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Anger over ‘climate lockdown’ drives Swiss grandmother to sue government at EU court

A WOMAN walks on the ice to a measuring point on the Pers Glacier near the Alpine resort of Pontresina, Switzerland, July 21, 2022. — REUTERS

GENEVA — Last summer while dozens of Swiss pensioners were campaigning in the Alps to save their fast-melting glaciers, 85-year-old Marie-Eve Volkoff was instead stuck inside her small Geneva apartment watching pre-recorded TV programs.

Her frustration with what she calls “climate lockdown” is part of her motivation for suing the Swiss government alongside more than 2,000 other elderly women in the first ever climate case before the European Court of Human Rights this week. The submission, set to be followed by two more this year, could result in emissions cut order that goes beyond even the 2015 Paris Agreement commitments, setting an important precedent.

Switzerland’s punishing triple heatwaves in 2022 compelled Ms. Volkoff to stay at home for 11 weeks with just short outings which she says was worse than COVID-19 and a violation of her human rights.

“I have had to enormously restrict my activities, to wait, with the blinds down and the air conditioning on (shame for an ecologist!) for the heatwave to pass, allowing me to go back to normal life,” she wrote in a letter to her fellow activists entitled ‘a little tale from climate lockdown’ which she shared with Reuters.

Ms. Volkoff, who formerly worked as a volunteer and social worker and enjoys Tai Chi, theater and swimming in Lake Geneva, says that her confinement was necessary due to a cardiovascular illness.

Her medical documents, which form part of the case’s legal backbone and were reviewed exclusively by Reuters, showed she has an irregular heart beat that worsens during hot weather obliging her to double her medication and lie down.

Before buying an air conditioner in 2019, Ms. Volkoff said she used to hover near her bed for fear of passing out.

“I am fighting for my life and for my quality of life. Why do I fight? Because it’s only going to get worse and, if the government is as languid as it is now, it won’t sort itself out,” she said, describing Swiss action to date as “shameful”.

Some of the other women in the case described shortness of breath, nausea and even loss of consciousness during heatwaves which are becoming more frequent due to climate change. One told Reuters she felt she would “melt into the concrete” when out walking on a hot day. Others sought refuge in their cellars.

SLOW POLITICS, STRONG LOBBIES
Switzerland’s policies to date are deemed “insufficient” by Climate Action Tracker, a website which monitors states’ action on global warming. Bern outlined a plan to cut emissions further in 2021 but voters rebuffed it as too burdensome.

The Swiss government declined to comment on the case. It told the court that the changes to the women’s lives during heatwaves like staying at home were “quite common” and that everyone, including plants and animals, was affected.

More broadly, Switzerland said it recognizes that climate change is a problem for the country where temperatures are rising about twice the global rate. But it says solutions need to be found at home.

Anne Mahrer, co-president of the association Senior Women for Climate Protection, which is an applicant in the case in its own right alongside Ms. Volkoff, told Reuters that her years as a former politician persuaded her to pursue another route.

“Politics is very slow,” she said. “Proposals pass from one chamber to another and the lobbies are very strong.”

Frustration drove one father to do a long hunger strike outside parliament and other climate activists to launch civil disobedience campaigns.

Observers acknowledge that it may be difficult to prove the women’s suffering is the result of climate change, rather than something else. Twice, local courts have rejected their arguments during the six-year legal battle.

Strasbourg has fast-tracked the hearing, meaning judges are set to make a decision within a year instead of the usual three.

But due to the advanced age of the Swiss women (73 on average), several dozen of them have already died.

“I might no longer be here when the decision comes but at least I did what I could,” said Ms. Volkoff. — Reuters

Investments in renewable energies must quadruple to meet climate target — IRENA

RAWFILM-UNSPLASH

BERLIN  — Global investments in energy transition technologies must more than quadruple annually to stay in line with commitments made under the Paris climate accord, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) said on Tuesday.

Investments in renewable energy technologies reached a record of $1.3 trillion last year but that figure must rise to around $5 trillion annually to meet the key Paris accord target of limiting temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, IRENA said.

In total, the world needs around $35 trillion for transition technology by 2030, including improving efficiency, electrification, grid expansion and flexibility, IRENA said.

Renewable energy deployment must grow from around 3,000 gigawatts annually today to over 10,000 GW in 2030, IRENA said, adding that more equality is needed in renewable expansion between industrial and developing countries.

New renewable energy projects in China, the European Union and the United States accounted for two thirds of installed capacity last year, while Africa accounted for only 1% of renewable capacity installed.

“A fundamental shift in the support to developing nations must put more focus on energy access and climate adaptation,” IRENA’ Director General Francesco La Camera said, calling on financial institutions to direct more funds towards energy transition projects with better conditions.

IRENA called for directing planned fossil fuel investments  — around $1 trillion of fossil fuel investments per year by 2030 —  toward renewable energy technologies and infrastructure. — Reuters

Rethinking public debt as positive investment in sustainable development

FREEPIK

THE UNPRECEDENTED fiscal firepower used to protect the vulnerable from the harsh socio-economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting economic contraction have pushed the average government debt level in the Asia-Pacific region to its highest since 2008.

Public debt distress is expected to worsen amid the global economic slowdown, record high inflation, and rising interest rates, and uncertainty induced by the war in Ukraine. And surging debt service payments are expected to put public debt sustainability of several developing Asia-Pacific economies at risk. Most concerning, debt distress risk is highest for countries with the highest development finance needs, including small island developing States.

Public debt is a powerful development tool in need of a major rethink.

Yet, a higher debt level is not necessarily a bad thing, according to this year’s edition of the Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific. Current policy debates on public debt sustainability do not take into account the long-term positive socio-economic and environmental impact of public investments in laying the foundations of inclusive, resilient, and sustainable prosperity.

Indeed, left unaddressed, development deficits and climate risks hurt economic prospects and public debt sustainability itself. Our analysis shows that social spending cuts increase poverty and inequality and undermine economic productivity in the long term. Conversely, investing in healthcare, education, social protection, and climate action is good economics.

Multilateral lenders and credit rating agencies focus excessively on keeping debt sustainable in the short term. Such perceived optimal debt levels are too low and lead to suboptimal development outcomes. Revisiting current debt sustainability norms has also become necessary with the emergence of major non-traditional bilateral creditors and a drastic fall in concessional development lending to Asian and Pacific countries over the past decade.

It is time for a bold shift in thinking about public debt sustainability. We propose an augmented approach that assesses public debt viability that takes into account a country’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) investment needs, government structural development policies aiming to boost economic competitiveness, and national SDG financing strategies.

It is time for creditors, international financial institutions, and credit rating agencies to consider the positive long-term economic, social, and environmental outcomes of investing in the SDGs, while assessing public debt sustainability. Our research finds that public debt is found to decline over the long term when the socio-economic and environmental benefits of public investments are incorporated.

Rather than penalizing bold fiscal support for people and the environment, international creditors should consider if such spending would boost economic productivity. Lenders and credit rating agencies should see debt relief as helping support the fiscal outlook, rather than as a sign of an upcoming debt default.

Developing countries should also strive to balance investing in the SDGs with ensuring debt sustainability. Governments should not feel deterred from borrowing for essential, high-impact sustainable development spending; rather, funds should be used efficiently and effectively. Public coffers should also be boosted by resource mobilization strategies designed to generate social and/or environmental benefits, such as through progressive taxation.

Effective public debt management reduces fiscal risks and borrowing costs, with several examples of good public debt management practices in the Asia-Pacific region. At the same time, countries with high debt distress levels may need pre-emptive, swift, and adequate sovereign debt restructuring, while efforts towards common international debt resolution mechanisms and restructuring frameworks needs to be accelerated.

We are in the fourth year of the Decade of Action to accelerate progress towards the SDGs with not much to show in gains. It is time for Asia and the Pacific to rise to the challenge of mobilizing the financial resources to realize the dream of resilient and sustainable prosperity for all.

 

Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana is the under-secretary-general of the UN and executive secretary of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).

A fair share for patients living with rare diseases

STOCK PHOTO | FREEPIK

The Stratbase ADR Institute, in partnership with UHC (Universal Health Care) Watch and the Philippine Society of Orphan Disorders (PSOD), held a forum last week titled “Sustaining Gains and Balancing Priorities – Implementation of Rare Disease Act for 2023.” This was the third discussion, since 2022, organized by the same groups. Previous forums provided venues for different stakeholders to tackle the milestones and as a continuing support for the implementation of the Rare Disease Law of 2016 (Republic Act No. 10747).

This year, the discussions were held in line with the recent celebration of Rare Disease Week, marked every 4th week of February, and the 7th anniversary of the signing of the Act. We also needed to tackle a much more pressing concern involving the funding allocation for 2023, which was significantly reduced to only P28.089 million from an initial funding of P104.9 million in 2022. This drastic reduction seriously compromises how the existing programs for rare disease patients will be sustained.

Prof. Victor Andres “Dindo” Manhit, President of the Stratbase ADR Institute, in his welcome address said it is vital to provide and expand our healthcare system with adequate resources to constantly respond to the needs of the public. We must all work together to make universal healthcare a reality for everyone and make it so that “no one will be left behind.”

Dr. Carmencita D. Padilla, current Chancellor of University of the Philippines Manila and founding Chairman of PSOD, said in her opening that “we’ve been able to get some funding but it’s not really enough. We really need long term funding because of the patients who need them.”

The Department of Health’s (DoH) representative, Dr. Manuel V. Vallesteros, the Division Chief of Disease Prevention and Control Bureau’s Child, Adolescent and Maternal Health, where the program for rare diseases is currently included, said that “there’s still a lot of work that must be done. Our list of diseases has become longer because it will include rare diseases other than those from inborn errors of metabolism. The DoH continuously encourages our medical societies to help us establish referral pathways for these other rare diseases.”

Dr. Celeste Mae Campomanes of the Philippine College of Chest Physicians and, at the same time, chair for the Council on Occupational and Interstitial Lung Diseases (ILD) said that their group looks forward to collaborating with the DoH. She has been involved in the management of patients suspected with ILD, a type of rare disease that is mostly detected in adult patients.

Lourdes Desiree Cembrano, the Director for Healthcare Policy at the Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Association of the Philippines (PHAP) mentioned that “the establishment of the private sector advisory council with health as a major component is a tangible cross-channel [for us] to put together [our] shared goals and aspirations to provide an environment that facilitates health for our fellow Filipinos, especially children with rare diseases.” She also said that “this administration recognizes the important role of the private sector, and the health representative on that private sector Advisory Council is a member company of PHAP.”

On the other hand, Dr. Marita Tolentino-Reyes, Chairperson of the Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Council, an independent advisory body created under Republic Act 11223 or the Universal Health Care Act, with the overall role of providing guidance on the coverage of health interventions and technologies to be funded by the government, identified challenges to the prioritization of rare diseases — lack of local data on burden of illness, healthcare costs, unharmonized list of international and local rare diseases, lack of local studies on clinical efficacy, effectiveness and safety, high costs of innovative drugs, and the lack of data on prevalence and access to care in subpopulations.

The overwhelming consensus in the forum is the need to build a “rare disease coalition” that will ensure the progressive implementation of the Rare Disease Law, and that includes the provision of appropriate and sustainable funding.

Funding should be based on the plans, activities, and programs indicated on a national action plan, which in this case, is the recently released Integrated Rare Disease Management Program Plan 2022-2026. It is essential that this strategic plan consider the wide spectrum of rare disease types, and the roles and responsibilities of different sectors in support of the implementation and achievement of the objectives stipulated in the Rare Diseases Act and its Implementing Rules and Regulations vis-a-vis the UHC Act.

As advocates of universal healthcare, we want everyone, most of all patients living with rare diseases, to receive a fair share of the pie — the support and attention being given by the government and all stakeholders. As we continue this advocacy, we will constantly be on the watch so that more patients will have access to needed health services.

Indeed, the journey has been long and we have much to do, but we have been progressing and gradually realizing our goals. Working together, we will see the objectives of the Rare Disease Law being realized — hopefully soon.

 

Alvin Manalansan is the health and nutrition fellow of Stratbase ADR Institute and co-convenor of the UHC Watch.

How to escape the hell of bad meetings

MEMENTO MEDIA-UNSPLASH

THE most fundamental questions for all organizations are about numbers. Is there a point when economies of scale are negated by the costs of bureaucracy and alienation? How many people can you admit to a meeting before it becomes a waste of time? What is the optimum size for a committee? Or a panel? Or a board?

Robin Dunbar is a British psychologist and evolutionary biologist who has been thinking about the question of numbers throughout his career (and who was once accorded one of the highest honors in the scientific world, that of being mentioned in The Big Bang Theory). While studying our nearest biological kin, apes and chimpanzees, he came across the “social brain hypothesis.” What sets primates apart from other mammals are the large, cohesive social groups based on bonded relationships (individuals form close friendships with each other) that they inhabit. Such relationships depend on the ability of animals to figure out how others will behave and how to interact with predicted behavior. That skill requires considerable computational power — in other words, a big brain. The social brain hypothesis dictates that the size of the group that primates form will be limited by the average size of their brains. For humans the group size is 148 — or 150 for convenience.

Having hit on the magic number, Dunbar noticed that it kept coming up everywhere. Hunter-gatherer communities — the communities in which human beings primarily lived until around 12,000 years ago — tended to consist of about 150 people. The basic unit of modern armies is 150. Oxbridge colleges traditionally had between 100 and 200 members. Hutterite and Amish religious communities split up when they reach 150 and “plant” new colonies. Most people maintain a close personal network of about 150 “friends and family.” These are the people that they see on a regular basis and would go out of their way to help. Outside that magic number the ties are much looser and the sense of obligation less telling.

Dunbar then went on to discover various smaller numbers that hold significance in human relationships: Five represents the number of close relationships that a person can have; 15 represents the number of people who can be considered best friends; 50 represents your main social circle, the number of people you would invite to a big garden party or major birthday.

In The Social Brain: The Psychology of Successful Groups, Dunbar has teamed up with two Oxford University colleagues at the Said Business School, Tracey Camilleri and Samantha Rockey, to apply his insights to the business world. The authors not only explain the importance of getting the numbers right for various business processes. (Given this focus on optimal group size, the unconventional choice of three authors is left frustratingly unexplained. Surely most co-authors of books choose to write with just one partner for a good reason.) They also draw lessons from evolutionary biology about how to make sure that groups of various sizes work well together.

The authors emphasize the importance of matching the size of the group to the task at hand — something that ought to be obvious but is ignored with surprising frequency. If you need to make decisions fast, as in crisis management or creative development, five is a good number. (An analysis of 58 software development teams found that the five most successful teams averaged 4.4 members while the five least successful ones averaged 7.8 members. Five also provides a natural tie-break.) If you want to make complex decisions, then 12 to 15 is a better size, since it provides more perspectives. Work groups can contain six to 12 people, provided that each person knows his or her role and the agenda is clear. Fifty is a good number for an information-sharing meeting if you have a clear leader and a fixed agenda. Fifty is also the maximum number at which it is possible to run a “community of practice” along simple democratic lines without a formal management system in place.

The cost of ignoring these numerical constraints can be seen everywhere in business. Oversized board meetings fail to provide proper oversight. Oversized crisis management teams bicker while the company burns. Oversized meetings of all kinds allow bores to hold court while most people check their phones — or else dissolve into a cacophony of competing voices as everyone tries to have their say.

The authors also make much of the dangers of gigantism. Chris Cox, who was chief product officer at Facebook back in 2005 when the company had fewer than 100 employees, told a meeting of the Aspen Ideas Festival in 2019 that “I’ve talked to so many startup CEOs who say that after they pass this number [150 employees] weird stuff starts to happen.” Patty McCord, a former chief talent officer at Netflix, talks about a “stand-on-the-chair number”: If you stand on a chair and shout and people still can’t hear you, then you know you are in the realm of “weird stuff” starting to happen. You need to rethink how you are organized.

The danger is that companies will be so focused on economies of scale that they lazily add more managers without recognizing the costs this exacts in bureaucratization, alienation, and free-riding. Faces disappear into the crowd. Meetings multiply and metastasize. People become functions (“marketing,” “product and development”). “We” becomes “us” and “them.” Modish practices such as hot-desking only add to the sense of alienation and impersonality. Intelligent companies work hard to avoid this by breaking themselves into smaller units — that is “growing large by staying small.”

It turns out that several companies instinctively hit on the problems of the “Dunbar number” before Dunbar himself did. When Wilbert (Bill) Gore established W.L. Gore and Associates with his wife, Genevieve, in 1958, he limited the size of his plants to 150 because he had seen the costs of alienation when working for a multinational. (The average size of plants is now closer to 250 than 150.) The Mars family was so keen on capping the size of the company’s headquarters at 50 that one member of the family routinely counted all the punch cards (even the CEO had to punch in until 2008) and raise the alarm if more than 50 were there. (Since the company’s acquisition of Wrigley in 2008, the size of the global HQ has been raised to 100.)

The authors also suggest that companies should use the insights of evolutionary biology to build and reinforce the social bonds that make companies function well. This starts with eating together (the word “company” comes from the Latin “companion” meaning “bread fellow” or someone you break bread with.) The great feasts of Oxford colleges and City guilds are not acts of self-indulgence, as they might appear, but highly effective bonding rituals that ease the flow of ideas and commerce. It extends to other sorts of bonding. Many Japanese companies get their employees to perform group exercises at their desks every morning, and hold nomikai (drinking parties) at night. IBM once obliged its employees to sing company songs. Some Silicon Valley companies hold rock concerts — or at least they did before the new “back-to-basics” ethic swept through the valley. The post-COVID fashion for working from home means that companies will have to redouble their bonding efforts.

Our authors are rather too keen on repeating the same points over and over rather than exploring possible objections. The human scale imposes costs as well as benefits. Anthony Trollope wrote immortal novels about the feuds that split asunder the small clerical world of Barchester. Oxbridge colleges are notorious for the internecine quarrels which can have big-brained intellectuals behaving like squabbling children. Christ Church, one of the grandest Oxford colleges, was recently consumed by a squabble between the college head, Martyn Percy, and the college fellows (or Students as they are called) that was so vicious, sustained, and frankly demented, that Percy considered committing suicide and the Charity Commission denounced the college for mismanagement and misconduct. Family companies suffer from more value-destroying feuds than public companies because they mix family tensions with pecuniary gain, as viewers of the hit series Succession know all too well.

Small institutions also have the habit of becoming nests of sybarites unless they are subjected to external discipline. Edward Gibbon famously complained that he learned nothing at Oxford because the tutors at his college, Magdalen (which also happens to be Dunbar’s college), were “sunk in port and prejudice” and almost completely indifferent to education, whether applied to their students or themselves. The university only became a center of excellence when 19th century reformers forced it to select its fellows based on open competition rather than “founders kin” and personal connections. Sensible family companies bring in external managers to add not just professionalism but also perspective. Sometimes you must fight against natural instincts such as nepotism to bring out the best in human potential.

Our authors are particularly frustrating on the question of diversity. They point out that human beings have a natural tendency toward homophily — they naturally seek out those who share their interests and experiences. Homophily efficiently deals with organizational gremlins such as building trust and promoting mutual understanding: hence the success of institutions that have traditionally drawn their members from a narrow range of backgrounds such as the Guards or Christie’s. But they also blandly endorse the current vogue for diversity. They may well be right that the value of diversity in bringing different perspectives is dispositive — that the juice is more than worth the squeeze, to borrow a phrase, as it was when the inbred Oxford colleges that Gibbon condemned were forced to introduce open competition. But it’s negligent at best and cowardly at worst to praise both homophily and diversity without examining the tension between the two.

This habit of dodging difficult questions is particularly annoying because The Social Brain is otherwise intellectually brave. Management science has always had a weakness for what the English literature don (and notorious misfit) F.R. Leavis called the “technologico-Benthamite reduction of human experience to the quantifiable, the measurable, the manageable.” Management theorists assume that the best way to motivate people is to reward them with carrots and punish them with sticks. This was the basis of Frederick Taylor’s theory of scientific management in the early 20th century and formed the basis of shareholder maximization theory more recently. Various attempts to embrace “scientific management” with more humanistic management have failed because humanistic management rapidly degenerates into kumbaya-singing twaddle.

But evidence is mounting that carrot-and-stick management is poor at promoting long-term loyalty because it fails to reckon with things like people’s pursuit of meaning and belonging. The Social Brain represents an interesting attempt to factor in the importance of meaning and belonging without indulging in twaddle. The authors rightly point out that the machine metaphors that still dominate management thinking (“well-oiled,” “leverage,” “nuts and bolts”) look old-fashioned in a world of super-fast computers. They also argue that it is perverse for people who are concerned with managing and motivating individuals not to take advantage of what evolutionary biologists have discovered about “what is unchanging in the ways human beings behave” — as if humans are blank slates to be written on at will rather than particularly intelligent members of the mammal family. “We have non-negotiable constraints,” they argue, “linked to brain size, time and underlying hormonal responses.”

The Social Brain makes a good start in outlining some of the valuable lessons managers can learn from biology. Many more lessons will come as management theorists, exhausted by both the failure of techno-Benthamism and the vacuity of its humanistic alternatives, start to reckon with the explosion of knowledge in the biological sciences.

BLOOMBERG OPINION

Don’t bank on it

GIORGIO TROVATO-UNSPLASH

THE Federal Reserve (Fed) did the sensible thing at its March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting, and Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a sensible message, in my view. Financial markets gave it a very dovish interpretation, which to me seems off the mark, and which once again diverges sharply from the Fed’s own policy forecasts. There is a substantial degree of cognitive dissonance in the markets’ reaction, as I will argue below.

The Fed raised its policy interest rate by another 25 basis points (bps), to a target range of 4.75%-5%. Powell noted that inflation is still too high and the labor market still too hot; he also recognized that the recent turmoil in the banking system seems likely to result in some contraction in credit conditions, which would have the same impact as more rate hikes and therefore would leave less need for additional policy tightening. The Fed consequently weakened its language on future rate moves, from envisioning “ongoing increases” in policy rates to saying that “some additional policy firming” may be needed.

By how much will credit conditions tighten because of the banking sector tensions? The Fed does not know, and neither does anybody else. At this stage, this is the pivotal uncertainty.

Powell however made a strong case that Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank are very special cases, that their vulnerabilities, mismanaged interest-rate exposure — and in SVB’s case at least — excessive concentration of their deposit base, are not mirrored in any significant number of other financial institutions, and that the US banking system as a whole is in very solid shape. Several recent analyses of the US banking system confirm this assessment. Notwithstanding this, we might still see some credit tightening as banks take a more cautious stance to protect themselves from the risk of deposit outflows, however unlikely.  But with the US economy still growing at a robust pace, a moderate credit tightening seems a lot more likely than a full-fledged credit crunch.

The Fed’s base case, indeed, isn’t that dovish at all — certainly not as dovish as the markets’. In the Fed’s base case, with some tightening of credit conditions, the central bank can limit itself to maybe just one more 25 bps rate hike and then hold rates at the higher level for a while to let inflation come back down to target.

Note that Powell was very explicit in saying that the Fed has a lot more work to do to bring inflation back to 2%; for the last several months, the Fed has made virtually no progress in cooling off the labor market or reducing the inflation rate for non-housing core services, the crucial and sticky measure that accounts for about two-thirds of overall inflation. Should credit conditions not tighten that much, therefore, the Fed might well have to hike more than is currently projected — a possibility that Powell acknowledges.

More important still, Powell stressed that the Fed does not foresee cutting rates in 2023. In fact, the new Fed forecasts have raised the median policy rate for 2024, from 4.1% to 4.3%— if anything, the Fed is signaling it intends to keep rates higher for longer.

The market, in contrast, gives just a 50% chance to even a single more 25 bps rate hike, and is pricing 100 bps in rate cuts below what the Fed’s “dot plot” predicts for year-end.*

There is a striking dissonance in financial markets’ pricings: The prediction of sharp Fed rate cuts would suggest a deep recession, perhaps precipitated by a credit crunch or a more extensive banking crisis. But risky assets have not sold off commensurately. Any widening in credit spreads has come almost entirely from moves in the underlying risk-free rates. That’s not at all consistent with an economic environment that would force the Fed into rate cuts.

Financial markets seem to have gone back to their old game of predicting a dovish Fed turn predicated on pure recency bias rather than on an actual worsening in economic conditions. Don’t bank on it. With a tight labor market and inflation running at 5%-6%, that’s just not going to happen, in my view.

*Source: CME Group fed funds futures market, as of March 22, 2023. There is no assurance any estimate, forecast, or projection will be realized.

 

Sonal Desai is the CIO of Franklin Templeton  Fixed Income.

Japan, US, Philippines to launch security talks -Kyodo

COMMANDING generals of the United States Army, US Marine Forces, Japan Ground Self-Defense Force, Philippine Army, and Philippine Marine Corps during the first Trilateral Key Leaders’ Engagement held at Camp Asaka in Tokyo, Japan on Dec. 11, 2022. — PHILIPPINE ARMY

 – Japan, the United States and the Philippines are preparing to establish a formal framework for high-level ministerial talks on security matters, the Kyodo news agency reported on Tuesday.

The three countries are considering holding their first meeting as early as April, Kyodo said.

The move comes as Taiwan, which lies between Japan and the Philippines, has become a focal point of intensifying Chinese military activity that Tokyo and Washington worry could escalate into war.

Japan held joint military exercises with the United States and the Philippines as recently as October. — Reuters

PBBM lauds highest Pag-IBIG dividend rates since pandemic: 6.53% for Regular Savings, 7.03% for MP2

President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. leads the announcement of Pag-IBIG Fund’s Regular and MP2 Savings 2022 Dividend Rates of 6.53% and 7.03%, respectively — both the highest since the pandemic. Joining him on stage are Pag-IBIG Fund Chairman and DHSUD Secretary Jose Rizalino Acuzar, and Pag-IBIG Fund CEO Marilene Acosta.

President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. lauded Pag-IBIG Fund’s highest dividend rates since the COVID-19 pandemic, as its Regular Savings dividend rate for 2022 reached 6.53% and its Modified Pag-IBIG 2 (MP2) Savings surged to 7.03% per annum.

The dividend rates on the members’ savings of the agency were the highlights of the Pag-IBIG Fund Chairman’s Report for 2022, where the President spoke before a gathering of agency members, partners and stakeholders at the SMX Convention Center on March 28.

“It makes me proud that your agency’s stewardship of our national savings program has successfully provided affordable shelter financing for our people. Let me thank all of you, the members who are the owners of Pag-IBIG Fund, including concerned housing developers, partners, and other key stakeholders who have been instrumental in fulfilling the Pag-IBIG Fund’s mandate, of serving the Filipino workforce,” the President said.

“As the Pag-IBIG Fund was established under the presidency of my father, I look forward to your efforts in continuing his legacy of quality public service into the future. I urge you to sustain the transparency and accountability in all the work that you do. Thus, we are able to maintain the public’s renewed trust in government. Let us ensure that the Pag-IBIG Fund remains at the forefront of fulfilling our peoples’ aspirations,” the chief executive added.

Pag-IBIG Fund posted its best performing year in 2022 as the agency’s net income reached a record-high P44.50 billion, a 28% increase from the P34.69 billion the year prior.

The agency also reported several record-high figures for the year, with home loans reaching P117.85 billion; total membership savings collected amounting to P79.90 billion and loan payments amounting to P127.42 billion.

Pag-IBIG Fund also assisted the highest number of members with 105,212 securing new homes from its housing loan programs and over 2.61 million aided through its short-term loans. The agency ended the year with total assets at its highest, amounting to P827.40 billion.

Secretary Jose Rizalino Acuzar of the Department of Human Settlements and Urban Development (DHSUD), who also heads the 11-member Pag-IBIG Fund Board of Trustees, explained that the dividend rates are the result of the agency’s record-high net income coupled with the highest dividend payout ratio approved by the Pag-IBIG Board.

Mr. Acuzar said that while the agency is required to give back to members only at least 70% of its annual net income as dividends, the Pag-IBIG Board approved a 97% payout ratio, resulting in a dividend amount to P42.70 billion — the highest in the agency’s history.

“We at Pag-IBIG do all that we can to keep the returns on our members’ savings high, while ensuring the Fund’s sustainability and stability. With Pag-IBIG Fund capably led by its CEO ‘Manang’ Malen Acosta having its best performing year in 2022, we were able to declare the highest amount of dividends for our members’ savings in our 42-year history,” the DHSUD chief said.

“Truly, when Pag-IBIG Fund performs well, it is our members who benefit the most. We assure our members that Pag-IBIG Fund shall be their reliable partner as they pursue a better and more secure future,” the Pag-IBIG Chairman noted.

 


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Hamilton coming to Manila in September

PHOTO BY DANIEL BOUD

The hit Broadway musical Hamilton will be making its Asian premiere in the Philippines in September, producers announced yesterday.

And in expectation that demand will be sky high, there is already waitlist open for the tickets, which will go on sale on April 24 through TicketWorldThe waitlist can be found at www.gmg-productions.com/hamilton and hamiltonmusical.com/international-tour.

The musical – which has won Tony, Grammy, and Olivier awards, and a Pulitzer Prize for Drama – will have a limited run at The Theatre at Solaire in Paranaque this September. 

This production of Hamilton premiered in Sydney, Australia in March 2021, with subsequent performances in Melbourne and BrisbaneThe international tour will start in Auckland, New Zealand in May. The production will then travel to Philippines for its Asian premiere with a cast drawn from performers all over the world. 

Hamilton’s fans from the Philippines have been telling us for years how much they want to see the show, many of them have travelled to see it all over the world. It is a thrill to, finally, be able to bring it to them,” said Michael Cassel, the producer of the international tour. “Hamilton is musical theater at its most innovative, original and transformative best. It is an absolute joy to be able to bring it to Asia for the first time and to assemble a cast of the best performers from all over the world to deliver it, he was quoted as saying in a statement. 

“We could not be more excited to be hosting Hamilton’s Asian premiere in Manila,” Carlos Candal, GMG Productions’ CEO, said. “We know we have a passionate Hamilton fan base who is absolutely thrilled that the show is coming later this year. We know Pinoy Hamilfans will not disappoint!” 

With a score that blends hip-hop, jazz, R&B, and Broadway, Lin-Manuel Miranda, who wrote the book, music, and lyrics of Hamilton, tells the story of one of America’s founding fathers, Alexander Hamilton, based on Ron Chernow’s acclaimed biography. 

The musical premiered on Broadway in August 2015 to wide critical and audience acclaim. 

The international tour is produced by Jeffrey Seller, Sander Jacobs, Jill Furman, The Public Theater and Michael Cassel. The Manila season is presented by GMG Productions.

As metal demand soars, can recycling keep net zero goals on track?

STOCK PHOTO | Image by Steve Buissinne from Pixabay

 – At a metal recycling facility in central England, thousands of tons of shredded scrap from cars to construction debris arrive daily to be processed into individual materials and sold.

A mixture of metals, plastics and other materials are sent through an elaborate maze of more than 100 conveyor belt systems where they are further separated in several different ways – from floatation in water to using magnets and robots.

These are just a few of the new technologies utilized by European Metal Recycling (EMR) at the site in Oldbury – a town near the city of Birmingham – as the global company strives not only to make its processes more efficient and profitable but also to do its bit for the environment.

Having started out eight decades ago with one scrapyardthe family-owned multinational firm has now set its sights on the difference it can make in the global green transition, by reducing the need to mine and refine metals.

“You sit there with some pride that you’re making products that have an impact,” said EMR chief executive Chris Sheppard.

“The need to move the world to net zero and ‘nature positive’ is effectively going to require something like the green industrial revolution,” he said.

As demand rises for clean technologies such as electric cars and solar panels, concerns about the environmental impacts of mining and producing the required metals are growing, from damage to biodiversity to rising emissions.

Recycling will prove ever more important as the global race to secure critical minerals heats up, insiders say, and as countries seek a secure supply for crucial metals while also trying to reduce the carbon footprint of their production.

In Europe, for example, 40% to 75% of the clean-energy-related metals needed for products like electric vehicles and wind turbines could be sourced through recycling by 2050 if the continent boosts investment in recycling and makes it more efficient, industry group Eurometaux said last year.

Meanwhile, production of steel – the world’s most widely used metal – is responsible for between 7-9% of the global carbon dioxide emissions that are the primary driver of climate change, according to the World Steel Association.

Using one ton of recycled steel instead of creating new steel avoids 1.5 tons of CO2 emissions, as well as mining 1.4 tons of iron ore, 740 kg of coal and 120 kg of limestone, according to Bellona, an environmental NGO.

However, the last comprehensive research into metal recycling rates – published in 2011 in the Journal of Industrial Ecology – found that only 18 out of 60 metals studied had global recycling rates above 50%.

Its lead author Thomas Graedel, an industrial ecologist at Yale University, said recycling metals has a “very important and underappreciated” part to play in the global green transition.

“We do very complicated things to get these materials into play in the first place,” he said. “Often we use them once and, in one way or another, they’re lost to technology.”

 

MODERN MATERIALS

Founded in the 1940s by Mr. Sheppard’s great-grandmother after she left wartime London and moved to northern England, EMR now has about 160 sites across the United States and Europe and had a turnover of about 4.7 billion pounds ($5.7 billion) in 2021.

As firms such as EMR seek to grow, a major challenge is the nature of modern materials used in products from smartphones to cars, because of how hard they are to break down and recycle.

Mr. Graedel of Yale cited a 2021 study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and US carmaker Ford that found that typical modern cars include 76 different chemical elements.

“I doubt that automobile designers have ever taken a trip to an auto recycling center,” he said.

“Maybe we don’t need to have the very best performance if the trade-off is more climate impact.”

EMR is investing in research aimed at recovering as many materials as possible, meaning the company can generate more profit while putting less waste into landfills – a practice that is costly and harmful for the environment.

“Everything we’re trying to do is to minimize the environmental impact,” said Andy Goodyer, general manager at EMR Oldbury.

Sheppard said the company is also in discussions with manufacturers – such as designers at car companies – to discuss how their products might be formulated in a way that ultimately makes them more straightforward to recycle.

“If they designed the cars with a view to the end of life … you’d be able to recycle them much easier,” he said.

 

END OF LIFE

Recycling processes for traditional metals like copper and aluminum are more established than those for metals required for the energy transition such as lithium and ‘rare earth’ metals, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Rare earth metals are used in low concentrations to make hi-tech devices – such as neodymium used to make powerful magnets for products like electric vehicles and wind turbines.

Many of these metals are hard to separate from surrounding materials and require new recycling technologies. Often there is a lack of information about how much of each material is used in products and where it is located, experts say.

Luca Ciacci, an industrial chemistry expert at Italy’s University of Bologna, said new techniques like material flow analysis can track the journey of a single element from extraction through production, use, and to the end of its life.

“So in this way we can get a reliable estimate of how much material is available for recycling and where it is,” he said.

These are “fundamental questions” for the development of the recycling industry, Mr. Ciacci added.

Experts also say recycling technologies and expertise need to be developed in the places where products reach their end of life, which is often on another continent – far from where they were built and where people understand how they were assembled.

“We need to get competent workers in recycling centers where products end up being used,” said Mr. Graedel from Yale.

“It is quite uneconomical and inefficient to send products around the world to be recycled.”

 

GREEN PREMIUMS

In the short-term, recycling will play only a minor role in meeting demand for some metals like lithium, as products containing them – such as lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles – are still early in their life-cycle, according to Jamie Speirs, an energy researcher at Imperial College London.

Speirs said strong government regulations can ensure recycling infrastructure develops in the meantime.

He gave the example of lead, which has some of the highest rates of recycling among metals due to regulations globally designed to stem health concerns around lead-acid batteries.

Analysts say another key driver of recycling growth is the prices companies such as EMR can command for their recycled materials, and the prices paid to those supplying scrap.

“It will come to you in greater volumes if the price is high,” said Mr. Sheppard.

EMR anticipates that green premiums will mean that recycled metals become cheaper – and ultimately more profitable for companies – than producing virgin materials, he explained.

“It’s really as simple as that,” he added. – Reuters

Nvidia shows new research on using AI to improve chip designs

The logo of technology company Nvidia is seen at its headquarters in Santa Clara, California February 11, 2015. — REUTERS/ROBERT GALBRAITH/FILE PHOTO

Nvidia Corp., the world’s leading designer of computer chips used in creating artificial intelligence, on Monday showed new research that explains how AI can be used to improve chip design.

The process of designing a chip involves deciding where to place tens of billions of tiny on-off switches called transistors on a piece of silicon to create working chips. The exact placement of those transistors has a big impact on the chip‘s cost, speed and power consumption.

Chip design engineers use complex design software from firms like Synopsys Inc. and Cadence Design Systems Inc . to help them optimize the placement of those transistors.

On Monday, Nvidia released a paper showing that it could use a combination of artificial intelligence techniques to find better ways to place big groups of transistors. The paper aimed to improve on a 2021 paper by Alphabet Inc’s. Google, whose findings later became the subject of controversy.

The Nvidia research took an existing effort developed by University of Texas researchers using what is called reinforcement learning and added a second layer of artificial intelligence on top of it to get even better results.

Nvidia chief scientist Bill Dally said the work is important because chip manufacturing improvements are slowing with per-transistor costs in new generations of chip manufacturing technology now higher than previous generations.

That goes against the famous prediction by Intel Corp. co-founder Gordon Moore that chips would always get cheaper and faster.

“You’re no longer actually getting an economy from that scaling,” Mr. Dally said. “To continue to move forward and to deliver more value to customers, we can’t get it from cheaper transistors. We have to get it by being more clever on the design.” – Reuters

China spent $240 bln bailing out ‘Belt & Road’ countries – study

LIN ZHIZHAO-UNSPLASH

 – China spent $240 billion bailing out 22 developing countries between 2008 and 2021, with the amount soaring in recent years as more have struggled to repay loans spent building “Belt & Road” infrastructure, according to a study published Tuesday.

Almost 80% of the rescue lending was made between 2016 and 2021, mainly to middle-income countries including Argentina, Mongolia and Pakistan, according to the report by researchers from the World Bank, Harvard Kennedy School, AidData and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

China has lent hundreds of billions of dollars to build infrastructure in developing countries, but lending has tailed off since 2016 as many projects have failed to pay the expected financial dividends.

“Beijing is ultimately trying to rescue its own banks. That’s why it has gotten into the risky business of international bailout lending,” said Carmen Reinhart, a former World Bank chief economist and one of the study‘s authors.

Chinese loans to countries in debt distress soared from less than 5% of its overseas lending portfolio in 2010 to 60% in 2022, the study found.

Argentina received the most, with $111.8 billion, followed Pakistan on $48.5 billion and Egypt with $15.6 billion. Nine countries received less than $1 billion.

People’s Bank of China (PBOC) swap lines accounted for $170 billion of the rescue financing, including in Suriname, Sri Lanka and Egypt. Bridge loans or balance of payments support by Chinese state-owned banks was $70 billion. Rollovers of both kinds of loan were $140 billion.

The study was critical of some central banks potentially using the PBOC swap lines to artificially pump up their foreign exchange reserve figures.

China‘s rescue lending is “opaque and uncoordinated,” said Brad Parks, one of the report’s authors, and director of AidData, a research lab at William & Mary College in the United States.

The bailout loans are mainly concentrated in the middle income countries that make up four-fifths of its lending, due to the risk they pose to Chinese banks’ balance sheets, whereas low income countries are offered grace periods and maturity extensions, the report said.

China is negotiating debt restructurings with countries including Zambia, Ghana and Sri Lanka and has been criticized for holding up the processes. In response, it has called on the World Bank and International Monetary Fund to also offer debt relief. – Reuters

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