOILO City Council has unanimously approved a resolution authorizing the city government to intervene in the ongoing deliberations in Congress on the franchise for the city’s electricity distributor. The resolution names Mayor Jose S. Espinosa III and Councilor Joshua C. Alim as representatives. Panay Electric Company, Inc. (PECO), the current licensee, has a pending renewal application for its 25-year franchise that will expire Jan. 2019. A new player, More Minerals Corp. (MMC), already has its application approved at the committee level. Councilor R. Leoni N. Gerochi, chair of the committee on transportation, energy and public utilities and sponsor of the resolution, noted that stakeholders were not consulted on the MMC application. “The purpose of the resolution is to protect the consumers,” he said. “This is our biggest chance to institute reforms. If we are successful in this, in the next 25 years, it will be easier for the next generation to fight for it,” he added. — Louine Hope U. Conserva

Hospitals in Isabela, Baguio, La Union, and Bayombong up for expansion

FOUR GOVERNMENT-owned hospitals in the northern Luzon area have been lined up for expansion after President Rodrigo R. Duterte recently signed laws corresponding to the improvement programs.
The medical facilities are: Southern Isabela General Hospital in Santiago City, Isabela; La Union Medical Center (LUMC) in Agoo, La Union; Baguio General Hospital and Medical Center (BGHMC); and Veterans Regional Hospital in Bayombong, Nueva Vizcaya.
Malacañang released the certified copies of the newly signed laws to reporters on Wednesday, Oct. 3.
Mr. Duterte signed Republic Act (RA) 11082 to upgrade the Southern Isabela General Hospital into a tertiary general hospital, and it will be renamed Southern Isabela Medical Center (SIMC).
The authorized bed capacity of the SIMC will also be “increased from 50 to 350 beds.”
SIMC will be placed “under the direct technical and administrative supervision of the Department of Health (DoH),” and its funding will be included in the annual General Appropriations Act.
RA 11083 is intended to upgrade the services and facilities of LUMC “by increasing its bed capacity to 300 (from 100) and establishing a trauma center therein, and authorizing the increase of its personnel.”
RA 11084, meanwhile, will increase the bed capacity of BGHMC to 800 beds from 500.
Under RA 11081, the Veterans Regional Hospital will be renamed Region II Trauma and Medical Center, with its bed capacity to be increased to 500 from 200, and “upgrading its services and professional health care, authorizing the increase of its medical personnel.” — Arjay L. Balinbin

Setting up signs

New signages along the Sta. Cruz trail of Mt. Apo, the country’s highest peak, have been installed to guide trekkers and constantly remind them of the “Leave No Trace Principles” of eco-tourism. The project was jointly undertaken by the local government of Sta. Cruz, Department of Environment and Natural Resources, ASEAN Heritage Parks Programme, and GIZ-COSERAM program.

No invite for Cebu Pacific on Davao City council’s probe on airfare rates

BUDGET CARRIER Cebu Pacific has yet to be invited to the Davao City council’s Oct. 8 hearing on airfare rates, according to Cebu Pacific Director for Corporate Communications Charo Logarta-Lagamon. “So far as I know, we have not received any notice or invitation or any letter of that sort regarding high airfare,” she said in an interview. Nonetheless, she said they are ready to work with the council on its inquiry over alleged high airline costs to and from Davao City, which affects tourism as well as investments. “I think we need also to validate when the bookings happened… there are seasonal factors: Was it a weekend? Was there a holiday? There are many factors that affect why a fare is higher than the other fares,” she noted. She added that supply and the demand play a major factor in airfare rates, which is affected not just by the number of passengers but also the number of airlines and flights available. — Maya M. Padillo

3rd Sardines Congress tackles sustainability

THE 3rd National Sardines Industry Congress opened yesterday, Oct. 3, in Zamboanga City, dubbed as the Sardines Capital of the Philippines. The three-day event is focusing on the sustainable use of the fish resource, which is a major industry in the Zamboanga Peninsula Region. In a statement, the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) said there will be “science sessions as well as industry-focused sessions” to be participated in by representatives from the local and national government, the commercial sector, academe, and non-government organizations. “The key, after all, is getting the most out of this fish resource without compromising sustainability,” BFAR said. Last Sept. 26, a consultation among stakeholders was also held to discuss the proposed National Sardines Management Framework Plan for Mindanao Cluster. The annual event is co-organized by BFAR, Southern-Philippines (SOPHIL) Fishing Association Inc., Industrial Group of Zamboanga Inc., Philippine National Sardines Industry Foundation, and Philippines Sardine Industry Congress.

Nation at a Glance — (10/04/18)

News stories from across the nation. Visit www.bworldonline.com (section: The Nation) to read more national and regional news from the Philippines.

35-year-old unknown creates the world's most valuable startup

When Zhang Yiming first shopped the idea of a news aggregation app powered by artificial intelligence six years ago, investors including Sequoia Capital were skeptical.

Back then, the question was how a 29-year-old locally trained software engineer could outsmart the numerous news portals operated by the likes of social media behemoth Tencent Holdings Ltd. and extract profit where even Google had failed.
Zhang, now 35, proved them wrong. Today his company, Bytedance Ltd., is on its way to a more than $75 billion valuation — a price tag that surpasses Uber Technologies Inc. to top the world, according to CB Insights. The latest in a long line of investors who’ve come around is Softbank Group Corp., which is said to be planning to invest about $1.5 billion. Bytedance now counts KKR & Co., General Atlantic and even Sequoia as backers. Much of its lofty valuation stems from the creation of an internet experience that’s a cross between Google and Facebook.
“The most important thing is that we are not a news business. We are more like a search business or a social media platform,” Zhang said in a 2017 interview, adding that he employs no editors or reporters. “We are doing very innovative work. We are not a copycat of a U.S. company, both in product and technology.”
What’s remarkable is Zhang was able to do it all without taking money from the twin suns of China’s internet: Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent. It’s the first startup to emerge from the dwindling cohort of mobile players that hasn’t sought protection or funds from either of the two. In fact, it’s often locked horns with them, in court and elsewhere. And it’s arguably more successful at engaging youthful audiences abroad.
The story of how Bytedance became a goliath begins with news site Jinri Toutiao but is tied more closely to a series of smart acquisitions and strategic expansions that propelled the company into mobile video and even beyond China. By nurturing a raft of successful apps, it’s gathered a force of hundreds of millions of users and now poses a threat to China’s largest internet operators. The company has evolved into a multi-faceted empire spanning video service Tik Tok — known as Douyin locally — and a plethora of platforms for everything from jokes to celebrity gossip.
But as with Facebook at the same stage of its life, Bytedance now faces questions over when or even how it will start making a profit.
“The predominant issue in China’s internet is that the growth in users and the time each user spends online has slowed dramatically. It is becoming a zero-sum game, and costs for acquiring users and winning their time are increasing,” said Jerry Liu, an analyst with UBS. “What Bytedance has created is a group of apps that are very good at attracting users and retaining their time, in part, leveraging the traffic from Jinri Toutiao.”
Despite its seeming isolation, it’s become the most successful major Chinese tech company in creating an international base, venturing via apps like Tik Tok into the U.S., Southeast Asia and Japan. Even Tencent’s WeChat had to pump the brakes on its own overseas initiative four years ago.
What Zhang perceived in 2012 was that Chinese mobile users struggled to find information they cared about on many apps. That’s partly because of the country’s draconian screening of information. Zhang thought he could do better than incumbents such as Baidu, which enjoyed a near-monopoly on search. The latter conflated advertising with search results, a botch that would later haunt the company via a series of medical scandals.
There was little Toutiao could do about censorship — in fact, the company’s been repeatedly excoriated by authorities for failing to filter content and been forced to clean up its services with alarming regularity. But Zhang held fast to his early vision of delivering content that mattered to users through AI. The closest American equivalent was Facebook’s news feed.
After falling flat with the bulk of China’s venture capital stalwarts, Zhang eventually secured investment from Susquehanna International Group. It began offering the news app in August 2012. The platform studied what users read and searched for, then referred information and articles based on those habits. The more people used it, the better the experience, and the longer people stayed. By mid-2014, daily active users had climbed to more than 13 million. Sequoia finally came to the table, leading a funding round of $100 million.
“We push information, not by queries, by news recommendations,” Zhang said in the interview last year.
But it was video that really propelled Bytedance into the big leagues.
Streaming services have always been popular in China. Even during the desktop era, companies like YY Inc. championed a model where people sang and danced in virtual showrooms to win online gifts from fans. Later, outfits like Kuaishou fueled that penchant for zany showmanship. Bytedance saw an opportunity, but made its videos much shorter: 15 seconds, to be precise.
Around September 2016, it quietly launched Douyin. The app let users shoot and edit footage, add filters and share them across platforms like the Twitter-like Weibo or WeChat. That format appealed to shorter attention spans and became an instant hit, so much so that WeChat later blocked direct access to the app.
A year after, Bytedance acquired Musical.ly for $800 million. It saw synergy between the buzzy teen U.S. social video app created by Chinese co-founders and Tik Tok, and is now in the process of combining them. Tik Tok and Douyin had a combined 500 million users as of July.
The challenge now is in translating buzz and viewership into dollars. The company is expanding its ad sales operations, particularly for Toutiao. Several media buying agencies said its massive reach and the attention it draws is a natural lure for marketers. Many said Bytedance is even pulling spending away from Tencent. Bytedance, which previously cut a deal with Cheetah Mobile to sell ad space, has brought most of its ad sales in-house, said Kenneth Tan, the chief digital officer for Mindshare China, an agency.
“From a pricing perspective, they are expensive for what they are. They definitely charge a premium,” Tan said. “But that has not been an inhibitor for the large brands.”
There’s a big caveat, however. Brands remain cautious about Bytedance’s regulatory issues, particularly given Beijing’s historic unpredictability around censorship. This year, it had to shut down a popular joke-sharing app in April just as it appeared to take off. It also suspended Douyin and its bread-and-butter Toutiao around the same time.
That’s “a potential risk to brand collaboration,” said Sherry Pan, general manager for China at the agency Magna Global.
 

Punched in the face: Plunge in Chinese tourists rattles Thailand

By Bloomberg
Chinese tourist arrivals in Thailand are tumbling, dragging down overall visitor growth in the Southeast Asian nation and dimming the outlook for an economy that relies on spending by holidaymakers.
Travelers from China slid 12 percent in August, the biggest drop in more than a year, keeping the overall pace of visitor growth near a 16-month low. Thai officials are rattled as Chinese visitors are the top source of foreign receipts in an industry that makes up about a fifth of the economy.
The trigger for the drop was a tour boat accident off Phuket in July that killed dozens of Chinese holidaymakers, sparking safety concerns. Thailand’s image in China has also been hurt by a dengue outbreak, the strength of the baht and, most recently, a viral video of an airport guard apparently punching a Chinese tourist.
“The negative growth in Chinese arrivals is a downside risk in the second half of 2018,” said Kampon Adireksombat, the chief economist at Kasikorn Securities Pcl in Bangkok. The tourism slowdown and the impact of global trade disputes will cut Thai economic growth to 4.2 percent next year from an estimated 4.5 percent in 2018, he said.
The Thai military government this week moved to limit the damage from the video of the attack on the Chinese tourist, saying on Twitter that Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha regrets the incident — underlining the administration’s sensitivity to bad press on the mainland.
The tourism sector has a history of bouncing back from setbacks. The Bank of Thailand expects arrivals to improve and anticipates over 38 million visitors this year — equivalent to more than half the Thai population. Other government figures estimate that Chinese travelers contribute close to a third of 2.09 trillion baht ($65 billion) in foreign tourism revenue.
The recovery may take longer this time around because so many Chinese died in the boat accident, Kampon said.
Tourism trade bodies are urging the government to take steps such as temporarily providing double-entry visas or visa-free travel to Chinese visitors. Investors are fretting too: the Stock Exchange of Thailand Tourism & Leisure Index is down 14 percent this year, compared with a 0.3 percent decline in the overall stock market.
The Tourism Council of Thailand predicts Chinese arrivals will plunge around a quarter to 1.9 million in October through December from a year earlier.
“There used to be seven to 12 charter flights per day from China to Krabi,” said the council’s President Ittirith Kinglake. “Now it’s down to three flights per day with some having two to three people on board.”
For all the challenges, overall arrivals continue to expand: Bangkok is the world’s most visited city, and the beach resorts of Krabi and Phuket lure travelers from all over the world.
Indeed, the environmental impact of the sheer number of tourists can also be a problem. For instance, Thailand on Tuesday indefinitely shut Maya Bay on Phi Phi Island, which was made famous by the year 2000 movie “The Beach” starring Leonardo DiCaprio.
But the nation has to act quickly to restore the confidence of Chinese travelers, said Vichit Prakobkosol, the president of the Association of Thai Travel Agents.
“Otherwise, we could lose Chinese visitors to other countries,” said Vichit. “If we can fix this soon, Thailand can recover.”

Stocks in Asia Trade Mixed, Euro Pushes Higher

By Bloomberg
Asian stocks traded mixed following a volatile U.S. session as investors weighed continuing concerns in Indonesia and Italy and strength in commodity prices. The euro climbed on reports the Italian government pulled back its budget-deficit plans.
Shares fell in Japan, fluctuated in Hong Kong and rose in Australia. Indonesia’s rupiah plumbed a new 20-year low as rising oil prices add to souring sentiment that’s left the nation’s central bank struggling to prevent further weakness. The Australian dollar fell briefly as weak building data fanned concerns of a slowdown. Crude oil futures steadied in New York above $75 a barrel, near the highest level in almost four years.
Italian assets remain volatile as the country’s budget confrontation with the EU raised the risk of a debt crisis. The euro rose after the Corriere della Sera reported Italy’s draft budget plan will pledge to cut the deficit to 2 percent in 2021, reversing the government’s initial proposal. The yield on 10-year Italian government bonds touched the highest level in more than four years Tuesday. In the U.S., retailers slipped after Amazon.com raised the minimum wage for all its employees, with the S&P 500 Index edging lower.
Investors remain on edge this week with the market impact of European politics and emerging market strains still high on the agenda. A close call between a U.S. and a Chinese warship in the disputed South China Sea in recent days added to tensions between two countries already embroiled in an escalating trade war. Meanwhile, Treasury yields remained near the top of the recent range as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell welcomed increases in Americans’ wages while expressing confidence that low unemployment won’t spur a takeoff in prices that would force him to hike interest rates more aggressively.
Elsewhere, the pound traded near three-week lows after Boris Johnson won cheers at the U.K. Conservative Party’s annual conference with an attack on Theresa May’s Brexit plan, but stopped short of calling for her to be removed as prime minister. In India, focus is back on the country’s financial sector after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government took control of Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services Ltd., promising to end the group’s string of defaults.
These are the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.4 percent as of 12:48 p.m. Tokyo time. Topix index slid 0.7 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.2 percent after swinging between gains and losses at least six times Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.3 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 Index rose 0.2 percent.
Currencies
The Japanese yen was little changed at 113.77 per dollar. The offshore yuan slid less than 0.1 percent to 6.8816 per dollar. The euro advanced 0.3 percent to $1.1581. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1 percent.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.07 percent. Australia’s 10-year yield fell about 3 basis points to 2.64 percent.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell less than 0.05 percent to $75.22 a barrel. Gold rose 0.3 percent to $1,207.12 an ounce. LME copper was little changed at $6,283.50 per metric ton.

Today in global market news

By Bloomberg
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he sees inflation risks in the U.S. economy as muted. An international survey found that a hefty majority of people don’t trust U.S. President Donald Trump. And the death toll continues climbing in Indonesia. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about.
‘Muted’ U.S. Inflation Risk
Fed Chairman Powell welcomed recent increases in Americans’ wages while expressing confidence that low unemployment won’t spur a takeoff in prices that would force him to hike interest rates aggressively. “The rise in wages is broadly consistent with observed rates of price inflation and labor productivity growth and therefore does not point to an overheating labor market,” Powell said in a speech Tuesday in Boston. “Further, higher wage growth alone need not be inflationary.”
Indonesia’s Tragedy
The death toll from the Sulawesi earthquake and tsunami topped 1,200 as authorities scrambled to bring food and medicines to thousands displaced by Indonesia’s deadliest such disaster in more than a decade. Thousands of military and police personnel joined relief and rescue workers in the worst affected areas of Sulawesi island, now in its fourth day since the 7.4 magnitude earthquake and subsequent tsunami unleashed a trail of devastation. President Joko Widodo ordered officials to intensify relief and rescue operations and boost the supply of essential items as reports of looting of food and other goods emerged.
Little Trust in Trump
President Donald Trump has shaken global faith in U.S. leadership, an international survey found, as confidence in him lags behind other major world leaders including Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping. The Pew Research Center found 70 percent of more than 26,000 people surveyed across 25 countries this year said they lacked confidence in Trump, compared with 27 percent who said they trusted the American president’s handling of international affairs. Still, respondents in almost every country said it would be better for the U.S. to remain as the top global power, rather than China, which is seen rising.
Bitcoin Burn
Bitcoin’s lone U.S. investment trust is feeling the burn as investors reconsider hefty fund fees and its underlying cryptocurrency fails to buck this year’s downward trend. Grayscale Bitcoin Investment Trust, or GBTC, which tracks Bitcoin’s market price, has seen its net asset value hit its lowest point since the cryptocurrency’s price surged late last year. Shares of GBTC are down around 80 percent since Bitcoin hit a high of $19,511 in mid-December. The price of Bitcoin has dropped nearly 66 percent during the same time period, making the premium to the cryptocurrency almost nonexistent. The fund has traded at more than twice its net asset value.
Tencent Music’s IPO
Tencent Music Entertainment Group, the online-music arm of China’s largest social-media company, filed for a initial public offering in a continuing surge of U.S. listings by Chinese companies. The music-streaming site listed its offering size as $1 billion in a filing Tuesday with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The amount is likely a placeholder and may change. While some of their U.S. counterparts have held back on public offerings, Chinese startups have enthusiastically pursued listings this year. On U.S. exchanges alone, $7.4 billion has been raised in IPOs by China-based businesses, almost double the $3.9 billion total in 2017, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Chambers flag risk from contracting ban

LOCAL AND FOREIGN business groups voiced their opposition to a legislative measure backed by President Rodrigo R. Duterte that bans project and seasonal employment schemes, arguing that it would hit micro-, small- and medium-scale enterprises (MSMEs) hard and could reverse recent employment gains.
In their Oct. 1 joint statement on Senate Bill No. 1826, or “The Security of Tenure and End of Endo Act of 2018,” the Employers Confederation of the Philippines (ECoP), the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI) and the Philippine Exporters Confederation, Inc. (Philexport) said that “existing laws already ensure the appropriate benefits, safeguards and policy environment for project, seasonal and contract workers.”
Existing rules, they explained, “allow mutually beneficial labor and market relationships where legitimate job contracting is used as a business model mainly to tap available expertise and meet surges in market demand.”
“… Senate Bill No. 1826 has the effect of totally abolishing all forms of job contracting,” the groups said, noting that “[t]he bill… outlaws project and seasonal kinds of employment, which means that project and seasonal workers shall be considered regular workers.”
“It is notable how legitimate job contracting has been an important source of industry competitiveness worldwide, with companies focusing on their core competence while contracting out the other tasks to third parties,” they explained.
“It is impractical and costly for an enterprise to maintain workers beyond what it needs, operating in a highly competitive trade environment that requires just-in-time production.”
Sought for comment on Tuesday, the American Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines, Inc. (AmCham) and the European Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines (ECCP) said any misuse of contracting schemes can be addressed by better implementation of existing law.
“Members of the Joint Foreign Chambers of the Philippines believe that the Senate should not enact… SB 1826… into law in order to protect the livelihood of hundreds of thousands of workers now in legitimate job contracting arrangements,” AmCham Senior Advisor John D. Forbes said in a mobile phone message.
“Retaining the current law on job contracting but strengthening its implementation shall make the Philippines at par with other countries in the world and… therefore… globally competitive,” he added, citing close Philippine rivals Indonesia and Vietnam which “have more flexible contracting and employment laws that allow temporary work for as long as three years.”
For ECCP President Guenter Taus, SB 1826 “restricts the flexibility of enterprises to strategically choose which parts of their work processes to outsource, which will lead to increased cost of production.”
“Increased costs could make the Philippines less competitive as a production site,” Mr. Taus said in an e-mail. “… [E]nterprises may choose to simply eliminate low-skilled work currently outsourced to service providers by automation, redesigning of work processes or by transferring the work to other labor markets.
“… [A]buses of contractualization are not caused by the inadequacy of the law, but by lack of proper monitoring, implementation and enforcement of the law,” he added. “We advocate for the retention of the current law on job contracting and to improve implementation of the same.”
SB 1826 now awaits second-reading approval, while the House of Representatives approved its version on third and final reading on Jan. 29.
“If implemented, the Philippines will be the only country in the world to ban legitimate forms of job contracting,” ECoP, PCCI and Philexport claimed in their joint statement.
Mr. Duterte, who had vowed during his presidential campaign to abolish contractual employment schemes, certified the measure as a priority on Sept. 25, meaning both chambers of Congress can approve it on second and third reading on the same day.
In order to tighten rules against labor-only contracting that is already banned under current law, SB 1826 defines such arrangement as one where, among other characteristics already provided by law, workers of the job contractor are under the control and supervision of the hiring entity.
It also requires businesses to treat project and seasonal workers as regular employees and assures that the services of an employee — regardless of employment status or position — cannot be terminated except for just cause or other reasons under Presidential Decree No. 442, or the Labor Code of the Philippines, as amended.
The joint statement said ECoP particularly “believes that this is not good for business, particularly for MSMEs.”
SMEs are estimated to account for 99.6% of all businesses and 64.9% of all jobs in the Philippines.
“Smaller companies have to be able to adapt during busy or low periods. Being able to bring in more workers or scale back the work force to respond to fluctuations in demand is highly essential to business owners, especially for MSMEs,” the statement read.
“… [T]o ban all forms of job contracting would be disastrous, particularly to MSMEs. Higher cost of doing business plus lower productivity rate will give a lot of our MSMEs no choice but to close shop or retrench employees.”
Preliminary results of the July 2018 round of the Philippine Statistics Authority’s Labor Force Survey put the country’s unemployment rate at 5.4%, down from the 5.6% recorded in the same period last year. This is equivalent to 2.323 million jobless Filipinos from 2.373 million a year ago.
However, the underemployment rate — the proportion of those already working, but were still looking for more work or longer working hours in order to make ends meet — worsened to 17.2% from 16.3%, signalling deterioration of job quality.
The government has been working to slash the country’s unemployment rate to 3-5% by 2022, when Mr. Duterte ends his six-year term. — Gillian M. Cortez

ANZ sees inflation hovering above 7% as storm damage stokes price pressures

INFLATION will likely hover above seven percent in the remaining months of 2018, ANZ Research said, adding to mounting doubts about government expectations that overall price spikes could have peaked last quarter.
The research group said inflation is unlikely to ease anytime soon, with price pressures stoked by typhoon Mangkhut, locally called Ompong, spilling into this quarter.
“We estimate that inflation will remain above 7.0% for all of Q4 2018,” ANZ Research said in its Asia Economic Outlook report released yesterday.
The typhoon ravaged Cagayan Valley, Isabela, Central Luzon, and the Cordillera Administrative Region which are major sources of rice and vegetables.
“It has also been widely reported that production of rice, corn and livestock have been severely affected. All these components account for around 22% of the CPI basket, which is likely to lift inflation in the coming months.”
If realized, this will frustrate Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) expectations that inflation would peak in the third quarter and edge towards its 2-4% target in 2019.
Prices of widely used goods rose by 6.4% in August, marking a nine-year high amid crimped supply of rice, vegetables, meat and fish, as well as rising global oil prices. September inflation is expected to clock in even higher at 6.8%, based on estimates of the BSP and BusinessWorld’s poll last week of private sector economists.
In response, the central bank fired off another a 50 basis point (bp) increase in benchmark rates to demonstrate its commitment to temper price pressures and quell inflation expectations.
Last week, Malacañang issued four administrative orders directing the National Food Authority, the Sugar Regulatory Administration and the Department of Agriculture to lift non-tariff barriers and streamline import procedures for rice, sugar, meat and fish.
“These reforms are positive, in our view,” ANZ Research said. “We believe that a combination of monetary and non-monetary measures is essential to deal with both the demand and supply-side drivers of inflation.”
At the same time, it pointed out that the BSP still needs to hike rates by another 25 bp in its Dec. 13 policy review.
“Whether that will help restore investor confidence hinges on the trajectory of inflation,” bank economists said in the report.
“However, the eight-percent decline in the peso year-to-date, coupled with strong oil prices, will underpin inflation in the near term. Even with a policy rate of 4.75%, real interest rates remain in negative territory.”
ANZ sees full-year inflation at 5.1%, just below the BSP’s full-year estimate of 5.2%. Prices of basic goods went up by 4.8% in the eight months to August.
The International Monetary Fund expects 2018 inflation at 4.9% this year. Other banks and research firms have also given higher estimates such as Capital Economics and Standard Chartered Bank (5.5%) and Fitch Solutions (5.3%).
With unrelenting inflation, ANZ has also scaled down its growth forecast for the Philippines to 6.5% for 2018, coming from 6.6% in August and 6.8% earlier this year.
BSP officer-in-charge Deputy Governor Chuchi G. Fonacier said last week that policy makers are strongly committed to address the threat of high inflation.
BSP Governor Nestor A. Espenilla, Jr., who has been on medical leave since Sept. 19, announced yesterday that it will be extended for another two weeks. “My treatment is progressing very well. But I’ve got to give it the best chance possible,” Mr. Espenilla, who is battling tongue cancer, said in a WhatsApp message sent to reporters yesterday afternoon. — Melissa Luz T. Lopez