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RE share should be 80% if PHL serious about meeting Paris promises — think tank

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The share of renewable energy (RE) in the Philippines’ power mix should be at laest 80% by 2030 to meet the country’s Paris climate commitments, an energy think tank said, citing a German study.

“We should be measuring our ambition based on whether it (aligns with) our commitment of 1.5° centigrade (maximum temperature rise) under the Paris agreement,” Avril de Torres, deputy executive director of the Center for Energy, Ecology, and Development, said.

The Paris agreement is al treaty that aims to keep the rise in global temperatures rise below 2°C. The Philippines is a signatory. 

Ms. de Torres said that the Philippine Energy Plan only expresses the country’s action plans in comparison to neighboring countries, which allows the Department of Energy (DoE) to say that the Philippines is ambitious.

Citing a study from German-based nonprofit organization Climate Analytics, Ms. de Torres said that meeting the Paris commitment would require a renewable energy share target of 80-83% by 2030 and 100% by 2040.

“Our ambition of 35% is not even half that is required if we are to align with the 1.5 degree Centigrade target,” she said.

As of the end of 2022, RE accounted for about 22% of the Philippine energy mix, with coal-fired power plants acconting for almost 60%. The government wants to boost the RE share to 35% by 2030 and to 50% by 2040.

“It’s good that the (plan) to retire (coal-fired power plants) has started but where is the  plan to meet the 1.5 degree target?,” she said.

Ms. de Torres made her remarks during the anniversary of the moratorium for approving greenfield coal-fired power projects.

As of July, the Philippines had coal-fired installed capacity of 12,472 megawatts (MW), according to the DoE.

To date, coal power projects with a total capacity of 2,405 MW are in the “committed” stage, with 1,520 MW in the “indicative” stage.

Committed projects are those that are already in the construction phase or have a financial close in place, whereas indicative projects are those that are currently in the predevelopment stage.

The DoE said in August that its plan to retire or repurpose power plants will involve up to 5,000 MW.

Ms. de Torres said that the projected capacity “is not enough” as there is still “no phaseout plan” for coal, gas, and oil. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera

DA opens hog demonstration farm in Pangasinan

REUTERS

THE Department of Agriculture (DA) said that it opened a swine multiplier and technology demonstration (SMTD) farm in Pangasinan, which will serve the hog repopulation needs of the Ilocos Region.

“We will repopulate our hog sector through these swine technology centers,” Agriculture Undersecretary Deogracias Victor B. Savellano said.

The DA opened the facility in Natividad, Pangasinan in response to the losses in the hog herd caused by African Swine Fever (ASF).

“We have put in place biosecurity measures that use a standard shelter design for hogs to keep small farms safe from ASF,” he added.

He said that the facility makes breeders available to hog farmers in the region.

“The facility will provide support to local raisers… by (also) producing adequate and quality stock to supply DA and other agencies’ needs for sustainability in production,” he added.

The DA has allocated about P40 million to build four SMTDs in the region. The three other facilities will be in Manaoag, Pangasinan and Candon and Vigan, Ilocos Sur. The other facilities are also set to be launched this year.

The cost of each facility is about P10 million,  including tunnel vent equipment, 30 breeder sows, and feed.

“The technology centers will be sites through which good swine genetics will be disseminated to far-flung provinces,” Mr. Savellano said.

“By training farmers in biosecurity measures, Philippines will be able to raise hog the inventory and pork supply,” he added. — Adrian H. Halili

Transfer pricing and business restructuring

Bloomberg reports that business restructuring, specifically global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity, hit $5.9 trillion in 2021, crushing the previous record of $4.2 trillion set in 2015. Grant Thornton (GT) LLP has since estimated that global M&A activity slowed in 2022 to $3.7 trillion. Most analysts are predicting that we could see a return to pre-2021 levels of activity.

However, a new GT survey of M&A professionals found that, after a lengthy respite, M&A activity is expected to rebound in the second half of this year.  In fact, the survey showed that 99% of respondents expect deal volume to increase over the coming months, with 11% forecasting a significant increase.

WHAT IS BUSINESS RESTRUCTURING?
In the context of this article, business restructuring refers to the cross-border reorganization of commercial or financial relations between associated enterprises.

Business restructuring may often involve the centralization of intangibles, risks, or functions with the “profit potential” attached to them. As an example, consider the conversion of full-fledged distributors (that is, enterprises with a relatively higher level of functions and risks) into limited-risk distributors, marketers, sales agents, or commissionaires (that is, enterprises with a relatively lower level of functions and risks) for a foreign associated enterprise that may operate as a principal.

According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Transfer Pricing Guidelines, relationships with third parties (e.g., suppliers, subcontractors, customers) may be one reason behind a restructuring. Some of the reasons reported by businesses pursuing restructuring include the wish to maximize synergies and economies of scale, to streamline the management of business lines and to improve the efficiency of the supply chain, taking advantage of the development of web-based technologies that have facilitated the emergence of global organizations.

Furthermore, business restructuring may be needed to preserve profitability or limit losses, e.g., in the event of an overcapacity situation or in a downturn economy.

BUSINESS RESTRUCTURING AND TAXES
Multinational enterprises (MNEs) are free to organize their business operations as they see fit. Tax authorities cannot dictate how MNEs design their structure or where they should locate their operations. Business restructuring arrangements, though, may be motivated by the desire to obtain tax benefits. However, this does not in itself warrant a conclusion that it is a non-arm’s length arrangement.

Tax authorities, on the other hand, have the right to determine the tax consequences of the structure put in place by an MNE. This means that the pricing for restructured transactions should be determined according to the arm’s length principle. The arm’s length principle requires that the prices charged for transactions between related parties be the same as those charged for similar transactions between unrelated parties. This is important because transfer pricing can have a significant impact on the tax liabilities of the related parties and the tax revenue of the countries in which they operate.

In view of business restructuring, the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) in Revenue Audit Memorandum Order (RAMO) No. 1-2019 states that a reduction of profits in a business restructuring is acceptable when the functions performed, assets employed, and risk assumed are actually transferred to an associate. It is viewed as commercially rational for a multinational group to restructure in order to obtain tax savings.

However, if, despite the reduction of profit, it is found that the local entity continues to perform the same functions and bears the same risks, the BIR will make the necessary adjustments. This is because, in an arm’s length situation, an independent party will not restructure its business if it results in a negative outcome, where it has a realistic option available not to do so.

TP considerations in business restructuring:

1. Identifying the transactions that make up the business restructuring with precision.

There can be group-level business reasons for an MNE group to restructure. However, it is worth emphasizing that the arm’s length principle treats the members of an MNE group as separate entities rather than as inseparable parts of a single unified business. As a consequence, it is not sufficient from a transfer pricing perspective that a restructuring arrangement makes commercial sense for the group as a whole; it must be at arm’s length at the level of each individual taxpayer. Accordingly, there should be an accurate delineation of the transactions comprising the business restructuring and the functions, assets, and risks before and after the restructuring.

2. Reallocation of profit potential as a result of a business restructuring.

When a change in business arrangements results in a reduction in profit potential or expected future profits, an independent enterprise does not necessarily receive compensation. The arm’s length principle does not require compensation for a mere decrease in the expectation of an entity’s future profits. When applying the arm’s length principle to business restructurings, it is important to determine whether there is a transfer of something of value (an asset or an ongoing concern) or a termination or substantial renegotiation of existing arrangements that warrant compensation between independent parties in comparable circumstances.

3. Indemnification of the restructured entity for the termination or substantial renegotiation of existing arrangements.

The termination or renegotiation of contractual relationships in the context of a business restructuring might cause the restructured entity to suffer detriments such as restructuring costs (e.g., write-off of assets, termination of employment contracts), re-conversion costs (e.g., to adapt its existing operation to other customer needs), and/or a loss of profit potential. In these situations, it is important to evaluate whether, at arm’s length, indemnification should be paid to the restructured entity, and if so, how to determine such indemnification.

MNES AND TRANSFER PRICING AUDITS
Benjamin Franklin once said, “By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.” To ensure a high-quality transfer pricing risk assessment, MNE groups should structure themselves in a way that accurately reflects the economic substance of their transactions and operations to comply with transfer pricing rules. It is equally important to prepare transfer pricing documentation that provides useful information to the tax authority. Tax audit cases tend to be fact-intensive, so the availability of adequate information during the audit is critical.

Well-prepared documentation will give tax authorities some assurance that the taxpayer has analyzed the positions it reports on and has made a good-faith effort to comply with the transfer pricing rules. The documentation should include an overview of the MNE group business, including the nature of its global business operations, overall transfer pricing policies, and global allocation of income and economic activity.

Additionally, MNE groups are recommended to document their decisions and intentions regarding business restructurings, especially as regards their decisions to assume or transfer significant risks, before the relevant transactions occur. Taxpayers should be prepared to provide additional information and documentation to tax authorities upon request.

By carefully evaluating their compliance with transfer pricing rules and maintaining well-prepared documentation, taxpayers can help ensure that they are in compliance with applicable regulations and avoid potential penalties and other adverse consequences.

Let’s Talk TP is an offshoot of Let’s Talk Tax, a weekly newspaper column of P&A Grant Thornton that aims to keep the public informed of various developments in taxation. This article is not intended to be a substitute for competent professional advice.

 

Marie Fe F. Dangiwan is a partner of the Tax Advisory & Compliance of P&A Grant Thornton. P&A Grant Thornton is one of the leading audits, tax, advisory, and outsourcing firms in the Philippines, with 29 Partners and more than 1,000 staff members.

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Creamline shoots for solo lead in Farm Fresh clash

Games Today
(Filoil EcoOil Arena)
2 p.m. -— Chery Tiggo vs Gerflor
4 p.m. — Farm Fresh vs Creamline
6 p.m. — Cignal vs Akari

CREAMLINE can reclaim solo first place by winning its Farm Fresh matchup today in the Premier Volleyball League All-Filipino Conference at the Filoil EcoOil Arena.

The Cool Smashers had the luxury of resting their starters after their second unit headed by Pau Soriano and Lorie Bernardo stepped up in a 25-15, 25-12, 25-10 rout of the Gerflor Defenders Thursday in Antipolo City.

It catapulted the multi-titled franchise to a third straight triumph and into the lead, before Petro Gazz caught up with Creamline when it turned back a feisty Nxled, 25-23, 25-21, 25-22, in an out-of-town sortie in Candon, Ilocos Sur Saturday.

And the Cool Smashers have a chance to jump back to a familiar place — the top.

“Usual ginagawa namin pinag hahandaan namin any team, kahit sino makalaban kailangan talaga paghandaan,” said Creamline coach Sherwin Meneses of their 4pm duel with the Foxies, who are winless in four starts.

Ms. Soriano and Ms. Bernardo came through when Mr. Meneses pulled them out like rabbits from a hat. They delivered by combining for 10 points while providing rock-solid net defense.

Given the chance, Mr. Meneses will not hesitate to summon the pair of skilled middle blockers from the bench and send them straight into battle.

Isa lang sistema sinusunod sa middle, alam na ng lahat gagawin, sadyang medyo advantage lang two namin reliever, nagpapakita din kasi sila ng magandang ensayo,” said Mr. Meneses of Ms. Soriano and Ms. Bernardo.

Also on the three-game slate are matches pitting Chery Tiggo (2-1) against Gerflor (0-3) at 2 p.m. and Cignal (1-2) versus a giant-slaying Akari (3-1) at 6 p.m. — Joey Villar

Adamson drops Arellano, barges into Final Four of Shakey’s Super League preseason tourney

Games On Saturday
11 a.m. — CSB vs UST
2 p.m. — UE vs AU

ADAMSON cruised to the Final Four with an easy 25-21, 25-18, 25-15 win over Arellano University (AU) in the Shakey’s Super League (SSL) Collegiate Pre-Season Championship quarterfinals over the weekend at the Rizal Memorial Coliseum.

All players, except for the liberos, racked up the points in a balanced attack as the Lady Falcons maximized their win-once bonus to make a return semifinal trip after a bronze-medal finish in the inaugural season.

This time, the Lady Falcons found no trouble replicating their feat in only 83 minutes with 13 players scoring led by Maria Rochelle Lalongisip’s eight points.

Ayesha Juegos, Jen Villegas and Antonette Adolfo chipped in seven points each, skipper Lucille Almonte had five while Lorence Toring and Jimy Jean Jamili added five points apiece.

“We’re so happy and grateful na nakapasok po kami sa semis. Nakabawi po kami at nabigay po namin iyung best as a team. Ngayon, mas naibigay po namin ‘yung laro namin,” said Ms. Juegos, who claimed the Player of the Game honors on five hits and two aces.

The Lady Falcons will face reigning champion and undefeated National U, which also made short work of University of the East (UE) with a 25-19, 25-21, 25-23 win in the other quarterfinal pairing.

Also barging into the Final Four was Far Eastern University after trouncing Ateneo, 25-19, 25-18, 25-18, to arrange a knockout semifinals against either NCAA champion College of St. Benilde (CSB) or University of Santo Tomas (UST).

St. Benilde forced a deciding game against UST, which enjoyed a twice-to-beat advantage, in their quarterfinal duel after a thrilling 25-22, 23-25, 18-25, 25-23, 15-11 win.

The rubber match is set for Saturday at the same venue to complete the Final Four cast of SSL Season 2 in cooperation with the Commission on Higher Education and the Philippine Sports Commission.

UE and Arellano, as well as Ateneo against the loser between St. Benilde and UST, will tussle in the classification matches for 5th-8th spots before the semis and the best-of-three finals. — John Bryan Ulanday

Nueva Ecija keeps hopes up after falling behind in MPBL best-of-3

FACEBOOK.COM/RICEVANGUARDS

NUEVA ECIJA will not roll over and die. It’s the reigning — king for a reason.

With their backs against the wall, the Rice Vanguards brim with hope that they can score sweet revenge against rival San Juan to force a winner-take-all Game 3 in the Maharlika Pilipinas Basketball League (MPBL) North Division Finals.

The No. 2 seed Nueva Ecija faltered late in a tough 86-82 Game 1 loss, making it a win-or-go-home tussle in Game 2 against the No. 3 San Juan on Friday on its own turf at the Nueva Ecija Coliseum in Palayan City.

Pinahaba lang namin iyung series. Bawian natin,” vowed coach Jerson Cabiltes, preaching confidence to his wards, who are armed with enough experience and poise to essay a series comeback.

The Rice Vanguards led by as many as 14 points, including a 12-point lead at the half, against San Juan, only to cool down and allow a fiery San Juan comeback to find themselves down in the short best-of-three series.

Nueva Ecija, which swept No. 7 Pasay in the quarterfinals, now has to win the last two games to keep its title defense alive.

The Bong Cuevas-owned squad has been in the same situation before and succeeded in style at the expense of the same squad to eventually clinch the MPBL crown.

Last season, Nueva Ecija swept the elimination round before absorbing its first defeat against San Juan in the North Division finals, 72-79.

The vengeful Rice Vanguards went on to win the next two matches, 89-83 and 84-68, to march on to the national finals, where they made short work of Zamboanga, 3-1.

Against the odds, Nueva Ecija is out to repeat history with mainstays like Chris Bitoon, Michael Mabulac, Bryon Villarias, Renz Palma, Will McAloney and Michael Juico leading the way. — John Bryan Ulanday

GMs Antonio, Laylo headline 3-day Ozamiz chess festival

RAFAEL REX FELISILDA-UNSPLASH

BATTLE-SCARRED Grandmasters (GMs) Joey Antonio and Darwin Laylo will invade Ozamiz City to banner the elite cast participating in the 1st Henry S. Oaminal 7-in-1 Chess Festival from Nov. 10-12.

The grandmasters will also hold lectures and stage simul games on the side to help drum up support for the game.

Mr. Antonio and Mr. Laylo, both Olympiad veterans, will have their eyes on the P500,000 pot at stake for multiple categories, including the rapid event with P30,000 going to the winner, the blitz (5,000), and the Armaggedon Battle of Philippine champions.

The two will also join Asia’s first GM Eugene Torre in playing simul games against the best, not just from Ozamiz but also all comers from Mindanao.

The highlight is the Armageddon event featuring Antonio, Laylo, International Masters Joel Pimentel, Ronald Bancod, Rolando Nolte, Kim Steven Yap and Rechieliu Salcedo, FIDE Masters AJ Literatus, Alekhine Nouri, Ellan Asuela and Nelson Villanueva.

Other top players seeing action are International Masters Angelo Young and Rico Mascarinas, with Lennon Hart Salgados, Johnnel Balquin and Jayson Salubre the notable players representing Mindanao.

Also on tap are individual and team, age-group and executive events. — Joey Villar

D-backs’ Marte packs hot bat as World Series shifts to Arizona

KETEL MARTE takes his MLB record 18-game postseason hitting streak home to Arizona for World Series Game Three Monday where he expects to feel even more confident at the plate.

It appeared the center fielder’s streak might come to an end when he went hitless in his first four at-bats on Saturday against the Rangers in Arlington.

But he delivered a bases-loaded, two-out single up the middle that plated two runs to put the game out of reach.

The 9-1 shellacking evened the best-of-seven series 1-1 and left the resilient team oozing with confidence as the series shifts to Chase Field for the next three contests.

“It’s our house,” Mr. Marte, who hails from the Dominican Republic, said through a translator. “We’re going to be more comfortable there. We’re going to have our fans with us supporting us, and we have the talent, so we’re going to beat them.”

The 35-year-old’s postseason hitting streak began in his playoff debut in the NL Wild Card game in 2017 and he extended it through the next three Divisional Games.

He picked it back up starting with the Wild Card round this month and stayed hot to maintain it through the Divisional, Conference and the first two games of the Fall Classic. He broke the previous record of 17 straight postseason games with a hit held by Manny Ramirez (2003-04), Derek Jeter (1998-99) and Hank Bauer (1956-1958).

Mr. Marte is batting .333 with nine extra-base hits and 11 RBIs in 14 games this postseason, according to MLB.com.

“Very happy,” Mr. Marte said. “I never imagined doing something like this… It’s just another accomplishment for myself. I know what kind of person I am. I’m a person that believes in God. We’re going to continue to strike and continue to break records.”

Texas will send ace Max Scherzer to the mound for Monday’s pivotal Game Three while Arizona will counter with Brandon Pfaadt. — Reuters

Hawks lead wire to wire in beating Bucks, deal first loss of Milwaukee’s Lillard era

TRAE Young’s 20 points led eight Atlanta scorers in double figures, and the Hawks led wire to wire en route to a 127-110 rout over the host Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday.

Atlanta pounced early, building a 15-point lead less than nine minutes into the game.

Milwaukee cut the deficit to one early into the second quarter, but runs of 18-4 and 13-3 in the period put the Hawks firmly in control.

The visitors shot 47-of-93 from the floor, including 15-of-37 from 3-point range, led by Bogdan Bogdanovic’s 4-of-7.

Mr. Bogdanovic led three Hawks reserves in double figures with 17 points. Onyeka Okongwu added 14 points and grabbed seven rebounds, and Saddiq Bey scored 13 points with nine rebounds.

All five Atlanta starters scored at least 12 points, including Clint Capela with 12 points and 12 rebounds. Dejounte Murray and De’Andre Hunter each scored 15 points, and Jalen Johnson went for 14 points and seven rebounds.

Mr. Young dished a game-high 11 assists, Mr. Bogdanovic had six assists and Mr. Murray had five assists.

Atlanta totaled 32 assists as a team to 22 for Milwaukee.

The Hawks successfully pushed the pace with 25 fast-break points to seven for the Bucks, successfully capitalizing in part on Milwaukee’s 23 turnovers.

The Atlanta lead reached 31 points midway through the fourth quarter thanks to a 16-2 outburst lasting a little more than three minutes. It came after Giannis Antetokounmpo had dunked home two of his game-high 26 points to pull the Bucks to within 17.

Damian Lillard suffered through his worst offensive performance since Nov. 5, 2021, when he shot 2-of-13 from the floor for four points.

On Sunday, Mr. Lillard went 2-of-12 for six points, and was scoreless until the second half. Malik Beasley scored 18 points, Brook Lopez had 13 points and Bobby Portis scored 12 points off the bench for the Bucks.

Mr. Antetokounmpo grabbed a team-high 11 rebounds. Milwaukee shot 39-of-86 from the floor, including 16-of-44 from 3-point range. — Field Level Medi

China and Russia take aim at US at Chinese military forum

REUTERS

BEIJING  — Chinese and Russian military chiefs targeted the United States for criticism at a security forum in Beijing on Monday, even as China’s second-most-senior military commander vowed to boost defense ties with Washington.

The lack of regular communications between the US and Chinese militaries has been a persistent worry for Washington amid tensions between the countries and the risk of an accidental clash in the South China Sea or near Taiwan.

The Beijing Xiangshan Forum, China’s biggest annual show of military diplomacy, began Sunday without the country’s defense minister, who typically hosts the event, but included a U.S. delegation amid roiling regional tensions.

Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu warned the West that its involvement in the Ukraine war created grave danger.

“The Western line of steady escalation of the conflict with Russia carries the threat of a direct military clash between nuclear powers, which is fraught with catastrophic consequences,” Russia’s TASS state news agency cited Shoigu as saying at the forum.

Shoigu also said the West intends to inflict “strategic defeat” on Russia in a “hybrid war,” and praised the model of Russia-China relations as “exemplary,” Russian state media reported.

Zhang Youxia, vice chairman under President Xi Jinping on China’s Central Military Commission, delivered veiled criticism of the United States and its allies, accusing “some countries” of trying to undermine the government.

But in other parts of his speech, Zhang stressed the need for improved military ties with the United States.

“We will deepen strategic cooperation and coordination with Russia and are willing to, on the basis of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation, develop military ties with the US,” Mr. Zhang said in an address being closely watched by military attaches and diplomats amid tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea.

China’s defense minister delivered the keynote speech in previous years.

China and the US have had no high-level military-to-military communications since the Washington-sanctioned former Chinese defense minister, Li Shangfu, was appointed in March.

Mr. Li was sacked last week without explanation, and China did not name a replacement. Reuters reported last month that Li, who has been missing for two months, was being investigated over corruption.

The US Defense department has sent a delegation led by Cynthia Xanthi Carras, China country director in the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense.

It is not yet known whether the US team will meet separately with Chinese military officials.

The participation of the U.S. delegation comes as the United States and China ramp up exchanges ahead of an expected summit between US President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. and Chinese President Xi Jinping next month.

Last week, China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, met with Mr. Biden for an hour in talks the White House described as a “good opportunity” to keep open lines of communication between the two geopolitical rivals.

Despite the conciliatory remarks about improving China-US military relations, Zhang and some People’s Liberation Army officers gave no sign of a softer stance on issues such as Taiwan, which Beijing’s regards as its own territory.

Chinese Lieutenant General He Lei, speaking at a panel on Sunday, said that if China has to use force against Taiwan, “it will be a war for reunification, a just and legitimate war.”

In his speech, Mr. Zhang said that countries “should not deliberately provoke other countries on major and sensitive issues,” he said, adding that Taiwan is “a core interest” of China.

Many Western countries have either shunned the forum or are only sending small and low-level delegations, preferring instead to discuss international security issues at the Shangri-La Dialogue, held annually in Singapore.

Together with the commission’s third-ranked official, He Weidong, Mr. Zhang held bilateral meetings with defense ministers from Laos, Mongolia, Belarus, East Timor and Myanmar, according to state media. — Reuters

Barcelona’s Museum of Archaeology throws open doors to nudist visitors

A giant Estelada flag (Catalan separatist flag) is seen in Barcelona, Spain Feb. 12, 2021. — REUTERS/ALBERT GEA

BARCELONA — A Barcelona museum opened its doors to nudists on Saturday, holding a special tour during which visitors could ditch their clothes.

The Museum of Archaeology of Catalonia held the 90-minute tour in collaboration with the Catalan Naturism Club.

Visitors viewed the Bronzes of Riace exhibition of Luigi Spina’s photographs depicting two large Greek bronze statues of naked warriors from the 5th century B.C. that were discovered in 1972 near Riace, Italy.

“We wanted to make it a more colorful visit and not the typical guided tour,” said guide Edgard, who also went clothes-free. “We wanted people who came to see it to feel exactly the same as the work they were looking at.”

The museum’s website promised visitors the chance to “admire the works by posing in the same situation as they are, completely naked and surrounded by other bodies.”

“(I feel) the same intensity as observing it with clothes on, but with the difference that we might understand better that nudity has always existed and bodies should not be a source of shame for anyone,” said health worker Marta, 59, who was visiting the exhibition. — Reuters

Inflation to dog world economy next year, postponing rate cut calls

CORPORATE.WALMART.COM

BENGALURU — High inflation will dog the world economy next year, with three-quarters of over 200 economists polled by Reuters saying the main risk is that it turns out higher than they forecast, suggesting interest rates will also remain higher for longer.

Several central banks are still expected to begin cutting interest rates by the middle of 2024, but a growing number of economists surveyed are adjusting their views, pushing the more likely date into the second half of next year.

This is a significant change from expectations at the start of this year. Then, some investment banks were predicting the U.S. Federal Reserve, which sets the tone for many others, would be cutting rates right around now.

Despite broad success in bringing inflation down from its highs – the easier bit – prices are still rising faster than most central banks would prefer and hitting their inflation targets is likely to be tough.

The latest Reuters poll of over 500 economists taken between Oct. 6 and Oct. 25 produced 2024 growth downgrades and inflation upgrades for a majority of the 48 economies around the world surveyed.

A 75% majority who answered a separate question, 171 of 228, said the risk to these broadly-upgraded inflation forecasts was skewed higher, with only 57 saying lower.

The results follow news on Thursday the U.S. economy unexpectedly grew nearly 5%, annualized, in the third quarter, underscoring how the strength of the world’s largest economy is setting it apart from most of its peers.

The survey results also follow a warning from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who said after the ECB snapped a 10-meeting tightening streak that “even having a discussion on a cut is totally, totally premature”.

While many central banks, including the Fed and the ECB, have presented a “higher for longer” narrative on rates for the better part of this year, many economists and financial market traders have been reluctant to accept that view.

“I think all of us have to keep an open mind that maybe policy isn’t restrictive enough,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO.

“Our forecast is that the Fed has done enough and they don’t have to raise rates further, but I haven’t closed off the possibility we could be wrong and the Fed does ultimately have to do more.”

While most economists still say the Fed will cut by mid-year, the latest poll shows just 55% backing that scenario compared with over 70% last month.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which often leads the interest rate cycle, was also forecast to wait until July-September 2024 before cutting.

The majority backing no cuts until the second half of 2024 has also grown stronger for the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Indonesia and the Reserve Bank of India.

Even the Bank of Japan, the outlier sticking to ultra-loose policy through this entire round of inflation, is now expected to abandon negative interest rates next year.

Crucially, most economists agree the first easing steps will not be the beginning of a rapid series of cuts.

Asked what would prompt the first cut by the central bank they cover, over a two-thirds majority, 149 of 219, said it would be simply to make real interest rates less restrictive as inflation falls.

The remaining 70 said the first move would mark a shift towards stimulating the economy, suggesting only a minority expect a hard enough hit to demand and inflation hard to warrant monetary response.

Global economic growth was forecast to slow to 2.6% next year from an expected 2.9% this year.

“Central banks have had the highest rates in order to fight inflation … it’s certainly restraining activity, and it’s going to be a while before we get global growth above what has been its historical average,” said Nathan Sheets, global chief economist at Citi. — Reuters

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