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Deadline looms:  Around 10% of taxpayers yet to file annual income tax returns 

PHILIPPINE STAR/KRIZ JOHN ROSALES

AROUND 10% of registered taxpayers still have to file their 2022 annual income tax returns by the April 17 deadline, according to the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR).

“As of now, what we know is less than 10% (are still expected to file their taxes), [but] the turnout of filing has been okay,”  BIR Commissioner Romeo D. Lumagui, Jr. said in a press briefing on Friday.

“So far, our campaigns have been effective, better than pre-pandemic levels,” he added.

The agency expects to generate around P1.1 trillion from the annual tax filing, up by around 11-12% from last year’s collection.

The BIR said there are around 3.8 million individual registered taxpayers, not including businesses.

Taxpayers who do not make the Monday deadline will face penalties, such as an imposition of 12% interest and a 25% surcharge.

“We are well aware that filing and paying taxes can be a challenge for some taxpayers, that’s why we’re exploring ways to streamline processes and make it easier and more convenient for taxpayers to comply with their tax obligations,” Mr. Lumagui said.

The BIR has implemented initiatives to aid taxpayers in meeting the deadline, such as extending authorized agent bank working hours to 5:00 p.m., creating tax assistance centers, and expanding payment channels.

This year, the agency set a P2.6-trillion revenue target, 11% higher than the P2.34 trillion it collected last year.

The BIR collects about 70% of government revenues.—Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

BoI investment approvals hit P463 billion in Q1 

PHILIPPINE STAR/MICHAEL VARCAS

THE BOARD of Investments (BoI) has seen a 155% rise in approved investments for the first quarter (Q1) to P463.3 billion, with 68 approved projects, mainly in the renewable energy sector. 

Local investment approvals for the period showed a significant increase of 68%, amounting to P297.9 billion, compared to the P177.3 billion recorded in the same period last year, the BoI said in a statement on Friday.

Meanwhile, foreign investment approvals saw a massive surge of 3,722%, reaching P165.4 billion compared to P4.33 billion recorded last year.

The BoI is an investment promotion agency under the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI).

According to the BoI, the renewable energy sector had the highest investment approvals among sectors during the period, increasing by 156% to P440 billion, followed by manufacturing, which surged by 416% to P17 billion.

Other leading sectors in terms of investment approvals include administrative services at P3.7 billion, transportation and storage at P1.2 billion, and agriculture at P929 million. The investment approvals in the first quarter were expected to generate 16,719 local jobs.

Trade Secretary and BoI Chairman Alfredo E. Pascual said the first quarter investment approvals reflected the stronger investor interest in the Philippines.

The BoI is on track to meet its P1.5 trillion investment target for 2023, he noted.

“With investment prospects being very positive, and as we continue to receive serious interest from global investors, we are definitely on track to meeting our new annual investment target of P1.5 trillion,” Mr. Pascual said.

Among the top projects approved in the first quarter were the P392.4-billion offshore wind farm projects of German-owned wpd Philippines in Cavite, Negros Occidental, and Guimaras, followed by the P36.9-billion solar energy project of Filipino-owned Barracuda Energy Corp. in the Ilocos Region.

Mr. Pascual said the BoI is eyeing more investments in renewable energy following the amended implementing rules and regulations of Republic Act No. 9513, or the Renewable Energy Act, which allowed full foreign ownership in renewable energy projects.

“The number of renewable energy projects coming in is concrete evidence that we are on our way to becoming a global hub for sustainability and green projects, aligned with the national government’s policy of promoting cleaner and more sustainable sources of energy,” Mr. Pascual said.

On foreign investments, Germany contributed the most at P157 billion, followed by the Netherlands at P2.7 billion, the United States at P1.2 billion, Japan at P524 million, and the United Kingdom at P293 million.

Locally, investments in Western Visayas had the biggest share at P293.3 billion, followed by Calabarzon at P112.7 billion, Ilocos Region at P38.7 billion, Davao Region at P3.6 billion, and Eastern Visayas Region at P3.6 billion.

Mr. Pascual attributed the higher approved investments in the first quarter to the country’s economic performance.  The gross domestic product (GDP) in the first three months is seen to grow by 7.1%, he noted.

The GDP data is set to be released by the Philippine Statistics Authority on May 11.

“The steady growth is proof of the government’s resolve to further improve the country’s business environment through investment-friendly policies. We shall continue with our aggressive investment promotion campaigns as investments are also set to provide higher quality and better-paying jobs for Filipinos,” Mr. Pascual said. —Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

Consumers less pessimistic in first quarter — BSP

PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS

Consumers were less pessimistic in the first quarter due to their positive outlook on the availability of more jobs and permanent employment, higher income, and continued recovery from the public health crisis, according to the Philippine central bank.

The consumer confidence index (CI) fell 10.4% in the first three months of the year, better than the 14.6% drop in the previous quarter, according to a statement issued by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) on Friday.

This was, however, the 11th consecutive quarter of pessimism, or since the 54.5% drop in the third quarter of 2020.

BSP survey: Filipino consumers to spend more in Q2

The number of households with optimistic views increased, but this was still outnumbered by those with pessimistic views.

For the second quarter, the index remained positive but fell to 7.5% from 9.5% the previous quarter.

Meanwhile, consumer confidence for the next 12 months inched up to 22.7% from 21.7% in the previous quarter.

According to the BSP, consumer sentiment was less pessimistic across all income groups in the first quarter.

“Consumers cited that their improved outlook for Q1 2023 was due to their optimism about more available jobs and permanent employment; higher income from wages/salaries, remittances, and other sources; and positive developments in the country’s COVID-19 situation such as the relaxation of vaccination, testing, and masking requirements, fewer COVID-19 cases, and post-pandemic recovery of businesses as workers return to their office,” the BSP said.

Consumers expect rising interest rates, persistent inflation, and low unemployment rate in the near term.

“For Q1 and Q2 2023, and the next 12 months, consumers anticipate that the interest rate may increase, the peso may depreciate against the US dollar, and the unemployment rate may decline,” the central bank said.

“Consumers also expect that the inflation rate may rise for the reference periods. In particular, consumers are expecting that the inflation rate may average at 6.2% for the next 12 months, which is above the upper end of the National Government’s inflation target range of 2-4% for 2023-2024,” it added.

Inflation slowed to 7.6% in March from 8.6% in February. However, this still marked the 12th straight month that inflation breached the BSP’s target.

To tame inflation, the BSP has raised rates by 425 basis points since May 2022, bringing the benchmark rate to 6.25%.

The central bank interviewed 5,467 consumers for the survey, held between Jan. 19 to 31. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

Swinging Sixties fashion designer Mary Quant dies aged 93

Image source: https://bit.ly/408wfPq

LONDON – Fashion designer Mary Quant, often credited with popularizing the miniskirt that helped define Britain’s “Swinging Sixties” era, has died aged 93.

Born and brought up in Blackheath, south east London, Quant helped pioneer bold new styles during the 1960s – a decade in which fashion, music and art subculture challenged and forever changed Britain’s post-war national identity.

“It’s impossible to overstate Quant‘s contribution to fashion,” the Victoria and Albert Museum, which held a 2019 exhibition focused on her work, said in a statement.

“She represented the joyful freedom of 1960s fashion, and provided a new role model for young women. Fashion today owes so much to her trailblazing vision.”

A self-taught designer, Quant opened a west London boutique called Bazaar in the 1950s alongside her fashion entrepreneur husband Alexander Plunket Greene and their business partner.

Bazaar grew to be hugely popular by offering shoppers something drastically different to mainstream stores and high-end designers.

Her influence on fashion reached its height with the arrival of the miniskirt, whose above-the-knee hemline – often rising far above the knee – became a symbol of the rebellious youth culture and sexual liberation of a new generation.

Quant‘s own look was as compelling as her designs and she sported a famous trademark “bob” haircut.

In 1966 she was awarded an national honor for her contribution to the fashion industry, collecting the award from the Queen in a typically bold outfit – a short cream-colored dress and a beret – which caused a stir in the national press.

“A leader of fashion but also in female entrepreneurship – a visionary who was much more than a great haircut,” former British Vogue editor Alexandra Shulman wrote on Twitter. – Reuters

Summer Metro Manila Film Festival 2023: Tense, thrilling, full of talent

Romnick Sarmenta and Elijah Canlas in a scene from About Us But Not About Us.

By Brontë H. Lacsamana, Reporter 

Movie Review
About Us But Not About Us
Directed by Jun Robles Lana
MTRCB Rating: R13

It’s exciting to witness a Filipino film pulling off the challenge of having a few characters in a single location immersed in deep conversation. Given this minimalistic approach, the fact that About Us But Not About Us is able to keep you on the edge of your seat is a feat.

But the plot is a different story. It follows a literature professor and his student who meet at a restaurant for lunch. At first, it seems like the two men engaging in what looks like a controversial teacher-student relationship is already a juicy situation on its own. We eventually learn that that barely scratches the surface.

Things take darker and darker turns when the two characters continue speaking, about a person close to them who committed suicide, and later about secrets that they’re only now admitting to each other. This entire tense exchange takes place over the course of their meal.

Romnick Sarmenta (who won best actor at the MMFF Awards Night for playing Eric, the professor) and Elijah Canlas (who won a special jury prize for his role as Lance, the student) are understandably the stars of the show. They bring to life not just their own characters, but even the third character involved in their story who is not present. They throw sharp verbal blows at each other, and we, the captive audience, fully feel the impact.

Director Jun Robles Lana, already well-respected and acclaimed in the local movie industry for films like Barbers’ Tales and Big Night! definitely took a chance and tried something new, to very strong effect.

The film is technically masterful and riveting. It dominated the 1st Summer MMFF, bringing home 10 awards including best cinematography, screenplay, production design, editing, sound, musical score, and best director for Lana.

And deservedly so — cinematographer Neil Daza adjusts the camera to reflect the shifting psyches of each character as every twist is revealed. Editor Lawrence Ang and sound designers Fatima Salim and Immanuel Verona help build the tension as ordinary moments melt into thrilling exchanges.

The dialogue is believable for a conversation involving talented writers in academia, even veering towards slightly annoying in its endless glorification of literary achievement. Like, who just throws the phrase “The Next Great Filipino Novel” around? This makes it look like being in a Creative Writing department automatically makes one full of yourself and it successfully alienates people who aren’t literary minded.

Besides that, it’s technically a commendable feat. All the detail put into the film is proof that Lana’s take on 12 Angry Men and My Dinner With Andre, which are highly praised “single-location conversation films,” is a worthwhile addition to the genre.

This film, however, runs into a propblem that the other two don’t — the concept of mindful representation. It’s an issue that matters to the Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Trans Plus (LGBT+) movement. With many people in the world already wary, judgmental, or worse, downright hostile towards the LGBT+ community, should there be representations of problematic gay people who are unable to solve their issues?

What’s interesting is that this is even brought up by the third character, Marcus, who isn’t physically present in the film, but who is breathed into life by the excellent career-best combo of Sarmenta and Canlas. The three main characters have many issues and badly need therapy, much like many people in the world regardless of sexuality, but their role in this world is a weighty one.

Though the film suggests that problematic gays on film can be portrayed in complex, nuanced, and intriguing ways, perhaps it would have been even more of a win if this concluded on a less defeatist note.

US, Mexico agree to ramp up fight against fentanyl and arms trafficking

MEXICO CITY – Mexico and the United States on Thursday agreed to ramp up the fight against fentanyl trafficking, as well as Mexico‘s Sinaloa and CJNG drug cartels and their supply chains, in joint bid to reduce consumption of the powerful opioid.

The deal came after a meeting of officials from both countries in Washington.

Both countries have in recent weeks asked China to help curb the shipment of precursor chemicals coming from the Asian country, in order to prevent production of the synthetic drug responsible for thousands of deaths in the United States.

“That’s our goal,” said Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard in a video released by his office, without mentioning the origin of these chemicals.

The White House said this week it plans to expand efforts to disrupt the illicit financial activities of drug traffickers involved in the fentanyl trade by using more sanctions to obstruct their access to the US financial system.

Mr. Ebrard said the Mexican delegation also asked Washington for a task force to monitor and “substantially” reduce the flow of arms from the United States to Mexico.

Mexico is appealing in a $10 billion civil lawsuit seeking to hold US gun makers responsible for facilitating the trafficking of deadly weapons across the border to local drug cartels. It argues that combating this is a shared responsibility. – Reuters

World Bank’s new boss must push ahead on reforms, fight poverty-French minister

REUTERS

WASHINGTON – France’s development minister said on Thursday she will tell the World Bank’s expected next president, Ajay Banga, to maintain the bank’s anti-poverty mission while forging ahead with next steps by October in its evolution to fight climate change and other global crises.

Chrysoula Zacharopoulou told Reuters in an interview that she wants Banga, the former CEO of Mastercard, to use an international finance summit in Paris to develop ideas and plans for expanding climate finance and harnessing private sector funds.

Ms. Zacharopoulou, a Greek-born gynecologist and former European Parliament member who was appointed France’s Minister of State for Development, Francophonie and International Partnerships 11 months ago, is due to meet with Banga on Friday during World Bank and International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington.

“What I am going to tell him – or what I’m going to encourage him – is that he will have our support in his mission to finalize an ambitious reform of the World Bank by Marrakech, using the June summit in Paris like an important step,” Ms. Zacharopoulou said, referring to the World Bank and International Monetary Fund annual meetings in Morocco in October.

“This is the first thing. The second is that we have to continue to fight extreme poverty,” she said. “That means the poorest countries and their populations have to remain at the center of the agenda of the World Bank and of all of us.”

France on June 22-23 is hosting the “Summit for a New Global Financial Pact,” which aims to boost crisis financing for vulnerable countries in the Global South.

Ms. Zacharopoulou said the conference would focus on ways to create innovative new financing resources for climate change, public health, biodiversity and other public goods and to build political momentum for changes beyond a $5 billion annual lending increase adopted this week by World Bank shareholders.

 

DE-RISKING INVESTMENTS

Ms. Zacharopoulou said that there was a major focus on bringing in private sector funds to scale up climate financing to the vast amounts needed to meet emissions reduction goals.

“Public money has a role to play in de-risking investments in the most vulnerable countries. We can use the public money to de-risk but the private sector has to come,” she said.

Mr. Banga was a “good match” for the World Bank job, with strong private sector finance and management experience. Because he was born and educated in India, “He knows well about the challenges of emerging and developing countries.”

But Mr. Banga, who has promised to deliver more lending resources beyond the initial balance sheet changes, will attend the Paris finance summit only a few weeks after he is expected to start in early June.

Ms. Zacharopoulou said Mr. Banga would be able to build on the work of World Bank staff who advanced the bank’s initial reform steps in just six months.

“Starting from this important moment, he has some momentum to put his signature on it and give his vision,” she said. “I think that he will have all of the international community with him.” – Reuters

US says Photoshop maker Adobe to pay $3 million to settle kickback allegations

Adobe Logo

WASHINGTON – Photoshop maker Adobe Inc. has agreed to pay $3 million to settle US kickback allegations involving federal software sales, the US Justice Department said in a statement on Thursday.

The settlement resolves allegations that Adobe made improper payments under its Solution Partner program to companies that had a contractual or other relationship with the government that allowed them to influence federal purchases of Adobe software, the Justice Department said.

Between January 2011 and December 2020, Adobe allegedly paid the companies a percentage of the purchase price of the software, according to the Justice Department.

The United States contends that these payments constituted prohibited kickbacks that resulted in Adobe causing false claims for payment to be submitted to federal agencies.

The company said on Thursday that it had cooperated with the government since it began its probe in 2018 and was pleased “to have this matter behind us.”

“Those who do business with the government are prohibited from paying kickbacks, which can result in unnecessary purchases and increase costs to taxpayers,” said Brian Boynton, head of the Justice Department’s civil division.

“We will continue to use all appropriate tools to safeguard the integrity of the federal procurement process,” Boynton said. – Reuters

Russia says Black Sea grain deal may be nearly over

STOCK PHOTO | Image by Couleur from Pixabay

MOSCOW – Russia on Thursday said there would be no extension of the UN-brokered Black Sea grain deal beyond May 18 unless the West removed a series of obstacles to the export of Russian grain and fertilizer.

The Ukraine grain Black Sea export deal was brokered by the United Nations and Turkey in July last year to help alleviate a global food crisis worsened by conflict disrupting exports from two of the world’s leading grain suppliers.

“Without progress on solving five systemic problems … there is no need to talk about the further extension of the Black Sea initiative after May 18,” the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement.

“We note that, despite all the high-sounding statements about global food security and assistance to countries in need, the Black Sea Initiative both served and continues to serve exclusively commercial exports of Kyiv in the interests of Western countries,” the ministry said.

To help persuade Russia to allow Ukraine to resume its Black Sea grain exports last year, a separate three-year agreement was also struck in July in which the United Nations agreed to help Russia with its food and fertilizer exports.

Russia said the two agreements were “interconnected parts of one ‘package'”, and scolded the UN Secretariat for what it said was a distortion of the facts.

UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said “discussions, communications are still going on with the parties” and that UN officials were determined to ensure the implementation of both deals.

He said in relation to Russia‘s exports “there’s still a lot of critical issues that need to be resolved over payments and other technical issues” that UN officials were trying to fix.

But he noted that “there’s been some concrete results that contribute to larger grain trade volumes, lower freight rates and an increased number of ships that have called at Russian ports for fertilizer and lowering in insurance.”

“So we’ve made some progress, but we continue to push to make more,” Dujarric said.

 

RUSSIAN DEMANDS

Western powers have imposed tough sanctions on Russia over its Feb. 24, 2022, invasion of Ukraine. Its food and fertilizer exports are not sanctioned, but Moscow says restrictions on payments, logistics and insurance are a barrier to shipments.

The foreign ministry said Russian Agricultural Bank (Rosselkhozbank) had to be reconnected to the SWIFT payment system, that supplies of agricultural machinery and parts needed to be resumed and that restrictions on insurance and reinsurance needed to be lifted.

Other demands include access to ports, the resumption of the Togliatti-Odesa ammonia pipeline that lets Russia pump the chemical to Ukraine’s port, and the unblocking of assets and the accounts of Russian companies involved in food and fertilizer exports.

“The removal of obstacles to domestic agricultural exports was supposed to take place within the framework of the implementation of the Russia-UN Memorandum,” the ministry said.

Russia said there had been a failure of the inspection regime of ships carrying grain from Ukraine.

“Currently, 28 vessels carrying more than 1 million tons of food are awaiting inspection in the territorial waters of Turkey,” the foreign ministry said.

It accused UN staff in the Joint Coordination Center of refusing to draw up an inspection schedule.

“In turn, an even more difficult situation has developed around the registration of bulk carriers,” the ministry said, denying that Russia was responsible for any of the congestion and accusing Ukrainian port officials of accepting bribes to accelerate registration.

Blinken seeking to upgrade Vietnam ties as Hanoi treads narrow path

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Official White House — CAMERON SMITH VIA FLICKR

HANOI – US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken visits Vietnam this week hoping for progress towards upgrading relations with a key trade partner that shares US worries about China’s growing might.

For Hanoi, it will be a delicate test: how to show openness to the United States without angering China, a giant neighbor that supplies key inputs for Vietnam’s vital export trade, or Russia, another traditional partner.

It is a balancing act Vietnam has excelled at but one that is turning more complex in a world appearing to divide into opposing blocs, with the US and its allies on one side and China and Russia on the other.

Blinken arrives in Hanoi on Friday and will meet Vietnamese leaders on Saturday before heading to Tokyo for a meeting of the Group of Seven rich nations.

It will be the first Hanoi visit by the secretary of state of the Biden administration, which took office in 2021, although Vice President Kamala Harris visited in August of that year.

Washington will be hoping for progress towards boosting relations to a “strategic” partnership from one that for the past decade has been called “comprehensive.”

Officials have not said what this closer relationship might entail. But Southeast Asia expert Murray Hiebert, who visited Vietnam in February and spoke with senior government officials, said it could include increased military cooperation and U.S. weapons supplies.

He noted, however, there were limits given Vietnam’s policy of not allowing foreign bases, foreign troops or alliances against other countries. Hanoi has also been put off by the relatively high price of US arms and concerns that supplies could be blocked by U.S. lawmakers on human rights grounds.

Blinken will also formally break ground on a new U.S. embassy compound in Hanoi, in what the top US diplomat for East Asia, Daniel Kritenbrink, called “a stunning new symbol” of the US commitment to an “enduring partnership and friendship.”

With the Vietnam War era an increasingly distant memory, Washington now considers Hanoi, in Mr. Kritenbrink’s words, “one of America’s most important partners in the region”.

 

BALANCING BEIJING AND WASHINGTON

Experts say the US broached formally elevating ties during the Trump administration, but Hanoi was resistant and has wavered amid escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing, which could react badly to the move.

Vietnam, while alarmed by China’s growing military and opposed to its rival claims in the South China Sea, has its vital economic ties with Beijing to consider.

Even so, Hanoi now appears amenable to upgraded ties with the US, Hiebert and other analysts say, although no announcement is expected during Blinken’s trip and will likely be saved for a higher-level exchange.

Last month saw a call between US President Joe Biden and the head of Vietnam’s ruling Communist party Nguyen Phu Trong, which together with Blinken’s visit could lead to a meeting between the two in July, the 10th anniversary of the existing formal bilateral partnership, analysts say.

“The chance of the United States and Vietnam upgrading their comprehensive partnership to a strategic level is higher with Blinken’s visit because it will pave the way for a higher level meeting,” said Bich Tran, an adjunct fellow at Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Mr. Kritenbrink said Washington was working to persuade Vietnam to diversify defense purchases away from Russia, something that “obviously would be in Vietnam’s interests and also would conform to US law.”

Human rights is another sensitive area, and hours ahead of Blinken’s arrival a State Department spokesperson condemned Vietnam’s jailing of a prominent political activist and said the bilateral partnership could only reach its full potential if the country improved its human rights record.

On Thursday, Human Rights Watch called on Mr. Blinken to “publicly and privately urge Vietnam’s leadership to end its systemic abuse of freedom of expression, association, and peaceful assembly.”

Mr. Kritenbrink said he was “confident” Mr. Blinken would raise rights concerns in Hanoi. – Reuters

NFA seeks 330,000 T of rice imports as buffer stocks thin

PHILSTAR

THE PHILIPPINES’ National Food Authority (NFA) has proposed importing 330,000 tonnes of rice to cover an expected deficit in its buffer stock, as the government seeks to curb the cost of the staple grain and limit upward pressure on inflation.

The state grains agency needs to beef up its buffer stocks for emergency relief operations, but ramping up its purchases from local farmers could push domestic prices higher, the presidential palace said in a statement on Friday.

Domestic rice prices have crept higher, with the cheapest variety now selling at P36-44 ($0.65-$0.80) per kilogram, up from P35-38 at the start of the year, government data showed.

Inflation eased in March to 7.6%, but was still well outside the official 2%-4% target.

The government is now looking at non-monetary measures to address price pressures, while the central bank has signaled a pause in interest rate hikes.

The Philippines’ year-end rice inventory is estimated at 1.69 million tonnes, equivalent to a 45-day buffer stock, just half of the ideal 90-day stock needed to stabilize prices, the statement said.

President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr, who is also the agriculture secretary, said he was looking at “all measures” to curb rice prices.

“We will plan if there’s a need to import, to extend and increase the NFA’s buffer stock, which is already too low,” he said.

The NFA is seeking a government-to-government arrangement for the rice importation. At present, only private traders are allowed to import rice, while the NFA’s function has been limited to stocking of the emergency buffer.

Under the law, however, the presidential office or its designated agency can decide to bring in rice for NFA’s stockpiling.

The Philippines is one of the world’s biggest rice buyers, usually importing most of its requirements from Vietnam. It also buys some volumes from Thailand, India and other producers in Asia.—Reuters

Easing prices may spur BSP rate cuts

PHILIPPINE STAR/WALTER BOLLOZOS

By Keisha B. Ta-asan, Reporter

WASHINGTON, D.C. — The Philippine central bank may cut the key policy rate this year if inflation continues to ease in the next six months, according to its chief.

“We already have two very low month-on-month [inflation],” BSP Governor Felipe M. Medalla told reporters on the sidelines of an economic briefing in Washington D.C. on Wednesday evening (Manila time). “If that continues, then there’s a reason to pause.”

“If April has a similar pattern, then we have four more of that, five more of that, we can even talk about cuts,” he said. If inflation eases month on month by 0.2 point in the next six months, “why not?”

Inflation slowed for a second month to 7.6% in March from 8.6% in February, the slowest in six months. It averaged 8.3% in the first quarter, higher than the central bank’s full-year forecast of 6% and its 2-4% target.

“We will need more good data points for cuts,” Mr. Medalla said. “For a pause, just one more [month], because we already have two very good data points.”

The Monetary Board has raised borrowing costs by 425 bps since May last year — including the 25-basis-point hike last month — bringing the benchmark rate to 6.25%, the highest since 2007.

At the economic briefing, Mr. Medalla said the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) would revise its inflation projections this year to less than 6%.

“The main reason for the revision is that the most recent inflation number from March is at the low end of the forecast range. That affects the forecast,” he said.

The 7.6% inflation in March was within the BSP’s 7.4-8.2% forecast. The central bank expects full-year inflation to average 6% this year before easing to 2.9% next year.

But rising global oil prices could still affect the country’s inflation, Mr. Medalla said.

Global oil prices spiked earlier this month after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies including Russia announced further output cuts of about 1.16 million barrels per day from May through the rest of the year.

Meanwhile, Mr. Medalla said he is not worried about the effects of the African Swine Fever (ASF) because it should soon wane.

The infectious hog disease has been affecting 21 provinces, 54 towns and cities and 137 villages in the Philippines, according to the Bureau of Animal Industry.

Last month, the bureau confirmed an outbreak in Cebu after 58 of 149 blood samples taken from hogs in Carcar City were found infected.

The flu was first detected in the Philippines in 2019, leading to the culling of thousands of pigs and prompting the government to boost meat imports.

FOOD SHORTAGES
The BSP might cut policy rates by the fourth quarter to support economic growth, said Domini S. Velasquez, chief economist at China Banking Corp.

“Inflation for 2024 looks to be firmly within target and the BSP can already start cutting rates by the end of the year to support economic growth; especially since we expect the gross domestic product to moderate this year and next year,” she said in a Viber message.

The government is targeting 6-7% growth for this year, slower than 7.6% in 2022.

But low month-on-month inflation will have to come from nonmonetary interventions, Ms. Velasquez said. “We’re seeing risks that need to be addressed proactively such as seeming food shortages again (garlic, onion) and the impact of the ASF. A lot relies on initiatives of the new interagency committee on inflation and market outlook.”

President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. last month formed a committee on inflation that would ensure food and energy security. The body is co-headed by the chiefs of the National Economic and Development Authority and the Department of Finance.

The central bank has room to pause the rate increase at their May meeting, said Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa, senior economist at ING Bank N.V. in Manila.

“The delayed impact of previous tightening has yet to filter through to the rest of the economy but already, we’ve seen its toll on bank lending, which has slowed considerably despite a solid economic growth momentum,” he said in an e-mail.

Bank lending slowed for a third straight month in February as outstanding loans by big banks eased by 10% to P10.69 trillion from a month earlier. It was also the slowest credit growth in 11 months.

The central bank must ensure that inflation slows to its 2-4% target and inflation expectations are controlled before they consider easing policy, Mr. Mapa said.

“Stringing together six straight months of low month-on-month inflation could be possible although we do recognize that supply side issues remain very apparent, such as the resurgence of the African Swine Fever and storms,” he said.

“The BSP will thus likely be looking at the type of inflationary pressures, making sure to distinguish between cost push and supply-side pressures, while also ensuring that inflation expectations are reanchored,” he added.

The local statistics agency will release April inflation data on May 5. The Monetary Board will meet on May 18 to discuss policy.

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