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Study formulates ‘nowcast’ model for data

A STUDY has recommended a new model to help reduce the lag in reporting official macroeconomic statistics, which can help the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) in setting monetary policy.

The study titled “An Application of Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) Model in Nowcasting the Philippine Economy,” which is part of the BSP’s Working Paper series, formulates a model to nowcast macroeconomic data to reduce the “significant lags” in reporting.

“In an inflation-targeting country like the Philippines where the BSP considers forward-looking indicators in the setting of monetary policy, nowcasts set the initial tone of the near-term path of the economy,” the study said.

The research said policy makers rely on real-time information to determine relevant actions over the forecasting horizon.   

However, official statistics are released with lags and are subject to revisions after their initial release.

Given this, there is a need to efficiently gather data from multiple sources to be able to predict macroeconomic variables in a timely manner, the study said.

“We introduced a nowcasting model using mixed-frequency indicators as an additional tool in assessing the real-time growth of the Philippine economy,” it said.

Results of the study’s forecast exercises showed the BVAR outperformed the benchmark models on the shorter horizon. The reduction of the lag structure also outperformed the benchmark model.

“Moreover, based on forecast evaluation, the nowcasting model also performs better on a shorter horizon even with a large specification in the lag order and a relatively small sample, which verifies results from various related literatures that data-driven approach and inclusion of large information set to capture key macroeconomic variables are useful to short- to near-term forecasting,” it said. — KBT

Federal Land sees sustained demand for The Seasons Residences

FEDERAL LAND, Inc. is seeing sustained demand for its Japanese-inspired luxury property, The Seasons Residences in Bonifacio Global City.

In a statement, Federal Land said it is optimistic about the upward trend in residential real estate demand.

The developer said only a few units are left in the first two towers of The Seasons Residences, prompting the launch of the third tower, Aki Tower.

“Investors continue to look for properties that would meet their needs in the long-term, from proximity, to commercial areas and green spaces, to access to lifestyle experiences. These factors are crucial as the country moves forward into a post-pandemic future. The demand for well-built and well-planned spaces is realized more these days. And this is what we offer with The Seasons Residences,” Federal Land Sales Group Head Margarita Saenz-Resurreccion said.

The Seasons Residences is the first residential project with a distinct Japanese concept in the country. It features Japanese innovations such as earthquake-resistant technology, sunken slab or below-floor drainage system for easy maintenance and repairs, air-washing tiles that minimize excess humidity and odor, kitchen floor storage, space-saving kitchen sink, and Japanese-branded shower toilets.

“We are raising the standards of property development with The Seasons Residences. Its architecture and design are like no other; its amenities cater to the various lifestyle needs of our future residents; and its value offers a sure ROI (return on investment) for our investors,” Ms. Saenz-Resurreccion said.

Maynilad customers reach 10M, up 64% after re-privatization

CUSTOMERS of Maynilad Water Services, Inc. increased by 63.9% to 10 million by end-2021 from 6.1 million in 2006 or before the company took over Metro Manila’s west zone water concession, it said in a media release on Monday.

After its re-privatization in 2007, the water provider noted that it managed to provide a 24-hour water supply for up to 97.5% of its customers by the end of last year from just 32% in 2006.

“The significant improvement in Maynilad services is due in great part to our employees, whose hard work and dedication enabled the company to withstand major financial, regulatory, operational and environmental challenges over the years,” said Maynilad President and Chief Executive Officer Ramoncito S. Fernandez.

Maynilad said that the increase in its customers also includes households and establishments in areas that used to be waterless.

Meanwhile, the company said that those who receive water supply at the acceptable pressure of 7 pounds per square inch (PSI) nearly doubled to 86.3% from 45% during the same period.

“We will continue to push on, so that service enhancements can be sustained despite new hurdles brought on by climate change and rising water demand,” Mr. Fernandez said.

Maynilad also noted that the company was able to exit court-administrated rehabilitation after prepaying $240 million worth of external loans and implementing a P210-billion capital expenditure program that improved water and wastewater services in the west zone.

Maynilad, a concessionaire of the Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System, serves the cities of Manila, except portions of San Andres and Sta. Ana. It also operates in Quezon City, Makati, Caloocan, Pasay, Parañaque, Las Piñas, Muntinlupa, Valenzuela, Navotas and Malabon. It also serves the cities of Cavite, Bacoor and Imus, and the towns of Kawit, Noveleta and Rosario, in Cavite province.

Metro Pacific Investments Corp., which has a majority stake in Maynilad, is one of three Philippine units of Hong Kong-based First Pacific Co. Ltd., the others being Philex Mining Corp. and PLDT Inc.

Hastings Holdings, Inc., a unit of PLDT Beneficial Trust Fund subsidiary MediaQuest Holdings, Inc., has an interest in BusinessWorld through the Philippine Star Group, which it controls. — Ashley Erika O. Jose

Banks’ earnings rebound sustained despite rate hikes

JULIAN PAOLO DAYAG-UNSPLASH

By Lourdes O. Pilar, Researcher

RISING INTEREST RATES and further reopening of the economy brought strong earnings to listed banks in the second quarter.

During the second quarter, the barometer Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) lost 14.5% on a quarter-on-quarter basis, a reversal from the 1.1% growth posted in the first quarter and last year’s 7.1%.

Meanwhile, the financials subindex, which included the banks, also dropped by 14.9% quarter on quarter in the April-June period versus the 5.5% growth recorded in the first quarter. This was a turnaround from the 9.1% jump recorded at the end of last year’s second quarter.

Most of the banks’ stock performance dipped in the second quarter.

“With regard to price performance, most bank stocks slid into negative territory (on both a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter basis) on general equity market weakness as investors’ risk appetite deteriorated against a backdrop of rising inflation and tightening liquidity due to hawkish monetary policy moves across the globe,” said Rastine Mackie D. Mercado, research director at China Bank Securities Corp.

Among the top 3 largest private banks in terms of assets, shares in BDO Unibank, Inc. (BDO) dropped by 16.7% quarter on quarter to P110.50 each in the second quarter. Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. (MBT) also declined by 16.1% to P47.48 apiece, while Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) slid by 14.9% to P84.80 per share.

Bank of Commerce (BNCOM) which was listed in the PSE last March, dropped the most by 34.5% to P8.00 per share from P12.22 at the end of first quarter.

Meanwhile, listed banks that saw quarter-on-quarter growth in their stock prices were Asia United Bank Corp. (AUB), which went up by 2.3% to P44.80 each, and Philippine Bank of Communications (PBC), which inched up by 0.1% to P17.98 apiece.

Though most of the banks showed losses in their stock prices, lenders still showed strong earnings performance in the second quarter.

Rachelleen A. Rodriguez, research analyst at Maybank Investment Banking Group–Philippines, said that the reopening of the economy brought strong earnings in the second quarter.

“The sector’s strong second-quarter earnings results were mainly a function of the economic reopening, which not only improved borrowers’ credit profiles (which, in turn, led to lower NPL [nonperforming loans] incidence and lower provisions expense for banks), but also drove borrowing appetite across corporates and SMEs (small and medium enterprises),” Ms. Rodriguez said.

Cristina S. Ulang, research head at First Metro Investment Corp. (FMIC), said in an e-mail that yield spread is wider due to the rising benchmark interest rates by the central bank’s Monetary Board.

“That means more net interest income for the banks as they increase their lendings amid the strong GDP (gross domestic product) growth recovery story,” she said.

“Banks also took advantage of the excess liquidity in the system which means lower cost of funds for them even as the general level of interest rates rose,” Mr. Ulang said. “That’s because a large part of their funding were from cheap demand and savings account.”

Aggregate net income of universal and commercial banks went up 16.2% to P131.82 billion as of end-June from P113.49 billion last year, data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas showed.

Gross total loan portfolio of these big lenders rose by 11.3% to P10.96 trillion as of end-June from P9.84 trillion a year ago.

The big banks’ gross NPL ratio also improved to 3.25% in June from 3.38% in May and 4.03% in June last year.

The big banks’ net interest margin (NIM) — a ratio that measures banks’ efficiency in investing their funds by dividing annualized net interest income to average earning asset — improved to 3.29% in the second quarter from 3.23% in the first three months of the year. However, this was lower than 3.39% NIM recorded in the second quarter of last year.

Since March, most parts of the country have remained under the most lenient alert level.

In the second quarter, the Philippine economy expanded by 7.4% as rising inflation weighed on consumer spending, based on preliminary data released by the Philippine Statistics Authority.

The second-quarter growth print was slower than 12.1% a year earlier and 8.2% in the first quarter.

BANK STOCK PICKS
Analysts suggested that investors should pick those bank stocks showing strong income growth, their loan portfolio composition, and the ability to play with high interest rates.

For BDO Securities Corp., investors should look at banks that are able to maintain good asset quality and are better positioned to benefit from broadening economic activity and the rising interest rate environment.

“Banks that beat earnings expectations such as BPI and SECB (Security Bank Corp.) stood out, with their first half earnings up 73% and 100% respectively. Both banks also posted strong loan growth of 14%-15%, which are above industry average of 12%,” BDO Securities said in an e-mail.

“Healthy core operations were supplemented by asset sale gains and tax adjustments in the case of BPI. While SECB’s performance was boosted by significantly reduced provisioning costs and normalized tax expenses,” it added.

“Among the banks we follow, the names that beat our expectations were BPI and SECB. The common ground of the aforementioned is the significant reduction in their credit loss provisions and healthy expansion in their core business,” said Luis A. Limlingan, head of sales at Regina Capital Development Corp.

Mr. Limlingan added that the banks investors eyeing to get into position should consider the bank loan portfolio composition and have guided attractive NIM sensitivity to BSP’s rate adjustments.

FMIC’s Ms. Ulang said MBT stood out after its first-half earnings hit its pre-pandemic level, adding that the bank “got earnings momentum, which was 33% up year-on-year to P15.6 billion.”

“In terms of stock price performance, AUB and China Banking Corp. (CHIB) stood out as they managed to stay in positive territory in terms of year-to-date (YTD) gains at 3.6% and 3.5%, respectively,” China Bank Securities’ Mr. Mercado said.

“It is also worthy to note that both banks posted robust first half of 2022 bottom line performance as measured by RoE (return on equity) at 15.8% and 16.4% for AUB and CHIB, respectively, both among the top in the industry,” he added.

RATE HIKES
Last May, the Philippine central bank raised its key benchmark rate by 25 basis points (bps), the first time since 2018 followed by another 25 bps in June, to tame inflation and prevent the peso from further devaluation.

However, the BSP raised its key interest rates by 75 bps in a surprise move in July and kept the door open for further tightening. On Aug. 18, the central bank further tightened its policy rate by another 50 bps. The central bank has raised rates by a total of 175 bps so far this year.

The overnight reverse repurchase rate now stands at 3.75%, while the rates on the overnight deposit and lending facilities were also increased to 3.25% and 4.25%, respectively.

“Rising rates are generally positive for the banks, especially for the BDO, BPI, since over 70% of their loan portfolios have variable rates, 75-78% of their borrowers are corporates and their current account/savings account percentages are high, at 72-85,” Maybank’s Ms. Rodriguez said.

“It typically takes six months for banks to fully price in the incremental rate adjustment, so we expect banks’ NIMs to reflect the 75-bps rate hike in July by first quarter of 2023,” said Ms. Rodriguez.

Aniceto K. Pangan, trader at Diversified Securities, Inc., said in an e-mail that the recent rate hike to reign on inflation will positively increase interest loan margin in banks and further enhance banks earning’s growth.

“Though increase in interest rate may slow down economic activity, it may continue to provide growth for the banking sector on increase interest loan margin, as long as, this would not cause economic recession,” said Mr. Pangan.

Allyza L. Espiña, equity research analyst at RCBC Securities, Inc., expects the rate hikes to expand banks’ NIMs.

“We don’t see any substantial impact of the increased rates on loan growth as industry loan levels have been picking up even with rising interest rates,” said Ms. Espiña in an e-mail.

OUTLOOK
Moving forward, listed banks’ stock prices as well as net incomes would be sustained until next year, analysts said.

Ms. Rodriguez expects the increased lending activity, particularly in the corporate segment, which accounts of 75% of current exposures.

“This will be boosted by a collective expansion of the NIMs, particularly in the coming quarters as the banks reflect the incremental rate hikes to the predominantly variable-rate loan books. Although banks have begun to rebuild their securities portfolio which resulted higher interest income accruals, we expect trading to continue to be weak,” said Ms. Rodriguez.

Ms. Rodriguez also added that rate hikes dropped trading incomes by 20%-40% year on year, the downward impact on earnings was more than offset by better asset yields, given that 70% of banks’ loan books have variable rates, and higher foreign exchange (FX) trading volumes arising from the volatile FX during the period.

“We expect this trend to continue towards third quarter and until 2023,” she said.

“On the fundamental front, I think the current bottom-line growth momentum would just be sustained until next year. Although this assumes a couple of factors including continued loan demand restoration, proper timing of passing through rates to clients, and local economy stays on track to recovery,” Mr. Limlingan said.

“Banks shares are likely to remain firm given good earnings prospects amid a reopened economy and a likely peaking inflation based on BSP messaging,” Ms. Ulang said.

Toby Allan C. Arce, head of sales trading at Globalinks Securities and Stocks, Inc., said in an e-mail that the current monetary policy tightening cycle is favorable for Philippine banks but is not expected to result in a significant decline in credit growth and asset quality.

“Profits and loans of Philippine banks will likely continue to grow as the economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic. The banking sector is also seen to remain resilient amid shocks on the back of their strong capital positions,” said Mr. Arce.

“Banks’ NPL ratios are expected to have peaked and will continue to gradually decline by end-2022. Over the next year, higher inflation and rising rates could dampen demand for loans and increase defaults among consumers and small businesses, but these risks are seen to be manageable,” he added.

Entertainment News (08/30/22)


Michael Learns to Rock returns to the PHL

DANISH soft rock band Michael Learns To Rock will be touring the Philippines as part of their Back On The Road Tour 2022 in October. The band will perform in Manila on Oct. 26 at the Araneta Coliseum; on Oct. 28 in Cebu at the Waterfront Hotel Ballroom; and on Oct. 30 in Davao at the SMX Convention Center Davao. Michael Learns To Rock’s greatest hits include “That’s Why (You Go Away),” “Take Me To Your Heart,” “25 Minutes,” “Sleeping Child,” “Paint My Love,” “The Actor,” “Out of The Blue,” “Complicated Heart,” “Nothing To Lose,” “Breaking My Heart,” and “You Took My Heart Away.” Filipino singer Nina will be joining the band’s Philippine tour as a special guest. The concert is presented by Wilbros Live with Midas Promotions. Tickets will go on sale on Sept. 3, 10 a.m. To purchase tickets, visit TicketNet.com.ph and TicketNet outlets for the Manila show; SMTickets.com, SM Tickets outlets, and Waterfront Hotel Cebu for the Cebu concert; and SMTickets.com and SM Tickets outlets for the Davao performance.


Top Hallyu acts to perform at New Frontier Theater   

SOME of K-pop’s biggest names are coming to the Philippines and performing at the New Frontier Theater in September. The K-pop girl groups (G)I-dle is scheduled for a show on Sept. 12. (G)I-dle — consisting of Miyeon, Minnie, Soyeon, Yuqi, and Shuhua — is embarking on its very first world tour called Just Me. At the concert, they are set to perform songs like “Oh My God,” “Latata,” and “Tomboy.” Tickets start at ₱3,500 and are available through Ticketnet outlets and the Ticketnet website. Meanwhile, one of the most in-demand actors in South Korea is returning to Manila to meet and interact with his Filipino fans. Hwang In-Youp is returning to Manila for a fan meet on Sept. 24. Tickets for In-Youp’s fan meet are available starting at ₱5,500 at all TicketNet outlets around the country and through the latter’s website.     


Crystal Paras and Vilmark drop new singles

GMA SPARKLE artists Crystal Paras and Vilmark Viray have both released new singles. Crystal Paras’ song “Hintay,” under GMA Playlist, now has an Extended Play (EP) that includes LoFi, Chill Vibe, Live, and Minus one version. The love song was composed by Rina Mercado and is about a person being cautious about her budding romance. Meanwhile, Vilmark Viray’s “Paraya,” under GMA Music, which the singer also composed, is about letting go of a person who makes you happy. Both songs are available on all digital streaming platforms worldwide.


Gloc-9 releases new single

BEFORE the month of August ends, Gloc-9 releases “Di Umiinom,” the 5th single for their upcoming anniversary album. In this track, Gloc-9 taps rising hip-hop star Hero to elevate the overall vibe of carefully honed rhymes. The track is produced by Thyro Alfaro. This is the third collaboration between the Gloc-9 and Hero. The song is now streaming on all digital platforms under Universal Records.

Big banks’ asset growth jumps by double digits in Q2 2022

THE COMBINED ASSETS of the Philippines’ largest banks grew by double digits annually in the second quarter, a pace not seen since before the pandemic, due to an increase in total loans. Read the full story.

Big banks’ asset growth jumps by double digits in Q2 2022

Peso may weaken further vs dollar as Powell says US rates to remain high

BW FILE PHOTO
THE PESO may decline further against the dollar following hawkish remarks from the US Federal Reserve chief, causing global recession worries anew. — BW FILE PHOTO

THE PESO may continue to depreciate against the dollar this week after the US Federal Reserve chief said the US economy may see slower growth as they continue to raise rates to bring inflation back within target.

The local unit closed at P56.02 on Friday, strengthening by four centavos from its P56.06 finish on Thursday, data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines showed.

However, week on week, the peso sank by nine centavos from its P55.93-per-dollar close on Aug. 19.

The peso opened Friday’s session at P56.03 per dollar. Its weakest showing was at P56.085, while its intraday best was at P55.995 versus the greenback.

Dollars exchanged dropped to $804.5 million on Friday from $1.058 billion on Thursday.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort attributed the peso’s climb on Friday to separate reports showing the government posted a narrower budget deficit and less hot money outflows in July.

The National Government’s budget deficit narrowed in July as revenues grew by double digits, the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) reported on Friday.

The BTr said the budget gap stood at P86.8 billion in July, 28.41% lower than the P121.2 billion in the same month a year ago.

In the first seven months of 2022, the budget deficit narrowed to P761 billion, 9.11% lower than the P837.3-billion gap a year ago.

Meanwhile, outflows of short-term foreign investments slowed in July, as the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) continued to tighten monetary policy.

Data released by the central bank last week showed transactions on foreign investments registered with the BSP through authorized agent banks saw a net outflow of $103.14 million in July, the smallest outflow in two months.

For the first seven months, foreign portfolio investments yielded a net inflow of $625 million, a turnaround from the $446-million net outflows in the same period last year. The BSP expects “hot money” to yield a net inflow of $4.5 billion in 2022.

Meanwhile, MUFG Global Markets Research Currency Analyst Sophia Ng said the peso depreciated versus the dollar week on week as the market anticipated a hawkish speech from the Fed chief on Friday.

“The main driver of peso weakness last week was dollar strength as euro dropped below parity and investors anticipated a hawkish Fed at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium,” Ms. Ng said in a research note on Monday.

Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell said in his speech on Friday that the US will see slower economic growth and an increase in unemployment as the central bank continues to raise rates to fight rising inflation.

Mr. Powell said the Fed will raise rates as high as needed and would keep them there “for some time” to bring down inflation.

The Fed next meets to discuss policy on Sept. 20-21. It has raised rates by 225 bps so far since March, including back-to-back 75-bp hikes in June and July.

The Fed’s continued hawkishness will cause the peso to depreciate further against the dollar this week amid risks of a global recession, UnionBank of the Philippines, Inc. Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion said in an e-mail.

“Extended dollar gains amid euro weakness and higher oil prices would continue to add downward pressure on the peso and bring it closer to record lows against the dollar,” Ms. Ng added.

The US dollar surged to a 20-year high against a basket of currencies on Monday after Mr. Powell signaled interest rates would be kept higher for longer to bring down soaring inflation, Reuters reported.

The dollar index scaled to a fresh two-decade peak of 109.44 in the Asia trade, with greenback strength pushing other major currencies to new lows and putting pressure on its emerging markets counterparts.

Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 2 cents on Monday to $93.08 a barrel at 0003 GMT, adding to Friday’s gain.

Brent crude futures were down 27 cents, or 0.3%, at $100.72 a barrel, trimming gains from the previous session.

For this week, Mr. Ricafort sees the local unit moving from P55.70 to P56.20 per dollar, while Mr. Asuncion expects the peso to move within the P55.80 to P56.30 levels. For her part, Ms. Ng gave a wider forecast range of P55.80 to P56.40. — K.B. Ta-asan with Reuters

PHL shares may drop as Powell spooks markets

BW FILE PHOTO

PHILIPPINE SHARES may move sideways with a downward bias this week on hawkish signals from the US Federal Reserve chief and following Wall Street’s decline on Friday.

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) went up by 46.07 points or 0.68% to close at 6,752.50 on Friday, while the broader all shares index rose by 12.17 points or 0.34% to 3,577.45.

Week on week, the PSEi declined by 111.36 points or 1.6% from its close of 6,863.86 on Aug. 19.

“Shares on the Philippine Stock Exchange rose at [Friday’s] close after sentiment as investors anxiously awaited a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell on their rate-hike path,” Globalinks Securities and Stocks, Inc. Head of Sales Trading Toby Allan C. Arce said in a Viber message.

“Local equities were skewed for plus-side bias as players positioned for improved second-half prospects in select shares,” online brokerage 2TradeAsia said in a report.

For this week, Mr. Arce said the market is expected to be volatile and track Wall Street’s decline on Friday after Mr. Powell said during the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium attended by global central bankers that they may need to keep rates high for longer to keep inflation under control.

The Fed next meets to discuss policy on Sept. 20-21. It has raised rates by 225 basis points (bps) so far since March, including back-to-back 75-bp hikes in June and July.

Wall Street ended Friday with all three benchmarks more than 3% lower following Mr. Powell’s speech, as it increased bets of another 75-bp hike at the Fed’s review next month.

The S&P 500 lost 141.46 points or 3.37% to end at 4,057.66 points, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 497.56 points or 3.94% to 12,141.71. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1,008.38 points or 3.03% to 32,283.40.

“On the local front, trading may remain volatile as investors digest and possibly shrug off the Fed’s warning on economic pain ahead,” he said. “The possibility that the Philippine central bank may not move in step with the Fed and instead consider a pause in rate hikes despite the continued tightening earlier this month could be a silver lining for equities.”

“The local market is expected to trade with a downward bias this week, especially in the earlier part, as investors digest Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium,” Philstocks Financial, Inc. Senior Research Analyst Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said in a Viber message.

Investors will also watch out for the release of latest bank lending data and the S&P Global Philippines manufacturing purchasing managers’ index “for clues on how our local economy is faring.”

Globalinks Securities and Stocks’ Mr. Arce placed the PSEi’s support at 6,498 and resistance at 6,899, while the online brokerage 2TradeAsia.com put immediate support at 6,650 and resistance at the 6,750-6,800 range. — J.I.D. Tabile

Petition to hike taxi flag-down rate awaiting LTFRB decision

PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS

By Arjay L. Balinbin, Senior Reporter

TAXI OPERATORS said they are awaiting a decision from the Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board (LTFRB) on their petition to increase the flag-down rate to P60 from the current P40.

Jesus Manuel C. Suntay, president of the Philippine National Taxi Operators Association, said in a phone interview on Friday: “We’re waiting for the resolution.”

“The last hearing took place maybe around two weeks ago,” he added.

The petition is now “up for resolution,” an LTFRB representative said in a phone message on Friday, relaying Chairperson Cheloy Velicaria-Garafil’s response to a BusinessWorld query.

Mr. Suntay said a flag down increase is urgent because fuel prices continue to rise.

Oil companies are expected to increase fuel prices this week, Rodela I. Romero, Assistant Director of the Department of Energy’s Oil Industry Management Bureau, said during a Palace briefing on Friday.

She said gasoline prices could rise by “more than P1” per liter, while diesel and kerosene prices could increase “by P5” per liter.

On Monday, Cleanfuel said it will implement starting on Tuesday a price increase of P1.40 per liter for gasoline and P6.10 per liter for diesel.

Mr. Suntay said that taxi drivers and operators continue to struggle despite the reopening of the economy, which resulted in the relaxation of travel restrictions. 

Nagkaroon ka nga ng pasahero pero ‘yung cost of operating — ‘yung fuel cost — is still high, so wala ring kikitain (Passengers have returned but the cost of operating — mainly fuel — is still high, so there are no earnings,” he said.

According to the LTFRB, the number of active taxis plunged to 27,934 units as of October 2021 from the 50,059 taxis before the lockdown was imposed in mid-March 2020.

As of March 2022, Mr. Suntay estimated there were only around 16,000 active taxis in Metro Manila. 

He said many fleet operators have sold their units in the face of pandemic restrictions and a shortage of drivers.

He said the LTFRB has responded slowly to the industry’s appeal for a higher flag-down rate.

“That’s the problem when the appointed officials do not come from the transport industry… We keep on appointing people who do not come from the transport industry and do not know what the industry needs,” Mr. Suntay said.

‘NEW BURDEN’
The No Contact Apprehension Program (NCAP) in force in the capital region is another burden for the taxi operators, according to Mr. Suntay.

Dapat babaan ’yung fines kasi ang nangyayari sa transport industry, kapag nag-violate ang driver, ang pini-pin nila ay ang operator, hindi ’yung driver (Fines should be lowered, because if a driver violates the rules, the responsibility lies with the operator, not the driver,” Mr. Suntay said.

“By the time na dumating ’yung notice of violation, wala na ‘yung driver, so ngayon ang operator is left with all the penalties (When the notice of violation arrives, the driver could be gone, leaving the operator with all the penalties).”

He said he has received reports from some operators who had to pay P300,000 to P400,000 in fines due to driver violations.

“Can you imagine that? It’s totally unfair. That’s another burden kaya may mga operators na mas gusto na lang ’wag mag -operate (that’s why there are operators that would rather not operate).”

Land Transportation Office (LTO) Chief and Department of Transportation Assistant Secretary Teofilo E. Guadiz III has appealed to local government units that are implementing the NCAP to suspend and consider reviewing the policy.

LGUs can sit down with the LTO to iron out guidelines, including the complaints of operators of public utility vehicles “that they are the ones who are forced to pay the fines for traffic violations committed by their drivers,” the agency said in a statement on Aug. 9.

Asked to comment, Ariel E. Inton, a former board member of the LTFRB, said that the policy adds to the clamor of taxi operators to increase the flag-down rate.

“Hardest hit sila ng NCAP kaya talagang may clamor (They have been hit hardest by NCAP, which is why there is a clamor),” he said in a phone interview.

Mining bill expected to raise gov’t revenue but poses risk to FDI growth

DAVID HELLMANN-UNSPLASH

By Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson, Reporter

THE proposed new fiscal regime to govern the mining sector is expected to strengthen the position of responsible miners and benefit the government, which will receive a fairer share of the revenue generated by the industry, analysts said, though miners warned that investors may elect to go elsewhere as a result.

“The new fiscal regime may benefit the government more as it aims for simplification and fair share, more so as policy makers look to achieve fiscal consolidation over the course of the several years without necessarily burdening other revenue sources,” Security Bank Corp.’s Chief Economist Robert Dan J. Roces said in an e-mail.

“As such, this will help manage and stabilize the high fiscal and debt-to-GDP ratios on top of economic recovery,” he added.

The House of Representatives’ Committee on Ways and Means last week approved a new fiscal regime which raises the tax rate on the mining sector to 51% from 38%.

The measure aims to increase government revenue from mining to P37.5 billion in its first full year of implementation.

Under the proposal, a royalty of 5% will be imposed on the market value of gross output of large-scale mining operations.

A minimum government share of 60% of net mining revenue, including all taxes and charges, will also be imposed on all mining operations.

A 10% export tax will also be levied on the market value of mineral ore exports to encourage domestic ore processing.

The bill also proposes a government system for the public disclosure of all mining tax and revenue data in the extractive industries value chain.

Eleanor L. Roque, head of the Tax Advisory and Compliance Division of P&A Grant Thornton, said that fiscal rationalization will promote transparency and level the playing field.

“It also minimizes the discretionary powers on the taxes and charges that can be imposed on a particular contract. I think it will encourage responsible and conscientious miners. Although mining as an industry is potentially a huge source of revenue for the government, we should still be very cautious and prudent to ensure that we are getting the most benefit from this industry. These are our natural resources. Once mined, we can never get them back so maximizing benefits for our country should also be a major consideration,” she said in an e-mail.

She said the Philippines should export high-value products which have already been processed.

“In most cases, the products we export have low value because the important processing steps are done abroad. So, the income realized here in the Philippines is also very low which, in turn, means low government share and taxes. Then, we import those same products after they have been processed at a very high value. Encouraging the processing to be done here in the Philippines will also transfer the much-needed technology to our workers and skilled laborers,” she added.

Tax Management Association of the Philippines President Fulvio D. Dawilan said that the measure will be good for both the environment and the economy.

“The accrual of the royalties paid by large-scale metallic mining operations into a Natural Resource Trust Fund is a new concept. The fund redounds to the benefit of the localities affected by the mining operations. There are therefore clear benefits to the affected local government units, including the use of the funds for the rehabilitation of abandoned mines,” he said in an e-mail.

“Also, the requirement for the small-scale miners to get tax identification (numbers) as a requisite for registration with the Mines and Geosciences Bureau and Mining Boards will place them on the radar of the tax authorities. This will require them to pay their fair share of taxes on the income generated from their mining activities,” he added.

Mr. Dawilan noted that assigning royalty collection duties to the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) is a new move. 

“This is correct as in fact the royalties paid by mining contractors are actually taxes which should be under the jurisdiction of the BIR,” he added.

Stock market analysts said that the new fiscal regime will likely not impact investor appetites.

Mercantile Securities Corp. Head Trader Jeff Radley C. See said in a Viber message that the mining industry anticipated these changes as the government needed more money.

“The proposals would be acceptable as long as the taxes on mining are aligned with those of other countries. Furthermore, higher prices of global metals and other minerals in recent months will help support or sustain higher taxes (and the government’s share from) mining. Higher taxes are also commensurate with the corresponding impact on the environment and any additional government intervention or spending that could entail,” Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a text message.

According to environmentalists, the measure will likely minimize exploitation by mining companies.

“This is the right direction. Without endorsing the specific proposals, there is definitely a need to increase the government share of mining revenue as the current fiscal regime is grossly advantageous to mining companies,” Antonio Gabriel M. La Viña, a lawyer, educator and environmental expert, said in a text message.

“Incentives for domestic processing are also welcome because raw materials are valued much less than those which have been processed here. Minerals are sovereign wealth, national patrimony owned by current and future generations of Filipinos. They should not be squandered to favor private entities, both domestic and foreign,” he added.

Asian Institute of Management Associate Director John Paolo R. Rivera said that the measure will help mitigate the harmful impact of mining activity.

“While higher taxes may drive away mining companies, it would be a welcome development for the environment because it can compensate the country for resource extraction. It will definitely help the government secure additional sources of funds to support its welfare programs,” he said in a Viber message.

The new tax measures are a welcome development as the mining industry is considered “under-taxed,” according to Alyansa Tigil Mina National Coordinator Jaybee Garganera.

“We had supported the proposal that royalty should be at least 10%. We also proposed a windfall profit tax or super profit tax, but this wasn’t included. We should remember that the TRAIN Law already reduced the corporate income tax… We also felt the new tax regime should have added a provision on a sovereign wealth fund so that mining taxes can finance education, health and other (sustainable development goals) for the next generation. At the end of the day, new and increased taxes will mean very little if the costs of climate change impacts from mining outweigh these taxes,” he said in a statement.

“Except for taxes, mining has very little significant contribution to our economy.  Given the impacts on affected communities and the environment, we must ensure our fair share. And this new tax on mining is the closest we have to achieving that,” he added.

The Chamber of Mines of the Philippines (COMP) has said that the bill will “once again set back” the revitalization of the industry.

“We lament the fact that no consultations took place with the industry that would have allowed us to prove that the onerous provisions of the bill would make the Philippine mining industry one of the highest taxed in the world. We also maintain that figures shown during the committee hearing that purported to show the industry’s effective tax rate at 38% was woefully out of date as the report was (compiled in) 2000, prior to the doubling of the excise tax on mineral products under TRAIN 1,” COMP said in a statement.

“Once again, the mining industry is faced with a drastic policy change that will not be conducive to its growth, preventing it from playing a major role in the recovery of our economy. Should this bill become law, three flagship mining projects that can otherwise substantially contribute to economic development in areas where they are located, result in a substantial amount of exports and tax revenue and a considerable amount of social expenses will instead be in jeopardy. In addition, a number of large-scale operations run the risk of closure, resulting in massive unemployment in their areas of operations,” it added.

COMP called on the Congress to revisit the bill and consult more widely.

“This will give all affected parties an opportunity to contribute to the passage of a mining fiscal regime that will encourage investment and finally unlock the industry’s huge economic potential,” it said.

“Simply put, the onerous tax bill will once again put into question the stability of our policies, which is most detrimental to attracting foreign investment in such a capital-intensive industry. Foreign investors will simply look elsewhere; we are not the only country blessed with mineral resources. If further tax increases are unavoidable, the tax structure should not be onerous as to stop investments from coming in. This will sustain existing mines and encourage quality investment in the hugely untapped Philippine minerals sector, ultimately expanding the tax base and providing far larger tax revenue to the government,” it added.

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines said that the proposal threatens the country’s post-pandemic economic recovery.

Canadian Chamber President Julian H. Payne said the proposed imposition of a 5% royalty on all mining plus a 60% share of net mining revenue is significantly higher than rates now imposed by other countries with major mining industries, including Australia, Canada, Chile, Peru, and South Africa, with which the Philippines competes for investment in mining.

“References to increasing the tax rate in the Philippines from 38% to 51% to be in line with Australia and Indonesia refers to only part of the total share of net revenue the Philippines now receives. It gives an impression that the Philippines receives less in total than these other countries,” he said in a statement.

He said that his other major concern is that the calculated increase in total tax revenue for all mining operations appears to be based and calculated on the current level of mining operations rather than on any reduced level probable with any significant tax increase.

“Sure, the Philippines may get more in total if the current level of operations continues. But if foreign investors in mining go for more hospitable countries with lower total net revenue share taken by the government, total tax revenue from mining in the Philippines will probably decrease. Foreign investors in mining have options to invest in various other countries which have rich mineral resources and the Philippines may not be considered so desirable for foreign investment in mining. The result will be less tax revenue as well as less employment and less business for small businesses that provide support to mining in rural areas where mining is located,” he said.

“The bottom line is this proposed major tax increase on mining in the Philippines will be seen by foreign investors in mining, such as by those in Canada, as a reversal of recent positive steps by the National Government to (encourage) growth of mining as one of the industrial sectors cited as having the greatest potential to support the post-pandemic economic recovery of the Philippines. It will also be seen as quite inconsistent with one of the stated goals of the new Administration to attract foreign investment in the capital-intensive mining sector,” he added.

2040 capacity target for new-build renewables set at 52,826 megawatts

Solar panels are being installed on the roof of a mall. — GREEN HEAT HANDOUT PHOTO

THE Department of Energy (DoE) said it has set a target of 52,826 megawatts (MW) of additional renewable energy (RE) capacity by 2040 or seven times the current level.

Marissa P. Cerezo, director of the Renewable Energy Management Bureau, said at a briefing led by the Center for Energy, Ecology, and Development on Saturday that solar energy will account for 51.5% or 27,162 MW of the targeted new construction.

Ms. Cerezo added that wind will account for 16,650 MW with the remainder consisting of hydro, geothermal, and biomass.

“The basis of this figures are the projects we have now registered at the department. These projects are at different stages, (and the projections are weighted towards) those that are in the development stage that are already undergoing construction,” Ms. Cerezo added.

Currently, RE capacity is 7,914 MW. In 2021, RE accounted for 29% of the power capacity mix and 22% of gross power generated. Coal accounted for the biggest share of installed capacity and power generation at 44% and 58% respectively.

The DoE is also looking to address the intermittency issues for the various forms of RE such as solar and wind, by enhancing weather forecasting system, according to Ms. Cerezo.

In the DoE’s energy plan, the department is looking to increase the share of RE to 35% by 2030 and to 50% by 2040. — Ashley Erika O. Jose

Feed-dependent industries urge more budget support for yellow corn production

REUTERS

INDUSTRIES dependent on animal feed called on the government to raise its budget allocation for raising corn output, saying corn scarcity will have a follow-on effect on meat, fish, and poultry prices.

“There should be more funding for yellow corn production as it is the main ingredient for the feed of our main protein sources (such as) poultry, livestock, and aquaculture. The same reasoning goes for fruit and vegetables,” United Broiler Raisers Association President Elias Jose M. Inciong said in a Viber message.

“Considering only the budget numbers, one can say the budget is still rice-centric after all these years and despite the funds from the Rice Tariffication Law. Rice is for the carbohydrate needs of our people,” he added.

In the proposed 2023 budget, the Department of Agriculture (DA) will receive P102.15 billion, up 44%, according to a statement issued by Deputy Speaker and Batangas Rep. Ralph G. Recto on Sunday.

“It took a sitting President to concurrently serve as Agriculture Secretary for the DA to finally reap a budget increase,” Mr. Recto said, referring to President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr.’s decision to appoint himself head of the DA.

Subsidies to the National Food Authority (NFA), Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA), National Irrigation Administration, Philippine Rice Research Institute, Philippine Fisheries Development Authority, National Tobacco Administration, Philippine Coconut Authority, National Dairy Authority will rise 33% to P62 billion, according to the budget bill currently with the House of Representatives.

The NFA received the biggest year-on-year increase of 71% to P12 billion, followed by the SRA, whose funding was raised 41% to P1 billion.

The National Rice Program had its allocation doubled to P30.5 billion. Of this total, P19.5 billion will fund fertilizer support.

Corn is to receive P5.2 billion, livestock P5 billion, and high-value crops P2 billion.

The DA will also be ramping up infrastructure spending, allotting P13.1 billion for farm-to-market roads and P29.5 billion for irrigation.

Mr. Inciong said that the government should consult more broadly with stakeholders in preparing budgets.

“There should be an Agriculture Fisheries Modernization Plan based on consultations with stakeholders. There is no plan based on genuine consultations. Also, there should be a National Information Network. This means a data and information system with clear stakeholder buy-in as to its reliability. We still do not have such a system,” he added.

In a separate statement, Acting Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA) Head David John Thaddeus P. Alba said that the budget increase will increase farm productivity.

“With the National Government’s focus on food security, the budget increase can be used for research and development programs and support services for small farmers, especially for block farms,” he said.

Mr. Alba also welcomed the increase in budget for fertilizer support.

“We hope that sugar farmers and all other agriculture industries will benefit from this earmarked program,” Mr. Alba said, noting that fertilizer prices have tripled in the last three years.

“We are also hoping that the P2 billion allocation under the Sugar Industry Development Act will be given by next year as this has been cut down to a fourth for this year. For the sugar industry to be sustainable and attain self-sufficiency, we need to double our efforts and any budget increase will help ensure we can meet this if we get the much-needed help for the industry,” he added.

Quezon Province First District Rep. Wilfrido Mark M. Enverga, who is also chairman of the House Committee on Agriculture and Food, welcomed the budget increase.

“We are happy that the agricultural sector is being given attention. It has long been neglected,” he has said in a statement.

Mr. Enverga said that the newly appointed Agriculture Undersecretary, Domingo F. Panganiban, who briefed the committee, will effectively lobby for the agriculture sector’s budgetary needs.

“I think it’s also the key people within the agency that will be answering most of the questions so it’s good that we hear the details from them,” he said. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson