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S&P Global’s $39-billion IHS deal shows market data’s dominance

S&P GLOBAL, Inc. grew out of a firm that provided bond ratings and railroad data. IHS Markit Ltd. traces its roots to a British barn and an effort to offer prices for the opaque world of credit derivatives.

Now, the second-biggest acquisition of 2020 will combine the two into a data Goliath that tracks everything from the price of wheat to the movements of hundreds of thousands of ships criss-crossing the world’s oceans.

The $39-billion deal underscores the central role of data in financial markets and the ever-growing demand from investors for information that gives them an edge in increasingly fast and computerized markets. Global spending on market data and analysis rose almost 6% to $32 billion last year, according to Burton-Taylor International Consulting.

“Data is the lifeblood of markets,” said Roman Ginis, chief executive officer (CEO) of Imperative Execution, an equities-trading venue. “Diversifying into data makes a lot of sense, and the more people need this data, the more you can charge for it.”

S&P is widely known for its ratings and index businesses, and the purchase of IHS Markit would give it a stronger foothold in more opaque markets for financial derivatives including credit default swaps and collateralized loan obligations. In commodities, S&P Global Platts is the main provider of benchmark prices for key raw materials, including oil and refined products. That business could be complemented by IHS Markit’s maritime products, which include ship tracking, port data and information on trade flows.

In an interview, S&P Global CEO Doug Peterson said the small business of providing data on energy transition and climate initiatives could be one of the biggest areas of growth. IHS Markit CEO Lance Uggla said the indexing and private markets business could also bring new opportunities.

“With IHS Markit, they’ve got benchmarks and data on battery metals, hydrogen, wind, solar, biofuels, as well as information that’s coming out of every single car in the United States,” Peterson said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “That is a real exciting growth area.”

Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg News, competes with IHS Markit and S&P Global in providing financial analytics and information. Other providers include Moody’s Analytics, FactSet and Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., according to Burton-Taylor.

Some recent transactions in the industry have come under scrutiny. London Stock Exchange Group Plc is still negotiating with the European Union over its agreement last year to acquire Refinitiv Holdings Ltd. for $27 billion, over concerns that the company’s control of data could make it the gatekeeper for an entire industry.

But Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Larry Tabb said he doesn’t see significant antitrust risk in the S&P deal. The primary competitive overlap between the companies’ businesses is in energy research and data, but otherwise they have different specialties, he said.

Mr. Peterson said on a conference call with analysts Monday that S&P doesn’t foresee any regulatory issues “that can’t be resolved if they do come up.”

The deal will likely get separate scrutiny from merger regulators in the European Union and UK as the British authority starts weighing deals after the country’s exit from the EU.

The combination could also reduce S&P Global’s reliance on a ratings business whose fortunes are somewhat tied to market activity. IHS Markit said almost 90% of its revenue in the nine months ended in August was recurring.

S&P shares rose 3% in New York trading. IHS shares climbed more than 7%.

“With a more diversified portfolio of assets and increased visibility (i.e. more recurring revenue) on earnings, we believe the combined entity can command a higher earnings multiple longer term,” Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Owen Lau wrote in a note. “We believe the potential merger will benefit the shareholders of both companies.”

IHS Markit has grown rapidly over the past two decades and has faced regulatory concerns about competition before. A civil probe by the US Justice department (DoJ) examined whether banks conspired to use Markit before the financial crisis to maintain their dominance in credit-default swaps and prevent new players from gaining a foothold. The DoJ probe was dropped after government concerns were addressed by new rules under the Dodd-Frank Act, people said at the time.

The European Commission said in 2013 it probed difficulties faced by Deutsche Boerse AG and Chicago-based CME Group, Inc., two of the world’s largest derivatives clearinghouses, as they sought to start a central clearing platform for instruments including credit default swaps from 2006 to 2009. Markit and the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, which was also under investigation, settled the claims in 2016. — Bloomberg

PELCO II awards 15-MW power supply contract

PAMPANGA II Electric Cooperative, Inc. (PELCO II) has awarded a 15-year power supply agreement to Vivant Energy Corp. and Gigawatt Power Inc. to supply 15 megawatts (MW) of the electric utility’s peaking requirements.

These were the results of PELCO II’s successful competitive selection process, a regulatory filing made by Vivant Energy’s parent firm Vivant Corp. on Tuesday showed.

Vivant Energy will own 50% equity in the embedded power plant project, which would “contribute to the company’s growth in the power generation sector.”

Last July, Vivant Energy announced that Isla Norte Energy Corp., its joint venture with Gigawatt Power, has tapped Finnish firm Wärtsilä to provide engineering and equipment for a 23-MW power plant that would supply power to Bantayan Island, Cebu.

Shares of Vivant climbed by 4.17% to close at P15 apiece on Tuesday. — A.Y. Yang

How PSEi member stocks performed — December 1, 2020

Here’s a quick glance at how PSEi stocks fared on Tuesday, December 1, 2020.


PSEi climbs on vaccine news, bargain hunting

STOCKS ended in green territory on Tuesday following positive developments on a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine candidate and bargain hunting.

The bellwether Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) rose 218.1 points or 3.21% to close at 7,009.56 on Tuesday, while the broader all-shares index improved 99.39 points or 2.42% to end at 4,199.67. The market was closed on Monday in observance of Bonifacio Day.

Philstocks Financial, Inc. Research Associate Claire T. Alviar said the local market improved on the progress made in the development of a COVID-19 vaccine.

“The market had four straight days of decline. It was boosted by the positive results from Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine, showing that it is more than 94% effective, and its plans to ask the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for emergency clearance,” Ms. Alviar said in a mobile phone message.

Moderna Inc. said on Monday it has applied for US emergency authorization for its COVID-19 vaccine after full results from a late-stage study showed it was 94.1% effective with no serious safety concerns, Reuters reported.

The US Food and Drug Administration said an advisory committee would meet to discuss the request on Dec. 17, making Moderna’s candidate the second highly effective vaccine likely to receive US regulatory backing and a potential roll out this year.

Meanwhile, Ms. Alviar said the local market was also affected by Chinese manufacturing data released on Tuesday.

“This lifted (market) sentiment as well as China is one of our top trading partners,” Ms. Alviar said.

China’s Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 54.9 from October’s 53.6, marking the highest level since November 2010.

“The market managed to close above the 7,000 mark [on Tuesday], as bargain hunters rushed to buy heavily battered shares from last week’s profit-taking activity,” Timson Securities, Inc. Head of Online Trading and Trader Darren Blaine T. Pangan said in a text message.

Almost all sectoral indices finished in positive territory on Tuesday except for financials, which dropped 11.12 points or 0.77% to 1,416.17. Meanwhile, property increased 155.24 points or 4.55% to 3,566.26; holding firms went up 277.01 points or 3.99% to 7,208.08; services climbed 48.02 points or 3.2% to 1,548.23; industrials rose 174.99 points or 1.95% to 9,125.74; and mining and oil gained 118.44 points or 1.39% to 8,593.84.

Advancers outpaced decliners, 119 to 102, while 35 names ended unchanged. Value turnover amounted to P10.89 billion with some 4.04 billion issues switching hands, against the P27.65-billion worth of 4.52 billion issues on Friday. Net foreign selling declined to P1.33 billion yesterday from the P3.17 billion logged in the previous trading day.

“As we go through the first week of December, we’ll have to watch how our local market moves, with 7,200 being the nearest resistance, while 6,800 may be considered the nearest support area,” Mr. Pangan said. Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

Peso inches higher as holiday season starts

THE PESO inched up versus the dollar on Tuesday as consumer spending is expected to increase with the start of the holiday season and on news of progress in the development of a vaccine against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

The peso closed at P48.05 against the dollar, inching up by one centavo from its P48.06 finish on Friday, data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines showed. The market was closed on Monday in observance of Bonifacio Day.

The peso opened Tuesday’s session at P48.11 against the greenback. Its intraday high was at P48.045 while its weakest showing was at P48.16 per dollar.

Dollars traded declined to $722.6 million on Tuesday from $783.4 million on Friday.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said the peso strengthened versus the dollar as families of overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) are expected to spend more of their remittances during this holiday season.

“The financial markets are anticipating the seasonal increase in over OFW remittances and conversion to pesos for the Christmas spending season,” Mr. Ricafort said in a text message.

Meanwhile, a trader said the peso rose after Moderna, Inc. said it will apply for emergency authorization from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to distribute its COVID-19 vaccine.

Moderna said on Monday it has applied for US emergency authorization for its COVID-19 vaccine after full results from a late-stage study showed it was 94.1% effective with no serious safety concerns.

The US Food and Drug Administration said an advisory committee would meet to discuss the request on Dec. 17, making Moderna’s candidate the second highly effective vaccine likely to receive US regulatory backing and a potential roll out this year.

A shot developed by Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE that was 95% effective in its pivotal trial is set to be reviewed by a panel of outside experts a week earlier. The FDA will decide on the emergency use authorizations after the advisers make their recommendations.

For today, Mr. Ricafort sees the peso moving from P48.02 to P48.12 versus the dollar while the trader expects it to range from P47.95 to P48.15. 

2021 budget passage targeted by next week

By Charmaine A. Tadalan, Reporter

THE HOUSE of Representatives and the Senate on Tuesday assured the 2020 national budget will not be reenacted as both chambers target ratification of the P4.5-trillion spending plan for 2021 by next week.

“It’s very tricky to put a timeline on legislation pero ang maganda (but what’s good is) we have enough time. Ideally, I think by next week sana ma-ratify na (hopefully it will be ratified),” Senator Juan Edgardo M. Angara, chair of Senate finance committee, said at a chance interview after the bicameral conference committee tasked to reconcile the House and Senate versions of the national budget.

Mr. Angara said it is crucial to pass next year’s spending plan on time as this year’s budget does not cover items and programs relating to the coronavirus pandemic. 

The government operated on a reenacted budget for more than four months in 2019 due to an impasse between the House and the budget department, and later with the Senate. The 2019 budget was also reenacted for less than a week in 2020, after President Rodrigo R. Duterte signed the 2020 budget only on Jan. 6.

Mr. Angara and ACT-CIS Rep. Eric G. Yap, House appropriations chairman, have been authorized to hold one-on-one meetings to iron out the differences in the budget versions.

The senator assured that members of the bicameral panel will be consulted on the results of the discussions.

Mr. Yap, for his part, said the committee agreed to finish the budget meetings by Friday.

Both chambers also agreed to provide appropriate funding for the procurement of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) vaccines as well as the government’s response to recent calamities.

The budget, as approved in the Senate, includes P8 billion for vaccines under the Department of Health budget. Another P54 billion has been allocated for vaccines and P21 billion for its storage, transportation and distribution under unprogrammed funds.

It also sets a P21 billion calamity fund and P15 billion for rehabilitation and reconstruction programs of local governments hit by recent typhoons.

“Our goal is ultimately the same: to have appropriate funding for COVID-19 vaccines and to allocate budget for regions severely affected by calamities,” Mr. Yap said in a statement on Tuesday.

He noted Speaker Lord Allan Jay Q. Velasco had requested to increase the calamity fund by P5 billion.

On another item, Mr. Angara said the Senate contingent will follow the  directives of Senate President Vicente C. Sotto III with regards a provision inserted in the budget that will allow the Commission on Elections (Comelec) to waive election procurement safeguards.

“Nothing should affect the conduct of 2022 elections. If ever nga, we should look at giving the Comelec additional powers or even funds to conduct elections in a way that meets the challenges of COVID,” he said.

‘NOT ENOUGH’
Marikina Rep. Stella Luz A. Quimbo, meanwhile, reiterated her push for another law focusing on an economic stimulus package, citing that the proposed 2021 budget is not sufficient to reverse a P3.3-trillion damage caused by the pandemic and recent typhoons.

“The budget call for the 2021 proposed budget ended in June 1. At that time, economic managers did not expect that the damage of COVID would be as big as it is today. The 2021 proposed budget… is premised on a 5.5 contraction of gross domestic product,” Ms. Quimbo said on Tuesday at a hearing of the committee on economic affairs.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) are forecasting even deeper economic contractions from around 7.3 to 9.5% for the current year, factoring in the devastation of a series of typhoons in October and November.

“We need more economic stimulus… But because the Constitution does not allow any increases in the total proposed budget, we need to secure additional appropriations for another economic stimulus package,” the lawmaker said as she sought the approval of House Bill No. 8031 or the Bayanihan to Arise as One Act (Bayanihan III).

ENERGY
Senator Sherwin T. Gatchalian, for his part, said the Department of Energy will need an additional P46 million to fund studies on potential energy sources.

“We have to invest on research to explore the potentials of emerging energy sources. The outcome of which will have a lasting impact in our daily lives and will save us money in the long run,” Mr. Gatchalian, chair of the energy committee who chaired the Energy Committee, said in a statement on Tuesday.

Of the proposed additional allocation, P20 million will be used for an energy transition study, P20 million for a comprehensive roadmap for electric vehicles, and P6 million for determining the potential of waste-to-energy facilities.  with Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza and Angelica Y. Yang

Coronavirus cases almost 433,000; Ilocos Norte highest

THE DEPARTMENT of Health (DoH) reported 1,298 coronavirus infections on Tuesday, bringing the total to 432,925.

The death toll rose by 27 to 8,418 while recoveries increased by 135 to 398,782, it said in a bulletin.

There were 25,725 active cases, 84% of which were mild, 7.4% did not show symptoms, 5.4% were critical, 2.9% were severe, and 0.30% were moderate.

Ilocos Norte reported the highest number of new cases at 84, followed by the city of Manila at 61, Quezon province at 55, Laguna at 50, and Negros Occidental at 47. The DoH said three duplicates were removed from the total case count while nine recovered cases were reclassified as deaths. One case reported as death was validated as an active case.

About 63.6 million have been infected and about 1.5 million people died of coronavirus worldwide, according to the Worldometers website, citing various sources including data from the World Health Organization (WHO).

About 44 million people have recovered.

Meanwhile, Philippine Foundation for Vaccination Executive Director Lulu C. Bravo said the government should address the vaccine hesitancy of Filipinos.

In a briefing on Tuesday, Ms. Bravo said while vaccines are not 100% safe, the benefits still outweigh the risks.

“It is important that we assure our people that if the vaccines are approved and released by the Food and Drug Administration, there are certain safety mechanisms in place. So, the benefits that you will get from that vaccine will far outweigh the risk,” she said.

The government plans to vaccinate 60 million Filipinos by 2023. — Vann Marlo M. Villegas and Gillian M. Cortez

Nationwide round-up (12/01/20)

Supreme Court head to retire a year ahead of mandatory age

CHIEF Justice Diosdado M. Peralta will be retiring on March 27, 2021, a year ahead of the mandatory retirement age, the Supreme Court (SC) confirmed on Tuesday. SC Public Information Chief Brian Keith F. Hosaka said Mr. Peralta confirmed the “purported letter” to his fellow justices, “signifying his intention to avail of early retirement.” Mr. Hosaka told reporters via Viber, “The Chief Justice did not elaborate further but said that he will make a formal announcement in due time.” Mr. Peralta, appointed by President Rodrigo R. Duterte as chief justice on Oct. 23, 2019, will reach the mandatory retirement age of 70 in 2022. He was appointed by former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo as associate justice on Jan. 13, 2009. His career in the judiciary started in September 1994 with his appointment as presiding judge of Quezon City Regional Trial Court Branch 95, a special criminal court on heinous crimes and later on drug cases. He was appointed to the Sandiganbayan in 2002 and became its presiding justice in 2008. Mr. Peralta is the third chief justice appointed by Mr. Duterte, following the ouster of former justice Maria Lourdes P.A. Sereno based on the quo warranto petition filed by Solicitor-General Jose C. Calida. Mr. Duterte previously appointed retired magistrates Teresita Leonardo-De Castro and Lucas P. Bersamin. — Vann Marlo M. Villegas

Rules on removal from terrorist list underway

THE rules for removal of names in the government’s terrorist list under the Anti-Terrorism Act are underway, a Department of Justice official said on Tuesday. “We are in the process of crafting the rules. We hope to submit the rules for the ATC’s (Anti-Terrorism Council) consideration within the month,” Justice Undersecretary Adrian F. Sugay told reporters via Viber. “I understand that there is a meeting set for next week. We will try to finish the rules before then,” he added. Under the law’s implementing rules and regulations, the ATC’s resolutions naming those linked to terrorism will be published in a newspaper, on the online official gazette, and on the council’s official website. A named party may file a verified request for delisting to the council within 15 days from the publication of the list. The request should be on grounds of mistaken identity, relevant and significant change of facts or circumstance, newly discovered evidence, death of designated person, dissolution or liquidation of designated groups, or any other circumstance showing no basis for designation. The Supreme Court is set to conduct oral arguments on Jan. 19 on the more than 30 petitions filed against the law, which took effect on July 18. — Vann Marlo M. Villegas

US gov’t to give P875-M fund for HIV/AIDS program

THE United States government will give $18.2 million or about P875 million worth of assistance to the Philippines for efforts to prevent and control the HIV/AIDS epidemic, its Embassy said on Tuesday. The amount will be provided over two years through the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR)-funded program. “The PEPFAR program will address the increasing number of people who are living with HIV in the Philippines, which has the fastest growing HIV epidemic in the Asia-Pacific region,” the Embassy said in a statement, issued on World AIDS day. Citing data from the Department of Health-Epidemiology Bureau of the Philippines, the Embassy said more than 110,000 Filipinos are living with HIV as of this year. About 37,000 have not been diagnosed, while the 18,500 previously diagnosed have not enrolled in life-saving antiretroviral therapy. — Charmaine A. Tadalan

Regional Updates (12/01/20)

Gov’t gears up for influx of returning overseas workers

THE Department of Transportation is preparing for the influx of returning overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) for the December holidays by expanding its one-stop shop for coronavirus testing and the passenger capacity at three international airports. “We added more swabbers and other partner agencies who will service our OFWs,” Transportation Undersecretary Raul L. Del Rosario said in Filipino during a briefing on Tuesday. He added that they are also increasing the number of accredited hotels for the mandatory 14-day quarantine and more vehicles for land transport. The airports currently operating with international flights are the Ninoy Aquino International Airport in Manila, Clark, and Mactan-Cebu. Mr. Del Rosario said about 500,000 Filipinos have returned to the country so far since the one-stop shop was set up in April. — Gillian M. Cortez

Palace to leftist groups: Denounce armed rebellion

MEMBERSHIP to the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) is not illegal but involvement with its armed faction, the New People’s Army (NPA), is a “crime,” Palace Spokesperson Harry L. Roque said on Tuesday. “The crime is… a crime of rebellion, taking up of arms against the government, killing civilians and soldiers,” he said during a briefing. “What’s difficult about them is you cannot separate the CPP from the NPA… if you are a member of CPP, you can be legal if you renounce your use of arms,” he added. Mr. Roque’s statements came after President Rodrigo R. Duterte slammed leftist groups on Monday evening during a televised speech, accusing opposition lawmakers and party-list groups of being tied to the armed conflict. — Gillian M. Cortez

98 found COVID positive after mass testing at Batasan Complex

A TOTAL of 98 persons were found positive of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) after mass testing was conducted by the House of Representatives at its headquarters, the Batasan Complex, in Quezon City. House Secretary General Mark Llandro L. Mendoza said nearly 5% of the 2,000 lawmakers and employees who underwent RT-PCR (reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction) testing came out positive for the virus. “Because it was mass testing for all officials, employees and guests entering the Batasan Complex, we caught even the asymptomatic cases who could be transmitters if we didn’t find out they were COVID positive,” he said in a statement. Those who tested positive have been directed to self-isolate while the House administration is now coordinating with the Quezon City government for a more extensive contract tracing, Mr. Mendoza said. Before Nov. 10, the House already registered more than 80 COVID-19 cases, including two lawmakers and three employees who died. Mr. Mendoza said the House will continue to operate under strict health and safety protocols. — Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza

Higher FIRB approval threshold seen weakening CREATE reforms

A CAMPAIGN to raise the investment threshold beyond P1 billion before a project can go before the Fiscal Incentives Review Board (FIRB) would weaken tax reform by removing many investments from scrutiny, according to Action for Economic Reforms (AER), a policy think tank.

In a statement Tuesday, AER said the request of the Semiconductor and Electronics Industries in the Philippines Foundation, Inc. (SEIPI) to increase the threshold for projects going before the FIRB in the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises (CREATE) bill is a “self-serving, shallow argument that will render the FIRB toothless.”

“Even if the bicameral conference committee convenes to reconcile the House and Senate versions of the bill, legally, it cannot insert the amendment that some industry leaders are asking for as the amendment cannot be found in either the House bill or the Senate bill,” it added.

The Senate approved Senate Bill No. 1357, its version of CREATE, on third and final reading last week. It proposes to cut the corporate income tax to 25% from 30% currently, with further reductions of one percentage point each year starting 2023 until it falls to 20% by 2027.

The measure also seeks to strengthen the capacity of the FIRB, chaired by the Secretary of Finance, to oversee the grant of incentives by investment promotion agencies (IPAs) and other bodies. The bill as it currently stands delegates investment approval for projects under P1 billion to the IPAs; projects beyond that threshold are to go before the FIRB.

SEIPI President Danilo C. Lachica has called the threshold too low and warned of approval delays and investor withdrawals if the FIRB approves projects at the P1 billion level.

“If you think about it, that P1 billion is like $20 million and that’s way below the expansion, and even the reinvestment cost for multinationals. For one, it clips the authority of the PEZA (Philippine Economic Zone Authority). It will (also) be a disincentive for investors because of the potential red tape,” Mr. Lachica told the Arangkada online forum Tuesday.

SEIPI is targeting an increase in the threshold to at least $1 billion (P48 billion), he said.

“While (existing rules state) that if not approved for 45 days it is considered approved, (the period is) very very long. It’s too low, and it may create bottlenecks and bureaucracy in the process,” he added.

The AER, leaving the authority to approve investments to various independent IPAs could lead to “incoherence, inconsistency, and weakening accountability” and the uncertainty surrounding the decision-making may discourage investors.

“It is but proper that more diligence be put in place for bigger amounts of investments,” said AER Coordinator Filomeno S. Sta. Ana III in the statement. — Beatrice M. Laforga

Lost regional economic output projected at $322.2 billion in 2021

PHILIPPINE STAR/MICHAEL VARCAS

SOUTHEAST ASIA could lose up to $322.2 billion in economic output next year due to the continuing fallout from the pandemic, with the Philippines among the leading losers in the tourism and services industries, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said.

“The pandemic generated enormous economic losses and our updated results (show an impact not just in) 2020, but we see that 2021 will also be adversely affected,” the bank’s Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada said during an ADB Institute webinar Tuesday.

According to his presentation, the region stands to lose at least $260.6 billion in economic output and $364.3 billion on the high side of the estimate range for 2020 due to the coronavirus crisis. Such losses are equivalent to 8.9-12.4% of nominal gross domestic product (GDP).

Next year’s estimated losses could be the equivalent of 5.4-11% of GDP, he said.

The estimates were based on an upcoming policy brief by the ADB, “The Impact of COVID-19 on Developing Asia: The Pandemic Extends into 2021.”

Mr. Sawada said tourism-dependent economies will continue to suffer outsized losses next year due to weak travel demand, as will those dependent on the services sector. The Philippines, Cambodia and Thailand will be Southeast Asia’s top losers in terms of tourism and services, he said.

The Philippines will also see a large drop-off in domestic tourism demand, while Cambodia and Thailand are projected to suffer more severely.

He said the services sector will continue to post the largest losses next year overall, with the Philippines, along with Cambodia and Thailand, to lead the region in declines for the segment.

The business, trade, personal and public services sectors, as well as manufacturing, utilities and construction, are the likeliest to sustain the heaviest losses in the Philippines next year, he said.

Globally, overall potential output losses could hit up to $7.588 trillion or 8.8% of GDP by year’s end, and up to $5.557 trillion or 6.5% of GDP in 2021, according to the ADB.

“While we do expect developing Asia to rebound strongly by 6.8% next year, we cannot anticipate a V-shaped recovery, as it will take some time for countries to recover to pre-pandemic levels of GDP growth,” ADB President Masatsugu Asakawa said in the same forum.

Fear, uncertainty and border closures during the pandemic have dampened economic output, pushing some, including the Philippines, into recession.

Small businesses are also among the hardest hit sectors, and lack of government support can worsen the damage to the sector, said Raghuram Rajan, a Finance professor at the University of Chicago’s Booth School, who served as governor of the Reserve Bank of India in 2013-2016.

Mr. Rajan said the government’s assistance to the sector, along with that provided by Mexico and developing countries in South Asia and Africa, has been “fairly limited,” causing outsized damage to the sector during the lockdown.

“Over and above the damage done by the virus is a damage done by the lack of relief which effectively will make the overall hit to potential growth of these countries significantly larger,” he said.

“Which is why it is really important, especially if you are a poor country, to ensure that the repair and reallocation is done as effectively as possible given the limited resources that these countries have so that the recovery is stronger than it might otherwise be, but also sustained over a longer period,” he added.

Around 73% of micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises in the Philippines shuttered operations during the lockdown in April and their access to financing was limited, restricting their ability to raise working capital, the ADB has estimated. — Beatrice M. Laforga

PHL coal-fired power capacity seen increasing by 135% despite moratorium on new projects

POWER generating capacity from coal-fired plants is expected to rise 135% after all plants currently being built become operational, after a moratorium on new builds was declared last month, Clean Air Asia (CAA) said in a report.

The estimate follows Energy Secretary Alfonso G. Cusi’s freeze on new coal-fired projects announced in October.

“The Philippines’ Department of Energy (DoE) announced… that a moratorium on coal will be implemented, but this does not cover planned CFPs (coal-fired power plants), which will result in a 135% increase in coal capacity once all are operational,” CAA, a non-government organization (NGO), said.

CAA also cited the country’s “lenient” regulation of emissions since the Clean Air Act became effective in 2000.

“The NOx (nitrogen oxide) emission standards even for ‘new’ CFPs (those operating after 2000) in the Philippines are still 10 times more lenient than those of India and five times more lenient than those of Indonesia,” the CAA said. It found that the Philippines had the “most lenient” sulfur dioxide emission standards.

“A review of Philippine industry emission standards has been underway since 2018, and is ongoing; however, no timeline for implementation has been discussed,” it said.

According to the NGO, the Philippines currently does not require a thorough health impact assessment (HIA) before approving a coal-fired power plant. “The HIA must be a priority and must be done not only in the application process, but throughout the lifetime of the CFP facility. In discussions about the ‘costs’ of CFP use, the externality costs of the health burden should always be prioritized and quantified as part of the HIA,” CAA said.

The Philippines was one of the CAA report’s five focus countries. Other countries included in the analysis are Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan and Vietnam.

Citing official government data compiled by CAA and the Global Coal Plant Tracker, South and Southeast Asia make up 31% of all planned expansion in coal-fired capacity — with the five focus countries making up almost half of this total.

In a separate statement, the CAA recommended that the Philippines adopt stringent emission standards; improve the transparency of documents and data on CFPs; and enforce policy more diligently.

The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) has estimated that around 10 gigawatts of greenfield coal plants will be affected by the DoE’s coal moratorium.

“The impact of the coal moratorium will fall most heavily on the Luzon grid and the project development aspirations of San Miguel and Meralco,” the IEEFA said. — Angelica Y. Yang

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