WASHINGTON — White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Thursday that China’s “serious commitment” to buy $40 billion to $50 billion worth of US agricultural goods as part of a phase 1 trade deal would depend in part on private companies and market conditions.

Speaking to reporters at the White House, Kudlow said the first phase of a trade deal, revealed last week, may be signed at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum next month in Chile, noting that the figures relating to Chinese purchases were a “considered number.”

When asked if China had guaranteed the purchases, he pointed to other factors that weigh on the total amount.

“The government gives guidance, but a lot of that stuff is done by private companies,” Kudlow said. “So market conditions, you know, prices could fluctuate, weather can move, they’ve had some terrific health scares with swine and so forth… but it is a very serious commitment.”

Kudlow also flagged expected Chinese concessions on non-tariff barriers and standards that have prevented American agricultural goods from reaching Chinese consumers.

The so-called phase 1 deal was unveiled at the White House last week during a visit by China’s Vice Premier Liu He as part of a bid to end a tit-for-tat trade war between Beijing and Washington that has roiled markets and hammered global growth.

US officials said a second phase of negotiations could address thornier issues like forced technology transfer and non-financial services issues.

Kudlow on Thursday reiterated that the issue of forced technology transfers might have to go into a second phase of the trade deal, despite significant cooperation on both sides.

In an interview on CNBC earlier, Kudlow said the first phase of the China trade deal was “for real” and pointed to great progress in talks.

“There’s a lot of momentum, and there’s agreement on both sides,” he said. “This is for real.”

Kudlow said a day had not been set to sign any agreement, and that the pact may be signed at the APEC Forum in Santiago in mid-November, or it may not.

Both US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are slated to attend the forum.

On Wednesday, Trump initially told reporters at the White House that he likely would not sign the agreement until he met with his Chinese counterpart at APEC.

However, later on Wednesday at a news conference alongside Italian President Sergio Mattarella, Trump said: “The agreement — we hope to have it signed some time prior to Chile.” — Reuters

TYSON FOODS INC in February will stop buying US hogs raised with a growth drug banned by China, the company said on Thursday, as global meat suppliers seek an edge in boosting sales to Chinese buyers facing a huge pork shortage due to an outbreak of a fatal pig disease.

The halt in the use of the drug, ractopamine, reflects a change in strategy for Tyson, company watchers say. The company previously sought to profit by filling holes in US supplies that were left when industry rivals like Smithfield Foods and JBS USA sent American pork to China.

Now, Tyson, Smithfield and JBS — the top three US pork processors — are vying for business in China, the world’s biggest pork consumer, where an outbreak of African swine fever has devastated the hog herd, pushed pork prices to record highs and sent imports rocketing. Though not harmful to humans, the disease is deadly to pigs, with no vaccine available.

But US companies have to cope with a significant handicap compared to suppliers based elsewhere. Beijing has imposed tariffs on imports of US pork due to the long-running trade war between the world’s two biggest economies.

“Of course it’s all to pave the way to get ready to start shipping very large amounts of pork to China,” said Dennis Smith, a commodity broker for Archer Financial Services in Chicago.

Tyson, the biggest US meat producer, is “the last shoe to drop,” said Smith, who said he learned of the policy change from a farmer. The company already generates almost $1 billion in pork export sales annually.

“We believe the move to prohibit ractopamine use will allow Tyson Fresh Meats and the farmers who supply us to compete more effectively for export opportunities in even more countries,” Steve Stouffer, president of Tyson Fresh Meats, said in a statement.

China’s pork imports climbed 76% in September from a year earlier with African swine fever having decimated its domestic hog herd, according to Chinese government data.

The disease surfaced more than a year ago in China — the first time it had been detected in Asia — and has since spread to more than 50 countries, according to the World Organization of Animal Health, including those accounting for 75% of global pork production.

Chinese authorities blocked the use of ractopamine in livestock in 2002 over health concerns, and the European Union also prohibits the drug. The United States and other countries say it can be safely used to add lean muscle to pigs.

Tyson previously offered a small amount of ractopamine-free pork to export customers by working with farmers who raise hogs without the feed additive. Those programs “no longer adequately meet growing global demand,” Tyson said.

Tyson’s share price was down 1.3 percent at $80.80 in Thursday morning trade.

JBS USA, owned by Brazil’s JBS SA, said this month it would remove ractopamine from its hog supply chain.

Smithfield, owned by China’s WH Group, raises pigs on company-owned and contract farms without the drug, but still processes pigs from other farmers who use ractopamine.

Elanco Animal Health manufactures a ractopamine feed ingredient under the brand name ‘Paylean.’

“We’re disappointed in any decision that would take safe, proven technology out of the hands of farmers,” Elanco spokeswoman Keri McGrath said in a statement Thursday. — Reuters