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Ang Larawan enters MMFF ‘final four’

Despite being rejected the first time around in script submissions, Loy Arcenas’ Ang Larawan finally made the cut and has been selected as one of the final four entries in this year’s Metro Manila Film Festival (MMFF).

The musical film about National Artist for Literature’s Nick Joaquin’s three-act play, Portrait of an Artist as Filipino (with music from National Artist for Music Rolando Tinio and Maestro Ryan Cayabyab),which recently had its worldwide premiere at the Tokyo International Film Festival, was previously passed over during the first round of selection of entries based on script submission.

“We are in shock because it was written by Nick Joaquin and translated by Rolando Tinio and our cast line-up is also very good… we have the best singers who can act,” singer/actress Celeste Legaspi, who serves as one of the film’s producers, told reporters at a press conference on July 4 shortly after the announcement that they were not one of the chosen four.

But after film production wrapped up, Ang Larawan‘s filmmakers decided to resubmit and now they complete the final four entries to be shown in this year’s MMFF.

Joining Ang Larawan in the lineup of selected finished films to compete are: Siargao directed by Paul Soriano, Haunted Forest directed by Regal Entertainment and Deadma Walking by Julius Alfonso.

These entries will be joined by the previously announced four films chosen via script submissions: Ang Panday by Coco Martin (real name: Rodel Pacheco Nacianceno), Almost is Not Enough directed by Dan Villegas, Gandarrapido: The Revenger Squad by Joyce Bernal and Meant to Beh directed by Chris Martinez.
The MMFF runs from Dec. 25 to Jan. 7, 2018.

Da Vinci painting of Christ sells for record $450 million

New York — A 500-year-old painting believed to be by Leonardo da Vinci has sold for $450.3 million in New York, blazing a new world record for the most expensive work of art sold at auction, Christie’s said.

“Salvator Mundi” or “Savior of the World,” which depicts Jesus Christ, more than doubled the previous record of $179.4 million paid for Pablo Picasso’s “The Women of Algiers (Version O)” in New York in 2015.

Lost for years only to resurface at a regional auction in 2005, it is one of fewer than 20 Da Vinci paintings generally accepted as being from the Renaissance master’s own hand, according to Christie’s.

All the others are held in museum or institutional collections.

Wednesday’s price was all the more extraordinary given that the oil on panel fetched only 45 British pounds in 1958, at the time believed to have been a copy, before subsequently disappearing for years.

Dated to around 1500, the work sold after 19 minutes of frenzied bidding — an incongruous Old Master in Christie’s evening postwar and contemporary sale, which attracts the biggest spenders in the high-octane world of international billionaire art collectors.

Christie’s declined to identify the buyer, other than to confirm that bids came from “every part of the world.”

The price could call into question a legal suit lodged by its Russian seller, who accused a Swiss art dealer in Monaco of allegedly overcharging him when he bought the work for $127.5 million in 2013.

The value of private sales are rarely known, but a Willem de Kooning and a Gauguin were previously thought the most expensive, sold in 2015 separately for $300 million each, according to US media reports.

– Controversy –

Auctioneer Jussi Pylkkanen opened bidding at $75 million, pulling in 45 bids from clients on the phone and in the room.

Whoops and applause rippled through the packed room as bids quickly escalated into unchartered territory, coming down to two head-to-head rivals on the telephone.

Pylkkanen eventually hammered the painting at $450 million. The final price came to $450.3 million including the buyer’s premium.

Even discounting any commission, the sale represents a tidy profit for Dmitry Rybolovlev, the boss of soccer club AS Monaco, who bought the painting in 2013.

The oligarch has accused art dealer Yves Bouvier of conning him out of hundreds of million dollars by overcharging him on a string of deals, including on the Da Vinci, and pocketing the difference.

Bouvier bought the work at Sotheby’s for $80 million in 2013. He resold it within days to the Russian tycoon, for $127.5 million.

An aide to Rybolovlev, Sergey Chernitsyn, praised the “professionalism and expertise of Christie’s” and told AFP that the sale “restores part of the value” of the billionaire’s art collection.

But the legal case would continue, he said.

A lawyer for Bouvier implied the sale undermined any possible claim against his client for fraud.

“We have always said that he (Rybolovlev) paid the right price,” lawyer Francis Szpiner told AFP. “I observe that (Bouvier) sold him a painting and four years later, he has sold it with an exceptional gain of 322 million dollars.”

Christie’s declined to comment on the controversy and had valued the painting pre-sale at $100 million.

– ‘Holy Grail’ –

So huge was interest that nearly 30,000 people flocked to see the painting at Christie’s showrooms in Hong Kong, London, San Francisco and New York, the auction house said.

The work was exhibited at The National Gallery in London in 2011, after years of research trying to document its authenticity after it was found, mistaken for a copy, in a US auction in 2005.

Christie’s experts said the painting’s rarity was difficult to overstate, calling it the “Holy Grail” for auction specialists.

For years it was presumed to have been destroyed, emerging only in 2005 when it was purchased from a US estate.

“It’s an extraordinary price for an extraordinary painting. Leonardo inspired generations and continues to inspire today,” said Francois de Poortere, head of the Old Masters department at Christie’s.

“He was a genius of his time and people still see him as that. It’s an extraordinary feeling to see the magnetism around this painting.”

The painting depicts a half-length figure of Jesus, holding a crystal orb in his left hand as he raises his right in benediction.

Christie’s says it belonged to Charles I, after possibly being made for the French royal family and taken to England by Queen Henrietta Maria when she married the English monarch in 1625.

Of the roughly 20 known contemporary copies of the Mundi, some by pupils or followers of the artist, none is of sufficient quality to support an attribution to the master himself, the auction house says. — AFP

Diversifying in FX

Many economists think the weakness of the Philippine peso will persist through 2018, no thanks to an expected more hawkish stance by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Even, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas has said it has allowed a modest and gradual depreciation of the peso as part of an adjustment “to protect the economy.”

As some analysts project the peso could slide to PHP 55 against the greenback, investment managers like Astro del Castillo, managing director of local stockbroker First Grade Holdings, are looking for opportunities to take advantage of the peso’s retreat that could sap some strength from the rallying local stock market.

Shifting funds to U.S. dollars may lessen the currency risk and even result in some exchange rate gains. But foreign currency deposit units pay very little interest while investing in dollar-denominated bonds of the government require a fairly large amount.

Mr. Del Castillo said an alternative for those seeking better yields and realize potential foreign exchange gains is to place funds in the fledgling dollar board of the Philippine Stock Exchange. And for overseas Filipino workers, such investment products are a good fit given that their incomes are in foreign currency, he added.

Only food company Del Monte Pacific Limited’s preferred shares that offer a dividend rate of 6.625% is listed on the PSE dollar board at the moment. Since listing in April at $10, preferred shares of Del Monte has hit a high of $11.10 while the peso has slipped to multiyear lows. Del Monte will be selling more preferred shares.

By December, Cirtek Holdings Philippines will debut on the dollar board. The Philippines’ leading wireless and technology company will with its 6.125% preferred shares that raised $60 million with an oversubscription of $80 million to bankroll further expansion and service debts used to acquire Quintel, a top manufacturer of smart antennas in the U.S.

The interest rate on Foreign Currency Deposit Unit FCDU deposits is around 0.5%, Philippine government dollar bond due 2021 carry a 4% coupon while Ayala Corp. recently sold dollar bonds at 5.125% interest.

The PSE introduced the dollar board late in 2016 not only to provide another alternative investment avenue but provide listed companies an additional source of funding for their capital requirements.

“It is always prudent practice to diversify your investments. And hedging against foreign exchange risk is part of that,” said Ricardo Puig, head of research at Wealth Securities.

Investors need for a foreign currency denominated investment is evident in the steadily increasing size of banks’ FCDU deposits. At the end of June, FCDU deposits have risen 7.3% to $37.23 billion compared with the$34.68 billion posted in the same period last year. That number could only rise in the face of the steady growth in OFW remittance and the earnings of the business process outsourcing industry.

Only around 38% of the FCDU deposits have been lent by banks, mostly to local borrowers, leaving a larger chunk of cash that could be mobilized to help spur economic activity.

BSP Gov. Nestor Espenilla reminded a recent business gathering about the importance of the central bank’s effort to further liberalize and rationalize the foreign exchange rules in reducing the cost of doing business and facilitate job creation.

“This forms part of a broader FX market reform agenda to enhance transparency, improve price discovery, and increase the availability of FX products, especially hedging instruments,” said Governor Espenilla. He said deepening the foreign currency market will ultimately brace the economy against external shocks and allow monetary authorities greater flexibility in handling the exchange rate.

 

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A real estate sensation

Mixed-use developments have become a truly popular concept in the real estate industry in the Philippines. One will be hard-pressed to name a big real estate company that has no mixed-used project — completed, ongoing or planned — of its own.

These sprawling developments, characterized by having dedicated spaces for residential, commercial and sometimes industrial uses, are far from being a local phenomenon. “Around the globe, [mixed-use] development has emerged as the new development paradigm in today’s cities,” writes Sarah Horsfield of Urbis, an Australian architecture and planning firm.

Some may be surprised to know that mixed-use development is not exactly new. In the words of Laura Alvarez, of The University of Nottingham, it has been around “for as long as mankind.”

“Research has revealed that complex cave systems hosted multiple uses hundreds of thousands of years ago. The Romans built large multi-use complexes across their empire. And during medieval times, people used to manufacture, sell and live in the same building,” she writes in an article for The Conversation, a news and commentary Web site.

In a 2011 applied research paper published in Georgia Institute of Technology’s SMARTech, which houses theses and dissertations, author Joshua Herndon notes that traffic congestion, increasing gasoline prices, changing consumer demographics and a longing for the sense of place and community are among the factors that have contributed to the resurgence of mixed-use development, at least in the US.

But these same factors can also explain why the real-estate concept is growing in popularity in a rapidly developing nation like the Philippines.

Local property developers are very much into it, even though building one costs big bucks. Recently, Federal Land, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of GT Capital Holdings, Inc. has partnered with Nomura Real Estate Development Co. Ltd. and Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd. to develop the $400 million retail and residential complex called Sunshine Fort Landmark in Bonifacio Global City in Taguig, which is expected to be finished in 2025.

Ayala Land, Inc. has already expended P10 billion in developing its 11-hectare mixed-use property, Cloverleaf, in Balintawak, Quezon City, whose first phase — covering an area of around five to six hectares — will likely be completed in 2022. A new mall was opened there late last month.

Meanwhile, a P30-billion township — which is another term used to refer to a mixed-use development — is being developed by Megaworld Corp. in San Fernando, Pampanga on the site of the iconic Pampanga Sugar Development Company.

Nevertheless, mixed-use developments are not universally accepted. “People don’t like the idea of sharing their residential spaces with industrial and commercial uses. Issues such as noise, smells and loss of privacy prevent some buyers from investing in mixed-use schemes,” Ms. Alvarez says.

But that is changing, if gradually. “Examples across the globe are showing that living, working, socializing and entertaining locally has multiple benefits such as shorter commuting times and a more active and engaged social life. This is true in both large cities and lower density areas,” she notes.

She continues: “What’s more, mixed-use developments can help residents to establish frequent contact and long-term relationships with others. Virtual reality and global communication systems are connecting people around the world. But they also detach people from those they are closest to. A built environment that keeps people together and offers more opportunities to meet could mitigate this problem.”

While property developers continue to expand their portfolio of mixed-use developments, they may want to focus more on amenity, which, Ms. Horsfield says, is the new value differentiator. “Developers are competing to win tenants/investors into their buildings by offering gold star amenity packages…” and these packages may include high-end, hotel-style facilities, even dog parks, dog washing stations and doggy lounges.

Mixed-use developers might also want to take into account precinct programming. “[I]t’s not just about green space, it’s what you do within it to engage, connect and entertain the community. Cinemas, markets, local exhibitions, food vans, are just some of the engagement platforms available,” Ms. Horsfield says.

“Developers must learn to work with designers and urban planners to bring together affordable, healthy, green, smart design in order to transform social outcomes. This means that today’s developers need to be sociologists, as people are now using space in fundamentally different ways.”

Living in mixed-use areas

Mixed-use development, which allows people to live, work, play and shop in one place, is becoming a more practical lifestyle. Consumer preferences for neighborhood and community features have shifted from large-scale residential developments to mixed-use developments, where residential, commercial, cultural and industrial uses blend.

Based on the National Community and Transportation Preference Survey conducted by National Association of Realtors in America, most of the respondents prefer walkable communities. The study revealed that 48% of respondents prefer to live in communities containing houses with small yards but within easy walking distance of the community’s amenities.

The poll also showed that millennials (ages 18 to 34 years old), which comprise the highest percentage of first-time homebuyers, prefer to live in a place where shops and restaurants are walking distance or only requires a short commute. They favor developing communities where people do not need to drive long distances to work or shop.

For many, walkable community means living in a community where everything you need comes in one place. But, is living in a mixed-use community fits your lifestyle and preferences? To help you decide, here are the pros and cons of living in mixed-use developments as identified by an online property company in Asia, PropertyGuru.

The first advantage of living in a mixed-use community is convenience. In PropertyGuru’s Web site, it explains that the best thing about living in a mixed-use development is residents don’t need to travel far from the comfort of their home to do some retail or grocery shopping.

Second, although mixed residential developments usually fetch a higher price, it is still considered as a good investment. Such developments are in demand due to its added benefits in terms of accessibility in commercial establishments. Thus, the cost is justifiable enough.

Residents in mixed-use community get to save money and time on fuel and parking. Since the essential establishments are walking distance, residents don’t have to use their car and spend some money for fuel. They are also free from experiencing the hassle of looking for parking spaces that could ruin their schedule and could cost them additional expense.

Above all of these, PropertyGuru says that convenience drives mixed-use community the most. “In a society where work takes up more than three quarters of a day, having shops and other amenities near home is a welcomed addition. Instead of travelling 15 minutes or half an hour to the nearest mall for some window shopping, residents can simply take the lift down and walk around leisurely without worrying about travel time overlapping with dinner or bedtime,” PropertyGuru says.

On the other hand, the worst thing about mixed-use developments is it can easily become overcrowded. Although the shopping malls and other establishments are originally meant to cater the residents, it is still open for everyone. Thus, the level of noise can get unmanageable, especially when there are bars and pubs in the vicinity.

And since high-income earners are usually the ones able to afford residential units in mixed-use community, prices of goods in shops and restaurants are largely driven up. “As a result of this, the disparity of wealth will only shape the neighborhood in favor of the target demographic, creating an unbalanced population model in the country,” the site says. — Mark Louis F. Ferrolino

The ‘mini cities’ of Manila

Fun fact: Did you know that much of the area that is now known as the city of Makati was once a hacienda called ‘San Pedro de Macati’? The hacienda was owned by the Zóbel de Ayala family, and included the Nielson Airport, the Philippines’ primary airport in the 1930s.

It does not take much imagination to see how much the country’s real estate landscape has evolved since then, with the rise of developments like Bonifacio Global City and McKinley Hill. As the Philippines grows wealthier, the real estate industry only becomes hungrier for new types of property to develop.

The rise of the township, or the mixed-use development, serves as an example. Here are a few of the most notable ones in Manila.

Ayala Center

Perhaps one of the most prominent mixed-use developments in the metro, the Ayala Center is a recreational, shopping, dining, and entertainment development located in the heart of Makati. The property includes hotels and several malls, including Ayala’s Glorietta and Greenbelt malls, all of which offer options for shopping, dining, gaming arcades, and cinemas. The Ayala Museum is also an attraction, with displays and exhibits on Philippine history and art.

The Ayala Center development originally started as separate shopping arcades and Greenbelt Park in 1988, before an expansion was launched to cover more than 50 hectares of facilities. It is located in the middle of Ayala Avenue, Epifanio de los Santos Avenue, Arnaiz Avenue, Paseo de Roxas and Legazpi Street.

Araneta Center

Considered as one of the central hubs of northern Metro Manila, the Araneta Center hosts numerous shopping establishments, hotels, office complexes, and the Araneta Center-Cubao MRT and LRT stations. Among the highlights of the area are Farmers Plaza, Gateway Mall, SM Cubao, the Aurora and Gateway Towers.

Acting as a centerpiece of the property is the Smart Araneta Coliseum, one of the largest multi-purpose indoor arenas in Asia. The Kia Theatre, set to be the country’s leading performing arts venue, Novotel Manila, a deluxe business hotel connected to Gateway Mall, are also situated within the center.

Eastwood City

Eastwood City, a 17-hectare development located in the Bagumbayan area of Quezon City, hosts multiple luxury residential condominium towers, the BPO-targeted office complex, malls, a hotel, a supermarket, and a police and fire station. The property was launched in 1997.

The most significant feature of the complex is Eastwood City Cyberpark, a BPO-targeted office complex which include the 20-storey Global One Center and the 10-storey 1880 Eastwood Avenue. The cyberpark is listed as an approved IT Center by the Philippine Economic Zone Authority, making export-oriented companies located therein eligible for temporary tax holiday, permanent reduced rate of corporate income tax, and other incentives.

Rockwell Center

Among the high-end mixed-use areas in Metro Manila is the Rockwell Center. First developed in 1998, the property has been expanding since 2012, with architectural firm Skidmore, Owings & Merrill drawing out the design. Features of the Rockwell Center include corporate office buildings, residential condominiums, a law and business school. The jewel of property is the Power Plant Mall, an upscale four-level shopping and dining complex at the heart of Rockwell Center.

The Proscenium at Rockwell will expand on the property with four new residential towers, office tower, and shopping areas, creating residential, retail, office, amenity and cultural spaces suited for the live-work-play lifestyle. — Bjorn Biel M. Beltran

Embracing challenges for growth and opportunities: ASP holds 58th Annual Convention

By Bjorn Biel M. Beltran

The internationally recognized Actuarial Society of the Philippines (ASP) is hosting its annual two-day convention from Nov. 16 to 17 at the Misibis Bay Resort, Cagraray Island in Bacacay, Albay.

The convention, which welcomes local and foreign professionals, is being held under the theme “Embracing Challenges for Growth and Opportunities.” Acting as the capstone to the organization’s various activities throughout the year, which include its general membership meetings, fellowship activities, sportsfest and professional development workshops, the convention also acts as the venue for professionals and other industry leaders to discuss significant issues and developments that are making an impact to the actuarial profession.

“Ten local and foreign experts will be discussing topics on diverse practice areas that relate to or affect the actuarial professionals,” ASP Vice President Jesselyn V. Ocampo told BusinessWorld.

“These topics were suitably chosen to stimulate the minds of the delegates to identify potential areas of growth and opportunities in their respective professions. In doing so, actuaries can face continually emerging professional challenges and become active and relevant participants in shaping and developing their respective organizations,” she added.

Ms. Ocampo also said that the convention will include a fellowship night, which will give the actuaries a venue to foster camaraderie to boost dynamic participation in the society’s current and future activities, and conclude in an induction night where a new set of ASP officers will take their oaths.

New risks, new challenges

Actuaries play an essential role to industries like insurance, pre-need and health maintenance organizations (HMOs), as they provide companies the means to assessing risks and measuring their financial possible impact. Financial service organizations and the academe also rely on actuaries for statistical, economic and financial analyses to make calculations and projections for a wide range of practical business problems. Actuaries are also used by many companies for their employee benefits and retirement plan consulting needs.

Life and non-life insurance companies and pre-need companies are strictly required to use actuaries in regulatory certification requirements such as for the valuation of future benefits to be paid and the development of new products. The HMO industry has recently been included in this list of companies being required to use actuaries, with the ASP actively assisting the Insurance Commission (IC) in drafting important circulars for the industry.

The ASP also aides the IC in technical working groups such as those organized to review guidelines for variable unit-linked life insurance products and to help companies prepare for the implementation of the new International Financial Reporting Standards 17 for insurance contracts.

Additionally, with the onset of developments in technology posing new risks to businesses, actuaries are getting involved in fields like cybersecurity, data analytics, and big data.

“The actuary can help try to manage risk by finding ways to measure it and make it tangible. Then once you’re able to measure risk, you’ll be able to mitigate it,” Froilan Emilio S. Racela, ASP president, told BusinessWorld.

Disruptive technologies and industries are drastically affecting how many companies operate, and the need for skilled actuaries grows ever greater. Mr. Racela said that one challenge for the actuarial profession in this changing industry landscape is the ongoing push for actuarial career relevance among students. Despite being one of the highest paying careers and consistently being ranked as one of the best professions in the world, as a profession unbeknown to many, and one where there are only about 70 Fellows in practice in the entire country, actuaries have a difficult time attracting new blood into the fold. Fellows are those who have fully completed the stringent actuarial exam requirements which are needed to be able to sign as an actuary.

“The question is how will we be able to keep ourselves attractive to the younger generation,” he said. “We’re still not as well-known as accountants, doctors, and engineers. We haven’t really been promoting ourselves. It’s in our plans but I think we can still do a better job at it,” Mr. Racela said.

“It’s always been our dream to multiply our number. One of our goals in our #ASP2020 strategic plan with the theme ‘Actuaries Set for Progress’ is to significantly grow our number. Now, we’re just about 70 fellows. Perhaps we can double that by 2020 with a total of 300 fellows and associates,” he added.

A community of actuaries

The ASP’s 58th Annual Convention aims to support the plans to increase the commitment and engagement of the members of the ASP. Mr. Racela noted that the first step for the growth of the profession will naturally be to strengthen its foundation: the technical knowledge and skill of the actuaries themselves.

“Just recently, the vision came to me that the ASP should be a community of actuaries, not just an organization, but a community. In a community, you are like brothers and sisters taking care of each other,” he said.

Part of the ASP’s initiatives for the year included a new Learning and Development Education Series that serves as a series of workshops on essential actuarial tasks towards developing the best practices and approaches. More than 25 ASP Fellows and Associates are involved with the series, acting as mentors to younger members of the ASP seeking to hone their craft. Knowledge and work experience are being shared unselfishly.

By making sure that everyone in the organization will be able to do their job well, Mr. Racela pointed out that the ASP will be able to increase the engagement and commitment of its members and transform the society into a community.

“That’s a vision that we should push for. We should not just be a professional organization concerned about how to do our own work, but more concerned about the people behind the profession, the actual members,” he said.

“In 2017, the ASP lost two stalwarts of the actuarial profession, Isagani de Castro and Ines Belleza. Mr. De Castro and Ma’am Belleza were instrumental in the development of the actuarial profession in the Philippines and we would like to honor them for all their contributions, especially how they helped support the careers of future actuaries. And this should really be what ASP is all about, a community of actuaries,” he added.

Weekend Watch: Ikarus Theatre Collaborative’s Bastion

There are two opposing old schools of thought when it comes to discussing the morality of man and why we need laws to govern us—naturalism and positivism. Saint Thomas Aquinas, the prime philosopher on natural law theory, believes that man is inherently good. God, who is good, gave us an innate sense of morality so that we would seek out his teachings and guidance even if we’ve never heard of him before. Law, therefore, is based on what God wants us to be. On the other hand, positive legal theory does not anchor itself on the supposed innate goodness of man, and that political leaders create laws for our fellow men to prevent ourselves from descending into chaos. Law, therefore, is based on what we set for ourselves.

Yet in Jay Crisostomo IV’s Bastion, a play staged by Marikina‑based Ikarus Theatre Collaborative, both the highest legal and religious authorities of the fictional city of Bastion came up with the same solution to solve the food crisis as the 45‑year long winter continues to rage. First, we sacrifice the old, then the infirm, and if worst comes to worst, the young. The law was implemented for the city’s survival, so that there will still be people left when winter is over. In the end, only The Mayor, The Nun, and the youngest of their eight children, Lilith, is left in the small city that has seemingly been forgotten by the national government. Oh, and by sacrifice we mean eat. Because what else can you eat in a world where nothing else grows?

While most stories begin on how this situation came to be, Bastion puts us at a time when winter is about to end. A masked Stranger, emissary of the national government— accompanied by his subordinates, the cheerful Petra and the morose Maximus— arrives to Bastion to announce that the time of plenty is coming. No longer will they want for food. No longer will they have to eat their own.

Now they must face the consequences of survival.

The play, penned by Crisostomo, marks the end of the season for the 2017 season of the Marikina‑based theater group, to be held at their home theater Dito: Bahay ng Sining starting the 17th of November. Members of the press were treated to a preview of the play’s first act last Friday, as well as a drink from the attached bar and café. Dito is also owned by Crisostomo, who hopes to create an affordable space for artists to stage plays, hold events, and just meet and chill in general.

As a big fan of celebrations of the macabre and the occasional pointless musings on what makes a man and what separates him from the monster, I enjoyed the play a lot. It’s so bloody you can almost taste the tang on the tip of your tongue. While there are obvious physical limits to theater (it was made to be affordable, after all), the actors make use of every little space until we are transported to another country— cold, cruel, desolate— a seeming exact opposite to the Philippines. In fact, being trapped in a small space with all these talented people can be overwhelming, and you’re forced to think of all these gory things whether you want to or not.

It’s also clear that friendship is a major driving force for the people of Ikarus Theatre Collaborative. Everyone— the actors, the production team, the writer— knows one another as friends and as friends of friends who eventually became friends. It’s this personal relationship between them that ensures that they come up with a production that both the crew and the audience can enjoy.

Bastion will run from November 17 to November 25. Check out Ikarus Theatre Collaborative’s facebook page for more info.

Q3 growth beats market expectation

By Elijah Joseph C. Tubayan
Reporter
and Melissa Luz T. Lopez
Senior Reporter

ECONOMIC EXPANSION last quarter beat market expectations, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported on Thursday, affirming the country’s place among Asia’s fastest-growing major economies and firming expectations among some analysts of interest rate hikes by next year.

Q3 growth beats market expectation

Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 6.9% last quarter — the fastest clip in four quarters though slightly slower than the year-ago 7.1% — which Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto M. Pernia yesterday attributed “to sustained strong growth in exports and improvements in public spending, which then boosted the manufacturing sub-sector and the services sector.”

The actual pace topped the 6.6% median in a poll of economists BusinessWorld conducted late last week that also matched Moody’s Analytics’ own estimate.

The third-quarter clip fueled year-to-date GDP growth to 6.7%, already above the lower end of the government’s 6.5-7.5% full-year target for 2017 but still slower than the 7.1% logged in 2016’s first three quarters.

Mr. Pernia noted that the Philippines third-quarter pace already beats China’s 6.8% and Indonesia’s 5.1% for the same three months, though trailing Vietnam’s 7.5%. Markets are awaiting July-September GDP data to be reported on Nov. 30 by India, which is one of the major Asia economies to which the Philippines is also compared.

BY INDUSTRIAL ORIGIN
Services continued to lead as GDP growth driver, contributing 4.2 percentage points to expansion.

This sector, which accounted for 49.1% of national output, grew by 7.1% last quarter, faster than the preceding three months’ 6.3% and the year-ago 6.8%. Services’ growth, however, slowed to 6.7% year to date from the 7.5% recorded in last year’s comparable three quarters.

Industry, which contributed 27.8% to GDP and 2.5 points to growth, saw its expansion edge up to 7.5% from the second quarter’s 7.4%, even as this was a slowdown from the year-ago 8.8%. Industry’s growth slowed to 7.1% year to date from 8.5% in 2016’s comparable period.

Growth of agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing — which accounted for 6.6% of GDP and contributed 0.2 of a point to growth — slowed to 2.5% from the second quarter’s 6.3% and the 3.0% clocked in 2016’s third quarter. But this sector saw a year-to-date turnaround to 4.6% growth from a 1.3% contraction the past year.

BY EXPENDITURE TYPE
Household consumption remained a key anchor of the economy, accounting for 55.7% of GDP in the third quarter.

Growth of household spending, however, eased to 4.5% last quarter from the preceding three months’ 5.9% and the 7.2% recorded in July-September 2016. The third-quarter pace tempered year-to-date increase to 5.4% from the 7.3% logged in 2016’s comparable nine months.

Mr. Pernia, in yesterday’s briefing, blamed the slowdown on increasing oil, utilities and food prices. “Some factors would include the rise in oil, gasoline and fuel prices. Also there were some upward adjustments in electricity and water (tariffs) and also some food items were rising somewhat,” he replied when asked for an explanation.

Another major contributor, in terms of expenditure, was exports, consisting of both goods and services, which contributed 53.8% to GDP. Total exports grew 17.2% — the slowest in three quarters — picking up from the 9.0% clocked in 2016’s third quarter. Similarly, year-to-date growth picked up to 19.2% from 9.9%.

Under capital formation — which contributed 23.1% to GDP and grew 6.6% compared to the second quarter’s 8.5% and the year-ago 21.7% — construction (contributing 8.2%) growth slowed to 2.8% from the second quarter’s 7.6% and from the 18.8% of 2016’s third quarter. “The growth was driven by the increase in public construction but was weighed down by the modest growth in private construction,” PSA said in its report.

Growth of government final consumption expenditure, which accounted for 8.7% of national output, picked up to 8.3% from the second quarter’s 7.1% and the year-ago 3.1%.

“In the past, economic growth usually took a deep nosedive after an election year,” Budget Sec. Benjamin E. Diokno said in a separate statement, adding that “government spending continued to be a robust driver of growth, contributing 0.9 percentage point to growth.”

“On the supply side, public construction also posted a 12.6% growth rate,” according to the same statement of the Budget department.

MONETARY POLICY VALIDATED
“The strong Q3 GDP growth together with manageable inflation are in line with our expectations and validate current policy settings,” BSP Governor Nestor A. Espenilla, Jr. told reporters in a mobile phone message.

“GDP growth also remains within current potential which will expand further in the future as investments in both physical and human capital ramp up.”

The Monetary Board kept borrowing rates unchanged in last week’s review, even as the overall increase in prices of basic goods and services clocked a three-year-high 3.5% in October. Inflation averaged 3.2% in the 10 months to October, matching the BSP’s estimate for the entire 2017.

Sought for his outlook, Mr. Pernia replied: “We expect the growth of fourth quarter GDP will be higher, or at least match the third quarter performance.”

Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines, meanwhile, said in an e-mailed response to queries: “I expect GDP to grow significantly like that of 3Q” on the back of “still robust growth from the usual drivers” of household consumption — fueled by remittances from overseas Filipino workers — business process outsourcing sales, as well as a continued improvement in state spending.

“The strong Q3 2017 GDP growth rate means that the Philippines economy is estimated to achieve sustained robust growth of over 6.0% per year for the sixth year in a row,” said Rajiv Biswas, Asia Pacific chief economist at IHS Markit, noting that growth is seen to “exceed 6.0%” per year from 2018 to 2020.

Mr. Biswas, however, said a pickup in world crude prices and rapid credit growth could prompt the BSP to introduce a rate hike by next month.

Nomura Global Research even penciled a seven percent growth for the fourth quarter to secure a 6.7% average for the full year.

ANZ Research economists said latest growth data could prompt them to raise their 6.5% forecast for the entire year, even as they noted “intensifying” imbalances that could prompt two rate hikes from the BSP between January and March.

Asked whether the faster-than-expected growth pace raises the specter of overheating, BSP’s Mr. Espenilla replied that the economy is “not there yet.”

“That begins to be a concern if we’re persistently growing above potential,” the BSP chief told reporters.

“To keep growing strongly without overheating, we expand potential itself-through high quality investments funded in a sustainable manner,” he explained.

On the statistical probability of a windfall

By Nickky Faustine P. De Guzman

Her love stories spring from serendipity: an e-mail sent to the wrong person, a chance encounter at an airport, and getting stuck in an elevator. Jennifer E. Smith, the author behind the young adult (YA) books This is What Happy Looks Like, The Statistical Probability of Love at First Sight, and The Geography of You and Me, believes in fate and chance.

“I’ve been obsessed with moments in time that act as hinges, a split on before and after. Yesterday your life is one way and tomorrow it’s entirely different. I just love exploring themes on fate, timing, and chance,” said the author whose books have been translated into 33 languages.

Her brand is about happenstance, and she’s happy to find this voice as a writer to set herself apart from other novelists.

“Ever since I wrote the Statistical Probability of Love at First Sight I’ve got so many comments from readers who have met the love of their lives on a plane. These things absolutely happen in real life, and that’s what makes them fun to read,” she said.

It follows that her latest book, Windfall, is about statistics: What are the odds of winning the lottery?

Alice, who is secretly in love with her best friend, Teddy, buys him a lottery ticket as a birthday gift. Their friendship and love story are soon changed after he wins $140 million.

“Everybody has areas of interest, and about chances happen to be mine,” she said in an interview with BusinessWorld on Nov. 9, two days before she held a book signing in Cebu.

Always drawn to tales of good luck, the book she is currently writing, well, follows the same theme: a love story set in a train traveling from New York to San Francisco. It’s not yet done, and she feels no pressure to finish it anytime soon, since the book won’t be out until 2019. In between travelling for work and pleasure, she sits down to write, but she is quick to share that the right words don’t often come out.

“I try to write every day but it always doesn’t shake out. I don’t have a strict process, I wish I was more methodical but I’m in the mindset where if it’s not working in a day I don’t get stuck there in my computer for hours. I go out and take a walk or something. But if there’s something, on the flip side, if it’s working really well I’ll cancel my dinner plans and work through the night. Keep it going,” she said.

Asked about the significance of the written word in the “post-truth” digital age of “fake news,” she said fiction will always provide optimism.

“At times like these when you think the world is falling apart, you worry that it is less to be writing small stories. But it is actually the small stories that provide hope and empathy. I’m a firm believer that books are the lights in the crack — and we are in darkness right now. I think in a way it is more important than ever to be writing stories that are full of hope,” she said of her novels.

“It’s too broad to say that all YAs are escapism, but you can call my books as such,” she said.

Her books may be anchored on love stories, but they tackle universal stories on ambition, family, friends, and achieving dreams.

Her stories are also bankable when translated from page to the screen. At this moment, the team behind The Statistical Probability of Love at First Sight movie production is castings. Dustin Lance Black (Milk) wrote the script and will direct the film adaptation.

Still, the written words are always better than the moving pictures, she confessed. “I would like to think that any movies made from my books would be an exception because it only gets better with other people’s visions and interpretations, but in general, I do think that books are better than movies. You know, it’s a translation. It’s not the same thing, and I do tend to love books more than the movie,” she said, smiling.

But then again, we might as well visit the movie houses — and bookstores — because who knows what we might find there. A new love, perhaps?

Q&A WITH JENNIFER E. SMITH

Some people are very snobbish about YA because they think it’s too mushy or it’s for the kids only, how do you change these notions?

I think everyone was 16 once. There’s a wonderful nostalgia to YA. There’s so many great stories and writers working on the genre right now. There’s so many disparaging articles written about teens, but try to read books about them, see where they are coming from, what they are thinking. They are good books that just happened to be about 16-year-olds.

How has social media and the Internet changed the art of writing?

It can be a distraction, so I try to limit myself so I’m not perusing all day. I try to do it in chunks of time and give myself 20 minutes in the afternoon and at night, for example, but less focus on reading because of the political climate in the US where it’s a little bit bleak sometimes to be there all day. You sometimes need to step away but then it is important to keep up with what’s happening. I found it a lot harder this year than ever before. I particularly love Instagram, but I am not so active that it hindered my writing but I learned a lot by following other writers on Twitter. Following even If I’m not talking [to them] I learn a lot.

How do you deal with feedback, especially the bad?

I try to tune out, not because I don’t appreciate what people say. Sometimes it’s a huge privilege for me when people take the time to read and comment. If you read a review that is 99% great, that one thing that is negative is what you will remember a year from now. So it can be really hard, it can be distracting. And I don’t want to be crowdsourcing based on what people think should happen. Once it is out of my hands, it does not belong to me anymore, but the readers. They are completely entitled to their opinions, the same way I am entitled to mine when I read.

What would you do if you win the lottery like your character, Alice in Windfall?

I think there are a lot of themes in the book Windfall about good deeds, random kindness, and volunteering, and those are things that are important to me. There are, of course, things that I’d want to do that are a little bit more personal or selfish. I would love to travel even more than I already do, [would] love to buy cottage in Scotland. There are things I want to buy, like a bookstore. There’s something invigorating about the idea of winning enough money to help people’s dreams come true, especially now, it is so important to give kindness to the world. I don’t really play the lottery, and the odds are small, but you never know.

Final ASEAN chairman’s 31st summit statement now even softer on China

THE FINAL version of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) chairman’s statement at the end of the bloc’s 31st summit — released to media more than a day after heads of state ended their meeting — turned out even softer on China than the diluted final document of the 30th leaders’ meeting last April.

ASEAN 50 logo

Both statements were issued under the Philippines’ chairmanship of ASEAN this year.

A copy of the statement, released yesterday, was markedly softer than the one issued at the end of the 30th summit in that it did not even mention differences among leaders on the bloc’s approach to China’s assertive behavior in the South China Sea.

The draft in April had cited “land reclamation and militarization that may further complicate the situation…” in a reference to China’s building spree and installation of weapons systems in the disputed area. That mention was deleted in the final statement of the 30th summit which nevertheless “took note of concerns expressed by some leaders over recent developments in the area.”

Presidential Spokesperson Harry L. Roque, Jr. had said in a press briefing on Monday that “at least two to three” ASEAN leaders again raised the matter despite President Rodrigo R. Duterte’s attempt to keep the dispute off talks.

The chairman’s statement on the 31st summit that ended last Tuesday carried a section on the South China Sea that “took note of the improving relations between ASEAN and China” and encouraged the “conclusion of a substantive and effective” code of conduct for the South China Sea (CoC).

CoC talks are scheduled to start early next year after ASEAN and China adopted the framework for negotiations last August, about 15 years since both parties signed a vaguely worded Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DoC) on Nov. 4, 2002.

Analysts have since cautioned that much remains to be seen in any time table that may result from next year’s talks and whether anything can even be enforced, especially since China has persisted in reclaiming land and building structures despite agreements among claimants to keep the status quo in the disputed area.

A landmark ruling by an arbitration court in the Hague last year said Beijing’s basis for its claim to much of the South China Sea — the so-called nine-dash line — did not have legal weight. But Mr. Roque told reporters yesterday that the ruling did not have any bearing on next year’s CoC talks since it concerned only the Philippines and China.

“We reaffirmed our commitment to the full and effective implementation of the DoC in its entirety, and the importance of undertaking confidence building and preventive measures to enhance… trust and confidence among parties,” read the ASEAN chairman’s statement on the 31st summit, noting “the successful testing” of a hotline among foreign ministries of claimant countries “to manage maritime emergencies in the South China Sea”.

It also said parties are now working to put into operation the Joint Statement on the Observance of the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea in the South China Sea.

“In our view, these are practical measures that could reduce tensions and the risks of accidents, misunderstandings and miscalculation,” the statement read.

“We likewise reaffirmed the importance of maintaining and promoting peace, security, stability, maritime safety and security, rules-based order and freedom of navigation in and overflight above the South China Sea.”

The 31st summit statement also remained silent on the plight of Myanmar’s Rohingya minority which United Nations officials have described as being tantamount to ethnic cleansing. Non-interference in members’ internal affairs has long been a key ASEAN principle.

At the same time, ASEAN “expressed grave concern over the recent provocative and threatening actions, including the nuclear test, by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea on 3 September 2017 and its ballistic missile tests over the past year…” — R.A. Zamora

More govt’s manipulate media with ‘bots,’ trolls — study

WASHINGTON — More governments are following the lead of Russia and China by manipulating social media and suppressing dissent online in a grave threat to democracy, a human rights watchdog said last Tuesday.

A study of Internet freedom in 65 countries found that 30 governments are deploying some form of manipulation to distort online information, up from 23 the previous year.

These efforts included paid commentators, trolls, “bots” — the name given to automated accounts — false news sites and propaganda outlets, according to the Freedom on the Net 2017 report by human rights group Freedom House.

The report said online manipulation and disinformation tactics played an important role in elections in at least 18 countries over the past year, including the United States.

“The use of paid commentators and political bots to spread government propaganda was pioneered by China and Russia but has now gone global,” said Michael Abramowitz, president of Freedom House.

“The effects of these rapidly spreading techniques on democracy and civic activism are potentially devastating.”

Sanja Kelly, director of the Freedom on the Net project, explained such manipulation is often hard to detect, and “more difficult to combat than other types of censorship, such as website blocking.”

The organization said 2017 marked a seventh consecutive year of overall decline in internet freedom, as a result of these and other efforts to filter and censor information online.

Freedom House said China was the world’s worst abuser of internet freedom for a third straight year, due to stepped-up online censorship, a new law cracking down on anonymity online and the imprisonment of dissidents using the Web.

Other countries also increased their efforts to censor and manipulate information, the report said.

This included a “keyboard army” of people employed and paid $10 a day by the Philippine government to amplify the impression of widespread support of a brutal drugs crackdown, and Turkey’s use of an estimated 6,000 people to counter government opponents on social media.

Meanwhile, as Russia sought to spread disinformation to influence elections in the US and Europe, the Kremlin also tightened its internal controls, the report said.

Bloggers who attract more than 3,000 daily visitors must register their personal details with the Russian government and abide by the law regulating mass media — while search engines and news aggregators are banned from including stories from unregistered outlets.

The study also found governments in at least 14 countries restricted internet freedom in a bid to address content manipulation. In one such example, Ukraine blocked Russia-based services, including the country’s most widely used social network and search engine, in an effort to crack down on pro-Russian propaganda.

“When trying to combat online manipulation from abroad, it is important for countries not to overreach,” Ms. Kelly said.

“The solution to manipulation and disinformation lies not in censoring websites but in teaching citizens how to detect fake news and commentary. Democracies should ensure that the source of political advertising online is at least as transparent online as it is offline.”

Freedom House expressed concern over growing restrictions on VPNs — virtual private networks which allow circumvention of censors — which are now in place in 14 countries.

It said internet freedom also took a hit in United States over the past year.

“While the online environment in the United States remained vibrant and diverse, the prevalence of disinformation and hyper-partisan content had a significant impact,” the report said.

“Journalists who challenge Donald Trump’s positions have faced egregious online harassment.” — AFP

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