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Japan loses top creditor status for the first time in 34 years

Japanese national flags stacked in a cart during the printing at Hattori Co.’s factory in Miyoshi, Aichi Prefecture, Japan, on Tuesday, June 29, 2021. — BLOOMBERG

JAPAN lost its position as the world’s largest creditor nation for the first time in 34 years, despite posting a record amount of overseas assets.

Japan’s net external assets reached ¥533.05 trillion ($3.7 trillion) at the end of 2024, rising about 13% from the previous year, according to data released on Tuesday by the Ministry of Finance. While the figure marked an all-time high, it was overtaken by Germany, whose net external assets totaled ¥569.7 trillion. China stayed in third place with net assets of ¥516.3 trillion. Japan began its streak at the top by overtaking Germany in 1991.

Germany’s ascent reflects its substantial current account surplus, which reached €248.7 billion in 2024 thanks largely to a strong trade performance. Japan’s surplus in turn was ¥29.4 trillion according to the finance ministry, equivalent to around €180 billion. Last year the euro-yen rate rose around 5%, exaggerating the increase in German assets versus Japanese in yen terms.

A country’s net foreign assets are the value of its overseas assets minus the value of its domestic assets that are owned by foreigners, adjusted for changes in currency values, and the figure is essentially reflected in the cumulative change of the country’s current account.

Minister of Finance Katsunobu Kato signaled on Tuesday that he was unperturbed by the development.

“Given that Japan’s net external assets have also been steadily increasing, the ranking alone should not be taken as a sign that Japan’s position has changed significantly,” Mr. Kato told reporters.

For Japan, a weaker yen contributed to increases in both foreign assets and liabilities, but assets grew at a faster pace, driven in part by expanded business investment abroad.

Tuesday’s data generally reflect broader trends in foreign direct investment. In 2024, Japanese companies maintained a robust appetite for foreign direct investment, particularly in the US and UK, according to the ministry. Sectors such as finance, insurance and retail attracted significant capital from Japanese investors, the ministry said.

Japan’s increasing allocations of funds to direct investment rather than foreign securities means it’s more difficult to repatriate funds quickly, according to Daisuke Karakama, chief market economist at Mizuho Bank.

“It’s easy to imagine domestic investors selling foreign bonds and securities when risks emerge, but they’re not going to divest from overseas companies they’ve acquired so easily,” Mr. Karakama said. —

Looking ahead, the trajectory of outbound investment may hinge on whether Japanese firms continue to expand their overseas spending, especially in the US. With President Donald J. Trump’s tariff policies in effect, some companies may be incentivized to relocate production or transfer assets to the US to mitigate trade-related risks. — Bloomberg

UK to spend billions on job training to cut reliance on migrant workers

REUTERS

LONDON — Britain will spend a record 3 billion pounds ($4 billion) to boost training opportunities, the government said on Tuesday, part of a broader strategy to train locals to fill gaps in the labor market and reduce reliance on foreign workers.

The investment will “refocus the skills landscape towards young, domestic talent” by creating 120,000 new training opportunities in key sectors such as construction, engineering, health and social care, and digital, a statement from the government’s education department said.

More than one in five working-age Britons do not have a job and are not seeking one, with the latest official data showing the inactivity rate at 21.4%, having steadily risen since the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Labour government has been under pressure to cut immigration following the local election success of the right-wing, anti-immigration Reform UK party in May, and has since set out plans to tighten citizenship rules, restrict skilled worker visas to graduate-level jobs, and push firms to train locals.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer declared that the open border experiment was over when the measures were set out.

Tuesday’s statement said a planned 32% rise in the immigration skills charge, designed to dissuade businesses from hiring foreign workers, would deliver up to 45,000 additional training places to “upskill the domestic workforce and reduce reliance on migration” in priority sectors.

Businesses have said they cannot hire enough staff locally, warning that the tougher rules would harm the economy unless they were accompanied by a fundamental overhaul of the country’s skills training system. — Reuters

North Korea says US space shield is ‘nuclear war scenario’

REUTERS

SEOUL — North Korea’s foreign ministry has criticized the US Golden Dome missile defense shield project as a “very dangerous threatening initiative,” state media said on Tuesday.

US President Donald J. Trump on May 20 said he had picked a design for the Golden Dome missile defense system and named a leader of the ambitious $175-billion program.

The Golden Dome plan “is a typical product of ‘America first,’ the height of self-righteousness, arrogance, high-handed and arbitrary practice, and is an outer space nuclear war scenario,” said the Institute for American Studies of North Korea’s foreign ministry, according to state KCNA news agency.

The aim is for Golden Dome to leverage a network of hundreds of satellites circling the globe with sophisticated sensors and interceptors to knock out incoming enemy missiles after they lift off from countries like China, Iran, North Korea or Russia.

China last week said it is “seriously concerned” about the project and called for Washington to abandon its development. — Reuters

Workplace Wellness Reimagined: Tackling unspoken healthtopics for workplace transformation

Groundbreaking event brings together industry leaders to address menstrual & reproductive health, LGBTQIA+ inclusion, and burnout prevention in the workplace

Over 100 business leaders, HR professionals, and wellness advocates gathered at Six/NEO on March 18 for “Workplace Wellness Reimagined: Building Bridges to Better Health,” where femtech brand Lily of the Valley and healthcare platform Eluvo Health addressed critical but overlooked aspects of workplace health equity — ensuring all employees have fair access to health support regardless of gender, identity, or life stage.

Reproductive Health Takes Centerstage, Addressing the Hidden Productivity Gap

With 40% of productivity lost to menstrual-related presenteeism and 45% of menstruating employees missing work due to cycle-related issues, the business case for health equity became clear.

Implementing inclusive health initiatives is essential for sustainable business outcomes,” said Dr. Jaycy Violago-Olivarez, Founder & CEO of Eluvo Health.

During the panel, 100% of female attendees reported experiencing reproductive health challenges affecting work, yet 90% felt uncomfortable discussing these with management — highlighting the urgent need for cultural change in workplaces.

Panelists on “Fostering Inclusive Workplaces”

Breaking New Ground in LGBTQIA+ Health Inclusion

The LGBTQIA+ health panel provided insights into unique challenges faced by individuals assigned female at birth (AFAB).

Real wellness starts with inclusivity. When employees feel valued, they bring their best — and that’s a win for everyone,” noted Dr. Deano Reyes of Hara Clinic.

An attendee reflected, “The LGBT+ panel revealed critical insights into unique challenges during medical consultations — when they’re asked who is the ‘male’ and ‘female’ in their relationships.”

Inclusivity is not just an ethical obligation but a lifeline that dismantles systemic barriers,” said Bam Terol of Spill the T Podcast. The event’s discussions moved beyond rainbow logos to explore how workplace policies can acknowledge the full spectrum of human diversity.

Combating the Burnout Epidemic

Dinah Salonga, IT veteran and Stress & Burnout Specialist from the World Institute for Incurable Diseases, led participants through practical self-healing methods.

Another attendee shared: “When a breast-feeding executive asked about sleep quality, Dinah suggested focusing on health, social contributions, and spiritual life. Our lives are multifaceted and need cultivation in all areas to feel fulfilled.”

Participants experienced a transformative breathing technique that strengthens and revitalizes the body — a simple practice implementable in any workplace.

Interactive Session: Creating Psychologically Safe Workspaces

Sustainability and Innovation

The event was hosted at Six/NEO, reinforcing the connection between environmentally sustainable workplaces and human well-being.

At NEO, our commitment extends to the holistic well-being of everyone in our buildings,” said Gie Garcia, Co-Managing Director & Chief Sustainability Officer of NEO.

The event also highlighted FemTech Association Asia’s research showing a 20% increase in femtech products and services spending in the region, providing valuable context for workplace initiatives.

Call to Action: Transform Your Workplace Now

Attendees at the “Workplace Wellness Reimagined: Building Bridges to Better Health” event

Following the event, attendees were invited to sign a Workplace Wellness Pledge, committing to implementing at least one concrete wellness initiative within the next six months.

Workplace wellness isn’t a luxury — it’s a business imperative. By fostering open dialogues and providing practical solutions, we’re helping organizations improve retention, engagement, and productivity,” Camille Escudero, founder of Lily of the Valley emphasized. “The question isn’t whether you can afford to implement these changes — it’s whether you can afford not to.”

Take immediate action: Contact Lily of the Valley for tailored workshops and implementation toolkits, partner with NEO for wellness-centered workspace solutions, or leverage FemTech Association Asia’s research to guide policy development. Message hello@mylilyofthevalley.com to schedule a free 30-minute consultation.

 


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PHILSME 2025 closes with resounding success, empowering Filipino SMEs to scale and thrive

Chinkee Tan talks at the 16th PHILSME Business Expo and Conference on “How To Boost Your Business + Aligning With The Evolving Market.”

The 16th Philippine SME Business Expo (PHILSME 2025) concluded today at the SMX Convention Center, Mall of Asia, after two energizing days of business-building exhibits, expert-led discussions, and powerful networking opportunities tailored for the country’s small and medium enterprises (SMEs).

With over 20,000 pre-registered attendees and more than 180 local and international brands on display, PHILSME 2025 proved once again to be the nation’s most trusted platform for empowering SMEs through collaboration, innovation, and accessible business solutions.

In the Philippine economy, micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) comprise 99.5% of all business establishments, generate 63% of total employment, and contribute about 40% to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). PHILSME 2025 proudly highlighted the critical role SMEs play in the economy and provided them with tools and strategies to grow and compete on a larger scale.

“We created PHILSME to guide SMEs toward practical, real-world business solutions — and this year, we witnessed powerful exchanges and partnerships take shape right on our expo floor,” said Trixie Esguerra-Abrenilla, CEO and Managing Director of PHILSME. “Helping Filipino entrepreneurs scale their businesses isn’t just our mission — it’s our promise, and we’re only getting started.”

The expo featured live demos, exclusive activations, and the PHILSME Business Conference, with thought leaders like Jayson Lo, RJ Ledesma, Kim Lato, Dar Ty-Nilo, Cristalle Belo-Pitt, Ric Gindap, Miko David, Rowen Untivero, and Chinkee Tan sharing valuable insights on innovation, branding, leadership, and business growth.

Corporate and international leaders such as GCash for Business, Cignal TV, Inc., USA Poultry & Egg Export Council, and JRS Dynamics Info Solutions Corp. also contributed practical solutions and perspectives, while the Special Malaysian Pavilion by MATRADE opened doors to cross-border SME partnerships.

Full house at the 16th PHILSME Business Conference at SMX Convention Center

A highlight on Day 1 was the PHILSME Business Network’s Awarding of Certificates to its newly inducted and active members, recognizing their role in building a thriving community of entrepreneurs dedicated to growth, mentorship, and collaboration.

Backed by Platinum, Gold, and Silver sponsors, PHILSME 2025 delivered unmatched value to participants and exhibitors alike, reinforcing its role as a key driver of business momentum in the SME sector.

Looking ahead, PHILSME is gearing up for its next major event focused on entrepreneurs and start-ups, set to take place in October 2025 at the SM Megatrade Hall in Mandaluyong, Metro Manila.

Stay tuned to www.philsme.com for updates on upcoming expos and business opportunities.

For sponsorship, exhibition & media inquiries, contact:
📧 sunshine@philsme.com
📞 +63 968 569 8358

 


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Leading with heart: Patricia Poco-Palacios on driving growth and purpose at Global Dominion

Patricia Poco-Palacios, President and CEO of Global Dominion Financing, Inc.

By Jay Ann Bonghanoy

As we celebrate Mother’s Day Month, a time to honor the women who nurture, lead, and inspire, it’s only fitting to shine the spotlight on a leader whose vision and strength embody the very compassion, resilience, and courage of motherhood itself. Patricia Poco-Palacios, President and CEO of Global Dominion Financing, Inc., stands as a powerful example of purposeful leadership driven by heart and determination.

At the recently concluded 2025 Annual Stockholders’ Meeting, Patricia delivered a powerful report. She highlighted not just the company’s robust financial performance, but also the values and leadership that made it possible.

“Coming off a challenging reorganization, our team charged forward and delivered high double-digit growth right out of the gate,” she said. “This momentum never slowed.”

Global Dominion ended 2024 with a 57% increase in loan releases, growing its total loan portfolio from P7.7 billion in 2023 to P11.3 billion in 2024. The customer base grew by over 10,000 clients, serving a total of 46,028 Filipino families and entrepreneurs. These results show that the company is not only back on track, but also leading the financing industry.

Under Patricia’s leadership and its board, Global Dominion expanded its reach significantly. Fifty new branches were added in 2024, bringing the total to more than 140 locations nationwide. This made its services more accessible to Filipinos across the country.

In 2024, Global Dominion experienced impressive internal growth, hiring 1,400 new employees and expanding its workforce to over 2,100. At the same time, the company demonstrated operational strength and smart risk management, with net income after tax rising by 34.5%, from P518 million to P697 million.

Beyond performance metrics, Patricia emphasized a deeper kind of impact, leadership development. Ten former Global Dominion talents now serve as Presidents and Vice Presidents in affiliated financial institutions. This is a clear sign of the company’s commitment to nurturing future leaders.

“These are the true awards,” Patricia affirmed. “We do not only deliver results. We develop people who can drive transformation.”

She also commended the company’s officers for continuing to strengthen Global Dominion’s purpose-driven legacy.

Looking ahead, Patricia expressed both optimism and resolve.

“The road ahead will bring challenges, but we are equipped with a strong foundation in values, leadership, and purpose. Because with Global Dominion, #PwedePala.”

This Mother’s Day Month, we honor not only the women who raised us, but also those who lead with vision, courage, and heart. To every mother, every leader, and every Ka-partner shaping a brighter future—saludo po kami sa inyo.

 


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Tesla sales plunge by 49% in Europe

STOCK PHOTO | Image by ElasticComputeFarm from Pixabay

Tesla’s sales in Europe fell 49% in April from a year earlier, even as battery-electric sales rose by 27.8%, as the US EV maker’s upgrade of its Model Y shows little sign of improving the brand’s tarnished image in the region.

Overall car sales in the region remained roughly consistent with last year, falling just 0.3%, with the strongest sales growth coming from electric and plug-in hybrid cars, data by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) showed.

Tesla’s sales in Europe continue to drop, reflecting a shift away from the brand as Chinese competition strengthens and some protest against Elon Musk’s political views.

European carmakers strive to cut domestic costs and tackle competition amid U.S. tariffs on auto imports and a slowing global economy, with uncertainty overshadowing the industry’s outlook despite eased U.S.-China trade tensions.

April sales in the European Union, Britain and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) fell to 1.07 million cars, following a 2.8% growth a month before, the ACEA data showed.

Registrations at Chinese state-owned automaker SAIC Motor and Mitsubishi grew by 24.5% and 22.1% respectively, while they fell by 24.5% at Mazda.

Tesla’s sales fell for a fourth month in a row, down 49% year-on-year, and its share of the total market nearly halved to 0.7% from 1.3% a year ago.

In just the EU – not including Britain and the EFTA – total car sales fell 1.2% year-on-year, declining for a fourth consecutive month, as the registrations of battery electric (BEV), plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and hybrid electric (HEV) cars grew by 26.4%, 7.8% and 20.8% respectively.

Electrified vehicles – either BEV, HEV or PHEV – sold in the bloc accounted for 59.2% of passenger car registrations in April, up from 47.7% in the previous year.

Among the largest EU markets, total car sales in Spain and Italy increased by 7.1% and 2.7% respectively, while in France and Germany they dropped by 5.6% and 0.2%.

In Britain, registrations were down 10.4%.

Growing interest in Europe’s EV market, driven by emission targets and cheaper models, contrasts with global policies encouraging EVs amid trade tensions, slowing markets, and potential plant closures and job losses. — Reuters

EU warns Shein of fines in consumer protection probe

SHEIN.COM

BRUSSELS – The European Union on Monday urged fast-fashion retailer Shein to respect EU consumer protection laws and warned it could face fines if it failed to address the EU’s concerns.

Shein has grown rapidly by shipping inexpensive products directly to consumers. In February, the European Commission warned Shein and Temu, another Chinese online e-commerce platform, that they would be liable for the sale of unsafe and dangerous products sold on their sites.

A spokesperson for the company said in a statement that Shein is working with national consumers’ authorities and the EU Commission.

“Our priority remains ensuring that European consumers can have a safe, reliable, and enjoyable online shopping experience,” the statement also said.

The Consumer Protection Co-operation (CPC) network of national consumer authorities and the European Commission had now notified Shein of practices which infringed EU consumer law, the Commission said in a statement.

“Shein now has one month to reply to the CPC Network’s findings and propose commitments on how they will address the identified consumer law issues. Depending on Shein’s reply, the CPC Network may enter a dialogue with the company,” it said.

“If Shein fails to address the concerns raised by the CPC Network, national authorities can take enforcement measures to ensure compliance. This includes the possibility to impose fines based on Shein’s annual turnover in the EU Member States concerned,” the statement added.

Shein could also be the target of EU regulatory demands under the EU’s Digital Services Act.

In a further blow to Shein, the EU has proposed a 2 euro ($2.27) handling fee per package for low-value e-commerce shipments. — Reuters

Philippines open to more agreements with China to keep peace in South China Sea

AN AERIAL photo of Philippine-occupied Thitu Island, locally known as Pag-asa, in the contested Spratly Islands. — REUTERS

KUALA LUMPUR – The Philippines is open to any additional agreements with Beijing that can help maintain peace in the South China Sea, its top diplomat said, amid unabated confrontations between them over disputed features.

The South China Sea, a conduit for about $3 trillion of annual ship-borne trade, remains a source of tension between China and U.S. ally the Philippines, with ties at their worst in years amid frequent standoffs that have sparked regional concerns they could spiral into conflict.

The Philippines is vexed by the constant presence of China’s coast guard in its exclusive economic zone, where both countries claim sovereignty over disputed features, including uninhabited sandbars, an atoll rich in fish stocks and a reef where Manila has troops stationed on a grounded navy ship.

“I’m not saying they (arrangements) will necessarily take place, but anything within the scope of diplomatic means or peaceful means or cooperation is certainly within our template,” Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique A. Manalo told journalists on the sidelines of an Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in Kuala Lumpur on Sunday.

Deals have been struck before, with the Philippines and China last year reaching a “provisional arrangement” for resupply missions to the grounded vessel at the Second Thomas Shoal after repeated flare-ups between rival vessels.

China has accused the Philippines of trespassing in its waters but denies allegations of aggressive conduct. Beijing has advocated for dialogue with Manila to manage disputes.

China claims sovereignty over almost the entire South China Sea, which includes parts of the EEZs of Vietnam,Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei and the Philippines.

The stakes are high in the event of a miscalculation between Beijing and Manila, with the United States bound by a 1951 mutual defence treaty to come to the aid of the Philippines in the event of any armed attack, including in the South China Sea.

Manalo said the Philippines was determined to see how it could speed up negotiations for a code of conduct between ASEAN and Beijing on the South China Sea.

All sides agreed in 2002 to draft a code but it took 15 years for them to initiate a process to start negotiations.

ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn last week told Reuters all sides were committed to finalising the code by next year. The Philippines will chair ASEAN in 2026.

In remarks to ASEAN leaders on Monday, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr called for the adoption of a legally binding code to be accelerated.

“This is to safeguard maritime rights, promote stability, and prevent miscalculations at sea,” Marcos said. — Reuters

EU sees ‘new impetus’ in US trade talks, businesses worry over uncertainty

A EUROPEAN UNION’S flag flutters outside the European Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, Oct. 15, 2020. — REUTERS

BRUSSELS – U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to drop his threat to impose 50% tariffs on European Union imports from next month gave ‘new impetus’ to trade talks, the EU said on Monday, as global stock markets climbed and the euro rallied.

Back-tracking on the new tariffs he announced on Friday, Trump on Sunday restored a July 9 deadline to allow for talks between Washington and the 27-nation bloc to produce a deal after what he said was “a very nice call” with EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen.

The pan-European stocks index recovered to where it was trading before Friday’s surprise tariff announcement and the euro rose to its highest since late April. Gold prices fell as Trump’s latest move reduced demand for the safe-haven asset.

“They agreed both to fast track the trade negotiations and to stay in close contact,” a European Commission spokesperson said of Trump and von der Leyen’s conversation.

US and EU trade representatives were due to hold talks later on Monday.

“There’s now also a new impetus for the negotiations, and we will take it from there,” the spokesperson said.

The U.S. president’s about-turn reminded policymakers and investors how quickly his trade policy could change, however, and it was unclear how the EU would square its push for a mutually beneficial trade deal with U.S. calls for steep concessions.

Commerzbank currency strategist Michael Pfister said the European Union could reach a deal with the U.S. by July 9 but that Friday’s announcement made clear the respite was temporary.

“It is questionable what has changed in terms of the fundamental problems following a phone call,” he said.

EU COMPANIES ON EDGE
Several businesses leaders said the sheer uncertainty made it hard to plan anything.
Gianmarco Giorda, managing director of Italy’s auto part maker lobby group ANFIA, told Reuters he still hoped the talks would succeed but that formulating strategies was complicated:

“U.S. duties are an additional source of concern in an already difficult scenario for the Italian automotive industry.”

Germany’s family-owned LAPP Group, which makes everything from cables and wires to robotics for factories, warned that some of its specialised products would still be affected by the volatile business environment.

“Unfortunately, current U.S. politics is characterised by unpredictability, individual interests and populism,” CEO Matthias Lapp told Reuters.

“Germany’s good transatlantic relations have been built up over decades of diplomatic work and mutual understanding. However, confidence in their stability is currently suffering massive damage.”

EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic held a video conference on Monday with the CEOs of Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, BMW and Stellantis, as businesses wondered what plans, if any, they should make.

FRUSTRATION
Trump, who has repeatedly expressed disdain for the EU and its treatment of the United States on trade, dropped the plan to recommend a 50% tariff effective from June 1 after von der Leyen told him that the EU needed more time to come to an agreement.

“I agreed to move it,” Trump said before returning to Washington after a weekend in New Jersey. “She said we will rapidly get together and see if we can work something out.”

Von der Leyen said in a post on X that she had a “good call” with Trump and that the EU was ready to move quickly.

“Europe is ready to advance talks swiftly and decisively,” she said. “To reach a good deal, we would need the time until July 9.”

The negotiations had been stuck, with Washington demanding unilateral concessions from Brussels to open up to U.S. business while the EU seeks an agreement in which both sides could gain, according to people familiar with the talks.

The EU already faces 25% U.S. import tariffs on its steel, aluminum and cars and so-called “reciprocal” tariffs of 10% for almost all other goods, a levy that had been due to rise to 20% after Trump’s 90-day pause expires in July.

The levy could increase to 50% in a no-deal scenario, which could raise consumer prices on everything from German BMWs and Porsches to Italian olive oil and hurt demand for French luxury handbags.

It was not clear, however, whether the 50% would be levied on imports not subject to the U.S. ‘reciprocal’ tariff, such as steel, cars and other products subject to investigations, such as semiconductors, pharmaceutical products and lumber. — Reuters

Trump Media to raise $3 billion to spend on cryptocurrencies, FT reports

Representations of virtual currency Bitcoin are placed on US dollar banknotes in this illustration taken on May 26, 2020. — REUTERS/DADO RUVIC/ILLUSTRATION

U.S. President Donald Trump’s social media firm, Trump Media & Technology Group, plans to raise about $3 billion to spend on cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, the Financial Times reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the matter.

Trump Media aims to raise $2 billion in fresh equity and $1 billion more through a convertible bond, the report said.

The terms, timing and size of the company’s capital raise could still change, the FT report said.

Trump Media Group responded to a Reuters request for comment by calling both Reuters and the Financial Times “fake news” outlets. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The company behind Truth Social, a streaming and social media platform, has been exploring potential mergers and acquisitions as it aims to diversify into financial services.

Last month, Trump Media reached a binding agreement to launch various retail investment products, including crypto and exchange-traded funds aligned with Trump’s America First policies.

This, however, has attracted scrutiny from government ethics and regulatory authorities.

The company’s capital raise is expected to be announced ahead of a major crypto investor and advocate meeting this week, the FT report said, adding that Vice President JD Vance and Trump’s sons Donald Jr. and Eric are expected to speak.

Bitcoin was up 1.5%, its biggest move up or down in three days and largest gain in four days. — Reuters

Russia’s cooling economy facing ‘hypothermia’ risks, minister warns

Russian Su-25 jet aircraft fly above St. Basil’s Cathedral in Moscow, Russia June 24, 2020. — REUTERS

MOSCOW – Russia’s economy is facing “hypothermia” risks, Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said on Monday as he urged the central bank to take slowing inflation into account when it meets to set interest rates next week.

Grappling with stubbornly high inflation, Russia’s central bank has kept its key interest rate at 21% since October, a stance that has stifled investment just as the economic support provided by soaring military spending starts to decline.

Russian authorities usually present a united front on policy matters, but high interest rates, hefty budget spending and the efficacy of capital controls have all led to public disagreements in the last few years.

Sometimes the Kremlin gets involved.

In August 2023, the central bank made an unscheduled, 350-basis-point rate hike the day after receiving a public rebuke from President Vladimir Putin’s then economic adviser Maxim Oreshkin, blaming what he called its soft monetary policy for weakening the rouble.

Then in March this year Putin urged his economic officials not to freeze the Russian economy as if it were in a “cryotherapy chamber” with high borrowing costs, which many analysts interpreted as a call to start an easing cycle.

Reshetnikov, speaking on Monday in the State Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament, said that inflation in recent weeks had been in the 3-4% range when recalculated in annual terms.

“We expect that May data will consolidate this trend and we of course expect that the central bank will duly take this into account when taking decisions because we also see risks of economic hypothermia in the current regime,” Reshetnikov said.

The ministry forecasts annual inflation for 2025 at 7.6%, an estimate that Reshetnikov described as “realistic”.

Major Russian exporters including Rusal and Gazpromneft have cut the planned volume of commodities such as metal and oil products they send by rail, a Russian Railways document seen by Reuters showed last week, demonstrating the real-world impact of subdued demand as the country’s economy slows.

Many businesses in the industrial sector have complained of prohibitive borrowing costs and some have scaled back investment plans. The economy ministry forecasts economic growth of 2.5% this year, compared with a central bank prediction of 1-2%.

The central bank’s next rate-setting meeting is scheduled for June 6. — Reuters