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Machines are coming for India’s unwanted jobs: Anjani Trivedi

By Bloomberg
A TEXTILE-yarn company in western Indian soon will have more machines than workers. A manufacturer in southern India sold almost double the number of its automated goods last year. India’s biggest carmaker has one robot for every four plant employees.
Automation will double over the next three years in Indian factories, according to a survey by Willis Towers Watson. Companies in the Asia Pacific region reckon machines will account for 23 percent of work, on average, over the next three years, compared with 13 percent today. In India, that figure is expected to rise to almost 30 percent from 14 percent over the same period.
India Inc. is turning to machines quicker than its global peers. But unlike companies in Japan and Germany — which are automating to move up the food chain as their workers age — factories in the world’s second most populous country have a surprising motivation: They’re running out of willing (human) workers.
This is also happening as India’s ballooning working-age population needs more jobs. Over the next decade, 138 million people will be added to the workforce, a 30 percent rise, according to the McKinsey Global Institute.
The trouble is finding jobs that Indians actually want. The country’s workers would rather drive for food-delivery services on the breezy, albeit steamy, roads of Mumbai and work in hotels than in factories. Fair enough. Who would want to work in a yarn mill, which needs to maintain a temperature of 33 degrees Celsius (91 degrees Fahrenheit) and 60 percent relative humidity? Conditions on other industrial factory floors are likely worse.
That India’s yarn and cloth-making industries — among the most labor-intensive in the country — have become the vanguard of automation speaks to the challenge. The textile-yarn company had to ramp up spending on hiring and venture deep into the Indian hinterland to find workers through recruitment camps, luring them with housing and attendance incentives. It even has had to pay them just to return to work after the holiday season or weddings.
The rapid pace of automation has brought its own set of problems. The cost of adding machines is high while labor costs are relatively lower. Many of these companies wouldn’t break even for years by automating, and according to the Willis Towers Watson survey, few believe they are prepared to deal with the onset of machines.
The Indian government’s job-guarantee program, with its skewed incentives, hasn’t helped either. For every worker that signs up for the 100-day plan, fewer will fuel the manufacturing sector and the “Make in India” program. Because wages for those jobs are, in several states, set below the minimum wage, anecdotally workers have been signing up at multiple job sites just to squeak by.
Other laborers have given up altogether. Take the city of Bengaluru, whose ready-made garment industry is composed mostly of young, unskilled migrant women. Studies have found that over a fifth of workers there don’t receive the minimum wage, and move from factory to factory only to end up in domestic-service work.
Who would’ve thought that India’s low- and unskilled workers, and the welfare programs designed to help them, would drive companies toward automation? In a country where manufacturing and construction each comprise 10 percent of the labor force — compared with 25 percent in services — these sectors should be driving India’s economy, not weighing it down. The sad reality is that those in the bottom tiers of the labor force will be the most severely hurt by automation.
Upgrading rusty manual machines isn’t a bad thing. The transition could help overall productivity, efficiency and quality. Research also has found that automation often leads to other, better jobs. The typewriter didn’t replace the stenographer completely but taught people how to type instead.
The difference is that those workers had skills that could be upgraded. Meanwhile, only 18.5 percent of India’s labor force is skilled or holds an intermediate or advanced level of education, according to the United Nations Development Programme.
Manufacturing, as Professor Dani Rodrik of Harvard University, puts it, is “the quintessential escalator for developing economies.” For India, which became a service-heavy economy before it fully industrialized, the consequences of automating the sector are far more dire. The self-fulfilling cycle of India’s manufacturing void means workers may not be fully equipped to move up the ladder or out of the still-large informal economy.
Indian politicians have vowed to create millions of new jobs a year. That hasn’t happened. Ahead of a big election, India’s accidental automation may make that promise even harder to fulfill.

New must-have for blockchain startups: Economics Nobel winners

By Bloomberg
WITH cryptocurrency mania over for now, blockchain startups need to dig a little deeper to attract attention. Their latest secret weapon: Nobel laureates.
Covee Network is the latest venture to announce a partnership with an economist of the highest standing: game-theory and market design expert Alvin Roth, who shared the economics Nobel in 2012. Prysm Group is borrowing the brain — and name — of Oliver Hart of Harvard University, a 2016 co-laureate; and Cryptic Labs LLC has partnered with both Eric Maskin — who shared the prize in 2007 — and Christopher Pissarides — a 2010 co-laureate.
A year ago, just uttering the word “blockchain” was enough to spark interest. Photography pioneer Eastman Kodak Co. last year had a brief return to fame, and a 272 percent share-price jump, after a cryptocurrency licensing its name was announced. And soft-drink company Long Island Ice Tea Corp. rebranded as Long Blockchain Corp., with similar results, only to end up accused of misleading investors.
But the magic has faded. In August, funding from initial coin offerings, which are used as an alternative to public offerings by companies in the cryptocurrency business, dropped to the lowest in 16 months, according to data from Autonomous Research.
The question is: Do the laureates just supply their names and reputations, or are they fully engaged in the projects?
“When I was first approached about joining, I spent a good deal of time thinking about whether I would just be a decoration, or whether I would actually be able to contribute,” Roth said by phone. What persuaded him was how he could bring his unique skills to bear on the project. “They are embracing game theory as a way of incentivizing participation.”
Roth will help Zurich-based Covee set strategy in regular phone calls and has direct access to the team because he works in the same building as one of its members. Options remain open for him to become a part-owner of the company, though neither he nor Covee disclosed payment arrangements. Like the partners at Cryptic Labs and Prysm, he’s described as an adviser.
“It was the seriousness of the team, and our existing relationships that distinguished us,” allowing the firm to bag Roth, Covee Chief Executive Officer Marcel Dietsch, an alumnus of Oxford University, said by phone. The interest exhibited by serious thinkers “shows that the blockchain sector is growing up,” he added.
Of course, not all winners of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences agree on the benefits of cryptocurrencies.
“Bitcoin is evil,” Paul Krugman, a 2008 laureate, wrote in his New York Times column in December 2013. Even Roth says much of what Covee is setting out to do can initially be achieved without the blockchain.
Covee’s white paper — with its discussion of game theory, including payoff diagrams — seems custom-designed to win over an economist. It’s authored by six Ph.D.s from, among other schools, Harvard and Imperial College London, one of whom studied under Roth. The project is likely to launch in November. It does not currently have plans to raise funds via an ICO.
AMBITIOUS GOAL
Dietsch’s goal is ambitious: He wants to disrupt the firm itself.
Using the Ethereum network, he aims to create a marketplace for skills that will allow ad hoc teams to form around business projects. A scientist who has developed a new drug, for instance, could seek out an expert in regulation and someone with experience in marketing. Once the project is complete and the drug brought to market, they could disband. Dietsch says blockchains will replace the intermediation function of the firm. Value tokens will be used to enforce participation and solve the free-rider problem, while smart contracts will address coordination issues.
“Why is most of the workforce stuck within the boundaries of centralized intermediaries such as the centuries-old corporation?” Dietsch and his team ask in the white paper. “Both trust and traditional organizations are limited in terms of scale.”

Chinese solar giant to build all its panels with just solar power

By Bloomberg
IN a first for the solar industry, China’s Longi Green Energy Technology Co. plans to produce all of its panels using solar power in as little as three years.
President Li Zhenguo moved factories to areas of China and Malaysia that have access to hydropower in recent years — and away from China’s coal-heavy manufacturing zones — to make Longi’s production process more sustainable.
“For the future, we will build solar for solar,” Li said in an interview at the Solar Power International Conference in California. “We can do this in three to five years.”

SurveyMonkey climbs in debut after upsized $180 million IPO

By Bloomberg
ONLINE-polling company SurveyMonkey surged as much as 67 percent in its trading debut after raising $180 million in its bigger-than-targeted U.S. initial public offering.
Shares of SurveyMonkey, the operating name of Svmk Inc., closed up 44 percent at $17.24 Wednesday in New York. That price lifted the company’s market value to about $2.1 billion, topping its $2 billion valuation in a 2014 private funding round.
The company sold 15 million shares for $12 apiece Tuesday after earlier offering 13.5 million of them for $9 to $11. Concurrent with the offering, the company also sold $40 million in stock to Salesforce Ventures, the venture capital arm of Salesforce.com Inc.
SurveyMonkey is older than many of its newly public peers, having been founded almost two decades ago. While the company had more than 16 million active users in the past year, according to its IPO filing, only 3.8 percent of those were paying users.
SurveyMonkey has relied on paying users finding the tools through the company’s website or online searches, it said in its filing. It said it expects growth to continue through word-of-mouth from existing customers, and by up-selling existing users.
SALESFORCE, GOOGLE
In the past three years, the San Mateo, California-based company has begun partnering with companies such as Salesforce, Microsoft Corp. and Google, according to the filing.
For the first six months of 2018, SurveyMonkey’s net loss increased to $27.2 million from $19.1 million for the same period last year. In 2017 it had a net loss of $24 million on revenue of $218.8 million. That compared with a net loss of $76.4 million on $207.3 million in revenue in 2016.
SurveyMonkey plans on using the proceeds to pay down debt and meet income tax obligations related to a restricted stock unit settlement, as well as for working capital and general purposes including acquisitions and investing in technology.
Tiger Global Management LLC holds the largest stake in the company with 25 percent of the stock. The Sheryl K. Sandberg Revocable Trust holds an 8.4 percent stake and Facebook Inc. Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg is on the board. Her late husband, David Goldberg, was chief executive officer of the company.
JPMorgan Chase & Co., Allen & Co. and Bank of America Corp. led the offering. The company is trading on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol SVMK.

China claims more patents than any country — most are worthless

By Bloomberg
FOR nearly a decade, China has taken great pride at filing the largest number of domestic patents. It’s proving less keen on keeping them.
Despite huge numbers of filings, most patents are discarded by their fifth year as licensees balk at paying escalating fees. When it comes to design, more than nine out of every ten lapses — almost the mirror opposite of the U.S.
The high attrition rate is a symptom of the way China has pushed universities, companies and backyard inventors to transform the country into a self-sufficient powerhouse. Subsidies and other incentives are geared toward making patent filings, rather than making sure those claims are useful. So the volume doesn’t translate into quality, with the country still dependent on others for innovative ideas, such as modern smartphones.
“It means these patents really aren’t as valuable as people thought,” said Lu Junfeng, a patent attorney at Shanghai-based JZMC Patent and Trademark Law Office. “If the retention rate is so low for design patents, then it calls into question whether there’s a bigger systematic problem.”
China overtook Japan eight years ago to become the biggest hoarder of domestic patents and has remained in the lead ever since, approving 1.8 million last year alone. President Xi Jinping’s Made in China 2025 program — now at the center of tensions with the U.S. — aims to make the country a global leader in technology, and developing a hoard of intellectual property has become a central element of achieving that.
To get a clearer picture on the country’s patent history, it’s important to understand that not all of them are equal. In China there are three different categories: invention, utility model and design.
Invention patents, as the name suggests, are for new ideas that represent “notable progress” in advancing a technology. This category represents what most people understand about patents, a breakthrough in design, process or concept. It accounted for just 23 percent of the patents granted in China last year.
Just like in the U.S., they face a challenging path to approval in a process that can take 18 months and exposes them to testing and scrutiny. Successful ideas are protected for 20 years.
It’s the two other categories, which both have a 10-year life, that swell the headline numbers but are proving far less valuable. An example of a design patent would be the shape of a soda bottle, while a utility model would include something like sliding to unlock a smartphone. Neither is subject to rigorous examination and can be granted within less than a year.
As of last year, more than 91 percent of design patents granted in 2013 had been discarded because people stopped paying to maintain them, according to JZMC Patent and Trademark data compiled for a Bloomberg query. Things aren’t much better for utility models with 61 percent lapsing during the same five-year period, while invention patents had a disposal rate of 37 percent. In comparison, maintenance fees were paid on 85.6 percent of U.S. patents issued in 2013, according to the United States Patent and Trademark Office.
“The fact that design patent disposal rates are so high is astonishing,” said JZMC’s Lu. “People have such a low desire to keep them.”
While the Chinese government provides an incentive for new applications, that’s not the case once a patent is granted, and holders must pay ever-increasing fees just to keep them.
It costs 900 yuan ($131) a year to own an invention patent, a price that rises to as much as 8,000 yuan later in its life. For the other categories, tolls rise from 600 yuan to 2,000 yuan annually in the last two years.
A lax approval process for the less inventive categories has led to a flourishing of filings, where people literally copy a patent in the U.S. and seek approval in China, often with the intention of parlaying that into a settlement fee, said Wang Xiang, head of law firm Orrick’s China IP practice.
Some companies have also been exposed as frauds, seeking to use patent filings to get tax and residency benefits for employees. Since 2008, as part of China’s national policy to encourage innovation, companies certified as “high-tech firms” have won significant tax cuts and annual subsidies of 500,000 yuan in provinces like Hainan.
“There’s probably a lack of motive to strictly vet these companies,” Wang said. “Unfortunately under the existing judicial system, there is no effective deterrence against fraudulent filing or falsifying evidence.”
Chinese regulators are only just starting to notice some of the suspect practices. The Ministry of Science and Technology revoked high-tech licenses for at least 14 companies this year, without citing specific reasons. In an unusual move, the state-owned Xinhua News Agency lambasted China’s IP industry for plagiarism, forgery and other sub-par practices in August. It said the sector was beset by “weak IP, fake demands and some companies fervent on phony innovation.”
“Fake innovation takes up resources for subsidies, hurts innovators who are working hard, and also tampers with objectivity with policy makers,” it said.
To be sure, China’s support for patents has bolstered some sectors like artificial intelligence and cloud computing. Chinese companies filed eight times as many patents related to those technologies as their U.S. counterparts, according to Nigel Swycher of London-based IP consultancy Aistemos.
Tencent Holdings Ltd., with the largest portfolio among the Chinese trio, now holds three times as many patents as Facebook and double that of Amazon.com Inc.’s, Aistemos’s data shows. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. has also outpaced those U.S. firms.
Yet the high disposal rates mean China still has a long way to go till it becomes the technologically sophisticated nation it aspires to be.
“While Chinese patent qualities have been improving every year, they are still far from close to the U.S. counterparts,” said Orrick’s Wang.

U.S.-China military tensions start to rise as trade war deepens

By Bloomberg
AS a trade war heats up between the U.S. and China, military tensions are also rising.
China on Tuesday refused a U.S. warship entry to Hong Kong next month, according to the U.S. Consulate General in Hong Kong, and Beijing’s top naval officer canceled a high-level meeting with his U.S. counterpart after being recalled to China, according to Lieutenant Colonel Dave Eastburn, a Pentagon spokesman.
The moves come as a worsening trade war prompts concern in Beijing over whether President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs are part of a master plan to stop China from threatening American dominance of the Indo-Pacific. The Trump administration last week levied unprecedented penalties on a Chinese military procurement agency and its director for allegedly purchasing Russian combat aircraft, claiming a violation of U.S. sanctions.
“It all adds up,” said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, who teaches U.S.-China relations at Hong Kong Baptist University. “It plays into the hands of the conservatives like Xi Jinping in China’s leadership that Trump’s real intent is to contain China’s rise.”
MIDTERM ELECTIONS
Trump’s latest assault came Wednesday when he accused China of trying to interfere in coming U.S. midterm elections in November. Trump said he had evidence, but didn’t provide any. He also said he and Xi might no longer be friends.
“We do not and will not interfere in any country’s domestic affairs,” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said at a session of the United Nations Security Council, through a translator. “We refuse to accept any unwarranted accusations against China.”
The U.S. State Department said its sanctions on the Chinese military’s Equipment Development Department — which oversees China’s defense technology — weren’t intended to undermine the military capabilities or combat readiness of any country, but rather to impose costs on Russia in response to alleged interference in the U.S. election process. Among Russia’s arms customers, only China has been targeted by American sanctions.
The list of Chinese grievances against the Trump administration has mounted since the president unleashed his trade war, placing tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese goods.
‘STRIKE BACK’
“In China, they are debating how they can respond and there are hawks who say, ‘We have to strike back,’” said Collin Koh Swee Lean, research fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. The country’s military actions this week are a way of “showing displeasure without crossing the line into something more serious.”
China has employed similar messaging in the past. In 2016, Beijing denied a U.S. carrier strike group’s request for a Hong Kong port visit during a period of heightened tension with the U.S. over the South China Sea.
Washington has also adeptly deployed the tactic. To protest China’s militarization of artificial structures it has created in the waters, the U.S. earlier this year disinvited the Chinese from participating in the 2018 Rim of the Pacific exercises — drills held in the Pacific every two years that bring together the militaries of two dozen nations.
China will likely continue finding ways to express its dissatisfaction, without derailing its attempts to resolve the trade war via conciliation.
TOOK UMBRAGE
“I expect this kind of thing will continue,” said Ian Storey, a senior fellow at the ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore specializing in U.S.-China relations. “It’s what the Chinese do when they want to express anger over a particular issue.”
Beijing took umbrage in August, when U.S. senators pushed for sanctions against seven Chinese officials and two surveillance equipment manufacturers after reports that China is forcing as many as 1 million Muslims into “re-education” camps in its far western region of Xinjiang. On Monday, China’s Defense Ministry issued a sharply worded statement expressing dissatisfaction after the U.S. approved the sale of a $330 million military equipment package to Taiwan.
Taiwan has been an escalating point of tension between the U.S. and China since Trump’s election. Before he took office, he tweeted about his protocol-breaking phone conversation with Tsai Ing-wen, the island’s Beijing-skeptic president. He subsequently questioned the One-China policy, which has guided U.S.-China ties since the 1970s.
PARACEL ISLANDS
The British warship HMS Albion sailed by the Chinese-occupied Paracel Islands in the disputed South China Sea earlier this month, adding to China’s sense that countries were joining forces with the U.S. to stymie its expansion in the waters — of which Beijing claims more than 80 percent — said Koh. An international arbitration panel in the Hague ruled in 2016 that China’s claims have no legal standing.
France’s Defense Minister Florence Parly said at June’s Shangri-La Dialogue security conference in Singapore that French and British naval forces would sail together through “certain areas” in the South China Sea. The U.S. Navy routinely conducts freedom of so-called freedom of navigation operations to demonstrate its right to sail there.
Japan this month held a submarine exercise in the South China Sea. It led Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang to caution that the “relevant non-regional country” should refrain from undermining peace and security.

The world’s biggest crypto company just opened the books for its IPO

By Bloomberg
ONE of the cryptocurrency world’s most powerful, controversial and secretive companies just opened its books for the first time.
Bitmain Technologies, the virtual currency mining firm co-founded by billionaires Jihan Wu and Micree Zhan, released its first public financial statements in a Hong Kong regulatory filing late Wednesday. The disclosure, which also confirmed Bitmain’s intention to pursue an initial public offering, follows months of speculation about the company’s listing plans and its potential vulnerability to a more than $600 billion rout in digital assets since January.
Here are some highlights from Bitmain’s filing:

• Profit rose almost ninefold to $742.7 million in the first half from a year earlier

• Revenue rose about 10-fold to $2.8 billion in same period

• Adjusted return on equity of 58.9% Bitmain held $886.9 million of cryptocurrency assets at the end of June, or about 28% of total assets

• Company recorded an impairment loss of $102.7 million on crypto assets in the first half; impairment provision on inventory of $252.7 million

• Inventories swelled to $887 million from $558 million at end 2017

• Volatile markets may require “significant provisions” on inventories and crypto holdings

• Mining hardware sales make up 94.3% of revenue; mining pools 1.5%; mining farms 0.8%; proprietary mining 3.3%; others 0.1%

• Company has adopted a dual-class share structure, giving co-founders Wu and Zhan control China International Capital Corp. is the IPO sponsor

Founded in 2013, Bitmain is one of the biggest companies to emerge from the boom in digital assets that propelled Bitcoin to a 15-fold gain last year. As both the largest operator of Bitcoin mining collectives and the dominant supplier of virtual currency mining machines, the firm has enormous influence over the global crypto ecosystem — a role that has troubled members of the community who disdain anything resembling a centralization of power.
Yet questions over the sustainability of Bitmain’s meteoric rise have been multiplying in recent months. The 2018 tumble in virtual currency prices threatens both the profitability of Bitmain’s mining operations and demand for the custom chips it sells to other miners. Meanwhile, competition in the mining-gear business has grown more intense.
Two of Bitmain’s biggest rivals — Canaan Inc. and Ebang International Holdings Inc. — are also pursuing IPOs in Hong Kong as they seek funding for a technological arms race. Bitmain risks losing its competitive edge, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. analysts wrote in a report last month.
For now though, Bitmain is still the industry bellwether, with a market share in crypto mining gear estimated by Frost & Sullivan at nearly 75 percent. If the company proceeds with the IPO, it will represent a major test of whether investors view virtual currencies as a temporary fad or an innovation with staying power. A Bitmain listing — with its myriad public disclosure requirements — may also help reduce the opacity of an industry that skeptics say is under-regulated and prone to misbehavior.
“From the initial numbers I saw, it’s quite encouraging,” said Jehan Chu, managing partner at blockchain investment and advisory company Kenetic Capital. The firm invested in Bitmain during an earlier round of funding, Chu said. “It’s great to have actual clarity, validated documents to shed some light on the company’s actual status and actual performance.”
The company has yet to disclose a target valuation or say how much it wants to raise from its IPO. People familiar with Bitmain’s plans told Bloomberg last month that the share sale may raise as much as $3 billion. The company has repeatedly declined to comment when asked for details of its listing plans.
Bitmain’s main product is called the Antminer, a server-sized box that sells for a few hundred to a few thousand dollars. Instead of the various parts that make up a traditional PC, Antminers are filled with dozens or hundreds of high-powered chips, known as ASICs, that perform the brute-force number crunching needed to verify virtual currency transactions. Customers are mostly large mining operators in places with cheap electricity.
While Bitmain gets most of its revenue from mining equipment sales, the company also runs some of the world’s biggest mining collectives, in which members combine their processing capacity and split the rewards.
Wu has said he wants Bitmain to branch out into non-crypto fields such as artificial intelligence, where ASICs also play an important role. In an interview earlier this year, he estimated that as much as 40 percent of Bitmain’s revenue will come from AI chips within five years. But skeptics, including Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Mark Li, have said a successful push into AI is far from certain.
There’s also no guarantee that investors will flock to Bitmain’s IPO, especially given the recent weakness in Hong Kong’s stock market.
The city’s benchmark Hang Seng Index has dropped 16 percent from this year’s high in January, one of the biggest declines among major markets worldwide.

Jollibee to bring Panda Express to the Philippines

“We look forward to tapping into JFC’s market expertise to grow the Panda Express brand into a household name in the Philippines,” said Panda Express Co-Founder Andrew Cherng

By Anna Gabriela A. Mogato
Jollibee Foods Corp. (JFC) has struck a partnership with US-based Panda Restaurant Group, Inc. to bring widely popular Chinese-American food chain Panda Express to the Philippines
In a disclosure to the Stock Market on Thursday, JFC Chairman Mr. Tony Tan Caktiong said that “[this is] [v]ery much in line with JFC’s brand portfolio, it has excellent tasting dishes at reasonable price points.”
“[In the l]ong-term, Panda Express has a high potential for broad acceptance across the country,” he said.
In the same statement, Panda Express Co-Founder and CEO Andrew Cherng said that his group feels fortunate to strike a deal with JFC as it “has a history of growing and adding significant value to its new businesses.”
“We look forward to tapping into JFC’s market expertise to grow the Panda Express brand into a household name in the Philippines and, more importantly, actioning our shared value of inspiring people to better their lives,” he said.
Panda Express, which first opened in 1983, is known for its Chinese cuisine-based dishes such as the Original Orange Chicken, SweetFire Chicken Breast, and Shanghai Angus Steak.
To date, Panda Express has more than 2,100 branches worldwide.
JFC operates 2,988 restaurants worldwide, 1,103 of which under the Jollibee brand.

Asian development outlook 2018 update

THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK (ADB) has slashed its Philippine economic growth projections for this year and 2019 following “stagnant” performance in agriculture and a merchandise export slowdown, even as investments continue to rise. Read the full story.
Asian development outlook 2018 update

PHL growth to slow, still ‘robust’ — ADB

By Elijah Joseph C. Tubayan
Reporter
THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK (ADB) has slashed its Philippine economic growth projections for this year and 2019 following “stagnant” performance in agriculture and a merchandise export slowdown, even as investments continue to rise.
The regional lender revised downwards its Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) forecast to 6.4% in 2018 and 6.7% in 2019 in its Asian Development Outlook Update published on Wednesday, from 6.8% and 6.9% in its April report.
If realized, this year’s growth would be slower than the actual 6.7% clocked in 2017 and would fall short of the government’s 7-8% target.
But while the Philippines “faces the largest downward revision to its growth forecast for this year — by 0.4 percentage points — followed by Malaysia by 0.3 points, the Lao PDR, Myanmar and Vietnam by 0.2 points and Indonesia by 0.1 points,” it should still “post strong growth both this year and next,” the report read.
Contributing to next year’s pickup, the report added, would be acceleration of state spending on infrastructure and social services, while “[t]he recent buildup of inflationary pressure should moderate next year as tighter monetary policy reins in inflation expectations.”
Clarifying that this year’s projection of “6.4% is still a very robust economic growth rate,” ADB Country Director for the Philippines Kelly Bird said in a press conference on Wednesday at the ADB headquarters in Mandaluyong City that the new 2018 projection was “in line with the Philippine long-term growth and it’s driven by investments.”
“And because it’s driven by investments, we also believe that economic projection for next year is around 6.7%,” Mr. Bird said.
“That would be driven by investment and we expect that to further pick up due to a lot of flagship projects under the government’s ‘Build, Build, Build’ program that will start to come on stream next year.”
The Malacañan Palace issued a statement after the report was released, saying: “We expected this slowdown vis-à-vis our growth target for the year, given that certain policy decisions — such as the closure of Boracay and the full implementation of our comprehensive tax reform package which would benefit the country in the long-run — contributed to the deceleration.”
“We assure the public that our macroeconomic fundamentals are resilient, strong and stable,” it added.
“Our economic managers are committed to the country’s long-term vision and are swiftly addressing issues affecting our growth prospects to sustain high growth and make it inclusive.”
Noting continued growth of importation of capital goods and infrastructure spending, Mr. Bird pointed out that the country’s fixed investment-to-GDP ratio reached 27.2% last semester — the highest in over two decades — “laying the foundation for sustained growth over the medium term.”
The economy grew 6.3% last semester versus 6.6% in 2017’s first half, weighed particularly by flat farm performance and slowed increase in household spending that nevertheless fueled nearly 70% of GDP.
ADB’s projections for the Philippines are above the Southeast Asia averages of 5.1% and 5.2% for 2018 and 2019, respectively.
They also compare to the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s estimates as of July of 6.7% for both years, as well as the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific’s 6.8% and 6.9% for 2018 and 2019, respectively, as of May.
CHALLENGES
Mr. Bird said agriculture will continue to weigh on Philippine growth prospects, together with rising inflation and subdued merchandise exports.
“Economic growth remains strong,” he said.
“It softened a little, but that’s because of exports on the demand side but also agriculture on the supply side, and inflation as we know increased well above the target,” he explained.
“We still see those cost-push factors working their way through the economy,” he added, citing the impact of rising food and global oil prices.
“You’ve got a stagnant agriculture sector, and in fact in some areas production declined.”
The regional lender noted that agriculture edged up just 0.6% last semester from 5.6% in 2017’s first half, while growth of exports of both goods and services eased to 9.8% from 19.5% in the same comparative six-month periods.
At the same time, he noted that the government has been “vigilant” and “very proactive in addressing inflation,” citing the 100 basis-point policy interest rate hike so far this year, distribution of cash cards among the poor, administrative orders to streamline distribution of food such as lifting non-tariff trade barriers, cutting red tape in importation, setting up of public outlets and cold storage facilities, among others.
Headline inflation in accelerated to a fresh multiyear-high 6.4% in August from 5.7% a month ago and 2.6% a year ago. The eight-month average in the overall rise in prices clocked in at 4.8%, above the central bank’s 2-4% target range for 2018.
The ADB expects inflation to average five percent this year and moderate to four percent in 2019, compared to its previous projections of four percent and 3.9% for those respective years.
Mr. Bird said the increase in interest rates is “designed to slow down growth on the demand side so you might see some re-softening on growth coming forward.”
Other risks include faster-than-expected interest rate tightening in the United States that would trigger more fund outflows.
Joseph E. Mr. Zveglich, ADB’s assistant chief economist, said in the same briefing that the Philippines may benefit from the US-China trade war since “Philippine producers of [intermediate] electronic goods can retool and attract the suppliers” of finished electronics equipment to the US market “that were previously coming from China.”
Mr. Bird also noted that external debt is currently “relatively low” and fiscal deficit remains “on track,” which “provides a strong setting for continued economic growth but also providing a buffer.”
Asian development outlook 2018 update

Expect ‘very strong’ action today — BSP exec

LONDON — The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will take “very strong” action at its meeting on Thursday, BSP Deputy Governor Diwa C. Guinigundo said here on Tuesday, a move likely to be its fourth hike in interest rates in a row.
The central bank is widely expected to raise its key interest rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 4.5% in a bid to curb inflation and shore up the shaky peso currency, according to a Reuters poll.
A BusinessWorld poll late last week yielded the same expectation.
“I expect very strong monetary policy action,” Mr. Guinigundo told Reuters at an investor meetings in London.
“We expect inflation for the last four months of the year to remain elevated and there are volatilities in the foreign exchange market. Volatilities in FX market could spill over to the real economy and produce more pressures on prices.”
The BSP has hiked interest rates by 100 bps since May, to tamp down price pressures from higher taxes, a peso down almost nine percent since January as well as rising food and fuel costs.
“If you are coming from the direction that the central bank is behind the curve then you don’t need 50 basis points, it is probably 100 basis points or 75 basis points,” Mr. Guinigundo said.
“But I don’t think that is where we are coming from.”
He also said there were other tools in place such as reserve requirements for banks which at 18% are some of the highest in the world. He added that these could even go up to 20% at some point, if deemed necessary.
INFLATION MAY EASE
For economists at First Metro Investment Corp. (FMIC) and the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P), inflation may have eased in September but still remained above six percent, likely prompting another strong rate hike from the central bank.
The analysts see inflation at 6.2% this month, when the Philippine Statistics Authority reports data on Oct. 5, slower than August’s 6.4% although still a leap from the three percent climb clocked in September 2017. If realized, this would again settle beyond the BSP’s 2-4% target range for 2018.
Surging food prices as well as world crude oil rates drove inflation to a nine-year peak last month, driven largely by supply constraints for cheap rice, meat, fish and vegetables. Consumer prices have maintained a steady ascent since the year opened, to which the central bank responded by raising benchmark interest rates by a cumulative 100 basis points (bp) from May to August.
The FMIC and UA&P analysts said the tightening cycle is not yet over, as they joined calls for another 50bp hike in today’s rate-setting meeting of the BSP.
“We expect the Monetary Board to lift policy rates by 50 basis points to 4.5% this month as it seeks to cool inflationary expectations and exchange rate pressures,” they said in the latest issue of The Market Call.
BSP Governor Nestor A. Espenilla, Jr. last week committed to “take strong immediate action” in response to the faster-than-expected August inflation rate.
Many bank economists have priced in a 50bp hike in today’s meeting, noting that the impact of damage from typhoon Ompong likely stoked price pressures further. Inflation has averaged 4.8% for the first eight months, against the BSP’s 4.9% full-year estimate.
Still, the analysts believe that inflation has already peaked, as they expect price increases to ease in anticipation of additional rice supply from imports as well as from the harvest season.
Malacañang on Sept. 21 issued orders designed to facilitate delivery of agricultural products from farms to the retail market. July-September is a lean season for rice, which has a heavy contribution to inflation.
The analysts also believe the peso will “continue to weaken” against the dollar, moving closer to the P55 level by yearend.
Still, they expect faster economic growth this semester, supported by infrastructure investments despite tepid consumer spending amid rising costs.
“The desired investment-led growth paradigm that now dominates the country’s development should continue at elevated levels, as large public-private partnership projects (considered as private construction) add to the growing roster of ongoing and upcoming infrastructure projects,” The Market Call read.
“Robust capital goods imports and the manufacturing sector output should add to domestic demand while exports should move into positive territory in H2.”
A recovery in exports should boost growth prospects this semester, supported by improving global demand.
The Philippine economy expanded by 6.3% in the first semester, compared to 6.6% a year ago, a far cry from the government’s 7-8% target for the entire year. — Reuters and Melissa Luz T. Lopez

Car sales fall further in August

DOMESTIC sales of automobiles picked up in August from the previous month, but declined 14.1% when compared to the same month a year ago.
The Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines, Inc. (CAMPI) and the Truck Manufacturers Association on Wednesday reported their member companies sold 30,313 vehicles in August, against sales of 35,309 units in the same month last year.
The groups marked the seventh month of decreased sales when measured against the comparable period last year. Sales this year were positive year-on-year only in January, which saw a 4% growth.
Total sales dropped 14.3% to 229,941 vehicles year-to-date versus the 268,424 units in last year’s comparative eight months.
Sales in August were 8.1% more than the 28,038 units sold in July.
In a press statement that accompanied the vehicle groups’ report that focused on the month-on-month increase, CAMPI President Rommel R. Gutierrez attributed the improvement to “intensified promotional campaigns and new model launches.”
“Coming from a double-digit decline in July, our August sales performance is an indication of improving consumer confidence,” Mr. Gutierrez said.
Sales of commercial vehicles in August dropped 10% from a year ago, or 21,635 units this year versus 24,051 units last year.
The passenger car segment slumped 22.9% in August with 8,678 units sold versus last year’s 11,258 units.
Toyota Motor Philippines accounted for 42.06% of CAMPI sales during the first eight months of the year, with 96,716 units, an 18.3% decline from the same period last year. Mitsubishi Motors Philippines Corp. followed with a 19.26% share, or 44,283 units sold, a 6.7% decrease. Nissan Philippines, Inc. secured an 8.95% share with 20,952 vehicles sold, a 36.7% rise from last year. — J. C. Lim

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