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Jollibee gains full control of Smashburger

JOLLIBEE Foods Corp. (JFC) has taken full control of American burger chain Smashburger, after acquiring the remaining 15% stake in the company’s parent for $10 million.
In a disclosure to the stock exchange on Friday, the homegrown food giant said its wholly-owned subsidiary Bee Good! Inc. (BGI) has purchased Smashburger Master LLC (Master)’s remaining stake from its parent, SJBF LLC. The transaction was paid in cash.
“We look forward to the development of Smashburger into a very strong brand and business in the United States,” JFC Chairman Tony Tan Caktiong said in a statement.
Following the takeover, JFC will infuse $80 million worth of capital into Smashburger by converting a loan of the same amount held by BGI into equity. This will support the brand’s expansion starting 2019.
“We look forward to replicating in Smashburger the significant brand and business development that JFC achieved in practically all its new and acquired businesses in the Philippines, China, Vietnam, and other countries through the introduction of JFC’s business methods,” JFC Chief Executive Officer Ernesto Tanmantiong said in a statement.
JFC started investing in Smashburger in 2015, initially acquiring 40% of the company at $100.25 million. It has steadily increased its stake in the firm over the years before finally gaining full ownership.
Smashburger operates a total of 351 stores across the US, Canada, Costa Rica, Egypt, and the United Kingdom, among other locations. It currently accounts for seven percent of JFC’s consolidated systemwide sales. — Arra B. Francia

Chinese firms, Steel Asia to build $4.4-B integrated steel complex

CHINESE firms HBIS Group Co., Ltd. and Huili Investment Fund Management Co., Ltd have partnered with Steel Asia Manufacturing Corp. to develop the $4.4-billion Philippine Iron and Steel Project in Misamis Oriental, which will be China’s largest industrial investment in the country so far.
The Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) said in a statement on Friday that the HBIS Group and Huili Fund signed a memorandum of understanding with Steel Asia and PHIVIDEC Industrial Authority for the integrated steel complex project.
HBIS Group is a state-owned company based in China’s Hebei province that produces appliance grade and automotive grade steel products. It is described as the second largest steelmaker in China and the third largest in the world.
Meanwhile, Huili Fund is a private equity firm headquartered in Beijing that invests in real estate, finance, and industries. The company signed a letter of intent with the Board of Investments (BOI) in 2017, signifying its willingness to partner with the Philippines and private sector entities.
Steel Asia is the local partner for the project. The company is currently expanding its services for more efficient production and to boost capacity.
The project will stand on a 305-hectare property inside the PHIVIDEC Industrial estate. This will allow the country to produce basic iron and steel products that can be further manufactured into metal sheets and bards, nails, staple wires, paper clips, and construction-grade products such as wire rod and wire mesh.
Imports of iron and steel were valued at $4.91 billion from January to October, making it the country’s fifth import by commodity group.
“This project is very important to our industrial development and will allow us pursue President Duterte’s vision of having a globally competitive integrated iron and steel industry, to support the growing economy, to alleviate poverty, and to create jobs for every Filipino,” Trade Secretary Ramon M. Lopez said in a statement.
The project will be developed in two phases, with the first phase to cost $3 billion, covering the production of 4.5 million tons of hot rolled coil (HRC) and 600,000 tons of slabs. The second phase will further increase the project’s steel manufacturing capacity to 8 million metric tons.
DTI expects the project to provide up to 65,000 in indirect job opportunities from the project.
“Boosting the manufacturing sector creates jobs and increases the production capacity to support the growing domestic demand and export requirements,” Mr. Lopez said.
The project is also seen to reduce the country’s trade deficit, since it will allow the country to generate up to P144.279 billion from total domestic and export sales of slabs and HRCs, according to the BOI.
“With this integrated steelmaking facility, the country will be able to capture, through this and succeeding phases of the project, large part of the value for the manufacture and assembly of appliances, automotive assembly, construction materials, shipbuilding, heavy equipment manufacturing, among others,” BOI Managing Head Ceferino Rodolfo said in a statement. — Arra B. Francia

DoubleDragon creates units to woo international buyers

By Arra B. Francia, Reporter

Sales of units at Hotel101 Fort in Bonifacio Global City reached P1.65 billion since its launch last March. Handout photo

DoubleDragon Properties Corp. will incorporate international subsidiaries that will handle the pre-selling activities of P12.21 billion worth of hotel units in the country starting next year.
In a statement issued Friday, the listed property developer said its board of directors has approved the creation of wholly-owned units to be based in Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, London, Italy, and the United States.
This is in line with the company’s plan to start selling units from Hotel101 projects in Davao, Boracay, Bohol, and Palawan in 2019.
DoubleDragon said it currently has more than 50 property specialists handling its domestic sales, who helped the company book a 142.9% year-on-year increase in new sales to P1.9 billion across all projects.
Bulk of the sales came from the company’s Hotel101 Fort development in Bonifacio Global City, providing P1.65 billion since its launch last March.
“We are particularly pleased with the performance of our recently set-up in-house sales team that has made a substantial contribution to our revenue and cashflow stream this year,” DoubleDragon Chief Investment Officer Marriana Hannah Yulo said in a statement.
Hotel101 follows the condotel concept, where an investor buys a unit and then hands its over to DoubleDragon for management. The unit owner then gets his share of revenues based on the deal agreed upon by both parties.
The company noted that early unit owners of Hotel101 Manila in Pasay City have already received a 7.04% gross yield on their investment from December 2017 to November 2018.
The expansion of the Hotel101 brand forms part of the company’s goal to have 1.2 million square meters under its leasable portfolio by 2020. Its hospitality segment is projected to contribute 100,000 sq.m to this target from the construction of 5,000 hotel rooms carrying the Hotel101 and Jinjiang Inn Philippines brands.
“Hotel101 provides the optimum balance for DoubleDragon as our offices, malls and warehouses are recurring revenue sources which start pouring in upon their respective completion,” DoubleDragon Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Edgar J. Sia II said in a statement.
“(F)or Hotel101, DoubleDragon derives revenues twice — firstly, from the pre-selling of the units during the construction phase and secondly, once the projects are completed the properties start to generate recurring revenue from hotel operations.”
DoubleDragon’s attributable profit grew by 19% to P966.02 million in the first nine months of 2018, following a 16% uptick in gross revenues to P4.72 billion during the same period.
Shares in DoubleDragon jumped 2.25% or 40 centavos to close at P18.18 each at the stock exchange on Friday.

GMA founder Duavit passes away at 84

By Denise A. Valdez, Reporter
GILBERTO M. Duavit, Sr., one of the founders of GMA Network, Inc. and former Rizal congressman, has passed away at the age of 84, the broadcast giant said on Friday.
“The Board of Directors, Management and Employees of GMA Network, Inc. deeply mourn the passing of Atty. Gilberto M. Duavit, Sr,” the listed company said in a disclosure to the stock exchange.
Mr. Duavit was the founding chairman of GMA Network from 1974 to 1976, and served as one of its board directors to his last days.
GMA Network proudly attributes its success to the work of Mr. Duavit, who it said led it to the rebirth of the Republic Broadcasting System-TV Channel 7 in the 1970s.
He is also the father of current GMA Network President and Chief Operating Officer Gilberto R. Duavit, Jr.
Aside from leading one of the two largest broadcast networks in the country, Mr. Duavit also served as a policymaker in the 9th, 10th and 11th Congress as representative of the first district of Rizal.
He was named one of the Ten Most Outstanding Congressmen during his three-term stint at the House of Representatives. He served as the House Committee of Appropriations chairman during the 11th Congress.
Mr. Duavit was also the senior assistant minority floor leader during the 10th Congress, and a delegate to the 1971 Constitution Convention.
Outside the House of Representatives, Mr. Duavit served as Assistant Executive Secretary for Social, Political, Legal, and Economic Affairs in 1966 to 1970, and Acting Executive Secretary of the Office of President Ferdinand E. Marcos in 1969.
He also led the National Youth and Sports Development Foundation of the Philippines in 1978 and the Ministry of Youth and Sports Development in 1974 to 1978.
Mr. Duavit likewise left his mark in the University of Rizal as one of its founding fathers. The school system’s president Marita R. Canapi mourned his death in a statement, saying the late man “was a great leader, an action-oriented man who served the people of Rizal with love and passion.”
“As President, I had the distinct privilege of working alongside with this great man to implement reforms in the field of higher education. I will forever be grateful for his valiant efforts and support as one of the founding fathers of the University of Rizal System,” she said.

Filinvest-JG Summit’s Clark airport bid to be endorsed to NEDA

THE Department of Transportation (DoTr) said it will endorse the North Luzon Airport Consortium’s (NLAC) bid to take over the operations and management of Clark International Airport to the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) next week.
“Meron nang nanalo doon eh. Isu-submit na namin sa Wednesday. Yung grupo ng Changi airport… Isu-submit sa NEDA [A group already won the bidding. We’ll submit it on Wednesday. It’s the group of Changi airport. We’ll submit to NEDA],” Transportation Secretary Arthur P. Tugade told reporters on Friday when asked for updates on the Clark Airport O&M bidding.
NLAC is comprised of Gotianun-led Filinvest Development Corp., Gokongwei’s JG Summit Holdings, Inc., Philippine Airport Ground Support Solutions, Inc. and Changi Airport Philippines.
The Bases Conversion and Development Authority (BCDA) qualified two bid submissions on Nov. 9 for the 25-year concession period to operate the airport.
Aside from NLAC, the X-Droid Consortium, formed by Indonesia’s Angkasa Pura II, Michael L. Romero’s Globalport 900, Inc., Alfredo M. Yao’s Mazy’s Capital, Inc. and Desco, Inc. submitted a bid.
In the opening of technical documents on Nov. 19 and of financial documents on Nov. 27, both live streamed on the Facebook page of BCDA, only NLAC’s submissions were opened. Its financial bid promised an 18.25% percentage share of gross revenue to the government, above the minimum requirement which is 10%.
X-Droid’s submissions were not opened, without providing explanations why. A BCDA representative told BusinessWorld on Friday it cannot issue a statement on the developments of the bidding until the whole process is complete.
Based on Sections 9.1 and 9.3 of the Build-Operate-Transfer Law, a bidder is subjected to direct negotiation with the NEDA Investment Coordination Committee if it is the only participant left compliant to bid requirements.
Special Bids and Awards Committee (SBAC) Chairperson Joshua M. Bingcang said last month the awarding of the O&M contract is targeted this December. — Denise A. Valdez

Economists see RRR cuts as inflation eases

By Melissa Luz T. Lopez, Senior Reporter
THE CENTRAL BANK may now proceed with planned cuts in bank reserves next year as inflation is sure to go down, bank analysts said.
Economists at the Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) and ING Bank N.V. Manila said the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) may resume lowering the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) early 2019, in view of slower inflation for the coming months.
The BSP voted to keep benchmark interest rates unchanged this week, noting that inflation is expected to trek a “lower path” over the next two years as oil and food prices are on their way down.
This ended five consecutive rate hikes since May worth a total of 175 basis points (bp), with November’s 25-bp increase dubbed a “proactive” move to anchor inflation expectations.
Inflation estimates were also revised lower to 5.2% this year from an earlier 5.3% forecast. Price increases will further decelerate to 3.18% next year (from 3.5%) and to 3.04% (from 3.3%) by 2020.
This means that inflation is sure to return to the 2-4% target band over the next two years.
“The lower inflation forecasts increase the likelihood that the BSP may be done with its recent tightening cycle with the next series of moves probably in the realm of monetary easing,” said ING senior economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa.
“The BSP will likely slash reserve requirement ratios (RRR) as early as 1Q with inflation decelerating while domestic liquidity conditions remains tight (latest M3 growth at 8.2%).”
Reducing the mandated bank reserves will free up more cash in the financial system, as lenders can now deploy more funds for lending and investments.
The RRR is currently at 18%, down from 20% previously after two cuts which took effect earlier this year. BSP Governor Nestor A. Espenilla, Jr. has said they will go back to trimming reserve requirements next year, in line with his goal of bringing it down to single-digit level by the end of his term as central bank chief.
On the other hand, BPI lead economist Emilio S. Neri, Jr. said the central bank will likely prioritize “structural reforms” to boost money supply before actual interest rate cuts.
“In particular, a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio will likely be the next policy move of the BSP in mid-2019. We expect the central bank to cut the RRR by at least 2% next year,” Mr. Neri said in a separate commentary.
The bank analyst noted that the pressure to raise rates “has gone down significantly,” but added that rate cuts may not be introduced just yet to give time for the central bank to replenish its gross international reserves and anchor the peso-dollar rate.
On the other hand, Sanjay Mathur of ANZ Research had a less dovish view, saying that the BSP’s rate tightening cycle has ended as policy makers “conveyed greater confidence” that inflation will return to below four percent sooner.
BSP Assistant Governor Francisco G. Dakila, Jr. said on Thursday that they now expect inflation to return to below 4% by the end of the first quarter of 2019, versus their previous forecast of being above-target during the first semester.
However, Fitch Solutions said they still expect rate hikes worth 50 bps in 2019 as inflation is likely to remain above-target, despite latest pronouncements made by central bank officials.
“Although the primary objective of the BSP is price stability, we believe that further rate hikes will be necessary to address the negative real interest differential against the US, in order to reduce downside pressure on the peso,” the unit of Fitch Group said in a report.
The policy-setting Monetary Board will hold their next review on Feb. 7, 2019.

Peso plunges to one-month low on BSP decision

THE PESO slipped to a one-month low on Friday, reacting to the central bank’s decision to keep rates steady and as the dollar picked up across the board in reaction to events in China and Europe.
The local unit weakened to P52.88 versus the greenback, down 26 centavos from the P52.62 finish on Thursday. This is the peso’s weakest showing since a P53.09 finish in Nov. 14.
The peso traded generally weaker on Friday, opening at P52.66 which was its best showing for the day. The currency touched a low of P52.90 before settling at the closing rate.
Dollars traded on Friday reached $677.75 million, lower than the $697.65 million which exchanged hands the previous day.
Two traders attributed the currency’s movements to a stronger dollar in light of offshore developments, plus the decision of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to end its tightening cycle for domestic interest rates.
“The peso traded higher, which is possibly a reflection of the unchanged interest rate and at the same time news from China data. Demand for dollar was strong across the board,” one trader said in a phone interview.
The BSP voted to keep benchmark interest rates unchanged on Thursday, noting that inflation is expected to trek a “lower path” over the next two years as oil and food prices are on their way down. A second trader said this is a “minus” for the peso.
Meanwhile, Reuters reported weak factory output and retail sales data for November to settle below expectations.
Another trader said the greenback also drew strength from a weaker pound sterling, as the United Kingdom faces a deadlock in forging its “Brexit” deal to break away from the European Union.
“I assume also that seasonal flows are trickling in already — it’s the repatriation of funds of multinationals to their mother country,” the second trader said. — Melissa Luz T. Lopez

PHL stock index closes little changed

LOCAL shares ended flat on Friday as market sentiment was dampened by Chinese retail sales and industrial output data showing continued weakness in the world’s second largest economy.
The bellwether Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) inched up 0.02% or 1.45 points to close at 7,524.37 on Friday. The broader all-shares index was down by 0.02% or 0.83 points to 4,506.50.
“Our index ended flat today despite rising by as high as 7,559 and this is probably influenced by the disappointing Chinese retail sales data that was released today,” Jervin S. de Celis, equity trader at Timson Securities, Inc. said in a message on Friday.
“I assume this slowdown in the Chinese economy has dampened market sentiments today that led to the PSEi’s flat closing,” he added.
Reuters reported China’s November retail sales grew by 8.1%, the weakest pace since 2003 and below expectations. Industrial output went up by a disappointing 5.4% year-on-year in November, matching same level in January-February 2016.
Mr. de Celis noted this could be an effect of the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China.
“Since China is our largest trading partner, any deceleration in their economy won’t be beneficial to ours so if this trend continues, the Chinese government may implement some fiscal and monetary measures to support growth next year,” he noted.
Most of the sub-indices ended in the red. Losers were led by mining and oil which was down by 0.99% at 8,198.55, and property which fell O.20% to 3,641.17. Holding firms slipped 0.20% to 7,430.11, while financials closed 0.14% lower to end at 1,785.55.
On the other hand, services went up by 1.33% or 18.71 points to 1,431.07, and industrial rose by 0.79% or 86.06 points to 10,963.
Some 1.272 billion shares valued at P6.847 billion switched hands on Friday, up from Thursday’s P6.09-billion value turnover. Advancers beat decliners, 100 to 79, while 42 names remained unchanged.
Foreign selling was logged at P691.235-million on Friday, a reversal of Thursday’s net purchases worth P324.84-million.
“We continue to monitor the VIX fear gauge (volatility measure based on S&P 500 options) as well, a good indicator of investor sentiment. We’ve seen the VIX declining throughout the week in response to positive trade war developments. If this continues to improve, we may be able to look forward to a yearend rally,” Arbee B. Lu, head of online trading at Papa Securities Corp., said in an email.
Ms. Lu said the market is on its way to test resistance at 7,617 as long as it does not go beyond the 7,330 level.
Timson Securities’ Mr. De Celis said the PSEi may trade between 7,400 and 7,600 next week “as we wait for more catalyst to support the upward movement of our index.”
“Investors may take some cues in the upcoming FOMC meeting and their projections for the US economy for 2019. If rates remain unchanged, foreign selling in our market may take a breather at least for a few days,” he said, referring to the Federal Reserve’s Dec. 18-19 meeting. — Vincent Mariel P. Galang

Philippine firms honored in ASEAN Business Awards 2018

To recognize the best and brightest in Southeast Asia’s business community, the ASEAN Business Advisory Council (ASEAN BAC) launched the annual ASEAN Business Awards (ABA) in Singapore.

A total of 76 awards were given out to 60 of the region’s most outstanding companies, which included among many distinguished others well-known firms in the Philippines like Jollibee Foods Corporation, Wilcon Depot, Inc., Century Pacific Food, Inc., the Center for Agriculture and Rural Development (CARD), Inc., and Seaoil Philippines, Inc.

Initially launched in 2007, the yearly Awards ceremony seeks to acknowledge and recognize outstanding ASEAN businesses that have shown significant progress in establishing and reinforcing their positions, in a myriad of industry sectors among which are Agri-Business, Automotive, Logistics, Energy, Finance, Food and Beverage, Retail, and Infrastructure.

ABA has recognized more than 100 Southeast Asian companies that have made their mark in categories like Growth, Employment, Innovation and Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) since its inception. The Awards have also expanded its reach to include Priority Integration Sectors of the ASEAN, as well as honor the young entrepreneurs and sustainable enterprises that are changing the landscape towards the better.

“Into its 12th edition, the Awards provide an opportunity for businesses to garner greater exposure and to expand their network within the ASEAN business community and the global stage,” the ASEAN BAC wrote on its Web site.

A new addition this year is the Family Business Award which aims to recognize family enterprises for their outstanding successes and sustainable growth in ASEAN. Century Pacific Food, Inc., the Philippines’ largest canned food company and leading exporter of original equipment manufacturer (OEM) tuna and coconut products, won this award.

Other Philippine companies also bagged awards across multiple categories. Filipino-owned manufacturing and distribution firm Pioneer Adhesives, Inc., formerly known as Republic Chemical Industries Inc., was recognized for its outstanding contributions to the Priority Integration Sector for Automotives. Pioneer is known for leading brands Pioneer Epoxy, Pioneer Mighty Bond, and Pioneer Elastoseal.

Seaoil Philippines, Inc., the largest independent fuel companies in the Philippines and international partner of Caltex Australia, was lauded for its presence in the Priority Integration Sector for Energy.

Meanwhile, Filipino giant Jollibee Foods Corporation was given similar recognition for its exceptional performance in the Priority Integration Sector for Food and Beverage. The company, which owns brands like Jollibee, Chowking, and Mang Inasal, has reported double-digit growth in the first half of 2018.

Global port management company International Container Terminal Services, Inc. (ICTSI) won the recognition for its performance in Logistics in ABA’s Priority Integration Sector. ICTSI has been cited by the Asian Development Bank as one of the top five major maritime terminal operators in the world.

Wilcon Depot, Inc., the country’s leading home improvement and construction supply retailer, was recognized for its excellent performance in the ABA’s Priority Integration Sector for Retail. The company has reported more than P900 million in net income in the first half of 2018 alone.

The microfinance nongovernment organization CARD, Inc. won the award for ABA’s Sustainable Social Enterprise category. CARD, Inc. is a social development organization that aims to eradicate poverty in the Philippines and in ASEAN regions through microfinance and community-based development programs. Currently, the company has served more than 2.1 million microfinance clients in the country from the rural towns and municipalities, and has operations in Myanmar, Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, Indonesia, Thailand, and Hong Kong.

Last but not least, Coffee for Peace, Inc. (CFP) won the award for SME Excellence in the Corporate Social Responsibility category. CFP has helped facilitate informal conflict mediation with their whole Mindanao-based peace-building network between certain Migrant and Bangsamoro farming communities. In partnership with the PeaceBuilders Community, the company trains farmers to plant, grow, and process Arabica coffee and civet coffee in accordance with world-class standards, which CFP then purchases for its products.

Other Philippine finalists include the Cinco Corporation, which operates the popular French fries franchise Potato Corner, commercial and residential real estate firm Santos Knight Frank, Inc., and pioneer electric vehicle assembly firm Philippine Utility Vehicles, Inc. Leandro Antonio L. Leviste, founder and president of Solar Philippines, was a finalist for the ABA Young Entrepreneur Award.

The Philippines had over 100 ABA aspirants this year, to which the country won eight out of the 21 awards.

The ASEAN BAC retains the independence and impartiality of the ABA through the selection of a strategic partner every year. Global professional services firm EY served as this year’s partner and aided in the shortlisting of nominees, criteria-setting, selection of judges and implementation of the ABA framework.

The Awards Gala Dinner was presided by Mdm Halimah Yacob, president of the Republic of Singapore and the guest-of-honor. It was held in The Ritz-Carlton, Millenia Singapore. — Bjorn Biel M. Beltran

Policy rates steady on inflation view

By Melissa Luz T. Lopez
Senior Reporter
MONETARY AUTHORITIES held fire on policy rates on Thursday, marking the end of five straight tightening moves this year, amid expectations that inflation will decelerate faster than initially thought.
The policy-setting Monetary Board of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) voted to keep benchmark interest rates unchanged on Thursday, keeping the range at a nine-year-high 4.25-5.25%.
Inflation is now expected to trek a “lower path” over the next two years, prompting the BSP to steady benchmark rates.
“Recent headline inflation readings indicate signs of receding price pressures as constraints on food supply continue to ease with the implementation of various non-monetary measures,” BSP Assistant Governor Francisco G. Dakila, Jr. said in a press briefing.
“Inflation expectations have also steadied given the decline in international crude oil prices and the stabilization of the peso,” he added.
“The baseline projection is that we will be back to below four percent by around the end of Q1 2019. This is a significant shortening of the… period when we will be above the inflation target band.”
The pause comes in the wake of five straight rate increases totalling 175 basis points (bp) since May, with two consecutive hikes worth 50 bp launched in August and September as inflation surged to the highest level in nearly a decade. The key policy rate is now 4.75%.
Eleven of 12 economists asked in a BusinessWorld poll last week said they expected the BSP to keep rates steady, convinced that inflation is finally on its way down.
Inflation eased to six percent last month from a nine-year-high 6.7% in September and October, confirming the state’s view that price increases will soften and will eventually return to the 2-4% target range some time next year.
However, the year-to-date pace still averaged 5.2% in the 11 months to November against the central bank’s 2-4% target range for 2018.
“… [T]he risks to the inflation outlook have become more evenly balanced for 2019 and lean toward the downside for 2020 amid a more uncertain global economic environment, which could further mitigate upward pressures from commodity prices in the coming months,” the central bank added.
“Given these considerations, the Monetary Board deemed it prudent for the time being to keep monetary policy settings steady and allow previous monetary responses to continue to work their way through the economy.”
Still, Mr. Dakila said the central bank is ready to “take further policy action” as needed to keep prices stable, even as he noted that policy makers now see “quite significant deceleration” in price pressures.
INFLATION EASING
The central bank also gave lower inflation forecasts until 2020, noting that risks to the outlook have been easing to return rates below four percent faster.
Dennis D. Lapid, director of the BSP’s Department of Economic Research, said inflation will average 5.2% this year, down from an earlier upgraded 5.3% forecast.
Overall price increases of widely used goods will further decelerate to 3.18% next year (from 3.5%) and to 3.04% (from 3.3%) by 2020.
“Food supply has normalized, and as we anticipate the rice tariffication bill to be put into law, that will normalize food and rice prices,” Mr. Dakila added, noting that the sharp drop in oil prices can be expected to persist until next year.
“Actually, even if oil prices were to rise significantly compared to where they are today, we are still anticipating that inflation will be within target. We’re now a lot more comfortable that the 2019 inflation target will be achieved.”
Central bank officials said during their November review that inflation will likely hover above target through the first half of 2019.
END OF HIKES
Bank analysts said the BSP is now at the end of its tightening cycle as inflation is becoming less of a problem.
Chidu Narayanan, economist at Standard Chartered Bank, said the BSP might not have to raise rates anymore as inflation will “likely to come down quite rapidly in 2019,” given a high base effect, and with the fading impact of tax reforms and poor weather.
“With inflation set to drop back sharply over the coming months, we suspect the next move will be a rate cut,” said Alex Holmes, economist at Capital Economics.
“With growth slowing and headwinds building, we think the emphasis will soon turn to support the economy.”
A “proactive” 25 bp tightening move was introduced during the BSP’s Nov. 15 meeting, which was meant to anchor inflation expectations.
Back then, central bank officials had already noted that non-monetary measures introduced by the Executive have been taking effect, facilitating distribution of food and consequently alleviating price pressures.
Thursday’s decision means that key rates will remain steady until early 2019, as the next BSP review is set on Feb. 7.

The fall and rise of Philippine music


By Bjorn Biel M. Beltran, Special Features Writer
AT THE University of the Philippines Fair early this year, April Hernandez had the lucky role of opening for the popular band IV of Spades. Under the stage name “TheSunManager,” she has just around 3,000 monthly listeners on Spotify while IV of Spades has a following of over a million.
So Ms. Hernandez played her set with the knowledge that most of her regular listeners did not show up to support her. She even understood when many in the audience started cheering in the middle of her performance when they saw IV of Spades’ roadies setting up the band’s equipment behind her.
“Who am I compared to IV of Spades?” she said in an interview, smiling. “It’s like that. I’m used to it.”
What she was not ready for was her manager pointing to someone in the audience during her performance. Amid the sea of IV of Spades banners and placards, a girl was holding up a sheet of paper with a message.
It read, “Hi TheSunManager. Your music saved my life.”
Ms. Hernandez created the indie-folk persona of TheSunManager while studying at the College of Fine Arts in UP Diliman. As TheSunManager, she released a self-titled EP in 2014, and released her debut full-length album, entitled Worth, in early February of 2017. Currently, she works as an industrial designer for a business run by her aunt, a job that allows her the time and freedom to pursue what she calls her “other job.”
She is one of the legions of independent musicians carving their own niches in the Philippines’ music scene, an industry that has been seeing a resurgence in recent years amid the opportunities brought about by online streaming services like Spotify and YouTube.
Online streaming services, which mostly operate on a subscription-based business model, have both revolutionized the way consumers listen to music, and how artists produce it. Rather than having to buy individual albums or singles from any particular artist, consumers need only pay a recurring fee for access to a library of millions of songs made by artists from all over the world, which they can then listen to any time and anywhere as long as they have a data connection.
The benefits for the artists are twofold. The open nature of such services has given small-time musicians like Ms. Hernandez a platform on which to release their music and draw an audience, while those with larger fanbases get paid by the listeners who would have otherwise resorted to pirating their content.
In fact, streaming has become the biggest contributor to the growth of the recorded music market. According to data released by the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry (IFPI) in April, streaming is the industry’s single largest revenue source, the main driver of its recorded growth in 2017.
The global recorded music market grew by 8.1% to a total of $17.3 billion last year, its third consecutive year of growth since IFPI began tracking the market in 1997.
“Streaming remains the main driver of recovering revenues and, for the first time, has become the single largest revenue source with 176 million users of paid streaming services contributing to year-on-year streaming growth of 41.1%,” IFPI’s Global Music Report 2018 said.
“Streaming now accounts for 38.4% of total recorded music revenue and its growth has more than offset a 5.4% decline in physical revenue and a 20.5% decline in download revenue.”
What’s more, grouped collectively with all digital formats, total digital income last year accounted for more than half of all revenue (54%), the first time in the industry’s history.
Which is a welcome development, as far as music is concerned.
Historically, the advent of digital technology has spelled nothing but catastrophe for the global recording industry, at least in terms of revenues.
THE PIRATES
Around the turn of the millennium, the global recording industry took a huge hit with the arrival of peer-to-peer file sharing. The Napster and LimeWire networks together were used by several millions of people who were stealing music and redistributing it for free all over the world.
How many dollars were lost to such piracy is still largely unknown, but many accounts figure it in the billions. Total revenues for CDs, vinyl, cassettes, and digital downloads in the United States in the 21st century reportedly dropped to $9 billion in 2008 from a height of $14.6 billion in 1999.
IFPI data indicated that despite 2017 being the industry’s third consecutive year of growth, it followed 15 years of significant revenue decline. The revenues in 2017, despite the uplift, were still only 68.4% of the market’s peak in 1999.
Before peer-to-peer file sharing, cassette tapes and compact discs (CDs) opened the door to music piracy around the world. Emerging as an effective, convenient, and portable way of listening to music in the 1970s and the 1980s, the cassette tape also had the useful feature of being recordable, allowing individuals to copy music onto the tape directly from the radio. Recordable CDs, which exploded as a popular method of electronic data storage in the 1990s, made copying music even easier.
In a smaller market like the Philippines, this was perhaps even more pronounced. Marivic A. Benedicto, chair of the Philippine Association of the Record Industry, said in an interview that music recording certification around the late 2000s had to change because CD sales could not support the previous model any longer.
“Gold and platinum records used to signify 15,000 and 30,000 units sold, but no one was reaching gold anymore,” she told BusinessWorld.
“We decided to lower the threshold. From what was 15,000 and 30,000, it became 10,000 and 20,000. Then two years later, we had to lower it again to 7.5 thousand and 15,000. That’s where it is at now.”
It is in this climate that Spotify finally came into the country in 2014 under a partnership with Globe Telecom. The online streaming platform, Ms. Benedicto said, offered fixed global rates in exchange for the license to distribute over 90% of the Philippine record industry’s repertoire.
Music labels, publishers, and composer groups welcomed the proposal with open arms, in the knowledge that there was no better alternative for their salvation. Major record labels like Warner Music Group were ditching physical sales altogether to make way for a new era of music. Everything that the industry knew at this point had changed. Streaming — digital music in general — had become the future.
UBIQUITOUS
Last October, IFPI released its Music Consumer Insight Report 2018, which examined the ways in which music consumers aged 16-64 engaged with recorded music across 20 of the world’s largest music markets. Unsurprisingly, it found that 86% of consumers listen to music through on-demand streaming, with the youth being the most engaged. More than half (57%) of streamers aged 16 to 24 years old admitted to using a paid audio streaming service.
“Streaming is virtually ubiquitous,” the report concluded.
On average, each of the respondents listened to music 17.8 hours per week, with the car being the most popular listening location. Music consumers especially enjoyed listening to local music genres, with 66% of consumers in Japan listening to J-pop, 69% of consumers in France listening to Variété Française, and, in Brazil, 55% listening to Música popular brasileira.
While specific data on the Philippines was not included, that the recent resurgence of popular “original Pinoy music” (OPM) is in part due to the advent of digital music platforms had already become a worn-out talking point.
“Accessibility-wise, [Spotify] became an advantage,” Ms. Hernandez said. “It was kind of difficult at first, because not everyone had Spotify yet. But it slowly became the standard for listening to music. It’s just easy.
Just have an account and then you can listen to so many types of music. As musicians, that’s what we tap into, as the most accessible platform.”
In addition to Spotify, websites like Bandcamp and Soundcloud have ignited a spark that set the careers of grass roots musicians ablaze.
“Online streaming platforms like Spotify and Soundcloud democratized music consumption. It made it easier for local artists to be heard and to compete globally,” Dinah Remolacio, executive director of the PhilPop Foundation, the organization responsible for the annual Philippine Popular Music Festival, said in an e-mail.
“There is a resurgence of OPM. The local music industry is teeming with excellent millennial bands and a new breed of songwriters. As proof, PhilPop receives thousands of entries every year. There are also hyperactivity of music scene in VisMin (Visayas-Mindanao) areas, with the advent of [the] Bisaya Music Festival, VisPop and Mindanao Music Festival.”
Ms. Hernandez said artists like her could simply make use of independent digital music distribution services like DistroKid to publish their discography on platforms like Spotify, Amazon, and iTunes. Such services are slowly supplanting conventional record labels in the role as the mediators between the musicians and the digital platforms. For a set fee, DistroKid and other similar services ensure independent artists get published on their platforms of choice and collect any royalties they earn in their place.
TheSunManager came into her own in this way. Songs were recorded, the albums uploaded and distributed, the websites built, all with minimal outside help.
“I have my own home studio, because it’s now cheaper to build your own as opposed to before when you had to book a studio,” Ms. Hernandez said. “It used to cost tens of thousands of pesos to record an album, and how much of that will see returns? It wasn’t a sound investment. Now, I can just buy a recording interface for about 15 to 20,000 [pesos], and I can make a number of albums out of it.”
She’s in great company. Artists like Reese Lansangan, Autotelic, Ben&Ben, and even phenomena like the FlipTop Battle League — the first and largest professional rap battle conference in the country — have found massive success in independently reaching an audience through digital platforms.
Even a band as big as IV of Spades shares the sentiment. “Having the access to music production can help local artists to create music on their own. For us, digital technology is not an enemy, but rather a change when it comes to creating a generation movement,” the band said in an e-mail.
“Online streaming has helped starting artists to share their music to a wider audience. It has also helped the listeners to have a wider repertoire when it comes to listening to music. This streaming era would be one of the trademarks of our generation’s music.”
“They don’t even need record labels now. That’s something we have to struggle with all the time,” PARI’s Ms. Benedicto admitted. “Are we giving enough premium that artists will still come to us? That’s the dilemma of the record industry.”
“It’s so easy to self-publish today. [Artists] don’t need record labels, they don’t need a corporate structure to propagate their music.”
BREAKING DOWN BARRIERS
Digital technology, much like the radio and television before it, has broken down the barriers of communication, allowing culture to transcend local borders and connect people together. Worldwide, independent music has seen an unprecedented consumption boom as more people get exposed to music that was once unavailable to them.
The Merlin Network, which represents the rights of the independent label sector in 53 countries, including Brazil, Mexico, Chile, the Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia, North America, the UK, and Europe, found that 42% of independent labels received more than half their digital revenue from consumption outside their home territory. By comparison, only 17% stated this was the case for physical sales of CDs or vinyl. Audio streaming accounts for the bulk of digital revenue for two-thirds of Merlin members.
Charles Caldas, CEO of Merlin, said in a statement: “Merlin’s independent record label members already occupy a unique position on streaming services, with their repertoire consistently over-indexing on subscription tiers compared to free ad-supported ones. Users of these services deeply engage with Merlin members’ music and are willing to pay for it.
“We now have irrefutable evidence that the new dynamics of streaming are opening up previously inaccessible territories to independent music, with a phenomenal consumption surge in Latin America and across Asia. What feels particularly exciting is that we’re only at the start of this growth trajectory — and with potential of relatively untapped markets, including China, Russia and Africa, still to be realized.”
The question now is this: With so much growth in the music industry, is music now a viable way to earn a living?
One would think that the prevalence of music in the age of content creation will cultivate a heightened appreciation for the medium and its makers. Surely with the incredible reach of platforms like Spotify, Bandcamp, SoundCloud, and even crowdfunding websites like Patreon, Kickstarter, or Indiegogo, digital technology has in some way improved how artists make money from their art?
In reality, as with most things, it’s a bit more complicated than it appears.
“This is a complicated question because it somehow implies that there was and is money to be made in the first place,” Monika E. Schoop, a post-doctoral researcher in the Musicology department at Cologne University, Germany, said in an e-mail.
Ms. Schoop has spent most of the decade researching about the Philippines’ independent music scene and how digital technology is shaping it. Her book, Independent Music and Digital Technology in the Philippines, explores “the diverse and innovative music production, distribution, promotion and financing strategies that have become constitutive of the independent music scene in 21st century Manila” through extensive fieldwork online and offline.
What she found was that the machinations that allowed for the explosive growth of independent labels have created the issues that pushed the decline of the major recording industry (i.e. labels like Warner, EMI, Sony BMG, and MCA which suffered major losses due to CD-R piracy in the early 2000s and later on through file sharing). Piracy remains a key of these concerns.
“Digital technology has provided the means for the rise of independent music and for the decline of the major recording industry alike,” Ms. Schoop said. “You could say that it’s two sides of the same coin. While it has facilitated access to music production and distribution for many, who previously had no or limited access, it has also provided new tools for music piracy. Piracy had of course already been around before (especially with regard to cassettes) but it has been taken to a new level though CD-Rs, file sharing and unauthorized downloads.”
Data from IFPI’s Music Consumer Insight Report 2018 found that still more than one-third (38%) of consumers obtain music through infringing methods — with stream ripping the dominant method (32% of consumers). While this was not to the extent it was more than a decade ago, the effect was the birth of a codependent relationship between major record companies and the digital platforms that mitigated such piracy. Nearly half (47%) of all time spent listening to on-demand music is through a single platform: YouTube.
Ms. Benedicto admitted that the biggest revenue generators for PARI members are YouTube and Spotify. In the case of YouTube, major record labels have the nifty feature of having their intellectual property protected by content ID algorithms that allow them to monetize user-generated content that use their music.
Sophisticated algorithms, however, do little to bridle the immense power these platforms have over the global music industry. Ultimately, what record labels stand to earn from the distribution of music through these platforms completely depends on how much the platforms decide to pay them for it, regardless of how much was actually earned from its use, a legal conundrum that IFPI calls “the value gap.”
To quote IFPI’s Global Music Report 2018, the value gap is “the mismatch between the value created by some digital platforms from their use of music and what they pay to those creating and investing in it.”
When Google released its “How Google Fights Piracy” report in November, a 25-page document that detailed the internet behemoth’s anti-piracy principles, Frances Moore, chief executive of IFPI, had this to say: “We welcome Google’s recognition that it and Google’s YouTube need to operate responsibly and properly value creators and their work. However, the figures in Google’s anti-piracy paper don’t match our own.
“It is difficult to get any clarity on Google’s claims as it doesn’t explain its methodology, but IFPI data shows that revenue returning to the record industry through video streaming services (including but not limited to YouTube) with 1.3 billion users amounted to US$856 million in 2017 — less than half of Google’s claim and less than US $1 per user per year.”
Ms. Moore said that in contrast, audio subscription services (both paid and ad-supported) with a much smaller user base of 272 million users compensated creators some $5.6 billion — a little more than $20 per user per year.
“This is the reality of the ‘value gap’ — in which user-upload platforms, such as YouTube, exploit music for profit without returning fair compensation to music creators,” she concluded.
Spotify’s record is far from clean as well. Many reports have already detailed the criticisms lobbed at the music streaming giant regarding artist compensation, with singer Taylor Swift being one of the company’s most prominent critics.
This is not mentioning that existing power structures and inequalities are being inadvertently reinforced by such Western-centric platforms.
“Research has shown that this is, e.g. the case for SoundCloud — artists from London and New York are more likely to ‘be found’ than artists from South East Asia. There is reason to be skeptical of the promise that digital technology leads to a real democratization of the music business,” Ms. Schoop said.
SHOW ME THE MONEY
For independent musicians, revenues from streaming are virtually non-existent.
“I can’t say that I super love Spotify. How much do we actually get each stream per song?” Ms. Hernandez said.
She admitted that unless they reach the heights of popularity currently enjoyed by the likes of IV of Spades or Ben&Ben, new artists do not have any guarantees that they can support themselves through their music, even with music distribution as free as it is now.
Part of the problem is inherent in the nature of globalization. As local shops and brands have to contend with added competition from foreign brands in exchange for the ability to bring their own wares to foreign markets, so do local artists have to compete for the spotlight on a global stage.
Some take this as a challenge. IV of Spades believes such platforms “challenged local artists to be more competent when it comes to raising the quality of creating music, especially in recording and production.”
For others, it remains a matter of opportunity and hard work.
“Even if your music is great or your branding is great, there’s always going to be factors of luck. I don’t mean to sound like a cynic but sometimes only right timing and hard work is the perfect combination. Even if you’re super hardworking, if your timing is off in terms of what the market trend is right now, you’re not going to leave a mark,” Ms. Hernandez said.
“This is the age of disruption. The digital platforms made everything more accessible and readily available. But disruption is a double-edged sword. With millions of artists trying to break through, and endless content supply that is readily available to the public, artists must be brilliant and creative enough to set himself apart from the rest of the herd,” Ms. Remolacio added.
The number of Filipino artists who can make a living making music in the country is so small that, in all her time spent doing fieldwork in the Philippines, Ms. Schoop mostly encountered musicians who, like Ms. Hernandez, had to have day jobs to make ends meet.
“More generally (not limited to the Philippine context) selling music as a product has become less lucrative and less important; the live sector has become more important. This also includes the sale of merch [merchandise] at shows,” she said.
“I do not have access to figures here but… from the experience of friends who run labels or are musicians platforms like Spotify are more about exposure that about actually making money.”
Ms. Benedicto agreed. There is still a healthy number of people keeping the live sector afloat, bolstered by the sales of merchandise like zines, freebies, stickers, posters, and downloadable codes.
“It’s like that if you’re indie. The recording doesn’t make you the money. It’s the bookings,” she said, adding that many fans today are happy to pay to see and support their idols live.
In an ideal world, Ms. Benedicto noted, music and the arts are meant to be free. As methods of self-expression, she said they are truly meant to be shared and appreciated by everyone. Copyright, along with the institutions and industries that have risen around it, are legal fixes only put in place to protect artists from exploitation. Sophisticated as such institutions have become, especially in the wake of the digital revolution, music as its core hasn’t changed.
“Music is about connecting to people,” she said.
CONNECTION
Digital technology then is not a panacea for the ills that for so long have plagued the industry. But it has changed what music can become for artists and listeners alike, closing a gap between art and audience that before was unfathomable.
With so much music available nowadays, one would think that achieving a genuine connection with a song is more a product of serendipity than artistry. However, never has it been easier to find and personally connect with music than in the era of Big Data, where algorithms like Spotify’s Discover Weekly tailor-fits a different, specific playlist of songs for each user every week, and YouTube’s Suggested Videos sidebar which accounts for roughly 75% to 80% of the Philippine record industry’s views.
While the exposure does not necessarily translate into adequate monetary compensation, for many it’s simply enough to be heard.
“The fans are the people who give reason for artists to continue,” IV of Spades said.
“[Independent artists] are not people-pleasers in a way. They don’t sing to make money and they don’t sing to please a lot of people. Most sing to please themselves and express themselves,” Ms. Benedicto said.
Ms. Schoop added, “I am still fascinated by the endurance of many artists. They often work long hours during the day, some have family responsibilities, and still play shows late at night — often putting up with the insane traffic to get to the venues. I really have lots of respect for that.”
Algorithm-based as it is, the relationship formed between artist and audience is no less genuine. Ms. Hernandez recalled that night at the UP Fair as one of the highlights of her music career.
“As much as there are many practical struggles, for me it’s still those little moments why I do what I do. That’s the goal,” she said.
“For me, I don’t find pleasure in just playing or making music. I think the reason why I really enjoy music is the connection it creates with people. That I can make a song and then this total stranger can hear it and she might feel that this person knows me or that they’re not so alone.”
“That sort of became what I want to do in life: to connect with people, help people out. Music is just one way for me to do that,” she added.
Moving forward, it is unclear whether the issue-laden YouTube and Spotify model of consuming music will be the conclusive way for artists to receive their due. With technological progress speeding up each passing year, it’s difficult to tell whether the recent recovery of the music industry is a sign of things to come, or simply a hopeful rally before its continued decline. What is clear is that for as long as intimate connections like that can be found, and for as long as humanity’s ceaseless need to create art endures, the industry has yet more music to play.

BSP sets additional capital buffer for banks

THE BANGKO SENTRAL ng Pilipinas (BSP) has approved a new measure meant to boost banks’ capital to equip them further to weather episodes of financial stress.
In a statement on Thursday, the Monetary Board announced the approval of the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) as a new preventive tool to better manage funding risks.
Being “countercyclical” means universal and commercial banks as well as their subsidiaries will have to set aside more funds during boom or growth periods that they can then use amid a funding crunch so that they can keep on lending money.
The CCyB will be on top of the capital adequacy ratio, which requires big lenders to hold on to at least 10% of their risk-weighted assets at all times.
The CCyB is set at a maximum of 2.5%, but starts at zero percent.
This prudential tool is included in the international Basel 3 framework, although the central bank initially decided not to adopt the standard until earlier this year.
Other buffers in place are the common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio at six percent, the high-quality or tier 1 capital ratio of 7.5%, and the capital conversation buffer also at 2.5%.
The BSP said banks will use their CET1 capital to comply with the CCyB requirement.
The press statement quoted BSP Governor Nestor A. Espenilla, Jr. as saying that the CCyB provides a “steadying hand” amid boom-and-bust cycles.
“During periods of continuing expansion, the CCyB may be raised which has the effect of setting aside capital which can be used if difficult times ensue,” the central bank said.
“During periods of stress, the Monetary Board can lower the CCyB requirement, effectively providing the affected banks with more risk capital to deploy.”
The central bank said that the CCyB’s start at zero percent “suggests that the Monetary Board does not see the ongoing build-up of credit as an imminent risk that would otherwise require an increase in the capital position of banks.”
“The buffer, however, will be continuously reviewed by the BSP.”
Banks will be given 12 months period to raise funds should the BSP increase the buffer level. On the other hand, a reduction in the CCyB takes effect immediately.
Mr. Espenilla on Dec. 6 signed Circular No. 1024 that provides for the CCyB which takes effect 15 days after publication.
The international Basel 3 framework is a set of preventive measures meant to ensure a solid footing for banks. These guarantee that lenders will not fold, drawing lessons from the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. — Melissa Luz T. Lopez

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