WASHINGTON/BEIJING — The US military campaign against Iran has put Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the back foot ahead of an expected summit with US President Donald J. Trump, who for the second time in as many months has turned America’s military against one of Beijing’s close partners.

Mr. Trump is set to arrive in Beijing at the end of March following the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a risky Caracas raid in January and the US-Israeli air war that on Saturday killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the former leaders of two countries that have been major oil suppliers for China.

It is far from clear how that meeting, which the Trump administration has said will focus on trade, will play out, or whether it will even go ahead.

Just last week, it appeared Mr. Trump would go to Beijing in a weakened position following a US Supreme Court decision invalidating many of his tariffs. But now it is Mr. Xi who may be off-balance and struggling to mount a forceful response to the biggest US military operation since the Iraq war.

While Beijing has condemned the US-led operations as “unacceptable” and called for restraint, its measured response shows both its limited ability to influence US military action and the transactional nature of its diplomatic partnerships, experts say.

China is “proving to be a feckless friend for its authoritarian allies,” Nicholas Burns, the former US ambassador to Beijing under President Joseph R. Biden, said on X.

Mr. Xi now faces the awkward prospect of feting Mr. Trump on the world stage or backing out of the proposed March 31 to April 2 meeting. Beijing has yet to confirm the summit dates.

Should Mr. Xi decide to proceed, he may do so betting that in the long run it is Washington that will be diminished if it becomes entangled in a drawn-out Middle East conflict.

Mr. Trump has said the operation against Iran could run for about four weeks, which would bring it close to the eve of the China trip.

China’s embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment on whether the Iran situation had changed plans to host Mr. Trump. Asked about the implications of the Iran strikes on talks with Mr. Xi, a White House official said Mr. Trump was “taking decisive action to eliminate major national security threats,” but did not mention China.

CHINA UNIQUELY EXPOSED
For China, the danger from the US military operation is both practical and symbolic.

China, the world’s largest buyer of Iranian oil, last year got 13.4% of its total oil imported by sea from the country. That makes it uniquely exposed to any supply disruption as the conflict unfolds, particularly in the event of a blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most vital oil export route.

While China can diversify its imports, it would suffer significant price pressure from a near-term loss of Iranian oil, tightening margins for its manufacturing base on which the Chinese economy is heavily reliant, analysts say.

The US attack on Iran also serves as a reminder to Beijing — and its partners — of the US military’s ability to strike not only in its backyard, but around the world.

“The strikes on Iran and the potential regime change will severely impact China’s interests,” said Zhao Minghao, international relations expert at Shanghai’s Fudan University.

“China is assessing the deeper intentions behind US actions in Venezuela and Iran, as the US may increase pressure on China by controlling the international energy market,” Mr. Zhao said.

None of that would have been lost on the White House, which published the dates for Mr. Trump’s China trip as it was staging for the Iran attack. A source familiar with US-China discussions told Reuters the White House was still awaiting a formal invitation from Chinese officials.

COUNTING ON LIMITED CHINESE RESPONSE
For now, the United States is betting that its Iran operation will not trigger any Chinese military response.

One US official told Reuters there wasn’t an expectation that China would provide material support to Iran during US operations, or that a continued US focus on the Middle East would embolden Beijing in the short term in the Indo-Pacific, where it has pursued a historic military buildup.

The main US concern is that difficulty in rapidly replenishing reserves of munitions would reduce “medium-term deterrence” over the threat of Chinese military action against Taiwan, the official said.

Constrained in its ability to counter the US military’s global reach, China is likely to stand back and let the United States own any Middle East chaos that results, reinforcing Beijing’s narrative that Washington is reckless and destabilizing, say analysts.

Zha Daojiong, an expert in energy security at China’s Peking University, told Reuters that Chinese officials would not feel compelled to aid Iran in the conflict and would push back against the “purely rhetorical construction” in the West that it had an alliance with Iran.

“The direct parties to the conflict make their own bed and get to sleep in it,” Mr. Zha said. — Reuters

INDIA, a fast-growing oil consumer, is the country most vulnerable to crude supply shocks if the Middle East conflict leads to a prolonged disruption in shipments from the region, mainly because of its thin reserves, analysts said.

Both China and India, Asia’s top energy consumers, source around half of their crude imports from the Middle East, but India has far less oil in storage than its neighbor and is more dependent on that region’s crude now than in the last three-plus years.

“China has at least six months’ worth of crude supplies in storage. Indian inventories are much lower though, and so (it) is much more vulnerable in this situation,” said Ajay Parmar, director of energy and refining at ICIS, a commodities research group.

The risks to two of the leading Asian economies reflect the far-reaching consequences of the Israeli and US strikes on Iran, which have triggered a regional conflict and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key bottleneck through which a fifth of the world’s oil is shipped. Global benchmark Brent crude LCOc1 rose about 7% on Monday, and a prolonged war could send the cost of fuel supplies even higher.

As of January, the Middle East accounted for about 55% of India’s crude imports, at about 2.74 million barrels per day (bpd). That’s the highest since late 2022, as the country’s refiners reduced their intake of Russian oil under pressure from Washington.

India can store enough crude and fuel to last about 74 days, Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri told lawmakers last month. Refining sources told Reuters that India’s current inventories cover only about 20 to 25 days.

UNCLEAR OPTIONS
The potential crunch could force India to seek oil elsewhere. The country will take all necessary steps to ensure fuel is available at affordable rates, the federal oil ministry said in a post on X on Monday.

The White House and the Office of Foreign Assets Control did not immediately respond to requests for comment about whether the US would assure India it could resume buying Russian oil without the re-imposition of 25% US tariffs on imports.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the Departments of Treasury and Energy would announce action on Tuesday to mitigate rising energy prices.

Asia buys close to 90% of the Middle East’s oil exports. Japan and South Korea source about 95% and 70% of their oil from the Middle East, respectively, but both have much bigger inventory buffers than India and China.

Japan’s oil reserves are equivalent to 254 days of consumption, while a South Korean government official said on Monday the country’s stockpiles can cover about 208 days.

BROADER GLOBAL RISKS
Europe and the United States aren’t major buyers of Middle East crude but would feel the pain from a prolonged interruption in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz in the form of higher global prices, analysts said.

“If we see a prolonged war, with the Strait out of use for an extended period, it would mean all countries globally competing for every incremental barrel of oil possible,” said Mr. Parmar.

Matt Smith, an analyst at Kpler, said Europe could face some challenges accessing jet fuel, as the Mideast Gulf “accounts for around 45% of (Europe’s) waterborne jet fuel imports,” he said.

The United States has cut its Middle East oil imports in recent years as it has become the world’s largest oil and gas producer. Last year it bought less than 900,000 bpd from Gulf countries, US data say.

Washington is not currently discussing a release from US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, according to a US official, but past administrations have tapped the stockpile during times of war. — Reuters

HONG KONG — The price of flights between Asia and Europe has soared after the closure of key Middle Eastern hubs due to the US-Israel war against Iran, with airline websites showing tickets on many popular routes booked out for days.

Major Gulf hubs, including the world’s busiest international airport Dubai — which normally handles over 1,000 flights a day — remained closed for ‌a fourth day on Tuesday, slashing capacity on popular routes like Australia to Europe, where Emirates and Qatar Airways normally have a high market share.

Australia’s Flight Centre Travel Group has experienced a 75% increase in calls to its stores and emergency assistance lines since the crisis began and has teams working around the clock to help disrupted customers, its Global Managing Director Andrew Stark said.

“Australians are very resilient and are already rebooking flights to the UK/Europe via alternative routes via China, Singapore, and other Asian hubs, as well as North America via hubs such as Houston,” he said.

Carriers that offer non-stop Asia-Europe flights are able to bypass the closed Middle Eastern airspace by flying north via the Caucasus then Afghanistan or south via Egypt then Saudi then Oman.

But it may add to flight times and fuel usage, driving up costs at a time when oil prices have spiked, in a move that could lead to higher fares over the longer term.

“Right now, the whole of the Middle East is out of bounds, which is a high price for some airlines,” said Subhas Menon, head of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines.

“If then Europe can only be served at a high cost, airline profitability will be undermined. At the end of the day, the price to pay is connectivity.”

ALTERNATIVE OPTIONS
Alton Aviation Consultancy said airlines operating non-stop services or through alternate hubs outside the affected region — including Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific Airways, Singapore Airlines and Turkish Airlines — may see short-term gains as passengers shift away from Gulf-based carriers.

Reuters’ checks of several airlines’ websites on Tuesday showed few near-term bookings available and high prices on offer for flights from Asia to London.

Cathay Pacific’s website showed no available economy-class seats on the Hong Kong-London route until March 11, with a one-way ticket on that day costing at least HK$21,158 ($2,705.28, $1 = 7.8210 Hong Kong dollars), falling to a more normal HK$5,054 later in the month.

For flights from Sydney to London, Qantas Airways is not offering any economy-class tickets on flights via its normal Perth and Singapore routings until March 17, when one is available for A$3,129 ($2,220.03, $1 = 1.4094 Australian dollars) one-way. For earlier dates, it has pricey options with non-traditional stopovers such as Los Angeles and Johannesburg.

Thai Airways is experiencing fully booked Europe-bound flights as European tourists opt for direct routes rather than transiting through the Middle East, according to Thailand’s Transport Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn.

A search of the Thai Airways site for travel from Bangkok to London showed tickets were sold out until late next week, and then fares were high. An economy-class ticket for a one-way flight was available for 71,190 baht ($2,265) on March 15, with prices dropping to 27,045 baht by March 18.

Taiwan’s EVA Airways said bookings for its Europe-bound flights had surged as Asian and European passengers seek alternative routing options.

Mainland Chinese airlines’ websites showed fares on China-UK routes have also surged far above normal levels, with economy-class seats largely unavailable on near-term departures.

A return economy-class ticket from Beijing to London typically costs under 10,000 yuan ($1,452.71, $1 = 6.8805 Chinese yuan renminbi), but Air China’s only option for Wednesday is business class, with a one-way ticket priced at 50,490 yuan. — Reuters