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Peso weakens vs dollar on oil, policy-easing signals

THE PESO declined as oil prices rose. — BW FILE PHOTO

THE PESO weakened against the greenback on Tuesday after a correction in global oil prices and following recent signals of more easing from the central bank to support the economy amid the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

The local unit finished trading at P50.63 per dollar on Tuesday, depreciating by 3.5 centavos from its P50.595 close on Monday, according to data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines.

The peso opened the session at P50.63 per dollar. Its weakest showing was at P50.65 while its intraday best was at P50.54 against the greenback.

Dollars traded went up to $340.4 million on Tuesday from the $194.2 million traced on Monday.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort attributed the local unit’s slight weakening to the correction in oil prices. He, however, noted that the peso continues to be resilient as the Tuesday close is still among its “strongest in a month and in 2 years.”

“The peso closed weaker after some slight increase in the global oil prices recently after OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) agreed over the weekend to reduce oil production output,” Mr. Ricafort said in a text message.

Reuters reported that oil prices inched up by more than 1% on Tuesday with shale output in the US predicted to decline the most in April, aside from the recent cuts from other major producers.

Brent futures inched up by 53 cents or 1.7% to $32.27 a barrel by 0420 GMT after settling 0.8% higher on Monday. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 32 cents or 1.4% at $22.73 following a 1.5% slip the previous session.

The OPEC reached a deal to slash output by 9.7 million barrels per day in May and June, which would translate to about 10% of global supply before the outbreak.

Meanwhile, a trader said the peso depreciated following comments from the central bank chief.

“The local currency weakened in anticipation of more dovish actions from the BSP (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) to stimulate the Philippine economy from the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown,” the trader said in an e-mail.

BSP Governor Benjamin E. Diokno said on Sunday they are eyeing a “deeper cut” in interest rates as well as another 200-basis-point (bp) reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) of banks to stem the impact of the outbreak on the economy.

On March 19, the BSP slashed key rates by 50 bps to bring the overnight reverse repurchase rate to 3.25% and the overnight lending and deposit rates to 3.75% and 2.75%.

The BSP has cut rates by 150 bps since 2019, almost completely reversing the 175 bps in hikes implemented in 2018.

The Monetary Board will have its next policy-setting meeting on May 21.

Meanwhile, the RRR of universal and commercial banks was trimmed by 200 bps earlier this month to 12% in a move to boost liquidity amid a lockdown in Luzon.

For today, Mr. Ricafort gave a forecast range of P50.50 to P50.75 per dollar, while the trader expects the local unit to move around the P50.55 to P50.75 levels. — L.W.T. Noble with Reuters

PSE index ends above 5,700 on China trade data

THE MAIN INDEX sustained its climb on Tuesday and broke into the 5,700 level, as investor optimism was fueled by positive trade data from China.

The 30-member Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) went up 169.90 points or 3.02% to close at 5,780.88 yesterday. The broader all shares index likewise increased 88.32 points or 2.61% to 3,468.95.

“The market went up along with Asian markets today as investor sentiment turned positive when China released better-than-expected trade data,” Timson Securities, Inc. Trader Darren T. Pangan said in a text message on Tuesday.

“We have entered the 5,700 area but the coming days have to be observed if this level holds,” Mr. Pangan said.

China reported yesterday its exports and imports figures improved for the month of March compared to in January and February, as exports fell 6.6% and imports slid 0.9% year-on-year.

“This gave investors some optimism that the biggest economy in Asia is recovering faster than expected. This optimism overshadowed the jump in global COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) cases overnight…,” AAA Southeast Equities, Inc. Research Head Christopher John Mangun said in an e-mail.

The global COVID-19 tally as of Tuesday afternoon showed cases reached 1.93 million, and deaths have risen to over 119,000. In the Philippines, cases jumped to 4,932 as of Monday, with deaths reaching 315 and recoveries hitting 242.

All sectoral indices at the local bourse were gainers yesterday. Industrials led as it climbed 319.71 points or 4.35% to 7,655.60, followed by services which went up 54.01 points or 4.31% to 1,306.04.

Financials increased 44.05 points or 3.79% to 1,206.04; mining and oil climbed 165.77 points or 3.68% to 4,660.79; holding firms added 131.03 points or 2.36% to 5,664.59; and property picked up 62.43 points or 2.13% to 2,992.82.

Value turnover stood at P7.38 billion with 979.02 million issues changing hands, up from Monday’s P5.2 billion with 539.99 million issues.

Advancers beat decliners, 158 against 53, while 32 names ended unchanged.

Foreign outflows continued with a net selling of P1.29 billion yesterday, jumping from the P587.63 million logged on Monday.

“It (the PSEi) is coming up against its major resistance at 5,800, we may see some profit-taking in the next few days as a result. The general sentiment is cautious optimism as investors are willing to take a chance but will flee at the first sight of a reversal,” Mr. Mangun said.

Meanwhile, the Dow and S&P 500 fell on Monday as US companies prepared to kick off a quarterly earnings season expected to be rough due to the coronavirus pandemic, while Amazon.com gains helped the Nasdaq end higher, Reuters reported.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 328.6 points or 1.39%,to 23,390.77; the S&P 500 lost 28.19 points or 1.01% to 2,761.63; and the Nasdaq Composite added 38.85 points or 0.48% to 8,192.43. — Denise A. Valdez with Reuters

COVID-19 cases may jump to 44,000 by end-April

By Vann Marlo M. Villegas, Reporter

CORONAVIRUS CASES in the Philippines may multiply by almost nine times to 44,000 by the end of the month, better than without a lockdown for the entire Luzon island that started on March 17, according to university health experts.

Infections could reach 9,000 to 44,000 by end-April, a team of experts from the University of the Philippines (UP) said in a report posted on its website, noting that it now takes six days to double the number of infections compared with just three days before.

“This indicates the relative success of the enhanced community quarantine — along with other interventions — in containing the spread of the virus,” according to the report. “However, we must not simply rely on the number of cases as a means to project courses of actions.”

President Rodrigo R. Duterte locked down Luzon on March 17, suspending work, classes and public transportation to contain the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic that the Department of Health yesterday said had sickened 5,223 people.

The agency reported 291 new infections and 20 more deaths on Tuesday, raising the death toll to 335.

Fifty-three more patients have gotten well, bringing the total recoveries to 295, it said in a bulletin.

In their report, the UP experts said the COVID-19 virus had a fatality rate of 5.38% and a reproduction number of 0.6398 in the Philippines, which means the lockdown had been effective in containing the pandemic.

While the enhanced community quarantine seemed successful, expanding its area “may not be sustainable over the long run,” the experts said, adding that extending the restrictions on the movement of goods and services might “unnecessarily paralyze the economy.”

“In light of this reality, our best recourse after April 30 is to implement graduated activation of the enhanced community quarantine depending on the level of risk in certain areas at a given time,” they said.

“Under this setup, provinces (or even lower-level local government units) may be put under enhanced community quarantine depending on how close or far they are to an estimated outbreak threshold,” they added.

The UP experts said they were conducting “epidemiological approaches in disease mapping” at the provincial level to determine the potential of an outbreak spread and getting the ratio of the number of cases to the estimated outbreak threshold.

They said provinces whose cases are 75% less than the estimated threshold need not declare a lockdown as long as they observe preemptive measures. Those whose cases are at least equal to the threshold should continue the quarantine.

They also recommended an automated data collection system in local governments, noting that getting real-time data makes it easier to estimate the rate of spread and identify hotspots and outbreaks.

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario S. Vergeire yesterday said the government has started expanded mass testing for the COVID-19 virus and would prioritize patients and health care workers in critical condition and showing severe symptoms.

“We will then test people with mild symptoms and those aged more than 60 years, with underlying conditions or high-risk pregnancy,” she said at a separate briefing in Filipino.

Patients and health care workers who have mild symptoms, even if they are not among vulnerable, will be next in line.

Ms. Vergeire said testing is recommended for those who have been exposed to COVID-19 patients.

There are now 15 testing laboratories in the country, while 28 institutions were undergoing certification and 37 have expressed a desire to become testing laboratories.

DoH has distributed more than 43,000 personal protective equipment to various hospitals, facilities and laboratories and expects the delivery of 230,000 more next week, Ms. Vergeire said.

The Luzon lockdown was supposed to end on April 13, but Mr. Duterte extended it by two more weeks until April 30.

The coronavirus disease 2019 has sickened 1.9 million and killed almost 120,000 people worldwide, according to the Worldometers website, citing various sources including data from the World Health Organization.

Manila allows doctors, nurses with existing contracts to leave

THE government has lifted the deployment ban for Filipino doctors and nurses with existing contracts overseas amid the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic after critics questioned its legality.

An inter-agency task force made up of Cabinet officials modified an order issued by the Philippine Overseas Employment Administration (POEA) earlier this month, Cabinet Secretary Karlo Alexei B. Nograles said at a briefing on Tuesday.

In an order dated April 2, POEA suspended the deployment of doctors and nurses while the country is in a state of national emergency.

Also covered by the ban are microbiologists, molecular biologists, medical technologists, clinical analysts, respiratory therapists, pharmacists, laboratory and X-ray technicians, nursing aids, medical equipment operators health supervisors and hospital equipment repair men.

POEA also suspended negotiations for government-to-government deployment of health workers.

It said the country’s health facilities, personnel and other resources are under severe strain due to the rising number of persons affected by the COVID-19 virus, according to the order signed by Labor Secretary Silvestre H. Bello III, who heads the POEA board.

Mr. Nograles said Filipino health care workers with existing overseas employment contracts March 8 may leave the country, provided they sign a waiver signifying their knowledge of the risks involved in traveling overseas.

“They would be allowed to leave,” he said. “They just need to sign a declaration signifying their knowledge of the risks involved in traveling abroad.”

Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro L. Locsin Jr. earlier opposed the ban, saying it was illegal.

President Rodrigo R. Duterte in a late-night address on Monday also said he won’t stop Filipino health workers who want to work overseas.

“I’m not blaming them and I’m not mad,” he said. “If Filipino health care workers want to serve in other countries and serve other people, it’s okay. I have no emotions about it.”

British Ambassador to the Philippines Daniel Pruce had reached out to the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) after Filipino health workers employed by the United Kingdom’s National Health Service were barred from leaving the country.

Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto M. Pernia earlier said health care workers should prioritize serving the country, noting that the state had given them benefits during the health crisis.

Mr. Duterte on March 17 ordered that Luzon be locked down, suspending classes, work and public transportation to contain the pandemic. He later extended the month-long lockdown by two more weeks until April 30. — NPA

It won’t be business or politics as usual in our ‘new normal’

It’s hard to imagine life after COVID-19. But like all pandemics, this too shall pass, and most things will go back to the way they were. When it does, people will flock back to the malls, attend concerts and sporting events, and spend time with friends without having to practice social distancing, just like they used to do.

But while some things will go back to the way they were, hopefully not all things do.

We will all emerge from this crisis having learned new lessons, hopefully, one of them is that even the most challenging of times can be overcome when we, as a whole society, work together.

Let us not forget how the different sectors of society sprung into action in the early phase of this pandemic. How health workers risked and lost their lives caring for their patients, how local government units mobilized quickly on the ground to respond to their constituents, and how the academics and research community rushed to develop test kits and to better understand the virus and its impact on our lives. Or how we, despite being quarantined in our homes, cobbled together our collective voices loud enough to be heard by government officials dragging their feet on the crisis response.

We should also not forget how volunteerism shone bright in the face of this adversity and uncertainty. How ordinary citizens and small business owners banded together and dedicated themselves to helping our frontliners in their communities and in hospitals. Or how the business community, religious groups, and civil society, combined their efforts to step-up to try to fill the gaps left by the government’s slow rollout of its Social Amelioration Program.

A shining example of this, of course, is the Project Ugnayan initiative led by top business groups in cooperation with the Philippine Disaster Resilience Foundation (PDRF), which has raised over P1.6 billion and reached over 7.6 million people in vulnerable communities of Metro Manila.

Initiatives such as this highlight the multiplier effect that comes out of multi-sectoral partnership. As PDRF Co-Chairman Jaime Augusto Zobel de Ayala put it, its “a movement we should nurture as we prepare to let people return to work and to re-start our economy in the post-quarantine period.”

Indeed, as we move closer to the end of the quarantine period and begin our journey towards a post-COVID-19 future, businesses will begin to start up again. A welcomed development, as this means millions of Filipinos can go back to work and get back to making a living.

Residents of Eastwood City simultaneously cheer from their balconies as they pay tribute to frontliners in the battle against COVID-19. — PHILIPPINE STAR/MICHAEL VARCAS

However, after the damper the crisis and the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) have put on the economy, I don’t think we can expect things to go back to business-as-usual. So while business leaders, such as PDRF Co-Chairman Manny Pangilinan, have publicly committed to seriously help our country recover from the lost economic momentum due to the pandemic, the business community, corporations and SMEs alike, will need the support of government policy to bring back economic growth and opportunity to the country.

The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) has already begun to study and identify the policies needed to help the country’s economy adjust to the “new normal.” It would be wishful thinking that these new policies to be identified by the NEDA will materialize as fast as the Bayanihan to Heal as One Act did. But, given the bureaucratic red-tape that has only further clogged the government’s response, I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Admittedly, NEDA has some time. According to the economic body, the government is still in its first phase of intervention: a clinical and medical response to rising COVID-19 cases, and has yet to enter phase 2 and phase 3 — social and economic recovery, respectively.

While this may be the case, we should not wait before it’s too late to identify and implement these “new normal” economic policies. The ECQ is set to be lifted at month’s end, businesses will slowly start up again and will need clarity on these policies to make effective business decisions. God forbid we come out of this health crisis only to be greeted by an economic one.

However, we are by no means mere bystanders in the crafting of the policies that will shape our country’s economic future. We have shown time and time again, that we can come together as a society to voice our concerns and effect meaningful change. Just in the last few months, we’ve put others before ourselves, pooled our resources to help fellow Filipinos, and made enough noise to force policymakers to remove dangerous provisions from Malacañan-backed legislation.

We should keep our vigilance and passion with us as we move towards the end of quarantine and towards rebuilding our economy in this “new normal.” We must not forget to continue to push our government to provide the policy environment wherein businesses can thrive and jobs can be created, and the wherein the synergies between public and private sector partnership can be harnessed to overcome the hardest of challenges. We must also not forget to keep our public officials honest, demanding effectiveness and efficiency, but transparency and accountability as well.

Our post-COVID-19 “new normal” may still be beyond the horizon, but when we get there, it won’t be business-as-usual, we should make sure it isn’t politics-as-usual either.

 

Paco A. Pangalangan is the Executive Director of the Stratbase ADR Institute.

COVID-19 as a fortuitous event and its implications on contractual obligations

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a novel and highly infectious disease which was unknown before the outbreak began in Wuhan, China last December. However, in 2020, the rapid spread of the contagious disease claimed thousands of lives worldwide causing global alarm and pandemonium. Thus, on March 11, the World Health Organization was constrained to characterize COVID-19 as a pandemic.

In the Philippines alone, as of April, the number of COVID-19 cases has significantly increased to a whopping 3,000 cases with fatalities rising to over 100. In response, the Philippine national government and its local government units ordered the implementation of stringent social distancing, alternative working arrangements, strict regulation of the movement of persons and goods and even the temporary closure of private establishments on account of the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ).

Undoubtedly, these measures will have a significant impact on the conduct of business. This includes the incapacity to satisfy clientele’s demands, failure to meet project deadlines, unwieldy delivery of goods and slim workforce. In view of these challenges, parties to commercial contracts may not be able to comply with their obligations. That begs the question: may a party invoke the defense of force majeure to be relieved of its contractual obligation by reason of the COVID-19 pandemic?

Caso fortuito, force majeure or a fortuitous event refers to “extraordinary events not foreseeable or avoidable, events that could not be foreseen, or which, though foreseen, are inevitable.” Renowned civilist, the late Desiderio Jurado, opined that the definition of fortuitous event is “broad enough to comprehend ‘acts of God’ or those which are absolutely independent of human intervention, such as rains, typhoons, floods, cyclones, earthquakes or any other similar calamity brought about by natural forces. It is also broad enough to include force majeure or events which arise from legitimate or illegitimate acts of persons other than the obligor, such as commotions, riots, wars, robbery and similar acts.”

Generally, no person shall be liable in cases of fortuitous event provided that the following elements are present:

a. The cause of the breach of the obligation must be independent of the will of the debtor;

b. The event must either be unforeseeable or unavoidable;

c. The event must be such as to render it impossible for the debtor to fulfill his obligation in a normal manner; and

d. The debtor must be free from any participation in, or aggravation of the injury.

Parenthetically, the debtor is responsible for a fortuitous event:

a. When expressly declared by law;

b. When expressly declared by stipulation or contract; and

c. When the nature of the obligation requires the assumption of risk.

Parties, by stipulation or contract, may expand or restrict the ambit of what constitutes a fortuitous event. In certain cases decided by the Supreme Court, the contract may provide for a stipulation imposing liability even in cases of fortuitous events and the same shall be binding upon the parties. The contract may likewise provide for a particular procedure to be observed once an alleged fortuitous event occurs. The prerequisites to be satisfied in the event of force majeure may differ from one contract to another in line with the principle that parties are free to enter into agreements and stipulate as to the terms and conditions of their contract.

Consequently, in order to ascertain whether the COVID-19 pandemic is considered as a fortuitous event, and whether a party is still liable, an examination of the contract, specifically the force majeure clause, is imperative.

If the contract fails to address the respective liabilities of the parties in case of fortuitous event, the provisions of the New Civil Code of the Philippines will apply as it is a basic rule in contracts that the law is deemed written into the contract between the parties.

However, the application of the legal concept of fortuitous event may no longer be necessary for some contracts such as contracts of lease and loan. Republic Act No. 11469, also known as the “Bayanihan to Heal as One,” directs all financial institutions, both public and private, to implement a minimum of a 30-day grace period for the payment of all loans falling due within the period of the ECQ without incurring interests, penalties, fees, or other charges. The said law also provides for a minimum of 30-day grace period, without incurring interests, penalties, fees and other charges, on residential rents falling due within the period of the ECQ.

While the government seems to lean towards considering the COVID-19 pandemic as a fortuitous event, it may, however, be more prudent for affected businesses to examine their existing contracts and determine the effect of the current situation on their obligations and the procedures to be followed to invoke exemptions.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not offered as and does not constitute legal advice or legal opinion.

 

Zyra G. Montefolca is an Associate of the Davao Branch of the Angara Abello Concepcion Regala & Cruz Law Offices (ACCRALAW).

zgmontefolca@accralaw.com

Coronavirus: Mankind’s crown of thorns

Has mankind become so great, having conquered the oceans and now exploring the galaxies? Have we become so powerful that we can threaten the world with destruction at the touch of a nuclear button? Have we become so brilliant that we can replace humans with robots and clone God’s creatures? If so, why has a virus, so tiny it is invisible to the naked eye, sent us cowering in our homes and wringing our hands with despair as we see thousands among us being killed?

The coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic is making mankind realize, once again, how insignificant we are in God’s universe — vulnerable to a tiny virus, killed like flies or crushed underfoot like ants.

The past few months must have given us a lesson in humility. But was there a greater lesson in humility than what we in Christendom commemorated last week? The Lenten Season and the passion of our Lord Jesus Christ, coinciding with the curse of COVID-19, has given us a stark reminder of our weakness and vulnerability among God’s creatures. But it has also been a reassurance of our importance in the eyes of God.

Knowing our weaknesses, God sent His only Son, to save us because we are incapable of saving ourselves. Christ assumed the same weaknesses and allowed Himself to be scourged and crucified as contrition for our sins.

Jesus had a crown of thorns forced on his head, drawing blood from his scalp and brows. Similarly, we are now being scourged by a virus named after its crown-like spikes.

We are bearing our own crown of thorns. And yet so little else is demanded of us. Like the Jews on that fateful night, we have been told to take refuge in our homes during the Passover of the Angel of Death. We are also told to wash our hands and be clean.

But there is so much more in us that needs to be cleansed. And, because of human frailties, we will be unclean again. And again — like the Israelites who wandered in the desert for 40 years because of repeated transgressions.

COVID-19 is not the first virus to ravage us. In 1976, the Ebola virus threatened the world, but it was contained, although it continues to infect people, mainly those in Africa. In the fall of 2002, the world was alarmed by the spread of SARS-CoV or Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, a type of coronavirus. Thankfully, the epidemic was brought under control in less than a year through the speedy action by governments and health authorities. In 2014, another type of coronavirus called MERS-CoV or Middle East Respiratory Syndrome emerged in Saudi Arabia. The impact on the US and the rest of the world was minimal, although it took a heavy toll in the Middle East.

Over the centuries, the world has been scourged by cholera, the bubonic plague, several strains of flu, and smallpox — making the current death toll seem small.

In 1918, the Spanish flu decimated Europe and America, claiming over 50 million lives — more than the fatalities in World War I, which was waged during the same period. In 1968, another strain of flu — H3N2, said to be an offshoot of the H2N2 or the Asian flu — was reported in Hong Kong. It then spread across Asia, including the Philippines, as well as Europe, Australia, India, and the US. The World Health Organization placed the number of fatalities at approximately 2 million, 69,800 of those in the US alone. An estimated 500,00 victims were residents of Hong Kong.

Cholera took a heavy toll in six waves. The first, in 1817, lasted six years. It started in India, due to contaminated rice, quickly spreading to Myanmar and Sri Lanka. By 1820, the epidemic had spread to Thailand, Indonesia (killing 100,000 people on the island of Java alone), and the Philippines. The disease then made its way to China in 1820 and Japan in 1822, brought by infected people on ships. The disease eventually made its way to Europe, Turkey, Syria and Southern Russia. The pandemic dissipated six years after it began. Authorities believe it was because of the severe winter of 1823.

The second cholera pandemic began around 1829. Also originating in India, it spread along trade and military routes to Eastern and Central Asia and the Middle East. By the autumn of 1830, the disease had made it to Moscow. By 1831, the pandemic had spread throughout Europe, including Great Britain. By 1832 through 1833, the cholera pandemic had also made it to the US and Latin America. The pandemic eventually ceased with the strict imposition of health and hygiene protocols, but it would reemerge in many countries for nearly two decades. The third cholera outbreak struck between 1852-1860, also spreading beyond Asia. The fourth and fifth cholera pandemics — occurring between 1863 and 1875 and 1881 to 1896, respectively — were less severe than previous pandemics, but also took a heavy toll. Between 1872 and 1873 Hungary suffered 190,000 deaths. The sixth cholera pandemic (1899-1923) did not strike too severely, particularly in Western Europe and North America, due to advances in public health and sanitation. But the disease still ravaged India, Russia, the Middle East and Northern Africa. By 1923, cholera cases had dissipated throughout much of the world, except India where it killed more than half a million people between 1918 and 1919.

In 1889-1890, a flu pandemic — called the Russian flu or the Asiatic flu — struck three separate and distant locations, Bukhara in Central Asia (Turkestan), northwestern Canada, and Greenland. Before long it had spread across the globe. In the era of bacteriology, this was considered the first true epidemic, and much was learned from analyzing its cause. But it still claimed a death toll of one million.

From 1346 to 1353, the bubonic plague, called the Black Death, ravaged Europe, Africa, and Asia, with a death toll estimated at between 75 and 200 million people. The widely varying estimates were due to lack of sophisticated tracking techniques at the time., It was thought to have been caused by fleas on the rats aboard merchant ships. As these ships reached various ports, the plague proliferated, devastating three continents.

The Plague of Justinian, a forerunner of the bubonic plague, killed some 25 million in Europe from 541-542 AD, mainly afflicting Emperor Justinian’s Byzantine Empire and the Mediterranean port cities. At its most severe, it killed up to 5,000 people a day in Constantinople alone.

The Antonine Plague, (named after the Roman emperor, Marcus Aurelius Antoninus) was either smallpox or measles. At any rate, it claimed a toll of 5 million in Asia Minor, Egypt, Greece, and Italy in 165 AD.

Will the coronavirus be the last pandemic in our lifetime? We can only turn to God for mercy and to men of learning to find a cure. As thousands of our fellowmen die, and as we ourselves face the threat of death, we realize that we are powerless alone. We need others to help us find a cure. We also realize how easily mankind can be diminished — and that we may be diminished ourselves, because we are a part of mankind. Indeed, John Donne’s poem gains new meaning for us:

“No Man Is an Island, entire of itself;

every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main.

If a clod be washed away by the sea,

Europe is the less, as well as if a promontory were,

as well as if a manor of thy friend’s or of thine own were.

Any man’s death diminishes me,

because I am involved in mankind;

and therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls;

it tolls for thee.”

Greg B. Macabenta is an advertising and communications man shuttling between San Francisco and Manila and providing unique insights on issues from both perspectives.

gregmacabenta@hotmail.com

Barangay governance: Toward small is beautiful

The pandemic crisis has reminded me of our foreign exchange shortage in the 1970s, during the Martial Law era, when we experienced rationing. This was the time when I first encountered and appreciated barangay governance. I was then living in a tiny street in Barangay Poblacion in Makati, right behind the old church and the then-Makati Catholic School (now St. Paul’s). I was renting the second floor of what I liked to refer to as a “pandemonium.”

Because of a lack of business investments then, the Marcos government was running out of dollars, and could not pay for oil imports. There was also a rice shortage. Fertilizer and chemicals had become so expensive that our farmers could not produce enough rice. Neither could we import enough rice because we had no dollars.

The impact on our lives was that gasoline and rice had to be rationed.

I don’t know how it was in other barangays, but we were fortunate in Barangay Poblacion, Makati. I think the mayor then was the dynamic Nemesio Yabut. Yabut was rumored to spend much of his time sitting in sari-sari stores, talking to his constituents and going from barangay to barangay.

Our barangay captain then was so devoted to his duties that I still remember his name now, almost 50 years later. Peping Samarista would walk up to my unit each month to ask me how much of my rations I really needed for myself. Since it was just me, my son, and his yaya (nursemaid), I did not need all of the one sack of rice allotted to each household. He always asked my permission to reallocate my “surplus” to neighbors who needed more. I honestly don’t even remember if I was paying for my rice. Probably not. I think that even then Makati was the richest LGU. Barangay Captain Samarista also provided my gasoline coupons. Since I was driving an energy-efficient Renault 4L and my office was not too far away, I did not need all of the gas coupons, so I shared them with him so he could allocate them to other neighbors. I have no doubt at all that soft spoken and low-key Peping Samarista was just doing his job. I had never met him before that rationing time, and I was not into politics. He just came up one day to my place and introduced himself. I don’t even remember if he was elected or appointed. More likely appointed since there were no elections back then. So, he was not even campaigning for my vote. I guess he did the same thing around the whole Barangay Poblacion.

Last week, my katabang (house helper) spent a weekend at her family home in the same barangay (Lahug) here in Cebu where I live. She said that she got five kilos of rice for free from our barangay office. As advised by the barangay, she also went to the local Department of Social Welfare and Development office to fill out a form so that some cash assistance would be given (delivered) to her as among the poor. She shared the rice with her sister’s family.

She also told me that the barangay people told her that my own “monthly financial assistance” as a senior citizen from Cebu City hall would be delivered by the barangay government after the Holy Week to my place instead of my having to pick it up. This arrangement was being made since senior citizens are not allowed to go out of the home these pandemic days. In fact, she said that the barangay was planning to deliver two or more months’ allowance (of P1,000/month) to our homes.

My encounter with barangay governance during these two crises have made me appreciate how much more barangays can do in community development and delivery of services once empowered to do so. My experience with Peping Samarista also makes me wonder what would happen if barangay officials, at least sitio leaders, were to develop personal relationships with their constituents. That could make government much more responsive and sensitive to people’s needs and expectations.

Perhaps there could be less garbage in the streets, and more environmentally sound lifestyles at barangay, and therefore, community levels. Perhaps sitio and barangay leaders can be trained in constructive community relations and of course, given adequate compensation for their work. More community consciousness could result in more responsible citizenship among the constituents. Local governments at municipal, city, and provincial levels could become more sensitive and responsive to their constituents’ real needs. And families can see and share beyond their own household.

Truly, small can be beautiful, as the economist E.F. Schumacher once said in his book with the subtitle “economics as if people mattered.” Perhaps from this strengthened small-community framework of governance, more appropriate methods and technologies could be developed that can improve the quality of life of our people.

 

Teresa S. Abesamis is a former professor at the Asian Institute of Management and Fellow of the Development Academy of the Philippines.

tsabesamis0114@yahoo.com

Gov’t to buy 2 million rapid test kits for novel coronavirus

PRESIDENT Rodrigo R. Duterte said his government would buy two million rapid test kits for COVID-19 as part of a plan to boost capacity to contain the virus.

In a late night address on Monday, the President said he would buy the test kits against the advice of health experts who have questioned their accuracy.

Mr. Duterte noted that the local Food and Drug Administration (FDA) must approve the use of medical supplies by the public, but he said he would “risk” the purchase of test kits approved by the US FDA.

“I am clearing the way by ordering the purchase,” Mr. Duterte said. “They can proceed to buy it immediately.”

The Department of Health (DoH) earlier said rapid test kits are not accurate and have yielded false results.

The local FDA has approved 13 rapid test kits that must be used by medical professionals.

Carlito G. Galvez, Jr., the country’s anti-COVID-19 chief enforcer, told Mr. Duterte during the televised address that the government should buy both rapid and standard test kits to avoid false results.

He said the government would buy two million rapid test kits and 900,000 standard polymerase chain reaction test kits worth more than P3 billion.

He told Mr. Duterte the law bars the Health department and Philippine Health Insurance Corp. from buying equipment without the approval of the Health Technology Assessment Council.

But the government may buy the rapid test kits through the Office of Civil Defense, he added.

In his address, Mr. Duterte also warned local government officials they could be arrested for violating social distancing protocols.

The president said he had heard reports of people holding boxing matches and gatherings, as well as of crowded public markets.

He also said he would ask the Justice department to file charges against hospitals who refuse patients amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

Meanwhile, Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI) President George T. Barcelon welcomed the state plan to buy rapid test kits, which he said could be used by the regions to change their quarantine strategies.

“The enhanced community quarantine can be modified and it’s a good development for manufacturers and other industries so they can slowly reopen,” he said at a separate briefing yesterday. — Gillian M. Cortez

10 Reasons to doubt the COVID-19 data

By Cathy O’Neil

IF YOU’RE LIKE ME, you’ve been watching the daily data on the coronavirus pandemic, seeking glimmers of hope in the trajectories: the infected, the hospitalized, the intubated, the dead.

If only there were more understanding to be had. The more I look at the numbers, the more I see their flaws. Here are my top 10.

1. The number of infected is close to meaningless. Only people who get tested can be counted, and there still aren’t enough tests — not even close, and not in any country save perhaps Iceland. The best we can do is estimate how many people are sick by guessing what percentage of the infected can obtain a test. In the US, for example, anecdotal evidence suggests that people need to be ill enough to be hospitalized. About 10% of cases merit hospitalization, so the actual number of infected might be about ten times larger than what’s reported.

2. The tests aren’t accurate and the inaccuracies aren’t symmetric. In particular, they produce many more false negatives than false positives — meaning they tend to indicate that people are OK when they’re actually sick. Some research suggests that the false negative rate could exceed 30%. This means that estimates of the true number of infections should be once again inflated.

3. The number of tests doesn’t equal the number of people tested. Because the tests are so inaccurate, some people get tested twice to be more sure of the results. This means that the share of the population tested compared to the number of people found to be infected paints a rosier picture than reality, offering yet another reason to believe that the actual number of infected is higher.

4. The numbers aren’t in sync. People sometimes die weeks after being hospitalized, and they get hospitalized a week or more after testing positive for the virus. So we shouldn’t expect the “number of deaths” curve to flatten until pretty long after the “number of cases” curve does. The bright side of this lag is that, since it takes longer to recover than to die, the death rate will go down over time.

5. The meaning of hospitalization is changing. Officials have recently presented flattening hospital admissions as a positive sign. But it takes a lot more to get somebody to the hospital these days. Hotlines are jammed, ambulances are scarce, standards for who gets hospitalized have drastically changed, and people are avoiding overwhelmed emergency rooms. So fewer hospitalizations doesn’t necessarily mean that the situation is getting better.

6. Deaths aren’t reported immediately or consistently. Various operational issues, such as paper filing and notifying next of kin, determine when a death actually gets registered. This might help explain why the most deaths tend to get reported on Tuesdays. So don’t get too excited about good news on a weekend — you might be disappointed by the beginning of the week.

7. Deaths outside hospitals aren’t being reported. When people die at home or in nursing facilities, veteran homes, or prisons, they’re not always counted. This is a biggie: When France started reporting fatalities in nursing homes, their death count increased by 40%. Belgium reports nursing home deaths pretty well, and they’re finding 40% of deaths occur there.

8. The policy for attributing deaths isn’t consistent. Once somebody is gone, why waste a valuable test? So doctors might not mention COVID-19 as a contributing cause. It’s a judgment call, especially when someone was sick already. This might have a very large effect on the data in certain environments like rehab facilities and nursing homes.

9. Officials may have incentives to hide coronavirus cases. China, Indonesia, and Iran have all come under scrutiny for their statistics. “Juking the stats” is not unknown in other contexts in the US, either. So don’t assume that officials are above outright manipulation.

10. What happens in one place, or on average, might not be applicable everywhere. Some small studies suggest that the COVID-19 mortality rate is about 1% of the infected population. But that doesn’t mean it will be the same in the US, or in New York City. Specific areas could see much worse death rates, simply because their health care systems are not as comprehensive or their populations have more chronic diseases. The US has plenty of polluted areas that seem to make people more vulnerable to infection and sicker once they get sick. As we’ve seen in recent days, such disparities are disproportionately affecting people of color.

Appealing as it may be to keep count, the true numbers might not be knowable until much later. Testing needs to be done systematically, even on asymptomatic people. For deaths, precise numbers might never emerge. It’s possible to estimate using the number of unexpected deaths compared to a year earlier. But even that’s not ideal, because lockdowns might suppress other kinds of deaths — traffic accidents, for example — by forcing people to stay at home.

Don’t get me wrong: Watching the official data is not a complete waste of time and attention.

 

BLOOMBERG OPINION

#COVID-19 Regional Updates (04/14/20)

4 of 12 NCR quarantine facilities ready

FOUR out of 12 mega quarantine facilities in the National Capital Region for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients have been completed, Bases Conversion Development Authority President and Presidential Adviser on Flagship Programs and Projects Vince B. Dizon said. In his presentation during Tuesday’s virtual hearing of the Defeat COVID-19 committee in the House of Representatives, Mr. Dizon said that they have finished preparations for the Ninoy Aquino Stadium, Rizal Memorial Stadium, Philippine International Convention Center (PICC), and the World Trade Center. Other quarantine facilities still undergoing conversion are the Quezon Institute, Philippine Sports Arena, Duty Free Philippines in Parañaque, Filinvest Tent in Alabang, Amoranto Stadium, Quezon City Memorial Circle, Veterans Medical Complex and the Philippine Arena. Mr. Dizon added that the Clark Convention Center is already operational and will start accepting patients from Pampanga and Tarlac “in the next few days.” — Genshen L. Espedido

NWRB assures enough water supply during ECQ, summer

THE National Water Resources Board (NWRB) assured that Metro Manila has enough water supply during the extended enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) until April 30 and the remaining summer period. In a radio interview, NWRB Executive Director Dr. Sevillo D. David Jr. said the current water level of Angat Dam is still “comfortable” to meet Metro Manila’s water requirements. “We still have enough water in Metro Manila. It can last this summer and until the arrival of the rainy season,” Mr. David said. As of Tuesday morning, Angat Dam’s water level was at 192.95 meters, lower by 0.20 meters from Monday, according to data from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). Mr. David estimated that the minimum operating level of 180 meters will be reached around the second week of June if the dam continues its rate of decline and the rainy season arrives later than expected. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

Iloilo officials block return of over 100 OFWs

ILOILO province’s officials, including town and city mayors, have blocked the return of overseas Filipinos workers (OFWs) currently in Manila, citing risks to their families and communities after one from another batch that came in from Cebu tested positive for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The over 100 OFWs, who were stranded in Manila following the imposition of an enhanced community quarantine in the province, were supposed to take an April 14 Philippine Airlines flight from Manila to Iloilo. In an April 13 letter to the Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines, Governor Arthur R. Defensor Jr. rejected the request for the flight to land at the Iloilo International Airport. The letter was co-signed by San Enrique Mayor Rosario F. Fernandez, provincial president of the League of Municipalities of the Philippines. “We like to see our OFWs home with their families but allowing them to come home at this time only increases the risk of more COVID-19 cases in the province of Iloilo, puts the safety of their own families at risk, and further extends the deadline of our enhanced community quarantine,” Mr. Defensor said. The provincial government, in a post on its Facebook page on Tuesday, also said the Overseas Workers Welfare Administration (OWWA) should first set up an isolation facility for returning OFWs and subject them to COVID-19 tests “before any repatriation to Iloilo can be made.” Iloilo City Mayor Jerry P. Treñas, meanwhile, said there was a breach in quarantine protocols involving the group of OFWs that arrived via a ship from Cebu last Saturday. “I was terribly shocked to learn that there was a violation of protocols established by the IATF (Inter Agency Task Force). Aside from OFWs who had finished the 14-day quarantine in Cebu, there were three undocumented persons that one person turned positive both in the rapid testing and the confirmatory PCR test,” Mr. Treñas said in a statement on Tuesday. He criticized the OWWA for failing to handle the situation and lack of coordination with the local government. “A total of 94 people had exposure to the OFW. They are personnel from the Philippine Coast Guard, 32 staff of the City Health Office, 42 crew members from Cokaliong Lines and six personnel of the Public Safety and Transportation Management Office. Personnel from the city government are now under quarantine,” the mayor said. — Emme Rose S. Santiagudo

Sarangani converts drug rehab center into COVID-19 isolation facility

PHOTO CREDIT: SARANGANI PROVINCIAL GOV’T

SARANGANI province is tapping its existing drug rehabilitation center as an isolation facility for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) suspect patients. Governor Steve Chiongbian Solon, in a statement Monday, said while the province remains free from positive COVID-19 patients, measures are in place to address the national health crisis at the local level. Parts of the Dangerous Drug Abuse Treatment and Rehabilitation Center in Alabel town, built through a P350 million funding from China, have been retrofitted to accommodate 10 patients under observation for COVID-19. Provincial health officer Arvin C. Alejandro said should there be a surge in the number of suspect cases, the contingency plan is to use the Sarangani Health Care Facility inside the Capitol compound, which will be able to accommodate up to 30 patients. Mr. Alejandro added that their office also has a list of isolation units at the barangay and municipal levels. Davao City is also using its drug rehabilitation center as one of five quarantine areas.

Nationwide round-up

Gov’t to form special team for OFW repatriation

THE government’s Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF-EID) will establish a special unit for the repatriation of overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) displaced by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) global pandemic. In a briefing Tuesday, IATF-EID Spokesperson Karlo Alexei B. Nograles said the Sub-Task Unit for the Repatriation of OFWs will “facilitate the quarantine requirement of all repatriated OFWs, whether sea-based or land-based.” The unit will be headed by the Overseas Workers Welfare Administration. Displaced OFWs will receive P10,000 each through the Department of Labor and Employment’s DoLE-AKAP assistance. The Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA), which will be part of the special unit, repatriated over a thousand more OFWs, bringing the total number to over 14,000 as of Tuesday. DFA reported that 301 seafarers from the United States arrived on Tuesday, following the repatriation of six land-based OFWs from Doha, Qatar and 299 seafarers from three cruise ships on Monday. The return of these latest batches of Filipinos was facilitated by the Philippine Embassies in Doha, Brasilia and Washington DC, and local manning agencies MSC Cruises, CF Sharp, and United Philippine Lines. Meanwhile, the DFA reported that as of April 13, there were 660 confirmed COVID-19 patients among overseas Filipinos, including 384 under treatment, 192 who have recovered, while 84 died. — Gillian M. Cortez and Charmaine A. Tadalan

Senators call for ease, expansion of cash aid distribution

PHILSTAR

SENATORS on Tuesday proposed to relax rules that hamper the distribution of cash assistance and the expansion of targeted beneficiaries to hasten the delivery of the emergency subsidy program for low income households. Senate President Vicente C. Sotto III said local government units (LGUs) may opt to “bend” or even do away with restrictions in granting the P5,000–8,000 monthly subsidy to those affected by the disruptions arising from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. “‘Yung mga rules, medyo bend ng kaunti. Luwagan ninyo ng kaunti. Kung pwede nga, ibato na sa bintana ‘yan (The rules, you can bend them a bit, ease them. If possible, just throw them out the window),” Mr. Sotto said over DzMM. He also suggested that LGUs should first tap their own budget to deliver the subsidy while waiting for the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) to download funds. Senator Ralph G. Recto, for his part, recommended that the government expand the list of beneficiaries. “My recommendation is to expand the list of families to be given subsidy. If all will be given then it will be faster,” he said in a phone message. In its third weekly report to Congress, the Palace said that LGUs may submit additional family beneficiaries to the DSWD for validation. — Charmaine A. Tadalan

Gov’t medical frontliners get higher GSIS insurance

THE Government Service Insurance System (GSIS) has increased the insurance of public health frontliners by an additional P500,000, which covers death due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and accidental death. “GSIS has increased the life insurance of our medical frontliners. Today, a GSIS medical frontliner has a life insurance of P300,000-P500,000. We increased it by an additional P500,000,” GSIS President and General Manager Rolando L. Macasaet said in his presentation during the House of Representatives virtual hearing on Tuesday. The insurance is effective from March 1 to December 31, 2020. “This is the first time the GSIS is doing this, in recognition of the heroic acts our frontliners are doing for our country and our people,” Mr. Macasaet said. — Genshen L. Espedido

Makabayan bloc asks SC to order release of vulnerable inmates

THE Makabayan bloc in Congress asked the Supreme Court (SC) to order the release of inmates who are vulnerable to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The petition came after 23 prisoners also asked to be granted temporary release through bail on humanitarian grounds during the community quarantine arising from the COVID-19 pandemic. They are prisoners who are elderly, sick, and pregnant. “The country’s congested prison and detention facilities are undoubtedly a hotbed for infection, amplification, and spread of infectious diseases, especially of his novel virus that has a mutation for increased transmissibility,” Makabayan’s letter addressed to Chief Justice Diosdado M. Peralta read. “In this extraordinary time, we appeal to this Honorable Court to exercise its extraordinary powers and order the release, en masse, of vulnerable persons deprived of liberties in the different detention and jail facilities all over the country,” they added. — Vann Marlo M. Villegas

Schools using August–July calendar may extend semester by a month

UNIVERSITIES and colleges using the August–July calendar may extend the semester for one month after the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) has been lifted, based on the latest advisory from the Commission on Higher Education (CHEd). For institutions using the June–May academic calendar, they may continue the current semester until April 30 through flexible learning options. CHED, in its April 13 advisory, has extended the suspension of classes in all levels and school activities for the entire Luzon until April 30, in line with the extension of the ECQ. Class suspension in areas outside Luzon will be determined by the local government according to the level of risks posed by the coronavirus disease. — Charmaine A. Tadalan

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