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Local shares rebound on improved sentiment

LOCAL STOCKS climbed on Thursday on improved market sentiment amid strong corporate financial results.

The bellwether Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) rose by 43.44 points or 0.66% to close at 6,583.68 on Thursday, while the broader all shares index went up by 16.60 points or 0.47% to 3,508.86.

“The market was up due to upbeat corporate earnings, First Metro Investment Corp. Head of Research Cristina S. Ulang said in a Viber message.

“PSEi ended in green as sustained positive sentiment on Philippine banks along with an improving outlook on the country’s infrastructure sector outweighed the pressure from rising recession fears abroad,” Unicapital Securities, Inc. Senior Equity Research Analyst Carlos Angelo O. Temporal said.

Mr. Temporal said developments related to EEI Corp. and Metro Pacific Investments Corp. boosted the outlook for public-private partnerships and the government’s infrastructure spending.

“This boosted sentiment on banks given the potential upside of this to loan growth,” he added.

“Nevertheless, general sentiment remains cautious… as investors continue to gauge the odds of a global recession, anticipating April’s inflation data and the Fed’s meeting next month,” Mr. Temporal said.

April Philippine inflation data will be released on May 5.

Headline inflation eased to 7.6% in March from 8.6% in February. This was the slowest since the 6.9% print in September 2022.

For the first quarter, the consumer price index averaged 8.3%, higher than the central bank’s forecast of 6% and the 2-4% target for the year.   

Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve will meet to review policy on May 2-3.

Markets are expecting the Fed to raise its target interest rate by another 25 basis points (bps) next week.

The US central bank has hiked rates by 475 bps since March 2022, with the fed funds rate now at 4.75-5%.

Back home, the majority of sectoral indices closed higher on Thursday, except for mining and oil, which fell by 230.30 points or 2.12% to 10,603.03.

Meanwhile, financials went up by 41.60 points or 2.2% to 1,927.02; services increased by 15.51 points or 0.96% to 1,620.02; industrials rose by 43.87 points or 0.47% to 9,352.11; holding firms climbed by 8.60 points or 0.13% to 6,324.33; and property added 3.2 points or 0.11% to end at 2,708.50.

Value turnover fell to P4.69 billion on Thursday with 549.17 million shares changing hands, from the P5.45 billion with 766.97 million issues traded on Wednesday.

Decliners and advancers were split at 90 apiece, while 48 names closed unchanged.

Net foreign buying stood at P79.48 million on Thursday versus the P192.87 million in net selling on Wednesday. — AHH

Peso drops further due to month-end dollar demand

BW FILE PHOTO

THE PESO declined further against the dollar on Thursday due to month-end corporate demand for the greenback.

The local currency closed at P55.72 versus the dollar on Thursday, depreciating by 10 centavos from Wednesday’s P55.62 finish, data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines’ website showed.

The local unit opened Thursday’s session at P55.68 per dollar, which was also its intraday best. Its worst showing for the day was at P55.81 versus the greenback.

Dollars traded went down to $1.186 billion on Thursday from the $1.23 billion recorded on Wednesday.

“The peso weakened versus the dollar for the second straight day on suspected month-end corporate demand,” a trader said in a Viber message.

Market concerns over First Republic Bank after its stock price reached a new low also continued to pull the peso down, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

Troubles at US lender First Republic Bank continued to unnerve investors amid concerns that growth in the world’s biggest economy could surprise on the downside, Reuters reported.

Overnight, the woes of First Republic continued, with its market value briefly sinking as much as 41% to about $888 million, a far cry from its peak of more than $40 billion in November 2021.

Investors are waiting to see whether it can find buyers for assets and engineer a turnaround after CNBC reported that US government officials are currently unwilling to intervene.

The local unit also weakened as the markets awaited local budget balance data and US gross domestic product and personal consumption expenditures reports, Mr. Ricafort added.

For Friday, the trader sees the peso trading between P55.50 and P55.75 against the dollar, while Mr. Ricafort expects it to move from P55.60 to P55.80. — AMCS with Reuters

Metro Manila office vacancies seen peaking at 21% this year

STOCK PHOTO | Image by Yibei Geng from Unsplash

THE vacancy rate for Metro Manila office property in the first quarter is expected to peak later in the year, with rents under pressure because of evolving workplace practices and additional supply coming onto the market, Colliers Philippines said.

“Despite more optimistic forecasts from industry groups, headwinds continue to pose challenges to the office market, which could further derail our projected recovery in terms of net absorption, vacancy, and lease rates,” Colliers said.

In a report, Colliers said vacancies in the first quarter were little changed at 18.7% from 18.8% in the fourth quarter of 2022. Colliers expects vacancies to hit 21% by year’s end, exceeding its previous estimate of 20.2%, due to slow take-up.

Demand for condominium units is improving due to better take-up from professionals and expatriates.

“Rents and prices are still recovering. We saw a contraction in 2020 and 2021 due to the impact of the pandemic. We will likely see slower completion or muted deliveries of new residential units over the next 12 months,” Joey Roi Bondoc, research director at Colliers, said during a briefing on Thursday.

In its report, Colliers said vacancies in the Metro Manila secondary market was little changed to 17.4% from 17.6% a quarter earlier.

Colliers expects vacancies in the secondary market to drop to 16.8% this year as business sentiment improves.

“Upscale to luxury developments will likely remain popular and developers should explore forging joint venture deals for condominium projects that cater to an affluent and discerning market,” Colliers said. — Ashley Erika O. Jose 

House committee approves land use bill

TIM MOSSHOLDER-UNSPLASH

A HOUSE panel approved a bill on Thursday which seeks to systematically identify and determine the best use of land.

The proposed National Land Use Act will guide “communities to make informed decisions about how their land is used,” Nueva Ecija Rep. Rosanna V. Vergara, who chaired the technical working group that made adjustments to the bill, told the committee.

She added that the bill will help local governments and land users “identify and prioritize land use policies and projects that align with their unique needs and aspirations.”

The unnumbered substitute bill seeks to create the National Land Use Commission (NLUC) under the office of the President. It will have the authority to resolve land use conflicts between or among agencies, branches, or levels of government. The NLUC will take over the current powers of the National Land Use Committee, which will be abolished.

The NLUC is tasked with drafting the National Physical Framework Plan (NPFP), which will guide the planning and management of the country’s land and other physical resources. It will contain “broad spatial direction and policy guidelines on settlements development, production and protection land use, social services and utilities, transmission line corridor, and transportation and communication,” according to the bill.

The NPFP is to have a 30-year time horizon and will be updated every 10 years.

The bill covers all land and natural resources whether public, private, government-owned, or owned by any person, whether natural or juridical.

It calls for a 5% idle land tax on any person or entity that causes irrigated land to go idle or remain unproductive for more than a year. If the land remains unproductive for two years, it will revert to the State.

Local government units (LGUs) are directed to create their own Comprehensive Land Use Plan (CLUP), which must contain maps to serve as a guide for future use of land and natural resources. LGUs are liable to sanction and penalty if they fail to implement their CLUPs.

Mary Ann De Vera, chief for policy research and legal office of the League of Municipalities of the Philippines, said that measure should “take into consideration the individual situations of these LGUs,” and how they are “not similarly situated in terms of finances, manpower and resources.”

Congress may authorize the reversion of alienable and disposable land in the public domain to forest land, unless they are covered by title or are occupied.

Robert Nomar V. Leyretana, officer-in-charge administrator of the Land Registration Authority, said the bill must list the rights of owners of private property. “What will be the consequential right of these private property owners?” he told the committee. “It always has to be subject to (their) vested right.”

Mr. Leyretana proposed the creation of a single base map for the Philippines. “Conflicts in land rights largely stem from boundary conflicts because all agencies have their own base maps,” he said.

Special areas of concern listed in the bill are forest land and watersheds, coastal zones, settlement development sites, National Integrated Protected Areas System sites, agricultural land, energy resources, industrial development areas, tourism development areas, and infrastructure.

Cities or municipalities must also designate adequate land for housing or residential use “for the immediate and future needs of the local population as well as the underprivileged and homeless in their territory,” according to section 48 of the bill.

In a statement, Assistant Minority Leader and Gabriela Party-list Rep. Arlene D. Brosas said she sees the possibility of heightened conversion of lands into subdivisions or corporate housing projects instead of ensuring that land will be used for food production.

The bill protects agricultural land necessary for attaining food security will be protected from conversion, subject to review by the Department of Agriculture every six years. Conversion of land for use in basic services such as power and irrigation will be allowed on the recommendation of the Secretaries of Agriculture and Agrarian Reform.

In his State of the Nation Address, President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. said the measure “holds owners accountable for making these lands productive and sustainable.”

The bill is included in the Legislative Executive Development Advisory Council’s common legislative agenda. The House of Representatives aims to pass the bill on second reading when session resumes on May 8. — Beatriz Marie D. Cruz

Palay output growth estimated at 5.7% in Q1

REUTERS

OUTPUT of palay (unmilled rice) is estimated to have risen 5.7% year on year in the first quarter, running below initial forecasts, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).

In a report, the PSA estimated palay production at 4.79 million metric tons (MT), based on the standing crop as of Feb. 1.

The estimate is 1.1% lower than the initial forecast of 4.84 million MT issued on Jan. 1.

During the quarter, the agency projected the area planted to rice to have increased 3.3% to 1.18 million hectares, with an assumed yield per hectare of palay at 4.06 MT, up 2%.

“About 236 thousand hectares or 20% of the 1,117.85 thousand hectares updated harvest area as of standing crop had been harvested as of Feb. 1, 2023,” the PSA said.

Farmers are expected to have harvested 917.59 thousand MT of palay across 236.06 thousand hectares of farmland.

Of the standing crop, 7.6% is in the vegetative stage, 48.1% in the reproductive stage, and 44.3% in the maturing stage.

The PSA also reported that corn output in the first quarter likely reached 2.56 million MT, up 4.9% from a year earlier.

According to a forecast issued on Jan. 1, corn output is expected to fall 0.1% to 2.56 million MT.

The estimated area planted to corn during the quarter is estimated to have fallen 2.9% year on year to 690.72 thousand hectares, with an assumed yield per hectare of 3.71 MT.

“From the area harvested as of Feb. 1, 2023 of 206.38 thousand hectares, actual production was recorded at 709.74 thousand metric tons,” the agency said.

Of the standing corn crop planted across 484.35 thousand hectares, 5% is at the vegetative stage, 49.9% at the reproductive stage, and 45.1% at the maturing stage. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera

Palace calls NSCR an engine for job creation, regional dev’t

PHILIPPINE STAR/EDD GUMBAN

PRESIDENT Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. touted the job-creation potential of the 147-kilometer (km) North-South Commuter Railway (NSCR) project, after witnessing the contract signing on Thursday.

He was speaking at the ceremonial signing of the North-South Commuter Railway Project-South Commuter Section Contract Packages (CPs) S-02 and S-03B at the Palace.

CP S-02 involves the construction of track and stations along España, Sta. Mesa and Paco, Manila, while CP S-03B involves building a tunnel linking the NSCR with the Metro Manila Subway Project.

CP S-02 is a component of the South Commuter Railway Project (SCRP), a section of the NSCR.

“As the civil works for these contract packages commence, we expect not only the generation of more than 2,000 jobs, but also the creation of other opportunities and livelihood during its construction,” Mr. Marcos said in his speech.

The completion of the full NSCR project will lead to the “decongestion of our main thoroughfares, especially within Metro Manila,” he said.

Mr. Marcos said the railway system will also spur economic activity in the connected regions. It will also “promote environmental sustainability and public health.”

The P873-billion NSCR project, which is being co-financed by the Japanese International Cooperation Agency, connects Clark in Central Luzon and Calamba City, Laguna.

The line will have 35 stations and three depots, according to the Presidential Communications Office (PCO).

“CPs S-02 and S-03b are part of the SCRP,” it said. CPs S-02 and S-03b, which will be financed by the Asian Development Bank, were awarded on Feb. 17 and Feb. 20, respectively.

Upon completion in 2029, the NSCR system will carry 800,000 passengers daily, cutting the travel time between Clark International Airport and Calamba City, Laguna, to two hours from four.

The 55.6 km-SCRP, on the other hand, will have 19 stations and one depot at Barangay Banlic, Calamba City.

It will reduce travel time between Blumentritt, Manila and Calamba City, Laguna to one hour and 12 minutes from two hours and 30 minutes.

“Estimated to generate 35,000 construction jobs upon implementation, the civil works for the SCRP are targeted to commence by June 2023,” the PCO said. — Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza

Commercial farms deemed best placed to lead hog repopulation

REUTERS

BACKYARD HOG growers will find the government’s swine repopulation program too burdensome to implement, while commercial farms will require minimal investment to comply with new biosecurity rules, an industry official said.

Ibigay sa maraming mga private commercial farms kasi (the bulk of the repopulation program should go to commercial farms because) they already have the facilities, so all they need to invest on is the retrofitting,” according to Alfred Ng, vice-president of Hog Farmers, Inc., speaking on the sidelines of the 29th National Hog Convention.

Mr. Ng said that the federation issued a position paper last month proposing a focus on commercial farms to accelerate the repopulation effort.

“What we are suggesting is 70% goes to commercial farms while 30% goes to the backyard because they also need to help them,” he said.

The government’s repopulation program is known as the Integrated National Swine Production Initiatives for Recovery and Expansion program, run by the Department of Agriculture. The program will issue grants of P10 million per farm, recently raised from P5.5 million.

Eligible for the grants are qualified farmer cooperatives and associations with a minimum of 2,000 square meters to establish a new biosecure facility.

The grants allocate P6 million for facilities, which must include a perimeter fence, climate-controlled animal house, waste management systems, and other equipment.

Some P2.4 million will go towards the procurement of 300 animals, P1.5 million for feed and biological support, and P100,000 for other items such as disinfectants.

Apart from piglets, Mr. Ng said that the program should also include distribution of breeders to deter farmers from engaging in flip sales of piglets.

Mr. Ng said many backyard farms cannot afford to maintain such facilities due to energy costs. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera

Revised JV guidelines outline rules for adjusting tolls, fees

THE National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) has released the revised guidelines for joint venture (JV) agreements between government and private entities, which set the rules for approving proposed adjustments to tolls and fees.

Under the revised guidelines, tolls, fees, rentals, tariffs that a JV may charge for the use of a facility or service will be subject to regulatory approval, guided by a formula agreed upon in the joint venture contract.

“The tolls, fees, rentals, tariffs, and charges may be subject to adjustment during the life of the JV agreement, based on an approved formula/adjustment schedule in the approved JV Agreement,” according to the new guidelines.

The regulator or local government unit must also consult the regulator or seek approval, or both, for the formula.

“The monitoring of the consistency of the proposed adjustments of tolls, fees, rentals, tariffs, and charges with the prescribed rate of return, if any, shall be undertaken by the appropriate regulatory body or the government entity,” it added.

In case the regulator does not approve the toll or fee adjustment, the agency or local government unit may allow the project proponent to recover the difference between the tolls or fees stipulated in the JV agreement and the amount approved by the regulator through measures allowed in the JV agreement and consistent with the applicable laws. 

NEDA Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said that the revised guidelines will improve the regulatory environment for investment.

“The amendments have been designed to enhance competition for projects under joint ventures, enhance the performance of private sector participants, and strengthen checks and balances to ensure the technical and financial viability of government projects. These changes aim to address recurring issues that have been observed in past JV projects,” he said in a statement.

The guidelines came into effect on April 25. In March, the NEDA Board approved the latest revision. The rules were last revised in 2013.

The amendments are also aligned with the amended implementing rules and regulations of the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) Law and the proposed amendments to the BOT Law, according to NEDA.

Under the revised guidelines, a government entity may enter a JV if it is deemed better value for money for the government than if the project were pursued via other modes of delivery.

“Open and fair competition will be observed during the JV selection process and award,” it added.

The guidelines also note that the formation of the JV between government entity and private entity does not prevent other potential entrants or JV partners from profitably entering into business ventures or markets.

Under the rules, JV agreements allow sharing of profits and losses between the government entity and the private sector partner.

“JV agreements also allow the private sector partner to take over the infrastructure or development project undertaken for a single and specific goal, after the government divests itself of any interest in the JV, provided that such divestment by the government entity is allowed under existing rules and regulations,” it added.

Previously, the rules only stated that “where generally ownership of the asset/business will stay with the government, JV Agreements allow the private sector to take over the undertaking of the projects in its entirety after the government divests itself of any interest in the JV.”

Another new component of the guidelines is not allowing the splitting of government contracts into smaller quantities and amounts.

It also does not allow dividing contract implementation into artificial phases or sub-contracts to circumvent any provision or procedure under the guidelines including the approval by the NEDA Board Investment Coordination Committee.

The guidelines also note that entering into a JV does not change the nature of the government entity.

“In no instance may the government entity transfer or divest its primary or regular functions, whether directly or indirectly, to the private sector partner through the JV,” it added, noting that the government entity will continue to adhere to its regular statutory, oversight, and regulatory requirements during the life and implementation of the JV.

The amendments also expanded what items do not fall under the coverage of the JV guidelines.

Previously, the guidelines did not cover transactions of government financial institutions in the ordinary course of business as part of their normal and ordinary banking, financial or portfolio management operations; JVs of government entities in the exercise of their primary mandate to dispose of government assets or properties; and JVs of local government units.

Under the rules, the JV agreement should stipulate a term of existence not to exceed a 25 years, renewable for not more than 25 years, with a total maximum period of 50 years.

It also noted that mining JVs must be undertaken through competitive public bidding or relevant procurement modes. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

Fuel import savings from nuclear seen lowering power costs, raising competitiveness

PNRI.DOST.GOV.PH

By Beatriz Marie D. Cruz, Reporter

A SHIFT to nuclear power will save on fuel import costs and lower power bills, making the Philippines a more competitive destination for investors, a legislator said.

“(Foreign investors) want to build [manufacturing companies] using Filipino labor, but their savings are wiped out by high energy costs,” House Nuclear Energy Committee and Pangasinan Rep. Mark O. Cojuangco told BusinessWorld on the sidelines of a tour of the Philippine Nuclear Research Institute (PNRI) in Quezon City on Tuesday.

Mr. Cojuangco said legislators will not need to propose incentives to build nuclear facilities, saying that “the incentives are already built in.”

He said among the expected savings will be the cost of bringing in conventional fuel in bulk.

“You can fly nuclear fuel on a single airplane and get rid of the massive shipping infrastructure for fossil fuels,” he said.

Alberto Dalusung III, Energy Transition Advisor of the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities, said via e-mail, “Nuclear’s advantage is that it has a very high fuel energy density. Thus, its transport cost will be much lower.”

Mr. Dalusung added, “Most renewables, including solar, wind and hydro, do not have a fuel cost since they are indigenous and readily available.”

Khevin A. Yu, Energy Transition Campaigner at Greenpeace Philippines, said there is no assurance that harnessing nuclear energy will be cost-efficient.

“Government cannot intervene and would have to rely on private sector investment that is now focused on transitioning to renewable energy,” Mr. Yu said via chat.

The Japanese government spends an estimated 1 trillion yen annually on damage caused by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant meltdowns following the 2011 earthquake.

Asked about nuclear plant safety given the Philippines’ vulnerability to natural disasters, Mr. Cojuangco said these concerns can be addressed by a geological site evaluation.

“Locate the plant high enough so that it’s tsunami proof then you engineer the seismic design to be strong enough to withstand any possible earthquake in the Philippines,” he said.

He added that the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) was built at 18 meters above sea level, higher than the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, which was built at 10 meters above sea level.

Preciosa Corazon B. Pabroa, Nuclear Services Division chief of the PNRI, said a regulator would be tasked with safe nuclear energy use, noting the expected mandate of the proposed Philippine Atomic Energy Regulatory Authority (PhilATOM).

“It won’t be dangerous as long as it is managed… this is why we need a regulator to make sure nuclear power plants are safe,” Ms. Pabroa told BusinessWorld.

House Bill No. 7049 seeks to create PhilATOM, which will have “sole and exclusive jurisdiction to exercise regulatory control for the peaceful, safe, and secure uses of nuclear energy and radiation sources in the Philippines.” The measure was approved by the House Nuclear Energy Committee on March 22.

Under the bill, PhilATOM will oversee the construction and operation of nuclear or radiation facilities. It will also acquire, manufacture, import, export, store, and dispose of nuclear and radioactive materials in accordance with safety standards set by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The regulator will collect a fee not exceeding P0.02 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) to support its operations. Funding will also come from the budget, and contributions, grants, bequests, and donations from domestic or foreign sources.

The measure also allocates P0.06 per kWh of electricity generated to the Radioactive Waste Management Fund, which will finance the disposal of spent fuel. The fund will be held in trust by the Development Bank of the Philippines.

According to the bill, the minimum elevation of Emergency Diesel Generators serving nuclear power plants was also set at 18 meters above sea level.

PhilATOM’s council will be composed of a radiation expert, engineers, a nuclear lawyer, and either a physicist, geologist, or chemist, according to the bill.

The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council must also create a national emergency plan in the event of a nuclear or radiological emergency.

REHABILITATION
In 2017, South Korea offered $1.19 billion to rehabilitate the BNPP, which has been mothballed since 1986 due to safety and corruption concerns. If operated, the BNPP is expected to generate 620 megawatts of electricity, equivalent to 5% of Luzon’s energy requirement.

“We have an asset that we can make use of,” Mr. Cojuangco said. “We can validate if it’s well-built or not; we have the specifications. The Koreans that are running the same type of plants are telling us we can run that in five years.”

The House of Representatives aims to pass the bill on second reading when session resumes on May 8.

Low job quality persists despite receding unemployment

REUTERS

By Brontë H. Lacsamana, Reporter

FALLING unemployment is masking the phenomenon of workers taking on multiple jobs, because the work available is of low quality, labor experts said.

Rene E. Ofreneo, a labor analyst and professor emeritus at the University of the Philippines’ School of Labor and Industrial Studies, said in an interview: “In order to survive, many workers are forced to go into as many jobs as possible even if there’s no protection, even if there’s no security, and that explains this surge, this epidemic or pandemic of informality.”

The ranks of the unemployed fell to 2.47 million in February, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said, down from 3.13 million the year prior.

Workers are reporting low wages and the lack of benefits and rights commensurate with their tenure and qualifications, while contractual workers both in the formal and informal economies continue to be largely denied security of tenure.

President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. said during his election campaign that he will look into passing a security of tenure law after his predecessor Rodrigo R. Duterte failed to do so.

“Unfortunately, having started off strongly and setting high standards for socioeconomic transformation, in terms of labor conditions, we’re not seeing any movement,” Jose Enrique A. Africa, executive director of Ibon Foundation, said in a video interview.

“It would have been so important for instance for the government to genuinely push for the ‘endo’ bill, to genuinely push for questions of security of tenure,” he said.

“Endo” is a form of contractual employment where workers are not allowed to graduate to permanent status, which under the law must be granted after six months of probation.

In July, a Security of Tenure bill was filed in the House of Representatives, intended to end all forms of contractual employment that violate the right to security of tenure.

Kilusang Mayo Uno (KMU), one of the labor unions preparing to march on the streets of Manila on Labor Day, said the situation remains dire with the passage of such a law remaining elusive.

“We know that if the President doesn’t certify bills as urgent with the House and the Senate that these won’t be prioritized by the leadership, so in terms of contractualization, there’s really no improvement,” Jerome Adonis, KMU secretary general, said in a video interview.

He added that almost 60% to 70% of the workforce are employed in contractual arrangements.

According to the PSA, the size of the workforce rose to 51.27 million Filipinos in February, up 5.5% from a year earlier.

This is a sign that the labor market is recovering due to the lifting of restrictions that previously impeded job prospects, Arsenio M. Balisacan, National Economic and Development Authority secretary, said in a statement.

But purchasing power remains low with inflation chipping away at whatever wage gains have been made, labor leaders said.

“The prices of goods are really going up and, because of that increase, the purchasing power of workers has eroded,” Josua T. Mata, secretary general of the SENTRO labor group, said in a video interview.

He said wage adjustments have long lagged the cost of living, while job generation remains inadequate.

Mark Eugenio, 23, a seller of mobile phone accessories, said this current place of work is his third, having started at 18 as a McDonald’s crew member, and then joining Grab Kitchen. After three years, he switched to selling phone accessories.

Aldo dela Cruz, a 33-year-old seaman who was laid off and became a Lalamove delivery rider, said he must work tirelessly to make a living wage.

“You have to work really hard every day, take trips everywhere. You just have to save up and be stingy with your money, spend only what you can day to day,” he told BusinessWorld on the streets of Metro Manila.

Active wage increase petitions in almost all regions call for hikes of between P150 and P750 in the minimum wage. One is a petition seeking to raise the current P570 daily minimum wage for nonagricultural workers in the National Capital Region to P1,100.

Sergio R. Ortiz-Luis, Jr., president of the Employers Confederation of the Philippines, said wage increases are hard on small businesses, who must either pass price increases on to consumers, greatly reduce their workforce, or close up shop.

He said in a video interview that the government “must create an atmosphere where investors want to invest here, so jobs can be created.”

The Department of Labor and Employment has been focused on improving hireability through upgraded technical skills.

“We are looking into providing responsive technical and vocational training as well as apprenticeship,” Labor Secretary Bienvenido E. Laguesma said in a phone interview.

The objective is to “enhance and increase employability through skills, competency assessment, as well as following international standards,” he added.—with inputs from Patricia B. Mirasol

ADB sees carbon pricing as key to meeting climate goals

PEXELS-PIXABAY

DEVELOPING ASIA needs to consider carbon pricing systems if it hopes to meet its climate goals, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said.

“Without carbon pricing, we won’t be able to reduce emissions with the speed and skill needed to meet the Paris Agreement goal,” ADB economist Manisha Pradhananga said in a briefing on Thursday.

“What we find is that several countries will benefit from selling their carbon permits. Overall, the region is a small carbon importer,” she added.

Asia is one of the most highly vulnerable regions to climate change.

“Climate change will increase the spread of vector-borne and waterborne diseases, and deaths due to cardiovascular stress. Climate change under a high emissions scenario could impose gross domestic product (GDP) losses of 24% in the whole of developing Asia, 35% in India, 30% in Southeast Asia, and 24% in the rest of South Asia by 2100,” according to the Asian Development Outlook 2023 Thematic report by the ADB.

Developing Asia’s share of global greenhouse gas emissions doubled from 22% in 1990 to 44% in 2019 and is expected to remain at this level until mid-century under current policies, the ADB said.

ADB economist David Raitzer said developing Asia risks large losses if climate change is not addressed.

“Growth in the region has relied heavily on emission-intensive activities, with the emission intensity of GDP currently 41% higher than the rest of the world. Developing Asia is starting its decarbonization at relatively low-income levels and faces large development needs,” according to the report.

He also noted that carbon pricing is the only policy that “ensures that mitigation effort is allocated efficiently.”

“A carbon price measure ensures that abatement occurs where it is least costly, whereas command and control regulations have no mechanism to assure that they target the lowest-cost opportunities to decarbonize. Subsidies similarly have no market to guide their targeting, have some degree of fungibility, and often lead to deadweight welfare losses,” the report said.

“Carbon pricing is critical to achieving a net zero world at attainable cost. The inability of markets to account for the full social, economic, and environmental cost of greenhouse gas emissions remains the fundamental market failure that has led to carbon-intensive growth and climate change,” it added.

The ADB estimates that a carbon price of $70 per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2030 and $153 by 2050 will “trigger a transition to low-carbon growth and achieve global net zero.”

“Ambitious mitigation can be attained without carbon pricing, but the cost would be higher as carbon pricing is more efficient. Although progress is being made in the adoption of carbon prices, barriers often prevent prices from affecting investment and consumption decisions in developing Asia,” the ADB said.

“If the region’s economies do not proactively adopt carbon pricing, they risk being subjected to carbon border adjustment tariffs and other measures that could put trade at a disadvantage,” it added.

The ADB also cited how carbon trade can “help to smooth the distribution of costs among countries.”

“The modeled scenarios find that developing Asia will have both major carbon exporters and carbon importers if the world were to gradually transition to equal per capita emission quotas under the net zero scenarios,” it said.

“At the aggregate level, the modeling finds that developing Asia will be a slight potential importer of carbon offsets from the rest of the world under a contraction and convergence scenario over the entire century, so some policy costs are compensation to other regions. At the same time, revenues from exports of offsets turn aggregate costs negative for South Asia and help reduce costs in Indonesia and the rest of Southeast Asia,” it added.

Mr. Raitzer noted that the Philippines could be a carbon exporter.

“The Philippines is extremely climate vulnerable. It’s coming from a low level of baseline emissions, it would be a potential carbon exporter,” he said.

“The Philippines has expanded the share of coal in electricity generation. We don’t find (coal expansion) preferable because of the declining cost of other energy sources. If there were an agreement, the Philippines would come out as a carbon exporter and that would offset much of the cost,” he added. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

ADB sees firmer developing Asia growth with inflation ‘contained’

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THE growth of developing Asian economies is expected to firm to 4.8% this year, outperforming many regions with inflation “contained” and “relatively low,” the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said.

“The economic growth of developing Asia in 2022 was 4.2%, down from 7.2% in 2021. This year, the ADB predicts it at around 4.8%. Growth went down from two years ago, but compared to other parts of the world, the growth rate is relatively high and inflation rate is contained and relatively low,” ADB President Masatsugu Asakawa said in a livestreamed briefing on Thursday.

The ADB maintained its 6% growth forecast for the Philippines this year, on the lower end of the government’s 6-7% target.

“I would say that developing Asia has been growing at a very robust and steady pace, although we have to bear in mind a couple of risks involved,” he added.

Mr. Asakawa said that high inflation in advanced economies like the US and Europe have forced institutions there to raise borrowing costs.

“The Federal Reserve has started to slow the pace of interest rate hikes, but it’s not clear yet if those advanced economies will end up with a successful soft-landing scenario or falling into a recession due to inflationary pressures,” he added.

The Fed raised its funds rate by 475 bps since March 2022, bringing the policy rate to 4.75-5%.

This has also caused central banks in Asia to raise rates to keep in step with the Fed, which will threaten growth momentum, Mr. Asakawa said.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas has raised borrowing costs by 425 basis points (bps) since May, bringing the key policy rate to 6.25%.

On the other hand, Mr. Asakawa said that the reopening of China will also help drive growth in the region.

“This is good news for commodity exporting countries and also countries with close ties with China in terms of the supply chain network and tourism,” he said.

However, he noted that a stronger-than-expected Chinese recovery also poses risks in the form of inflation, via stronger demand for commodities.

Meanwhile, Mr. Asakawa also noted how the climate crisis could impede growth.

“This region is one of the most vulnerable against natural disasters. Our fight against climate change will be won or lost in this region,” he said.

The ADB increased its target for cumulative climate financing to $100 billion from $80 billion from 2019 to 2030.

He said that the bank is working on another climate financing instrument, the Innovative Finance Facility for Climate in Asia and Pacific.

“It’s an instrument to increase ADB’s climate financing by utilizing a guarantee mechanism which means if ever a borrowing country fails to repay its debt to the ADB, donor countries as a guarantor will pay the ADB on its behalf,” he said.

“We also declare to be a climate bank for the Asia and the Pacific,” he added. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson