By Chloe Mari A. Hufana and Adrian H. Halili, Reporters

PHILIPPINE President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.’s anti-corruption drive on flood control project risks being dismissed as political theater unless it delivers prosecutions and convictions, political analysts said, as business groups pressed him to match rhetoric with accountability and reforms.

“Investigations alone are not enough to rally the confidence and support of any investors,” Gary D. Ador Dionisio, dean at De La Salle-College of St. Benilde’s School of Diplomacy and Governance, said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

“Tangible results are the real game-changer,” he added, noting that Mr. Marcos’ anti-graft campaign would not stand apart from past administrations unless Filipinos witness concrete outcomes — from the filing of major graft cases to the conviction and jailing of lawmakers, public works officials and private contractors involved in the scandal.

Recent protests have amplified calls for transparency, with business groups, investors and citizens demanding credible investigations, reforms in procurement and auditing systems and stronger safeguards against misuse of funds.

In July, the President launched a sweeping anti-graft campaign after a series of storms and monsoon rains exposed the country’s outdated flood control systems.

This brought several investigations, leadership changes in Congress and agencies and the creation of an independent body for infrastructure probes.

Mr. Ador Dionisio said credit should be given to Mr. Marcos for initiating, exposing and to some extent institutionalizing the crackdown on flood control corruption, even if the primary casualties of this anti-corruption drive are his own party mates and congressional allies.

The investigations have implicated some of the President’s allies in receiving alleged kickbacks from infrastructure projects, including his cousin, former Speaker and Leyte Rep. Ferdinand Martin G. Romualdez.

Hansley A. Juliano, a political science lecturer at the Ateneo de Manila University, cited deeper structural limits on any crackdown made by past administrations.

He said past administrations failed to curb corruption due to entrenched clientelism, congressional dependence on presidential budget largesse and the security of dynastic politicians, letting many to simply lie low and wait for regime transitions.

The President faces a dilemma, Mr. Juliano said. “Can he crack down on allies and court public opinion to demonstrate his sincerity and moral character — something he hasn’t been known to live up to before?” he asked.

“Unless these politicians can be defeated in elections and their machinery subsequently dismantled, they basically can mount a comeback and keep their local and national clientele loyal,” he said via Messenger chat. “Cracking down on their assets via a national bureaucracy loyal to the Constitution is also necessary.”

Flood control has long been a major governance and development issue in the Philippines, a country highly prone to typhoons, heavy monsoon rains and rapid urbanization that worsens flooding. 

Billions of pesos are allocated annually for flood management projects such as drainage systems, dikes, pumping stations and river improvements. The government has since suspended such projects for next year due to corruption issues.

Despite this, severe flooding continues to displace communities, disrupt economic activity and strain disaster response systems, particularly in Metro Manila and other low-lying regions.

LEGITIMACY GAP
Meanwhile, analysts said the government’s independent investigation of anomalous infrastructure projects should be more transparent.

Arjan P. Aguirre, a political science lecturer at the Ateneo, said the Independent Commission for Infrastructure (ICI) must address its legitimacy gap. As an entity created by the Executive, it is inherently unable to oppose the interests of its appointee, so it must at least appear transparent, he said in a Messenger chat.

He said it should allow the public and stakeholders to scrutinize information it gathers during the probe.

“With this openness, other stakeholders such as the media, academic institutions, civil society groups, concerned individuals, etc. can have the opportunity to validate the information that is acquired by the commission,” he added.

Mr. Marcos formed the body to probe anomalies in flood control and other infrastructure projects, with authority to recommend criminal, civil and administrative charges.

Michael Henry Ll. Yusingco, a fellow at the Ateneo Policy Center, said the ICI investigations might only be a smokescreen to protect the President from public outrage.

“The ICI allows Malacañang to promote the narrative that the President is blameless and that he is in fact spearheading the crusade to get to the bottom of it all,” he said in a Messenger chat.

Josue Raphael J. Cortez, who teaches diplomacy at De La Salle-College of St. Benilde, said less transparency might continue to stir public unrest.

“It may erode trust in state institutions, which in turn may also negatively impact how the government can ensure order and security,” he said via Messenger chat. “At the same time, we also need to bear in mind that investors are looking at the political climate in their decision-making processes.”

He added that any preliminary findings by the ICI should be handled with caution and confidentiality.

“The last thing we would want is public opinion clashing with their ongoing investigations — all for the sake of opening up about every step the ICI is taking,” he said.

Last week, thousands of Filipinos marched in the capital in the biggest protest in years against the multibillion-peso flood control scandal, turning weeks of online outrage over corruption into mass street demonstrations that rattled the political establishment.