PHILIPPINE rice imports are projected to exceed five million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2026-2027, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said.

The USDA forecast inbound rice shipments to increase nearly 16% during the period, up from the estimated 4.4 MMT in the ongoing MY 2025-2026.

The rice marketing year runs from July to June of the following year.

The anticipated rise in imports is linked to tighter stock levels carried over from the current marketing year. Rice inventories are expected to drop to 2.9 MMT, slightly below the previous year’s 2.95 MMT.

“Ending stocks are expected to decline compared to the previous marketing year due to the impact of the four-month rice import ban, which reduced stock carryover,” the USDA said.

Palay (unmilled rice) output is projected at 19.68 MMT in MY 2026-2027, reflecting a 0.4% increase from the prior year.

Despite the slight uptick in production and incremental yield gains, the USDA said steady population growth will continue to push demand for the staple grain, which will “keep overall consumption on an upward trend,” the USDA said.

It said Philippine rice consumption in MY 2026-2027 is expected to inch up to 17.65 MMT from 17.6 MMT in the current MY. — Vonn Andrei E. Villamiel

THE retail prices of rice and fish increased year on year at mid-March, while meat prices declined, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).

During the March 15-17 period, which the PSA calls the second phase of March, the national average retail price of regular-milled rice increased 5.8% year on year to P48.69 per kilo.

The second-phase price is also higher than the P47.47-per-kilo average in the first phase of the month (March 1-5) and P46.01 a month earlier.

The highest average retail price of regular-milled rice in the second phase was recorded in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao at P53.26 per kilo, while the lowest retail price was reported in the Cagayan Valley at P41.37.

The retail price of galunggong (round scad) rose 4.56% to P248.64 per kilo in the second phase of March. The national average is also higher than the  P242.67 recorded in the first phase of March and P246.38 a month earlier.

Chicken retail prices rose to P212 per kilo in the second phase of March from P211.67 a year earlier. The average retail price is higher than the P211.41 recorded in the first phase of March, but lower than P212.85 a month earlier.

Meanwhile, the retail price of fresh pork shoulder averaged P341.48 per kilo in the second phase of March, down 6.46% from a year earlier. The national average is slightly higher than P340.80 recorded in the first phase of March but lower than P342.37 a month earlier. — Vonn Andrei E. Villamiel

COCONUT OIL exports in February declined 5.8%, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported, with an industry official citing raw material availability issues that weighed on output.

Citing preliminary data, the PSA said shipments of coconut oil, the leading Philippine agricultural export commodity and eighth overall among exports, slipped 5.8% year on year to $237.41 million in February.

The PSA said that, as a share of the country’s total exports, coconut oil declined to 3.2% from 3.7% previously.

In the first two months, coconut oil exports fell 11.6% to $442.97 million. The decline happened in the face of a 7.4% year-to-date rise in agro-based exports.

Charles R. Avila, chairman and chief executive officer of the Confederation of Coconut Farmers’ Organizations of the Philippines, said the drop in exports was mainly due to supply-side constraints stemming from weather disturbances.

“There is no denying that the 2024/2025 El Niño and subsequent dry conditions reduced coconut yields, affecting copra production and leading to a tightening in the supply of exports,” Mr. Avila told BusinessWorld.

According to the PSA, output of mature coconut, the raw material for copra, stagnated at about 14.08 million metric tons (MMT) in each of the last two years, against 14.47 MMT in 2023.

Mr. Avila added that dry weather tends to encourage the spread of the coconut scale insect, known as cocolisap, which also reduces production.

In June, the Philippine Coconut Authority (PCA) reported cocolisap infestations in nine regions, which resulted in an estimated P280 million in lost production.

About 516,000 coconut trees were struck by the pest, many of them in Calabarzon, a leading coconut producer.

Mr. Avila said increased domestic consumption of coconut products, including by the biofuel industry, may have also contributed to the decline in coconut oil exports.

“Despite the mandatory biodiesel blend, the mandate was suspended at 3%, and we have not yet reached the expected mandatory 5% (B-5). Overall, it is not yet such a big factor as to substantially reduce export supply,” he said.

Meanwhile, Mr. Avila said  the anticipated production rebound this year may not materialize, despite the government target of boosting coconut exports to $3 billion.

“Even with rising demand, a corresponding increase in supply is not a given,” he said.

Mr. Avila said limited farmer access to funding, infrastructure gaps, and weak coordination among producers and government agencies continue to hamper efforts to expand output. — Vonn Andrei E. Villamiel

By Vonn Andrei E. Villamiel, Reporter

ENVIRONMENT SECRETARY Juan Miguel T. Cuna said the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) supports waste-to-energy (WTE) technology, positioning such projects as a means of containing waste.

“Our priority is protecting the environment and we welcome technologies that will work to manage solid waste in the country, including waste‑to‑fuel, biomass conversion, WTE, and advanced recycling or upcycling,” Mr. Cuna told BusinessWorld.

The newly-appointed Mr. Cuna said the DENR is supporting the Department of Energy’s push for WTE legislation, and will help ensure that proposed legislation is consistent with environmental laws.

“We have already provided guardrails to ensure alignment with the Clean Air Act and the Ecological Solid Waste Management Act,” he said.

The proposed WTE legislation is a priority item of the Legislative-Executive Development Advisory Council for the 20^th Congress. It seeks to establish a national energy policy and regulatory framework for facilities that convert waste into energy.

The proposed measure also aims to classify WTE as a renewable energy source, addressing the dual challenges of solid waste management and energy security, while encouraging investment from the private sector and local government units (LGUs).

In December, the House of Representatives passed its version of the Waste Treatment Technology Act, which includes provisions on WTE, while a counterpart bill remains under discussion in the Senate Committee on Energy.

The DENR has said it received support from several legislators, including former President and Pampanga Rep. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, on the matter of amending the 25-year-old Republic Act No. 9003 or the Ecological Solid Waste Management Act.

The proposed amendments would allow the use of new waste incineration technologies and establish a clearer regulatory framework for their adoption.

Former Environment Secretary Raphael P.M. Lotilla said that since the law’s passage in 2001, advances in incineration technology have made WTE projects more viable.

“New incineration technologies have emerged that can now meet current environmental standards,” he earlier told reporters.

Private-sector investments also point to growing momentum behind WTE technologies.

In November, the Bases Conversion and Development Authority (BCDA), in partnership with a Filipino-Indian consortium, announced the establishment of a WTE plant in New Clark City.

The BCDA said the P4-billion project would become the first large-scale facility of its kind in the country.

The BCDA said the plant is expected to process up to 600 metric tons of waste daily and generate 12 megawatts of electricity, enough to power over 10,000 homes in Clark and nearby communities.

Energy Undersecretary Giovanni Carlo J. Bacordo said the project would support the Philippines’ renewable energy targets set out in the Philippine Energy Plan 2023–2050, while also addressing long-standing waste management issues.

“It’s not only for job generation in the region and power generation, but it is also about waste management,” he has said. “It is like hitting two birds with one stone — waste management, power generation and renewable energy.”

Environmental groups have long objected to incineration, warning of risks to public health and the environment.

“The process of incineration, whether for waste disposal or power generation, poses a significant threat to the health of Filipinos,” Greenpeace Philippines said in a position paper.

The group said during incineration, harmful compounds are either concentrated or created, exposing nearby communities to pollutants linked to various diseases.

“Thermal WTE technologies emit pollutants such as heavy metals, furans and dioxins, which have been found to contribute to respiratory and reproductive diseases. Dioxins have also been linked to cancer and negative effects on fetal development,” Greenpeace said.

Marian Frances T. Ledesma, zero-waste campaigner at Greenpeace Philippines, said WTE facilities could also worsen the climate crisis.

“Incinerators produce 2,988 pounds of carbon dioxide per unit of electricity (MWh), making it a highly carbon-intensive form of energy production,” she told BusinessWorld via e-mail.

She added that such facilities are costly and may not be suited to the country’s waste profile.

“WTE facilities are outrageously expensive and would force cities to take on large debts,” Ms. Ledesma said. “It is also highly inefficient for our waste stream, which is mostly organic waste. We’d use more energy to burn organic waste than what a facility can generate.”

Ochie L. Tolentino, zero-waste campaigner at EcoWaste Coalition, told BusinessWorld by phone that the government should instead focus on enforcing existing waste laws.

“We don’t need WTE. It’s a new source of pollution,” she said, adding that proper implementation of the Ecological Solid Waste Management Act would be sufficient.

“The priority should be improving waste diversion across municipalities,” she said. “Having a waste management plan is one thing, but implementation is another. Waste diversion must be closely monitored at the local level to reduce landfill use.”

Industry officials contend that WTE resolves structural gaps in the waste management system.

Jose Maria Niño Jesus P. Madara, president and chief executive officer of Metpower Ventures Holdings, Inc. (MPVHI), said WTE addresses gaps in the current waste management system by processing residual waste that cannot be recycled or reused.

“Segregation at source is mandated, but in practice, not all waste is properly segregated,” he told BusinessWorld. “WTE provides a practical solution by recovering energy from residual waste that would otherwise end up in landfills.”

MPVHI, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Metro Pacific Investments Corp., invests in renewable energy generation and in the production of refuse-derived fuel, biomethane, and fertilizer.

Mr. Madara said WTE should be seen as complementary to, rather than a replacement for, waste reduction and recycling efforts.

“It’s not to say that we should stop segregation of the resource. Because ultimately, if the quality of the waste, in terms of calorific content, improves through segregation, that actually also benefits the facility, because now we have higher energy output, higher efficiency,” he said.

Mr. Madara also said WTE solutions are applicable to the Philippines as the technology is adaptable and already widely deployed in comparable markets.

“There are many reference points in Asia — Japan, China, Singapore — where these facilities are operating at scale. In terms of the waste characteristics, we’re pretty similar to China, and they have hundreds of such facilities,” he said.

He also said the health risk claims are often based on outdated assumptions about waste incineration technologies.

“A lot of the concerns are based on older models of incineration,” he said. “Today’s facilities are highly capable of controlling emissions within strict environmental standards.”

Meanwhile, the DENR said it has enhanced its capacity to regulate such technologies.

“The Environmental Management Bureau has strengthened its technical capacity and now has the capability to measure and monitor emissions from WTE facilities,” Mr. Cuna said.

He said that the department’s capability is critical to ensuring compliance with air quality standards and strengthening regulatory oversight.