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Shopee leverages AI to empower brands, shoppers

New AI-powered tools were introduced at the Shopee Brands Summit including a virtual fitting room. — EDG ADRIAN A. EVA

Shopee, one of the country’s leading e-commerce platforms, unveiled several artificial intelligence (AI) tools aimed at improving the experience of both sellers and shoppers on the platform.

During the Shopee Brands Summit held on Feb. 11, the company introduced a suite of AI-powered tools, including Brand Max, enhanced AI LiveStream features, and other innovations such as a virtual fitting room.

Jack Ng, head of commercial for Shopee Philippines, said the platform is investing in AI-enabled tools to ensure that brands grow with greater clarity and control.

“For sellers, this means making it easier to present products well and reach the right audiences,” Mr. Ng said.

“For shoppers, it translates into more accurate search results and relevant recommendations, so they can find the products they want faster.”

He added that these AI tools help brands navigate crowded markets and focus on what truly drives growth.

Shopee’s Brand Max is an AI-powered branding solution that introduces brands to potential buyers. The platform said it replaces traditional display ads with smarter audience targeting and broader placements within a single campaign.

“Brand Max uses our algorithm to target new users who have shown interest in your category but have not yet purchased from your brand,” Xiaoo Liu, head of Shopee Mall for Shopee Philippines, said during the summit.

“With this, Shopee will not just be a sales channel for you. Shopee will also help you build your brand and reach more buyers than ever,” he added.

Meanwhile, Shopee’s AI LiveStream, first launched last year, will be equipped with additional tools, rolling out across Southeast Asia, to allow brands to engage with shoppers 24/7, Janine Teotico, head of affiliate and creator marketing at Shopee Philippines, said.

These tools include an AI Script Generator, AI Comment Assistant, AI Stream Manager, and a feature that detects and highlights a product’s most persuasive details.

Other AI tools previously launched remain available, including features that generate optimized photos and titles, and an auto-reader that suggests category attributes from product images.

Shopee also announced that it will soon launch a virtual fitting room, which allows shoppers to try on clothes virtually.

The platform is strengthening its brand support through initiatives such as KOLLAB and First-to-Launch. KOLLAB connects brands with high-performing creators, while the latter provides a focused, high-impact environment for product debuts. — Edg Adrian A. Eva

Travel sector shares tumble as US-Iran conflict disrupts flights

FREEPIK

LONDON/SYDNEY/HONG KONG — Travel shares fell sharply on Monday as escalating conflict between the US, Israel and Iran disrupted flights around the globe, forced the closure of key Middle Eastern hubs and sent oil prices surging.

Middle Eastern airports including Dubai, the world’s busiest international hub, and Doha closed for a third day, stranding tens of thousands of passengers in one of the sharpest aviation shocks in recent years.

Oil prices jumped 7% to their highest in months as Iran and Israel stepped up attacks, damaging tankers and disrupting shipments from the key producing region.

Shares in TUI, Europe’s largest travel company, dropped 7% in early trade, while British Airways-owner IAG  was down 9%, and Lufthansa and Air France-KLM down 7%. Hotelier Accor, and cruise company Carnival also fell sharply.

Analysts cited rising fuel costs, cancellations, and rerouting expenses as the main pressure points for airlines, despite most having hedged their fuel.

“We believe that an active war zone, along with the resulting flight disruptions (due to closure of airspace and airports), is likely to curb travel appetite in the region,” said B Riley Securities in a note.

Asian airlines were also hit. Japan’s ANA Holdings, Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Malaysia’s AirAsia X  and Taiwan’s China Airlines and EVA Airways all fell at least 4%.

Cathay Pacific, which fell as much as 7% before trimming losses to 2.9%, canceled all flights to the Middle East, including passenger services to Dubai and Riyadh, until further notice. “We are waiving rebooking and rerouting charges for the affected customers,” it said.

Singapore Airlines canceled flights to and from Dubai through March 7, while Japan Airlines suspended Tokyo-Doha flights.

“For (East) Asian carriers, the number of flights they have to the airports that have been shut are rather limited,” said Singapore-based independent aviation analyst Brendan Sobie. “But of course you have the potential impact of higher oil prices and the overall political/economic instability globally.”

He added that Indian carriers were particularly exposed due to heavy Middle Eastern schedules serving migrant workers and a ban on using Pakistan’s airspace on flights to and from Europe.

Air India canceled flights on Monday between India and Zurich, Copenhagen and Birmingham, as well as to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Qatar. It said flights to New York and Newark would refuel in Rome.

Data provider VariFlight said mainland Chinese airlines had cancelled 26.5% of flights to and from the Middle East from March 2 to March 8. The pattern pointed to “sharp near-term disruption but relatively limited revisions further out in the week, suggesting carriers are still holding back from broader schedule resets while monitoring developments,” it said.

PASSENGERS SCRAMBLE TO CHANGE FLIGHTS
The ripple effects have hit travelers worldwide. Dubai was the world’s busiest international airport in 2024 with 92 million passengers, according to Airports Council International, ahead of London’s Heathrow by 13 million. Doha ranked tenth.

Virgin Australia, which leases planes operated by partner Qatar Airways for flights to Doha, canceled eight flights on Monday and offered free booking changes.

Qatar Airways passengers in Sydney told Reuters they scrambled to rearrange travel with little information from the airline.

Ascanio Giorgetti, 16, and his mother Alessandra Giorgetti, from Italy, arrived to find their Qatar Airways flight to Milan via Doha cancelled. They secured an alternate route home via Los Angeles on another airline.

“We have no information at all, no answer on the phone from Qatar (Airways),” she said, adding the tickets had cost 4,000 euros ($4,708).

Jenni and Doug Stewart, both 78, were flying from Sydney to Scotland via Doha when their flight turned back halfway to Doha.

“We were told the airspace had closed and we were going back to Sydney,” Jenni said. “Suddenly we veered towards Perth and we didn’t know why, and then it changed again and went to Melbourne.”

They then flew back to Sydney. “It was chaotic in Melbourne, hundreds of people looking for even the vaguest of information,” Doug said. ($1 = 0.8495 euros) — Reuters

India’s economic growth slips to 7.8%, but still leads major nations

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses the media at the Presidential Palace in New Delhi, India, June 7, 2024. — REUTERS

NEW DELHI — India’s economic growth slowed in the October-December quarter as government spending and private investment eased, but the South Asian nation remained the world’s fastest growing major economy, helped by strong consumption.

The economy grew 7.8% in October-December from a year earlier under a new data series, slowing from 8.4% expansion in the previous quarter.

The Indian government’s projections under the new data series marginally boosted growth for financial year ending March 31. The economy is estimated to grow by 7.6% in 2025/26, the National Statistics Office said on Friday. It had been forecast to grow by 7.4% under the old data series.

For financial year 2026/27, the country’s projected economic growth has been revised to 7%-7.4% under the new series, said Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran after the data was released. In his annual report released last month, the economy was projected to grow at 6.8%-7.2% for 2026/27.

The South Asian nation will comfortably cross the $4 trillion mark in the next financial year, Mr. Nageswaran said.

INDIA ATTEMPTS TO OVERCOME TARIFF CHALLENGES
For much of the current financial year, India’s economy has contended with uncertainty from tariffs, which have weighed on exports.

In response, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration accelerated domestic reforms, including cutting consumer taxes on hundreds of items and pushing ahead with long-delayed labour reforms.

Earlier this month, New Delhi reached an interim agreement with Washington that reduces effective tariffs to 18%, easing trade tensions, although the deal has yet to be formally signed.

The US Supreme Court’s order striking down President Donald Trump’s global tariffs may improve India’s trade position in its upcoming interim negotiations. Meanwhile, Mr. Trump has announced a temporary 10% duty on all nations, including India, and promised to raise it to 15%.

PRIVATE CONSUMPTION REMAINS STRONG
Despite those pressures, private consumption remained strong, expanding by 8.7% year-on-year in the October-December period compared with an 8% expansion in the previous quarter.

Government spending rose 4.7% year-on-year in October-December, down from a 6.6% increase the previous quarter while private investment grew 7.8%, lower than the 8.4% growth a quarter ago.

Manufacturing grew by 13.3% in the third quarter, compared with 13.2% a quarter ago. Financial services and hospitality sectors held strong.

Growth in farm output, a sector which employs more than 40% of the workforce, slowed to 1.4% in the third quarter of the current fiscal year from 2.3% a quarter ago.

“Service sector performance signals a strong lift, besides double-digit growth in manufacturing,” said Radhika Rao, economist at Singapore-headquartered DBS Bank.

“The October-December quarter also benefited from indirect tax rationalisation and festive demand, in addition to a better faring rural farm sector,” Ms. Rao said.

As India’s growth has remained strong, rating agency ICRA expects the central bank to keep rates on hold, with inflation likely to rise temporarily, its chief economist Aditi Nayar said.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its key repo rate unchanged earlier this month.

STATISTICAL OVERHAUL
India has overhauled its statistical framework this year, first updating the consumer price index and now revising the GDP series to better reflect structural changes in the economy.

As part of the changes, the government has widened its data sources to include Goods and Services Tax (GST) filings, corporate financial returns and digital platform data to improve coverage of economic activity.

At the core of the GDP overhaul is the shift to adopting more granular price deflation to improve accuracy. Until now, it largely deflated only input prices, with heavy reliance on the wholesale price index.

The changes are expected to address concerns raised by the International Monetary Fund last year over India’s national accounts methodology, including the outdated 2011/12 base year and reliance on wholesale prices, for which it gave the framework a “C” rating. — Reuters

Oil surges 9% as Iran conflict disrupts Middle Eastern supply flow

REUTERS

SINGAPORE — Oil prices surged 9% on Monday after shipping in the crucial Strait of Hormuz was disrupted by retaliatory Iranian attacks following initial bombing by Israel and the United States that killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Brent crude futures rose as much as 13% to $82.37 a barrel, the highest since January 2025, before retreating to trade up $6.91, or 9.5%, at $79.78 a barrel by 0748 GMT.

US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to an intraday high of $75.33, up over 12% and the highest since June, though it later pared gains and was up $5.88, or 8.8%, at $72.90 per barrel.

Both benchmarks jumped as a sustained exchange of counterattacks damaged tankers and sharply disrupted shipments in the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway between Iran and Oman that connects the Gulf to the Arabian Sea.

On a typical day, ships carrying oil equal to about one-fifth of global demand from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Iran, and Kuwait sail through the Strait along with tankers hauling diesel and jet fuel and gasoline and other products from their refineries to major Asian markets including China and India.

A longer closure of the Strait would push oil prices higher and cause supply shortages, analysts say.

“A prolonged chokehold on oil flows risks alienating China – a key importer of Gulf crude and one of Tehran’s few major partners – while also curtailing Iran’s own export revenues. This may temper the duration of any disruption,” Sentosa Shipbrokers said on Monday.

More than 200 vessels including oil and liquefied gas tankers have dropped anchor outside the Strait, shipping data showed on Sunday. Three tankers were damaged and one seafarer was killed in attacks on Sunday in Gulf waters.

Asian economies are assessing oil stockpile availability and ways to secure alternative supply. South Korea will offer petroleum from its stockpiles to local industries if supply disruptions are prolonged, while India is exploring alternative shipping routes.

PRICES PARE GAINS
Still, prices pared gains after the steep surge in early Asian trade, which analysts attributed to buyers already factoring a risk premium into prices in anticipation of the conflict.

Brent had risen over 19% this year until Friday’s close, while WTI was trading about 17% higher.

“Markets are acknowledging the seriousness of the conflict, but are also signaling that, for now, this is a geopolitical shock, not a systemic crisis,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior analyst at Phillip Nova.

Amid the conflict, OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to a modest oil output boost of 206,000 barrels per day for April. Every OPEC+ producer is essentially producing at capacity except for Saudi Arabia, RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft said.

The International Energy Agency is in touch with major producers in the Middle East, director Fatih Birol said on Sunday. The energy watchdog coordinates the release of strategic petroleum reserves from developed countries during emergencies.

Globally, visible oil inventories stood at 7.827 million barrels, enough for 74 days of demand, which is near a historical median, Goldman Sachs wrote in a note.

Citi analysts expect Brent to trade between $80 and $90 a barrel this week amid the ongoing conflict.

“Our baseline view is that the Iranian leadership changes, or that the regime changes sufficiently as to stop the war within 1-2 weeks, or the US decides to de-escalate having seen a change in leadership and set back Iran’s missiles and nuclear program over the same time frame,” Citi analysts led by Max Layton wrote.

Analysts are also warning retail gasoline prices in the US, the world’s biggest fuel consumer, may break above $3 a gallon because of the conflict, a potentially risky result for President Donald Trump and his Republican Party ahead of midterm elections this November.

US gasoline futures surged by as much as 9.1% to $2.496 a gallon, their highest since July 2024, and were last at $2.408 a gallon, up 5.4%. — Reuters

On veteran rival’s turf, Nepal’s rapper-turned-leader takes a swing at power

A demonstrator holding Nepal’s flag celebrates at the Singha Durbar office complex that houses the Prime Minister’s office and other ministries after storming it during a protest against Monday’s killing of 19 people after anti-corruption protests that were triggered by a social media ban, which was later lifted, during a curfew in Kathmandu, Nepal, Sept. 9, 2025. — REUTERS/NAVESH CHITRAKAR

DAMAK, Nepal – Everybody wants a photograph with Balendra Shah.

The rapper-turned-politician – better known as Balen – dominating Nepal’s electoral race was surrounded by supporters in the country’s east last week, ahead of a March 5 election that could be pivotal in the mountainous nation locked between China and India.

“I am here to see Balen, even though I have a fever,” a seven-year-old girl said, at her first sighting of the centrist Rastriya Swatantra Party’s prime ministerial candidate.

Next to her, a middle-aged woman admitted she left a heart check-up midway for a photo with Mr. Shah, a former mayor of the capital Kathmandu who was catapulted into national politics last September after historic youth-led protests swept the country.

The “Gen Z” demonstrations, fuelled by popular anger against Nepal’s ruling class over rampant corruption and unemployment, left 77 people dead and forced then Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli to resign.

Mr. Shah is now taking on the four-time prime minister on the latter’s home turf, the Jhapa district from where 74-year-old Mr. Oli has won six times during his long political career.

If Mr. Shah and the RSP are able to take power, it could upend the politics of the Himalayan nation, which has been long roiled by instability wrought by established parties led by Mr. Oli and his generation of veterans.

Across wide swathes of Nepal, analysts say public sentiment is one of disenchanment with established political parties that have been given multiple opportunities to govern but failed to deliver.

These include Mr. Oli’s Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist or UML), the Nepali Communist Party comprising former Maoist rebels and the centrist Nepali Congress, which have shared power between them for decades.

Still, these groups retain some influence in parts of the country, including in hill districts such as Kavrepalanchok, where 38-year-old Raju Rasaili will cast his vote.

“In my village, there are loyal supporters of both the Maoists and the CPN-UML. I don’t think people easily let go of that kind of political loyalty,” he said.

But back in Jhapa’s Damak town, Bipana Oli, who like millions of Nepalis earns a living in the Middle East, made her choice even before flying back home from Kuwait to vote in Thursday’s election.

“How long I continue working in Kuwait as a migrant worker will depend on Balen’s victory, and the policies and job opportunities he creates,” said the 25-year-old, who is unrelated to the former prime minister.

10 SECONDS EACH
Around her, the crowd of supporters swirled, each getting about 10 seconds with Mr. Shah, dressed in a trademark dark blazer and sunglasses.

Most stayed only for the photo. Some shook his hand or engaged in a brief conversation, till Mr. Shah’s official photographer firmly instructed: “Step aside, next in line.”

Since quitting as Kathmandu’s mayor and joining the RSP in January, Mr. Shah has canvassed aggressively across Nepal, covering almost 50 of the country’s 77 districts.

His campaign, however, is anything but conventional.

Often, he prefers to drive himself, pulling over spontaneously and stepping out of the car to greet shopkeepers, farmers, students, or others, taking most by surprise, according to two aides.

During one drive through Jhapa’s Kamal town, Mr. Shah abruptly stopped the car and walked into a wedding ceremony uninvited, greeting guests before moving on, said campaign team member Surendra Bajgain.

“It’s spontaneous, his actions are instinctive and not strategic,” he said, of Mr. Shah.

In another break from standard practice, Mr. Shah has largely shunned the mainstream press, instead heavily relying on social media – where he has millions of followers – to amplify his message.

“Campaigning is easy,” Mr. Shah told Reuters during a fleeting conversation.

“It was more challenging when I ran for mayor because I was alone and I did everything on my own. Now, I have a party and a team supporting me throughout.”

That team also comprises a small group that carries laptops to campaign events to document public grievances, including noting projects that previous leaders failed to complete and those that voters want the most.

These concerns are then investigated and distilled into manifesto-like “Promise Letters” that Mr. Shah’s team distributes on the campaign trail, said Subhas Basnet, one of the note-takers.

‘NEVER SAW YOU AGAIN’
But not all voters in Jhapa are entirely convinced by Mr. Shah’s strategy.

Mahesh Rai, 35, did not mince his words when suggesting to the RSP politician he follow his rival Mr. Oli’s playbook of face-to-face campaigning.

“I think you earn votes when you visit people at their home,” he told Shah, who quietly listened and nodded, before replying with a terse: “Okay.”

On the campaign trail, clouds of dust kicked up by a convoy of more than 20 cars, some fitted with flashing emergency lights, announce the arrival of Mr. Oli, a fixture in Nepali politics since the 1990s.

In Jhapa’s rural Gauriganj, a plastic table and chair are set in advance in a village square for Mr. Oli to take a seat soon after stepping out from the car. He folds his hands in salutation, a faint smile fixed on his face.

Despite being elected from his district for decades, for many voters this is the first opportunity to see Mr. Oli up close, as the former premier changes tack to keep his political career afloat after the hit from September’s revolt.

“In previous elections, I did not always have the time to meet local residents personally,” Mr. Oli told Reuters.

“This time, we have structured the campaign in a way that allows me to stay here and interact directly with people.”

Singheswar Prasad Rajbanshi, 85, is blunt in expressing his dissatisfaction with Mr. Oli, who rose from a teenage revolutionary imprisoned for 14 years to holding key ministerial roles before becoming premier.

“Many years ago, you came here seeking my vote while I was resting on my daybed. I supported you,” Mr. Rajbanshi told the former prime minister.

“But after that, I never saw you again until now.” — Reuters

Government budget utilization slows to 42% as of end-January

BW FILE PHOTO

By Justine Irish D. Tabile, Senior Reporter

Government agencies recorded a budget utilization rate of 42.2% in January, down from 78% a year earlier, the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) said.

In a Notice of Cash Allocations (NCAs) Utilization report, the Budget department said agencies used a total of P136.29 billion during the month out of the P322.67 billion worth of NCAs released during that period.

Unused NCAs amounted to P186.38 billion, as of the end of January.

NCAs are quarterly disbursement authorities issued by the DBM to agencies, allowing them to withdraw funds from the Bureau of the Treasury for their spending needs.

In January, line departments used P132.87 billion, or 62.7% of their allotments, while P79.17 billion remained unused.

The Commission on Elections posted the highest utilization rate of 97.6% at the end of January.

This was followed by the Commission on Audit (95.1%), Department of Foreign Affairs (90.9%), Department of Tourism (89.5%), and the Department of National Defense (78.7%).

The Department of Labor and Employment posted the lowest utilization rate of 20.2% at the end of January.

The other departments with the lowest utilization rates were the Office of the Ombudsman (31.6%), the Judiciary (31.9%), the Office of the Vice-President (34.8%), and the Department of Information and Communications Technology (38.3%).

Budgetary support to state-run firms, amounting to P3.36 billion, was fully utilized as of the end of January.

Allocations to the local government units (LGUs) were only 0.1% utilized, while Metropolitan Manila Development Authority had a 30% utilization rate.

Budget watchdog Social Watch Philippines (SWP) attributed the low January utilization rate to the delay in the signing of the 2026 General Appropriations Act (GAA).

“Budget utilization depends on two major factors: the absorptive and technical capacity of agencies, and the timing of allotment and cash allocation releases by the DBM,” SWP Senior Budget Analyst Alce C. Quitalig said in a Viber message.

“The delay in signing the 2026 GAA likely contributed to the low NCA utilization by end-January 2026, driven mainly by 0.1% disbursement of the allocation to the LGUs, largely from their respective National Tax Allotment (NTA),” he added.

He said that a similar event occurred in 2019, where only 0.2% of the NCA releases of allocation to LGUs were disbursed in the first month of that year.

“But allocation to LGUs typically record over 90% spending in other years. The year-on-year drop is clearly due to unspent LGU cash allocations,” he added.

Meanwhile, Mr. Quitalig said that the 62.7% utilization rate among national government agencies, which was lower than the 70% seen in January 2025 is consistent with the four-year average of 63% and the historical low utilization trend of just above 60% since 2016.

“End-January figures should be viewed in context, nonetheless, as agencies are still setting up spending systems early in the year. NCA utilization generally improves in succeeding months, as attested by the cumulative NCA utilization monthly flow trend,” Mr. Quitalig said.

“But departments and agencies with persistently low January performance must strengthen their spending, especially on regular programs, projects, and activities, to ensure timely delivery of public goods and services,” he added.

However, Mr. Quitalig raised concerns whether spending improvement schemes implemented by the government have truly strengthened agencies’ absorptive and technical capacity or have hindered their spending performance.

“Evaluating budget reforms aimed at expediting public spending is crucial. While budget utilization is understandably modest in the first month of the year, improvements should have happened post-pandemic,” he said.

“Yet the persistently low end-January NCA utilization of the departments and agencies raises doubts about the effectiveness of spending improvement schemes such as cash-based budgeting system, GAA-as-release document and early procurement policies,” he added.

Michael L. Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., attributed the low utilization rate to the spillover effects of government underspending since the latter part of 2025 due to the anomalous flood-control projects.

“There is still caution on government spending to prevent risk of corruption,” he said in a Viber message, but noted that the national budget that was signed on January 5 was already based on better governance standards compared to previous years.

“Going forward, the government spending is expected to catch up, especially on infrastructure to make up for the underspending in the second half of 2025, but, more importantly, based on anti-corruption measures and better governance standards,” he added.

However, John Paolo R. Rivera, senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said that a low utilization rate in January is not unusual.

“It can be attributed to several factors such as post-holiday normalization, weaker new orders, input and cost pressures, and external uncertainty,” he said in a Viber message.

“At 42.2%, utilization is not alarming … it is a normal slowdown,” he added.

India offers local defense production to Philippines amid modernization push

BrahMos fired from INS Chennai during TROPEX 2017. - COMMONS.WIKIMEDIA.ORG

India’s defense industry is pitching production lines in the Philippines as Manila boosts its military modernization.

Ashish Kansal, co-chairman of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry’s defense committee, said Indian manufacturers are ready to sell systems used by India’s armed forces and set up local production to meet Philippine demand.

“We are more than willing to set up actual production bases within the Philippines, so it has the right surge capacity to produce products for its own demand,” he told a defense expo in Makati City on Monday. “We are… giving not just the second best, but the best we give our armed forces.”

The move comes as the Philippines earmarks roughly $35 billion (P2 trillion) over the next decade for warships, missiles and other platforms, mainly sourced from South Korea, Israel and the US, to bolster deterrence amid tensions with China in the South China Sea.

“Modernization, however, cannot stop at acquisition,” Philippine Major General Ivan DR. Papera, chief of the military’s modernization office, told the event organized by the Indian Embassy in Manila. “Modernization must be sustained, and sustainment requires industrial partnership.”

Reading a statement from military chief General Romeo S. Brawner Jr., he added: “Modernization without industrial capacity creates dependency.”

The remarks underline Manila’s push to strengthen its domestic defense industry under a 2024 law that encourages foreign suppliers to partner with local companies, building self-reliant capabilities with the help of trusted strategic partners.

Mr. Papera called India a “natural and strategic partner” in this effort, citing its experience in missile development, shipbuilding, aerospace, cyber systems and defense electronics.

The Philippines has already bought BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles from India. Three orders placed in 2022, worth $375 million, aim to boost anti-ship capabilities in response to repeated confrontations with Chinese vessels in contested waters.

Despite a 2016 United Nations-backed ruling voiding Beijing’s claims, China asserts sovereignty over the energy-rich South China Sea.

Manila has accused Chinese ships of using water cannons and aggressive maneuvers to intimidate Philippine vessels.

China insists its operations in the South China Sea comply with international law. — Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio

Philippine peso set for best start in 14 years on stock inflows, weak dollar

BW FILE PHOTO

The Philippine peso is set for its best start to the year since 2012, as foreign inflows into the stock market and a weak US dollar bolster the currency.

The currency is up almost 2% this year, the most since early 2012, as the currency’s rebound from a record low in January gathers pace. Investors poured money into the local stock market for two straight months, after eight years of net outflows.

Asian currencies are advancing this year, bolstered by a stronger yuan, which acts as an anchor for the region, as well as by growing bearishness over the dollar. In the Philippines, a rebound in equities is luring foreign funds with the benchmark gauge approaching bull market territory.

The currency’s gains come with a caution, however, as some analysts see the rally fading toward the year end on the prospect of interest-rate cuts. BMI, a Fitch Solutions unit, expects the currency to fall over 3% from Friday’s level to 59.50 per dollar by the year end.

“The Philippine peso’s recent strength reflects a weaker dollar, rather than a sudden improvement in domestic fundamentals,” said Brandon Ong, country risk analyst at BMI in Singapore.

BMI expects the central bank to lower rates by another 25 basis points to 4% by end-2026, which would narrow the rate differential between the US and the Philippines and weaken the appeal of the currency.

A massive corruption scandal dragged economic growth last quarter to its slowest pace in 14 years outside the pandemic in the country. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas will support the economy to the extent that it won’t spur inflation, Governor Eli Remolona said this month. — Bloomberg

State Visit

PHOTO BY RYAN BALDEMOR

Flags of the Philippines and South Korea can be seen along Ayala Bridge in Manila on Sunday ahead of the state visit of the President of the Republic of Korea Lee Jae Myung, and First Lady Kim Hea Kyung on March 3-4.

Editor’s note: In the March 2 issue of BusinessWorld, the featured photo incorrectly identified the First Lady Kim Hea Kyung as former First Lady Kim Keon Hee. We deeply regret the error.

Investors brace for a bigger backlash from Middle East war

MODELS of oil barrels and a pump jack are displayed in this illustration photo taken on Feb. 24, 2022. — REUTERS

LONDON — From being just a fringe risk, conflict in the Middle East has become a top worry for investors unsettled by the prospect of a power struggle in Iran and a protracted regional war, with ramifications for everything from global trade to inflation.

US-Israel strikes killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday, sowing chaos as Iran struck back at Gulf cities, airlines halted flights, and tankers carrying oil and other products suspended transit through the key Strait of Hormuz.

The first risk for markets is the uncertainty over what happens next in Iran, given the complexities of the Islamic Republic’s ruling system, the ideological nature of its support base, and the power of its Revolutionary Guards.

That then complicates the outlook for oil prices which have been rising for weeks, but are now hostage to what oil-producing countries do and how passage of tankers through the Middle East is affected, with big implications for inflation worldwide and even the safety of bonds hitherto deemed havens.

“Middle East tail risks have increased. Markets will reprice from geopolitical shock to regime risk shock, prolonged conflict, not just retaliation, unless Iran says it wants to negotiate,” said Rong Ren Goh, a portfolio manager in the fixed income team at Eastspring Investments in Singapore.

A bigger risk, analysts said, is complacency in markets that have assumed the fallout would be limited, like it was during last June’s “12-Day War” in Iran or during Russia’s numerous attacks on Ukraine, and dismissive of any comparisons to Iran’s 1979 regime change.

Brent crude jumped around 8% on Monday for a gain of nearly 30% so far this year, and investors have already purchased US Treasuries and gold as hedges for a variety of risks, including Middle East tensions and President Donald Trump’s erratic policies.

Gold had a record run last year and is up 24% so far in 2026. The main US stock index is up just 0.5%.

“History argues strongly in favor of selling geopolitical risk premium when hostilities start,” Barclays analysts said in a note on Saturday. “What worries us is that investors have now learned this pattern and might be underpricing a scenario where containment fails.”

Barclays analysts point to other factors that could exacerbate a selloff should the conflict escalate, such as existing concerns around the artificial intelligence boom and private credit markets.

“We would recommend not buying any immediate dip – risk-reward doesn’t seem compelling. If equities pull back enough, say over 10% in the S&P 500, there is likely to come a time to buy. But not yet,” they wrote.

WHAT’S SAFE?

Early on Monday, as oil gained, safe assets rose – with the dollar broadly higher, gold up about 1.6% and a bid for Treasuries. Benchmark Brent crude futures were up about 8.5% at $79.05 a barrel and S&P 500 futures fell 1%.

“The markets are prepared for a limited surgical strike. What is not priced in is a major strike to decapitate the regime,” said Charles Myers, chairman and founder of Signum Global Advisors, a geopolitical investment consulting firm. He was speaking before the weekend US-Israel strikes.

William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, expects a prolonged conflict affecting supply could cause oil prices to jump to around $100, potentially adding 0.6-0.7 percentage points to global inflation.

“In my view, the market has already been overestimating inflationary forces, so I don’t think this will change much. There will be more impact on Europe than US given the closer proximity of Hormuz oil and gas post-Russia,” said Tariq Dennison, a wealth adviser at Zurich-based GFM Asset Management.

“Maybe a slight short term uptick on gold, but gold has already priced in maximum geopolitical uncertainty.”

Eastspring’s Goh pointed to the steady drop in US yields, which has brought 10-year yields to below 4%.

“I’m not sure if buying US Treasuries here is a good trade, especially if oil prices spike and induce inflation, if this thing drags,” he said.

On the other hand, some analysts expect Iran will not be able to disrupt trade in the Gulf region and the impact on oil prices will be contained.

“We wouldn’t be surprised if any selloff in the S&P 500 on Monday morning turns into a rally, driven by expectations of lower oil prices once the latest Middle East war ends,” said Ed Yardeni, president of New York-based Yardeni Research.

“The price of gold might also round-trip on Monday. Bond yields might fall due to both safe-haven demand and post-war prospects for lower oil prices,” he said. — Reuters

Israel hits Tehran again after killing Khamenei, leadership council takes over

AN EXPLOSION caused by a projectile impact after Iran launched missiles into Israel following Israel and the US launched strikes on Iran, in Tel Aviv, Israel, Feb. 28, 2026. — REUTERS/GIDEON MARKOWICZ

JERUSALEM/TEL AVIV/DUBAI — Israel launched a new wave of strikes on Tehran on Sunday and Iran responded with more missile barrages, a day after the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei pitched the Middle East and the global economy into deepening uncertainty.

US and Israeli strikes – and Iranian retaliation – sent shockwaves worldwide through sectors from shipping to air travel to oil, amid warnings of rising energy costs and disruption to business in the Gulf region.

US President Donald Trump said the attack was intended to ensure Iran could not have a nuclear weapon, to contain its missile program and to eliminate threats to the United States and its allies. The US has hit more than 1,000 Iranian targets since the start of the campaign, US Central Command said.

In a video statement posted to his Truth Social site, Mr. Trump vowed military strikes will continue until “all our objectives are achieved.” He said the assault had wiped out Iran’s military command and destroyed nine Iranian navy ships and a naval building.

Mr. Trump said the Iranian military and police should lay down their arms, promising immunity for those who surrender and threatening “certain death” for those who resist. He reiterated calls for the Iranian people to revolt against the government.

“I call upon all Iranian patriots who yearn for freedom to seize this moment, to be brave, be bold, be heroic and take back your country,” Mr. Trump said in the pre-recorded video. “America is with you.”

Earlier in an interview with the Atlantic magazine, Mr. Trump said Iran’s leadership wanted to talk to him and he had agreed.

In a separate interview with the Daily Mail, he said the military campaign against Iran could continue for the next four weeks.

But the Republican president is yet to lay out his longer-term aims in Iran, which faces a power vacuum that could leave it in chaos, with unforeseeable consequences for the region.

The first US casualties of the campaign, including the deaths of three service personnel, were confirmed on Sunday.

Mr. Trump paid tribute to the three killed as “true American patriots” but warned that there will likely be more casualties. “That’s the way it is,” he said.

With the vital Strait of Hormuz closed and the Gulf cities of Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha under bombardment, the scale of the risk taken by Mr. Trump in attacking Iran months before US midterm elections that will decide control of Congress is becoming clearer.

Only around one in four Americans approve of the operation, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll on Sunday. And if Hormuz – the passage for about 20% of world oil supplies – remains closed for more than a few days, US consumers will start to feel the pressure on prices at the pumps.

EXISTENTIAL CHALLENGE FOR IRAN

The Israeli military said late on Sunday that its air force had established aerial superiority over Tehran, and that a wave of strikes across the capital had targeted intelligence, security, and military command centers.

Israel’s present focus is to undermine the Iranian government so that it collapses, an Israeli official said on condition of anonymity, adding that Israel “is acting in its own ways” to get Iranians to take to the streets.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on Sunday they had hit three US and UK oil tankers in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, and attacked military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain with drones and missiles. Shipping data showed hundreds of vessels including oil and gas tankers dropping anchor in nearby waters with traders expecting sharp jumps in crude oil prices on Monday.

Global air travel was also heavily disrupted as continued air strikes kept closed major Middle Eastern airports, including Dubai – the world’s busiest international hub – in one of the biggest aviation interruptions in recent years.

In Iran, facing its biggest existential challenge since the 1980-88 war with Iraq, President Masoud Pezeshkian said a leadership council composed of himself, the judiciary head and a member of the powerful Guardian Council had temporarily assumed the duties of Supreme Leader.

Oman’s foreign ministry said Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi had indicated Tehran was open to de-escalation. But in a post on X, Mr. Araqchi suggested Iran was ready to keep fighting.

“We’ve had two decades to study defeats of the US military to our immediate east and west,” he wrote. “Bombings in our capital have no impact on our ability to conduct war.”

It remained unclear what the longer-term prospects were for Iran to rebuild its leadership and replace the 86-year-old Mr. Khamenei, who had held power since the death of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989.

Russian President Vladimir Putin denounced Mr, Khamenei’s death as a cynical murder and China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi described it as “blatant killing”.

Israel, which has pressed successive US administrations to take action against Iran, claimed responsibility for killing Mr. Khamenei while he was in his central leadership compound in Tehran, and showed no signs of curbing its attacks.

“We have the capabilities and the targets to keep going on for as long as necessary,” Israeli military spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani said.

IRAN HITS BACK

As Iran fired renewed missile barrages across the region, air raid sirens sounded across Israel late on Sunday, warning of the latest incoming attack, including in Tel Aviv, where projectiles were seen streaking across the night sky.

Israel’s ambulance service said nine people were killed in the town of Beit Shemesh, the United Arab Emirates said Iranian attacks killed three people, and Kuwait reported one dead.

Inside Iran, some grieved for Mr. Khamenei while others celebrated his death, exposing a deep fault line in the stunned country.

Thousands of Iranians were killed in a crackdown authorized by Mr. Khamenei against anti-government protests in January, the deadliest wave of unrest since the Islamic Revolution of 1979.

Mr. Khamenei, who built Iran into a powerful anti-US force and spread its sway across the Middle East during his 36-year iron-fisted rule, was working in his office at the time of Saturday’s attack, state media said. The raid also killed his daughter, grandchild, daughter-in-law, and son-in-law.

Experts said that while his death and those of other Iranian leaders would deal Iran a major blow, it would not necessarily spell the end of Iran’s entrenched clerical rule or the sway of the elite Revolutionary Guards over the population.

His death sparked protests among Shi’ites in neighboring Pakistan, where police clashed with demonstrators who breached the outer wall of the US consulate in Karachi, leaving nine people dead. In Iraq, police fired tear gas and stun grenades to scatter hundreds of protesters who gathered outside the Green Zone in Baghdad, where the US Embassy is located. — Reuters

Filipina killed in Israel airstrike, Marcos says

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1E5S3qRkMB/?mibextid=wwXIfr

A caregiver working in Israel is the first reported Filipino fatality in the escalating conflict in the Middle East, President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. confirmed late Sunday evening.

According to the president, Mary Ann Velasquez De Vera, who hails from Pangasinan, was assisting her elderly ward to a bomb shelter when she was hit by shrapnel from falling explosives before they could reach safety.

Her identity was confirmed by her husband, who is also an overseas Filipino worker in Israel.

The government said it would extend all necessary assistance to Ms. De Vera’s family and continue to monitor the situation of Filipinos in the region, vowing to provide updates as developments unfold.

“We continue to monitor the situation of our fellow Filipinos who are in the midst of this war, as tensions persist in the Middle East,” Mr. Marcos said in Filipino in a video statement.

“Rest assured that as soon as we have information to report, I will update you immediately.”

The region is home to over 2.4 million migrant Filipino laborers, which sends a steady stream of remittances back to the Philippines each year, underpinning household consumption and supporting the broader economy.

US and Israeli forces carried out coordinated airstrikes on Iranian targets on Saturday, an operation President Donald J. Trump said was aimed at neutralizing threats to the US and stopping Tehran from advancing its nuclear weapons capabilities. – Chloe Mari A. Hufana