Facebook Instagram Linkedin X Youtube
Home Blog Page 12549

Urban mobility index and the transport disruption

As incomes rise around the world, they tend to stay within cities, urban hubs, and rural areas on the cusp of urbanization. Congestion follows as a result, even if property developments are done vertically.
After searching for an international transportation or mobility index that includes Metro Manila or the Philippines, I found one made by the Arthur Little Consultancy. They developed the Urban Mobility Index, a point system with 100 points as the perfect score.
The index is composed of three groups of urban mobility systems: Maturity of the system (36 points), Innovation (24 points), and Performance (40 points), with nine topics in each group. These are: Transport-related CO2 emissions, NO2 concentration, PM10 concentration, PM2.5 concentration, Traffic-related fatalities, Increase share of public transpo (PT) in modal split, Increase share zero-emission modes, Mean travel time to work, and Motorization level.
The second biggest group, Maturity, and its nine topics are: Financial attractiveness of PT, Share of PT in modal split, Share of zero-emission modes, Road density, Cycle-path network density, Urban agglomeration density, Public-transport frequency, Urban mobility initiatives, and Urban logistics initiatives.
Urban Mobility index 2018
About 100 cities worldwide are covered. Surprisingly, Metro Manila has scored moderately and not in the lowest group of cities (see Table 1).
People may wonder why Metro Manila has ranked higher than Osaka or Sydney or Kuala Lumpur. Perhaps the surveyors and researchers covered only the EDSA area where a train — however cramped — exists and jeepneys and tricycles are banned. Vehicles move along at slow speeds during rush hours.
Disruption in urban mobility was first made by MRT/LRT a few decades ago. However, an increase in capacity was few and far in between, resulting in a persistent “transport crisis.”
The second round of disruption was made by vans and UV expresses, which help ferry passengers from high density locations and help them avoid taking multiple rides to their destinations.
However, this local initiative was restricted by the government via the LTFRB as it severely limited the franchising of UV express vehicles and heavily penalized vans that were “colorum (unregistered).”
A third round of disruption was introduced by a multinational company, US-based Uber. It was so successful, it inspired a regional competitor, Singapore-based Grab, to offer the same service.
Unfortunately, the LTFRB kept to its antiquated regulations, restricting the number of cars to serve both Uber and Grab. It later penalized Uber with a substantial fine.
Plagued with its own financial issues, Uber later decided to quit Southeast Asia and merge with Grab.
Meanwhile, actions of the LTFRB leave much to be desired.
Of the 19,000 Uber drivers, only 11,000 were absorbed by Grab since these were the only ones accredited by the LTFRB.
Some 6,000 former Uber drivers are still waiting accreditation and are unable to drive for Grab because they are not in the LTFRB master list while some 2,000 ex-Uber drivers have possibly given up (see Table 2).
Demand-Sharing of Ride-Sharing in Metro Manila
Grab Philippines Country manager Brian Cu brought this up during his presentation during the BusinessWorld Economic Forum 2018 on May 18 at Grand Hyatt Hotel, BGC in Taguig City. The forum’s theme was “Disruptor or Disrupted: The Philippines at the Crossroads.”
Ride-sharing and TNVS scheme are disruptors in urban mobility system and thousands of commuters have benefited. The LTFRB and government bureaucracy have disrupted this in their own way, resulting in increased inconvenience for TNVS passengers.
To this day, the LTFRB continues to control fares and cap surge pricing, a move that discourages drivers from getting incentives for picking up passengers even in inhospitable areas. This, despite the fact that the agency has already limited the number of accredited drivers, as discussed previously.
Providing comfortable, convenient, and safe transportation is not a crime and government has no business limiting this kind of entrepreneurship. Government should instead further expand competition, stay away from price and fare control, and allow commuters to have more choices.
 
Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is President of Minimal Government Thinkers, a member-institute of Economic Freedom Network (EFN) Asia.
minimalgovernment@gmail.com.

National ID system OK’d in bicameral level

By Camille A. Aguinaldo and
Charmaine A. Tadalan
THE proposed national identification (ID) system has hurdled the bicameral conference committee, lawmakers confirmed on Wednesday.
“They agreed to adopt the Senate version with minor amendments,” Senator Panfilo M. Lacson told reporters.
“Ngayon, maisasabatas na po ‘yung (Now, we have passed the) Philippine ID System that will cover all Filipino citizens living in the Philippines or abroad and at the same time, resident aliens,” House Deputy Minority Leader Alfredo A. Garbin, Jr. for his part said in a press briefing.
The House of Representatives panel led by Laguna Rep. Sol Aragones and the Senate panel led by Mr. Lacson reconciled late Tuesday the disagreeing provisions of the bill in a bicameral conference committee closed to media.
The national ID system bill seeks to institutionalize a single official identification for all citizens and foreign residents in the country. Under the bill, a “PhilSys Number” is assigned to each individual and this will be incorporated in all identification systems of government agencies.
Mr. Lacson said he hoped the proposed measure would be signed into law before President Rodrigo R. Duterte’s third State of the Nation Address in July. The program is also expected to be implemented within the year as funding of P25 billion has been allocated by the government.
“Give or take by June-end, it will become a law…. This is a landmark legislation. It’s been languishing in both Houses for 18 years,” he said.
The bill has been identified as among the priority measures of the Legislative-Executive Development Advisory Council (LEDAC).
Mr. Garbin for his part said, “The Speaker wants it to be ratified before the adjournment sine die.”
Among the House measures retained in the bill is the provision indicating the specific data that will be collected from individuals such as full name, sex, date of birth, place of birth, blood type and address. Marital status, e-mail address and mobile number are optional information.
Biometric information will be collected as well, which will be composed of the front face photo, full set of finger prints, and iris scan. Initially, biometrics only required prints of the thumb and index finger.
The proposed law also aims to simplify the current ID system in the country, as it will allow registered individuals to present the ID in renewing their passports, drivers’ license, and securing NBI clearance, among others.
The Department of Budget and Management (DBM) has said the national ID system would improve the delivery of government services.
Finance Undersecretary Karl Kendrick T. Chua also said the passage of the bill would also allow easy access for poor citizens to avail themselves of food and fare discounts provided by the Tax Reform Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) law.

Bello: Gov’t to revisit labor agreements with other nations

LABOR Secretary Silvestre H. Bello III on Wednesday said the government will revisit all existing bilateral agreements with other countries following the country’s signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoUs) with Kuwait in behalf of overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) based there.
“Actually, we are going to revisit all existing bilateral agreements,” he said at Wednesday’s Senate hearing inquiring into recent deaths of OFWs and the government’s migration policies.
Mr. Bello was responding to Senator Nancy S. Binay-Angeles’s question on whether the Philippines has existing MoUs with other countries aside from Kuwait due to the labor policy constraints being faced by OFWs in other countries.
He said the review was timely since some agreements were already outdated.
However, special envoy to Kuwait and presidential adviser on OFW concerns Abdullah D. Mama-o said there was no need to formulate an MoU with Oman and Bahrain since the two countries have abolished the kafala system or the system in Middle Eastern countries wherein foreign workers must be sponsored by a local employer to get a work permit.
The system has been deemed a source of complaint among several OFWs whose employers confiscate their passport to prevent them from reporting abuses.
Also at the hearing, Filipino Migrant Workers Group Jun S. Aguilar pointed out that government agencies failed to consolidate their databases on OFWs, as mandated by Republic Act No. 8042 or the Migrant Workers and Overseas Filipinos Act of 1995, to better monitor the situation of Filipino workers abroad.
“This has been (an) issue 23 years ago and we always go back to this issue on the monitoring and the data on OFWs. The shared government information system on migration which was embodied in the law has not been achieved so far,” Mr. Aguilar said.
In response, Mr. Bello said this was a wake-up call for the Department of Foreign Affairs and the Department of Labor and Employment, among other government agencies, to comply with the law and ensure the safety of OFWs.
“It look likes this provision has been missed out….This inter-agency committee should be convened,” he said.
For his part, Senator Joel J. Villanueva is looking into mandating household service workers to secure a certification by the Technical Education and Skills Development Authority (TESDA) before being deployed abroad. He said this requirement would arm Filipino workers with the necessary job skills and prevent cases of abuse. — Camille A. Aguinaldo

Drinking plastic

An item a couple of months ago in the online international edition of UK-based publication The Guardian had caught my eye: “WHO launches health review after microplastics found in 90% of bottled water.” The news item detailed how researchers have found plastic fibers in popular bottled water brands.
While somewhat dated, having come out in mid-March, I still believe the Guardian report to be relevant. This is considering the widespread use of plastic bottles globally to retail drinking water and other beverages, as well as condiments, sauces, and other food items. Plastic bottles are also used for liquid medicine as well as tablets and capsules.
The Guardian reported that the World Health Organization (WHO) would review the “potential risks” to the public of plastic fibers or small plastic pieces — also known as microplastics — particularly in drinking water. In a previous study, high levels of microplastics were reportedly found in tap water.
But, a newer study found that more than 90% of the world’s most popular bottled water brands also contained microplastics. And the most common type of plastic fragment found in bottled water was polypropylene, which is used to make bottle caps. The bottles examined in the study were from the US, China, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Lebanon, Kenya, and Thailand.
The newer study, by scientists from the State University of New York in Fredonia, examined 259 bottles from 19 locations in nine countries across 11 different brands. And, an average of 325 plastic particles were reportedly found for every liter of water being sold. Also, of the 259 bottles examined, only 17 bottles were reportedly free of plastic.
What concerns me more is that The Guardian reported that the newer study “found roughly twice as many plastic particles within bottled water” compared with their previous study of tap water. This may be a bit obvious in the sense that bottled water is in a plastic bottle, unlike tap water. However, one is normally more inclined to think that “bottled water” is cleaner and safer than tap water. But this may not be the case with microplastics.
In fairness to bottling companies, the newer study is far from comprehensive. It has not been published in a scientific journal, and has not been through scientific peer review, according to The Guardian.
Moreover, a WHO spokesman had told The Guardian that there was not yet any evidence on impact on human health, although WHO would “review the very scarce available evidence with the objective of identifying evidence gaps and establishing a research agenda to inform a more thorough risk assessment.”
As I had written in a previous column, I believe that now there are just too many negative externalities associated with the use of plastic bottles and the retail of bottled water. Most plastic bottles end up in the garbage after use, and much of this garbage end up in our oceans. One estimate has it at over 46,000 pieces of floating plastic for every square mile of ocean.
There should be a concerted effort to minimize if not eliminate the use of plastic bottles for water and other beverages, for food, and for medicine. But, at the same time, there should be a major effort to research and produce alternatives. Public education will also play a big role in changing mind-sets and attitudes, for people to favor safer and sustainable alternatives to plastic.
The recent scientific revelation that bottled water is not necessarily “cleaner” or “safer” than tap water is a good start. In this line, we should seriously rethink the way we prioritize convenience over public safety and environmental impact. It is difficult to move away from using plastic, I know, but we do have to start somewhere. Little changes, over time, will go a long way.
I will be very interested to read the WHO review later on, and any other material or literature with detailed findings on the implications of the use of plastic containers to public health. And more experts should chime in on the economics of buying bottled water, and how effective marketing had convinced us to willingly pay a premium for quick and convenient access to “drinks.”
Disposable containers like plastic bottles make beverages conveniently accessible to us, but they can have adverse impact on people’s health as well as pollute our oceans and kill marine life. There is no doubt that there are “negatives” that go along with our use of plastic bottles, and economic and social and environmental costs.
One recourse, in lieu of legal prohibitions in the manufacture and use of plastic bottles, is national and local taxes.
In exchange for lowering excise taxes on fuel, for instance, the government can impose a small tax on the use of plastic bottles. It should be small at the start, to minimize impact on food costs and inflation.
But the tax can be made to gradually go up over time, to penalize further use of plastic. Meantime, producers can look for alternatives to plastic, to avoid the tax. And consumers can start weaning themselves from plastic. Consumers should be made to pay a premium, in the form of tax, not only for the convenience but also the negative externalities associated with the use of disposable plastic bottles.
People can always go to coffee shops with their own mugs or bring their own water containers to water refilling stations. Consumers can go to supermarkets and bring their own containers for sauces and condiments. Beverages can be sold in liquid dispensers. People should also get incentives or rebates for recycling.
The use of plastic bottles will eventually kill us. Perhaps not in the immediate, but it will kill us, surely. Even if microplastics can be filtered, the fact remains that plastic bottles end up mostly in dump sites and our oceans, resulting in pollution and death of marine life. As we slowly choke the Earth with our waste, we are also pulling tighter the noose around our necks.
 
Marvin A. Tort is a former managing editor of BusinessWorld, and a former chairman of the Philippines Press Council.
matort@yahoo.com

Q1 SWS survey shows optimism still excellent

NET PERSONAL Optimism, Net Optimism about the Economy, and Net Gainers in Personal Quality of Life yielded “excellent” scores, despite declines from December 2017, according to the First Quarter 2018 Social Weather Survey of the Social Weather Stations (SWS).
The noncommissioned survey, conducted March 23-27, found 46% of adults expecting their personal quality of life to improve in the next 12 months (“optimists”) and 6% expecting it to get worse (“pessimists”), for a Net Personal Optimism score of +40 (% Optimists minus % Pessimists), classified by SWS as “excellent.”
This is 6 points below the record-high excellent +46 (49% Optimists, 3% Pessimists) in December 2017, but similar to the excellent +40 in June 2017, SWS said, adding that Net Personal Optimism has been excellent (+40 and above) since December 2015, except in March 2017 when it was a very high +36.
The March 2018 survey also found 42% optimistic that the general Philippine economy next year would “improve” and 12% feeling it would “deteriorate,” for a Net Optimism about the Economy score of +31 (% Optimistic about the Economy minus % Pessimistic about the Economy, correctly rounded), classified also as excellent.
Still, this is 11 points below the excellent +42 (52% Optimistic about the Economy, 9% Pessimistic about the Economy, correctly rounded) in December 2017. Otherwise, Net Optimism about the Economy has been excellent (+20 and above) since December 2015, reaching as high as +56 in June 2016.
On the change in Personal Quality of Life compared to twelve months ago, The survey also found that 41% said their lives improved (“gainers”) and 21% said they worsened (“losers”), for a Net Gainers score, in terms of Personal Quality of Life, of +20 (the difference of Gainers over Losers), classified as excellent. But this is 3 points below the record-high excellent +23 (41% Gainers, 18% Losers) in December 2017. It was very high (+10 to +19) from September 2016 to September 2017.
The 6-point decline in Net Personal Optimism nationwide was due to declines in Metro Manila (down 12 points to +37 and one grade to “very high”), Balance Luzon (down 5 points to +40), and the Visayas (down 8 points to +31), combined with a steady score of excellent +50 in Mindanao, from December 2017 to March 2018, SWS noted.
Net Personal Optimism stayed excellent in class ABC, although down 17 points from +59 in December 2017 to +42 in March 2018.
It also stayed excellent in class D, or the masa, although down 5 points from +47 in December 2017 to +42 in March 2018. It stayed very high in class E, although down by 2 points from +33 in December 2017 to +31 in March 2018.
The 12-point decline in national Net Optimism about the Economy was due to decreases in all areas where optimism, however, still stayed excellent.
Net Optimism about the Economy fell 17 points in Mindanao to +43; 12 points in Balance Luzon to +28; 8 points in Metro Manila to +28; and 7 points in the Visayas to +23.
Optimism, however, rose 4 points to +35 and stayed excellent in class ABC. It stayed excellent in classes D and E, although down by 11 points to +32 and 17 points to +24, respectively.
The 3-point decline in the national Net Gainers score was due to decreases in Metro Manila (still excellent if down 6 points to +24), Visayas (down one grade to high and 8 points to +3), and Balance Luzon (excellent at +21 and hardly moving from the record-high +22 in December 2017), combined with a steady excellent +29 score in Mindanao.
Net Gainers rose 15 points and one grade to excellent +33 in class ABC. It stayed excellent in class D, although down 2 points to +22, and fell 11 points and one grade to high +4 in class E.
The March survey was conducted using face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adults (18-years-old and above) nationwide: 300 each in Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao, with sampling error margins of ±3% for national percentages and ±6% each for the said regions.

Advertise responsibly

The Ad Standards Council (ASC) is the advertising industry body in the Philippines tasked with screening and regulating content of advertising materials across all mediums. Ads with alcoholic beverage themes, in particular, have to be approved by an ASC Professional Screener before they can be aired, published, or displayed, and should include the government’s mandatory “Drink Responsibly” statement. But how is this statement depicted in these ads?
For example, in the current print ad of San Miguel Pale Pilsen, a popular brand from San Miguel Brewery, the “Drink Responsibly” statement, along with other details, can be found on the lower left side of the copy. The ad has a screaming white headline (BUY 2 BOTTLES OF SAN MIGUEL PALE PILSEN 330 ML AND GET 1 PAIR OF STATEMENT SOCKS) against a red background. However, the small white text of “Drink Responsibly” at the bottom left corner is difficult to read against the same red background. In fact, the “Drink Responsibly” statement looks as if it is about to be crushed by the beer bottle towering above it, or as if it is about to be used as a coaster.
We can observe the same pattern in the ads of other alcohol companies such as Emperador Distillers, Asia Brewery, and Bel Mondo Italia.
And what about TV commercials?
In one of the latest commercials of San Mig Light, the “Drink Responsibly” statement is found in the very last second of the 30-second commercial. Although the statement is readable and is even placed in the center of the screen, it again receives less visual emphasis given its plain font, in contrast to the stylized font of the ad’s “Mahaba-habang Inuman” headline. The ad does not even include an auditory warning; up to the very last second, the last words spoken, or in this case sung, are the brand name.
If alcohol companies were truly concerned with the well-being of their consumers, why aren’t they making the “Drink Responsibly” statement more prominent in their ads? Are they being ethical in their marketing?
Ethics professors Laura Hartman, Joe DesJardins, and Chris MacDonald posit that one indication of ethical marketing is when consumers’ consent is “informed”; that is, before they exchange their money for goods, consumers receive all needed information simply and without deception.
The warning is in the ad, but what is it really warning about? Studies have shown that excessive alcohol consumption can weaken the immune system, cause depression, and even increase the risk of death. Don’t consumers need to know this?
Also, the local ads depict alcohol drinks as liquid courage. Is this not deception?
So what can government do to address this issue? Perhaps it can find inspiration in our cigarette ads.
To inform Filipinos of the consequences of tobacco consumption and exposure, president Benigno S. C. Aquino III in 2014 signed into law Republic Act No. 10643, which requires tobacco packages to include graphic health warnings and to remove misleading descriptions such as “low tar” or “ultra lights,” which may convey false health benefits.
First, the ASC could require a minimum font size for the “Drink Responsibly” statement in print and digital ads so that it can be easily read. Right now, no size is prescribed. And if consumers can’t see the warning, it might as well not be there.
Second, the ASC could require alcohol ads to include a minimum amount of air time to inform viewers about the consequences of over-consumption and establish clear guidelines on how alcohol companies can emphasize the warning visually and auditorily. These guidelines need not require the displaying of disfigured faces or spoiled organs, as with tobacco products. Brief statements on the latest statistics and research on the effects of excessive alcohol consumption are some ways of advertising alcoholic drinks responsibly.
Third, the ASC could prescribe a more specific warning (for example, “Drink only X amount”).
Last, the ASC could evaluate if its code of ethics needs revising.
Although the Code has specific provisions such as disallowing the depiction of liquids entering the mouth, other provisions are ambiguous. For example, the code states that alcohol ads must not show alcohol consumption as a requirement for social acceptance. What does this mean? The Code also provides that TV alcohol ads should “flash” the “Drink Responsibly” statement in “a separate frame with no other copy or visual at the end of the material.” But for how long? Only a second, as seen in the ads.
A business exists to provide value to people and to promote their development, and it can and should accomplish these objectives without having to deceive the public for the sake of profit.
 
Gilberto V. Bilog II is an MBA student at the Ramon V. Del Rosario College of Business of De La Salle University. He wrote this essay for his class in Lasallian Business Leadership, Ethics, and Corporate Social Responsibility during his first term in the MBA program.
gilberto_bilog@dlsu.edu.ph

Nationwide Round-Up

Seized fake goods in Q1 reach P5.3B

FAKE GOODS seized by the government in the first quarter this year reached a value of P5.3 billion, more than five times the P886 million recorded in the same period last year, with fake cigarettes and cigarette production equipment accounting for the bulk.
“This Q1 seizure does not even reflect yet the value seized by the Bureau of Customs (BoC) which routinely impounds a substantial amount of fake goods from the country’s gateways,” the Intellectual Property Office of the Philippines (IPOPHL) Director General Josephine R. Santiago said in a statement yesterday.
Ms. Santiago expressed confidence that the agency can surpass the P8.2 billion in fake and counterfeit items confiscated in 2017.
During the first quarter, cigarettes and cigarette production paraphernalia took the top spot in value, estimated to be worth P5 billion. This is followed by handbags and wallets, and optical media at P137 million and P103 million, respectively.
Footwear took the fourth spot with a P55 million value, while other goods such as manufactured parts and food items were worth P25 million.
The P5 billion worth of cigarettes and cigarette production paraphernalia comes mainly from the Philippine National Police’s (PNP) one-time seizure of a factory manufacturing fake cigarettes in Bulacan as reported by the Department of Finance in February.
For the first quarter of 2018, the PNP conducted 17 operations, issued 14 search warrants, and arrested 14 individuals.
Among the enforcement agencies, the National Bureau of Investigation took out counterfeit products valued at P209 million, while the Optical Media Board confiscated P103 million worth of the haul.
The BoC has yet to submit its enforcement data, according to the IPOPHL.
Ms. Santiago said the agency will continue to work closely with vendors and establishment owners to find means of shifting them towards selling alternative goods sourced locally. — Janina C. Lim

HRW says HIV-AIDS bill lacks provision on condom use

HUMAN RIGHTS Watch Philippines on Wednesday said the proposed HIV-AIDS Policy Act, which passed on third and final reading last Monday, lacked provisions on condom use promotion, noting that the contraceptive’s low use caused the increased cases of HIV in the country. “In short, the draft law is a marked improvement over its antiquated predecessor. But like its predecessor, the measure does not include specific provisions directing the government to promote condom use. This is a big mistake,” HRW Philippines researcher Carlos H. Conde said in a statement. In response, Senator Risa N. Hontiveros-Baraquel, co-author and sponsor of the bill, assured that the proposed measure imposes prevention programs, including strategies such as distribution of prophylactics like condoms. “In the new law, there will also be interventions to prevent, halt or control the spread of HIV in the general population, especially among key populations and vulnerable communities. These preventive measures include strategies such as distribution of prophylactics, such as condoms,” she said in a statement. — Camille A. Aguinaldo

Abas confirmed

SENATE PRIB PHOTO

Sheriff Manimbayan Abas (3rd from left) is confirmed as chairman of the Commission on Elections on Wednesday, May 23, by the Commission on Appointments.

The ‘real’ truth about investments

By Steve Brice
EVERYONE wants definitive answers, or “the truth.” This is especially the case in the investment world, where people are vying to make correct predictions about the future. We all prefer to listen to people who appear confident about the outlook. Yet, research suggests these are the very same people we should be skeptical about. This is because the apparently “confident” forecasters are less willing to embrace that they do not know what is going to happen.
invest
The reality is that the truth is complex and does not fit on the back of a postage stamp. The human brain, despite its remarkable evolution, is not great at making decisions, especially when the situation is complex and uncertain, as is the case for financial markets.
We have an inherent need for an easily understandable and explainable story and this undermines our ability to get to the truth. One example of this in the financial world is the oft-quoted relationship between rising US interest rates and a strengthening US dollar, which in itself sounds intuitive.
In reality, the US dollar has weakened around two-thirds of the time during US rate hiking cycles. Part of the disconnect arises because it is the relative rise in US real (or inflation-adjusted) interest rate differentials versus other major currencies that drives the value of the US dollar, rather than merely what the US Fed is doing. And even then, there can be other factors (eg. trade tensions and external imbalances) that dominate these forces to drive the dollar. This is the truth, and it is complex.
So, what can investors do to make better decisions?
First, there are proven methods we can employ to try to make better decisions, both as individuals and groups.
Indeed, one can think about the average error of a group of individuals, such as an investment committee, as the sum of individual errors minus the diversity of those views. Therefore, we should do everything we can to try to reduce individual errors while maximizing the diversity of the individuals within the committee.
In order to minimise individual errors, the key is to try to address the behavioral biases that we all face.
For instance, confirmation bias — the psychological preference to read something that we agree with, and something that social media algorithms are making much harder to avoid — can be mitigated by ensuring that members are presented with arguments that challenge their understanding. Anchoring — where individuals focus too much on an initial piece of information when making decisions — can be addressed by searching for “smart anchors” which provide the probabilistic perspective on different outcomes based on historical experience of events similar to the one being analyzed — eg. stage of the economic cycle, valuations, policy divergence and the like.
In terms of maximizing diversity of views, a committee-based approach to decision making (as opposed to individual-driven decisions), helps uncover different perspectives. Membership of such a committee must be varied in terms of expertise, geographical experience, and ways of thinking. Once this is ensured, committee members need to absorb all available information and analysis — regardless of the source — which are pertinent to the decision at hand.
Second, we need to think in terms of probabilities, rather than trying to definitively predict the markets. Doing so opens one’s mind to alternative scenarios and forces us to accept that our current view of the world may be wrong.
Finally, since nobody can possibly know for sure what is going to happen, we need to invest with several scenarios in mind.
Today, our central scenario remains for global equities to make new highs as we believe we are still in the late stage of the economic cycle, with the risk of a recession in the next 12 months hovering around 20-25%. Normally, equity markets do well in the late stage of a cycle before the economy overheats, forcing central banks to tighten monetary policy aggressively. Moreover, historically, equities have normally generated positive returns from current valuations on a 12-month time horizon.
However, we cannot ignore the risks that inflation will pick up more rapidly than expected, especially with the US unemployment rate falling below 4%, or that trade tensions could escalate, leading to a slowdown in economic activity.
As such, we believe it is getting increasingly important to diversify investments, especially after bond yields have risen markedly over the past six months.
And therein lies the truth.
One of my favourite movie scenes is from A Few Good Men when Lieutenant Kaffee (played by Tom Cruise) gets Colonel Jessup (Jack Nicholson) to admit he ordered the Code Red that (accidentally) killed Private Santiago. Colonel Jessup says: “You can’t handle the truth of needing people like him to defend the country.”
The truth in the investment world is: ignore the confident voices, take calculated risks with an unbiased mind-set based on probabilities of various outcomes, and always hedge your bets.
 
Steve Brice is Chief Investment Strategist at Standard Chartered Private Bank.

Palace to release soon SALNs of Cabinet members

By Arjay L. Balinbin, Reporter
Malacañang announced on Wednesday that it will soon release the summaries of the Statements of Assets, Liabilities and Networth (SALNs) for 2017 of President Rodrigo R. Duterte’s Cabinet members.
“I am already calling Assistant Secretary (Kristian R.) Ablan. It is a traditional practice to release the summary of the SALNs of the President and the rest of the Cabinet members,” Presidential Spokesperson Harry L. Roque, Jr. said in an interview with Palace reporters via Facebook Live on Wednesday afternoon.
Mr. Ablan is an assistant secretary at the Presidential Communications Operations Office (PCOO) and director of the Freedom of Information (FoI) Program.
In a press briefing in February this year, Mr. Ablan said he would recommend to the Office of the President (OP) the immediate public disclosure of the SALNs of government officials.
“We will recommend to proactively disclose the SALNs of officials. The recommendation will include a manifestation that SALN is one of the most frequently requested documents,” he said when asked why the current administration was imposing another level of bureaucracy on the distribution of SALN copies to the media.
The Office of the Ombudsman released on May 11 Mr. Duterte’s SALN, which showed his net worth increasing by P1.1 million in 2017 to P28.54 million from P27.42 million in 2016.
In a press release, the Civil Service Commission (CSC) reminded all public officials and employees to file their sworn SALNs for 2017 by April 30, noting that the annual filing is “required under the 1987 Philippine Constitution and under Republic Act No. 6713, also known as the Code of Conduct and Ethical Standards for Public Officials and Employees.”

ConCom approves terms for president, veep, senators

THE Consultative Committee to Review the Constitution (ConCom) has unanimously approved the proposed changes in the Legislative and Executive branches under a federal government.
Under the proposed Legislative branch, at least two senators should represent a federated region and their term of office will be four years instead of six.
As for the Executive branch, the president and vice-president will have a term each of four years instead of six and both of them should come from the same political party.
The elected president should hold a college degree or equivalent, as opposed to the broader requirement in the 1987 Constitution that an aspirant for this office should be able to read and write.
“Kailangan naman daw hindi basta able to read and write (It shouldn’t be just someone able to read and write.” Retired Justice Antonio Eduardo B. Nachura said in a press briefing Wednesday. “When you are elected to a very responsible position in government, specially if you are tasked to make laws, kung congressman ka, senador, then dapat naman meron kang college degree (if you are a congressman, senator, then you should have a college degree). At least proof na nag-aral ka(proof that you are educated) and you know what you’re talking about when you’re sponsoring a measure in Congress.”
ConCom also considered changes in the current party-list system. “The problem with the party-list system is that we’ve seen the proliferation of the party-list organizations that do not actually represent the sectors that they are supposed to represent as envisioned by the Constitution,” Senior Technical and Media Officer Conrado I. Generoso for his part said.
Another feature in the proposed legislative system is on the direct exercise of legislative power by the people, with citizens able to propose, amend and repeal a law, as long as they file a petition with the Commission on Elections and garner 10% of voters’ signatures.
ConCom also widened the basis for declaring martial law to include, besides rebellion or invasion, lawless violence — the controversial basis for President Rodrigo R. Duterte’s declaration to that effect following the September 2016 Davao market bombing.
Mr. Generoso defined two categories for lawless violence: “Terrorism, like the one happening in Mindanao for example,” and “extremism, like violent extremism or religious extremism.”
The committee also proposed limiting the authority of the Commission on Appointments to exclude newly promoted colonels and navy captains. — Gillian M. Cortez

Cebu Pacific reviewing VisMin market profile for new Cebu and Davao flights

CEBU PACIFIC Air (Cebu Air, Inc.) is undertaking an assessment of passengers’ profile to and from the Visayas and Mindanao as the budget carrier draws up plans for new flights from the airports in Cebu and Davao. “If we talk about passengers within VisMin, we see the increasing trend and we know there is passenger growth between Visayas and Mindanao, inter-islands,” Cebu Pacific Director for Marketing Blessie L. Cruz told BusinessWorld in an interview in Cebu City. Ms. Cruz said with the country’s gateway in Metro Manila already “saturated… the focus now is to really grow our hubs outside Manila and that includes Davao.” She cited that one of the markets that they have been able to get a slice of are travelers using buses and ferries within the Visayas and Mindanao islands. For international flights, Mr. Cruz said they are more conservative in launching new routes because they want to cover those that are sustainable. “We have Davao-Singapore, the only international flight (to and from Davao), and the thing with us is if we introduce a new route, as much as possible we want to sustain it. That is why it takes us a little time to actually introduce a new route. Davao to Singapore has been operating for the last three or four years,” she said. — Maya M. Padillo

UST suspends frats, sororities after hazing death last year

THE UNIVERSITY of Santo Tomas (UST) has declared that it will no longer officially recognize fraternities, sororities, and other similar organizations in an anti-hazing move following the death of law freshman Horacio “Atio” Castillo III, according to a memorandum signed by Office for Student Affairs (OSA) Director Ma. Socorro S. Guan Hing.
”In light of the recent incident involving the hazing death of a law student and in keeping with the duty of the University to take proactive steps to protect the students from the danger of participating in activities that will involve hazing, the University has decided to suspend the recognition of all Fraternities, Sororities, or similar organizations effective at the start of A.Y. (Academic Year) 2018-2019 until further notice,” read the memorandum dated May 21 and released to media on Wednesday.
”Accordingly, all fraternities, sororities or similar organizations are directed to cease and desist from recruiting students or engaging in any kind of activities,” the statement read.
The memorandum also told students “not to join fraternities, sororities, or any unrecognized student organizations.”
The 22-year-old Mr. Castillo was brought lifeless by his fellow members of the Aegis Juris fraternity to the Chinese General Hospital on Sept. 17, 2017, after he became unconscious from participating in the group’s initiation rite.
UST expelled eight law students for violating the university’s Code of Conduct and Discipline last Feb. 18.
Ten of Mr. Castillo’s alleged killers and fraternity brothers surrendered themselves to the National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) on March 23.
Citing safety concerns, accused Min Wei Chan, Jose Miguel Salamat, John Robin G. Ramos, Marcelino Bagtang, Jr., Arvin A. Balag, Ralph Trangia, Axel Munro Hipe, Oliver Onofre, Joshua Joriel Macabali and Hans Matthew Rodrigo requested to be put under the custody of the NBI and not the Manila Police District (MPD.)
The judge holding their case, Presiding Judge Alfredo D. Ampuan of the Manila Regional Trial Court Branch 20, however, denied their request and ordered the NBI to transfer them to the Manila City Jail (MCJ) on Tuesday, May 22.
On the same day, their scheduled arraignment was moved to July 24 to allow the petitions of review submitted by some of the accused to be processed.
They were handed over by the NBI to the warden of the MCJ on Wednesday afternoon.
When asked if they were given any preferential treatment during their stay at the NBI detention center, agency spokesperson Nicanor V. Suarez told BusinessWorld, “definitely none.” — Dane Angelo M. Enerio

1...12,54812,54912,550...14,238Page 12,549 of 14,238
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT
© 2024 BusinessWorld Publishing.
All rights reserved.
Read our privacy guidelines
Facebook Instagram Linkedin X Youtube