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US eyes 50- and 100-year debt

WITH interest rates on 30-year US debt hitting all-time lows last week, the government is once again considering whether to start borrowing for even longer.

The US Treasury Department said Friday that it wants to know what investors think about the government potentially issuing 50-year or 100-year bonds, going way beyond the current three-decade maximum.

The government stressed that no decision has yet been made on ultra-long bonds, explaining that it’s looking to “refresh its understanding of market appetite.” The idea was broached before, back in 2017, but was shelved after receiving a less-than-warm reception.

“This comes up every now and again,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, US rates strategist at TD Securities. “Every time the takeaway is, there simply isn’t enough demand at that tenor, or at least there hasn’t been in the past.”

The announcement follows a plunge in the 30-year yield to a record low last week below 2%, and also comes in the wake of many other nations opting to extend their borrowing profiles with so-called century bonds. Investors have snapped up 100-year bonds issued by the likes of Austria, although the experience of Argentina underscores some of the potential pitfalls of buying such long-maturity debt.

The yield on America’s current benchmark 30-year bond spiked to its highs of the day and the curve steepened following the Treasury announcement. The 30-year rate climbed as much as 8 basis points on the day to 2.05%, before ending the session at around 2.03%. The yield spread between the US’s longest-maturity debt and its two-year note widened the most in five weeks on Friday.

The Treasury’s group of market consultants, the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, has long been unenthusiastic on the prospect of an ultra-long issue, said Bruno Braizinha, director of US rates research at Bank of America.

The challenge for the Treasury would be to offer a yield attractive enough for the typical investor base of pension funds and institutions, while keeping a lid on the cost of borrowing for US taxpayers. — Bloomberg

Geopolitical tensions seen affecting PHL shares

By Arra B. Francia
Senior Reporter

THE MAIN INDEX may decline in the week should foreign investors continue to dump their shares in the local bourse due to the negative sentiment from geopolitical tensions abroad.

The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) slipped 0.42% or 32.88 points to close at 7,795.98 on Friday. It dropped 0.74% on a weekly basis, marking its fourth straight week in the red.

Net foreign selling stood at P4.53 billion on the back of a P35.64-billion turnover. The banking sector suffered most as it lost 3.91%, with both Security Bank Corp. and the Bank of the Philippine Islands down by more than 5%.

“If we see another sell-off from foreign investors, then this market may see another week of losses. We also may see the market calm down as investors wait out this storm,” AAA Southeast Equities, Inc. Research Head Christopher John Mangun said in a market report.

“The market is looking weaker and weaker by the day, and despite solid economic fundamentals and corporate earnings growth, it could not shake off the effect of these external headwinds.”

The PSEi followed most global stock markets which also ended lower last week as investors feared the possibility of a recession in the United States due to the US Treasury yield curve’s inversion.

An inverted yield curve happens when short-term bonds have higher interest rates compared to long-term bonds, indicating that investors see lower risks for long-term investments. Historically, this scenario has preceded every US recession since 1955.

On top of fears of a US recession, the trade war between the US and China has yet to see any new developments. In the meantime, US President Donald J. Trump has suggested to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping to help resolve the Hong Kong protests.

Meanwhile, Papa Securities Corp. Sales Associate Gabriel Jose F. Perez said the index will take its cues from Wall Street’s performance.

“The index will have to take its cues from US markets [this] week on a lack of clear and major catalysts for the PSEi,” Mr. Perez said in an e-mail.

On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1.20% or 306.62 points to 25,886.01, recovering after an 800.49-point drop midweek — its worst performance so far in 2019. The S&P 500 index also climbed 1.44% or 41.08 points to 2,888.68, while the Nasdaq Composite index went up 1.67% or 129.38 points to 7,895.99.

Investors are also looking at a shortened trading week as financial markets will be closed on Wednesday, Aug. 21, for Ninoy Aquino Day.

AAA Equities’ Mr. Mangun pegged the market’s support at 7,630 to 7,750, with resistance from 7,920 to 8,000.

Tyson Foods slaughterhouse fire ignites US beef prices

CHICAGO — Margins for US beef processors climbed to a record high on Friday as the closure of a Tyson Foods Inc slaughterhouse due to a damaging fire last week fueled concerns about a shortage of hamburger meat and steaks.

The indefinite shutdown sent meat buyers for restaurants, food service companies and grocery chains scrambling for beef, traders said, because the sprawling facility in Holcomb, Kansas, killed about 6,000 cattle a day, or 5% of the total US slaughter.

The fire accentuated already high margins in the US beef industry. Ranchers are raising more cattle to take advantage of strong consumer demand for beef, yet the number of slaughterhouses has declined over the past decade.

Profit margins for packers such as Tyson, Cargill Inc and JBS USA soared to $344 per head of cattle slaughtered, up from $153 a week ago before the fire and above the previous record of $308, according to Denver-based livestock marketing advisory service HedgersEdge.com.

Margins increased as prices for choice cuts of beef shipped to wholesale buyers in large boxes climbed 10% this week to $237.85 per cwt, after the fire reduced production, according to US Department of Agriculture data. Cattle producers, meanwhile, saw prices decline because the fire temporarily eliminated a key buyer of their livestock.

Cattle traded for $105 per hundredweight in cash markets in Kansas and Texas this week, down about 5% from the previous week, according to traders. That was the lowest price in the south since 2017, said Cassie Fish, a US beef expert.

Fish, who formerly worked for Tyson, said it was unprecedented to have prices for boxed beef and cattle make such strong moves in opposite directions.

“The loss of one plant — that’s a very scary thing,” she said. “It’s the suddenness of it. It’s the not being prepared.”

Processors leapt into action to take advantage of the strong margins at a time when demand for beef often rises ahead of the Labor Day holiday in the United States, traders said.

They are expected to increase Saturday’s slaughter to 74,000 cattle from 48,000 a week earlier and 67,000 a year ago, according to the USDA. That would bring this week’s kill to 651,000 cattle, up from 642,000 last week.

Cargill, the world’s biggest ground beef supplier, told Reuters it was working with its customers to ensure minimal disruptions to their operations from the fire. JBS did not respond to a request for comment.

Tyson said it will rebuild the plant in Holcomb and use other plants to keep its supply chain full. However, the company said in an e-mail to Reuters on Thursday it will be months before the facility returns to full production.

“Right now there is a shortage because that was a significantly important meat production facility,” said Colin Woodall, senior vice president of government affairs for the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, the industry’s main trade group.

Fast-food chain Wendy’s Co, famous for its fresh beef hamburgers, said it was in “close touch” with Tyson’s leadership team but did not expect disruptions to its supply.

CATTLE PRODUCERS LOSE MONEY
The fire could not have come at a worse time for cattlemen. The number of cattle being fed for slaughter reached 11.5 million head on July 1, a record high for that date since the USDA began tracking data in 1996.

The most actively traded October live cattle futures contract at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has tumbled 8% since the fire and set a contract low on Friday.

“A wreck is whenever there is no confidence in the market and prices are plummeting,” said Corbitt Wall, a Canyon, Texas-based livestock market analyst for DVAuction who formerly worked for the USDA. “That’s what it is, is a wreck.”

The USDA is closely monitoring the effects of Tyson’s fire and is ready to provide additional staff to other slaughterhouses that are killing more animals, Under Secretary Greg Ibach said in a statement.

The estimated increase in this week’s slaughter should bring down beef prices, said Mike Sands, president of MBS Research. However, the tight labor market may make it difficult for packers to keep killing more animals on Saturdays while Tyson’s plant remains closed indefinitely, he said.

Ultimately, gains in beef prices could pinch consumers, said Justin Lewis, vice president for broker KIS Futures in Oklahoma.

“The grocery stores are not going to eat it,” Lewis said. — Reuters

Better earnings make JG Summit an attractive stock — analysts

JG-Summit

BETTER EARNINGS and renewed investor interest made JG Summit Holdings, Inc. one of the most active stocks at the stock exchange last week.

A total of P464.489 million worth of 7.245 million shares were traded from Aug. 13 to 16, data from the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) showed.

“[JG Summit] rallied to as high as P66.5 [last week] on the back of its strong earnings for the first half of 2019 with net income surging by 63.05% year-on-year to P23.8 billion [from P14.6 billion],” said Philstocks Financial, Inc. Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco in an e-mail.

“The conglomerate showed strong fundamentals for the first half… Net margins also improved to 15% this first from 10% [in the same period last year] showing better efficiency in generating profits,” he added.

Mr. Tantiangco noted, however, that there has been some profit taking last Friday “amid the persistence of negative sentiment in the overall market brought by global economic worries.”

Prior to Friday’s profit-taking, the stock was up 5.5% to P66.5 per share from the previous week’s closing price of P63.05 per share. On Friday, its stock price went down by 4.5% to P63.5 per share from the previous day, bringing the stock’s week on week growth by just 0.7%.

Year to date, however, the price of the stock is up 15.25%.

Luis A. Limlingan, head of sales of Regina Capital Development Corp., likewise cited the JG Summit’s latest earnings report, noting that the company’s businesses “have performed strongly” during the April to June period.

“For starters, its airline unit Cebu Air, Inc. more than doubled its net income for the first half, reaching P7.14 billion, at the back of the stable volume and revenue growth, and better average fuel prices,” said Mr. Limlingan.

In a regulatory filing, the Gokongwei-led holding company reported an attributable profit of P9.96 billion in the second quarter, 99% more than the P5 billion during the same period in 2018.

The company’s consolidated revenues grew 11% to P82.18 billion during the period, coming mostly from snack and beverage firm Universal Robina Corp. (URC).

URC’s revenues during the quarter reached P33.72 billion, up 3% year on year.

In terms of revenue growth, its banking segment, under Robinsons Bank Corp. was the largest, surging by 45% to P2 billion during the quarter due to higher interest income.

Other segments that saw revenue growth were its airline segment through budget carrier Cebu Air (20% to P23.53 billion); and real estate and hotel business through Robinsons Land Corp. (19% to P7.98 billion).

On the other hand, its petrochemicals group, represented by Petrochemicals Corp. and JG Summit Olefins Corp., posted a 16% decline to P9.01 billion due to lower selling prices and volumes sold during the period.

“The transformation program being undertaken by URC seems to be paying off as it was able to register a 6.6% net income growth to P5.13 billion during the first half on the back of the double-digit growth in its coffee business,” Mr. Limlingan said.

To recall, URC earlier implemented initiatives to improve its coffee business in the country, which had been a negative contributor to earnings in previous years. Among these initiatives include the launch of its three new instant coffee products last January to address gaps in the market.

“From our perspective, [JG Summit] could sustain its strong financial performance for the rest of the year. Its macroeconomic environment provides advantages: the decelerating inflation gives boost to food segment URC; the declining oil prices could also help its air transportation segment [Cebu Air]; [and] finally, the loosening monetary policy could provide boost its property arm [Robinsons Land],” Philstocks’ Mr. Tantiangco said.

Despite improving fundamentals, Mr. Tantiangco noted that JG Summit may be “moving sideways as the overall market picture remains clouded with global economic slowdown fears.”

Mr. Tantiangco set the stock’s support at P63 and resistance at P66.6.

“In the medium to long run, however, its share price could rally back to the P70 [per share] level so long as it would be able to maintain its strong fundamentals,” he added.

For Regina Capital’s Mr. Limlingan, support and resistance levels are pegged at P62.8 and P65 per share, respectively. — Lourdes O. Pilar

Autokid drives businesses forward with light-duty trucks

MORE AND MORE cities in the country — be it in Metro Manila or in nearby and faraway provinces — are being developed in terms of infrastructure and establishment. This results in increasing demands by businesses when it comes to moving goods and cargo.

This is where light-duty trucks come in. With their mobility and efficiency, light-duty trucks help businesses grow and improve.

Since launching its partnership with Dongfeng Automotive Co., Ltd. (DFAC) and Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle Co., Ltd. (DFCV) in June, Autokid now carries a whole new lineup of light-duty trucks called the Captain Series.

Aside from the promise of excellent mobility and transport efficiency, the Dongfeng Captain line of trucks also provide excellent features like modern cabins, smart safety and driving features, and efficient Euro IV engines — with some key variants powered by Cummins technology.

There are nine types of light-duty trucks under the series that can cater to various types of businesses. Dropsides, aluminum vans, mini-dumps and boom trucks are options for contractors and property developers, as well as other businesses with construction needs. The refrigerated van and FB type truck, meanwhile, serve small enterprises in food or in retail. Double cabin trucks and other special purpose vehicles (SPVs) can be employed by businessmen with specific transportation needs.

To further drive businesses forward and closer to success, Autokid continues with after-sales services through its truck parts arm, Truckstop, and repair center, Autokid Service Care.

Truckstop carries the widest selection of brand new and original spare truck parts; while Autokid Service Care provides truck repair services for all trucks brands, regardless of where they were bought. Autokid Service Care has over 200 service bays spread across their locations in Dagupan, Subic, Sta. Rita Bulacan, Quezon Avenue, Lipa, Batangas, and Albay.

To know more about Autokid Truck Solutions line of products and services, visit https://www.autokid.com.ph. Also read about different trucking solutions at https://www.autokid.com.ph/blog.

Watsons promo gives chance to win 100,000 bonus points

RECENT EXTREME weather conditions and regular pollution may stress someone out, something health and beauty retailer Watsons Philippines is attempting to address with its ongoing health and wellness promotion which provides discounts for select brands and products until September.

Among the brands participating in the “Keep Yourself Protected With Watsons” promotion are skincare brands like Olay, Snailwhite, Head & Shoulders, and Celeteque, and pharmaceutical brands like Neozep and Strepsils.

Watsons Card members can get additional discounts on top of existing discounts and will receive free personal accident insurance. Members also have a chance to be one of the winners of up to P1 million worth of Watsons shopping points for every P500 single-receipt purchase of any participating products.

There will be 24 winners of 5,000 bonus points; 18 winners of 10,000 bonus points; 10 winners of 20,000 bonus points; six winners of 50,000 bonus points; and two winners of 100,000 bonus points, which can be used to shop at Watsons.

For more information on other Watsons products and services, visit www.watsons.com.ph Follow its Facebook page facebook.com/WatsonsPH/ and Instagram @watsonsph.

Yields on gov’t securities end flat as US curve inverts

YIELDS ON government debt papers traded at the secondary market were flat last Friday amid a slew of developments, most notably the inversion of the US Treasury yield curve, driving investors towards safe-haven assets.

Week on week, government securities’ (GS) yields were up by a mere 0.4 basis point (bp), according to the PHP Bloomberg Valuation Service (BVAL) Reference Rates as of Aug. 16 published on the Philippine Dealing System’s website.

At the secondary market on Friday, at the short end of the curve, the 182- and 364-day Treasury bills (T-bill) went down by 9.1 bps and 0.6 bp to 3.512% and 3.713%, respectively. The movement of the 91-day debt paper was muted with a 0.1 bp climb, yielding 3.376%.

At the belly, yields on the four-, five-, and seven-year Treasury bonds (T-bond) fell by 2.8 bps, 5 bps, and 4.9 bps to 4.035%, 4.109%, and 4.254%. Meanwhile, rates of the two- and three-year T-bonds inched up by 3.3 bps (3.89%) and 0.2 bp (3.962%), respectively.

At the long end, the 10-year T-bond saw its yield go up by 2.8 bps to 4.4%. Yields on the 20- and 25-year tenors also went up by 10.4 bps each to fetch 4.804% and 4.801%, respectively.

“External factors that supported the easing of some local interest rate benchmarks, especially the short-term tenors, include the inversion of US interest rate yield curve for the first time since 2007 and also the inversion of the yield curve in the UK (first time since 2008) and in other developed countries amid concerns over slower global economic growth/outlook,” said Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. (RCBC) economist Michael L. Ricafort.

Meanwhile, “[m]arket expectations of another 0.25-bp cut in the local policy rates and a possible cut in reserve requirement ratio (RRR) of banks of about 100 bps by September at the earliest, and the sustained decline in inflation especially in the coming months of 2019 partly supported the easing of most shorter-term local interest rate benchmarks recently,” Mr. Ricafort added.

ING Bank N.V.-Manila senior economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa attributed last week’s bond movements mostly to profit-taking. “Bond markets finally decided to take profit from the recent rally with market players opting to sit on cash with concerns about the escalation in trade war and the ill effects of global growth,” he said.

“Foreign investors may have started the selling with local players following suit,” he added.

Yields on the 10-year US Treasuries were below that of the US two-year debt papers last Thursday for the first time since 2007 or just before the global recession.

Likewise, the 30-year US Treasury bond yield slumped below 2% for the first time.

This resulted in an inverted yield curve, which happens when shorter-term interest rates are higher than longer-term bond yields. As investors usually expect to get paid a higher rate of return in longer-dated debt papers, an inverted yield curve usually signals an approaching economic recession.

US-China tensions also escalated after Washington accused Beijing of being a “currency manipulator” for the first time since 1994.

Prior to this, China fixed its exchange rate at a decade-low seven yuan-to-a-dollar, which was in response to US President Donald J. Trump’s plan to impose an additional 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion worth of Chinese imports by Sept. 1.

However, last week, Mr. Trump delayed the implementation of the 10% tariffs to Dec. 15 from next month.

Back home, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Benjamin E. Diokno hinted on another 25-bp cut in benchmark interest rates as early as the Monetary Board’s Sept. 26 policy meeting.

The BSP chief said another cut in banks’ RRR could also take place next month, possibly in one of the weekly meetings of the policy-setting Monetary Board.

Moving forward, both analysts see external factors swaying the local fixed income market.

“Broad risk-off tone continues to persist despite expectations for further easing from the BSP and trading will likely take its cue from the global sentiment more than local developments,” ING’s Mr. Mapa said.

For RCBC’s Mr. Ricafort: “[L]ocal interest rate benchmarks could still continue to ease or at the very least remain at relatively low levels (among the lowest in 2-3 years) for the coming week, as some global fund managers search for higher interest rate returns/yields in emerging markets with relatively better economic and credit fundamentals such as the Philippines.” — MWCD

How PSEi member stocks performed — August 16, 2019

Here’s a quick glance at how PSEi stocks fared on Friday, August 16, 2019.

 

Lex Talionis: in a time of a shooting war

President Rodrigo Duterte’s order to the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) to give the New People’s Army (NPA) tit for tat” is notable on several levels. It is perhaps the first time in the Philippines since American General Jacob Smith and Japanese Geneneral Masaharu Homma were here, that a commander-in-chief or a military commander has ordered “tit for tat,” “Do it to them also,” and “give them what they deserve” against the enemy. Whatever way this is interpreted and implemented by the military, and counter-attacked by the NPA, the result can only be an unfortunate further escalation of the armed conflict and (counter-)insurgency-related killings.

It actually conjurs something the President wants to avoid per his last State of the Nation Address, although said in a different context: “A shooting war is grief and misery multiplier. War leaves widows and orphans in its wake. I am not ready or inclined to accept the occurrence of more destruction, more widows and more orphans, should war, even on a limited scale, break out.” The thing is, the NPA probably feels the same way as he did when he also said — but again in a different context — “It is also exasperating that there are times when I think that perhaps it is blood that we need to cleanse and rinse away the dirt and the muck that stick to the flesh like leeches.”

The sad reality is that both sides of our shooting war already made a decision in late 2018 to primarily pursue such a kind of a war. The Duterte administration has decided on what it calls a “paradigm shift,” embodied in Executive Order No. 70, not to negotiate with the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP)-NPA-National Democratic Front of the Philippines (NDF) top leadership but to instead defeat or neutralize it politically and militarily at sub-national levels — ironically, based on the security establishment’s assessment of the CPP-NPA-NDF’s strategy with the peace negotiations “not to pursue real peace but to meet their objective of overthrowing the legitimate government.”

Given what it considers to be the “US-Duterte fascist regime,” the CPP-NPA-NDF strategy under his remaining term is to reprise the largely successful CPP-NPA-NDF armed resistance against the “US-Marcos dictatorship.” CPP founder and NDF Chief Political Consultant Jose Ma. Sison said last April: “There can be no genuine peace negotiations… while Duterte remains in power… It is obvious to the Filipino people and their revolutionary forces that they have no choice but to concentrate on intensifying the people’s war for a people’s democratic revolution.” So, a shooting war it will be for at least three more years. But even war has its limits — believe it or not — though easier said than done.

President Duterte appears to recognize this, even with his order to the AFP to give the NPA “tit for tat.” This is reflected in his statement to the NPA referring to its apparent torture and summary execution of four captured police intelligence operatives on July 18 in Ayungon, Negros Oriental, which has become his casus belli (an event justifying war): “You have gone too far… You cannot do it unrestrained, unbridled, uncontrolled… I will not allow it.” Neither should he allow, much less order, it to be done by his security forces. And with more reason for any legitimate government with professional military and police forces. The President seems to have caught himself in time by also saying “Maybe we wanted [to] as a revenge. But since we are government and you have to have morals to prop us up. Otherwise, we are no different from the barbarians like them.”

PCOO.GOV.PH

Well, President Duterte is not a “barbarian” but a fratman (some say, the real barbarians), a member of Lex Talionis Fraternitas, Inc. Sodalitas Ducum Futurorum of the San Beda College of Law (today’s politically correct law school). It is uncanny because Lex Talionis happens to be “the law of retaliation” developed in early Babylonian law, particularly the Code of King Hamurabbi (1792-1750 B.C.), and present in both biblical and early Roman law that punishment should resemble the offense committed in kind and degree. It is referred to in the Bible’s Old Testament three times as “An eye for an eye, and a tooth for a tooth,” but is repudiated by Jesus in the New Testament. It is so obviously morally wrong because you cannot right a wrong by committing another wrong. It is also morally and legally wrong to follow illegal orders — like an order to torture and summarily execute (extra-judicially kill, or “salvage”) captured enemy combatants. There is an arguable right for soldiers or even rebels to refuse to obey any illegal military orders of their commanders.

There is no place for Lex Talionis or “tit for tat” in the modern world. What we already have instead is international humanitarian law (IHL) or the law of armed conflict or war, the core of which is the 1949 Geneva Conventions, the 70th anniversary of which we commemorated on Aug. 12. The President is aware of this, as shown when he referred again to the NPA: “They are not fighting a conventional war. They are not obeying the Geneva Convention.” While the NPA is not fighting a conventional but instead a guerrilla war, it is still bound by IHL, particularly on non-international armed conflict, just like the AFP is in its counter-guerrilla war. As it is, both sides are on record to say they adhere to IHL and human rights in general and to the Geneva Conventions in particular. Let your continuing shooting war then be also a contest, if you will, in adherence in both word and deed, in both letter and spirit, to the Geneva Conventions, in the best interests of the civilian population caught in your crossfire AND of your respective causes.

Stated otherwise, real adherence to IHL serves not only civilian protection but also enhances your military discipline and popular support. Your shooting war is ultimately not about body count but rather about winning hearts and minds. Take to heart and mind this first among The Soldier’s Rules: “Be a disciplined soldier. Disobedience of the laws of war dishonors your army and yourself, and causes unnecessary suffering; far from weakening the enemy’s will to fight, it often strengthens it.” Barbaric, including “tit for tat,” behavior in war is counter-productive and self-defeating.

On the other hand, the renowned IHL scholar Hans-Peter Gasser teaches us: “… humanity in time of war… respect for IHL helps lay the foundations on which a peaceful settlement can be built… The chances for a lasting peace are much better if a feeling of mutual trust can be maintained between the belligerents during war. By respecting the basic rights and dignity of [fellow humans], the belligerents help maintain that trust… IHL helps pave the road to peace.” Ironic though it may seem, following the rules of war is one of the paths to peace.

 

Soliman M. Santos, Jr. is a Judge of the Regional Trial Court (RTC) of Naga City, Camarines Sur. He is a long-time human rights and IHL lawyer; legislative consultant and legal scholar; peace advocate, researcher and writer, whose initial engagement with the peace process was with the first GRP-NDF nationwide ceasefire in 1986, particularly in his home region of Bicol, a long-time rural hotbed of the communist-led insurgency. He is the author of a number of books on Philippine peace processes, including his latest How do you solve a problem like the GPH-NDFP peace process? (Siem Reap, Cambodia: The Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies, 2016).

An idea for Isko: urban ecozones

Manila Mayor Isko Moreno has been rightly hailed for reclaiming public space by removing illegal vendors plying their trade by occupying streets and sidewalks. However, some critics have pointed out that these vendors are merely trying to earn a living and would suffer tremendously if they were removed or relocated.

It need not be an either-or situation — either the public gets back the spaces it needs or the vendors go hungry. The truth of the matter is that many of these illegal vendors are engaged in a form of disguised underemployed. Since there are few jobs in the city offering formal wages and benefits, they have to make their own jobs by being an informal service worker or entrepreneur. Hence, be an illegal vendor.

Illegal vendors are what constitute most of the jobs in our service-led economy. Although technically they have “jobs,” they live below the poverty line or are skirting its edge. They don’t enjoy secure regular wages and formal benefits like Social Security. Incomes are tenuous and unstable.

This type of worker or self-employed won’t go away. Not until there are enough good jobs where they can enjoy regular wages. In truth, “Endo” workers are in a better place than they are because “endo” workers still get benefits and wages, although only up to six months.

We can expect the number of these illegal service workers or unemployed to increase, perhaps adding to the population in congested slums and crime-infested areas. Why? Because manufacturing in the Philippines is weak, constituting only about 20% of the GDP, having contracted from 24% in another era. Manufacturing is where the good paying jobs are. Not surprising because productivity (and hence pay) in manufacturing is higher than in services in general. While manufacturing enjoyed a brief renaissance under former President Aquino, it’s faltering under President Duterte, for a variety of reasons, from the threats against “endo” to the uncertain tax regime, which is affecting Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA) manufacturers.

The biggest culprit of all, however, is our high entry level or minimum wages (which is close to average wages) and unreasonable and restrictive labor security regulations (“permanency” after a mere six months). We have driven away labor-intensive industries like garments and light manufacturing to other countries such as Vietnam when our unemployed and underemployed represent a quarter of our labor force. In other words, we have a lot of people idle but investors don’t want to hire them because of government-mandated high entry level wages and labor security regulations. Investors go to Vietnam or Bangladesh instead. This is the essence of the contradiction hampering our industrialization.

Back to Isko. Why not adopt the idea of urban ecozones? The idea, if implemented successfully, will: a.) give jobs to the unemployed and to illegal self-employed, such as illegal vendors; b.) raise the city’s tax base; and c.) be a magnet for more investments in the city. In other words, win, win, win.

CRECENCIO I. CRUZ

Start by designating a space within Manila as an urban industrial ecozone, maybe in Tondo. Build the necessary infrastructure for mini-factories to function:, i.e. streets, lights, water. Maybe even build the light factory buildings and investors could just bring in the light machines (like sewing machines) to start operating but charge them rent. Maybe even give them a tax break from city taxes. But here’s the key: to really attract labor-intensive industries, give them some relief from the high minimum wages with some form of wage subsidy. Mayor Isko already got the city to give Manila college students P1,000 monthly. Why not extend the concept to wage workers? After all, wage workers are also learning on the job. The public benefit is even larger: This keeps idle people off the streets, gives workers dignity, and will make investors flock to Manila as a place to put up factories and do business. In other words, it’s a form of CCT or the Conditional Cash Transfer program, only this time, the subsidy is not to the poor to send their children to school, but to the unemployed and underemployed to give them a job so they can support a family.

Wage subsidy is the key because labor-intensive manufacturing won’t thrive given the country’s high nominal minimum wages. (No thanks to noisy labor unions who comprise a mere 3% of the labor force and their grandstanding populist political patrons). The city government could even further improve workers’ welfare by encouraging investors to import and sell cheap rice directly to the wage workers, making use of the recent rice importation liberalization law .

The subsidy could be phased out in time when workers’ productivity has increased, and the capitalists can now shoulder the added wages. Manila can finance this program from a loan from the World Bank or an increase in property taxes.

In order to make factories in the urban economic zone even more competitive, the city government, together with the National Housing Authority, can provide dormitories or public housing so that workers don’t waste money and time commuting to work.

If urban ecozones work, then there’s no more need to relocate squatters to far off areas in Rizal or Cavite where they don’t stay because of a lack of livelihood. Light manufacturing and cottage industries will see a renaissance in Manila, helping to end its blight and pockets of poverty and hopelessness.

Cleaning the city and reclaiming public spaces is a good first step for Mayor Isko to revive the glory of Manila. However, without an economic base, its revival will not be sustainable. Economic vitality can’t be built on tourism alone or on gambling revenues. Only labor-intensive light manufacturing and cottage industries can absorb the hundreds of thousands of unskilled and semi-skilled people leaving the countryside for the city.

Mayor Isko could be the unDuterte. President Duterte built his national reputation by making Davao attractive to investors when he reduced crime and insurgency, albeit allegedly by violating human rights. On the other hand, Mayor Isko, who himself came from the slums, could make Manila attractive to investors with economically innovative and socially progressive policies. If he does so, politically, the sky’s the limit for Mayor Isko.

 

Calixto V. Chikiamco is a board director of the Institute for Development and Econometric Analysis.

idea.introspective@gmail.com

www.idea.org.ph

Making Philippine tourism compete at higher levels

Last week, the Department of Tourism (DoT) announced that foreign arrivals breached the 4.1 million mark in the first semester of the year, an 11.43% increase from last year. It expressed confidence that it would meet its whole year target of 8.2 million visitors.

Without taking away from the success of the DoT, we should also look at how our arrival performance compares with that of our neighbors. Doing so will provide context on how well we are doing and a sense of how big the market truly is.

Let us not even consider the region’s big three — Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore, whose tourism programs are highly developed. They play in the 20 million to 40 million visitor range.

Within our neighborhood are Vietnam and Indonesia since we all share the same infrastructure challenges, albeit to varying degrees. For this year, Vietnam is working towards welcoming 18 million visitors, a 15% increase from its record last year. Indonesia is targeting 20 million visitors, but this is unlikely to be attained since it failed to reach its targets for two years in a row. Analysts believe that 18 million is a more realistic number for them.

The Philippines is 10 million visitors short in comparison. This only means we must grow between 20 to 30% annually to narrow the gap.

For the longest time, infrastructure bottlenecks impeded the development of our tourism industry. The lack of airports and access roads to connect ports to tourist destinations made it too difficult, if not too expensive, to navigate our islands.

The good news is that the infrastructure gap is slowly being filled. In the last three years, 962 kilometers of new roads were built to connect ports to tourism destinations while two brand new international airports were inaugurated in Mactan and Panglao. On top of this, 27 domestic airports were either expanded, renovated, or night rated.

The effects were immediate. Forty new flights have been added to connect Mactan, Panglao, Palawan, Davao, and Clark, directly to cities like Tokyo, Dubai, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Kuala Lumpur, Macau, Singapore, Seoul, and Taipei, among others. This translates to more than 1.6 million inbound seats.

The route development team of the DoT wants to get Australian and New Zealand carriers to call on Philippine airports. They represent a huge, high spending market. Fifth freedom rights (the right to carry passengers from Australia to the Philippines and onwards to a third country) have been awarded to Australian carriers as an incentive.

By next year, a second terminal in Clark and the new Bicol International Airport will come online. This will be accompanied by some 2,250 kilometers of new tourism oriented roads across the country between 2020 to 2022.

With the many developments going on, infrastructure bottlenecks will become less of an issue in the years to come. No doubt, our arrival numbers will improve as a result of it. In fact, to aspire for 10 to 15% growth is too easy. It is already a given as new infrastructure will naturally foster the growth. The DoT needs to stretch its targets.

Growth must accelerate to double the usual pace to play in the same league as Vietnam and Indonesia within a decade. It is possible. But it would require a rethinking our market positioning, marketing strategy, and size of promotional investment.

CULTURAL TOURISM
Without doubt, the “It’s More Fun in the Philippines” campaign put us on the global tourism map. I chalk up its success to four reasons. The first is that the slogan itself was also the brand promise and more often than not, that promise was met. Second, it was a marketing campaign that stood out for its vigor, color and energy. It was a stark departure from the ambiguous campaigns used by our neighbors (eg. Wonderful Indonesia or Amazing Thailand). Third, the Filipino people adopted it as their own and used it in their social media feeds with great frequency. Fourth, promotional budgets were well spent with ads appearing on international cable channels, billboards in key cities, and banners on buses and subway tubes.

The “It’s More Fun in the Philippines” campaign gave us a good kick start. It took us from 4.27 million visitors in 2012 to where we are today. That’s an annualized growth rate of 10%.

But times have changed and so must our marketing campaign. We must now work on distinguishing the Philippines (as a tourism product) from the rest of the region. We must bring to light how the Philippine experience is different from the rest. The prospect of unique experiences is what will compel travellers to choose the Philippines over the likes of Vietnam and Indonesia.

One might argue that the Philippines has the best beaches in region, if not the entire planet. Others may say that the Philippines is fairly competitive in adventure, night life, and eco-tourism. Aren’t these selling points sufficient?

The reality is Nai Harn beach in Thailand and Nusa Pedida beach in Indonesia rate higher than Boracay and Palawan on Trip Advisor. My point is, our beaches, gorgeous as they are, are not the only game in town. Other destinations, like Bali, offers a more holistic product that includes an Indo-Hindu experience on top of beautiful beaches. Hoi An in Vietnam showcases its Kinh, Bach Viet, Han Chinese and French heritage alongside the beaches of Da Nang.

The competition is intense among the tourism products in the region. We must step-up our game if we are to get our fair market share. This is where cultural tourism comes in.

Cultural tourism pertains to a traveler’s engagement with a country’s culture, specifically the lifestyle of its people, its history, its art, food, architecture, religion and other elements that shape its way of life.

I count cultural tourism to be the most powerful sub-category in the tourism spectrum as it provides context to the experiences, sights and sounds of a destination. It is what makes a destination unique, interesting, and remarkable.

The Philippines is unique in that it is the only predominantly Catholic country in the region with a strong Spanish heritage. Our Hispano-Malay culture, with all the frills that come with it, is what makes us different. Unfortunately, this facet of our culture has not been exploited in the way it should on a marketing perspective.

Jose D. Aspiras got it right when he used the arts as his main marketing tool when he was tourism minister back in 1973 to 1986. I still recall how the Madrigal Singers, the Bayanihan Dancers, Pitoy Moreno and his fashions, as well as Nora Daza and Glenda Barretto and their cookeries were made ambassadors of Philippine culture.

The move served three purposes. Not only did it paint a colorful, exotic, and romantic picture of Filipino life to the world, it made the Philippines stand out as a rich cultural destination. More importantly, it gave the Filipino himself a sense of identity. It fostered national pride.

Of course, the use of cultural ambassadors is no longer applicable these days what with the advent of the internet. Still, the principle remains the same. The different facets of our culture should be the main context in which we sell our beaches and other tourist spots. Again, beautiful beaches, without cultural context, are a dime a dozen.

We need to compete at a higher level since our neighbors have all stepped up their game. Not to do so will leave us further behind. Cultural tourism will give us the legs to run the race.

 

Andrew J. Masigan is an economist.

Mandating public ownership

Last week Commissioner Ephyro Luis B. Amatong announced that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is now looking at mandating a 20-25% Minimum Public Offering (MPO) range for listed companies, against the November 2017 order for these public companies to hit 15% MPO within three years, then another two years for the final 20% MPO.

It is not three years yet from 2017, and many listed companies have not even climbed up to the 15% intermediate level before settling to 20% MPO. No problem, Mr. Amatong said. “We don’t care how you do it, as long as within five years (until 2024) you’ll have 25%,” he insisted (BusinessWorld, Aug. 13, 2019). There are 68 listed firms to be affected by the increased MPO requirement, with 39 having a public float of less than 15%. Four of the 30 Philippine Stock Exchange Inc. (PSEi) member firms currently have a public float of less than 25%, namely: Aboitiz Power Corp. with 19.15%; Globe Telecom, Inc. with 21.65%; Manila Electric Co. with 20.98%; and San Miguel Corp. with 15.94% (Ibid.).

“The ASEAN standard is 25%… and there’s initial feedback since some companies in their initial offering (IPO) actually go straight to 40%,” Mr. Amatong said to reporters. Listed firms here however, still adhere to the 10% MPO requirement, which has been in place since 2011.

Surely not meant to taunt the announced public float requirement increase but only coincidentally, the next day billionaire Andrew Tan’s casino business, Travellers International Hotel Group Inc. (Travellers), announced on ABS-CBN News that it was voluntarily delisting from the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) in October. Travellers, which operates Resorts World Manila (RWM), will hold a tender offer for up to 1.58 billion shares, after which non-public shareholders will hold at least 90% of the total listed and outstanding common shares. Then they will no longer be covered by the SEC order to have 25% public retail investors have a say in their business.

And that is precisely the explanation Travellers gave for the voluntary delisting. “The conversion from a public entity into a private company will allow the company to timely address evolving market demands and rapidly changing customer needs without compromising its business strategies to competition,” Travellers told the stock exchange. Earlier, they reported a 52% drop in net income in the quarter ending June to P600.3 million, as gross expenses rose 89% to P7.37 billion during the same period. Kevin Tan, CEO of holding company Alliance Global, said net income in the January to June period was flat at P12.5 billion as “cost pressures” to address competition shaved margins (ABS-CBN News Aug. 14, 2019). Alliance Global includes property developer Megaworld Corp., liquor subsidiary Emperador Inc., and fast food restaurants under Golden Arches Development Corp., the exclusive franchise holder of the McDonald’s brand in the country.

It was only in May that the PSE warned another casino operator, Melco Resorts and Entertainment (Philippines) Corp., that it will delist the company unless at least 10% of its stock was sold to the public by June 11, a deadline set after the SEC warning of non-compliance with MPO in December 2018. But like the Resorts World case, the City of Dreams owners MCO (Philippines) Investments Ltd. had wanted to voluntarily delist from the PSE since September 2018 and in fact made a tender offer for up to 1.5 billion outstanding common shares held by the public, representing 27.23% of the outstanding capital stock of the corporation, at a tender offer price of P7.25 per share (The Philippine Star, Sept. 11, 2018).

“The listed status was considered as an important tool allowing Melco to raise funds in the Philippine public market, in order to provide capital for expansion and other business plans. However, Melco’s listed status in recent years has not contributed to its ability to raise funds despite considerable efforts and expenses being incurred to maintain its listed status,” Melco said in an e-mail reply to The Philippine Star. The reason for delisting is similar to the reason Travellers gave for unloading its public shares.

The attempt to make Melco private encountered resistance from some 2.1% public stockholders who spurned the tender offer, and the Melco petition for voluntary delisting of the company collapsed in November. By default, Melco Resorts slid below the required minimum public ownership. Thus the PSE warning in May for Melco to up its MPO to at least the 10% original (2011) requirement, and thence to the 20% November 2017 standard, while waiting for the 25% MPO order just given last week.

If Travellers and Melco argue against the MPO since, in their view, the minority public shareholders could be cumbersome to efficient and productive business management, the involuntary delisting proceedings initiated by the PSE against Calata Corp. (CAL) in July 2017 was meant to protect the public shareholders. It will be recalled that just after its listing in 2012, charges were filed against some individuals in Calata for alleged market manipulation (mb.com.ph, July 26, 2017).

Calata’s public ownership report to the SEC as of Oct. 4, 2017 showed the public as holders of 350.935 million CAL common shares, or 61.531%, according to columnist Emeterio SD Perez (The Manila Times, Oct. 13, 2017). Six directors of Calata owned 219.406 million CAL common shares, or 38.469%. Why were public stockholders never allowed to elect their nominees to the board of any listed company (when) they were portrayed as the controlling stockholders in a number of public ownership reports, Perez asked?

The PSE said it found that Calata had 29 violations of Section 13.1 of the PSE Disclosure Rules and 26 violations under Section 13.2. Under the Scale of Penalties, the fourth and succeeding violations of the PSE Disclosure Rules constitute grounds for delisting. A company that has once been delisted cannot apply for relisting within a period of five years from the time it was delisted. Directors and executive officers of a company that has been delisted are disqualified from becoming directors or executive officers of any company applying for listing within the same period counted from the time the application for delisting was approved.

In the midst of Calata’s damning disclosure and black-out violations (insider trading), listed seafood and aquaculture firm Millennium Global Holdings Inc. (MGHI) bought 2.5 billion new shares issued following Calata’s increase in authorized capital stock, giving MGHI 81% of the stocks and making it majority owner of Calata, which continues to function as a private entity.

So many questions come up from the SEC announcement mandating 25% public ownership of listed firms within five years. First of all, do we have to do what the “big boys” do, and stay abreast of the ASEAN in business and economics? Are we ready for this mandated 25% MPO, when listed firms are delisted involuntarily for non-compliance, and even voluntarily for claimed better ease of doing business? Is the mandated MPO helping business or slowing it down? Is it helping the minority retail investors, whose rights are not attended to, contrary to the motivation of the whole exercise of a mandated MPO giving these retail public investors the equal access to high-level investment opportunities?

Perhaps the economists in government should impose less intervention, and let the market and the economy grow, as it will, in the pull of the unstoppable global market momentum.

 

Amelia H.C. Ylagan is a Doctor of Business Administration from the University of the Philippines.

ahcylagan@yahoo.com

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