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The corona credit binge is dominated by the biggest companies

While their bigger peers are setting records for blockbuster deals at historically low rates, many smaller companies are getting muscled out or losing access altogether. Tighter financing conditions and falling revenues raise the specter of a fresh wave of bankruptcies that could imperil the economic recovery.

In the pandemic era of haves and have-nots, the big are getting bigger across global credit markets like rarely seen before.

Companies with annual revenues above $1 billion dominate corporate borrowing now more than any time in at least a decade, according to the Bank for International Settlements. These firms account for 78% of global issuers of dollar bonds so far this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

While their bigger peers are setting records for blockbuster deals at historically low rates, many smaller companies are getting muscled out or losing access altogether. Tighter financing conditions and falling revenues raise the specter of a fresh wave of bankruptcies that could imperil the economic recovery.

BILLION-DOLLAR CLUB
“Led by easier access to bond markets, large firms significantly increased their borrowing,” BIS researchers Tirupam Goel and José María Serena wrote this month in a report about credit during the COVID-19 crisis. “The rest of the firms faced bottlenecks due to their reliance on a strained syndicated loan market and hurdles in switching to bond markets.”

There are lots of reasons why the riches of quantitative easing programs aren’t being enjoyed equally. For one, investors want the safety of stable, blue-chip companies in a recession. Although the Federal Reserve is taking unprecedented steps to help smaller companies and buying their debt for the first time, many of the neediest remain outside its reach.

The disparity underscores the lopsided economic recovery as the pandemic intensifies long-standing issues of inequality. Researchers at Princeton University and the University of Chicago found that a decline in the long-term interest rate leads to “more concentrated markets” by encouraging market leaders to borrow relative to followers, and inhibits “aggregate productivity growth.”

The trend echoes the aftermath of the global financial crisis, when banks also pulled back funding to small- and medium-sized companies. A decade of balance sheet repair has made banks much healthier now than then; yet it’s also made them more risk-averse as they prepare for a wave of loan defaults, according to the BIS report.

At the same time, lenders have been forced to accommodate $1 trillion of drawn credit lines by companies struggling to stay afloat at the height of the pandemic, according to the BIS. That’s pushed them closer to regulatory capital risk limits.

“Although the current crisis did not originate in the banking sector, banks seem to be pulling in their horns as their lending capacities have been hit, and a dim economic outlook has made them more cautious,” according to the BIS. — Bloomberg

Beach holidays for some in China, belt tightening for others

The recovery in China’s consumption is moving in two different directions, with the wealthier shopping for luxury goods and taking holidays to the beach, while poorer households continue to cut back.

Revenue at the tropical beach resort of Sanya was up almost 20% in July from a year earlier, and sales of some luxury car brands rose more than 20% in the month. By comparison, consumers cut back on purchases of clothes, home appliances or dining out, pushing total retail sales down about 1% in July.

Unlike many other nations, China’s stimulus policies didn’t include direct support for individual incomes, being more focused on providing easier financing for companies. Millions of Chinese lost their jobs after the pandemic hit in January, and even if they have been able find new work or return to their old jobs, they won’t be able to easily recover that lost income.

Travel data shows the difference between who is spending and who isn’t. Many poorer Chinese travel by road, taking long-distance buses from their rural villages to the cities for work, and that is well down on 2019. By comparison, flight numbers had recovered for many cities, indicating demand for more expensive plane travel.

Retail car sales growth accelerated in July, rising 7.9% from a year earlier, signaling a recovery from a two-year slump. But sales of cars from BMW AG, Mercedes Benz AG, or Toyota Motor Corp.’s Lexus brand all grew at least 25% over the same period, showing how quickly luxury demand bounced back from the pandemic-induced contraction.

With the nation’s army of big spenders trapped at home, domestic tourism hot-spots have been big winners. Tour group reservations spiked mid-July after a ban was removed, data from Trip.com Group shows, with Lijiang in Yunnan and Sanya on Hainan island the top destinations for domestic visitors.

The expansion of duty-free shopping has also been one factor driving this rebound. More than 5 billion yuan ($723 million) was spent on duty-free goods in Hainan from early July to mid-August, according to local government data, more than double the amount in the same period in 2019.

Hainan is often called the Hawaii of China, but with a popular five-day package holiday there costing 2,700 yuan, or more than the monthly median disposable income, it’s the preserve of the few.

As elsewhere, the wealthy in China aren’t really affected by the pandemic—they still have the same salary and can work from home, according to Iris Pang, Greater China chief economist at ING Bank NV in Hong Kong. But lower-income groups have been hit hard by closures and social distancing.

“We need to have the mass market return to normal to see retail sales, especially the catering businesses, get back to the pre-COVID sales level,” she said. Until then, the “wealth gap will continue to widen.” — Bloomberg

Seven-day virus killer is cleared for American Airlines planes

The Trump administration on Monday gave American Airlines Group Inc. emergency approval to deploy a new weapon against COVID-19: a surface coating that kills coronaviruses for as many as seven days.

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued the emergency declaration for Allied BioScience Inc.’s SurfaceWise2 product, allowing it to be used in some American Airlines planes and airport facilities, as well as two Texas locations of Total Orthopedics Sports & Spine. All three companies are based in Texas, which sought the exemption.

“This is a major, game-changing announcement for our efforts to combat coronavirus and COVID-19,” EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler told reporters on a conference call. “This is a groundbreaking step that is expected to provide a longer-lasting protection in public spaces, increasing consumer confidence in resuming normal air travel and other activities.”

The move comes as the Trump administration seeks to propel emerging treatments and protections against the coronavirus, and as several companies race to deliver an effective, safe vaccine. On Sunday, President Donald Trump announced the administration was authorizing the use of a blood-plasma treatment for COVID-19. (Related story: FDA head walks back claim of dramatic benefit from COVID therapy)

The emergency approval could help restore public confidence in flying amid the coronavirus pandemic. Airlines have used a variety of products and measures to clean aircraft and help convince consumers it’s safe to fly, but the industry is still suffering from the demand collapse that began in April as COVID-19 spread and governments imposed travel restrictions. Air traffic remains less than 30% of where it was a year ago, based on passenger screenings by the Transportation Security Administration at US airports.

Airline shares extended gains after the EPA conference call on the product approval amid a broad rally in travel stocks tied to optimism about possible treatments and vaccines for coronavirus. A Standard & Poor’s 500 index of the five largest US carriers rose 7.8% at 3:27 p.m. in New York, led by a nearly 11% jump at American.

The EPA issued the emergency exemption to Texas under the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act. Mr. Wheeler said he expects other states to seek their own exemptions, potentially opening up the product’s use in other airlines, schools and other facilities. Allied BioScience is already pursuing a broader EPA approval to allow widespread use of the disinfectant.

SurfaceWise2 works by binding to surfaces and continuing to kill the viruses and bacteria that land on it, including the virus that causes COVID-19, said Maha El-Sayed, chief science officer for Allied BioScience.

PRODUCT DEPLOYMENT
American Airlines plans to use the anti-viral spray to supplement its existing regimen—with cleaning and disinfecting coming before the SurfaceWise2 application, Chief Operating Officer David Seymour said in an interview. The product, which won’t be applied sooner than every seven days, will be sprayed throughout aircraft, except in cockpits crammed with sensitive electronics.

It will take time for American Airlines to deploy the product in more than 1,400 planes, including regional aircraft. Under the current EPA authorization, the carrier is initially limited to applying the disinfectant in the state of Texas, and some of its planes don’t typically stop in the state.

The company is pursuing approvals for SurfaceWise2’s use in 10 to 12 other states, Mr. Seymour said. Allied and American also are seeking a certification that the product lasts longer than seven days, buttressed by an Allied BioScience machine that allows the company to detect where the spray is still killing viruses.

“What we really like about SurfaceWise is it provides a continuous protection versus most electrostatic products that provide momentary cleaning,” Mr. Seymour said.

The EPA’s exemptions can only be offered in response to applications from states and other federal agencies, Mr. Wheeler said. And for now, as the EPA hasn’t granted a blanket authorization, the agency needs to vet proposed uses on a surface-by-surface basis. — Bloomberg

 

Foxconn, other Asian firms consider Mexico factories as China risks grow

HONG KONG/TAIPEI/MEXICO CITY — Taiwan-based electronics manufacturers Foxconn and Pegatron are among companies eyeing new factories in Mexico, people with direct knowledge of the matter said, as the US-China trade war and coronavirus pandemic prompt firms to reexamine global supply chains.

The plans could usher in billions of dollars in badly needed fresh investments over the next few years for Latin America’s second-largest economy, which is primed for its worst recession since the 1930s Great Depression.

Foxconn and Pegatron are known as contractors for several phone manufacturers including Apple. It was not immediately clear which companies they would work within Mexico.

According to two of the sources, Foxconn has plans to use the factory to make Apple iPhones. However, one of the sources said, there had been no sign of Apple’s direct involvement in the plan yet.

Foxconn is likely to make a final decision on a new factory later this year, and work will commence after that, the two people said, adding there was no certainty the company would stick to the plan.

Apple spokesman Josh Rosenstock declined to comment.

Pegatron is also in early discussions with lenders about an additional facility in Mexico mainly to assemble chips and other electronic components, said the people, who declined to be identified as the talks are confidential. Pegatron declined to comment.

Foxconn has five factories in Mexico mainly making televisions and servers. Its possible expansion would underscore a broader and gradual shift of global supply chains away from China amid a Sino-US trade war and the coronavirus crisis.

The plans come as the idea of “near-shoring” gains ground in Washington. The Trump administration is exploring financial incentives to encourage firms to move production facilities from Asia to the United States, Latin America, and the Caribbean.

Brandishing a new deal locking in free trade with the world’s biggest consumer market, Mexico also has geography, low wages, and time zones in its favor. Despite the global recession and concerns about the business climate under President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, government data shows foreign investment largely holding up so far this year.

“The company indeed has contacted the (Mexican) government,” a third source said about Foxconn, adding the talks were at an early stage and rising cases of coronavirus in Mexico were a major concern for the possible investment.

Taipei-headquartered Foxconn, formally called Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. Ltd., said in a statement that while it continued to expand global operations and is an “active investor” in Mexico, it had no current plans to increase those investments.

Reuters in July reported Foxconn planned to invest up to $1 billion to expand a factory in India where it assembles Apple iPhones.

Foxconn Chairman Liu Young-way told an investor conference in Taipei on Aug. 12 the world was split into “G2”—or two groups—following Sino-US tensions, saying his firm was working on “providing two sets of supply chain to service the two markets.”

“The world factory no longer exists,” he said, adding that about 30% of the company’s products were now made outside China and the ratio could increase.

Foxconn unit Sharp has said it is stepping up television production in Mexico. Sharp last year said it would set up a plant in Vietnam to shift part of its China production. It said it had no further information to give.

China’s Luxshare Precision Industry Co. is also considering building a facility in Mexico this year to offset the tariff war between the world’s two largest economies, the two sources said.

It was not immediately clear which product lines were being considered by Luxshare, which according to media reports is a leading manufacturer of Apple Airpods. Luxshare did not respond to a request for comment.

The Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Mexico, which represents Taiwan’s government in the country, said it had heard Foxconn was interested in building another factory in Ciudad Juarez, in the northern border state of Chihuahua.

“Pegatron, I also understand, wants to move a production line from China to Mexico,” the office’s Director General Armando Cheng told Reuters. He said he did not know details of either company’s plans.

“Mexico is one of the ideal countries for companies considering readjusting their chain of suppliers,” Mr. Cheng said.

The scale of investment by Asian electronics contract manufacturers, and the employment they would create in Mexico, are not yet clear.

Promised investment in new manufacturing capacity has not always materialized.

In 2017, US President Donald J. Trump said Foxconn would build a $10 billion plant employing 13,000 people making LCD panels in the state of Wisconsin.

Those plans have shifted dramatically. In 2019 the company downgraded the size of the planned factory. In April, Foxconn said it would make ventilators at the plant in partnership with Medtronic.

STRETCHED SUPPLY CHAINS
Coronavirus ground cross-Pacific supply chains to a standstill, stranding automobile, electronics and pharmaceutical components from China, exacerbating firms’ concerns about having their productive base an ocean away from American consumers.

Additionally, the newly implemented United States-Mexico-Canada trade deal requires more locally sourced inputs for tariff-free exports to the United States.

Mexico has spoken to a host of foreign companies in an effort to lure business from Asia to capitalize on the trade deal and was preparing to speak to Apple about relocating manufacturing, Economy Minister Graciela Marquez told Reuters in July.

She said she had not spoken to Foxconn, Pegatron, and Luxshare directly. A senior government official said those companies were among others interested in investing in Mexico.

The government did not respond to a request for further comment prior to publication.

Despite the potential and solid investment figures, many investors see Lopez Obrador squandering a historic opportunity.

“It could have been a tidal wave,” said Eduardo Ramos-Gomez, a partner at Duane Morris & Selvam, a law firm working with Taiwanese and Chinese companies looking at Mexico.

Critics cite Mexico’s poor handling of the pandemic—it is third in global deaths—along with Lopez Obrador’s meddling in private investment decisions such as the cancellation of a $1-billion brewery by US firm Constellation Brands, the scrapping of a major airport project and pressure on energy companies.

The government has denied such decisions were anti-business.

Regardless, Mexico’s appeal is attracting some.

Samuel Campos, an executive managing director of real estate brokerage Newmark Knight Frank, said his company is currently helping two Chinese companies, one in the autos sector and the other in manufacturing, relocate to an industrial cluster in Mexico.

Mr. Campos said electronics, medical and automotive firms in Asia are likely to help drive investments into Mexico in the fourth quarter this year. For Alan Russell, chief executive and chairman of Tecma Group, a company managing factories in Mexico, manufacturers in China that want to keep market share in North America have few choices.

“They’re going to have shorten their supply chain and be more regional,” he said. “It seems the virus has tipped the scale.” — Reuters

 

Philippine army may seek martial law return after suicide attacks

Twin blasts that killed 15 people in the volatile southern Philippines could both have been suicide bombings, the military said on Tuesday, representing an escalation of violence that the army chief said may require martial law to be re-imposed.

Monday’s explosions on the southwest island of Jolo killed a mix of soldiers, police, civilians and at least one bomber and wounded 78 people, in the Philippines’ deadliest attack since a double suicide bombing at a church in January 2019 left 20 people dead and wounded at least 100.

The first explosion on Monday, initially thought to be motorcycle bomb, killed six troops and six civilians, the army said. A policeman and a soldier were killed an hour later when a female suicide bomber approached the site of the first attack.

“The first explosion was possibly suicide bombing also,” said Brigadier General William Gonzales, regional task force commander. “But we can’t identify the bomber because a body around the crater was mangled to pieces.”

There was no claim of responsibility for the attacks in the main town on Jolo, a stronghold of the Abu Sayyaf, a militant group linked to Islamic State and to at least six suicide bombings, which are a recent phenomenon in the Philippines.

President Rodrigo R. Duterte has created a special infantry division in the Sulu archipelago to wipe out the Abu Sayyaf, which is notorious also for kidnappings and beheadings.

Mr. Duterte made no mention of the attack in remarks on Tuesday.

Army chief, Lieutenant General Cirilito Sobejana, said re-imposing martial law in Sulu could help isolate and track down the Abu Sayyaf network.

Martial law was lifted at the end of last year in the Mindanao region, which includes Sulu, two-and-a-half years after it was imposed to fight Islamic State-inspired militants who took over Marawi City.

“The situation dictates, calls for it, with that recent incident with many casualties, to better control the population,” Mr. Sobejana told reporters.

“It is wise to declare martial law again.” — Reuters

 

Starbucks cafe’s COVID outbreak spared employees who wore masks

After a woman with the coronavirus visited a Starbucks cafe north of Seoul this month, more than two dozen patrons tested positive days later. But the four face mask-wearing employees escaped infection.

The Aug. 8 outbreak in the South Korean city of Paju is another example of how rapidly the SARS-CoV-2 virus can spread in confined, indoor spaces—as well as ways to minimize transmission. With health authorities around the world still debating the evidence around face masks, the 27-person cluster linked to the air-conditioned coffee outlet adds more support for their mandatory use to help limit the spread of the COVID-19-causing virus.

“This speaks volumes about the role masks can play,” said Ma Sang Hyuk, a pediatric infectious diseases physician at Changwon Fatima Hospital in South Korea. “Masks may not provide 100% protection, but there’s nothing out there that’s as effective.”

Guidance on face masks is being issued from Australia to Venezuela to help stem the pandemic, which has infected more than 23 million people and killed at least 810,000 worldwide. Face coverings will become mandatory in New Zealand for residents using public transport and inside ride-sharing vehicles, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said Monday. Last week, the World Health Organization issued advice on their use in children.

But resistance to mask-wearing remains in some countries like the US, where some people object to being compelled to wear masks when entering shops or restaurants. Misinformation over their effectiveness and safety has also spread.

Officials assume that most patrons didn’t consistently wear masks as they were drinking and eating while in the Starbucks Corp. outlet in South Korea, according to Gang Young-do, a spokesperson for the Paju government. A ceiling-mounted air-conditioning was helping to cool the second-floor outlet, he said.

“The virus may spread where people can’t wear masks while eating or drinking tea, as witnessed at the Starbucks in Paju,” Jung Eun-kyeong, head of the Korea Centers for Disease Control & Prevention, told reporters in Seoul on Sunday.

The Starbucks case is one of “the most important opportunities to study risk factors among a more or less controlled cohort of people,” said Arnold Bosman, director at Transmissible BV, a Netherlands-based developer of training materials for outbreak control. “This Starbucks event will be a very valuable training exercise for future generations of epidemiologists.”

A person sitting under an airconditioner infected 27 others with coronavirus at a Starbucks cafe in South Korea, but none of employees, who were wearing masks, got the virus https://t.co/7SYdKEglZT pic.twitter.com/VXA4Aw8uGv

— Sam Kim (@samkimasia) August 22, 2020

The Starbucks infections later led to about three dozen more cases outside the coffee shop as of Aug. 24. They add to the more than 3,000 this month that have prompted the South Korean government to consider imposing the highest level of physical distancing rules — a blow to an economy that’s managed to avert a steep recession so far.

The Seoul metropolitan area has emerged as a virus hot spot, and local government authorities made it mandatory this week for all citizens to wear masks both indoors and outdoors. — Bloomberg

Hong Kong man has first documented COVID-19 reinfection

A 33-year-old man who had recovered from a severe case of COVID-19 in April was infected again four months later in the first documented instance of human reinfection, University of Hong Kong researchers said on Monday. 

In August, after returning from a trip to Europe, he was diagnosed again—but with a different strain of the virus. While the first infection landed him in the hospital, the second produced no symptoms. Genetically, the first virus was closely related to strains collected in March/April while the second was closely related to strains collected in July/August, the researchers wrote in a report seen by Reuters. 

“Our findings suggest that SARS-CoV-2 may persist in the global human population as is the case for other common-cold associated human coronaviruses,” they said in a statement. “Since the immunity can be short lasting after natural infection, vaccination should also be considered for those with one episode of infection,” researchers said. 

“Patients with previous COVID-19 infection should also comply with epidemiological control measures such as universal masking and social distancing,” they added. The report has been accepted for publication in Clinical Infectious Diseases. — Reuters

Brazil’s Bolsonaro says journalist ‘wimps’ more likely to die of COVID-19

BRASILIA — Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro continued his attack on journalists during a public event on Monday, describing reporters as “wimps” and saying they have a heightened chance of dying of COVID-19 because they are not athletic.

The right-wing former army captain has long had a fractious relationship with the media, frequently singling out specific newspapers and journalists for his ire. His followers have also attacked journalists at rallies and other public events.

On Sunday, Mr. Bolsonaro told a reporter, “I want to punch you in the face,” after the reporter asked about thousands of dollars that were transferred into a bank account of the president’s wife by a former aide who is now the target of a corruption probe.

During the Monday event, titled “Defeating COVID-19,” Mr. Bolsonaro described his own experience battling the virus in July, crediting his use of unproven drug hydroxychloroquine and his self-described history as an athlete for his mild symptoms. He has previously said he believed his athletic past made him immune to the worst of the coronavirus.

“That history of an athlete, the press feasted on it, but when (COVID-19) gets one of you wimps, your chance of surviving is quite a bit lower,” Mr. Bolsonaro told reporters on Monday, using the Portuguese colloquial word bundao.

“You only know how to do evil, to use a pen largely for evil. Your chance of surviving is quite a bit lower.”

Earlier this month, local media reported that the aide, Fabricio Queiroz, deposited 72,000 reais ($12,900) in checks into Michelle Bolsonaro’s account between 2011 and 2018.

Mr. Queiroz was an aide to now Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the president’s eldest son, when he was a Rio de Janeiro state legislator. The former aide has been arrested in an investigation into bank deposits made at the time, amounting to 1.2 million reais.  — Reuters

FDA head walks back claim of dramatic benefit from COVID therapy

The head of the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) walked back his claim that an experimental therapy had provided a dramatic benefit to COVID-19 patients, a rare reversal for an agency that has prided itself on rock-solid science and public trust.

On Sunday night at a press conference with President Donald Trump, FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn said that blood plasma from COVID-19 survivors given to new patients could save huge numbers of lives.

“What that means is—and if the data continue to pan out—100 people who are sick with COVID-19, 35 would have been saved because of the administration of plasma,” Mr. Hahn said. Hahn’s remarks followed similar comments by Mr. Trump, who said that the therapy is “proven to reduce mortality by 35%,” and by Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Alex Azar.

On Monday night, Mr. Hahn reversed himself.

“I have been criticized for remarks I made Sunday night about the benefits of convalescent plasma. The criticism is entirely justified,” Mr. Hahn said in a tweet.

Mr. Hahn had spent much of Monday taking heat from health experts, including two former FDA commissioners, for his remarks.

“That was not the way that I would have worded it,” said one of the doctors who led the blood plasma study, Arturo Casadevall, chair of the department of molecular microbiology and immunology at the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health. “I hope they will issue a clarification,” he said earlier Monday.

What the data do show is that a higher dose of blood plasma is better than a lower one. And while there are promising signals that it will lead to a real benefit when compared to a placebo, that’s not known yet.

“Until we have a randomized controlled trial, we don’t know definitively,” Mr. Casadevall said.

The administration’s misrepresentation of the data may raise fears about how Mr. Hahn and the rest of the administration will treat data on a vaccine for the virus. Mr. Trump has said he expects one to be ready in time for his potential re-election, and on Saturday accused unnamed members of the “deep state” at the FDA of slowing work to hurt him politically. The “deep state” is a term used by Mr. Trump to describe employees of government agencies that he believes are manipulating policy to work against his interests. There is no evidence this is happening at the FDA.

The 35% statistic also has several fatal flaws. Since everyone in the program received blood plasma, it’s not known what would have happened compared with patients who didn’t get the therapy. And scores of variables, like how sick the patients were and when they were treated—that could have skewed the results.

Robert Califf, the FDA commissioner under President Barack Obama, said that he thought Hahn had misspoken. “It would be good for Steve to publish a correction,” Mr. Califf said on Twitter earlier Monday.

Messrs. Azar and Hahn both have extensive experience with drugs and therapies. Mr. Azar is a former pharmaceutical executive, and Mr. Hahn has spent several decades treating patients and researching cancer. Before joining the FDA, he was the chief medical executive of the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, a leading oncology treatment and research hospital.

In a tweet posted earlier Monday, Mr. Hahn said that the agency will “reevaluate our emergency use authorization (EUA) based upon new incoming data that we receive.”

WIDE USE

Blood plasma from recovered patients is being used around the world, with the hope that its infection-fighting antibodies can help combat the virus. It doesn’t appear to pose a major safety risk, and on Sunday the Trump administration announced an emergency FDA measure to make it more widely available. Several studies have shown promising signs of efficacy.

“Based on the data we have today, it’s very likely that plasma is reducing mortality,” Mr. Casadevall said. “The one thing we are missing is a randomized controlled trial,” the gold-standard test that will tell researchers and regulators if blood plasma is a breakthrough, an incremental help or something in between.

To understand the confusion over the 35% figure, it’s important to look at two concepts: relative risk and absolute risk.

Imagine a clinical trial to test an experimental drug, with 2,000 patients split into two groups. The first 1,000 patients don’t get the drug, and in that group 10 people die. The other group of 1,000 patients gets the drug, and five people in that group die.

Using relative risk, that’s a 50% improvement—a tremendous number. But using absolute risk, the imaginary drug only decreases the likelihood of death by 0.5%. That means 5 more of those 1,000 people treated with the drug would live, not the 500 implied if you mistakenly use the 50% relative risk number.

The claim of a 35% mortality benefit made by Messrs. Trump, Azar and Hahn uses the first measure—relative risk. But because clinical trials of plasma therapy haven’t been completed, how many lives it actually saves—the absolute risk improvement—still isn’t known.

Mr. Hahn, in his tweet Monday, said he had muddled the difference. “What I should have said better is that the data show a relative risk reduction not an absolute risk reduction,” he said.

The FDA analysis was pulled from a subset of data in the trial—typically a no-no for credible studies. And despite a day of criticism online from doctors and researchers, Mr. Hahn’s correction wasn’t enough for some.

“You need to correct the 35 lives saved per 100 sick with COVID-19 so people understand that was absolutely wrong, Steve,” Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in California, said on Twitter. “That there is no evidence to support that. That there is no evidence at this juncture to support *any* survival benefit.”

TWEETS

Doctors and patients rely on the FDA to put out authoritative information about the safety and efficacy of drugs, vaccines, medical devices, and other products, guiding their use not just in the US but around the world. The agency has historically carefully guarded its reputation and scientific independence,

Mr. Hahn’s comments about 35 out of 100 people being saved were still posted to the FDA’s official twitter account as of Monday afternoon.

Emily Miller, the FDA spokeswoman, repeated the error in a tweet after the press conference, saying “convalescent plasma has shown to be beneficial for 35% of patients.” While she clarified the error in a follow-up message about an hour later, the FDA’s main twitter account still carries Mr. Hahn’s misstatement.

Alyssa Farah, a White House spokeswoman made a similarly misleading tweet, saying that the therapy cuts mortality by 30% to 50%. And Michael Caputo, Mr. Azar’s chief spokesman at HHS, echoed the claim: “If you’re one of the 35 people out of a hundred who survive severe COVID symptoms because of convalescent plasma, you’re damn right this is a BREAKTHROUGH.”

Ms. Farah didn’t respond to emails requesting comment. Mr. Caputo deferred comment to the FDA, though his tweet with the incorrect information was still up as of 10 p.m. Monday in New York.

Mr. Hahn’s predecessor Scott Gottlieb, who served as FDA commissioner under Mr. Trump from 2017 to 2019, said he thought the FDA was right to allow convalescent blood plasma for emergency use. But he suggested the press conference hadn’t given the correct picture of what health regulators actually know from the data.

“When we overstate findings it erodes confidence in science and undermines public trust in regulatory decisions. The right message was this ‘may’ provide a benefit, it could be meaningful for some patients, but we need more evidence to prove it,” Mr. Gottlieb said in a tweet.

“The way the public part was handled will erode precious public confidence,” he said. “You earn public confidence in small drops and you lose it in buckets.” — Bloomberg

Pag-IBIG loan policies set to help borrowers keep homes amid pandemic

Top officials of Pag-IBIG Fund on Wednesday (Aug.19) assured borrowers that the agency’s loan policies are designed to help them keep their homes, especially during the pandemic.

“We heed President Duterte’s call to prioritize the welfare of our fellow Filipinos during these challenging times. We want to help members keep their homes, especially now because that is the safest place they can be. Pag-IBIG Fund extends favorable terms to our home loan borrowers. We give them several remedies to save their properties in case of default. Our remediation process also gives borrowers at least one year to update their accounts,” said Secretary Eduardo D. del Rosario, who heads the Department of Human Settlements and Urban Development (DHSUD) and the 11-member Pag-IBIG Fund Board of Trustees.

According to del Rosario, home loan borrowers who may encounter financial difficulties as a result of the pandemic can avail of Pag-IBIG Fund’s loan restructuring and penalty condonation programs. The programs are meant to help borrowers update their loans and avoid foreclosure.

Pag-IBIG Fund Chief Executive Officer Acmad Rizaldy P. Moti added that unlike most financial institutions, Pag-IBIG Fund’s rules on penalty are more compassionate towards borrowers. The agency computes penalties based only on unpaid dues instead of the outstanding loan balance.

“Due to the economic slowdown, we expect to see default rates climb in the next few months. We want to assure our borrowers that we take into consideration their unexpected loss of income as a result of the pandemic. We at Pag-IBIG Fund remain committed to enable Filipino workers not only to buy homes, but to keep their homes. COVID-19 will not change that,” said Moti.

In the first half of the year, Pag-IBIG Fund deferred more than P15 billion in total loan payments when it granted an automatic grace period to all its 4.77 million borrowers, in accordance with the Bayanihan to Heal as One Act and its Implementing Rules and Regulations.

The agency also granted qualified borrowers a three-month loan payment moratorium from March 16 to June 15, 2020, giving them longer reprieves without incurring additional penalties and other charges.

‘BBB’ funding excluded from loan limit

THE central bank’s mandated limit on big banks’ real estate loans will not include loans and securities that will finance public infrastructure projects, in a bid to boost the government’s “Build, Build, Build” (BBB) program.

Circular No. 1093 signed by Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Benjamin E. Diokno raised the limit on real estate loan exposure to 25% of banks’ total loan book from the current 20%, a move seen to unleash P1.2 trillion in additional liquidity for real estate lending.   

“Real estate exposures shall not include loans and investments in debt and equity securities the proceeds of which are used to finance infrastructure projects for public use…,” the circular read.

BSP Deputy Governor Chuchi G. Fonacier said in a text message the provision will “support funding for the Build, Build, Build program of the government.”

As the coronavirus crisis plunged the economy into a recession, the government is betting its aggressive infrastructure push will help drive recovery in 2021.

The BBB program currently includes 92 infrastructure projects worth P4.4 trillion.

In the circular, BSP said a real estate stress test (REST) will be done to gauge the bank’s exposure to commercial real estate loans, specifically to individual households, sole proprietorships, land developers and construction companies.

The prudential limit will also cover loans extended to corporate borrowers with real estate-related loans such as brokers, lessors, property management companies, and holding companies, among others.

“A universal/commercial bank which does not meet either or both the REST limits shall incorporate assessment of risks from this exposure in its internal capital adequacy assessment process (ICAAP),” it said.

The BSP has earlier said the new guidelines will exclude residential real estate loans to individuals for own occupancy and foreclosed real estate property.

The rule to increase loan limits for the real estate sector is a complementary move after the central bank maintained key policy rates last week, said Colegio de San Juan de Letran Graduate School Dean Emmanuel J. Lopez.

“The move is meant to stimulate investment in the real estate area which as of late experienced a big blow because of the pandemic,” Mr. Lopez said in a text message.

The real estate sector makes up about 18.5% of total loans in June, slightly bigger than the 17.4% share in the same month of 2019 and the 18.4% in May, BSP data showed.

Outstanding loans extended by big banks for the sector was at P1.72 trillion in June from P1.47 trillion a year ago, data from BSP showed. Credit for real estate activities increased 16.8% year on year during the month, slower than the 19.6% pace in May.

TIME TO PAUSE
Meanwhile, Mr. Diokno on Monday said it’s time to pause in easing in order to gauge how previous rate cuts are being digested.

“We have to appreciate that monetary policy works with a lag. Now that the economy is starting to open up, I think it’s time for us to pause and see how the economy is absorbing our loose monetary policy,” Mr. Diokno said in an interview with ANC on Monday.

On Thursday, the Monetary Board maintained the benchmark rates, citing the manageable inflation outlook and some early signs of recovery.

“[There were] early signs of recovery in manufacturing and exports. The construction business, especially public constructions, will pick with the BBB infrastructure programs,” Mr. Diokno said in a text message.

Mr. Diokno also said they are also expecting their policies will aid more small businesses through access to lending. — L.W.T.Noble

Laptop demand surges but supply can’t keep up

By Jenina P. Ibañez, Reporter

DEMAND for laptops surged during the lockdown, but a decline in global electronics manufacturing capacity caused a shortage in supply in the Philippines.

Technology company Lenovo Philippines said local demand during the lockdown reflected at least the 26% spike in its global laptop sales, a number that is based on shipment quantities. But local demand could actually have increased by more than double, Lenovo Philippines President and General Manager Michael Ngan said in an online interview.

“What we actually don’t see is kung ano ’yung hindi nag-ship. The pandemic actually affected the supply side,” he said.

ASUS Philippines, which also saw demand by June double its pre-lockdown numbers, attributed the spike to workers’ need for devices as they shifted to work-from-home operations.

Parents are also buying devices for young students as they prepare for online learning, ASUS Philippines Country Head George Su said in an online interview.

“The most significant change is that the younger grades in primary school, even the kindergarten, the parents need to consider to acquire a unit or two,” he said, adding that strong demand in their products is expected until the end of the year.

Outsourcing companies that were allowed to continue operations during the lockdown increased bulk orders of laptops for employees working from home, Mr. Ngan added.

But these electronics companies are not able to meet the increased demand, with Mr. Su saying that 30% to 40% of local demand is still underserved.

“Most of the vendors struggle to get more supply and distribute it across several markets during this situation,” he said.

Lenovo Philippines identified bottlenecks at every point of the supply chain. Mr. Ngan said there are shortages among their CPU and components providers, while their own manufacturing production is held up by restrictions declared to contain the pandemic.

“With the pandemic, everything is halved: production nangalahati (is halved) because nobody can deploy 100% workforce. In fact, not even in factories,” he said.

Mr. Ngan added the move to deploy only skeleton staff at the Customs bureau and domestic flight restrictions have slowed down importation and distribution.

The tech companies have manufacturing centers globally, including China and Mexico.

ONLINE SALES
While both companies sell online, Mr. Su said that most sales still come from brick-and-mortar stores. But e-commerce also saw a surge in laptop sales during the lockdown.

Lazada Philippines said average monthly laptop sales increased by five times during the lockdown compared with monthly sales in January and February, the e-commerce company said in an e-mail. Sales of its entire electronics category doubled in this period.

Lenovo’s Mr. Ngan noted some Filipinos also sold secondhand laptops on social media. One local laptop buy-and-sell Facebook group has almost 140,000 members.

To improve their own supply, he asked the government to include computers in its list of essential goods for Customs concessions.

“I think laptops nowadays should… kung pwede can be classified as essential goods and be given some concessions in customs, in logistics, para makadaaan, para makarating siya sa mga buyers,” Mr. Ngan said, explaining that the recovery of the economy could be backed by a workforce that successfully shifts to digital operations.

The company is adjusting its demand forecasts to improve shipments of their products to the country, he said.

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