COPENHAGEN – Global warming is crossing dangerous thresholds sooner than expected with the world’s coral reefs now in an almost irreversible die-off, marking what scientists on Monday described as the first “tipping point” in climate-driven ecosystem collapse.

The warning in the Global Tipping Points report by 160 researchers worldwide, which synthesizes groundbreaking science to estimate points of no return, comes just weeks ahead of this year’s COP30 climate summit being held at the edge of the Amazon rainforest in Brazil.

That same rainforest system is now at risk of collapsing once the average global temperature warms beyond just 1.5 degrees Celsius based on deforestation rates, the report said, revising down the estimated threshold for the Amazon.

Also of concern if temperatures keep rising is the threat of disruption to the major ocean current called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, which helps to ensure mild winters in northern Europe.
“Change is happening fast now, tragically, in parts of the climate, the biosphere,” said environmental scientist Tim Lenton at the University of Exeter, who is the lead author of the report.

SOME POSITIVE SIGNS
Lenton noted positive signs when it came to phasing out the fossil fuels most responsible for climate change. Renewables, for example, accounted for more electricity generation than coal this year for the first time, according to data from the nonprofit think tank Ember.

“Nobody wants to be just traumatized and disempowered,” Lenton said. “We still have some agency.”
The scientists implored countries at November’s COP30 to work toward bringing down climate-warming carbon emissions.

Scientists have been surprised by how quickly changes are unfolding in nature, with average global temperatures already having warmed by 1.3-1.4 degrees Celsius (2.3 to 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above the preindustrial average, according to data from U.N. and EU science agencies.

WARMEST ON RECORD
The last two years were Earth’s warmest on record, with marine heatwaves that stressed 84% of the world’s reefs to the point of bleaching and, in some cases, death. Coral reefs sustain about a quarter of marine life.

For corals to recover, the world would need to drastically ramp up climate action to reverse temperatures back down to just 1 degree C above the preindustrial average, the scientists suggested.

“The new report makes clear that each year there is an increase in the scope and magnitude of the negative impacts of climate change,” said Pep Canadell, a senior scientist at Australia’s CSIRO Climate Science Centre.

The world is currently on track for about 3.1 degrees C of warming in this century, based on national policies. — Reuters

WASHINGTON – The ongoing shutdown debate between Democrats and President Donald Trump’s Republicans is largely avoiding the difficult fiscal issues clouding the country’s future – the rising national debt and the long-term financial health of Social Security and Medicare.

The fifteenth partial federal government shutdown since 1981 has been sparked by Democrats’ demand for spending, which would cost about $1.5 trillion over the next decade according to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, adding to the nearly $38 trillion national debt.

“We have huge real problems in this country, and we are stuck in a perpetual messaging war between the two parties, instead of real attempts to fix these divisions and divides and do something to deal with our fiscal problems,” said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which advocates for deficit-reduction.

The Senate has now voted repeatedly on dueling funding packages, including a bill passed by the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and backed by Trump that would reopen federal agencies at recent funding levels through November 21. But Democrats favor their own legislation, which would ramp up spending mainly for healthcare.

There has been little or no discussion about how to reduce the nearly $2 trillion federal deficit.

Most government shutdowns over the past 44 years have involved fiscal issues such as spending, deficits and the need for a balanced budget. But since the start of Trump’s first term in 2017, the government has now shut down three times over social issues including immigration and healthcare.

The current standoff is centered on $1.7 trillion in funds for agency operations, which amounts to only about one-quarter of annual federal spending.

In the meantime, independent analysts warn that the US finds itself in a deteriorating fiscal position, with debt growing faster than the economy, interest payments on debt crowding out spending for programs and financial weakness threatening social trust funds for the elderly.

MULTIPLYING DEBT
The national debt has risen from $5.67 trillion to $37.88 trillion over the last quarter-century, increasing steadily regardless of which party held sway in the White House and Congress. Interest on the debt alone now exceeds $1 trillion per year, more than what the US government spends on defense, and Social Security and Medicare are due to run short of funds in 2033, which could trigger across-the-board cuts for beneficiaries.

Republican leaders including House Speaker Mike Johnson have warned about the debt impact of higher spending in the shutdown debate. But most Republican rhetoric has focused on “radical” Democratic priorities, rather than fiscal health, while Democrats have ignored the fiscal issue altogether and blamed Republicans for increasing the deficit by enacting Trump’s tax-cut and spending bill.

The Trump bill is expected to add $4.1 trillion to the deficit over a decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office, which also forecast that the cost could be offset by an estimated $4 trillion in new revenue brought in by Trump’s tariffs.

“I think Donald Trump would spend any amount for whatever it takes to advance his personal interest,” said Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon, top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee.

SOME DEFICIT HAWKS REMAIN
A handful of Republican fiscal hawks have voiced the need to rein in federal spending. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky has voted repeatedly against the Republican funding bill, saying the measure – like the Democratic version – would add to the debt.

Others agree but view the government shutdown as part of an organized effort by party leaders and appropriators to maintain control of spending decisions and avoid the politically difficult choices that come with deficit-reduction.

“To the outside world, this looks dysfunctional. But this is a very well-honed process,” said Republican Senator Ron Johnson, who has proposed legislation to end shutdowns and wants federal spending reduced to levels seen before the COVID pandemic.

“What you’re seeing right here, the shutdown showdown, this is the magician’s shiny object. Look over here! Look at this! Don’t look at the $37 trillion we’re in debt,” the Wisconsin Republican told reporters.

Republican Senator Roger Marshall said he hopes that Republican control of the White House and both chambers of Congress can eventually facilitate a reduction in federal spending to about $6.4 trillion as a first step toward balancing the budget.

“It’s a political shutdown,” the Kansas Republican told Reuters. “My goals, Republicans’ goals, are to keep the government open and work towards a responsible budget. But nobody wants to hear that.”

What it could take to make the debt and deficit center-stage is unclear, with some Republicans thinking that mounting economic pressure from the debt could eventually turn the tide.

“We’re sleepwalking into a debt crisis,” said Jessica Riedl, senior fellow at the right-leaning Manhattan Institute. “The real pain may not be felt for several years, but the decisions made today all but guarantee that we will not avert the debt crisis.” — Reuters

JERUSALEM/CAIRO – US President Donald Trump will receive a hero’s welcome in Israel’s parliament on Monday as a fragile Gaza ceasefire he helped to broker enters a fourth day, with the expected release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners marking tentative steps in a conflict long resistant to resolution.

Trump’s Knesset speech follows two years of war sparked by a Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, that killed around 1,200 people in Israel with 251 taken hostage. Israeli airstrikes and ground assaults have since devastated Gaza, killing more than 67,000 Palestinians, the enclave’s health officials say.

“The war is over,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One as he began his flight from Washington to Israel. Asked about prospects for the region, he said: “I think it’s going to normalize.”

The U.N. said humanitarian aid was ramping up, with cooking gas entering for the first time since March and expanded food and medical deliveries.

A LASTING PEACE SEEMS DISTANT
The truce and the exchange of both hostages and prisoners offered a glimmer of hope, but despite Trump’s optimism, the loss of life, devastation and trauma underscored how distant a lasting peace remains. Progress now hinges on global commitments that could be taken up by a summit later on Monday of more than 20 world leaders led by Trump in Egypt’s Sharm el-Sheikh resort.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will attend the summit in Egypt, an Axios reporter said on Sunday, citing a senior Palestinian official. No Israeli officials will attend, Israeli government spokesperson Shosh Bedrosian said.

Bedrosian said Israel expected the remaining hostages to begin returning early on Monday with the 20 living hostages to be released together, followed by the handover of bodies of the remaining 28 dead hostages.

She said 1,700 Palestinians detained since October 7, 2023, along with 22 minors and the bodies of 360 militants, would be released only after Israeli hostages were safely returned.

On the ground, Palestinians returning to northern Gaza described scenes of staggering destruction.

“We couldn’t believe the devastation,” said Rami Mohammad-Ali, 37, who walked 15 kilometers (9 miles) with his son from Deir Al Balah to Gaza City. “We are joyful to return, but bitter about the destruction,” he added, recounting the sight of human remains scattered along the roads.

ISRAELIS BOO NETANYAHU, CHEER TRUMP
Multitudes who gathered late on Saturday at Tel Aviv’s Hostages Square cheered and waved placards in praise of Trump during a speech by his special envoy Steve Witkoff but booed loudly when Witkoff sought to thank Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for his role in the ceasefire effort.

Trump will become only the fourth US president to address the Knesset, following Jimmy Carter in 1979, Bill Clinton in 1994 and George W. Bush in 2008.

In a letter last week inviting Trump to deliver a formal address, Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana wrote: “The people of Israel regard you as the greatest friend and ally of the Jewish nation in modern history.”

Israeli critics of Netanyahu, including hostages’ families, accuse him of deliberately prolonging the conflict to placate his far-right government coalition partners, whose backing is crucial to his political survival. The International Criminal Court last year issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity, which Israel denies.

“Tomorrow is the beginning of a new path. A path of building, a path of healing, and I hope – a path of uniting hearts,” Netanyahu said in a televised statement on Sunday.

The US, along with Egypt, Qatar and Turkey, mediated what has been described as a first phase agreement between Israel and Hamas. The next phase of Trump’s plan calls for an international body – a “Board of Peace” led by Trump and joined by former British Prime Minister Tony Blair – to play a role in Gaza’s post-war administration.

Much could still go wrong. Further steps in Trump’s 20-point plan have yet to be agreed. Those include how Gaza is to be ruled when fighting ends, and the ultimate fate of Hamas, which has rejected Israel’s demands that it disarm.

The Hamas-run Interior Ministry said it would deploy security forces in areas where the Israeli army withdrew. It was unclear whether armed militants would return to the streets in significant numbers, which Israel would see as a provocation.

TENSE NEGOTIATIONS OVER RELEASE OF PALESTINIAN PRISONERS
Israel and Hamas were locked in tense, albeit indirect, negotiations over the list of Palestinian prisoners to be freed. Sources close to Hamas said Israel had backtracked on a previously agreed list that included senior militant leaders, raising fears of a breakdown in the fragile deal.

The Israeli Justice Ministry released the names of 250 Palestinians convicted of murder and other serious crimes due to be released. The list excluded high-profile figures such as senior Hamas commanders as well as Marwan Barghouti and Ahmed Saadat – key demands from Hamas. Talks over the final list were ongoing, said the Hamas prisoners information office.

Defence Minister Israel Katz warned that once the hostages were back the military would proceed to destroy Hamas’ underground tunnel network in Gaza.

Palestinian analyst Akram Attallah told Reuters in Cairo the Trump plan had been crafted to favour Israel, allowing it to dictate terms and shift blame.

“If they choose to backtrack, they can find excuses and blame Hamas. Meanwhile, Hamas, the weaker party, loses all leverage once it hands over the hostages,” Attallah said. — Reuters

SEOUL – Samsung Electronics is expected to post its highest third-quarter profit since 2022, driven by higher memory chip prices supported by server demand as customers rebuild inventories, analysts’ estimates showed.

The world’s biggest maker of memory chips is projected to report an operating profit of 10.1 trillion won ($7.11 billion) for the July-September period, according to LSEG SmartEstimate from 31 analysts, which is weighted toward those who are more consistently accurate. This would be up 10% from a year earlier.

Analysts attributed the recovery mainly to better conventional memory chip pricing, which would offset weaker sales volumes of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips as Samsung has yet to supply its latest HBM products to Nvidia.

HBM chips, critical for artificial intelligence (AI) development, are designed to reduce power consumption and process large datasets by stacking chips vertically.

Analysts said demand for memory chips, particularly from hyperscalers and AI-related investments for services such as ChatGPT, have put more workload on general servers, thus boosting conventional memory chip prices.

Prices of some DRAM chips, widely used in servers, smartphones and PCs, jumped 171.8% in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to TrendForce data.

While Samsung’s conventional memory business performed well, analysts said delays in supplying its latest 12-layer HBM3E chips to Nvidia have hurt its profit and share price.

Rivals SK Hynix and Micron have gained more from AI-driven demand, while Samsung’s exposure to China, where advanced chip sales are restricted by the United States, has constrained its growth.

Analysts said market sentiment toward Samsung’s shares and chip business, including both memory and contract chip manufacturing, is expected to improve as it secures supply deals with major customers such as OpenAI and Tesla.

Samsung shares have risen more than 43% following its announcement of a chip supply deal with Tesla in July.

During OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s visit to South Korea earlier this month, Samsung, SK Hynix and OpenAI announced partnerships to supply advanced memory chips to the Stargate project.

The AI chip deal between OpenAI and AMD, one of Samsung’s major HBM customers, would also benefit Samsung, said Ryu Young-ho, a senior analyst at NH Investment & Securities.

Ryu added that Samsung’s $16.5 billion foundry deal with Tesla has lifted expectations that Samsung’s struggling contract chip manufacturing business could win more orders from major tech firms if the company delivers the project as planned.

While recent AI-driven supply deals signal a positive outlook for Samsung, analysts cautioned that uncertainties remain, including potential US tariffs on chips and China’s tightened export controls on rare earth materials used in advanced chips and manufacturing equipment.

In September, Micron said it expects to sell out all of its HBM chips for calendar year 2026 in the coming months due to strong demand.

Samsung will announce its estimates on revenue and operating profit on Tuesday, with full results due later this month. — Reuters

LONDON – AstraZeneca CEO Pascal Soriot looked relaxed standing in the Oval Office on Friday as US President Donald Trump unveiled a medicine deal that will lower drug prices for millions of Americans.

The hard work had paid off, allowing Soriot to clinch the first agreement for a non-US drugmaker and shield his Anglo-Swedish company from threatened steep tariffs on imports to the US – the world’s largest pharmaceuticals market.

That moment at the White House was the culmination of public and private meetings between Soriot and Trump officials, stretching back to November last year when Trump won election, three sources close to the negotiations told Reuters. And it went down to the wire with a last-minute push from AstraZeneca to seal the agreement.

“You’ve kept me up at night and my team as well. But it’s been really worth it,” Soriot joked to Trump.

ASTRAZENECA CEO MET TRUMP AT ROYAL BANQUET

The agreement will likely bolster the 66-year-old French-born Australian’s reputation as something of a Trump whisperer, even as many CEOs globally grapple with the president’s whipsaw tariff changes.

Trump argues Americans pay far too much – often three times more, studies show – for prescription medicines than in other wealthy nations and set a September 29 deadline for drugmakers to cut prices, using threats of tariffs up to 100% as leverage.

Soriot’s charm offensive started the week after Trump won the US election. On November 12, AstraZeneca announced a $3.5 billion plan to expand manufacturing and research in the United States.

Soriot, who arrived in the US early last week, most recently met Trump at a September 18 royal banquet dinner at Windsor Castle in Britain, the first source said.

Over the summer he met with US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick at least three times in Britain and the United States, that source added.

All three sources asked not to be named as the talks were confidential.

Soriot also developed a close relationship with vocal Trump ally and Republican high-flier, Governor Glenn Youngkin of Virginia, all three sources said. That led to a rapidly-assembled deal for a $4.5 billion plant in the state, which took just over a month to go from initial talks to an agreement.

On Thursday, a day before the Oval Office signing, Soriot and Youngkin stood shoulder-to-shoulder, shovels in hand, to break ground at the site.

“Youngkin has a lot of ambition and his connections with the administration were clearly helpful,” a second source said. “The Virginia facility deal showed the two sides were on the same page.”

ASTRAZENECA: A ‘VERY AMERICAN COMPANY’

Following the agreement and a deal a week earlier by US peer PfizerPFE.N that boosted global healthcare stocks, Wall Street now expects more companies to reach similar agreements with the Trump administration in the coming weeks.

Shore Capital analyst Sean Conroy said that Soriot, who publicly backed Trump on drug pricing and called AstraZeneca a “very American company”, secured a seat at the table in Washington with smart strategic announcements.

“That rhetoric has clearly resonated with the Trump administration and its agenda around Most Favored Nation drug pricing,” Conroy said, referring to the lowest price paid in other wealthy countries after fees and rebates.

SOME CONCESSIONS, BUT A WIN FOR ASTRAZENECA

Analysts had estimated that AstraZeneca was less exposed to US tariffs than many other major drugmakers, having already established substantial manufacturing capacity in the United States.

But tougher regulation and more price pressure in the UK, where many drugmakers have criticized the government for not doing enough to support the sector, gave AstraZeneca a strong business argument for the US deal.

Britain accounts for a small percentage of the company’s revenues but is where it is headquartered and primarily listed. AstraZeneca is the largest listed firm on London’s FTSE 100 Index.

In contrast to Britain, US officials are in the midst of an aggressive push to spur investment from firms like AstraZeneca and put in ample energy and effort to assist them, the first source said.

In July, AstraZeneca announced a sprawling $50 billion investment plan for the US market and in late September said it would do a full US listing of its shares alongside its current London listing.

By the time Pfizer signed its deal on September 30, AstraZeneca was already nearing its own finalised agreement, the three sources said.

Soriot headed to the US early last week even as the last details were being ironed out. Each day a deal looked close but didn’t arrive.

The Virginia plant agreement solidified goodwill between the company and the Trump administration, which ultimately helped push the deal over the line, the third source said.

In the end, while AstraZeneca made concessions on some drug prices for Medicaid and pledged to produce more medicines locally, its US arrangement marks a win for the company.

It gives more clarity, analysts say, without significantly denting expected revenues, which AstraZeneca is aggressively forecasting at $80 billion by 2030, with half of that coming from increased sales in the United States.

“Friday’s deal is the last piece in the puzzle,” the third source added. — Reuters