THE US SENATE handed President Donald J. Trump a major political victory with its Tuesday passage of a sweeping domestic policy bill, bringing him one step closer to a signature legislative achievement in an administration that has largely governed through executive power.
The Senate’s narrow approval of the $3.3-trillion package, which likely has set the stage for the bill to be signed into law later this week, extends the tax breaks that were a centerpiece of Mr. Trump’s first administration while delivering on key 2024 campaign promises such as a no-tax-on-tips measure and funding for his border wall.
That the bill survived defections from only three senators — Susan Collins of Maine, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Rand Paul of Kentucky — hints at the tight grip Mr. Trump continues to have on his party. It also offers some validation for his tactical gambit of pursuing one mega-bill as a vehicle for his agenda, rather than of a slate of smaller ones.
Mr. Trump lauded the legislation on Tuesday, as he toured a Florida migrant camp dubbed “Alligator Alcatraz.” He also swatted away a top concern about the legislation, which he has dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill.”
“We’ll be in charge, so we’re going to have no problem with Medicaid or Medicare or Social Security,” Mr. Trump said.
The advancement of the bill presages plenty of risk for the president and congressional Republicans facing reelection next year. Polling has found the legislation is not especially popular with voters, prompting Democrats to see an opening to weaponize it in midterm contests. According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the bill will push 11.8 million Americans off Medicaid — a program Mr. Trump has repeatedly promised not to gut — and add $3.3 trillion to the US deficits over a decade, making it unpalatable to many fiscal hawks.
“It turns to the messaging game, and who can really tell the story in a way that doesn’t necessarily get Republicans sideways with the electorate that put them in power in November,” said Lisa Camooso Miller, a Republican strategist.
STAYING IN WASHINGTON
To secure support for the bill in a Congress where his party has only slim majorities, Mr. Trump has relied heavily on his social media megaphone. He brandished criticisms and threats of primary challenges against some members of his party who appeared poised to oppose the legislation — missives that served as warnings to any members who might’ve considered not falling in line. North Carolina’s Tillis announced Sunday he wouldn’t run for reelection — a sign of how Grand Old Party (GOP) lawmakers struggle to see a lane for themselves in the party if they disagree Mr. Trump.
The bill extends Mr. Trump’s first-term tax cuts for households and privately-held businesses and enacts many of the economic policies Mr. Trump popularized during the presidential campaign: no taxes on tips or overtime pay, along with a new deduction for seniors. Those levy reductions are partially offset by Medicaid benefit cuts, new taxes on university endowments and reductions to green energy subsidies.
With some lawmakers appearing on the fence, Mr. Trump opted to spend the weekend in Washington instead of decamping to Bedminster, New Jersey, as he often does in the summer. That decision signaled concern over whether the bill could earn enough votes to pass.
It is now up to the House of Representatives to pass the Senate version of the bill and send it to Mr. Trump for signing by the July 4 holiday — a deadline for passage that had been set by a pageantry-minded president. Even before the bill cleared the Senate, members of the conservative House Freedom Caucus had threatened to demand more spending cuts, a move that would derail passage before Mr. Trump’s July 4 target.
The president came into the final stretch of negotiations riding momentum from a historic Supreme Court ruling that limited the power of judges to block his policies nationwide. The combination of that court decision and the passage of this domestic policy legislation could “supercharge” Mr. Trump’s presidency, Matt Terrill, managing partner of Firehouse Strategies said.
Still, the administration is facing inertia or setbacks in other areas. Many of the trade deals his administration has said are on the way appear elusive, and he’s so far fallen short of his campaign promises to end the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.
VOTER SKEPTICISM
Even as Mr. Trump has managed to unite much of the GOP in Washington behind the bill, it is hardly assured to boost his standing with voters.
Polling from KFF found that the bill is viewed unfavorably by almost two-thirds of adults, including large majorities of independents and Democrats.
While a majority of Republicans in the poll held a favorable opinion of the bill, there was a sharp split within the party’s coalition. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who say they are MAGA (Make America Great Again) supporters, 72% approved of the legislation. Only 33% of non-MAGA supporting Republicans and Republican-leaning independents had the same view.
Democrats, who have been struggling to define their message after losing the 2024 presidential election, have pounced to try to turn voters against the GOP. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) and Democratic state parties have hosted 130 town halls nationwide to message against the tax bill, according to the DNC.
“Democrats, for once, have it together, and they have been winning the messaging battle on this,” Meghan Hays, a Democratic strategist, told Bloomberg Television last week. “Most of Americans, two out of three Americans, do not like this bill, do not like what’s in this bill. And so I think that this will all come to roost for the midterm elections, when they are reminded of how many people are cut off of Medicaid, and how many people are losing their SNAP benefits and other food assistance programs in their districts.”
Republicans, meanwhile, are banking on being able to champion the tax cuts as putting money back in voters’ pockets after an election in which Mr. Trump pledged to tame inflation and usher in greater economic prosperity.
“In order for him to deliver on those promises, it goes without saying this bill’s got to get across the finish line,” Mr. Terrill said. — Bloomberg
