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Lack of clarity on corporate tax reform seen dampening foreign direct investments — HSBC

FOREIGN direct investments (FDI) in the Philippines will be dampened in 2020 by investors awaiting the final form of the corporate income tax law, an HSBC analyst said.

“We currently expect FDI to continue to be slow in 2020, similar to the level in 2019, unless we see some clarity,” Cheuk Wan Fan, chief market strategist for Asia at HSBC told reporters at a briefing held in Taguig City.

According to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), FDI net inflows slipped on a year-on-year basis for a seventh straight month in September to $566 million, down 2.9% from a year earlier. It was 36.05% higher month-on-month.

Ms. Fan said the FDI environment has room for further development while the direction of corporate income taxes remains unresolved.

“[The] Philippines has the highest corporate tax rate within the region. So foreign investment has been waiting for clarity about corporate tax reform. That’s why they are still holding a wait-and-see attitude,” she said.

Representative Jose Ma. Clemente S. Salceda of Albay, who is also the Chairman of the House Committee on Ways and Means, has said he considers it an urgent matter to legislation that will become the Corporate Income Tax and Incentives Rationalization Act, or CITIRA.

The CITIRA bill, which was approved at the House of Representatives in September, calls for the gradual decrease of corporate income tax rates from the current 30% to 20%. philippine rates are one of the highest among major Asian economies.

CITIRA will also streamline fiscal incentives to become more time-bound and performance-based.

“Ang pinaka-risk para sa amin kung ang CITIRA tumagal sa Senado. Kasi napakalaki na ng epekto sa growth natin sa investments (The biggest risk is for CITIRA to take too much time in the Senate… it will have a major impact on investments),” he told reporters at a media briefing of in Pasig.

Mr. Salcedo noted that the bill has been pending at the Senate since October.

“So ‘pag yan tumagal diyan, maraming naka-hold na investment (so if it takes longer, a lot of investments will remain on hold,” he said.

BSP Governor Benjamin E. Diokno said the lack of finality with CITIRA may have dented FDI flows.

“During the first years of (President Rodrigo R.) Duterte, FDI was around $10 billion… Last year nag-slowdown ‘yan (it slowed down). I think we can attribute that to the CITIRA uncertainty…,” Mr. Diokno said at the briefing.

Trade Secretary Ramon M. Lopez noted that the transition period for old incentive schemes and new investment incentives continue to be contentious.

While the Department of Finance backs a two to five-year transition period for the implementation of the bill, the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) supports a five to seven-year transition period in general and a seven to 10-year transition for firms with over 3,000 employees. — Luz Wendy T. Noble

Japan trade deal failed to benefit PHL machinery

PIDS

THE Japan Philippines Economic Partnership Agreement (JPEPA) negatively impacted machinery and mechanical exports even as it benefited Philippine exports overall, according to a study from the Philippine Institute of Development Studies.

The study — JPEPA, a decade after: Evaluating the effects in Philippine exports using the Synthetic Control Method — weighed the advantages and disadvantages of Philippine participation in its first bilateral free trade agreement (FTA).

The study compared Philippine exports to Japan to hypothetical exports if the FTA had not been implemented.

“The results generally suggest that the agreement between Japan and the Philippines benefited the aggregate exports to Japan,” the report said.

Food manufacturing, minerals, chemicals, and wood saw immediate growth. The study, however, found that not all sectors immediately saw improvements, such as agricultural products, plastics and rubber, textiles, and electrical machinery.

The partnership had a negative impact on Philippine machinery and mechanical appliances exports to Japan, and the study recommended identification of the causes behind the decline.

The report found that tariffs are not the sole determinant of the success of Philippine exports to Japan, identifying a highly protected Japanese market and domestic issues such as high shipping, labor, and power costs as possible problems.

“It is recommended that the Philippines focus more on the non-tariff barriers to the Japanese market using the mechanisms available in JPEPA.” — Jenina P. Ibañez

China must cancel new coal plants to achieve climate goals

SHANGHAI — China must end the construction of all new coal-fired power plants in order to meet long-term climate goals in the most economically feasible manner, according to a study co-authored by a government-backed research institute.

China’s energy strategy over the next decade is under close scrutiny as it aims to bring climate warming carbon emissions to a peak by 2030 and fulfill a pledge made as part of the 2015 Paris agreement.

But with economic growth at its slowest pace in nearly 30 years, Beijing has continued to approve new coal-fired plants, raising fears the world’s biggest producer of greenhouse gas is backtracking on its commitments.

Beijing is capable of phasing out coal to help meet a global target to keep temperature rises to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2050, but only if it embarks on a “structured and sustainable” closure strategy to minimize the economic impact, according to the study by Chinese government researchers and the University of Maryland Center for Global Sustainability published on Monday.

The report, which evaluated more than 1,000 existing coal-fired power plants, said China must first end new construction and then rapidly close older and inefficient plants. As much as 112 gigawatts (GW) does not meet environmental standards and could be shut down immediately, it said.

China currently has over 1,000 GW of coal-fired power, accounting for about 60% of the country’s total installed generation capacity.

“Well-designed policies can help lower the cost of coal-power deep decarbonization,” said Jiang Kejun, research professor with the Chinese government-backed Energy Research Institute, one of the report’s authors.

China should also change the role of coal-fired power in its energy system. By reducing the total operating hours of each plant, China could make coal-fired power a “peak load” supplier during periods of high electricity consumption, rather than the main “baseload” power source.

Beijing promised last year to show the “highest possible ambition” when drawing up new climate pledges for the coming decade, but it has built 42.9 GW of new coal-fired power capacity since the start of 2018, with another 121 GW under construction.

According to a research institute run by the State Grid Corp., China will still need 1,250 GW to 1,400 GW of coal-fired power over the long term to guarantee stable electricity supplies. — Reuters

PHL, France discuss expanding agricultural cooperation

THE Philippines and France have met to discuss programs to improve agricultural cooperation and trade, the Department of Agriculture (DA) said.

In a statement, the DA said that Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar met with French Ambassador Nicolas Galey on Monday.

“The two countries will continue to implement the Administrative Arrangement on Agricultural Cooperation, particularly in terms of capacity building for cooperatives, dairy, food safety, and intellectual property,” DA said.

The agreement aims to consolidate relations between France’s Ministry of Agriculture and Food and the Philippines’ DA through stronger agricultural and technical cooperation in selected sectors and areas of common interest.

Mr. Dar noted his interest in France’s Clark-Rungis Wholesale Food Market as a possible model for attracting investment in agriculture.

The wholesale fresh-food market supplies Paris and is considered the largest wholesale food market in the world, with branches in Moscow, Dubai, and Kazakhstan. The market is operated and managed by French firm SEMMARIS.

In 2017, the Bases Conversion and Development Authority (BCDA) announced a partnership with SEMMARIS and Metro Pacific Investments Corp. (MPIC) to conduct a feasibility study on the development of an international food market in New Clark City in Tarlac.

Mr. Galey said that the Philippine has great potential to meet the demands of French consumers. He said that “the importance of agriculture in France can be seen through the Rungis International Market.”

The DA noted that in 2018, agricultural products exported to France amounted to $49.82 million. France’s agricultural exports to the Philippines totaled $132.73 million. — Vincent Mariel P. Galang

Indonesia considers forcing gas producers to sell output to domestic distributors

JAKARTA — Indonesia’s gas producers could be forced to sell a proportion of their output locally to ensure manufacturers can secure cheap supplies after they complained about high prices, according to a plan proposed by the country’s Industry Ministry.

The so-called domestic market obligation (DMO) would require gas producers to sell a portion of their output to local buyers at a set price, making sure local gas distributors have sufficient supplies to keep tariffs low.

The ministry presented the plan to President Joko Widodo at a meeting on Monday, arguing that it would help state-controlled gas utility PT Perusahaan Gas Negara sell gas to industry at a lower price, Industry Minister Agus Gumiwang Kartasasmita told reporters ahead of the meeting.

“We will formulate how big the DMO will be and at what price level, but the point is gas supplied to factories should be priced below $6 per million British thermal unit (mmbtu) if possible,” he said.

Natural gas is currently sold to manufacturers at around $8-$9 per mmbtu, he said.

President Widodo, in his opening speech at the cabinet meeting, said high gas prices were making local manufacturing uncompetitive and urged his cabinet to find out why prices remained elevated.

Indonesia in late 2016 ordered energy companies to cut natural gas prices to $6 mmbtu for the fertilizer, steel and petrochemical industries. However, companies complained last year that the rules have not been fully implemented.

The government is also considering lowering or cutting the $2.2/mmbtu share it receives from gas producing contracts, Widodo said.

“That is something that we need to discuss with the Finance Minister,” he said.

The government is also discussing the possibility of allowing companies to import gas if there are no gas utilities near their factories, Kartasasmita said.

Coordinating Minister Luhut Pandjaitan, who oversees the energy ministry, said President Widodo has given ministers three months to decide on a strategy to lower prices.

Gas producers in Indonesia sold 4,014 billion British thermal units of gas per day (bbtud) domestically and exported 2,090 bbtud of gas between January-September last year.

Indonesia, a net exporter, previously expected to start importing gas this year as demand outpaced production. However, that may be delayed following the discovery of a major new natural gas field last year and lower than expected consumption. — Reuters

SRA to allow sugar imports to replace US sugar

THE Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA) said it approved an Export Replenishment Program that will allow exporters to import the same volume as they shipped out to the US in order to close the domestic sugar supply gap.

“Under this program, exporters of ‘A’ sugar produced in Crop Year 2019-2020 and exported to the United States (to fill the) sugar quota in Quota Year 2019-2020 may import a corresponding volume of sugar that they exported at a ratio of 1:1 (raw equivalent),” the agency said in sugar order no. 4, series of 2019-2020.

The SRA noted that imports should not exceed the exported “A” sugar, to ensure that total import volumes do not exceed total sugar exports for Crop Year 2019-2020 at 142,160 metric tons raw value (MTRV).

If imports are in raw form, these are required to be brought to a domestic refinery before reclassification.

“Imported sugar for replenishment shall be initially classified as “C” or Reserve sugar in their Clearances for Release of Imported Sugar. All sugar imported under this program shall be stored in an SRA-registered warehouse prior to its reclassification to “B”,” the agency said.

The program covers sugar exported to fill the US quota during the current crop year.

As of the fourth week of December, raw sugar production was down 22.42% at 502,714 metric tons (MT), equivalent to 10.054 million 50-kilo bags. Refined sugar production fell 24.15% to 173,876 MT, or 3.477 million 50-kilo bags.

The SRA output target is 2.096 million MT of sugar this crop year.

The millsite price of sugar was down 6.07% at P1,488.18 per 50-kilo bag, while retail prices ranged from P45 to P50 per kilo.

In a separate statement, the Confederation of Sugar Producers (CONFED) said imports will not resolve the problem of high costs for domestic sugar.

Trade Secretary Ramon M. Lopez asked the sugar regulator to allow domestic food processors to import sugar if locally-produced sugar cannot match global sugar prices.

CONFED Spokesperson Raymond V. Montinola said that the government should not pass the burden to reduce sugar prices on farmers. He also noted that farmgate prices are only at an average of P30 per kilo for brown sugar, or P1,500 per 50-kilo bag.

“Prices should be reduced at the retail level and not by the lowly sugar farmer,” Mr. Montinola said.

Former SRA Administrator Bernardo C. Trebol also told the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) and the SRA to not impose the burden on sugar farmers.

“Sugar farmers know only one thing and that is to grow sugarcane. Our industry survived even with the challenges of progressive lands divided into small parcels land yet we make a conscious effort to consolidate these farms into one functional farm although this is easier said than done,” he said. — Vincent Mariel P. Galang

Stocks recover on Duterte’s offer to water firms

STOCKS recovered on Tuesday amid favorable developments in the local scene, and investors shrugging off the December 2019 inflation data, which was the fastest since June 2019.

The 30-member Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) gained 42.83 points or 0.54% to close at 7,840.70, while the broader all shares index climbed 15.02 points or 0.32% to end at 4,648.35.

“The local market made gains today and this is first due to the signing of the 2020 national budget. With the record high budget signed on time compared to last year, fiscal policies are expected to be more helpful this 2020 in fueling economic growth which in turn would boost the market,” Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco, senior research analyst at Philstocks Financial Inc. said in a text message on Tuesday.

Mr. Tantiangco also noted optimism after the government through Presidential Spokesperson Salvador S. Panelo announced on Tuesday its offer to water concessionaires of a new contract that will replace the existing deals that “rip off” consumers. If water concessionaires refuse, Mr. Duterte will order the cancellation of existing contracts and the nationalization of water services.

“Hopes were revived for the water concessionaires after the government announced that it will provide new contracts,” he said, noting that Manila Water Co., Inc. gained 12.29% to end at P10.78 apiece, while companies related to water firms like Ayala Corp., Metro Pacific Investments Corp., and DMCI Holdings, Inc. also increased by 0.11%, 4.01%, and 4.33%, respectively.

PNB Securities, Inc. President Manuel Antonio G. Lisbona said investors shrugged off the December 2019 inflation print of 2.5%, up from previous month’s 1.3%, but down from 5.1% in December 2018, which brought full-year average to 2.5%, well within the government’s target range of 2-4% for 2019.

“Our economist expects inflation to move towards the higher end of the BSP’s target range by the third quarter of the year,” Mr. Lisbona noted.

“In the meantime, the market will still remain range-bound with resistance found at 7,900-8,000. Given local inflation pressures and uncertainty surrounding the effects of the conflict between the US and Iran,” he added.

Back home, sub-sectors were divided. Gainers were led by holding firms, which gained 101.44 points or 1.33% to close at 7,728.51. Industrials gained 76.14 points or 0.79% to end at 9,666.54; and services gained 4.92 points or 0.31% to 1,548.

Meanwhile, mining and oil fell 45.49 points or 0.56% to 8,002.67; financials dropped 4.36 points or 0.23% to 1,830.87; and property declined 6.42 points or 0.15% to 4,116.63.

Stocks that gained outnumbered those that fell, 94 to 85, while 64 issues were unchanged.

Some 2.19 billion issues valued at P6.49 billion switched hands on Tuesday, up from previous session’s 664.04 million issues worth P4.10 billion. Net selling on Tuesday was at P492.57 million, up from the previous session’s net outflows worth P303.30 million. — Vincent Mariel P. Galang

Peso strengthens on inflation, GIR data

THE PESO rose on the back of local data. — BW FILE PHOTO

THE PESO strengthened on faster-than-expected inflation in December and following an all-time high dollar reserve level as of end-2019.

The local unit ended trading at P50.76 per dollar on Tuesday, appreciating by 17 centavos from its P50.93 close on Monday, according to data from the website of the Bankers’ Association of the Philippines.

The peso opened at P50.945 against the greenback. Its weakest showing was at P50.98 while its intraday high was at P50.71 versus the dollar.

Dollars traded rose to $1.627 billion from $1.579 billion in Monday.

Analysts attributed the peso’s strength against the dollar to both local and international developments.

“The peso appreciated following the release of stronger-than-expected Philippine inflation report for December 2019,” an analyst said in an e-mail.

Headline inflation in December quickened to 2.5%, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority. The rise was on the back of seasonal price upticks buoyed by the holiday spendings as well as weather disruptions.

This is the second straight month of pickup after the 1.3% logged in November. It was also higher compared to the 2.1% median estimate in a BusinessWorld poll of 13 economists last week.

The December rate brought the 2019 average to 2.5%, within the central bank’s 2-4% target range for the year.

“Aside from the stronger inflation, the stronger reserve data and the news that Middle East tensions started to fade out also bode well for the peso,” an analyst said in a phone call.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reported on Thursday that gross international reserves hit an all-time high of $87.855 billion as of December, up by 1.89% from the $86.227 billion as of November and by 10.94% from the end-December 2018 level of $79.193 billion.

“The month-on-month increase in the GIR (gross international reserves) level reflects the inflows arising from the BSP’s foreign exchange operations and income from its investments abroad, and the National Government’s net foreign currency deposits,” the BSP said.

For today, the first trader sees the peso moving around the P50.70-50.90 band, while the second trader gave a forecast range of P50.60-50.90 a dollar. — LWTN

Defense and Foreign Policy Outlook:The Administration’s reluctant partner in appeasing China

The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) is the administration’s reluctant partner in its appeasement policy on China. The Philippine military has been very wary of closer Philippine-China economic relations in particular, and on the so-called “pivot to China” in general. The wariness stems from the fact that it has a long and close relationship with United States Armed Forces.

For seven decades, the US armed services and the AFP has been training and consulting each for combined combat and humanitarian operations. These military exercises have provided opportunities for the AFP to enhance its readiness in developing relevant and responsive military forces across the various mission areas and promote cooperation and interoperability between the Philippines and US armed forces. Interoperability in terms of military doctrines and common strategic outlook and mindset has also been developed aside from equipment, intelligence, navigation, and communications.

Consequently, in several instances, the Philippine military has pushed back at President Rodrigo Duterte’s efforts to effect the Philippines’ “separation” from the United States, such as his plans to remove US Special Forces from Mindanao, decrease the number of joint military exercises, and to terminate joint naval patrols between the Philippine and US navies in the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ). In addition, the perceived “comprehensive, strategic cooperation” under the 29 Memorandum of Understanding (MOUs) signed by President Xi Jinping to promote closer cooperation between the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the AFP have not materialized.

WARNING ABOUT CHINA’S GROWING NAVAL PRESENCE
On Aug. 15, 2019, Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana announced the incursion of several Chinese warships into the country’s territorial waters without prior coordination with the AFP. He opined that China was taunting the Philippines because the Chinese warships’ Automatic Identification System (AIS) was switched off and they ignored the radio communications from the AFP units monitoring their passage in Sibutu Straits in Tawi-Tawi. He also maintained that the People’s Liberation Army’s Navy (PLAN) violated an earlier commitment from the Chinese ambassador in Manila that the Philippines will be informed in advance of any movement of Chinese naval vessels in the country’s territorial waters.

A month earlier, Secretary Lorenzana revealed that Chinese warships transited through the Sibutu Straits in four instances at the start of 2019 without informing the Philippines. The Philippines requires foreign navies to seek diplomatic clearance from the Philippine government when they pass through the country’s territorial waters, and that historically, the world’s major navies have observed this protocol — until this incident with the PLAN ships. Consequently, the defense secretary recommended the filing of a diplomatic protest by the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) following the series of suspicious and unauthorized transits of Chinese warships in Philippine waters including the passage of two Chinese survey ships in the country’s EEZ.

Secretary Lorenzana’s strong statement on the unauthorized passage of PLAN ships was triggered by the report of Lieutenant General Cirilto Sobejana, commander of the AFP’s Western Mindanao Command (WestMinCom). General Sobejana reported, during a regular Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) operation in the southern Philippine island of Tawi-Tawi, that four Chinese warships passed through the country’s porous southern backdoor. These Chinese naval vessels were not hostile when the Philippine Air Force (PAF) planes and Philippine Navy (PN) ships approached and observed them. However, the ships’ sailing pattern appeared to be highly suspicious, zigzagging and not sailing straight as civilian ships should do during an innocent passage.

Then AFP Chief-of-Staff, General Benjamin Madrigal, Jr., commented that this series of unauthorized passages of PLAN ships in Sibutu Straits and in other territorial waters of the Philippines is a national security concern that could lead to confrontations between China and the Philippines.

PUSH BACK AGAINST APPEASEMENT?
In the face of the Philippine military’s apprehensions about Chinese actions in the South China Sea, President Duterte said that he would not provoke China into war. He wondered aloud what would happen to the Philippines should war erupt in the South China Sea and whether the US would protect the Philippines. He argued that the more feasible solution was to forge a joint exploration pact with this regional power.

The two clashing views of the Duterte Administration and the defense/military establishment reflect the country’s strategic dilemma on how to deal with China’s maritime expansion in the South China Sea. After almost three years of pursuing a policy of appeasement on China, the Philippines is incrementally shifting to “limited hard balancing” to constrain China’s revisionist agenda. Specifically, this strategy entails building up the Philippine military’s territorial defense capabilities, maintaining its alliance with the US, and forging security partnerships with Japan and Australia. These are manifestations that the Philippines, despite its appeasement on China, is standing up (albeit hesitantly) to the Chinese challenge in the South China Sea.

 

Dr. Renato de Castro is a Trustee and Convenor of the National Security and East Asian Affairs Program, Stratbase ADR Institute.

American TNTs in the Philippines?

The term “TNT” refers to Pinoys in the US who are hiding (tago nang tago) from immigration officials because of their illegal status. This year, TNT may also mean US citizens hiding from Philippine immigration officials because they are in the country illegally.

In this regard, US Senators Patrick Leahy and Richard Durbin should not attempt to enter the Philippines at all. President Rodrigo Duterte has reportedly put the two senators on the immigration watch list and they will be turned back and placed on the next flight to the US if they attempt to enter the Philippines.

The two were primarily responsible for inserting a rider in the 2020 national budget that the US Congress recently passed, and which President Donald Trump signed. The rider bans from entering the US those who were involved in the “wrongful imprisonment” of Senator Leila De Lima.

Incensed, Duterte has ordered Leahy and Durbin banned from the Philippines and has threatened to cancel the no-visa travel privilege for US citizens and to require them to secure visas to enter the Philippines.

There is no truth to the rumor that Leahy and Durbin plan to become TNT in the Philippines. However, Duterte’s bright idea will affect Pinoys who have become naturalized US citizens and have not regained or retained Philippine citizenship.

While the US State Department has not yet issued a list of persons to be banned, De Lima appears to have cast a wide net, including Duterte himself.

“My persecution started with a daily public media demolition by none other than [Rodrigo] Duterte, using all his powers as President,” De Lima is quoted in media. “This was followed by a vicious social media campaign conducted by DDS Trolls, led by Duterte sycophants Mocha Uson, Sass Rogando Sasot, and RJ Nieto. Then came the House investigation where criminal convicts were induced to testify against me in exchange for prison privileges and immunity, if not presidential pardon, as led by former Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez, former DOJ (Department of Justice) Secretary Vitaliano Aguirre, Solicitor General Jose Calida, PAO (Public Attorney’s Office) Chief Persida Acosta, Sandra Cam, Dante Jimenez, Congressmen Rey Umali and Rudy Fariñas.”

Apparently, being banned from entering the US is of great concern for Philippine officials. Aside from missing the attractions of Disneyland and the shopping delights in New York and at Rodeo Drive in Los Angeles, there is the problem of being denied access to bank accounts, real estate, and other unexplained assets hidden in the US.

This was worrisome enough for Rep. Rudy Fariñas, resulting in the following headline on GMA News: “Fariñas denies involvement in De Lima’s arrest.”

Fariñas insisted that that he was not involved in De Lima’s arrest, and unjust detention.

“‘I only participated in the congressional inquiry which she snubbed, but didn’t even get arrested for such,’ Fariñas said. ‘We only filed a case for disobedience to a subpoena issued by Congress, for which she has not been imprisoned as such offense is bailable and carries only light penalties.’”

Fariñas’ denial isn’t too convincing. A Rappler story reported: “Ilocos Norte Representative Rodolfo Fariñas, Capiz Representative Fredenil Castro, 1-Ang Edukasyon Representative Salvador Belaro Jr, and Kabayan Representative Harry Roque all asked inane questions that ranged from whether what Dayan and De Lima had was ‘true love’ to when the two entered the ‘climax’ of their relationship.”

Their sexual innuendoes were too orgasmic to be missed.

The folks at my favorite watering hole in Daly City have been quick to address this issue.

“Remember how we had to wake up at dawn to fall in line at the US embassy in Manila to apply for a US visa?” says Pete from behind the bar.

Others quickly join the conversation: “Remember how we had to gather all the documents proving that we had assets in the Philippines and would have no reason to want to remain in the US after our visa had expired?”

“And remember how being denied a visa was like the end of the world for us?”

“Well, the shoe is on the other foot,” concludes George who had experienced a denial by a US consul who, he said, must have gotten out of the wrong side of bed.

George has friends at the Philippine consulate. “I can hardly wait to see them interview visa applicants who want to visit the Philippines. Sana pahirapan din nila (I hope they give them a hard time).”

”You don’t actually believe that the consulate will give them a hard time, do you?,” cuts in Rudy, a travel agent. “As it is, I can’t get enough tourists to visit the Philippines. If the government adds on visa restrictions we might have no tourists at all.”

“Why would anyone want to visit the Philippines in the first place?” asks Doming, who used to live in Smokey Mountain in Tondo.

“To see the sights. To have fun. To enjoy bargains. Great food. Nice beaches. Festivals. Beautiful and hospitable people. Everything that a tourist wants,” says Dinah who works as an assistant of the tourism attaché.

And then Dinah admits: “Sa totoo lang (in truth), we have to work our butts off persuading people to include the Philippines in their travel plans. It’s just as much fun in other destinations and cheaper.”

“Well, I go to the Philippines to visit friends and relatives,” says Paul. “And my wife and I are planning to retire in the province. I can live a comfortable life on my small social security pension.”

“Filipinos have many reasons to visit the Philippines. Even those of us who are already Americans,” agrees Pete. “But if the government makes it difficult for us to go home, maybe we will not be motivated.”

Paul cuts in. “But we will still visit the Philippines, whether Duterte likes it or not. The Philippine consular offices would be stupid to deny visas to people who want to visit the country. And once there, do you think anyone will bother to arrest you for being an illegal alien? There are thousands of Chinese illegals there and the Duterte government is encouraging more. Tayo pa kayang mga dugong Pinoy (What’s more with us of Pinoy blood)?”

“That’s a big joke, isn’t it?” cracks Jimmy while nursing his beer. “Imagine, American TNTs in the Philippines!”

Someone speaks up from one of the tables. It is Ramon, a media man, “But you must admit, the Philippines has a right to require visas of visitors to the country. Did you know that if you are a US citizen, you need a visa to visit Vietnam? But Pinoys don’t need a visa to go there.”

“I understand the reason Duterte dislikes America is because he was denied a visa when he wanted to visit his girlfriend in the US,” Pete says mischievously.

“Tsismis lang ’yan (That’s just gossip),” says Rudy with a laugh. “But, the fact is, Philippine officials have more reason to want to come to America. Ask their wives and kids.”

And then Rudy adds, amusedly. “According to a social media post, Mocha Uson, who is an assistant in the Malacañang press office and is included in De Lima’s black list, is not worried about being banned from entering the US. She says she’s only planning to go to California.”

If true, this should come as no surprise. Uson, is said to be geographically impaired. She once insisted that Mayon Volcano is in Naga and not in Albay.

 

Greg B. Macabenta is an advertising and communications man shuttling between San Francisco and Manila and providing unique insights on issues from both perspectives.

gregmacabenta@hotmail.com

Memo to your file

By Tony Samson

THERE WAS a time, not more than two decades ago, when memos were addressed to other people and typed by secretaries in the form of paper correspondences, with multiple copies too if individuals other than the addressee needed to be in the loop. “Memo” is short for “memorandum” from the Latin, to bring to remembrance.

The memo covers a wide area of subjects, from promotions and demotions (you will move your office to the broom closet on Monday) to company policies, where to go for outings, corporate performance, and minutes of a meeting.

The written memo has been replaced completely by the e-mail or the more urgent text messages or Viber — see me first thing tomorrow morning. The e-mail message is easier to file and even if deleted, easy to retrieve in the case of investigations of such things as sexual harassment (your blinks are sending Morse code to me — see you in your broom closet) or insider trading — the sell order came right after the excom meeting. The text also registers delivery and its having been read.

With the growing memory capacity (even gadgets remember) of the smart phone, with the cloud adding even more storage space, the reminder or “to do” list has gone beyond the enumeration of chores (body massage at 3 p.m.). The self-directed reminders or “memos to your file” can include coaching tips gathered from lessons learned on trusting others or watching out for certain new promotions.

There used to be in the analog era a real memo to the file which was intended to record certain decisions agreed on and the context in arriving there, including the time and place of the meeting and who cast the deciding vote. This memo was kept in a specially secure filing cabinet to record what really happened and when the time comes, to cover a particular posterior. This practice is popular in political circles at the top, especially when dealing with chiefs who lie routinely.

It is said that memory needs to be practiced like a muscle being regularly subjected to exercises like pole dancing. With the availability of what mnemonics experts call external storage, what the brain does not need to retain within itself, the ability to remember has deteriorated. Thus, telephone numbers now stored in a hand phone directory can be dispensed with as items to keep in the head. Many cannot even recall what their mobile number is — I never call myself.

The memo to the file, once called an aide-memoire, or a memory assistance in the diplomatic area of treaty negotiations, is not a selfie photograph but an admonition of sorts directed at future actions. If Marcus Aurelius had a cell phone, his Meditations would be memos to self — “eat a live frog first thing in the morning and the rest of the day will be blissful.” This is an example in self-direction. Anyway, Aurelius as a stoic loved metaphors.

It is clear that anything that needs to be later retrieved can be in such a personal file. The key is to organize the classification system to know what category we are trying to access. Under “recipes” may be included the one for corporate politics — do not let others know what you’re bringing to the potluck party. If it is redundant, you can just bring it back home.

Aiding the mind with the memo to a file clarifies how we think of certain issues and how we incorporate lessons we have learned in life. The memos add up to guides for action. As in any file, this collection of loves and hates as well as collar sizes for certain brands need to be cleaned up regularly if only to make space for new folders.

The memos to the file, addressed mainly to yourself, can decline in age. There are less things to list down. Do you still need to remember, or be reminded later, about a meeting that did not get anywhere. Except for appointments that need to be kept and meetings with friends and family that can be handled by the to-do list and calendar on the phone, what else needs to be remembered later on?

Aging provides the gift of forgetting or at least remembering only the things that matter… for the file.

 

Tony Samson is Chairman and CEO, TOUCH xda.

ar.samson@yahoo.com

Bushfires reap what Australia’s carbon exports have sown

By David Fickling

AUSTRALIA isn’t what the world thought it was.

A country that markets itself on the basis of its wide-open blue skies, azure waters, and huggable wildlife is suddenly presenting a different face: Tourists in holiday towns, huddled on beaches to get away from the impending fire front; cities choked by orange smoke and falling ash; kangaroos and koalas incinerated as they try to flee paddocks and woodlands. If there was any doubt that this antipodean paradise is being lost, even the town of Eden was evacuated this week with the approach of an inferno reminiscent of the fires of hell.

It’s a rude dose of reality for Prime Minister Scott Morrison, a former tourism-promotion bureaucrat whose lackadaisical, image-obsessed initial response to the fires has caused him to be lampooned on social media as #scottyfrommarketing.

And yet a generation before Morrison came on the scene, Australia was already lying to itself and the world about its role in the climate change that has fueled this disaster. If any goodness can sprout from the devastation of these fires, it will start with a more honest reckoning about how successive governments have sold off Australia’s future for a handful of coal.

The conventional view is the one Morrison put to the United Nations last September. “Australia is responsible for just 1.3% of global emissions,” he told the General Assembly. “Australia is doing our bit on climate change and we reject any suggestion to the contrary.”

That statement relies on a rubbery definition of “responsible.” While Australia’s domestic emissions are in line with Morrison’s figures, exports are another matter. This country is the world’s biggest net fossil fuel exporter after Russia and Saudi Arabia, vying with Indonesia as the No. 1 supplier of coal and with Qatar as the largest shipper of liquefied natural gas.

The roughly 1.2 billion metric tons of emissions from coal and petroleum exports in the year through June were almost three times greater than the total discharged at home, and more than the domestic emissions of any nation bar China, the US, India, Russia, and Japan. Factor that in, and a country with 0.3% of the world’s population is responsible for some 5% of its carbon emissions.

Over the decade through 2017, most developed countries saw domestic emissions decline, and even China restricted growth to a 2.5% rate. Australia’s exported emissions grew at a rate of 4.5% a year, driven by a boom in coal and LNG extraction.

It’s hard to explain to outsiders quite how little this features in the country’s domestic debate. Thanks to the magic of international carbon accounting, fossil fuel exports are conventionally counted toward destination countries, rather than the place where they were extracted.

This methodological quirk is convenient for a country that doesn’t want to look like a climate pariah — but it’s helped to obscure the way Australia has been profiting from undermining global climate targets for a generation. As the residents of burned-out towns and owners of incinerated livestock will know, the warming that results is the same whether the carbon is burned in Australia, or overseas.

What would a more honest policy look like?

While Australia has until recently played a constructive role at multilateral climate forums, its most active channel of bilateral trade diplomacy is almost certainly promoting coal exports around Asia. One reason that Morrison was holidaying in Hawaii when the bushfires turned into a full-blown crisis is that he was taking a break before scheduled trips this month to Japan and India, where an agenda including “broader trade discussions” would likely have focused heavily on hawking Australian coal. (The black stuff accounts for about half of all Australia’s exports to Japan, and three-quarters of the total to India.)

It seems unlikely that even the current bushfire crisis can shock Canberra’s politicians into changing their approach. If it did, though, Australia would get together with its major customers in Japan, South Korea, China, Taiwan, and India — all governments with real if wavering commitments to limiting or reducing emissions — and plan out an orderly transition away from fossil fuels.

That process will no doubt be complex and painful. But the loss of landscapes and livelihoods Australia is seeing is already complex and painful, and it’s just a foretaste of what is to come. With the two degrees or more of warming that the planet is heading toward, Australia’s grain belts will be tipped closer to desert, the Great Barrier Reef will become a bleached boneyard, and fires in holiday towns like those seen these past few months will become routine.

This disaster has been a fall from grace for Australia. Let’s hope that redemption is still within reach.

 

BLOOMBERG OPINION

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