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Exxon sees oil demand down 20% by 2040 or maybe it’ll be up

If climate change curbs live up to their promise, oil demand may fall 20% by 2040, Exxon Mobil Corp. says in one forward-looking report. But a more likely scenario is it will grow by 20%, the company says in separate outlook.

The reports were both released Friday. Which one to believe?

The first comes in response to a shareholder vote last year that demanded Exxon publish the risks it faces if the world hits its carbon-emissions goal to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The second is what the Irving, Texas-based explorer uses “to help guide multibillion-dollar investment decisions,” according to its preamble.

In both instances, the study authors say the world will still need trillions of dollars of investment in fossil fuels to meet its energy needs over the next two decades.

The business outlook, as might be expected, is more hawkish. Its findings show oil and natural gas still supplying about 55% of the world’s energy needs by 2040, with oil the biggest contributor. Coal is expected to fall to less than 30% in 2040 from approximately 40% in 2016.

Electric and hybrid cars will approach 40% of light-vehicle sales by 2040, compared to 3% in 2016, it said.

The climate change report says oil demand will drop to 78 million barrels a day by 2040 under a scenario whereby global temperatures do not rise by more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100.

Both reports show demand for natural gas rising strongly.

Darren Woods, Exxon’s chief executive officer, says in that report the company needs “to meet society’s growing need for energy while addressing the risks of climate change.”

That’s not enough to appease climate change campaigners.

“ExxonMobil’s own analysis assumes the world will continue to burn through oil and gas to drive their profits and keep us on a path toward global temperatures well above the 2 degree Celsius target,” said Kathy Mulvey, a campaign manager at the Union of Concerned Scientists, in an e-mail.

“Nowhere do they foresee carbon emissions bending rapidly toward zero — as they must well before 2040,” she wrote. — Bloomberg

BPM: Innovating and transforming business

Organizations continually aim to increase profits by reducing costs and increasing efficiency. This has been the mantra since the first wave of process improvement initiatives in the 1970s and 1980s where Total Quality Management, process improvement methods and statistical process control where the leading enablers. However, traditional businesses underwent dramatic changes in the late 1980s due to globalization and the removal of trading barriers. Many organizations reassessed their take on performance improvement and began adopting a process-centric approach called Business Process Management (BPM) to improve their performance and reduce cost.

BPM has evolved significantly since the 1990s (when process reengineering and Six Sigma were all abuzz) and has now reached the stage for the third wave in BPM methods. Organizations today use various long-term strategies such as automation, resource optimization, process standardization and process re-engineering to achieve cost reduction and operating-model effectiveness. All these strategies have processes at their core. Unfortunately, few organizations truly recognize how easily they can reach operational efficiencies through BPM. Every organization has its own business processes that, if left unmanaged, can potentially become complicated. As activities or tasks go from person to person, it can be difficult to keep a high-level perspective on what is actually going on.

On the other hand, technological advancements such as the rise of social media and mobility, demand that businesses transform in order to remain relevant. Hence, companies are under constant pressure to innovate in products and reengineer processes to stay ahead of the competition and earn profits. They must ensure that all operational processes are as effective and efficient as possible with the resources at hand.

It is reassuring to note that more and more companies are acknowledging that BPM is significant to improve efficiencies, reduce cost of service, reduce waste and generate higher revenues. Getting started can feel a bit daunting, but the overarching idea in BPM is to reengineer a business and the underlying processes.

When an organization decides to reengineer a process, the first step is to understand the existing state (or the “as-is” situation). Once the proper functioning of processes is understood and captured, it becomes easier to analyze the process and identify any control gaps, process redundancies and inefficient processes leading to poor customer experience. During this stage, analysts use different techniques (such as Six Sigma, lean and 5S) to identify these gaps. Analysts also perform benchmarking and maturity model analysis to spot improvement areas. Once the gaps are identified, designing the desired state or “to-be” state of the process is done. Once the “to-be” state models are created, the processes are implemented for monitoring. Normally, the “as-is” and “to-be” process models are created in process-modeling tools.

Process modeling links business processes, performance metrics, practices and people skills into a unified structure. Process models integrate the well-known concepts of business process reengineering, benchmarking, process measurement and organizational design into a cross-functional framework. Process models are very effective in improving current business operations and establishing a common language across the firm, and are often used as a foundation for improvement initiatives.

During process modeling, organizations inevitably encounter the following questions:
1. Which processes exist in the organization?

2. Where does the process handshake occur?

3. At what level of detail should these processes be modeled?

4. Who is responsible for the processes and who actually executes them?

5. How many resources are deployed in the processes?

These questions are particularly relevant when an organization has a plethora of process models. Global organizations, for example, typically have tens of thousands of processes running in parallel. Organizations therefore use readily available frameworks — created by consulting, IT and nonprofit organizations — as a reference. These frameworks contain a typical process architecture for an organization in the sector, the definition of a process, activities that should be included in a process, roles and responsibilities, and process measures and benchmarks, among others.

A number of companies have achieved dramatic improvement in economic value driven by BPM. The basic value proposition of BPM is that an organization can process more work while improving quality and reducing the effort. The benefits of BPM for companies can be categorized into the following:
1. Efficiency — Clear and defined end-to-end processes will address inefficiencies and eliminate sources of waste such as manual effort, poor interdepartmental handoffs, and the inability to effectively monitor overall progress.

2. Effectiveness — BPM promotes process effectiveness through the creation of a BPM governance process to manage and oversee the delivery of projects and the realization of business value. Other benefits of greater process effectiveness are the ability to handle exceptions faster and better, the ability to make better decisions, and the ability to execute consistently, which is critical for providing a better customer experience.

3. Agility — In this fast-paced ever evolving environment, organizations need to be nimble and have complete visibility of their processes, which go beyond inputs and outputs and process steps. They need to know who is performing the processes, how to measure the performance of each process, what the potential risks are and how they can be mitigated and controlled. The common factors that affect the performance of an organization such as social, technological, economic, environmental, political, legal and ethical aspects will require companies to be agile in changing or developing its processes. The faster we define and structure the ways of working, the quickly we can bring improvements in customer service and experience.

BPM enables organizations to align business functions with customer needs, and helps executives determine how to deploy, monitor and measure company resources. When properly executed, BPM has the ability to enhance efficiency and productivity, reduce costs, and minimize errors and risk — thereby optimizing results. Implementing best practices in BPM contributes to sound financial management and quantifies how well an organization is succeeding in meeting its goals. A BPM approach will help a business innovate and transform its way to achieving more business value.

This article is for general information only and is not a substitute for professional advice where the facts and circumstances warrant. The views and opinion expressed above are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of SGV & Co.

Erwin D. De Arroz is a Senior Director of SGV & Co.

Nation at a Glance — (02/05/18)

News stories from across the nation. Visit www.bworldonline.com (section: The Nation) to read more national and regional news from the Philippines.

Philippine factories lose ASEAN helm to Vietnam

THE PHILIPPINES lost out to Vietnam in January in terms of improvement of manufacturers’ business in seven members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), tying with Myanmar for second place after both saw a “modest increase” in pace from December, according to IHS Markit’s monthly region-wide tracking for Nikkei, Inc. that was released on Friday.

The Nikkei ASEAN Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) picked up to 50.2 in January from 49.9 in December, with Vietnam displacing the Philippines “to lead growth rankings across the region at the start of 2018 as growth in its manufacturing sector picked up to a nine-month high”, the report read.

Vietnam logged a “solid” 53.4 reading, while the Philippines and Myanmar each posted a “modest” 51.7.

The seasonally adjusted Nikkei Philippines Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index that was released on Thursday fell to 51.7 last month from 54.2 in December and 52.7 in January 2017, “signalling only a modest improvement in the health of the sector,” in contrast with “solid expansion in recent months.”

“The latest reading was the third-lowest in the survey history” that began in January 2016 for the Philippines and the lowest since September 2017’s 50.8, the report read.

Besides Vietnam, Myanmar and the Philippines, Thailand (50.6) and Malaysia (50.5) beat ASEAN’s 50.2 reading in January.

A PMI reading above 50 suggests improvement in business conditions compared to the previous month, while a score below that signals deterioration.

January saw Indonesia (49.9) and Singapore (46.4) falling below the 50 mark that denotes no improvement from the preceding month.

The manufacturing PMI is composed of five sub-indices, with new orders having the biggest weight of 30%, followed by output (25%), employment (20%), suppliers’ delivery times (15%) and stocks of purchases (10%).

The Philippines and Vietnam have been close competitors for the region’s top spot, with 2017 seeing the Philippines on top seven times in January, May, June, July, October, November and December, and Vietnam at the helm in the other months.

“The ASEAN manufacturing economy started 2018 on a positive footing, but growth remained fragile,” the report quoted IHL Markit Principal Economist Bernard Aw as saying, noting that “[b]oth output and total new orders grew marginally, but export sales contracted for a second month running”.

While “[f]actories remained cautious about purchasing activity, which contributed to a further drop in inventories”, “spare capacity” could make job growth slow and “strong cost pressures” due to shortage of key production inputs squeezed firms’ profit margins, “[e]ncouragingly, business confidence about output in the year ahead remained strong, with optimism holding steady at a near one-year high”.

Corporate regulator loses a commissioner

SECURITIES and Exchange Commission (SEC) Commissioner Blas James G. Viterbo has resigned for health reasons, the SEC spokesperson said on Friday, cutting his seven-year term by three years.

SEC spokesperson Armando A. Pan, Jr.said that Mr. Viterbo submitted his resignation letter to President Rodrigo R. Duterte through Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III on Thursday.

“… Commissioner Blas James Viterbo tendered his resignation to President Duterte thru DoF Secretary Carlos Dominguez, on Feb 01, 2018, for health reasons,” said Mr. Pan in a mobile phone message yesterday.

“He will prioritize his medical check up… he has irregular heartbeat… cardiac arrhythmia,” he added, saying Mr. Viterbo’s resignation “is effective upon acceptance by President Duterte.”

Mr. Viterbo is a corporate and tax lawyer by profession with experience in management, finance, public policy and entrepreneurship, according to the SEC Web site. He was appointed SEC commissioner on May 20, 2014 and took his oath on May 23, 2014.

His resignation comes amid controversy surrounding the SEC’s decision in the middle of this month to revoke the registration of online news site Rappler — which has been critical of the current administration — for violating constitutional restrictions on foreign ownership of media outfits. News reports then had noted that Mr. Viterbo did not sign that ruling.

Mr. Viterbo as well as three other members of the SEC management — Chairperson Teresita J. Herbosa, as well as commissioners Antonieta F. Ibe and Ephyro Luis B. Amatong — were appointed by former president Benigno S. C. Aquino III.

The fifth, Commissioner Emilio B. Aquino, was appointed by Mr. Duterte on Dec. 2, 2016 and took his office on Dec. 7.

The SEC leadership will shed one more member when Ms. Herbosa herself ends her term this May. — Elijah Joseph C. Tubayan

DoF open to lower VAT rate if exemptions eliminated

THE DEPARTMENT of Finance (DoF) said it is possible to cut value-added tax (VAT) rates if the reduction is accompanied by the removal of all VAT exemptions.

Although lowerign VAT rates is not in among the DoF’s plans, Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III said that he is open to a cut, as long as exemptions are also trimmed.

“There might be a possibility to reduce the rate by eliminating all exemptions.That is one possibility, but we haven’t calculated that yet,” he added.

“All of that can be subject to discussion.”

He said legislators “have to be careful about reducing the VAT rate,” since the government is not as efficient in collecting taxes compared to other countries.

“The VAT rate here is 12% and we only collect 4.7% as VAT tax as a percentage of GDP (gross domestic product). In Thailand the rate is only 4.7% and they collect 4.7%,” Mr. Dominguez said.

“If we can bring up our collection rate say to 7% by eliminating exemptions, of course we are open to reducing the rate of the VAT,” he added.

“Unfortunately in the past, VAT has been used as a fiscal incentive which is really wrong. There is no other country in the world which has so many exemptions,” he said.

Republic Act No. 10963 or the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) Act broadens the VAT base and plug leakages by removing some exemptions.

The law also reduces the processing time for VAT refunds.

According to Finance Undersecretary Antonette C. Tionko, claims for VAT credits reached 1,580 in 2017.

“The total, for BIR (Bureau of Internal Revenue), is P35 billion as of Dec. 31 2017. But these were all filed before the TRAIN. So they should be processed according to the tax code,” she said.

The National Internal Revenue Code states that tax credits will be processed within 120 days. TRAIN mandates a 90-day processing time.

“We will follow that. But it has significantly gone down,” added Ms. Tionko. — Elijah Joseph C. Tubayan

Small businesses not exempted from anti-trust rules — experts

EVEN AS large and family-run companies dominate the Philippine business landscape and small enterprises face high barriers of entry, anti-trust rules should not necessarily “protect” the latter, industry experts said on Friday.

“Competition law is not protecting small businesses. The goal is not to say, they don’t need to face up SM in the marketplace. But you go to the field, you know the rules, if you’re good some of you will grow,” Michael Schaper, deputy chair of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, said during a panel discussion on the second day of the Manila Forum on Competition in Developing Countries in Makati City on Friday.

The panelists acknowledged the importance of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in catering to markets unserved by large conglomerates to give consumers more product choices. However, they said the competition regulator shouldn’t give them special treatment.

“You don’t need a competition law to protect them. Our focus is access to mentorship, money, and market. If an entrepreneur will not have access to these three, it would be impossible to succeed,” Presidential Adviser for Entrepreneurship Jose Maria A. Concepcion III said.

“There are many ways to enter, and this is what entrepreneurship is all about. The creativity and innovation,” he added.

He said however that the anti-trust body should not put the clamps on the digital environment, which is MSME’s point of entry amid large firms’ dominance in the market.

“What’s important is we should not regulate a changing landscape. I look forward to the digitalization of market. Us, large corporations compete for market dominance. In the meantime, many of our MSMEs, they will be hit in this massive competition from the big boys. The barriers to entry are created by ourselves,” said Mr. Concepcion.

“What is our chance for the MSMEs? To allow MSMEs in the supply chain…let us allow the digital economy to run its course,” he added.

Established brick-and-mortar businesses will be forced to likewise adopt the digital innovations of MSMEs, he said.

“The market is still the ultimate test. If you’re innovative enough, you can deal with the Samsungs of the world, so the balance it’s pretty tough. I think that’s important. But don’t overregulate to kill innovation as well,” Tony Fernandes, AirAsia group chief executive officer said.

Erlinda Medalla of the Philippine Institute for Development Studies however said that other sectors should still support small firms through providing more access to finance and skilled labor.

“The rules to be applied are the same whether big or small. It’s going to be fair, no bias there. The important thing is that there is free entry. But you have to encourage start-ups, to provide access to finance, and skills which is not anti competitive,” she said.

She added that small enterprises do not need exemptions from the competition law despite having less capital for compliance costs.

According to Mr. Schaper, small businesses have less capacity to compete with large firms in dealing with legal snags. He added that MSMEs are more likely to spend on product development than bankrolling lawyers for legal purposes.

Stella Luz A. Quimbo, commissioner at the anti-trust body Philippine Competition Commission, said that only 11% of MSMEs are aware of the Philippine Competition Act or Republic Act No. 10667, citing a survey by the Asian Institute of Management.

“Small businesses usually soldier on. If you get someone to undercut you, or use a dirty trick, you are rarely likely to go to a competition regulator. The cost, the time, the effort is big,” said Mr. Schaper.

The least that regulators could do is to have legal solutions communicated in a “quick, straightforward manner.”

“They’re not necessarily looking for legal solutions, what they’re looking for are answers in plain language, what practical outcomes that can be implemented easily,” he added. — Elijah Joseph C. Tubayan

DPWH lists 6 road projects as its PPP priorities

THE DPWH has identified six priority public-private partnership (PPP) projects for this year.

DPWH Undersecretary for Planning and PPP Maria Catalina E. Cabral said in a statement that priority projects this year, expected to decongest major highways in Luzon and Mindanao, include the Central Luzon Link Expressway (CLLEX) Phase 2; Quezon-Bicol Expressway (QuBEX); Batangas City-Bauan Toll Road Project; Davao-Digos Expressway; Tarlac-Pangasinan-La Union (TPLEX) Extension; and Delpan-Pasig-Marikina Expressway.

Ms. Cabral said the CLLEX Phase 2, a 35.7-kilometer extension of the existing CLLEX Phase I from Cabanatuan City and San Jose City, is now under procurement of Transaction Advisory (TA) Services and Feasibility Study (FS).

The feasibility study of the around 180-kilometer QuBEX will be completed by third quarter of 2018. The project will start at Pagbilao, Quezon and will end at Maharlika Highway in San Fernando, Camarines Sur.

For the Batangas-Bauang Toll Road Project, Davao-Digos Expressway, TPLEX Extension, and Delpan-Pasig-Marikina Expressway, the DPWH is preparing the terms of reference (TOR) and the estimated budget for the contract (EBC).

The Batangas City-Bauan Toll Road Project is a 10-kilometer road traversing the municipality of San Pascual, Batangas. The 60-kilometer Davao-Digos Expressway will start from Bukidnon-Davao National Highway in Davao City to Digos-Sultan Kudarat Road in Digos City; and the 24.72-kilometer Delpan-Pasig-Marikina Expressway will start in the City of Manila, pass through Makati City, and terminate at Marcos Highway in Marikina City through the Pasig River.

The EBC of TPLEX Extension is also being prepared by the DPWH while its TOR has been transmitted for approval, the agency said. The extension is a 54-kilometer toll road starting from the end of TPLEX Section 3B in Rosario, La Union to F. Ortega Highway in San Fernando, La Union. — Patrizia Paola C. Marcelo

BSP Jan. inflation view exceeds expectations — ING

ING Bank N.V. said the central bank’s “surprisingly high” 3.5-4% inflation estimate has raised expectations that monetary authorities may tighten policy as early as March.

“With such a high January inflation forecast, the market may become worried that inflation will accelerate faster than expected in the coming months,” Jose Mario I. Cuyegkeng, senior economist at ING Bank Manila, said in a report posted yesterday.

On Wednesday, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said inflation likely rose to 3.5-4% in January on the back of higher crude and food prices as well as the higher taxes on selected goods under the new tax reform law.

“The increase in the prices of domestic petroleum products on account of higher global crude oil prices along with higher food prices due to weather-related disturbances could contribute to the rise in inflation for January 2018,” the BSP’s Department of Economic Research said in a statement.

“In addition, higher excise taxes on fuel, sugar-sweetened beverages with the implementation of the TRAIN this month, would lead to additional upward price pressures,” it added, referring to the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion act, which was passed in December.

The central bank’s inflation estimate for January will likely pick up from December’s 3.3% inflation, and above ING Bank’s forecast of 3.4%.

The January inflation estimate may hit the high end of the government’s full-year target range of 2-4%.

Mr. Cuyegkeng added that January inflation in line with the BSP forecast could raise inflation expectations, spurring the central bank to hike its interest rates “as early as their March meeting.”

“Our base case is for a rate hike at the May meeting,” Mr. Cuyegkeng added.

In a previous report, Mr. Cuyegkeng said BSP could also revise its 3.4% inflation estimate for 2018 in its policy meeting on Feb. 8.

The previous report posted mid-January said the possible full-year inflation forecast revision would reflect the central bank’s assessment of the tax reform’s second-round effects such as a possible increase in minimum fares for public transport and the possible domino effect on wages.

Official inflation data for January will be released on Feb. 6. — Karl Angelo N. Vidal

Philab invests in a US-based genomics company

PHILAB Holdings Corp. is investing P500 million in a US-based genomics company in a deal seen to boost the Philippine-listed company’s bid to expand overseas.

In a statement on Friday, Philab said it has signed a collaboration deal with Veritas Genetics which it described as a “globally known genomics innovator” that screens human DNA through myGenome “whole genome sequencing” (WGS) that helps in assessing risks related to inherited diseases, drug sensitivities, traits and ancestry.

“We are excited to embark on this partnership with Philab and integrate our technology to offer our services in the Asia-Pacific. Whole genome sequencing and interpretation will soon be accessible to everyone,” Mirza Cifric, co-founder and chief executive officer of Veritas Genetics, said in a statement.

The deal “covers Philab’s investment of Php 500M in Veritas” with plans to establish a genomics facility in the future, the statement read. It will also support the holding firm’s plan to expand its operations worldwide starting from the Asia-Pacific region.

“Genetics has come a long way and now we are utilizing the power of genomics in disease prevention and individual treatment. Ultimately our goal is to let individuals have knowledge about their genetic makeup, then they would know how to control and better manage their lifestyle choices,” said Hector Thomas A. Navasero, Philab chairman and chief executive officer.

Philab said the partners would launch a new program on Pharmacogenomics, which it called an “exciting innovation which allows doctors to determine how an individual’s genetic makeup will respond to drugs.”

Mr. Cifric said the collaboration would enable the company to further develop and launch its genome sequencing services, while expanding its footprint in Asia.

On Friday, shares in Philab slipped 3.13% to P4.02 each. — V.V. Saulon

Expansion of acceptable collateral could boost PHL’s ease of doing business rank

THE PHILIPPINES’ Ease of Doing Business ranking could rise by as many as 100 spots into the top 50 when the Secured Transaction Systems bill is enacted, according to the Department of Finance (DoF).

The proposal, filed as House Bill No. 3682, seeks to establish a legal framework for the use of non-traditional collateral for loans, such as accounts receivable, inventory, and intellectual property, among others.

The measure is expected to “encourage more lending to MSMEs and agriculture” since it would also allow the use of crops, livestock and other equipment as loan security.

“The passage of this bill will strengthen the Philippines’ position in the “Getting credit” indicator in the Ease of Doing Business and boost it by about 100 notches—from rank 142 among 190 countries to 42,” the DoF said.

Currently, most banks only accept real estate as loan collateral.

The DoF said that about 31% of production by Philippine family household businesses and 65% of household businesses have no ability to borrow for their expansion needs.

It added that in countries that carried out the reform, lending to micro, medium and small enterprises (MSMEs) grew by 50-100%.

The DoF noted that China’s acceptance of movable collateral released $3.58 trillion worth of lending for MSMEs over four years.

Movable collateral accounts for 45% of commercial lending in China and 30% in Vietnam, according to the DoF.

The DoF said that of the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), seven have secured transactions laws, while five have a universal collateral registries.

The bill is currently up for third and final reading in the House of Representatives, and its counterpart bill in the Senate is set for second reading.

Aside from the legal framework, the bill would also establish a regulated warehousing industry which issues receipts that can be used as collateral by lenders and can be traded by investors and industry players; develop an automated movable collateral registry wherein information on transfers and pledges of collateral can be made and accessed by participants.

The Finance department said that this will “develop the backbone of an efficient commodities market that will stabilize prices and expand transactions.”

Even with the bill pending for approval by Congress, the Land Registration Authority (LRA) has established an automated collateral registry.

The Securities and Exchange Commission is also currently drafting regulations on audit systems to check compliance with regulations. — Elijah Joseph C. Tubayan

Globe says nearing two-million broadband line goal

GLOBE Telecom, Inc. has deployed one million broadband lines, halfway through its goal of two million lines by 2020.

In a statement, the telecommunications company said it deployed more than one million broadband lines in the last two years, enabling more users to stream video content.

In terms of wired broadband facilities, Globe deployed fiber broadband in 12 cities in Metro Manila as well as in 19 provinces. Majority of the company’s fiber build are located in Quezon City, Sta. Rosa and Calamba in Laguna, as well as in Cebu and Davao.

Joel Agustin, Globe senior vice president for program governance, network technical group, said the company’s deployment of massive MIMO (multiple input, multiple output) technology has been working to accelerate the roll out of two million home broadband lines, with speeds of at least 10 Mbps (megabit per second) by 2020.

“The goal is to provide for the growing data service needs of our customers and the company will continue to aggressively roll out broadband lines using latest available technologies such as the massive MIMO,” Mr. Agustin said in a statement.

Globe has set a capital expenditure (capex) of $850 million (around P43 billion) for 2018. — P.P.C. Marcelo

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