Shares may climb on election-related spending

April 18, 2022 | 12:01 am

PHILIPPINE SHARES are seen to rise on expectations of increased spending as the country is less than a month away from the national elections and despite an aggressive rate hike from the US central bank.

The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) went up by 89.54 points or 1.29% to close at 6,984.90 on Wednesday, while the broader all shares rose by 40.74 points or 1.10% to 3,726.58.

Week on week, the PSEi fell by 33.12 points from its finish of 7,018.02 on April 8.

Philippine financial markets were closed on April 14-15 for non-working days in observance of Maundy Thursday and Good Friday.

“The final three weeks of the election campaign could lead to increased election-related spending, both at the local and national levels, that could boost consumption and other business and economic activities, thereby [leading] to higher sales, earnings and income, and valuations for some listed companies,” Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a text message.

“Note that we are a month away from what is dubbed to be the most polarizing national elections in local history, a possible 50-basis-point rate hike from the US Federal Reserve, and a full blast of first quarter earnings reports,” online brokerage 2TradeAsia.com said in a report.

The national elections will be held on May 9. An estimated 67.5 million are registered to vote, which is approximately 61% of the country’s 110 million population.

Meanwhile, a Reuters poll last week showed analysts expect the Fed to raise rates by 50 basis points each for its May and June review to respond to runaway inflation. These analysts also expect a 40% probability of recession by 2023.

“It’s going to take time for us to appreciate the recent burst of relative prices and how long they’re going to be with us,” Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said last week.

On the other hand, 2TradeAsia.com said sectors like consumer and retail that face margin squeezes due to foreign exchange disadvantages, higher production costs due to rising inflation amid increasing oil prices are showing signs of resilience, and posting better risk-reward ratios.

“Higher cost of debt, further volatility of the peso and oil, and supply chain impact of China’s centers shutting down for brief periods in the first quarter pose macro downside risks that can bring the average to single digits, although on a corporate level, the impact is highly mitigated by capital deployment that is still very aggressive compared to pre-COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) levels — possibly to lock in better rates and take advantage of consolidating distressed assets,” the online brokerage added.

For the coming week, 2TradeAsia.com placed the PSEi’s immediate support at 6,800 and resistance at 7,200.

Meanwhile, RCBC’s Mr. Ricafort put the benchmark index’s immediate major support between the 6,600 to 6,700 levels and resistance at 7,200. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson with Reuters

Farm goods stuck at border following Mexico trucker blockade

April 18, 2022 | 12:01 am

GROCERY STORES in some parts of the US are expected to start running out of certain perishable goods as soon as this weekend because of a Mexican truckers’ blockade that has stranded millions of dollars’ worth of fresh produce.

Roughly $150-million worth of fruit and vegetables are stalled south of the US-Mexico border amid a protest over Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s controversial vehicle-inspection program, according to Texas International Produce Association (TIPA). The blockade, which entered its fourth day on Thursday, is impeding delivery of things like avocados, limes, tomatoes, cucumbers and mangoes.

“Going into this Easter weekend, consumers are going to see store shelves devoid of certain items,” said Dante L. Galeazzi, chief executive officer of the TIPA.

The first impacts probably will be seen in the Midwest and along the East Coast, he added. Although commercial traffic has resumed at the initial blockade site, according to US Customs and Border Protection, local media reported that truckers were shifting their focus to other crossing sites.

“Some retailers, particularly those in the grocery industry, have experienced supply chain delays resulting from the extended wait times along the Texas-Mexico border,” John McCord, executive director of the Texas Retailers Association, wrote in an e-mail.

Little more than a week ago, Mr. Abbott ordered state troopers to begin inspecting northbound Mexican commercial trucks to bolster highway safety in the Lone Star state. Although 25% of inspected vehicles were taken off the road because of bad brakes and other defects, the reaction from business interests and politicians on both sides of the border has been fierce.

Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller, a Republican like Mr. Abbott, was among the first to sound the alarm, warning earlier this week that the dispute would trigger food shortages and push the price of avocados to $5 apiece.

Meanwhile, temperatures along the border have hovered close to 100°F (33°C), making it hard for refrigerated trucks to keep fresh produce cool enough to avoid spoilage.

Mr. Abbott said on Wednesday that he’s seeking to replicate agreements with Mexican state governors like the one he signed with the leader of Nuevo Leon that would see Texas inspections halted in exchange for increased vigilance south of the border.

Mr. McCord of the retailers’ association said he’s seeing “signs of a more normalized delivery schedule due to the agreement reached between Governors Abbott and Garcia on Wednesday.”

“The movement of agricultural goods and other products is vital to the Texas agriculture industry and important supply chains,” said Gary Joiner, a spokesman for the Texas Farm Bureau. “We are encouraged by the recent agreement in the Laredo region that is facilitating movement and inspections at the port of entry. We hope other similar measures and agreements can be achieved at other points of entry.” — Bloomberg

Investors cash in on BDO ahead of Holy Week pause

April 18, 2022 | 12:01 am

BDO Unibank, Inc. shares fell last week as investors took profit ahead of the Holy Week holidays.

A total of 3.89 million BDO shares worth P503.49 million were traded from April 11 to 13, data from the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) showed, making it the seventh most actively traded stock in the market.

Local financial markets were closed on April 14 and 15 in observance of the Holy Week.

BDO’s share price dipped by 3% on a week-on-week basis to P128.50 apiece on Wednesday.

Since the first trading day of the year, the stock’s price has risen by 7.1%.

“Investors lock in profits ahead of a long weekend to protect their gains just in case something unforeseen happens to the stock or the economy in general, which I think explains the market’s behavior on BDO this shortened trading week,” said Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Research Luis A. Limlingan in an e-mail interview.

Similarly, on a separate e-mail interview, I.B. Gimenez Securities, Inc. Research Head Joylin F. Telagen attributed the stock’s movement to investors cashing in gains in anticipation of the long holidays.

“It’s fundamentally good news for long-term investors,” she said. “However, pullback or correction is normal for the stock to move higher after the previous week’s indecision.”

Latest Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) data showed that the Sy-led bank remained the largest lender in the country in terms of total assets with P3.48 trillion in the final three months of 2021. This was 7.1% higher than the previously logged P3.25 trillion in the same period in 2020.

In terms of capital, BDO recorded P423.39 billion while deposits were P2.75 trillion.

Meanwhile, total loans and receivables totaled P2.38 trillion in 2021.

Mr. Limlingan said that market players might have anticipated BDO to keep its crown as the largest universal and commercial bank in the country, that’s why the stock endured a series of profit taking in February and March.

“My thinking is that investors are just looking for a more attractive price level before jumping right back into BDO, since it has recently played at a premium to its short-term moving average for a quite a while.”

Last year, BDO posted an attributable net profit of P42.79 billion, 51.4% higher than the P28.25 billion reported in 2020.

Ms. Telagen expects the bank’s bottom line in the March quarter to end at P11.5 billion, and the full year at P47 billion.

“For 2022, we project at least a double-digit bottom line growth, buoyed by loan book and net interest margin improvement,” said Mr. Limlingan.

As BDO continues to dominate, this is already a good thing market players should consider, Ms. Telagen said.

“However, as cryptocurrencies continue to grow and some big players might be offering crypto (e.g., GCash and Paymaya), I think it will be better if they will be a crypto-friendly bank as well,” she added.

Ms. Telagen sees BDO’s support level this week at P122.00 while resistance is at P140.00

“BDO’s support is at P127.80. If this gets broken, the next support awaits at P126.00. Meanwhile, resistance sits at P130.00. The next resistance is at P132.00,” Mr. Limlingan said. — A.M.P. Yraola

How PSEi member stocks performed — April 13, 2022

April 18, 2022 | 12:00 am

Here’s a quick glance at how PSEi stocks fared on Wednesday, April 13, 2022.

Philippines most ‘internet poor’ in Southeast Asia

April 18, 2022 | 12:00 am

More than half of the Philippine population are considered “internet poor” — or those who cannot afford a minimum package of mobile internet — according to the Internet Poverty Index by Austria-based data enterprise World Data Lab. Among 169 countries included in the index, the Philippines ranked 38th in terms of internet poor as share of the population. This translated to over 58 million Filipinos who cannot afford a 1-GB-per-month internet package. This put the country the seventh in the world with the largest number of internet poor.

Presidential laggards vow they won’t quit race

April 17, 2022 | 8:04 pm

Isko Moreno, Norberto Gonzales.and Ping Lacson — PHILIPPINE STAR/ RUSSELL PALMA

By Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza, Reporter

THREE presidential candidates on Sunday vowed not to drop out of the race, amid calls by some sectors for them to back Vice-President Maria Leonor “Leni” G. Robredo and prevent another Marcos presidency.

“We will never let go of our campaigns,” Manila Mayor Francisco “Isko” M. Domagoso, who is a distant No. 3 in presidential opinion polls, said at a hastily called news briefing in Filipino. “Each of us will continue with our own candidacies to deserve being chosen by the Filipino nation.”

He was joined by Senator Panfilo “Ping” M. Lacson and former National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales, who are also trailing in most opinion polls. Mr. Domagoso said Mr. Pacquiao, who was absent on Sunday, had also supported the statement.

The presidential bets focused too much on Ms. Robredo instead of former Senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” R. Marcos, Jr., who is leading in presidential opinion polls, said Jean Encinas-Franco, who teaches political science at the University of the Philippines (UP).

“If you want to win, why are you hitting the No. 2 and not the No. 1 when there are more reasons to hit the latter?” she said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

Mr. Marcos kept his lead in Pulse Asia Research, Inc.’s presidential opinion poll last month, with 56% of Filipinos saying they would vote for him, even if his rating fell by 4 points.

Still in second place was Ms. Robredo, whose rating rose by 9 points to 24%. She was followed by Mr. Domagoso (8%), Senator and boxing champion Emmanuel “Manny” D. Pacquiao (6%), Mr. Lacson (2%), businessman Faisal Mangondato (1%), former Cabinet official Ernesto C. Abella (0.1%), cardiologist Jose C. Montemayor, Jr. (0.05%) and labor leader Leodegario “Ka Leody” de Guzman (0.02%).

Mr. Gonzales got zero.

It’s every candidate’s prerogative to continue until the end and ignore opinion polls and endorsements, Ibarra M. Gutierrez III, Ms. Robredo’s spokesman, said in an e-mailed statement.

“But in making these choices, should we not ask ourselves: Must this assertion be made through bluster and falsehood? Who benefits from such theatrics?” he asked.

“Perhaps, silence would have had more depth; at the very least, it would exhibit less self-entitlement, fragility and toxicity.”

“We are thankful that the alignments have been made even clearer. And we remain focused on showing our people that a Robredo presidency will mean a victory for all Filipinos,” he added.

At Sunday’s briefing, the three candidates accused Ms. Robredo’s camp of negative campaigning. “Let’s stop the quarrel between the reds and yellows,” Mr. Domagoso said, alluding to the camps of Mr. Marcos and Ms. Robredo, respectively. The two other candidates also attacked the opposition camp.

Mr. Domagoso, who has presented himself as an alternative candidate, called the vice-president’s supporters “yellow,” a derogatory term used against the political supporters of the late President Benigno S.C. Aquino III.

His mother, the late President Corazon C. Aquino, led a popular street uprising that toppled the regime of the late dictator Ferdinand E. Marcos — Bongbong’s father — and forced him and his family into exile in the United States in 1986. Ms. Robredo is not a member of the Aquino clan.

Mr. Domagoso and Mr. Lacson also lamented how they were being forced to withdraw from the race, and the fact that they have lost some supporters.

The issues raised by the candidates were “nothing new,” said Maria Ela L. Atienza, who also teaches political science at the UP. “A press release signed by all of them would have sufficed,” she said in a Viber message.

She noted that instead of raising attention to reported anomalies in absentee voting, Mr. Domagoso, Mr. Lacson, and Mr. Gonzales “focused on themselves as victims and threw accusations based on social media.“

“They sounded like Duterte apologists who seek to frame the country as just divided between reds and yellows,” she said. “This is very simplistic and an insult to Filipino voters.”

Election body told to probe spoiled ballot in Singapore

April 17, 2022 | 8:01 pm

THE COMMISSION on Elections (Comelec) should finish its investigation of a spoiled ballot given to a Filipino voter in Singapore last week before the May 9 elections or risk losing its credibility, according to political analysts.

“The issue of the alleged pre-shaded ballot incident in Singapore needs to be resolved by the Comelec immediately, otherwise, this incident will put it in a bad light,” Marlon M. Villarin, a political science professor from the University of Santo Tomas, said in a Viber message at the weekend. “Otherwise, the integrity of the election results will be tarnished.”

A Facebook post of a Filipino based in Singapore claiming she had received a pre-shaded ballot went viral last week.

The Philippine Embassy in Singapore said it was aware of the spoiled ballot inadvertently given to a voter during Monday’s election, which it called an “isolated incident.”

“This report is alarming and should be seriously attended to by Comelec,” Jean Encinas-Franco, a political science professor from the University of the Philippines, (UP) said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

“Elections must not only be implemented but must be perceived as legitimate by the electorate and reports such as this should be addressed to ensure the public that Comelec has zero-tolerance for electoral fraud,” she added.

Election Commissioner George Erwin M. Garcia said they were investigating the incident.

“We should really investigate this incident as this should not happen again and find out why this spoiled ballot was given to the voter,” he told CNN Philippines last week.

The ballot, he added, should have been segregated and put in an envelope for spoiled ballots “so we will definitely get that answer within the next few days.”

Cleo Anne A. Calimbahin, an associate professor at De La Salle University, said human error could have caused the incident.

“Our embassy officials are deputized to manage overseas automated voting even as they continue to attend to their other duties,” she said in an e-mail. “I have observed overseas automated voting in other countries and human error is possible given how stretched the manpower is in the embassies.”

Mr. Garcia earlier said electoral board members abroad should be given the benefit of the doubt because of how tiring their duties can be.

Last week, Davao City Mayor and vice-presidential bet Sara Duterte-Carpio urged Comelec to probe similar allegations of electoral irregularities in Dubai and Singapore. She said reports of pre-shaded ballots were “grossly disconcerting.”

“Even if the embassy said this was a mistake and an isolated incident, why it happened and how it was remedied must be explained,” Maria Ela L. Atienza, who also teaches political science at UP, said in a Viber message.

“Government officials and personnel should make sure to carry out the process properly and of course, all voters should be vigilant and report any irregularities they see with proper evidence.”

“The Movement Against Disinformation calls on Comelec and all government offices concerned not just to warn people against spreading fake news but more importantly, to investigate these incidents fully and diligently,” the group said in a statement.

“All public institutions are reminded that its exclusive master is the sovereign people, and it should act solely in accordance with the best interests of public service,” it added.

Comelec last week called the incident in Singapore “fake news” and warned the public against spreading false information.

In Sweden, at least three Filipino voters got two ballots from the Philippine Embassy there.

“Regardless of whether the incidents are isolated, or worse, deliberate occurrences, the Comelec must faithfully and willingly carry out its mandate of guarding the sanctity of the ballot,” the group said. — John Victor D. Ordoñez and Alyssa Nicole O. Tan

Over 100 still missing as storm Agaton death toll reaches 172

April 17, 2022 | 7:55 pm

Agaton-survivors-BFP-REGION-8 — SURVIVORS of a landslide that buried a community in Baybay City, Leyte recover at a medical facility on April 16. Search, rescue, and retrieval operations by teams composed of members of the Bureau of Fire Protection, military, police and local disaster response councils, were still ongoing as of April 17 in the most devastated areas. — BFP-REGION 8

REPORTED deaths from storm Agaton, with international name Megi, has reached 172 while 110 were still missing, according to the national disaster management agency’s April 17 update.

Agaton brought several days of moderate but continuous rains mostly in the Visayas, the country’s central islands, and parts of southern Philippines, which triggered flooding and landslides that buried communities downhill.

Most of those who died were due to landslides in the province of Leyte in Eastern Visayas, with at least 110 in Baybay City and more than 50 in Abuyog town.

In Western Visayas, at least 11 people drowned in northern parts of Iloilo and in Capiz.

Search, rescue, and retrieval operations were continuing in the most devastated areas while relief services were also ongoing for 396,000 people displaced, with more than half staying across 909 evacuation centers.

President Rodrigo R. Duterte went to Leyte and Capiz on Friday and Saturday, respectively, where he promised survivors of continued food aid for “as long as necessary” and assistance for rebuilding homes or possible relocation.

“(T)he government is here, all the agencies of government is here. All your worries about food, that won’t be a problem at all. For as long as you are hungry and you don’t have any resources or haven’t been relocated, food will be provided. That won’t be a problem,” he said in Visayan in Baybay on Friday, based on a transcript emailed by the Presidential communications office.

Initial reports submitted to the national disaster council show 670 houses were totally destroyed while 9,723 were partially damaged.

AGRI DAMAGE
Meanwhile, farm sector damage has risen to P718 million, according to the Department of Agriculture’s continuing assessment of Agaton’s impact.

Damage and losses were reported in the regions of Western Visayas, Eastern Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Soccsksargen and Caraga. There were 12,151 farmers affected, with volume of production loss at 41,580 metric tons (MT) and 17,925 hectares of agricultural areas.

Affected commodities include rice, corn, high value crops, and livestock.

Rice was the most affected crop with P672.2 million in losses across 17,318 hectares.

This was followed by high-value crops, such as banana and cacao, at P24.7 million or 576 MT and corn at P21.1 million or 883 MT.

The agriculture department said it is continuing to conduct the assessment of damage and losses in the agri-fisheries sector.

It also said it is providing assistance to affected farmers and fishers, including: rice, corn and assorted vegetable seeds, and drugs and biologics for livestock and poultry.

It is also using the Survival and Recovery Program of the Agricultural Credit Policy Council, available funds from Philippine Crop Insurance Corporation, and the Quick Response Fund for the rehabilitation of affected areas. — Marifi S. Jara and Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

Public schools can’t require vaccination vs COVID for student registration

April 17, 2022 | 7:53 pm

classroom-teacher-students — PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS

UNVACCINATED learners should not be turned away by public schools as the country has started to partially shift back to in-person classes and registration is underway for the next school year, a local government official and senatorial aspirant said.

“There are reports that some schools require students to present proof of vaccination before they can be registered for in-person schooling,” said Sorsogon Governor Francis Joseph G. Escudero in a statement.

“This is, in plain terms, illegal,” said Mr. Escudero, who is eyeing a return to the Senate where he previously served for several terms beginning 2007.

“We cannot hinder access to education on any condition because this is a fundamental human right,” he added.

The Department of Education (DepEd) is holding an early registration period from March 25 to April 30 for the academic year 2022-2023.

Mr. Escudero emphasized that there is a law providing that all Filipinos receive quality education at all levels, with specific government agencies mandated to ensure access to education accessible for all.

“Even as we intensify our vaccination drive, in light of the millions of expiring COVID-19 vaccines, we cannot violate people’s rights and make vaccination mandatory,” he said.

“What the DepEd can strengthen is its education drive on why the youth should be vaccinated and the establishment of safety protocols in schools,” he added.

Vaccination against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among children aged 12 to 17 began in Nov. 2021 while inoculation for those 5 to 11 was launched in February.

As of March, a combined 10.9 million have received the jab for the two age groups.

The Philippine government is targeting to vaccinate more than 39.41 million children aged zero to 17 years old against the coronavirus.

“Whether these children are vaccinated or not, they are entitled to enter our public and private schools, no ifs or buts. Their right to quality education is unconditional and unquestionable, and COVID-19 does not change that,” Mr. Escudero said. — Alyssa Nicole O. Tan

Life after presidency: Will the popular Duterte face prosecution over his drug war?

April 17, 2022 | 7:53 pm

Duterte-20210318-PCOO.GOV.PH — PCOO.GOV.PH

PRESIDENT Rodrigo R. Duterte could face prosecution over his controversial drug war among other issues after stepping down from office, analysts said, but several factors such as his continuing popularity and his successor would come into play as to whether he will ever be put behind bars.

Maria Ela L. Atienza, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines, told BusinessWorld in a text message that “given the weak party system in the Philippines, President Duterte will likely lose many allies once he steps down from office by end of June as politicians will gravitate to the new president.”

This is even more likely if Vice President Maria Leonor “Leni” G. Robredo, an opposition icon, leads the next administration, she added.

“A Robredo presidency may leave him without much options as there will be a strong demand from Robredo supporters for investigations related to the drug war, red-tagging of opposition, harassment of (the) opposition, pandemic response, graft and corruption, etc.,” Ms. Atienza said.

Mr. Duterte’s party, PDP-Laban, does not have an official presidential candidate as it has been divided into two warring factions. The President himself has declined to personally endorse any of the aspirants.

“It is quite unfortunate on his part and his allies that they failed to have a strong official candidate for president,” Ms. Atienza said. “He said he will not endorse any presidential candidate but we don’t know if he can make a deal with whoever becomes president so that he will be protected from legal challenges and investigations.”

University of the Philippines Political Science Assistant Professor Sol Dorotea R. Iglesias said the President’s transformation into citizen Duterte will put his popularity to the test.

“Is it genuine or are respondents motivated by fear or other reasons, as new research is beginning to show?” she told BusnessWorld in an email.

A Social Weather Stations survey released in February showed that Mr. Duterte’s satisfaction rating stayed “very good” as 75% of Filipinos remained satisfied with his performance.

“Compared to September 2021, gross satisfaction with President Duterte rose by eight points from 67%, gross undecided fell by two points from 11%, and gross dissatisfaction stayed at 15%,” it said in a statement.

A Robredo presidency could back domestic and international prosecution against Mr. Duterte since the vice president has long opposed the popular leader’s war on drugs and has made clear statements about allowing the International Criminal Court to conduct its investigation, Ms. Iglesias said.

“Prosecution of extra-judicial killings and other human rights violations during President Duterte’s term, particularly of activists and targets of red-tagging, can also be expected,” she said.

On the other hand, Froilan C. Calilung, a political science professor at the University of Santo Tomas, said in a Viber message to BusinessWorld that although cases were filed against former Philippine presidents after their respective terms, Mr. Duterte’s popularity is on an entirely “different level.”

It is “the first in recent history where an outgoing president enjoys a high satisfactory and trust rating,” Mr. Calilung said.

“This may mean that the public may not be interested in pursuing a case against him once he steps down,” he said. “Even if Leni wins, a Duterte imprisonment may be (a) far-fetched idea.”

Other presidential candidates, except for the late dictator’s son and namesake Ferdinand “Bongbong” R. Marcos, Jr., have expressed openness to an investigation of Mr. Duterte.

Ms. Atienza said the possibility of legal scrutiny will still depend on Mr. Duterte’s level of authority after leaving Malacañang Palace.

“A Marcos Jr. presidency may give him time to bargain for lesser legal battles and investigations but it depends on whether he will remain influential,” she said.

“Either way, his lawyers may use the usual route of appealing for leniency because of advanced age and illness.” — Alyssa Nicole O. Tan

Election watchdog warns voters not to confuse party-lists with gov’t programs

April 17, 2022 | 7:53 pm

AN ELECTION Watchdog on Saturday warned the public of party-list groups bearing identical names with government programs.

In a statement on Saturday, Kontra Daya pointed out in its fact-checking initiative that Pagtibayin at Palaguin ang Pangkabuhayang Pilipino (4Ps) party-list group had a similar logo and acronym with the government’s conditional cash transfer program known as 4Ps.

“It is wrong for a party-list group to claim that the use of 4Ps acronym is similar to other party-list groups that use familiar acronyms like BHW (barangay health worker) and OFW (overseas Filipino worker),” it said.

The election watchdog noted that the general shape and texture of the party-list group’s logo are identical to an institutionalized poverty-reduction strategy of the government.

Kontra Daya rated as “false” the claim that the 4Ps party-list group’s acronym cannot be confused with the DSWD’s 4Ps program.”

The government’s 4Ps — or Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program — was launched as a provisional poverty-reduction scheme in 2008.

It was institutionalized in 2019 with the passage of Republic Act No. 11310 or the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program Act.

Under the law, the government aims to provide adequate social services, provide full employment, and improve the quality of life of the marginalized sector.

The Department of Budget and Management earlier said the government will spend P115.7 billion for the social assistance program this year.

Kontra Daya said it was not surprising that the Department of Social Welfare and Development, the 4Ps implementing agency, has “denounced the use of the 4Ps acronym by the party-list group and has called for the cancellation of the latter’s Securities and Exchange Commission registration.”

Last month, the poll watchdog also conducted a study that said about seven out of 10 party-list groups in this year’s elections have been hijacked by big businesses and political clans.

These parties represented vague advocacies, are connected to the government or military, included incumbent local officials and had candidates who have been charged in court, it said. Under the Party-List System Act, elected officials from these groups must belong to “marginalized and underrepresented sectors.”

Party-list nominees account for a fifth of the House of Representatives.

Political analysts earlier called for the Comelec to review the party-list system.

“Domination by political dynasties of the partly-list system is another evidence of the rottenness of our political system,” said Michael Henry LI. Yusingco last month, a senior research fellow at the Ateneo de Manila University Policy Center.

“I understand that the Comelec is limited by the guidelines set forth by the party-list law and prevailing jurisprudence, but they cannot ignore the fact that the constitutional purpose of the party-list system is no longer being met,” he said. — John Victor D. Ordoñez

Economist flags possibility of close vote, electoral protest

April 17, 2022 | 7:21 pm

THE PROSPECT of a closer Presidential vote is looming based on momentum indicated by the March surveys, raising the possibility of a contested outcome that could lead to a repeat of the 2016 electoral protest, a GlobalSource Partners economist said.

Romeo L. Bernardo, the firm’s Philippine country analyst, said in a brief that Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr.’s lead in the polls remains significant, though Vice President Ma. Leonor G. Robredo’s following has swollen to about 24%.

“While March survey results in past elections tended to have good predictive value of election results, many acknowledge that the campaign momentum is on VP Robredo’s side. Will this time be different?” Mr. Bernardo said.

“With less than a month to go until election day, does she have enough time to catch up? And if she manages to significantly narrow the gap towards the homestretch, would a close count lead to a repeat of the 2016 electoral protest (between the same two candidates but for the VP position) and increase business uncertainty?” he added.

He added that the Pulse Asia survey from mid-March showed Ms. Robredo’s voter share jumping 9 percentage points to 24%, which has “invigorated her supporters to intensify their house-to-house push in hopes of winning over supporters of the other candidates.”

“Although the VP’s recent gains have made the presidential campaign more interesting, political pundits continue to eye the wide gap between her and Mr. Marcos. The survey in March showed Mr. Marcos still enjoying a majority of voter support (56%), which is just 4 (percentage points) below his share in February.”

He also noted the prospect of an economy returning to normal, as reflected in the World Bank and Asian Development Bank (ADB) economic outlooks for the Philippines that were “mostly steady.”

The World Bank sees Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022 coming in at 5.7%, down from the 5.8% forecast issued in October. The ADB’s forecast was 6%, unchanged from its view in December.

“The steady outlooks (reflected) the positive impact of increased economic activity following the lifting of Covid restrictions, against the negative impacts of slower global growth and tighter financial conditions as well as rising inflation,” Mr. Bernardo said.

“Nevertheless, both institutions warned of downside risks from a worsening of global conditions, economic and geopolitical, in the face of more limited macroeconomic policy room,” he added. — Tobias Jared Tomas